Evening Star Newspaper, July 20, 1930, Page 19

E —— EDITORIAL SECTION he Sunday St Part 2—-8 Pages MUSSOLINI SEEN RUBBING SORE SPOTS OF EUROPE His Support of Peace Treaty Revision Declared Opening Way to Endless BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. ‘T would be difficult to imagine any move at once more daring, more dangerous and in_ itself more in- congruous than that disclosed in Mussolini’s recent interview in a French newspaper, the Petit Parisien. ‘This paper, by the bye, has the larges: circulation, not merely of any French Journal, but of any daily in the world. In this interview the Duce squarely aligned himself and his country on the side of a revision of the peace treaties ©of Paris. This declaration instantly calls into question the whole framework of ex- isting European order and peace. As & move in the great Italian game of undermining and destroying the pres- ent French supremacy on the conti- nent it must be conceded to be both an adroit and, from the French point of view, a dangerous if not a deadly thrust. What Mussolini is up to is obvious The peace treaties resulted in the forci- ble separation from the defeated states of large areas and many millions of people. The victims of this far-reach- ing change were Germany, Austria, Hungary and Bulgaria. After the Rus- sian revolution and the later Russo- Polish conflict, Russia also lost vast territories extending from the Arctic to the Black Sea. Thus from 1920 on- ‘ward Europe has been divided between the nations which were satisfied with the decisions of Paris—France, Ru- mania, Czechoslovakia, Jugoslaviy Poland and Belgium—and those which @emanded revision. Italy Gained by War. ‘The incongruous detail in the Fascist dictator’s gresem maneuvers lies pre- cisely in the fact that, along with the other victor states, Italy benefited at| the expense of the defeated nations, and today holds in the Upper Adige ancient Austrian territory containing a considerable Teutonic population. Be- hind Trieste she has taken other Aus- trian lands which are inhabited by a Slav majority unreconciled to the an- nexation, while at Fiume she possesses $he town which was once the unique seaport of Hungary and is now the object of Southern Slav aspirations. Italy, then, most certainly does not desire a revision of the peace treaties in the sense that Germany, Hungary or Bulgaria asks for it. Any revision based upon the principle of ‘self-determina- tion would mean for the Italians not a gain but a loss of area and popula- tion. On the other hand, the Itallan claim is that Italy came out of the peace conference a victim of her recent allies. The revision of the ce which Italy asks is not a restoration of terri- tories unjustly taken, of which she pos- sesses a fair share, but a redivision of spoils. Nevertheless, the Italian proposal must awaken endless repercussions. In recent months, as, in fact, ever since the Fascist revolution, Mussolini has been making strenuous efforts to bring :!fimg a German-Italian commflltcign ermans agree Lhaf, o) - Tidor must be s‘\f‘p;’nufl’ &4 Bosand forced to restore to Prussia the present district of Pomerelia, former German ‘West Prussia, and to assent to the re- turn of Danzig to German sovereignty. Means New Partition. Poland, strongly backed by France, naturally refuses all such surrender, ‘which would mean for the new republic atill another partition. Up to the pres- ent time in Germany the policy of Sresemann, which envisaged peace and rejected all dangerous adventures, has prevailed. But Stresemann is dead, the German Nationalists are grow stronger and never ceasing to demant & revision of the peace treaties. Musso- lind is thus making an open and delib- erate bid for the suppert of the mon- archical as contrasted with the republi- can elements in Germany. In the same way he is bidding for Hungarian co-operation, for Hungary is resolved to recover the lands taken from her by the treaty of Trianon and bestowed upon Rumania, Jugoslavia Czechoslovakia, all three the allies of Prance. Finally in the Balkins Italy is angling for the favors of Bulgaria, which stifl purposes to recover Mace- donia. That country is now in the main in the hands of Jugoslavia. Ita- ly's chief opponent and France's first friend in the Near East. By contrast all French policy rests upon the resolve to maintain the status quo created by the peace treaties, be- cause any modification must in the end result in enormous accession of German power and in the immediate diminu- tion of the actual territory of the al- lies of France and eventually in the grave loss of French influence and pres- tige. What France fears above all is that the suppression of the Polish Cor- ridor and the union of Austria with Germany would lead directly to the restoration of that German Mitteleu- ropa which was momemntarily in ex- istence during the World War and was at the back of the dreams of many Germans even before 1914. Risky Policy Is Seen. Of course, it must be clear how risky s the Italian play. the Anschluss will be realized and Aus- tria jolned to the Reich, mothing is more inevitable than that Hungary will not joyfully but necessarily fall into If one assume that | Friction. | the German orientation. Nor is it less; | likely that, once this Greater Germany | | has “become a fact, there will be an almost uresistible pressure of the new | German Empire to recover Trieste and thus a gateway on the Adriatic, while | | sentimental and racial considerations | will combine to render the question of | | the Upper Adige acute, | Mussolini is playing for a German al- | liance to break the preseint French su- | premacy on the Continent. So far he | ! has been unsuccessful, because he has failed to detach the Central Europelnk states allied with France and sharing the French determination to maintain |the status quo of Paris. And he has) | been equaliy unsuccessful in enlisting German co-operation, bscause Germany remains bitterly resentful of the Ital- ian desertion of 1914-15. Having so far failed alike at Berlin and in Bucharest, Belgrade and Prague, Mussolini has come out into the open and declared for a revision of the peace | treaties in terms which must arouse interest and revive and strengthen hopes in Berlin, Budapest, Sofia, even in Moscow, where any attempt to upset peace and order and precipitate con- fusion is necessarily welcome. Another Danger Cited. Another danger of the Italian play: Even if Germany should presently joi in, the result would be to replace a weak Austria by a vastly strengthened Germany at the frontier of the Alps and to insure that not Italian but Ger- man influence would presently be pre- dominant from Vienna to Athens. That the new Italian policy might destroy French influence and prestige in Eu- rope is patent, but that Italy can profit by such a game is less clear. Of course, in estimating Itallan pol- icy it is necessary to avoid the error of giving lasting importance to any single man. At bottom the Duce is an op- rtunist and while he seems today to gg making a decisive gesture toward the defeated and dissatisfied peoples, it is just as possible to see in his move a definitive warning to France and to her allies, a warning indicative of the dan- gers which may flow from a further refusal to listen to Ifalian demands. Manifestly, then, the Duce is fishing in troubled waters. He is indulging in a double play, which on the may enlist the dissatisfied powers in a new combination to break down French control or, on the other, at last per- suade the French to listen to Italy and agree to the demands of Rome, which envisage not a revision of the territorial status of the Continent of Europe, but a re-shuffiing of colonial territories, For the moment, dp:rhn , & transfer of the Syrian mandate from France to Ttaly might suffice. B French Position Analyzed. That France will listen to such a threat and make new concessions is, of course, very unlikely. On the other hand the Italian maneuver comes at a very awkward moment for the French. ‘With the evacuation of the Rhineland completed, the French hold on Ger- many has become almost non-existent. Germany is at last free to act and she may seize upon the present Franco- Italian tension, not to associate herself with Italy, but to drive her own bargain D delne; but in a general way we call ourselves poor whenever compelled to reduce our expenses or drop from ore financial plane to a lower one. WASHINGTON, Dok SUNDAY MORNING, JULY 20, 1930. New Light on the Kaiser Noted American Tells of the Life Led by Former Ruler of Germany at Doorn, Holland. KAISER IN UNIFORM IN HIS EXILE. Note—This is the first of a series of three articles written ; 4 insight into the life and Thouonts of the former German ruler, BY POULTNEY BIGELOW. OORN, Holland.—The Kaiser is a r man, and his poverty is doubly keen, for by nature he is both generous and hos- pitable. Poverty is not easy to Napoleon seemed poor in his prinei- pality of Elba, for he had been the ruler of all ‘ope at St. Helana, although still surrounded by servants and courtiers who humored him. In my home town on the Hu son a man is poor if he has no car, and a woman is pitied if dress in ; he seemed poorer she cannot silk. Door Prison fo Kaiser. ‘The poverty of the Kaiser is, there- fore, merely relative—his powers of en- tertaining “have shrunk; make the costly presents that he for- merly did. His disappeared. not know anything of whereabouts, or even existence. All he knew was that the revolutionary mob in .course, he had lost many precious pos- sessions—all keepsakes, etc. he cannot ificent yacht has me that he did its present He tol it had been pillaged b 1918 and, of his uniforms, pi Doorn is & beautiful country resi- dence, in my eyes—for I am accustomed )y | himself. to the homes about Malden-on-Hud- THE KAISER AND HIS WIFE AT DOORN. son. In the eyes of the Kaiser it must seem a narrow prison compared to his former vast estates in different parts of Germany, any one of which would allow him to tramp all day without ex- hausting its limits. Here his radius is little more than the length of one or two transatlantic liners, and if he should stroll beyond his front gate he would be a target for the cameras of | tourists, who now hover incessantly about this pretty village. I am richer than the Kaiser, because I can put more money in the savings bank at the close of each fiscal year; I can dress like a hired man and I can do my own work, and when the Summer boarders come for my auto- graph I can tell them that I'm sick upstal f a contagious disease. And thus I am richer than Willlam II Expenses Run High. ‘Therefore, I repeat that the Kaiser is & poor man; if you first deduct his over- head expenses—his indispensable outlay —before he can spend one cent upon He has 19 dlfl:-nt royal families for whom he considers himself morally nsible since the war and, however simply they manage to live, they never- theless represent a heavy and contin- uous drain upon his purse. Moreover, he cannot help being today the most interesting figure in modern history and a target for innumerable appeals from historians and others of note who seek H(lht on the events of his remarkable reign. He must either leave all such appeals unnoticed or he must spend money out of his own purse in maintaining a ref- erence library or bureau of archives| tu; and secretaries competent in that fleld. A President of the United States, nota- bly such a one as Ulysses S. Grant, was bombarded with requests for informa- tion on disputed points, and this bom- bardment continued long after he had left office. How much more then is this true of a Kaiser, who for more than 40 years has been the subject of controversy throughout the world? Chateau Too Small for Guests. ‘We were shown to a comfortable suite of rooms—a parlor, with two bed rooms adjoining, and, of course, the usual bath room, etc. Our windows gave us on all sides views of beautiful park land—windows that we call French, al- though they are common throughout continental Europe. The Kaiser lodges his guests in a separate bullding, for his own chateau has not the requisite space. ‘This again is relative; but my read- ers probably have in mind a hundred rich Americans whose country hames | KAISER AS HE LOOKED WHEN STILL GERMANY’S RULER. at Newport or in the Adirondacks have 20 spare rooms and who live in an at- mosphere of luxury far beyond that of the present “First Gentleman of Doorn.” At 5 o'clock we all had afternoon tea at the main chateau and were formally presented to the Empress Hermine. The Kaiser' came afoot in the direction of our building a little before tea time, and, of course, I hurried my pace on seeing him. He has a tremendously strong right hand, and, though I appre- ciated the warmth of his welcome, my fingers needed medical massage after the first handshake. He required no introduction to my wife, who dropped him a curtsy like something out of an eighteenth century minuet. That little rn was a surprise for me—she had been practicing it in secret. Presented to Empress. Empress Hermine received us on the steps of the big house, and, of course, I fwgltll’l;a love with her at once. lace, she is She had two of her children h ithout man- point elemrpel:mpl‘l 1 C!llnl{ y & a1 she placed her zuel&nfmmlmly at their ease—and I may add that in the presence of the Kaiser's first wife I was never allowed to forget that she was first, last and all the time the Empress of Deutschland uber Alles, Here my wife dropped a second curtsy of such depth as alarmed me lest her Jhinges collapse—and here- after ‘I sl not _mention this gnly formal matter which has at n vastly less importance than would have “(Continued on Fourth Page.) with France. Laying aside all more pecu: lative comment, however, it is clear that the Italian move has served to bring to the fore once more the whole ques- tion of the existing territorial status and - political combinations in Europe. The possibility that the Continent will ' now settle down for a period of recov- ery and the New Europe of the peace treaties take enduring form is much slighter. Mussolini's voice raised for revision will revive the questions of the Polish Corridor, the per Silesia, Vilna, Bessaral vania and the Banat, Slovakia, Croatia and Macedonia. Deliberately the Duce has rubbed every sore spot in Europe. ‘What must be perceived, too, is that in taking this course the Duce is not in the least interested in the prineiple which he has invoked, which, so far as the Continent is concerned, would if fairly applied result in grave territorial and strategic loss for his own country. ‘What he is doing is exploiting the griev- ances of the defeated nations for Italian ends with the chief purpose of weaken- ing the French situation on the Conti- nent, Europe Arming Again. ‘The justification of Mussolini’s vari- ous moves must be discovered in the patent truth that as long as the exist- ing order endures, Italy cannot play the | role of a great power in Europe or rival French influence. The system of peace which exists in Europe today is a | French system and for Fascist aspira- ‘Illons. for the realization of the dream |of a New Rome, the destruction of the | system is a necessary step. No one can mistake the risks of Italian policy. By the new maneuver Mussolini has made possible, if not cer- tain, the redivision of Europe into armed camps. The peace of Europe is becoming increasingly precarious. More- over, it is a mournful reflection that the recent rapid accentuation of bitterness and unrest is the direct consequence of |the London Naval Conference, designed to advance the cause of peace by for- warding the task of disarmament. (Copyright, 1930.) or less s - Art Jury in Paris Accepts Work Of James G. Bailey, U. S. Diplomat That presidents of leading banks have | of the International Court of Arbitra- aften started their careers as newsboys | ton. 15 & story 50 frequent that nobody thinks | 4o’ of even expressing surprise or admira- But that a man who has been in the diplomatic service ilm ious problem of | tion when it is told. for many years should suddenly make public appearance as a painter gives new angle on this curi profession and avocation. Jabes G. Bailey of K passed through six course of his long Salon in Paris. has submitted one of his paintings to cation. lant speaker. of the rising young men in Kentucky. Gradually through six revolutions, several in South America, two in Portugal and finally the He left Mexico just Before the out- break of the World War he was a mem- ber of the international conference on Ems of exchange at The Hague as well | hairdressing, the unique ruling has not Russian revolution. before the fall of Diaz. s member of the administrative council | been repealed so far. ! entucky, who has revolutions in the i years in the service of the United States ;hl:nutihehssspr]n:?] had a picture accepted by 1 cepted by the SPriNe | has made a_number. a will be the first time that | By e aatings sre hune 1n public, | 10 develop and hias Bdden iself modes Mr. Bailey, a8 @ young man, was con- nected with State politics and with edu- He was principal of a high| school, a professor of government and | literature and thence turned to politics. He served as member of the Kentucky Legislature, in which he was chairman of the committee on education. His rep- utation at that time was that of a bril- He was the best orator | is interests centered to- ward Washington and more than 30 13 years 8go he entered the diplomatic| women with cropped hair to l]n' in service. During his long career he went | the church's choir. “But for 40 years I have been paint- he explained when questioned in his Paris home, whe) e has been liv- |ing for some years, “when other men | went hunting or slung golf clubs across | their shoulders for a day of golf. 1 took y paint box and a sketching block.” Mr. Bailey’s work reflects a profound love and appreciation of nature. His pictures are extraordinarily colorful and at the same time most delicate in color. Trees, sky, water, chiefly inspire his brush. He admits frankly that portraits do not interest him much, although he ‘The Paris Salon | jury is the first to accord official recog- nition of a talent which has taken yea: | Iy until it was mature and ready for the | public. Village Church Choir | Puts Ban on Bobbed Hair | ‘The village of Bremnes near Hauge- |sund on the west coast of Norway |scored a record when the church au- | thorities recently refused to “Cropping and | undulation are an abomination,” says the leader of the church, and though the parish belongs to the state and the bishop has declared that the local coun- ‘cil has no right to censure other peo- ple’s personal tastes in such matters as 12 DISSOLUTION OF REICHSTAG IS HELD NATURAL COURSE Crisis Follows Attempt to Rule Ger- many Without Help of Socialist BY DR. GUSTAV STOLPER, Noted German Editor and Economist. ERLIN.—The serious political crisis into which Germany plunged this week, with the dis- solution of the Reichstag, will have many harmful effects, but it is nevertheless a natural develep- ment in the as yet unfinished process of building up the German state. Germany can be ruled only through an understanding between the bour- geols and the laboring class. The Socialist party represents the largest part of the laboring class. With its help, the parties of the Center created the Weimar constitution and defended it later against the Nationalists. Stresemann Strove for Unity. The late Foreign Minister Strese- mann did much to keep the Right wing of the boufeois People’s party, to which he belonged, together with the Left and to prevent its going over to the _Nationalists. But, under the pressure of an unfavorable economic situation, aggravated by mistakes in financial policy and by an insufficient lightening of Germany’s load under the Young reparations plan, a com- promise between the workmen's de- mands and the bourgeois classes be- came steadily more difficult. The re- sult was the collapse, at the beginning of May, of the Mueller cabinet, which included both Socialist and Bourgeols party members. The government of the new chan- cellor, Heinrich Bruening, who be- Jongs to the Catholic Center, repre- sented an attempt to govern without the Socialists. To this end Bruening desired to gain the support of the Ger- man Nationalists, who were Dr. Strese- mann’s chief opponents. In order to win them to his policies, Chanceilor Bruening extended a program of ald for the agriculturists, who are es- pecially represented by this party, far beyond the measures planned by the Mueller government. Bruening Succeeded at First. Bruening's plan succeeded at first. But his cabinet’s financial policies were quite as bad as those of the Mueller government and they were aggravated by the deepening international eco- nomic depression. Events progressed to the point where Bruening and his min- isters were neither able to defend them- selves successfully against the Socialist opposition nor to attract enough mod- erates to their support from the ex- treme right Wing of the Nationalists, led by Dr. Alfred Hugenberg. The Bruening government’s plan to reform unemployment insurance at a huge saving contained a number of gmd ideas, but also, on the other hand, so many unnecemr{ hardships that it offered the Soclalists many points attack. Still worse was the fact that the government did not dare admit to the Reichstag that the deficit in the budget was actually 1,500,000,000 mar] (about $360,000,000), but clung to the fiction that it was only 800,000,000 (about $192,000,000). On top of this came a series of unpopular and eco- nomically damaging tax proposals, in- cluding & poll tax which contemplal assessing at least 6 marks per capita on all citizens, almost without any re- gard for their economic situation, age or ability to work, ear ks | abundance of hot springs there, provid- ted | Winship reported. Faction. ‘When the cabinet found no majority for this tax measure it tried to put its program into effect through article 48 of the Weimar constitution, which gives the government extraordinary powers in the event that public security is men- aced. But since public security, happily, was not menaced anywhere in Ger- many, this twisting of the constitution aroused justified indignation, and the Socialists moved in the Reichstag that the decree be immediately re- scinded. Bruening refused to accede to Hugenberg's conditions for support- ing the government, hence the majority of the Nationalists voted against the government and the Socialist motion was passed. The chancellor thereupon dissolved the Reichstag under the au- thority of article 48. The people now hope that the new elections will return sensible repre- sentatives to the Reichstag in both the Socialist and Bourgeois groups, who can succeed in reaching an agreement and effecting the financial and eco- nomic reforms that the country needs FRENCH OPINION OF U. S. FOUND HIGHLY FAVORABLE Newspaper Clippings Give Wrong Appre- ciation Due to Crime News and Con- trasts With Uniformity of Daily Life BY GERVILLE REACHE, One of the Foremost Journalists of France. ARIS.—As a general rule the French state of mind toward Americans is not correctly ap- preciated in the United States. ‘The relations between the two countries are somewhat warped by the press clippings transmitted daily. When one opens a newspaper today one sees therein scarcely anything other than crimes and felonies, accidents and incidents, and one might suppose that life consists only of perpetual tragedies, whereas in reality, tragedy is the excep- tion which contrasts with the uni- formity of daily life. Similarly in rela- tions between peoples, what is reported relates mostly to divergences of views, to anxieties and to clouds; uthese re- ports fail to indicate the current thoughts. Now, truth compels the statement that there exists in Prance a veritable infatuation for the United States and a very great curiosity concerning its his- so badly. (Copyright. 1930.) tory, its magnificen$ developm>nt and even its popular tasies. Tceland, world's oldest republic, lying Just south of the Arctic Circle, is pre- paring to hedt its capital, Reykjavik, and at the same time provide power and amusement through the long Winters with boiling water drawn from nearby hot springs. Progress in this undertaking to a point where next Winter the national hospital and a school will be heated and an indoor swimming pool will be established, utilizing the water after it has given up most of its heat, was re- ported to the Department of Commerce this week by North Winship, consul general at Reykjavik. He described it as the first step toward heating all of the capital. ‘The success of this undertaking pro- vides a fresh explanation of the miration which anthropologists and other students of human races and rogress have long expressed for the celanders, who have retained in their isolation the splendid qualities displayed by their ancestors 1,000 years in resisting oppression at home until hope- lessly outnumbered, and then sailing into unknown seas in flimsy ships to find a land where they could live in freedom. Iceland was formed, after a fashion, much as the republic was formed, a volcanic uprising in the th's crust. That accounts for the ing water ranging from warm to boiling in temperature. Experiments looking to the use of this natural resource have been in progress for some years and have shown very favorable results, Mr. Pirst drillings were made two o ago by the Iosandio ‘Engtneesing Asso ciation at Wash Springs, about 2 miles from the capital. Dunal the succeed- |Iceland Plans Heating of Capital Through Utilization of Hot Springs ing experiments the hot water was suc- cesstully used in heating a house, in cooking and washing and in warming the soll. Further investigation and ex- perimentation are planned. Under the plan for heating the capi- tal a pumping plant will be constructed near Wash Springs. It will be bullt underground, and the natural hot water will be conducted first to a large storage tank and thence forced to the city through pipes carefully insulated to pre- vent escape of the heat. At the end of the pipe line a pressure regulator will be installed and connected with electric pumps to be operated according to re- quirements. The line will terminate in an air tank to assure an even flow. Construction of a storage tank in the city to take care of surplus water dur- ing the night, preventing waste and at the same time enhancing the effective- | por, ness of the system, is contemplated | jn¢, early next year. ‘The pipe system in the bulldings to be heated with the spring water, Mr. Winship explained, will be installed in the usual manner, except that the radi- ators will be somewhat larger than or- dinary. The head flow will be fed by an injector and the water will leave the return pipes through a valve which will act to keep the system full. Be- tween the flow and the return a by- will permit the feed water to be mixed ‘with the return water for regulating the temperature in the radiators. ter serving its heating purposes the return water will be directed into the indoor swimming pool. This can be ex- pected to become quite a center of |mpne activity during the Winters, which, with the ground firm underfoot instead of slushy and muddy as in Summer, are ‘The recollection of its decisive inte: vention in 1917 “to assure the sal tion of democracy” evidently still domi- nates all the other sentiments born of post-war difficulties, which difficulties such feats as those of Col. Lindbergh and of Admiral Byrd sufficed to rele- gate to the background in the day’s news. It is especially since these feats that Frenchmen have turned unrestrictedly toward the United States. Many are the books treating of America which have benefited by this e. Since that forerunner, Andre an?Sua'. “The United - States Today”; all new docu- mentation—whether it consists of such political works as Andre Tardieu’s “Be- fore the Obstacle: America and Ou selves,” and Romier's “Who Will Be Master: Europe or America?” or whether it consists of purely literary works such as of Paul Morand, or historical such as those of Firmin Roz—all new documentation is wel- eoltn“e.d as tl::olwml‘ light unt the fi'“‘s‘fi vating spectacle of a great people the process of finding its path and perhaps of “creating in the modern world a new conception of production and of life.” Newspapers and magazines, especially financial organs, are devoting more and more space to.news and comments re- garding the &oliucll, economic and so- cial life of the American people. The bulletins issued by American banks are currently refiroduced and followed by a faithful public, which, by the way, had a large part in the vicissitudes of Wall Street, and in addition a very impor- tant American ecolony entertains in Paris with high French society, in all the artistic, financial or literary fields, close relations which contribute much in the very deep sentiments of amity between ‘the two peoples. Influences on Public. What matters it, after that, if a jour- nalist like “Pertinax,” who professes nationalism, subjects these sentiments to the cold shower of a series of acidu- lated articles, or if the satire of a stage play, as in “The Weak Sex,” is directed to the cosmopolitanism of transatlantic hotels? The vogue in France remains none the less influenced to an extraordinary degree by American films, American ! automobiles and American jazz. Even ore the entry of the United States the war an actor like Charlie Chaplin enjoyed immense popularity in France, where he is still regarded as an unrivaled genius of the films. French customs have been modified much more than is Lylhved generally by what has transpiréd of the mental- ity and the sporting spirit of Americans Veninis ‘Count have ‘Trequentls” beousie ave frequen into the spotlight. o Nevertheless, there will always sub- sist a very great difference ween these two les, both-fond of humor and of co! ty. Whereas the one has formish and decply Tellglous, vhe. ous and deeply re T is individualistic to the highest degree. Frenchman is par excellence the friend of diversity, and he does not fear any longer, as did his ancestors the the seasons of greatest social activity in the isolated island republic, Ganls, that the heavens oSy may fall on ’mem. 1930.) Campaign Is H Than Eve BY MARK SULLIVAN. HE purpose of this article is to say something about the pres- ent state of the times—"“the times” in the business sense— “bad times,” “good times.” As respects appropriateness, the topic hard- ly needs apology; a good many folks are talking about it, thinking about it, writ- ing about it. It is related to politics, to the campaign now on to determine whether the Democrats or the Repub- licans shall control the next Congress. The state of the times, in an economic sense, is always associated with politics. Frequently the connection is forced, un- real, chiefly psychological. We find George Washington, while he was Presi- dent, in one of his letters complaining apprehensively that he was in for a rough period because a current drought was sure to make crops bad. ‘The connection of the present depres- | sion with politics is less than one would normally expect; that is, there is less charging of the depression up against politics than is commonly the case. usually happens. In the 1907 depression (which was much like the present one, excepd chat the 1907 one was accompamied by % currency famine, impossible Mow), thé then President Roosevelt and “big busi-~ ness” went at each other hammer and tongs. Business, especially big business, angry at Roosevelt for many reasons, cha Roeseelt with responsibility for the panic. Roosevelt retorted that business brought it on itself. Business and politics exchanged the usual pot and kettle epithets. Business, charging Roosevelt with the panic, was able to creat a public psy- chology in which an important news- paper calied Roosevelt the ‘“greatest panicmaker in history,” and the New York Sun, able morning newspaper of that day, addressed Roosevelt thus: “Hall, Caesar! We who are about to bust salute thee!” Roosevelt was not the man to let that go by without notice. He retorted in a speech he made at Provincetown, Mass., that big business had brought on the depression itself, had brought it on deliberately. Roosevelt sald that big business was angry at him because of his “trust busting,” and in order to discredit him had precipitated panic. Neither Proved Accurate. Neither the charge made by big busi- ness nor the retort made by Roosevelt was accurate. The depression of 1907 was “in the cards”; it was due to arrive as the resultant of several causes. One of the principal causes was the lack of a national banking system. That lack has since been remedied. We now have the Federal Reerve System. Be- cause we have that this depression has Dot been accompanied and cannot be newt!grnmd by any currency famine. ‘To extent the present depression cannot be as disastrous as the 1907 one. But the 1907 panic was due to come. The wise leaders of finance, the gray- haired old gentlemen who had been in business for more than 20 years, knew it had to come. Any one can look up the New York newspapers of more than & year preceding the 1907 panic and find the venerable Jacob H. Schiff, then , Loeb & Co,, saying that, due to several causes, chiefly the lack of a national banking system, the coun- try was “due for a panic compared to which previous ones’ would seem like child play.” ‘To complete the allusion to the 1907 E:nlc-—the crisis of it, the runs on nks, with the banks unable to give depositors the money that the deposi- tors owned, occurred on October 22, 1907. The ensuing Winter of 1907-08 was geny bad—very much worse last Winter. But by June, 1908, public psychology was fast getting back to no . Roosevelt was able to name Taft as his successor in the Republican nomination for the presidency, and in the Fall Taft was elected over Bryan rather more than a normal major- The Senate and House continued to remain in the hands of the party— the blicans that had been in power is that there is no reason to expect that because of the business depression Congress will be turned over to the Democrats next Fall. One need not be 80 limited, one might put it, with some reservation, that there is no reason to expect that for any reason or all reasons Congress will be turned over to the Democrats. Democratic Ssnate Scouted. Of the two bodies that compose Con- gress, one, the Senate, is about as cer- tain as anything can be in politics to remain Republican—Republican, that is, counting Progressive or insurgent Republicans as part of the Republican majority that organizes the Senate. To put the case in figures, the Dem crats have now 39 Senators out of a| total of 96. To have a majority, to be able to control the Senate for them- selves, and to organize it and control its committees—to do that the Demo- crats would need to gain 10 more in order to have a majority, 49. They cannot possibly do it. None of their leaders expects to do it. In the sena- torial elections next Fall the Democrats might readily gain as many as three. They might even, if there were a tre- mendous landslide, gain as many as six. But they cannot gain 10. And the present fact is that nobody sees any landslide in the making. The net of which is that in the next Senate about the best the Democrats can hope is to have 42, which is seven less than a majority. As respects the House, the conditions favoring the Republicans are not quite 80 convincing: that is, while we can s: with practically mathematical positive- ness that the Democrats cannot gain control of the Senate, the positiveness in the case of the House is not quite 50 mathematical. Yet the writer of this article does not know any Democratic leader who has any firm expectation of his party winning control of the House in tg: November elections. Democratic leaders and Republican leaders both agree that in the House, as in the Sen- ate, the Democrats will make very con- siderable gains. But they both agree also that the gains will " short of enough to turn the House over to the Democrats. The total membership of the House is 435. Making a rough allowance as to a few vacancies existing and regarding the one Farmer-Labor member as a Democrat, there are 267 Republ to 168 Democrats. This is a Republican majority of 99. In order to reverse that majority the Democrats would have to ml minimum of 50 seats. It can ly be done. It would take a land- slide and there is no evidence of a land- slide. The Democrats will e gains, without a doubt in the world, very con- siderable gains. The axims De cratic gain that I have heard any Demo- cratic leader seriously claim or any Republican leader concede, is less than 40. And even if the Democrats should win this maximum of 40 additional seats the Republicans would still have A narrow yet comfortable majority of roughtly, 20. this is without regard to the busi- ness depression. So far as any ol er can see, the depression dogs not figure 2 There is some of it, but much less than | BUSINESS PLAYS LITTLE PART IN CONGRESS RACES Connection With Politics in This Year’s eld to Be Less r Before. much in the calculations of political managers, nor, apparently, in the minds of the voters. For whatever reason the Democrats seem less disposed than is usual with the party out of power to blame the business depression on the party in power. There is less political agitation of this kind, less political cap- italizing of “hard times” than has been the rule during previous depressions. Issue Remains Doubtful. ‘The Democrats for the moment create an impression of uncertaint® on their part as to what issue they expect~to emphasize. Up to the mon.nt of the actual passage of the tariff bill prace tically the whole of the Democratip publicity laid emphasis on the tartm Since that event there has been a defl~ nite and striking.phenomenon, what- ever its meaning pay be. The Demo- crats in an obviyds manner have “laid off” the tariff Not only the Deriocrats. The two l*cgest chains of newspapers in Amev»a, which, while the tariff was pendi*%, lashed it with furs, have had sin~, the bill was passed, almost lit- 7Milly not a word to say about the tariff. What that means is hard to axy. Per- haps it may be recognition uwhat the tariff could not possibly be the cause, or even a cause, of the business depres- sion. In any event we should be able to sex yectty soon just what issues the Democrats expect w ieise avd empha- size in the campaign that shortly will be_under way. To turn from the political aspect of the present expression, to consider it in the light in which nearly everybody looks upon it, to speculate upon how it will express itself in the future state of business, ex-President Coolidge the other day referred to some previous de- pressions and said: “The important fact is that the coun- try went on developing . . . wealth increased greatly.” It would be safe to be even more specific’and more emphatic. The longest period of lowering prices this country has ever known was_from early "10s to the late '90s. Yet it was during just that period that the biggest busi- nesses and the greatest fortunes this country has ever known were built up. It was dul precisely that period that ractically the whole of the early ofl Euzlnus was built up and John D. Rockefeller made not merely the start of his fortune, but quite probably as much as half of all he has today. Not Vere Dull up, It was. during That were. up. It was pe- riod, in spite of some intervals diffi- cult for farmers, that land in the West- ern States rose in value from a few dollars an acre to upward of a hundred. Not to prolong the illustrations, the present condition, do not necessarily make for lack of busi- ness activity or lack of prasperity. One might reasonably assert the contrary— that low prices of goods make for great volume of business. The proof is near at hand. The period just behind us, from 1920 to 1930, was a period, on the whole, of low or lowering prices. Yet that was precisely the period of {rx‘enun prosperity this country has ever own. Trade Gains After Decline. ‘What hnap;m is this: Over long pe- riods, sometimes as long as 20 years or of tend downward. a particular way. It takes the a sudden and rather drastic drop, fol- lowed by several years of roughly sta- bilized prices on the new level. At the end of several years there may be & new and considerable drop, followed again by several years at the new level. ‘The comparatively brief period of the drastic drop is attended by very much reduced volume of business. Thereafter, once the new level is established, busi- ness goes forward with an increasing momentum that becomes something like a fury of activity. That is what has happened during the last 10 years in the United States. About 1920 ‘there was a stringent fall in prices, accompanied by a severe halt in business activity: then ensued nearly 10 years of the greatest volume of busi- ness and the greatest prosperity the country bas ever known. Then came & new drastic drop in prices, in the midst of which we now are. About the duration of this business depression there has been much pre- diction. One would not do a service to add to the quantity of it. But there is present at this moment a concrete condition—the consumption of goods is much greater for the moment than the production of goods. ‘The consumption of many forms of goods is going on almost as usual. That is shown b{l the figures for chain-store sales, which are less than 5 per cent below last year. At the same time the decline in the production of goods, as measured by the reports of manufac- turers, is from 10 to 15 per cent, at least, below last year. ‘What this means, sooner or later, is a sudden realization of a kind of famine in goods, followed by a hurried buying of goods on the part of retailers and other dealers, resulting, perhaps, in & slight elevation of prices over present levels and thereafter, if we can judge by precedent, a new and prolonged pe- riod of constantly increasing business activity at the new level of prices, Tokio’s Slrichance Hall Laws Criticized ‘Tokio's laws strictly limiting the number of public dance halls in the capital and clesing at 11 o'clock at night those which are permitted to operate are characterized as unrea= sonable by the chief of the foreign section of the metropolitan police board. He says that one of the principal rea- sons tourists do not like to stay for long in Tokio is that its night life is drab compared to some of the other metropolises of the Far East. The Kesenu of a few more dance halls in e center of town would provide a wholesome form of entertainment which be: to both residents such forms of entertainment aren’t for public morals and should be allowed just for the sake of a few tourists ~The lon of the chief of the foreign secti was received with pleasure by the general public, although no drastic changes in pol are simliarly con- vinced. i