Evening Star Newspaper, December 9, 1934, Page 41

Editorial Page . " Dart 2—12 Pages 7 OLD GUARD NEW PARTY SEENIF G. O. P. KEEPS HOLD Conservative Group With Progressive Leader Needed to Save G. O. P., Nicholas Roosevelt Says. BY NICHOLAS ROOSEVELT, Pormer Tnited States Minister to Hungary. ISING from one of the worst defeats in the political history of the country. the Republican leaders are comforting them- selves with the fact that 45| per cent of the votes cast in the recent election were for Republican candi- dates. On the face of it. this does not seem to ba a bad showing. The Republican headquarters in Washington proudly points to the fact that the Republican vote in 1934 was nearly 86 per cent of the vote for Hoover in 1932 whereas ‘the Democratic vote in 1934 was only 71 per cent of the vote for Roosevelt in 1932. ‘The ract remains, however, that in the great strongholds of the Republi- can party the Republican machines underwent almost complete defeat. New York not only re-elected a Demo- cratic Governor with a larger ma- Jority than in 1932, but it re-elected a Democratic Senator with a larger majority than in the last election, and into the bargain the Democrats cap- tured both houses of the State Legis- Jature. In Pennsylvania the Demo- cratic candidate for Governor received nearly 50 per cent more votes than did Gifford Pinchot in his last election The Democratic candidate for the Senate received almost 300.000 more | votes than the corresponding candi- | date two years ago and defeated the Republican Senator by upward of 120,000 votes. The Republicans lost half of their seats in Congress. In Ohio the Repub- lican candidate for the Senate. Simeon Fess, was defeated by 450,000 votes - and received nearly 300,000 votes less than the Republican candidate 1932. In Indiana the Republican can- didate for the Senate was defeated by nearly 50.000 votes and received 150,- 000 less than the corresponding candi- date in 1932. In Connecticut the story is about candidate for the Senate was defeated by a substantial majority and polled fewer votes than did Mr. Hoover two years ago. In New Jersey the “Old Guard” candidate for the Senate was beaten, but a young Republican was elected Governor. Liberal Gets By. While it is, of course, true that in most States the total votes were smaller this year than in 1932, the lesson of these defeats is obvious. Among the Republicans defeated for the Senate were Messrs.' Reed, Fess, Robinson of Indiana, Kean and Walcott—all of them identified in the public mind with the most reactionary type of Republicanism. Even in Michigan the more lican -cati@idate for the Senate, Mr. Vandenberg, got by with & narrow margin and polled only about 60 per eent of his previous vote. Even though the country over- whelmingly indorsed the policy of spending, it is not enough to say. by ‘way of explaining these terrible losses that “you cannot beat Santa Claus. At the same time it is obviously not correct to say that the cc more than ever in favor of the Ne Deal. Rather does it favor support- ing the President and giving him a free hand. There are signs. however, of increasing dissatisfaction with many of his policies. not only in the South, but also in the West. As a matter of fact, the only important Re- publican gains were made in some of the Western States. notably in Kansas, Oklahoma and the Dakotas. Even in Jowa, Nebraska and other Middle Western States the Republican losses in the total number of votes cast were not as great as the losses of the Demo- erats. How, then. can the Republican fail- ure in the East be explained? Less Faith in Leaders. i Iy by the fact that the large body of independent voters in the country. | even though increasingly distrustful of the New Deal the old Republican leaders than they have in the New Dealers. “The Old Guard Republican leadership is bank- rupt” is the remark commonly heard throughout the country. “The leaders are without vision, without ideas. with- out a sympathetic understanding of the Nation's problems. They are liv- ing in an age that is past. They have not caught up with the world.” These and similar sentiments are to be heard on every hand.® And they contain a fair measure of truth. The party has offered no constructive pro- gram. Most of its leaders have fol- lowed the old tactics of vilifying and misrepresenting the opposition. Worst of all, the Old Guard element, with smug complacency. has assumed that all they need do is to sit back and wait for the tide to turn. “The voters have no place else to go.” is their usual remark; “they have got to come back to us.” What the Old Guard refuses to realize is that although the country may be slowly swinging back to con- servatism, the people are through with the old reactionary leaders. Take the situation State. The last liberal Governor in this State was Charles Evans Hughes. from 1906 to 1910 Charles 8. Whitman was a machine man, and Nathan L. Miller was a conservative. The State machine, throughout nearly all this time was in the hands of ultra-conservatives—men like William Barnes, jr.; Charles D. Hilles, James W. Wadsworth, jr.; Machold and others. In the United States Senate since the days of Root and Depew there have been but two Republicans from New York State— Wadsworth and Calder—both of the Old Guard. In the House of Repre- sentatives the majority of the Repub- licans in recent years have been ma- chine men of the old school. Helped Defeat Moses. These leaders as a group resisted | the efforts of the elder Theodore Roosevelt to liberalize and modernize the party a quarter-century ago. Many of them have resisted all similar efforts since that time. Some helped to defeat Robert ‘Moses this year because they knew him to be fearless and independent. In the State Legislature the party organization played the game in the tradition of the Pennsylvania Repub- licanism of Quay, Penrose and Vare. Above all, the leaders clung to their own personal power and :patronage, regardless of the interests of the party as a whole. ....Then came Kingsland Macy. Lib- erals hoped b~ would clean up the party. There was even reason to . { temperance of his attack. in| the same—the Republican | have still less faith in | in New York | Republican . believe that he would make an excel- {lent State chairman. Despite his lack of political experience he got off to a good start. He sensed the wants of the voters better than the Old Guard element, but with the pas- sage of time and the increasing diffi- | culty of his task, he developed a | capacity for disagreeing with every- one who viewed things differently | than he did. From this he progressed to quarreling with his assistants and | subordinates until he so disorganized | the party that leaders of all kirfls | realized that until he was ousted | there was no hove for the Republicans in New York State. Unfortunately, the group that brought about his ousting played into his hands by a tactical blunder that permitted his associates and the Dem- ocrats to pin the Old Guard label on them. The statement that announced the formation of their committee was signed by Bert Snell, George Fearon and Joe McGinnies—the three names | in the Republican organization most | closely identified in the public mind | with all that was most unpopular and | reactionary. The result was a fore- gone conclusion. Mr. Macy, who, though wrong in his tactics, correctly sensed public opinion, knew that these three leaders and numerous other members of the committee represented all that the average Republican voter most resented. He attacked them | violently—so violently that he not only | wrecked the party but made his own | defeat as party chairman inevitable | by turning against himself moderate | men who were incensed at the in- ‘The with ;lhe best of good intentions and sin- | cerely anxious to revive the party, failed. In fact, the party has never undergone such a complete defeat in | New York State. What next? One thing seems certain—that so long as the present leaders remain | in control the Republican machine may be able to bring out a diminish- ing body of voters in the hopeless task of trying to prevent the defeat of their candidates, but they will not re the imagination and loyalty the great mass of independent voters, without whose co-operation the blican party cannot win. People new faces, new names, new | A clean sweep is called for, sweeping the reactionary element out of the control of the party as well as those misguided “liberals” who have | done so much to wreck the Repub- | lican organization in the last few | years. | But why dig up old history? | so-called Davison Committee, Ch_a_nn in Michigan. ‘This sounds likes big order. In Michigan, however, under the im- petus of Senator Vandenberg, every county leader in the Republican party | was changed during the last two years, for the very reason that Mr. Vandenberg and his associates real- ized that there also the feeling was strong in favor of getting rid of the old leaders. This doubtless worked hardship on many loyal party workers. In New York State such a procedure would probably be im- | possible to carry out, owing to the tenacity of maay of the leaders. Unfortunately these gentlemen have not only refused to heea the warn- | ings of intelligent observers in the last year or more, but they are clos- ing their eves deliberately to the les- son of the last election. They are convinced that what they should do is to stand pat. They resent all sug- gestions that there be changes in the leadership. They are determined not to relinquish any of their power or patronage. They are prepared to re- tain their hold on the wreck of the party, even if ir the process they pre- vent the party from recovering either in the State or in the Nation. How to handle such a situation, in view of the traditional inertia of the average voter and in view of the fact that organization leaders can be | successfully beaten only by other and | more competent leaders, is_the great | problem ‘hat faces the Republican | party. It looke as if the situation | called once more for an active revolt | on the part of the voters. In Missouri such a revolt is taking head under the leadership of younger Republicans. In Wisconsin such a revolt has taken the form of a new | party. In New York the only group vet actively crying for such a revolt is the discredited Macy element. This | group has shown its inability to lead just as plainly as Fas the Old Guard group. Hence the for new faces and new names. .lence, also, the cry for new ideas. The Old Guard may continue in power for a while. But if the Old Guard persists in maintaining its | stranglehold on the Republican party | it will end up by killing that organi- | zation. Not in two generations has there been "a larger body of dissatisfied | voters seriously considering the for- | mation of a new party. If the Old | Guard fails to see the light. the for- mation of a new conservative party, under progressive leadership, may well prove to he inevitable. | Nazi Hope to Rule Fashions for Women BERLIN, Germany (Special).—Like the Fascists in Italy, the Nazis here have taken even women's styles under their wing as an item in the pro- gram for national enlightenment and regeneration, and are trying—with the blessing of German textile in- terests—to create characteristically Teutonic styles. The German Fashion Institute, which is charged with this grave responsibility, has just held a style show here where some of the new Aryan fashions were exhibited. Among them, to the confusion of those | whose minds are filled with the anti- clerical emphases of national social- ism, was a woman's hat adapted from a kind of medieval monk’s headpiece. Dr. Joseph Goebbels, minister of propaganda and public enlighten- ment, set his official seal of approval on the Fashion Institute’s patriotic aims when it was founded, and Frau Goebbels was the first honorary chairman of the institute. A dis- appointing lack of agreement soon developed, however, as to the aims and methods best suited to the in- stitute, and Frau Goebbels resigned :lhmptly without giving any explana- on, (Oopyright. 1834.) A | family income. | ing the questionnaires represent 9 sec- EDITORIAL SECTION The Sundoy Star WASHINGTON, D. C, SUNDAY MORN NG, DECEMBER 9, 1934 Working Wives Aid Homes Columbia Survey Reveals Women Provide Necessities as Well as Luxuries. BY JOHN WALKER HARRINGTON. RE the homes of “gainfully em- ployed wives blighted and do husbands resent their eco- nomic independence? Such questions as these find answer in a survey made public last week at Columbia University. The facts were gathered by Dr. Cecile T. La Follette of Teachers’ College. As one married woman engaged in work of her own she addressed hundreds of letters to married women throughout the coun- try asking them scores of questions concerning their status as affected by employment. This inquiry is especially in order these days when, as a eure for de- pression, it has been suggested that all married women wage earners be discharged. If the 652 who replied to the questions of Mrs. La Follette | were compelled to stop working it seems the unemployment situation would not be helped much. Among them they employ 540 persons in their homes and most of them could not afford such assistance if they were | not earning money to supplement the The women answer- tions of the country and 18 States. They reside in 36 cities which have a population of from 5,000 to 500,000 | each. More than a hundred questions, same most -intimate, appear on the inquiry forms sent out by Mrs. La Fol- lette, Although the number of per- sons so interviewed is not large, the analysis of their answers is a thorough cross-section of present-day Americag married life. Working Women Increasing. Married women who work have been steadily increasing in this country, as shown by Government statistics. There are now approximately 3,000,000 of them. In 1890 only 1 out of every 22 working women was married, while in 1930 the ratio was 1 married woman to every 8 gainfully employed. | There are 527 occupations in which women are engaged, although the great majority of them are to be found | in only 63. Those in the professions have greatly increased. Many are in law, medicine, theology, while there are thousands of woman chemists, metallurgists and engineers. Of the group studied by Mrs. La Follette 75 per cent are in professions of some kind, the balance being mostly in the commercial field and only a few in the industrial or mechanical occupations. It is generally accepted that pro- fessional women who work are mar- ried to mem in the professions. Less than a third of the professional women in this group, however, are so situated. The indications are that husbands of professional women are chiefly in business or industry. In the matter of education the households covered by the inquiry show that the wives have been more zealous in acquiring college degrees than have been the husbands. The study reveals the following sta- tistics on the educational qualification of the surveyed families: No. of Degree holder, families. Husbands only . 50 Wives only ...... . 137 Both husband and wife . . 101 Neither . . 283 Missing 81 652 Ambition for Improvement Shown. As most of the woman workers are in the professions and their replies on other questions are so complete, it is probable that the 81 “missing” have degrees and do not wish to say so. It developed also that even among the women who had no affixed initials to denote thelr formal education, many have taken special instruction to pre- pare themselves for the higher pay in advanced vocations. There was a swimming instructress, for instance, who studied Spanish for three years and learned sewing and embroidery. A married woman telegraph operator assimilated art, psychology and astron- omy. Throughout the survey evi- dences appear of the feminine ambi- tion to develop and improve and to gain in self-expression. As a rule women who work after they are married had worked before. Of the number interviewed by Mrs. La Follette, 9 per cent had done so, 5 per cent had not and 1 per cent de clined to commit themselves. The 652 went to work mainly because of eco- nomic needs. A very close second reason is that they like to do it be- cause of the stimulation and personal contacts an active career affords. The desire to use the valuable training they have had in the pre-marital state and a wish to have economic se- curity also figures. A few frankly say they have no ability as housekeepers; could never learn to cook, and some do not want to learn. Need Given as Major Reason. Breaking down the replies still more, one sees that the ruling reason for married women working is an eco- nomic one. The largest vote, 438, is for necessity. The need to support dependents appears in 179 instances. ‘The desire to have more money the education of children figures 26 households. Fifteen women working so they can educate their husbands, who are themselves for new fessions. This aituation is not uncom- | mon in these days when occupations are shifting and overcrowded an many persons are jobless hre women in this group seek money for | | children. | In the second main division there | are 325 replies revealing that the per- sonal contacts made in the workaday | world furnish a strong motive for continuing. The love of the work itself is given as a reason by 63 mar- ried women who now are gainfully employed. Of the women replying, 246 give as OBSCURITY BY JOHN SNURE. LMOST complete obscurity hangs over the future of po- litical parties and political conditions for the next two years. Developments of the last week or 10 days, nearly on the eve of the opening of Congress, have accentuated this. ‘While it is possible that the progress of the Winter, with Congress in ses- sion and seeking to enact new legisla- tion, will clarify the atmosphere, there appears little prospect of it at this time. Rather, it seems likely that the obscurity will be increased. Some semblance of such a situation obtained in 1911 and 1912. when the rumblings of the split in the Repub- lican party were audible. But to'find any real parallel it will be necessary to go back to the 50s, to the forma- tion of the Republican party and the death throes of the old Whig party along with the widening chasms be- tween the Democrats of the North and South. G. 0. P. Change Not Assured. Despite the furor which has been aroused of late by the demands of Senator William E. Borah, insurgent Republican, of Idaho and by a num- ber of the more progressive Repub- licans, including some young Repub- lican leaders, for reorganization of the Republican party machinery and elec- tion of a new chairman to succeed Henry P. Fletcher, there is no real sign that this will be done. On the contrary, the week's develop- ments have seemed to make it clear that it will not be done. Mr. Fletcher not only declared that he had no in= tention of resigning, as demanded by Senator Borah, but that he would not call the Republican National Com- mittee together. Beyond that, he vir- tually invited Senator Borah and those of the same view to try to call the committee together by petition, which by the rules must contain the sig- natures of 16 national committeemen from 16 States. It is well understood here that Mr. Fletcher is in closer fouch with the views of most of the National Commit- tee than are the advocates of reor- ganization, and it is therefore as- sumed that he feels confident that no committee meeting can be forced against the wishes of himself and his backers, such as Charles D. Hilles of New York, vice chairman, who is urging the Republican party to stick to its old moorings. Indefinite Drift Likely. Regardless of the flurry of conflict- ing opinions, indications are strong that things will be allowed to drift 1 i I ng the de- d skills, and 9 declare they because they had always done so. It is taken for granted by some economists that mar- ried women, who were old enough to engage in some business or calling during the World War, as an emer- gency, have continued in it to this day. Only three of the group in- cluded in this survey give that as a reason for their present activities. Another analysis indicates that 304 work because they wish an outlet for one reason for their worl t to fors POLITICAL PARTIES FACE FOR 2 YEARS {Parallel of Present Situation Found Only in 50s, When Whig Party Went on the Rocks. vice chairman of the Republican Sen- | atorial Campaign Committee, recently declared that the only wise course was to await the results of the New Deal program, or whatever program the ad- ministration adopted through the coming session of Congress. He said that he saw no benefits in outsing Mr. Fletcher and overhauling the party organization, especially at this time of | uncertainty. Senator Dickinson said | that the future of all parties was in | doubt, and that nothing could be | gained by trying to rush through re- organization. He declared that if the | Roosevelt program brought recovery. the Democrats would remain in power after 1936, but if the program col- lapsed Mr. Roosevelt would be re- | turned to private life. Vandenburg Urges Waiting. Senator Dickinson $aid that if the | country in the next two years got on its feet economically it would make little difference whether the Repub- lican party machinery had been cver- hauled or whether the old leaders were left in charge. But if the New Deal fails the Republicans will almost inevitably forge to the front again, he said. ‘This is in accord with much of the Republican thought here. Senator Ar- thur H. Vandenburg of Michigan, who has supported some features of the New Deal, wants the party to bide its time and not tear itself up now by an internal struggle. Senator Borah has held out the idea that, if Old Guard Republican leaders will not call a meeting of the National Committee, the more pro- gressive leaders and workers of the party should get together in a great conference, or mass meeting, and seek to force reorganization, laying down a platform which would appeal to younger Republicans. As viewed here, such a gathering is unlikely in the near future. It is not clear what set of Republican chiefs could organize such a gather- ing. For one thing, the difficulty of financing it in these days of slim contributions to political causes would be great. Fear of splitting the Re- publican party wide open would cause some Republicans, though more or less in sympathy with Senator Borah’s views, to hesitate. Dispute Reveails Difficulties. The war of words lately between Senator Borah and Senator James Couzens, millionaire Republican, of Michigan, who attacked his views, while entertaining, has little im- portance except to afford one more concrete illustration of the difficulties in the way of a concerted Republican program. But, while the Republican party has been a storm center, the Democratic party is confronted with anything but easy sledding, and the fate of the La Follette Progressive party is un- certain. Outwardly at a height of power nl‘vb‘h.llnfl.dnefllfln | | | | this financial goal and beyond it by their training and seek self-expres- | sion; 228 enjoy financial independ- ence: 11 desire to complete their edu- cation and 3 to teach because by so doing they believe they will better un- derstand their own children. ‘There are children in the care of this group, either their own or adopted | ones. The figures indicate that each married woman has 1.78 of the coming generation to take care of. From this survey and from other sources it is evident that many mar- ried women work because they wish to give their children a good educa- tion. They are ambitious to be edu- cated themselves and certainly there is confirmation of the statement de- | duced from the survey of Mrs. La | Follette, that many urge their hus- bands to attend schools and colleges. | The effort of married couples to have homes of their own and to main- | tain a good standard of living is largely responsible for the wife work- ing, as shown by various sociological surveys. This is well borne out by the fact that of the 652 families covered in the Columbia report 50 per cent either own their own homes or are buying them. About half the 446 em- ployed husbands of the 652 wives so- licited in the survey have incomes of less than $2500 a year. One-fifth| of the husbands in the 652 families | mentioned are unemployed or unem- | ployable or have only desultory em- ployment. However, some of the hus- bands who are working or have busi- nesses of their own are fairly well off. There are 30 who earn more than $5,000 a year, and two of that select few receive $7,000 or more. Wives Earn Money for “Extras,® Recent investigations by sociologists indicate that the average American family desiring the necessities and comforts of life and some of its recre- ations and luxuries should have at least $2,500 a year. The group studied by Mrs. La Follette are striving toward the joint efforts of husbands and wives in most cases. Several families are using what the husband earns for running expenses and the wife con- tributes the extras or the things which the family can do without in the| event of financial stress. | Although so many of the married women of this survey are in the pro- fessional ranks, husbands who are em- ployed make a little more than their wives on the average. There are in- stances, of coyrse, in which the wife excels in income. A woman pharma- cist is mentioned who makes $10,000 a year for herself, and besides that pays her husband a salary of $3,000 and a percentage of the profits of her two stores. Another of the group who for seven years before her marriage had been a stenographer is a partner of her husband in a $1,000,000 contract- ing business created by their united efforts. Husbands Appreciate Efforts. ‘The attitude of husbands to the oc- cupations of their wives varies much as strong personal equations enter into it. It appears that in about five- sixths of the cases cited the man and woman contemplating marriage had talked over the likelihood of the wife working. Fully half the husbands ap- preciate the efforts of the wife to do her part, or to be financially inde- pendent, and 117 are reported as be- ing immensely proud of the capabil- ities of their wives. A very searching question as to whether the wives believed that by working they neglected their husbands received a surprising number of direct and specific answers. Of the group under consideration 258 declared there had been no complaints and they firmly believed they were guilty of no neglect whatsoever. Thirty- seven passed up on a reply,to this in- quiry. The remaining 357 held that, judged by some standards at least, they felt that they were derelict in duty, but some qualified this by say- ing “somewhat” and giving certain details. Whatever the economic conditions involved, the great and overwhelming majority of the group, 574, say they would do over again just what they are doing. Only 36 said “No,” and 42 omitted to answer. Most of the 652 report themselves as happy in their jobs. Chiang Seen Planning Firmer Grip on China SHANGHALI China Dozens of Te- sponsible for the growing belief that Gen. Chiang Kal-shek is speed- ing up his drive to increase and sta- bilize the authority of his military dictatorship—or semi-dictatorship, as it may more accurately be described today. The China scene is so full of uncer- tainties that it is safe to assume the generalissimo himself does not know what he is going to do about the presidency of the republic. But that his aspirations reach much higher than his present anomalous status as president of the military affairs com- mission is common knowledge. And there are plenty of straws in the wind to indicate what may come. One of the forgmost is the manner in which the draft constitution for China recently has beeh amended {Copyright, 1034 T p Special Articles DEPRESSION IN EUROPE ACCENTUATES WAR FEAR Internal Economic Unrest May Set Nations at Each Other’s Throats as Peace Machinery Fails. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. ANY times in recent weeks I have received letters from various parts of the country inquiring as to my view of the possibility of a new war in Europe within a brief period of time. These questions indicate a grow- ing apprehension all over the United | States regarding the European situa- tion and a further anxiety over the possibility that the country may again be involved in an Old World struggle. As to the issue of peace or war dur- ing the coming year, it is clear that conflict can come in one of three ways: First, by a war of aggression, that is, #y the deliberate attack of one country upon another with the design of bringing about a change in the territorial status quo; second, by a war of prevention precipitated by some country which feels itself men- aced by future attack and finds itself better prepared for war now than its prospective opponent; third, by an in- cident, such, for example, as the assas- sination of Serajevo. T the light of the existing situation in wope. there seems to be but one in 1914, when the killing of the archduke precipitated the World War. There are, moreover, many open pow- der magazines. Until the Saar voting is over and the question finally dis- posed of, an act of violence in that valley could bring about a Franco= German clash, Iam myself optimistie as to the Saar, although I confess that view is not held by many of the best-informed foreign diplomats at the National Capital. because there |is no clash in principle between the Germans and the French. The latter do not want the territory; in fact, not a few would be positively alarmed if the vote did not favor Germany. Demand Pay for Mines. ‘What the Prench are uncompromis- ing about is the question of payment by Germany for the mines of the Saar, which are French property. Already Laval and Hitler are, how- ever, reported to have made some preliminary agreement and there are all forms of economic, as well as financial, arrangements which can be mace. The Germans want the terri- tory, the French want the money for couatry which could conceivably start a war of aggression and that is Ger- many. For Germany alone of the great powers of Europe is controlled by a dictator whose undisguised pur- pose it is to bring about a revision of the territorial status quo in the Old World. And back of the purpose to extend national frontiers and achieve ethnic unity is the larger design to find sources of raw materials and mar- kets without which the restoration of Germany's pre-war prosperity seems unattainable. Defeat Seen. Nevertheless, the professional sol- diers of the Reich are today agreed that in the light of the present stage of German rearmament war with France would involve certain defeat. Such information as I can glean points to the conviction of the German high command that the German military forces will not be ready for any con- flict during the coming year. Trained | troops the Germans doubtless have in adequate numbers, together with ma- chine guns and field artillery, but heavy guns and tanks are yet to be manu- factured in adequate quantities and the problem of accumulating sufficient | steel, iron and a host of other things | necessary for war is far from solved. An act of aggression by Germany deliberately calculated to bring about war appears then totally unlikely un- less the internal ecomomic situation becomes so desperate that the Nation- al Socialist regime finds itself faced by 8 choice between domestic upheaval and foreign war. In this respect, it is plain a moment of danger will occur toward the end of the Winter when the privations of the masses have reached their extreme point. Never- theless present evidence seems to in- dicate that Hitler will manage to weather the storm without risking a war which threatens to result in su- preme disaster. As for a war of prevention in theory | France could still attack Germany and Italy invade Yugoslavia. Neverthe- less, the fact is that in the case of France the moment has passed when ity for such an attack when Hitler was only newl power and German rearmament hard- ly begun, the allies of France—notably the nations of the Little Entente—did urge upon their French ally the wis- dom of striking before Germany was ready. And at that time a legal jus- tification of such a course was to be found in Germany’s violations of the Treéaty of Versailles in the matter of armaments. Would Be Costly Now. Today Germany is far better armed, and while probably not able to resist French attack indefinitely, could make such an attack costly in the extreme. In addition, the French domestic sit- uation; has bscome obscure and uncer- tain. There is, then, little or no like- lihood of a purely preventive operation on the part of France. On the con- trary, the French are likely to mul- tiply their air forces, to continue to extend their frontier defenses and or- ganize their army for a future conflict An Italian attack upongYugoslavia is, too, unlikely, because it would be- yond any question put a strain upon Italian material resources which Italy is now in no shape to stand. Nor could even victory bring with it any eco- nomic benefits which would balance the costs of such an adventure. Italy is, to be sure, better equipped in all the mechanical departments of con- flict, but the Serbs also are heavily armed and their fighting qualities are well known. It is not beyond the limits of possi- bility that the Yugoslavs themselves might attack Italy in order to bring about domestic unity between the Croats, Slovenes and Serbs. Between these three Slav tribes, and particu- iarly between the Serbs and Croats, there is a long-standing quarrel which has already brought about two trag- edies—the murder of Stephan Raditch, the Croat leader, and the assassination of Alexander, King of Yugoslavia. Of the three possibilities—French, Italian and Yugoslav—I am bound to say it seems to me the last is the most likely to happen, and yet, as things stand today, if there is no new development, even this seems a relatively remote contingency. Incident More Likely. Actually, as far as the five great powers are concerned—France, Great Britain, Germany, Italy and the Soviet is fair to assume that the ents of all are equally eager to avoid war during the coming year. ‘The reasons vary, but the interests of all are identical. There remains the question of an incident, and here, # must be con- fessed, there is very little cause for optimism. .Last July, following the murder of Dollfuss, the Old World was undeniably on the very edge of the abyss. Mussolini's prompt mobiliza- tion and his ultimatum to Germany averted the disaster, but had he been forced to move his troops into Austris the mines. Germany's financial sit- | uation makes actual money payment | impossible, but neither the French | government nor the German Reich | desires to war over the Saar. Both | are more or less at the mercy of | an accident, and both are showing | a growing anxiety to prevent one | But when one comes to the Austrian | situation the outlook is unpleasant | in the extreme. No one can disguise 'the fact that economically and finan- cially the present government at Vienna has not been successful. It is sustained by the bayonets of Mus- solini and has never possessed any- thing like a majority backing within Austria. Disorder is at all times pos- sible. No explosion engineered by Hitler is likely before the Saar ques- tion is disposed of. but thereafter any- thing may happen. If Mussolini should march to de- fend Austrian independence he would beyond much doubt be attacked by Yugoslavia and such an attack would open the way to German military action. What Czechcslovakia and Rumania would do under such circume stances is doubtfu!, while the position of France would be excessively diffi- cult, since Yugoslavia is an ally and Germany and Italy both prospective foes. As to the Soviet Union, while it is moving nearer and nearer to an open alliance with France, it has no common frontier with Germany and at best could only co-operate through the air. Poland Neutralized. Ge has st least neutralized Poland by her non-aggression pact, by far the cleverest single bit of diplo- macy since Hitler came to power. She is working desperately to bring about an understanding with Yugoslavia, and while no decisive progress has yet been made in that direction, an even- tual understanding seems probable. | Today France probably would move to the defense of Czechoslovakia against |a German attack and might find her- self compelled by her treaty obliga- |tions to support Yugoslavia against | Italy. But her own domestic situation is such that a crisis at home might at any' moment paralyze her action abroad. The British patently have no clear policy. They are becoming more and more disturbed by the growing menace of conflict on the continentgand less and less ready to participate in it. They would not support Italy in a war with Germany to maintain Austrian independence, nor France in a war with the Reich to defend Czechoslo- vakia. Nor would they intervene in a conflict between Italy and France or between Yugoslavia and Italy. On the other hand, they would not permit Germany to invade France or Belgium because they are profoundly alarmed over the increase in German arma- ments, particularly in the air. Like the Soviet Union, and unlike any other continental state, the Brit- ish are, too, gravely disturbed over Japanese purposes. They recognize that a European war might provide Japan with an admirable opportunity to consolidate her control of Eastern Asia, but they are equally well aware that the European situation is so men- acing that they cannot risk any quar- rel with the Japanese which would tie their hands in the Old World. British pessimism, and even fatalism, as to the continental situation is intensified by an increasing sense of impotence in the face of mounting dangers. May Preserve Peace. Nevertheless, all British effort will continue to be directed toward pre- venting a new war in Europe and since no great power desires it in any pres- ent time, the British may be able to exercise a decisive influence for peace during the next 12 months. Thus, Teverting to the question presented at the opening of this article, it seems to me that there is a very good chance that war may be avoided during the coming year and that if it does come it is likely to result from accident rather than deliberate design. Nevertheless, the fact still remains obscure in some American minds absorbed in domestic problems that Europe is moving unmistakably toward eventual conflict. No nation at the moment is ready or willing for such a conflict, but all are engaged in prep- arations and all are equally nervous and apprehensive. Those whose mem- ories go back to the years between Agadir and Serajevo will discover to- day the same sinister signs of basic unrest which existed two decades ago and proved to be authentic presages of conflict. Today, moreover, there is a new factor—economic pressure. The Rus- sian revolution and the great depres- sion have together put to many countries a social problem absent in the pre-war era. Fascism and Na- tional Socialism are themselves the expression of the resolution of the capitalistic classes in Italy and Ger- many to prevent the rise of Com- munism even at the cost of the de- struction of democratic liberties. But while Mussolini and Hitler, as the agents of capitalism, have seized power and abolished democracy, they have not succeeded in creating domes- tic prosperity, and the economic situation of the Reich in particular is daily becoming more desperate. If this economic situation in Ger- many becomes. sufficiently acute the danger of Communism may become actual. And in that case heavy in- dustry and high finance will be driven (Continued on Fourth Page.,) \