Evening Star Newspaper, May 4, 1930, Page 37

Special Articles Part 2—-8 Pages “ESCALATOR” CLAUSE HELD BOND UPON U. S. Tense Franco-Italian Situation Is Seen as Direct Threat to Treaty for Naval Holiday. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. INCE the already famous “escala- tor” or “escape” clause now has become the central point in all discussion of the naval treaty of London and will play a con- siderable part in the debates in the United States Senate, speclal value attaches to the origin of this provision. In April of last year, it will be re- called, Ambassador Gibson, speaking at an arms conference meeting at Geneva, boldly asserted that the policy of the United States was not mere limitation, but out-and-out reduction. This speech ‘was taken, quite correctly, as indicating & desire on the part of the newly in- sugurated President to reopen the Anglo-American naval issue which had lepl(llgd the deadlock at Geneva in The change of administration in ‘Washington was followed by an even more spectacular change in London.”| when a Labor government headed by Macdonald replaced the Tory cabinet of Baldwin. But whatever the outcome of the general election in Britain had been there would have been a response to the Gibson gesture, and had Baldwin and not Macdonald triumphed the Con- servative prime minister would likewise have come to America. Macdonald's Course. Once Macdonald was in power he parallel conversations. On the e hand he discussed with Ambas- sador Dawes American views, on the other he considered with the British admirality the necessities of British security. Out of these latter discussions emerged the figures which were later to go under the name of Rapidan agree- ment. Asked for a statement of the minimum requirement for national defense, the British admirality fixed upon 50 ships and 339,000 tons in cruisers, the single branch in which there had been Anglo-American dis- sgreement. But what was never set forth to the American public was the double fact that the admirality figures were once fixed and conditional. They were ing, but 2| the' sim) by this wholly unparalleled device. On the one hand, not a few American critics have observed that this is actu- ally a trick on the part of the British to evade parity and to continue su- premacy; on the other, friends of the treaty have argued that the “escalator” clause is of little importance because there is small chance that it will eger be invoked. Both conclusions seem to be unfounded. On the one hand, nothing which happened at London seems to me to warrant any suspicion that the British are seel to evade parity. For them the “‘es itor” clause is purely and simply a means of retaining that two- power standard, which is the basis of their traditional security in Europe. But on the other hand, as things now stand, it is almost certain to be invoked and that within two years. This neces- sity must arise as a result of the state | of Franco-Italian relations. ‘The black spot of London was that it accentuated Franco-Italian bitterness and left the Italians determined to build as they could and the French to keep an advantage of at least a third, roughly 240,000 tons, over Italy. us, unless financial collapse or political up- heaval stops Italy- d neither is likely today—France must fulfill her program with the result that Britain must invoke the “escalator” clause probably not later than 1932. None Modifies Own Security. ‘What the American people see too inexactly is that while no European country is concerned directly with American naval strength and while the British are perfectly ready to agree to rity, not a single European state, ning with Britain, is ready to mod- ify its own policies of national security to enable us to have parity with Brit- ain cheaply. Moreover, the claim made by certain champions of the London treaty that events at the conference made Franco- Ttalian adjustment likely is demon- strably untrue, Negotiations to th end will go on with Britain participat- the promise of success is nil for ple reason that both countries are equally resolved to resist the policy fixed in the sense that Macdonald was informed in advance of his Washington excursion that the admirality would refuse to sanction any lowering of this estimate; he was also notified that this estimate could only be maintained if it proved consistent with the preserva- n of the two-power standard ngth axclusive of the United States. Conditions of Figures. ‘What Macdonald then had to tell the President at the Rapidan was that 50 ships and 339,000 tons were the lowest level Britain could accept in cruisers and that this level was to be ©f neither of these Macdonald - ments was appreciated fully in Wash- . In official circles there was the conviction that the British figures were only an opening bid and would be re- duced. And there was equally firm be- lef that even in the unlikely event that France and Italy falled to bow to American wishes Britain would set Anglo-American friendship above her own le':urlty and stick by the Rapidan But no sooner had the conference in Zo.>n opened than it become obvious that France—and Italy as a conse- Quence—was not prepared to modify her naval program, save as she was spokesman of the British foreign office that either French fig- ures must come down or British would have to rise, irrespective of the Rapidan @greement. Unlted States Worked Desperately. In this situation our del ites set to ‘Work desperately to lchle'l:':n: of two things—to persuade the French to re- duce their figures or to persuade the British to agree to stand by the Rapidan figures, no matter what the French did. Inevitably both endeavors ended in Sinee Pra ice nce would not come down ond Britain would not stand still in the face of French expansion, what was to be done? The British admiralty pro- posed that in the treaty there should 8t once be added 85,000 tons to the Rapidan figures, 50,000 tons being al- lotted to destroyers and 25,000 to cruis- ers. Such increase would balance the announced program of the French, and the French were quite willing to agree to stay within their program, unless l!l:lf‘;n building went to totally unlikely But the American delegates were squarely opposed to any such course, because it at once would destroy the illusion of the Rapidan and abolish all chance to claim reduction or limita- tion as achievements at London. Thus lem was to find a means by ;1'21: ‘B"I:‘tls;l‘nfrec;dom to build, in the of e nch program would not be impaired, and at the same time for that period during which the treaty was being debated in the 'Senate the ‘R;gfim figures would seem to stand The Clause Was a Way Out. Hence the “escalator” clause, which Permits any signatory to raise the limit of building in any category, provided it is alarmed by the progress of the con- struction of any non-signatory power. This means in simple terms that when the Prench program reaches the point ‘where it exceeds the two-power stand- ard level of Britain, Britain may at once resume building, simply notifying Tokio and Washington of her decision. In such a case the United States and Japan can imitate the British. They can build more destroyers if Britain bullds destroyers, more crulsers if Britain elects cruisers, but the signi- ficant point is that the character of American and Japanese building will be determined by British necessities. All Britain has to do is to decide that French, Italian or, for that matter, Slamese building is a menace and start construction to any extent she may de«ie_tl;mine. ere was grave apprehension at London among the American delegates about the ultimate effect of the “esca- lator” clause upon the fate of the treaty. All clearly perceived that with such a provision it was not possible to claim for the treaty any character of & binding agreement limiting construc- tion for six years. Thus modified, the treaty was at best a gentleman's agree- ment, terminable in its vital circum- stance merely on notice. Therefore, in the last days of the conference Mr. Stimson was directed from Washington to ask the British to renounce the “escalator” clause to insure the passage ©f the treaty through the Senate. Cabinet Went Against Him. ‘To this Macdonald at once egreed. But his cabinet refused to suppt him, “and the con lon was withdrawn. Two conclusions have been prodiced | called of the other. Italy will not abandon her claim for parity or France concede it and there is no“mldze t’:mb“:\ldd?fi compromise. Italy is going she can, France can build all she needs to retain her present advantage. This means that Britain will have to invoke of | the “escalator” clause and the United States embark upon a considerable and expensive supplementary program long before 1936, the date when the treaty of London expires. (Copyright, 1930). French Academicians Upset by “Talkies” ‘Two seats are vacant in the French \udemy. those of Georges Clemen- ceau, former prime minister, and of Francois de Curel, the dramatist. The gathered for the election. Among them were many of the great names of France—Joffre, Bazin, De Regnier, Valery, rdeaux, But no election place, because the grave academicians were upset by an untoward incident. Outside their meet- ing room was an infernal machine of fantastic design—people it & sound news-film camera. With dngf accord, the old men bolted —would have none of it. They refused flatly to countenance any such new- fangled contraption, and the talkie men had to go home without a shot. Among the. Academy are Andre Tardieu, the prime minister. Tar- dieu was once a literary man by pro- fesslon, in that for many years he was chief editorial writer of the Temps and is author of many books, notably “Prance and America” and his monu- mentel volume on the peace treaties, Tight Gown Delays Wedding of Princess No one, including the town's best gossipers, was able to account for the 45-minute delay which occurred the morning of the royal wedding at the Pauline chapel in the Quirinal in Rome. Finally a talkative seamstress solved the mystery. When Princess Marie-Jose called for her dressmakers to don the expensive bridal gown, much to the astonishment of all those present, it turned out to be too tight for her. After a series of exhalations and sug- gestions, her dressmakers decided to pick the cape from the dress and to sew it on a white evening gown. In all the photographs taken of Princess Marie that day, it will be noticed that she is wearing interminable white kid f!ovu and a decollete. Before leaving for the Vatican the royal couple had obtained the Pope’s permission that Princess Marie would be received de- spite her low-necked dress since she was not to blame for it. —————————— Pineapple Industry Is Enriching Hawaii Expansion of the pineapple industry of the islands, together with new acre- ing here, indicates the fundamental prosperity of Hawall's pineapple busi- | ness. Libby, McNeill & Libby, one of the three big companies, has just ob- tained 1,750 acres of land partly by |lease and partly by purchase, on the {Island of Maul. This will considerably { increase the Libby output in the islands, which already is growing steadily. To accommodate shipments of pineapples from the other islands of Honolulu— site of the main canncries—the terri- tory is building wharves and develop. ing an industrial harbor in the general Honolulu harbor area. During the can- ning season thousands of tons of rips pineapples pour into Honolulu Harbor by btrg:, towed from other islands, and | must be' canned within a few hour. { Good priczs are expected for this year. ArmEe English Poet Offers Prize to Americans Richard Aldington, a young English poet who, after long obacuruy,' nu'jun become & best seller in America with his “Death of a Hero” is making prompt and original thanks to his American friends. He has just offered an annual prize of 2,500 francs ($100) to any American (not English) poet whose product during the year, appear- ing in a magazine called This Quarter, shall be deemed best by a committee of Judges. This is probably the first liter- ary prize in history offered by an Eng- lishman to American candidates throus a magazine published in France. Tfl publisher of This Quarter is Edward Titus, well known Montparnasse figure, and manuscripts ma; t 4 rue Delnmhr.. oL lfl:"n ke age for the three big companiecs operat- try: EDITORIAL SECTION he Sunday Star. WASHINGTON, D. C., SUNDAY MORNING, MAY 4, 1930. Justice of Russ Reds Every Code of World Has Been Tossed Into Discard and Class Principles Hold Sway BY BEN JAMES. ED justice, her blindfold sup- planted by a pair of crimson spectacles, scans the pages of Karl Marx for guidance, weighs her scales with a set of counter- ises new to this world, and strikes g:hncu that defy the of legal gravity operating in other countries of the earth. For Soviet jurisprudence, thundering over the uncharted plains of Communism, abandons all models in its work of crystallizing a new soclal philosophy into law. ‘The moral rules of Moses, the codes of Justinian, the doctrines of Coke and Blackstone. and the whole body of Czarist civil and criminal laws are rele- gated to oblivion, branded as archaic and sa) regulations that held the workers of the world in bondage. And the shades of ancient lawgivers and ~Drawn for The Sunday Star by Stockton Mulford. bewigged jurists hover aghast above the red-draped benches of Soviet tribunals, where precedent is a word witho power, and guarantees of individual lib- erty and individual equality before the law are swept away in favor of a legal system avowedly founded upon class principles, class judgments and class Justice. In these raw, new curiae the bulwarks against tyranny set up by the French and American revolutions, defining the inalienable rights of humans, are stamped as charters of a privileged class. “The Rights of Man” has no place. in the fundamental statutes of Red Russia. Where this document designates law as the expression of gen- eral will and declares all men born free and equal, the~organic law of the Soviets decrees that only one group has full legal rights and that “all power must appertain completely and exclu- -— sively in the laboring masses.” Based upon this idea new crimes are created and old offenses given eccentric sig- nificance, while court rooms project scenes that twist ancient emotions into grotesque shapes and press primitive in- stincts into shiny, new and unylelding molds. Daily, new and dramatic trials loom on the legal horizon of Soviet Russia. All the bizarre facets of red criminal law flash brilliantly throughout the or- deals. Statutes of an anomalous penal code define the offenses, judges with unique and unconventional qualifica- tions preside, and the insidious opera- tions of the notorious G. P. U, the Soviet secret police whose jurisdiction covers every phase of counter-revolu- tionary crimes, are bared. All the fac- tors of Communist law enforcement stand out in sharp relief. A current case involving some of the highest officlals of a state government is in the process of litigation. Among the defendants are numbered responsi- ble executives in such important or- ganizations as the commissariat of agriculture of the Ukraine, the Uk- ranian state planning c the ‘ommission, agrarian banks, the Institute of Econ- omy of the Ukraine, the Agronomical |y School and the Ukrainian Lumber ‘Trust. Forty-five of the accused men have pleaded guilty, and for the first time in Soviet history no death penalties were imposed for participation in a widespread and threatening conspiracy against the state. The trials of Te- mainder of the group are to be heard. | They were all discovered by the ever- alert G. P. U. as members of & subrosa society which aimed to cripple the farm policies of the government. It is difficult to hide any activity (Continued on Fourth Page.) Irish Industry Grows Great Advances Made in Economic Fields Stir Nation as It Has Not Been in Century BY HUGH BUTLER. HANNON to flow that Fords may go” was the headline with which a great American daily announced that the re- cently completed Shannon hydro-electric scheme the Irish Free State would supply the power to run the Ford tractor works at Cork. These two great modern industrial developments, with a third, a Belglan-owned sugar mill at Carlow, have stirred up the Irish nation industrially for the first time in & ceatury. Now the are gossiping about these “queer machines” instead of politics and horses. ‘These three great developments tell only part of the story of Ireland's in- dustrial renaissance. It has been found that sugar could be grown as well in the more fertile Irish counties as anywhere else in Europe. A government subsidy on milled sugar was granted to a Con- tinental syndicate and another subsidy to the farmers growing beets. Since then there has been persistent pressure on Dublin from farmers in other coun- ties and from sugar companies to ex- tend the subsidy to other parts of the country. Further, Ireland has had the courage to buy out all the privately owned creameries within its borders and turn them over to the farmers' co-operative societies—a co-operative monopoly, if you can call it that! What other coun- try in the world would be so brave? As an additional part of the picture, a centralized Irish marketing organization has been set up to compete effectively in the English markets. Thus the butter business has been placed solidly on its feet. The oldest industry in Dublin—the Guinness Brewery—has made a new beginning and actually is using modern 1ldvenuing to sell the world its high- priced expensive stout—and & stout, substantial food it s, too! “Why shouldn't the cattle business, which is such a prominent part of Irish farming, sprout an Irish meat indus- 2" has been the cry of Ireland for decades. Well, it has. The Farmers' Co-operative Abattolr at Waterford is now killing pigs and sheep, and some cattle. g4 Tariff Protection an Aid. Tariff protection has played a part, \too, with the result that Irish smokes are now being manufactured in Dublin, {and the old shoe business has been ex- |tended. Factorles also have been set up to provide furniture, blankets, per- sonal wearing apparel, glass bottles, candles, cards, rosary beads, etc. for | Irish consumption, and jobs have been supplied for several thousand workers. But all these local supplies of the neces- | saries of every-day use in the wardrobe | and household of the Irish colleen still are quite incidental in Ireland’s work-a- day picture. They grow-and prosper or languish as the fortunes of the farmer rise or fall. Two or‘::mhm _4:::&:1"‘1;;; | not very large ones, either- the mam::uefhs of 3,0:06?3& fifl:‘ especially when the wome! . l:: it 1% to the Ford works, with its big export trade, the resuscitated Guinness beer export trade and the production of bacon, butter, etc., which go overseas in such large quantities—it is to these newly born and reborn industries that the Irish Free State looks for industrial inspiration and to provide her sons with occupations other than farming and emigration. ing remains and will continue '.o’l:ermlrglnd‘! best bet. For Erin is located at the door of Britain and of Northern Europe, with an ideal climate for root crops and the all-year-around air which provides automatic out-of- doors refrigeration for that marvelous light-cured bacon and light-salted but- ter which would spoll while you wait here in America during our Summer months. Irish farming the advan- tage of products of good reputation, co- operative organization of the most mod- erg style and leadership of the first order. “Blarney Stone” an Attraction. But we must not forget when sum- ming up Irish industrial prospects that more of the half million American tour- ists en route to Europe are going over to kiss the “Blarney Stone” each year, and more silver dollars drop out of their pockets into those of Irish hotel keepers as they are held upside down by their ankles at the top of Blarney Castle. Mr. Ford today is paying over 4,500 Irish farmers’ sons at Cork more than $100,000 a week to make tractors for the Americans and Russians, as well as for Irish farmers. It is the only Ford trac- tor works in the world. Every one won- ders why it was located in Cork, and no reason other than sentiment has been found. Mr. Ford's father was a Cork man. Ford’s projects usually succeed. This great modern plant at Cork represents some remarkable successes. It was built and is now operated solely by the sons of Irish farmers and peasants, and with the same machines which are being op- erated at Detroit these Irish lads are roducing equally good parts at just as ow a cost. In the first 11 months of last year they exported $7,500,000 worth of tractors and parts—the feature of the increase in the total of Irish exports last year. About a million dollars’ worth were shipped to Russia and another million dollars’ worth to the United States—a million-dollar import which has stirred American labor to protest and the Senate to pass a resolution or- dering an investigation of all such American manufacture abroad. New Industries Rated Important. Each of Ireland's three new indus- tries, which bulk so hugely against the simple rural countryside, were started shortly after the new dominion came into being, just when political condi- tions were more chaotic. Many doubt- ers and skeptics in Dublin and else- where held the view that the Shannon scheme was just as sentimental in its origin as the Ford plant; they held that a little plant on the River Liffey, which flows through Dublin, would have been good enough for a starter, as 80 per cent_of the demand for current is in the Dublin area. Fiercely it was argued in Dublin. The Shannon scheme was technically un- BY CHARLES L. MITCHELL, Meteorologist and District Forecaster, United States Weather Bureau. HE great hurricanes of recent years have aroused much in: terest on the part of the pub- lle, with the result that nu- merous requests have been re- celved by the Weather Bureau relative to the time of year hurricanes occur, the area affected, the frequency of their occurrence on the Gulf and South At- lantic Coasts in the past and the proba- bility of their. future occurrence. All disturbances, or lows, as they are designated on the daily weather maps, are cyclones—that is, they all have a central area of small extent where the atmospheric pressure is low, with grad- ually increasing pressure outward from this center, around which the wind blows counter-clockwise in the North- ern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Bouthern Hemisphere. The majority of disturbances develop in the temperate zones and are called extra-tropical cy- clones. As a rule, they do not become sufficiently severe to cause winds of dangerous velocity, and they move on an average 400 or 500 miles a day to- ward the east, northeast or southeast, because the general circulation of the atmosphere in the temperate zones is, in general, in the same direction. Assume Hurrican Force. ‘The relatively rare cyclonic disturp- ances that form within the tropics are called tropical cyclones, and they al- most invariably move in a westerly di- rection for a time, traveling from a few hundred to many hundreds of miles before recurving toward the north and northeast, as many of them do in the Northern Hemisphere, ar to the south CYCLONE’S ORIGIN TRACED BY U. S. METEOROLOGIST Frequency of Occurrence, Area Affected and Time of Year They Are Common Listed With Causes. | Ocean, the cyclones of the Indian Ocean and southeast. as many do in the Southern Hemisphere. A large percent- age of these tropical cyclones develop into storms of such great intensity that they are attended by winds of hur- ricane force (75 miles or more an hour), in some storms reaching more than 125 miles an hour. The typhoons of the Western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal and the hurri- canes of the South Pacific Ocean, the Eastern North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, are essentially the same in character. It is with the last named, best known as West Indian hurricanes, that we are concerned. Winds Helped Columbus. Nearly every one is famillar with the trade winds, especially the northeast trades of the North Atlantic Ocean. It was these favoring winds that greatly R Toland (San Salvador). one of the Ba. hama Islands. Extending from Spain and Portugal across the Atlantic to the southeastern coast of the United States | turing is the great area of more or less perma- nent high pressure, centering near the Azores, and out from which the wind is blowing clockwise, or toward the southwest, over the ocean to the south. ‘These winds are called the northeast trades and are quite constant much of the time, especially during the Summer and early Autumn. Over the South Atlantic Ocean a sim- flar high-pressure area extends from Southern Africa westward to Southern sound and commercially impossible, they said, taking much the same position as Cy and Maria when they stood looking at their first locomotive. Cy said, “They’ll never start her.” Maria said, “They never will” After the train had gone around a curve and Cy and Maria had pulled up out of breath after run- ning after it, Cy said to Maria, “They'll never st her,” and Maria said, “They never will.” Irish doubters have been in the “They'll-never-start-her” stage, but now they are getting ready to get into the “They'll-never-stop-her” stage, with the Shannon power actually light- ing Dublin and the new lines quite rapidly being stretched into 200 towns. Seen as “Courageous Gestufe.” ‘Thus the Shannon scheme in fts early beginnings was at least a cour- ageous gesture to the world proclaim- ing an “Ireland reborn”—evidence that the Irish believed in themselves as a nation with a future. Now, in the usual Irish fashion—hind side before—it is about to provide a psychological tonic for the Irish themselves. This great waterpower generating system, which a German contractor bullt, has cost $26,000,000. In order to use the current generated, the current consumption in the Free State will have to be about doubled. To make it as easy as possible for the Irish farmer to pay for an electric installation, the Irish Electricity Board, a decentralized con- trol board set up by the government, has instituted the scheme of “nothing down and 10 years to pay.” Appliances also can be had on deferred terms. One can conjure up all sorts of visions of a comfortable Ireland with electric power. Rural industries! There are a number of them still in existence, scat- tered throughout the 26 counties— homespun woolens, lace, bog oak carved | ! to mention poteen (con- ‘whisky) | To keep unimpaired rough, enduring quality of homespun and home-woven Irish woolen cloth is ite impossible when an electric motor ves the chuttle, but Harris tweeds from the power looms of the islanders north of Scotland have a considerable vogue, much as have the lovely Ori- ental rugs now similarly made in the East. Then, too, scattered over the countryside, much as in New England, are old water-wheel mills, many of them empty. well occupy the idle hours of farmer, his wife and family, turning out stand- ard parts of this or that for assembly in Dublin or Cork. Sea Weed of Possible Value. - Kelp, & sea weed, produces iodine when burned in a very crude fashion on the west coast. Whether electrification and the application of modern meth- ods to this strange occupation would be practical is a question. What sport—to burn up weeds at a profit! novelties, not traband Irish Most of all, the question arises as to |1, pe how far and how rapidly the great Irish basic industry—agriculture—can be electrified and modernized. It will take time—it always does to change farmers—and Irish farmers are very conservative. Heavily subsidized by the government for both the production of sugar beets | Go; and of sugar, the Irish Sugar Manufac- Co., composed of Beigian, Czech- oslovak and Irish interests, built a sugar plant at Carlow in 1926 at a cost of over $1,000,000. This program has been highly successful. Last year 141,140 tons of beets were grown and 20,500 tons of sugar was manufactured as’ efficiently in any country of Europe. Here is another modern institution stir- ring “a bit of the old sod.” It is hard to chture the medieval community into which these three great highly efficlent, modern plants dropped (Continued on Third Page) | (Contirjued on Fourth Page.) that lovely, | 88 Electrified, they might |y ROOSEVELT IN KEY PLACE EOR 1932 NOMINATION New York Political Horoscope Favors Governor on Decidedly Live Ques- : tion of Public Utilities. BY MARK SULLIVAN. HAT the present article t:ou; to sttempt 1s s, .‘:.'.x, tentative horoscope of one-half the picture of the presidential campaign as it will be in 1932. The half about to be suggested is the Democratic, but for clarity’s sake the picture must begin on the Republican side, or at least, must begin with the Republican party of New York State. The nom-eoge. let it be emphasized, is tentative. is subject to change without notice. It could be changed by the Republican party in New York State suffering from a sudden attack of po- litical wisdom and prudence—of the gort that Republicans rather habitually catch pretty readily. In further estop- pel, let it be sald that what is here writ- ten about the Republican party in New York State is based on current and cas- ual information only. It may be that some wise leader, or fate, has a better program in store than the newspapers now record as probable. In New York State the Republican party is divided into two factions which appear, for the moment, to be happily united in & common purpose. The com- mon _purpose is mutual murder. wet Republicans say they are going to intreduce into the State convention s resolution favoring wetness. The dry mgubhum. of course, are lollg to fight it. The fight will be very bitter. It will be very much like that jolly harakiri the Democrats enjoyed at Mad- ison Square Garden, New York, in their national convention of 1924. this eomln{ fight within the Re- publican party of New York State, after the wets and drys have chewed at each other’s throats for a sufficient length of time, they are then going to nominate & candidate for governor—if, after that sequence of events theiynun find any one sufficlently lacking in political acu- men to take the nomination. Alternatives of Doom. Such a fight as is apparently on_the program for the Republicans in New York State commonly, and obviously, ends in one side winning, and in nam- ing, & candidate satisfactory to it. That is, if the drys win they nominate a dry candidate; if the wets win they nomi- nate & wet, In both cases the candidate doomed. 8o much hard feeling will have been worked up in the intra-party fight, that, whichever side wins, the other side will knife him. The other side, in short, will be in a mood to vote for the Democratic candidate for gover- nor without inquiring what his name 1s, what he looks like or what he stands or. I have said that this kind of fight commonly ends in victory for one side or the other and in extreme anger on the part of the side that does not win. Occasionally such a fight does not end that way. The three weeks of merry murder that the Democrats enjoyed in their national convention in 1924 did not end in victory for either side. That was only because the Democrats have & two-thirds rule—a rule which enables a stubborn minority to prevent the ma- Jority from nominating its man, from enjoying the fruits of victory. For this reason the Democratic carnival of hate the time the two factions had chewed each other to pleces to as great a de- gree as that it did not matter who was nominated, whether a dry or a wet, or a Catholic or & Protestant, or a Jew or a Gentile or an atheist. A party convention which has as bitter a as apparently the Republicans of New York State are going to have, or as bitter as the Democratic national con- vention had in 1924—such & party is bound to lose in the election. In contrast, in 1924 the Republicans had amiably refrained from getting an; at each other about or reviling each other about either prohibition or religion or anything else. The Repub- licans did not say much about prohibi- tion or about any other controversial question. With serene decorum the publicans in 1924 nominated Calvin Coolidge—and went on to the easiest victory the Republican party had ever had up to that time. Democrat to Be Elected. The return now to the situation in New York State this year and its bear- ing on the presidential campaign in the Nation in 1932: As it now appears, the Republicans in New York State, after | tearing each other to pleces for a suffi- clently enjoyable period, will, of course, elect the Democratic candidate for gov- ernor. The Democratic candidate for Governor—it goes without saying—is go- ing to be the Hon. Franklin Roosevelt, the present governor. Mr. Roosevelt at this moment and for some time past has been going serenely on toward renomination and re-election. Part of the serenity of his progress con- sists in his saying nothing whatever about prohibition. Presumably he is wet, else he never would have been elected Governor of the wet State of New York by the wet Democratic party of that State. At the same time, ap- parently, Gov. Roosevelt is not too wet. Apparently he is rather satisfactory to he drys. A quite extreme dry, the Hon. Willlam E. Sweet, ex-Governor of Colo- rado, was quoted in the papers the other y as saying that Gov. Roosevelt would be "lcl.‘e'r:‘lble to dry Democrats as & presiden candidate in 1932.” Gov. Roosevelt does not need to talk about prohibition. And it doesn't mat- ter much whether he talks about pro- hibition or not. He might be the wettest person in the world, or he might be the dryest. In either event he would be re- elected governor. He would be and will be re-elected through and by the pas- sions of whichever faction of the Re- publicans happens to have been beaten the Republican convention. (All this being subject to change in case the Republicans of New York State should g:pp)en to be overtaken by political wis- m. Talking to Good Effect. But if Gov. Roosevelt is not talking about prohibition he is, nevertheless, talking. He is talking to extremely good effect in the political sense. He is talk- ing about, and against, public utilities. Because Gov. Roosevelt is talking about public utilities, public utilities is going the issue with which he will be identified when he wins his re-election for governor this coming Fall. Not to one voter in 10,000 will it occur that Gov. Roosevelt was really elected by the Republican split over prohibition. They will all think, and the newspapers will say, and the politicians will say, that v. velt was elected because of his position on public utilities. 1t and s istady Daving, & yood. deel ,“an aving, & ea] of help in making public utilities a na- tional political issue. The thing was in the making even before Gov. Roosevelt | He took it up. The critics of the Supreme Court are talking about public utilities. All the rancor about Muscle Shoals contributes to it. So does the contro- versy about Boulder Dam. So does for- mer Gov. Pinchot's talk about “Giant Power” in his present campaign to be governor again. So does all the ham- mering of the Hearst and some ‘The | th: e B o e “unwadots of the public utilities themselves with reqm:} to the financial practices of some of them and their methods of propaganda, ‘This, then, will be the picture about six months from now: Franklin D. Roosevelt will have been twice elected Governor of New York State—will have twice demonstrated his capacity to carry the State that carries the heaviest weight of all, both in nominating con- ventions and in elections. t record alone will go far toward giving Gov. Roosevelt primacy with respect to the Democratic presidential nomination in 1932. To deny the nomination to a man with such a vote-getting record would be too pointed. For that matter, there is no good reason for denying him the nomination. He has a good record, a good presence and a good name—a good name both in the sense of good reputation and also in the potent sense of bearing the name ‘“Roosevelt.” He is clearly wet enough to be satisfactory to the wet Democrats, yet apparently not so wet as to be unsatisfactory to the drys. In short, Gov. Roosevelt seems to be “set” for the Democratic presidential nomination to & degree is rarely the case with any candi- date two years before the nomination oceurs, ‘The Democratic issue in 1932 will be, as often, what the candidate makes it. The issue, with Mr. Roosevelt as the candidate, will be public utilities. Possible Impediment. So far, so good. There should be mentioned, however, a possible impedi- ment to the latter part of this program. Gov. Roosevelt will have been elected Governor of New York on a pledge to do something about public utilities. He will thereafter be Governor of New York for a full year and a half before the Democratic national convention takes place. He will have been Gov- ernor of New York throughout two full sessions of the Legislature. He have had, ther:fore, considerable op- portunity to substitute something con- crete for the phrase “do something about public utilities He will have been obliged to say at least twice in messages to the Leg - haps many other times, exactly what it is that he would do_ about public utilities. Not only will he have been obliged to state his program, the pro- gram will have been subjected to clari- fying discussion. Cl:ar minds, not only among his critics and opponents, but among many disinterested persons will have learned just how far Gov. Roose- velt's program carries him toward pub- lic_ownership and public operation. Throughout all this period there will be many pitfalls. Not only pitfalls. Inherent in the public utility question are intricate complexities. To lay out a program for further regulation—if regulation it is to be; or for modified or partial public ownership, if it is to be that—in short, to chart the way for whatever is to b> done in the United States about public utilities, is a task for the highest exder.of states- manship. Gov. Roosevelt will have had the eyes of the conntry focused upon him, with respect to th's quastion, for a full year and a half b="re the Dem- ocratic nom‘nation of 1322 takes place. Utilities to Be an Issue, Whether this horasrope be. fulfilled in detail or not, one lars: part of it seems fairly certain. E-on if Go Roorevelt should not wf cratic presidentizl nomi utilit'es are going to cor ical issue in the United s national political issue already. one can understand all the prosent row about the Supreme Court—not the spe- clal row about Judge Parker, but more fundamental one about Chief Justice Hughes—without understanding certain theories associated with the re- lation of public utilities to government. ‘Wherefore, the writer of this article sadly foresces for himself an arduous prospect. This writ:r has, during a few years past, dripped seas of cere- bral sweat trying to make clear to readers the meanings and bearings of certain cryptic phrases and slogans as- sociated with ~ political _controversies that blazed through the headlines for a time. He has tried to clarify “equalizgtion fee” and “flexible pro- vision” "and “debenture plan” and “nullification”’y, and “concurrent juris- diction” and fhe Senate reservations to its adherence to the World Court and | “parity.” And the clarifying of the sum of these and of many more is not 50 tortuous a task as it is going to be to make simple the distinction between “presgnt reproduction value” and “pru- demt investment value'—which phrases are the battle cries of two contending schools of thought about public utili- ties. The public utility question includes, as respects the valuation part of it and the part of which the Supreme Court is the arena—it includes a cur- rency question. It is entangled in the mazes that attend the changing value of the dollar. It has, in short, some of the characteristic bedevilments that attend understanding or misunder- standing of Bryan's “free silver” issue, his “16-to-1" gnnncn and his “Cross of Gol peech. China Will Reform Post Office System A readjustment of the powers of China’s postal administration is the recommendation brought back by the Chinese delegate to the international postal congress in London. The dele- gate found that many countries di- vided their postal administration into two_branches, one for controlling the mail service and the other for con- trolling postal savings banks and money orders. With the idea of fol- lowing the example of other nations and of bringing China into line with reforms, the recommendation was ap- proved by the Nanking government to create a directorate for the postal savings bank and for handling money- order transactions. China's postal ad- ministration is one of the new national services which has not become totally disrupted by civil wars, mutinies and revolutions. v. New South African Chief Proves Popular ‘The appointment of Lord Clarendon as the next &wemor general of the Union of South Africa has given gen- eral satisfaction despite the repeated assertions in the Af ress that South Africa wanted a South African for the job. Lord Clarendon is Premier ertzog's own choice and as he speaks high Dutch, which is closely related to the Afrikaans spoken by the Boers, he should be at home among the Boer farmers. He is a descendant of the fa- mous Thomas Hyde, who yent into exile with Charles II and aff ard wrote “The English Constituti monu- mental work. He farmed eXtensively in for many years.