Evening Star Newspaper, May 18, 1930, Page 31

! Special Articles | Part 2—-8 Pages EUROPE THINKS NAVY PACT END OF BRITISH DOMINION Asquiescence to Three-Power Rule of Seas at London Parley Generally Held to Be Responsible. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. N ALL the many articles I have written about the Naval Conference and treaty of London, I have con- fined the discussion to the Amer- ican standpoint. Did the treaty promise tonnage reduction, construction limitation, Anglo-American _parity? These are the questions about which American_discussion has pretty gen- erally revolved. Turning to the European point of view—and primarily to the opinion of continental states—it becomes clear at once that the basis of estimate is some- what different. Here the meaning of the London pact is set forth in some- what more materialistic terms. In fact, the whole episode seems not an adven- ture in idealism but a shining example of real politik. Great Britain, to the European mind, has made a great and historic renuncia- | tion. In admitting parity on the part | of the American fleet she has, such is the continental judgment, imitated the Roman example, which brought_back the frontfers of the empire to the Rhine and the Danube, abandoning outlying provinces, when the first clear evidences of internal slackening were discovered. Result Believed Sure. These continental critics are little in- terested in the questions which trouble American naval experts, above all in the debate as to whether absolute and ulti- mate parity has been attained. For them the British have agreed to so close an apporach to equality that the result 48 unmistakable. Once for all Britain has abandoned to the United States ab- solute control of the waters of the At- lantic and Pacific Oceans, within what may be described as the American sphere. As Rome retired from Dacla, Britain has withdrawn from both Amer- icas. Her legions, which are her ships, can no longer undertake to defend her old positions. For the traditional British domination of the seven seas there has been sub- stituted a division. As the empire of Charlemagne was divided between the three sons of Louis by the treaty of Verdun, the British Empire of the seas has been split between the United States, Japan and_Britain. North of Singapore, west of Hawali, south of the Aleutian Islands, Jaj has now estab- lished & naval domination which is be- yond challenge. The open door in China perhaps still persists, but the key to the door, and the power to slam it shut, fleets of Britain and the United States, which would insure her a ratio not of 60 _per cent but of a scant 30 per cent. Europe cannot be sure America and Britain have not abandoned competi- tion for condominium. Agreement be- tween Stimson and Macdonald seems not " unlikely to be followed by wider pacts, agreements which enable Britain to withdraw all her commitments in- volved in her membership of the League and seek her security in Europe through an alllance with the United States. This would be a defensive alliance, un- questionably, but an alliance which might permit the British, as well as the Americans, not only to stay out of the next continental war, but to evade the responsibility of underwriting any sys- tem of peace in Europe. Restriction of Fleet. As a result of the treaty of London the British fleet is to be restricted if not reduced, but on the other hand the American fleet is to be enormously in- creased in fighting strength. The result of the Naval Conference is not to be the reduction or even the effective lim- EDITORIAL SECTION he Sunday Star, ASHIN GTON, D. C, SUNDAY MORNING, MAY 18, 1930. Trade Follows Dollar International Banker in Arranging Credits Serves American Industry ad Commerce. itation of the combined fleets of Britain and the United States; united they will be stronger in 1936 than in 1930. And, what is even more significant, while toward each other the relative strength will remain immutable, both are free to build as they choose in the face of the expansion of any non-signatory state. Has Britain abdicated, or has she taken a partner? This is the question Europe asks. If she has abdicated that is an enormous fact in history, the first step in the decline of a world empire. But if she has taken a partner then the English-speaking combination becomes more formidable than was Britain at any period in her brilliant history, But if there is no partnership then what is Britain to do in the face of an equal American fleet defending the tra- ditional policy of neutrality in the next conflict? Obviously the British will not Join in & league blockade against a European aggressor, whether on the Rhine, the Vistula or in the Mediter- ranean, if such action insures a colli- sion with American seapower defending the rights of a neutral, upholding the legal right to trade with the aggressor. And this practically spells the end of the whole principle of sanctions which is the basis of the League system of maintained peace. It not only precludes the making of a Mediterranean Locarno, but it dooms the existing Locarno of the Rhineland. Thus in either case the rest with the Japanese fleet. The area of British supremacy is stul marked by the life line of empire which stretches from the Solent, by way of Gibraltar, Malta, Suez, Aden and Singapore, to Sydney. Retiring from Eastern Asia and the Americas, Britain still clings to traditional domi- nance in European waters and along the line that leads to India, Australasia and South Africa. Against France, continental nations which feel them- selves exposed must see In the results of London not an example to be followed in the way of limitation of armaments, but the necessity to arm still further to make good the lost guarantees which they saw in the British fleet. All the League powers which counted upon the British fleet as one of the bulwarks of peace are now almost inevitably to be thrown back upon their own resources. Italy, Germany, Britain still maintains her’ traditional position, but against America and Japan she no longer holds out. Retrogression in Power. Thus the treaty of London means a distinct, very far-reaching retrogression in British power and prestige. Thus the treaty of London, like the treaty of Verdun 11 centuries earlier, is ac- cepted as a sign of disintegration. In Paris, in Rome, even in Berlin, one talks of the decline if not the fall of the empire which has bulked largest in the European mind since that of Rome. The continent, speaking generally, never believed Britain would yield with- out a struggle. It never imagined that the shock between England and the United States was more avoidable than that between Britain and Germany in the present century or between France and Britain in the last. Moreover, in a ertain sense, the European mind still fuses to credit the appearance as a reality, ‘The continent believes that while Britain has, beyond recall, abandoned the domination of the seas, British policy is engaged not wholly unsuccess- fully in substituting a policy of Anglo- American hegemony for that exclu- sively British. It looks forward not without anxiety to later negotiations which may result in the adoption of identical policies by the nations which are henceforth to have equal fleets. Nor is this possibility wholly absent from the Japanese mind. The very insist- ence upon the 70 per cent in_ place of the 60 per cent ratio has been ex- plained in certain continental journals as having its origin in an apprehension that, in the day of crisis, Japan might Blow to League Machinery. By increasing the hazards for the British of any attempt to use their fleet to restrain or coerce a European ag- gressor the treaty of London has struck & heavy blow to all the League machin- ery for keeping peace. All this might have been avoided could the United States have been persuaded to enter a consultative pact, to implement the Kellogg pact to the extent of agreeing to respect League disciplinary operations against a proved aggressor. But the consultative pact found no adoption in London and little favor in America. In sum, if after London no adjust- ment can be discovered between Ameri- can and League conceptions, then it is patent that little value will remain for exposed nations in the covenant clauses providing joint action and thus sketch- ing mutual support. And once this con- viction sinks home, we shall have not a reduction but an expansion of all mesns of national defense, armies as well as navies. As the European states increase their navies, Britain is bound to follow suit to maintain the two-power standard and we must imitate to pre- serve parity. That is why on the continent the treaty of London seems, to use the con- ventional American phrase, a step, & step not in the direction of disarmament but into the dark. That is why Ameri- can parity appears not a promise of peace, but, indirectly to be sure, a blow 1o the system of peace already painfully and all too slightly established: that is why privately, not publicly, European and even British champions of the League of Nations see London as a disaster, not a gain, for Geneva. And herself confronted by the combined (Copyright, 1930). India and China Are Called Century From Self Rule by BY SUZETTE G. STUART. India and China are from 50 to 100 years away from a democratic form of government, according to the Rev. Rob- ert G. Boville, international director of the World Association of Daily Vacation Bible Schools, who has returned recent- iy from a six-monii tour of India and the Orient in the interests of the or- ganization. The tour included London, Paris, Cairo, Palestine, Calcutia, Madras, the Malay States, the Philippines, Korea, Japan and China. Dr. Boville was ac- | companied by George Morris Bleakley, | an attorney, of Ottawa, Canada. | The sincerity of Gandhi is not to be doubted, declared Dr. Boville after a| personal interview with the reformer. | “Every white person in India belleves | in Gandhi’s sincerity,” he said, “but| India as a nation has not yet the ability | of self-government. The soclal habits | of the natives are destructive of the morale of the people as a whole. Thcy | are a people of ideals and highly imagi- | native, but they are physically incom- | petent and depleted and are unable tc | carry_through the preparations neces- | sary for establishing a democracy. “To call China a republic is to make | an absurd use of th> word. The gov-| ernment is really a small group domi- | nating 400,000,000 neople. The power is in the central committee of the Kuo- mintang, the Socialist party organized | by Sun Yat Sen.” | An outstanding object of the World Association of Dally Vacation Bible Schools is to combat the illiteracy in many countries of the world, especially &t present in India anl Asia. “Oountries with millions of flliterate children must necessarily retard the ultimate culture and peace of the whole world,” said Dr. Boville. “Among the 70,000,000 illiterate children of India provision exists for the schooling of only 8,000,000. Through the national Bible School Head deavor especially to meet the problems of the child widows in the district and instruct them not only in the elements of reading and writing, in memorizing Bible verses and simple songs, but also will teach them simple sewing. latter is a radical measure, as it is contrary to the caste custom of India, which_provides that men do the sew- ing. The child widow problem is vast, with 335,000 little girls from 5 to 15 years old {lliterate ane ignorant of any trade or occupational resource.” In China notice was served upon Dr. Boville by the Kuomintang that the Daily Vacation Bible Schools must be registered, so as to be under govern- ment control. Investigation showed that the Bible schools could be desig- nated as “classes,” as they did not offer an all-around education pro- gram of instruction, and that thereby they would come under the jurisdic- tion of the churches and be free from government supervision. “Although not more than 3,000,000 childrern are being taken care of by the government schools,” said Dr. Boville, “the authorities would rather con- tinue this inadequate provision than receive outside educational rellef from schools not under their control. At least they have not gone as far as the Soviet government, and have not vet prohibited religious instruction to chil- dren under 18 years of age.” Hawaiian Conditions Studied by Chicagoan Dr. Edward H. Ochsner of Chicago, | member of the crime commission of that city, was in Honolulu with Mrs. Ochsner for a few days' visit recently. Though on a vacation, he utilized the opportunity to study social conditions in the islands. Recently Gov. Judd committee of the World Association na- tive students from the colleges and uni- versities conduct daily school sessions during the Summer for the untaught children in various district:;, From the first of this May firougn June four new schools will be conducted in the Gora- very district, on th> east coast of India. ative students will teach the children. ng the langnage. e named a commission to study the sub- jects of crime and delinquency, includ- ing juvenile delinquency, and Dr. | Ochsner is interested in the work | which this commission has just started. He said that one of the most construc- BY FRANCIS H. SISSON, Noted New York Banker. RADUALLY the idea is being forced upon American con= sclousness that the problem of foreign trade is a two-sided affair; hl:llt rt:!e ]{u&y of . first part and the party of e second part gfil have interests which must be served, and that only as mutual advan- tage is furthered can profitable rela- | the | abroad is an ambassador for American ‘What Condi N I tions be maintained. This readjust- ment in viewpoint has come since the war as one of its many far-reaching consequences. We have discovered that it is not enough for us to fall back on the nega- tive policy of "live and let live”; that ‘we must live and help live if we are to enjoy the fullness of life ourselves. We have learned also that our rap- idly increasing production of both raw materials and finished products must have outlet in foreign markets or we shall have stagnation at home; that the margin of our exports abroad is the margin of our profit at home. ‘We see dally illustration of the truth that we gain only as we give, and that no nation today liveth unto itself alone. This may sound like a lecture in mor- als, but in reality is a hard lesson in economics which we are slowly learning. The international banker, in arrang- ing credits for foreign countries or in- dustries, is serving American producers of all classes in the most direct and effective way. Foreign loans make busi- ness at home. Every dollar that goes business and a salesman for American goods. ‘The world's trade today is passing through the most severe and most wide- tions Show. spread depression since the post-war deflation of 1921. In almost all the important commercial nations of the world, industrial activity is at a low ebb, unemployment is large, commodity prices have declined sharply and money rates have fallen, in many cases to ab- normally low levels. Yet, exceptional as the situation is, we find important differences between the positions of various countries. In some nations, particularly those which depend in large measures upon the for- tunes of one commodity, conditions are very discouraging. In other cases the recession in business has been compara- tively mild. Again, some countries have been depressed for a considerable time and are now showing signs of recovery, while others appear to be still in the early stages of the reaction. The variation in time and intensity between business fluctuations in differ- ent countries is one of the reasons why American business men are laying in- creasing emphasis on the importance of developing foreign outlets for their goods. Such outlets not only increase the total volume of their business, but stabilizes it as well. When an impair- ment of purchasing power reduces sales in one country better conditions in some other markets will prevent the slump from becoming as severe as it ‘would be if the volume of sales depend- | ed entirely on conditions within a nar- Tower area. Foreign trade returns, therefore, are being closely watched, particularly since last November, when the effects of gen- eral business recession, excessive ab- sorption of capital for speculative pur- poses and declines in prices of com- (Continued on Fourth Page.) Issues Dividing Europe Two Opposing Sets of Alliances Between Natives of Continent Are in Prospect. BY PAUL SCOTT MOWRER. S Europe, under the unhealthy stimu- | lus o?ehench—!ulun tension, be- ginning to coalesce into two oppos- ing sets of alliances, just as prior to 19142 This is the question which, following the difficulties of the five-power naval negotiations in London, the scant re- sults of Forelgn Minister Arthur Hen- derson’s efforts to get Foreign Minister Aristide Briand of France and Foreign Minister Dino Grandi of Italy together within the last few days at Geneva, Italy’s direct challenge to France wit a large mew naval building program, France's tacit intention to reply in kind, and last, but not least, Premier Benito ‘Mussolini’s peculiarly arresting speeches in Northern Italy a few days ago, all responsible statesmen are now asking themselves. On one side, according to this new and somewhat startling perspective, would be Prance and its continental allies; on the other side, Italy, Ger- many and their allies, with Great Britain trengthening its extra-European tles and trying to hold the balance between the two continental groups, and with Soviet Russia always just in the back- ground, presumably ready to try to ex- ploit any likely chances of trouble any- where. Alliances Already Exist. The Prench system of alliances al- ready exists, and has existed for several years. It includes all the continental countries, which are primarily inter- ested in keeping the present frontiers unchanged, notably France, Poland, Czechoslavia, Jugosiavia, Belgium and Rumania. _ These countries together form a well-armed group of 124,000,000 people, to which in certain circum- stances would be added Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Greece, with 12,500,000 more. Since 1918 this group has completely dominated the continent in the sense that it has effectively prevented any ef- fort to break the peace treatles or change the new frontieers by force. Germany, indeed, showed signs of chal- lenging the French system for a time by means of a sort of siliance with Soviet Russia, but ufig“ t.’;ecgm mann regime this policy W for one of rapprochement with France. Wants More Territory. Italy, after supporting the idea of stability for uvepn.\ years, has grad- ually veered to the opposite side. Italy wants more territory. 1t Wants African colonial lands, and it wants France to withdraw French backing from Jugo- slavia and admit the predominance of Ttalian interests in the Adriatic and the Balkans. Its policy has consisted stead- ily in taking such measures as seemed to say to France, “Make ons to us, or you will have to reckon with us s String the last few years Italy, as an attempted counterpoise to the French system of alliances, has grad- jaly, constructed &s"own close under: its own, based on its O\ - standings, first with Hungary and Tur- key, then with Bulgaria and now lately |tive moves made in recent years in | treatment of crime is the Illinois law providing for the segregation of those whose m-=tal defiriency is such that it with Austria. All these, however, form a block of only 61,000,000 people, much BENITO M Premier of Italy, Whose Recent D sort of a tle-up with Germany. Dur- ing Dr. Gustave Stresemann's lifetime the Germans were wary in this respect. | It is whispered in diplomatic circles | that Germany has at least twice within | two or three years definitely rejected Italy’s advances. 5 Now, however, that Dr. Stresemann is dead, a conservative government in power in Berlin and the Rhineland about to be evacuated, Germany has sent a naval squadron on a visit to Italian ports, where it has been en- thusiastically received, and it is vague- ly sensed in European chancelleries that Berlin and Rome are drawing closer together on the basis of opposi- tion to the French block and in favor of territorial revisions respecting both colonies and the continent at the French group's expense. If Germany and Lithuania are added to the Italian formation thus it would mean a block of 141,000,000 people Jess well armed than the French group. For full success of the Italian ma- [USSOLINI, elcarations Are Worrying Nations. Soviet Russia’s 112,000,000 might also be thrown into the balance on the side of those favoring a change, though this might in some respects be an un- welcome addition, for it might force Great Britain to lean with its full weight on the French side. ‘Wants Revision of Frontiers. In any case, Premier Mussolini has now openly declared himself in favor of revision of frontiers. It is under- stood by every one that he does not mean that Italy is prepared to cede back to Austria territories that Italy gained from Austria in the World War, but that Italy is ready to support the idea of changes at the expense of the so-called French group. This, of course, is a direct challenge to France, just as is Italy’s new naval program. Nor is that all. In a series of speeches during the last few days, Premier Mussolini has not minced words. At Livorno (Leg- ready to seize the first opportunity to | change the frontiers against the will horn) he said, and his words were re- produced significantly by the entire “There 1s something fatal, divine and ineluctable in the Italian people’s march toward greatness * * * before this sea, this sea which is ours, after visiting your dockyards where diligent workers are building future wll‘lhl'rz. I tell you, and not you alone, but entire Italian people and also the na- tions beyond our frontlers, “that we want no hasty adventures, but that if any one should threaten our independ- ence and our future, he does not yet know to what temperature I would raise the whole Italian people (en- thusiastic cries from the crowd: “Duce! Duce!”), he does not know to what for- midable temperature I would raise the passion of the whole Itallan people if the Black Shirt revolution were hindered in its development. “Then the whole people, old men, children. peasants, workers, armed and unarmed, would be a single human mass, and more than a mass—a meteor, which could be hurled against any one anywhere (wild applause) * * * “People of Livorno, your wealth and fortune are on the sea. To whom be- longs the glory of the sea? (‘To us! shouts the crowd) So be it in the name of the martyrs of our revolution.” Urges Officers to Be Fit. At Lucca, May 12, addressing the reserve officers of that city, he said: “In case of a war toward the East, iflu must be morally and physically £ By “toward the East” every ome in Italy understands France's ally, Jugo- slavia. ‘The same day, in accepting from a soldier a little Italian flag which had been carried in the World War in the Plave campaign, he said: *This flag will cross other rivers vic- toriously.” Such speeches are interpreted by France as an attempt at direct intimi- dation and are considered to make ne- gotiations with Ttaly almost impossible for the time being. ‘The French reply to Italy fnds, there- fore, to be on the one hand the slowing down of negotiations and the continua- tion of French naval building on a ratio superior to Italy’s, and on the other hand a vigorous pursuance of the French aim at rapprochement with Germany and the establishment of at least a partial European economic fed- eration, which, in the French view, would give Germany full satisfaction and render territorial changes unneces- sary. Course of Berlin. It is by no means clear, meanwhile, what course Germany intends to adopt. After ripe consideration, Berlin has de- cided not to break its friendly rela- tions with Moscow. It is certainly listening more cordially than hereto- fore to Italy’s “siren” voice, but on the other hand there is mo indication for the present of the relaxation of good Franco-German relations. ‘Then there is Great Britain, whose intervention tends to be decisive and whose future course is also not clear. True, the British Labor government has publicly broken its entente with France and shown itself not unsympathetic toward the Itallan naval claims, but there is every reason to believe that Great Britain desires above all things avoldance of serious trouble in Europe in the next few years at least. It has CAMPAIGN WAGED TO TARIFF BILL UNPOPULAR Raskob’s Choice of Capable Man to Handle Publicity Given as Cause of Probable Success. BY MARK SULLIVAN. this tariff bill is good rt of the question. that part will never be answered. In the literally billions of words that have been printed during the year and & month this bill has been pending, has any one ever read a word from a per- son who had sat down in the spirit of a judge, without bias or preoccupation, to analyze the bill and pass disinterested judgment upon it? Has not practically every utterance come from a person who began with a conviction, one way or the auw; and argued to support his posi- lon And if some rare soul should sit down in such a spirit, from what point would he start? Would he begin by accepting the principle that, for America, protec- tion is a sound principle? Or would he begin, as some of the political economists do, with the assumption that free trade is the economic all-good? In either event the net of it is that every reader of this article will hear from speakers, or see in his newspapers during the next four months, many words about the tariff, about what has been done during this long tariff ses- sion. But rarely or never will he see a word that is judicial, that is not argumentative. The question whether this tariff bill and the work of this tariff session is or was good or bad will not be answered. For the purposes of politics, of the coming campaign, it does not matter whether the question is answered. In politics the important and decisive question is not whether a tariff is good, but whether it is pop- ar. ‘That question will be answered. The strong probability is it will be answered in the negative—the tariff bill will be is one p: Probabl, Michelson's brother is Albert Abraham, He is the sclentist who makes discove eries in the filed of light waves and velocity of light, and has honors from practically all the important universities and learned socleties in the world. The sister, Miss Miriam Michelson, has been known for 25 years as an author; her “In the Bishop’s Carriage” was one of the conspicuous best sellers some 20 to 25_years ago. Dr. Charles Michelson’s genius is for the thing he is now doing. As a crowd rouser through the medium of pen and ink, he is the daddy of them all. Thirty years or more ago he was an associate, at once pupil and confrere, of Arthur McEwen, in San Francisco, and every old-time newspaper man knows who Arthur McEwen was. Many of them are of the opinion that McEwen, and per- haps Michelson also, was the man who showed Hearst how to do it when the latter was beginning his career in San Francisco. So we can take that for granted. The tariff will be made unpopular. The point about Mr. Michelson is that he will write the anti-tariff arguments in terms that the public will understand, and terms that will cause the hair on the back of the reader's neck to rise in belligerence. Because Mr. Michelson writes things that people will read, it follows that the newspapers print them. Even the Republican newspapers rrint them. A Republican who traveled through the New England States not long ago came to Washington startled to have found Mr .Michelson’s pungent anti-tariff arguments on_ the front pages of orthodox Republican newspapers. Mr. Michelson’s stuff was almost the only matter dealing with the tariff that these newspapers were printing, the Republicans were not sup- plying them with any equivalent. unpopular. It will be unpopular be- cause it will be made unpopular. The reason is that the forces that want it made unpopular are more energetic and resourceful than the forces that want it made popular, When Will Hays was | chairman of the Republican national committee he had an aphorism. His axiom of politics ran: “Things don't happen; they are brought about ‘That adage applies to popular moods as well ale«;.o lnyt.h“ ing else,h]'lrhu axiom, in- , applies especially to popular moods, to political states of mind. Raskob Introduces Simple Rule. A chief reason why this tariff bill will be made unpopular is that John Supplying Material Is Art. ‘The truth, of course, is that it is an art to supply material about the tariff that the newspapers will print. Prob- [ ably it is more difficult to write inter | esting things on the pro-tariff side than on the anti-side. On the anti-side the { formula is more simple. From 20,000 items, one here and there can be picked out and can be detached from its asso- ciations, from its place in a scheme of compensatory duties. Its effect on the reader’s pocketbook can be po; in | terms that make it look like the income Raskob is a good chairman of the Democratic national committee. Some Democrats don't think so. Senator Simmons, for reasons not associated with the tariff, thinks Mr. Raskob is a very bad chairman, and from time to time publicly invites him to take his bat and leave. Nevertheless, Mr. Raskob, as Demo- cratic national chairman, has brought into politics one of the simplest and most fundamental rules for success in big business. The rule is: “Hire good | tax combined with the installment pay- | ments on the automobile, | _All that Mr. Michelson will do. The | reader, during the next four months, will see millions of words. Sometimes it will appear to have come from the mouths of distinguished Democratic statesmen-—but Charley Michelson will hnxe : 0!&& ;f('lch n elson were not the two biggest strings of chnnmmnm papers in the United States have quite obviously decided to dedicate themselves to the anti-tariff side of the argument. Their cartoonists are assembled in pla- men, pay them good salaries, supply them with ample resources—and then g0 away and leave them.” ‘That is what Mr. Raskob has done about the principal between-campaigns function of a national committee. Dur- toons; their writers in regiments. ite assuredly the machinery is all .Q'“l to make this tariff extremely unpopular. Indeed, the machinery has been under way for several months with high effi- ing the months between active cam- paigns—and, for that matter, while campaigns are under way—the chief function of a national committee is to put before the public the right kind of publicity—that is, in the present case, anti-Republican publicity. ‘That function being before Mr. Ras- kob, he did a thing characteristic of the best in big business. Soon after together with his associate, Jouett cui\x;cy. aybe it will go wrong. It could wrong in any one of several ways, - Supe pose the public this Fall shouid decide to get excited, and subsequently vote, not on the tariff but; for example, on prohibition. That would be fatal to the Democrats two ways. It would send their tariff ents to the junk heap and it would most uncomfortable in many States where the first desire of Democratic lesaders is to forge! Shouse, sought out in Washington the ablest correspondent connected with a Democratic newspaper. This object of search was found in the person of Charles Michelson, The right man being found, Mr. Ras. kob employed him, having some dif- culty, use an association with news- paper work as long as Mr. Michelson’s is not lightly severed. Mr. Raskob employed Mr. Michelson, provided him with ample resources and surrounded him with conditions de- signed to enable him to function ef- cently—and, therefore, to be happy. And Mr. Raskob, having done that in the course of the day's work, took him- self off to Europe—and left Mr. Michel- son on the job of making the tariff bill unpopular. Which job means, unless something intervenes, electing Demo- %}ic Senators and Representatives this 't the cleavage between wet and dry within that party. Another thing could happen. It is quite within possibility that by next October business may be very satisfac- tory. One sound judge within the writer's acquaintance thinks that busi- ness will be very much improved by October and will be perfectly satisfac- tory by December. The election comes in early November. By that time it is & possibility, certainly, that business may be as comfortable as it was in any average month during the past seven years. If things should turn out that way, all the Democratic genius in the world won't be able to make the public think this tariff bill is or was bad and won’t be able to get the people excited on the tariff at all. And, of course, there are sther pos- sible events that might lift this tariff bllll I;}ut of the arena of the coming elections, ‘That was for politics an extraordinary act on Mr. Raskob's part; for business, of course, it was the most normal thing in the world. The writer of this article has watched many national commit- tees of both parties selecting employes over a long period. When a national committee is about to expand its activi- tles, not one time in ten, hardly one time in a hundred, do they go out and look for the kind of man they want, and work to fet him. In nearly all cases they employ some one who applies for the job. And, as in every field of life, the persons who apply for the job —especially a job of short tenure— are persons no. already employed. The permanent staffs of both national com- mittees include men of ability, whose usefulness is high and indispensable, because they are the permanent cus- todlans of the party’s machinery— c en come and go. But when a chairman of a national committee is about to take on a new man, the rule is to employ persons of the type Bryan had in mind when he was Secretary of State and sought jobs for “deserv- ing Democrats"-—a deserving Democrat being one who had consistently voted three times for Bryan. New Idea in Politics. ‘That Mr. Raskob should survey his own function as national chairman, should intelligently and accurately pick out the most important function under him, and should then take ynlns to get the best possible man in the country for that function—that is something new in politics—new and very effective. As a result of it the Democratic na- tlon committee has made this tariff bill already unpopular and will make it more so. The Republicans, or any others who believe this tariff bill is good, have hardly a chance. Mr. Michelson, who invents, incites, writes, perfects and distributes the hymns of hate against the tariff bill now and recently blanketing the United States, is a genius. He is one of a fam- ily of geniuses, In the current “Who's Who” are two brothers and a sister (and also a fourth, a nephew) of the Michelson family. (How many other families have this many, or even more than one, representatives in this blue ribbon list of achievement?) Mr. out being obliged to face dangerous European complications. 1f, therefore, Franco-Italian tension continues to develop toward a point at which Great Britain seriously con- siders European peace endangered, it is doubtful if Great Britain's interests at the last moment will allow it to side with the group which favors terri- torial changes against the group which Heavy Going Faces G. O. P. Tariff or no tariff—even if the tariff should be out of the campaign com- pletely—the Republicans are destined to have heavy going. They will have heavy going regardless of their merit or demerit. There is nothing stra; about that. It is striotly ':'h! \I-l?l‘l} thing. In a presidential election, as in 1928, one party or the other wins heavily. Through winning heavily in the presidential election, it carries into office an exceptionally large number of Senators and Representatives. Then, two years later, as this year, come the mid-term elections. Always’ the party that swept the high tide in the presi- dential election ebbs back in the mide term elections to Senate and House. That has happened over and over. I suspect, without investigating carefully, there has rarely or never been a nor- mal exception to this rule. It will hap- pen this year. For example, the Republicans in 1928 elected a considerable number of Rep- resentatives in Virginia, Kentucky and elsewhere in Southern or border States from districts that never, since after the Civil War elected Republicans. That, of course, was abnormal. Almost. surely some of those districts will swing back to their normal Democratic moor=~ ings this Fall. The Republicans need not and will not be dismayed to lose a considerable number of members of the House. Their pregent majority there is about 99. They could lose roughly 25 seats to the Democrats and still have a ma« Jority of 50. The real menace to the Republicans is what will happen if their majority in the House should be reduced to 50. There are in the House some Republi- cans of the same type of thought and of the same temper as the Insurgent Republicans in the Senate. These Re- publicans in the House have not, how- ever, formed & bloc. Whether they should be disposed to or not, they could not, by uniting with the Democrats, overcome the present majority of 99. If, however, the iblican majority in the House were reduced to 50 or less, the Insurgent Republicans might be able, and certainly would be tempted to, form a bloc which, by combining with *the Democrats, could comj & ma- Jjority. This temptation always exists in such a situation. It is ever a temp- tation for a small group of men to combine and become the balance of power. By doing so they achieve an importance they could not normally have. In this possibility, rather than in an actual Democratic majority, lies the menace to the Republicans in the