Evening Star Newspaper, April 26, 1931, Page 25

Part 2—8 Pages WASHINGTON, EDITORIAL SECTION Jhe Sunday St D. . C, SUNDAY "MORNING, APRIL 1931, 26, DEMOCRATIC WET PLANK NEW AUSTRO-GERMAN PACT DISTURBS PEACE OF EUROPE - PROSPECT WORRIES DRYS‘ Yhird Party Unlikely as Raskob Forces Hustle for Delegates, But Nominee Cannot Be Ant BY MARK SULLIVAN, HE question is, what will the dry Democrats do? The situation confronting them is that the present man- agement and official headship and principal leadership of the party is wet in = sentiment: that wet leadership has drafted its senti- ments into the rough form of a pro- posed wet plank for the party at its next national convention; that the wet leadership is actively organizing re- cruits to assemble a majority with which to vote the wet plank into the mamn—and. finally, that the wet lership is succeeding in its work. About the latter assertion there can be little doubt. The wets will command all, or & majority of all, the big delega- tions frcm the big States (excepting Texas). They will command probably every delegate from the big wet State of New York (ninty-four delegates— &s many as five average dry Southern States combined). They will command probably every delegate from the com- paratively large State of New Jersey, probably four-fifths from the big State of Pennsylvania (76 delegates in all), probably two-thirds from the big State ©f Illinois, probably three-fourths fram assachusetts, probably three-fourths om Ohio. And so on. It is hardly to be doubted, in short, that the wet strength in the convention will have a majority with which to write their wet plank. They may make their wet plank smooth for the drys to ®wallow. They may have one of those placatory preliminary “whereases,” in which they will recite that they take Cheir wet stand reluctantly and only be- cause of “the failure of Republican ad- sninistrations to enforce over a period of 11 years.” and that sort of thing. But they will write their wet plank and they can vote it into the platform. They can cause the Democrats to go through the 1932 presidential campaign #s an officially and completely wet Danty. “Prospect Displeases Drys. Against this outlook what will the | many privately. An ex- ‘Woodrow Wilson’s cabinet, iliang G. McAdoo, publicly resents tes the wet program. An- tic ex-cabinet member ts in at an informal and private gath- of dry Democrats at which it is informally and privately, that won't “stand for” the wet plank. wife of an ex-national chairman hatrmen of the party participated in “he informal meeting already men- of dry protesters program, or any simi- Dot have ambition for political This statement should be saying that several dry ‘urus publiely [or gave Republican I ticket. All three found their personal i-Prohibitionist. | often some one comes in or writes in | |to give portentous news about pros- [ pects of a third party. The latest such | harbinger to come to the office of this | | writer brought excited news that dry Democrat William G. McAdoo is going | to form and lead a party of protest. In- | quiry revealed that Mr. McAdco is ab- | sorbed in writing the reminiscences of | | his lively life. A little group of dry consider calling a national meeting to organize a third party. The place and time of the proposed meeting are dis- cussed—but the meeting does not take place and the third party does not get | | itself born. | ""All of which reinforces the skepticism |of those who have becen long familiar | with politics. Tt is easy to dream a | third party, and many do it. But the | creation of a third party takes time and money and work and sweat. There is | not now in sight any one likely to pour |into the creation of a third party th2 | indispensable quantity of energy and effort—the grinding work that Theo- | dore Roosevelt and George W. Perkins went through to form a third party in 1912, or that the elder Senator La Fol- lette and his associates put into the set- ting up of his third party in 1924. | Dreamers of new political parties are like dreamers of new newspapers. More people dream new newspapers than dream any other occupation or profes- | sion. Hardly anybody ever dreams of |a new coffee business or a new cloak | and suit business. Thousands of ideal- | 1sts, however, dream of themselves as | creating a bectter newspaper than now | exists. ~ Almost none ever get around |to the business of renting a building |and buying presses and hiring typeset- | ters. Such as make the attzmpt usually | find that their new newspaper, after it is created, does mot differ greatly from | the old ones. And so of dreaming third | partics. To actually launch a new party, | to provide the bones and ribs. the gir- | cers and pillars of the structure, calls | for qualities that the idealist and the | dreamers do not always have. Republican Ticket Possible. Dismissing the idea of a third party, the next possible course for the dry Democrats, after and if their own party goes wet, is to support the Republican | tickst (assuming the Republicans are |dry, or dryer than the Democrats). | Doubtless many dry Democrats will do that. Doubtless many of the rank and file ameng them will quietly vote the Republican ticket. Possibly & few dry Democratic leaders may publicly follow that course, may publicly counsel voters to do the same, may make themselves formal leaders of a bolt. A few dry Democratic leaders may do that, but it is likely to be only a few. Ap~ the few will not include any who x4w hold high political office or hope to have political careers. Such | will be detcrred by the memory of 1928. |In the 1928 campaign, when the wet Smith was the Democratic candidate, just three im) nt dry, Southern Dem- and ranmy supported w political careers curtailed. One of the three was the vencrable Senator Sim- mons of North Carolina—and he is no longer a Senator. Another was Senator Democrats have met several times to | [ Heflin of Alabama: he, too, no longer wears the toga. The third was Tom | Love of Texas, and he was rather disas- | | trously set back in his hope to be Governor. | These examples will be remembered. | | To the extent that Southern dry Demo- | crats depart from the party when and | if it goes wet: to the extent that they by mocrats now in the Senate or House rticipated in the informal private eeting already mentioned; that many may yet protest publicly; that three Senators, Robinson of Arkansas, Significance of King’s Fall Alfor | | | | | AS AN ARMY OFFICER. BY DAVID LLOYD GEORGE. ONDON.—This year marks the coming of age of a widespread movement throughout the world for the abolition of monarchies. L the most potent throne in the world. Just twenty-one years ago, in 1910, | King Manuel of Portugal was driven from his throne, to be replaced by Senor Braga, first President of the Por- tuguese Republic. In 1911 a revolution setting up of a republic these in 1912. Until the early years of this twentieth century monarchy was, with only iso- lated exceptions, the normal and all but universal form of government through- broke out in China, which ended in the | out Europe, Asia and Africa. Since | 1910 countries with an aggregate popu- iation of 755,000,000 have swapped Kings for Presidents. 23 Kings Lose Crowns. i The movement for the abolition of monarchies, which began 21 years ago, | was immensely speeded up by the Great | ‘War and has continued since, until to- | day we find a broad belt across two | continents. from Kamschatka to the | Spanish Peninsula, from the Arctic | Ocean to the Himalayas, which bas | been swept bare of crowns and thrones. ‘The casualties to European monarch- | les between the outbreak of the Great | |rope. By April 15, 1931, this number 1 bad been reduced to 14. In addition to those 14 remaining sovereign rulers of Europe, kings and | princes are still to be found in Japan and the southern half of Asia. It is one of the paradoxes of history | that monarchy has survived in Europe most hnfpuy in a group of countries | where the people are most strongly | characterized by independence of | thought and love of personal liberty. | | > ‘OF SPAIN IN HIS ROYAL ROB Dwellers around the North Sea—the British, the Dutch and the Scandina ans—are stubborn and independent pi- oneering broods who from the days of the first Vikings have pushed their res- olute way about the world, breezily self- assertivs and not over reverential of established authority. Yet it is pre- cisely among these people that kingship has survived and cannot even be classed as a dangerous trade, while most of the thrones of Europe have tumbled in | the mud. Retain High Standards. It must be added that this group of nations maintains the highest standard | This movement celebrated its | War and the present day may be sum- |of living in Europe and that their gen- | majority by hurling a King from one of | marized as follows: On August 4. 1912, | eral leve? of education and culture will | the most ancient thrones—at one time | there were 37 sovereign rulers in Eu- | challenge comparison with those in any republican countries. ‘The survival of kingship among them is indeed attributable to precisely these characteristics. Their individualism and independence led to an early develop- ment of democratic principles and methods at a time when royalty was still the only recognized form of state government, and their monarchs were forced by them to concede reluctantly and step by step the ever-growing limi- tations upon their autocracy. / 0o Loses Throne Because of Abandonment of Constitutional Government. AS A POLO PLAYER. | As a result power passed steadily from | the crown and its narrow aristocratic | circle to the far wider but more stable | middle classes, and when revolution was |in the air in other lands these nations | had already secured a sufficlently wide distribution of power to the people to be able to secure its extension and the carrying out of needed reforms without a resort to revolutionary upheavals or the abolition of the monarchy. On the | other hand. in aH countries which have lost their Kings since the war the crown was up to the hour of its overthrow a far more autocratic element in the m: chinery of government than it is among the Nordis group (had Don Alfonso realized this fact in time he would still have been King). a there wi (Continued on Fourth Page.) | | |Government Monopoly Proposed Yield Huge Revenue and Act as Curb on Traffic in Drug. CHINA MAY SELL OPIUM, BITTERLY FOUGHT IN U. S am. fact. nevertheless, important in estimating what may hap- pen, that dry Democrats having present active public careers which they might compromise are reluctant to appear in public opposition to what is apparently to be the party's official program. Somy are even ready to “go along” keeping their protests silent. The reason is that the wet program seems to promise party success. Dry leaders in active publie life hesitate to fill the traditional role of trouble-makers; they hesitate, in the popular phrase. to “throw a monkey A Democrats may do after the event, after | Americans for yea wrench” into a machinery wrich, in the minds of most Democratic leaders, | support the Republican ticket (assum- |ing it is dry, or drier than the Demo- crats), they will do so quietly, probably in an unorganized and leaderless way. Even so, there may b: a good many of them. | The third course for dry Democrats who may be disappoint=d by their party going wet is the familiar formula for pacific protest in the world of politics— to use election day as an opportunity to go “fishing.” All this has been about what the dry |and if their party goes officially wet. | Equally interesting and more immedi- | BY FREDERIC WILLIAM WILE. ORD has just reached Washington from authentic quarters that the Chinese government is seriously con- sidering the establishment of an opium monopoly. In effect such action would be tantamount to the legalizing, under official supervision, of a traffic which in the United States is looked upon as criminal and which have be°n trying to suppress in China itself. The presence in China this Spring | now seems set to produce a Democratic |ate is the question, what will the dry, of two executive officials of the League national victory President in 1932. The expectation of victory is a power- ful cohesive, a salve, an emollient. a sugar coating for what may be dis- agreeable in the world of private con- viction. and a Democratic Question of Two Sides. The answer to the question. what will the dry Democrats do. divides itself in two. What will they do in anticipation, what effort will they make to prevent the party from going wet? And what will they do after the event. when and if the party goes officially wet? ‘To consider the second question first, the dry Democrats, after and if the party has gone wet, can either (a) form, or uni with others in forming, & third party: or (b) vote the Repub- lican ticket, assuming the Republican party is dry, or at least more dry than the Democrats; or (c) confiné their protest to remaining away from the polls. As to these three possible courses, the first, the forming of a third party does not present any present evidence of coming to fruit. = third party seems to inspire reluct- ance, disavowal, among those who rgight normally be most expected to form it. drys seem reluctant to form a third party. Their natural allies in such an enterprise, the Western Progressives, seem equally to sby from the notion. ‘The very idea of | Democrats do now, what will they do |to prevent the party from going wet. or at least to protest against its going wet? Dry Fight Unquestionable. he dry Democrats will fight. Let there be no doubt of that. When and if Chairman Raskob fin wet plank into the Do form he will know he has been through an experience of a sort that doesn't often take place in the arenas familiar to him, the decorous directors’ rooms of business corporations. The kind of hat can be touched off by | ¥ 1 for a wet plank has been show y what followed his introduc- tion of it at the meeting of the Demo- cratic National Committee in March, when three dry Democratic Scnato: Rob: n of Arkansas, Hull of Tennes- see and Morrison of North Carolir chose to accept the mild-mannered M Raskob’s suggestion as a declaration of | war. Mr. Raskob will sce more of | during the 13 months which inter before the Democratic National Con tion in June of next year adopts a plat- and names a presidential can- ne just possible. though only faintly . that the drys may check their h determination and 1t | poss! wet ghairman. Wit Not only do the Southern |orgauzation, the drys might make Mr. Huge fortunes Raskob's victory so costly as to be of little value. In such a fight the drys woulg have some extraordinary allies from the wet side. Not all the wet of Nations, a Frenchman and a Pole, and of a distinguished Englishman, Sir Arthur Salter, 0 recently re- igned as director of the economic and finance section of the League, has glven rise to the impression that Geneva s supporting the idea of a Chinese opium monopoly. If it is, the League's apparent motive is a belief that the opium traffic would be better regulated under such circumstances. Restriction of the international traffic in narcotics to legitimate purposes is one of the League’s main programs. In a fe weeks there will be held at Geneva another international confer- ence for limitation of narcotic drugs. Question to Be Aired. The whole question of government monopolies will be aired on that oc- casion. Nationalist China, this writer is in- formed, is weighing the pros and cons of an opium monopoly for two reasons, first, to control the traffic, and, sec- ondly, to derive for the Chinese treas- ury revenue now going into the pock- ets of opium bootleggers, both foreign and domestic. Existing prohibitory laws are about as effective in prevent- ing illicit use of the drug as liquor prohibition is in the United States. Bootlegging is rampant and universal. are being made out of the traffic. India, Persia, ‘Turkey, | Greece, Jugoslavia and the Dutch East Indies are said to be “cleaning up” handsomely and, of course, Chinese The principal leader and spokesman of | Demovrats want & wet plank in_the | growers of poppy as well. The Chinese the Western Progressives, Senator Nor- | platfosm. Ex-Senator Jim Reed of Mis- | government does not believe it can ris of Nebraska, practically disavows souri, for example, though as wet as the | suppress opjum-smcking and the at- the idea. Senator Norris says the likely | Misslssippi River, regards the idea of a | tendant evils, but it thinks matters program of those who are disappointed | wet glank in the Democratic platform | would be no worse—and might with the two major party nominations as gadness. He thinks, as most Demo- | much better—if strict supervision of (assuming both™ are disappointing, | cray, leaders do, that the party Las a | the traffic is taken over by the na- which may not be so) is to use the elec- | reg. chance to win, and he deplores the | tional authorities. be | tion holiday as an opportunity to go|rawang of the prohibition issue as an | The financiz aspect of a monopol fishing. Morover. there is a weakness, almost a cleavage, in the tie which might give to Southern Democrats and West- ern Progressives the common ground for a third party. The cleavage is the same that is cutting deep divisiorg everywhere in politics—prohibition. Ty Southern drys want a third party for she sake of its dryness; the Western P ives want it for the sake of what they call the “economic issues, meaning, chiefly, the power issue. The ‘Western wm.mmmn was officlally and deliber- ately and affirmatively silent on prohi- bition; they decricd prohibition as an jue, exiled it from their proceedings. 'he explanation is that many of the Western Progressive leaders, La Follette nd Blaine of Wisconsin, for example, ore wet. ‘The net of which, for the purposes of Ghe present article, is that the Demo- eratic drys in the South and elsewhere @lo not at this time seem likely either to gunln & third party of their own or unite with the Western Progressives a third party. No doubt we shall continue to hear @ read of a third party. Once in so ( date must be kept in mind gy every step . cncugh and promptly enough. ur, gcessary wedge driven into the perty fronit. Reed has, moreover, a a oa- joa of Chairman Raskob op &2 counts regards him as % %rash, wtruder from tre world of Musl “Back to the |cash register.” say Reed will help the dry Democrats re- sist Raskob’s wet plank. It will be a fantastic alliance, but politics sometimes makes strange fellowship: A good many other wet Democrats will up to a certain point help the dry Democrats resist Raskob’s wet plank. already stood beside the drys in the opening skirmish at the Democratic | National Committee meeting in March. | " The drys have one leverage commonly lost sight of. The fight in the national convention will be on two points—first, to write a wet plank, and, second, to name a wet presidential candidate. ‘To win the first point, the wet plank, Chairman Raskob needs to command only a majority of the delegates. But to win the second point, to dictate the | nominee, he must command two-thirds of the delegates. The Democratic rule requiring two. | thirds to nominate a presidential candi the Chines freely admit, enters con- | of any consideration of strategy and results. To state the rule the other way round, the dry Democrats need to com- mand only a third of the delegates in | order to prevent the nomination of a | wet. Wth one-third the delegates the drys can veto any nomination. The drys will have—or at least readily can have—the necessary third of the | delegates. That the drys can have a Progressives want to ignore | So distinguished a person as Gov.| third cf the delegates on their side is ; their recent conference at| Pranklin Roosevelt of New York has|as certain as that Mr. Raskob and the wets will have a majority of them. Mr. Raskob and his majority can write the wet plank. But the drys, with their third, can prevent the naming of a wet presidential nominee. Under this condition the chief reason for thinking Chairman Raskob will have his way is that his side is working, 15 arranging to have wet delegates come to the convention, whereas the drys are doing nothing equivalent to that. Mr. Raskob’s wet associates, because they are alert and energetic, will bring about the selection of wet delegates from terri- tory which the drys might command 1 they would go to work energetically to! spicuously into their calculations. It has been cstin the Nanking to the amount of $50,000,000 or $100,000,000 a ycar. |12 their people viil s:ioke oplum and | despite the campaign of education waged for decades to wean them from the habit, it is feared thev will, the Chinese | authorities consider it would be better to divert the fat profits from foreigners and native bootieggers into the impov- | erished strong box of the Nationalist | government. | United States Protest Unlikely. | Although Americans have been in the | forefront of the movement to stamp out the opium evil in China, there is little probability that the United States vould | officially protest azainst a monopoly if | the Nanking governmen decided to cre- | ate one, We would be, under interna- | tional practice, as little justified in op- | posing it as we would, for instance, in {objecting to a liquor mcnopoly in Can- |ada or Great Eritain. | China has a neighoor, the kingdom of Siam, which has long operated a gov- | ernment monopoly in cpium. Borneo, |in the Dutch East Indies, also regulates traffic in the drug. Various forms of | government monopolics exist. elsewhere | in the East. Advocates of monopoly contend that so long as commerce in | narcotics is left to private concerns wholly interested in profits. there will | be little decrease in ‘the illicit trafc. | Efforts will continue to be concentrated {on developing the volume of busines: | On the other band, under a monopoly | system, effort will be made, presumably, to do as little business as is compatible | with legitimate needs. Opponents of | monopoly are against i+ chiefly because they fear it would sustain a bootleg in- dustry in drugs. The forthcoming international opium conference at Geneva will have before it a draft convention providing for “facilitating the limitation of the man. ufacture of narcotic drugs to the world’s legitimate requirements for medical and | | scientific purposes and regulating their distribution.” | Protest to Leaders. America’s foremost anti-opium cru- sader, now in Washington and who is | Just back from China, addressed a vigor- | | ous protest to Chinese leaders when the | monopoly proposition recently came to public notice in the East. s China | weakening at last in her fight against | opium?” the protest asked. “This is | exactly what her enemics have been | trying to bring to pass for the last two centurics. America led the battle at ‘The Hague in 1912 and was mainly in- strumental in forcing the reluctant European powers to sign the convention providing for controlling the produe- tion and distribution of raw opium. Have the Chinese forgotten what Bishop Brent and Representative Stephen G. Porter did to save them from the de- structive effects of the opium traffic? Does China no longer remember the British_attempt tosget opium legalized after Britain’s first oplum war with your country, and your Emperor’s firm reply: ‘Nothing will induce me to derive revenue from the vic: and misery of my people. Let that be China's reply today.” What effect such fervent appeals will have uppn the Nanking government | remains to be seen. Evidently Chin is looking upon the project as an eco- nomic problem, rather than a moral issue, though it seems to be hoped that moral benefits might flow from a! monopoly, as well as revenue, if the . monopoly established rea) regulation. | W 'STIMSON-HOOVER POLICY PRAISED IN LATIN AMERICA Stand in Nicaraguan Situation Seen as New Era in Relations—Trade Exhibit Warning to United States. BY GASTON NERVAL. HATEVER criticlsm the State Department may draw in this country for its new Niceraguan policy, this will certainly have far greater results in gaining the good will and sympatbies of the Latin Americans than any other single act of the Washington Government since _President Hoover himself crossed the Equator, three years ago. “seeking inter-American friend- ships. For a number of years the Latin | Americans have been m aiaing that no foreign power has the right to pro: tect with armed forces the property or the lives of its citizens living in & Laf 1 republic, when endangered by internal | disorders. This has heen the chief argument of opposition to United States intervention in Nicaragua, Haiti, Santr Domingo, etc., whenever tne luefackets” were sent there in ac: cordance with what was supposzd to Le a principle of American foreign policy All that often repeated talk of “Yankee imperialism,” “dollar diplo- macy,” etc.. which has lately so greatly paired pan-American relations, has Deen built upon the charge that the United States, in landing Marines for the protection property in disturbed Latin-American countrics, was violating the sovereignty of those independent states and inter- fering with their own domestic affairs. The lives and proverty of American citizens residing in a foreign country, according to the Latin theory, become subject to the laws and conditions of | that particular country the moment they set foot on its territory. The citi- zen of the United States who emigrates to a Latin-American nation snd en gages there in business, the ILatins con- tend, is well aware of the difficnities he may have to go through, and in under- taking the Tisk he is automatically ac- cepting full responsibility for it and re- nouncing any outside protection or help when in conflict with the national laws. Anything else, according to the Latin authorities, would amount to placing the foreign interests in a privileged position in respect to the local ones, which have to submit entirely to the laws of the country and are subject to the same dangers and possible damages as the former in times of civil war. Moreover, the Latin-Americans argue that to test the justice of these princi- ples 1t is only necessary to stop and think for a moment how absurd it would be to imagine a small Latin American country of ths Caribbean landing armed troops on the shoras of Uncle Sam for the protection of that country’s citizens -and property in the United States. ON THE RIGHT TRACK. Secretary Stimson’s announcement that the United States will not protect | with armed force the property of American citizens menaced by Nica- raguan bandits is a recognition of the Latin American theory of non-inter- ference with their domestic affairs. The Secretary has gonc ever further by stating that the Government of the United States “cannot undertake gen- eral protection of Americans through- t “that country with American and by ‘recommending “all Americans who do not feel secure under the protection afforded ‘them by the Nicaraguan government, through the Nicaraguan National Guard, to with- draw from the country.” The official communique from the State Department added that “those who remain do so at their own risk of American lives and | 1and must not expect American forces |to be sent inland to their aid.” thus | making clear that neither for the sake | of American-owned property, nor even that of American lives endangered by the rebels, will change be made in the policy of non-interference and methodi- cal withdrawal of Marines from Nica- raguan soil, with which President | Hoover and Sechretary Stimson are | atoning for the errors of previous ad- ministrations. It is easy to understand the-favor- able reception that the Stimson an- nouncement has met with in Latin America Editorial comments that the cable has transmitted praise loudly the new attitude of the State Depart- ment, uring that the so-called | “Hoover-Stimson” policy marks a new |and more successful era in inte American relations. > | In the United States the stand | |adopted by Secretary Stimson has met some unfavorable ecriticism, but | the Secretary has answered this with | a logical and clear definition of his | {policy. “The problem before the Gov- | ernment today is not a problem of the | protection of its citizens in Nicaragua | |from a war,” he says, “but from murder | and assassination.” And this protec- tion. he believes, should be carried out by the local government of Nicaragua. | Certainly, “the United States cannot renounce the principle that when the | government of one country is unable | to_function owing to insurmountable difficulties another government would | be fully justified in protecting the lives | and property of its nationals,” to use | the words of former Secretary of State Hughes. but this is not the case in the present Nicaraguan situation. If| the country were swept by civil war and thrown into a state of anarchy, the American Government would be right in protecting its citizens from the in- evitable catastrophes of war, but. in- stead, there is today an established legal government in Nicaragua, and it is the exclusive task of this govern- ment to avoid and punish the at- tacks coming from a small group of rebels who, as Secretary Stimson indi- | cates, are treated as outaws by the| Nicaraguan authorities. | ‘The State Department seems to be | in the right position. The problem at Nicaragua is an internal one. The local government of Nica a alone must confront it. If the followers of Sandino, as it is claimed, lack the | confidence and moral support of the | Nicaraguan population, they should be easily overcome by the Nicaraguan National Guard. If, on the other hand. they do have such popular support, if there is anything in their cause that interprets a national sentiment. then | the new attitude of the State Depart- ment would be even more commendable. A SUCCESSFUL SHOW. | Press reports from the Argentine | capital announce that the British Im- perial Trade Exhibition at Buenos Aires will have to keep its doors open for a period longer than that originally planned. . The closing date had been fixed for April 27, but in the first 20 days half a maillion people had already visited the exhibition, thus surpassing the expecta- tions of its promoters, who had esti mated an attendance not larger than 500,000 persons during the whole ex- hibition period of six weeks. The huge exhibit, housing $20,000,000 worth of British samples will therefore remain open to the public until further notice. ‘This announcement will be of interest to American exporters. Not until very recently have they realized the impor- tance of the earnest efforts which Great | | Days of 1914—Di BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. ARIS.—Last week I wrote here of | the first effects in Europe of the Austro-German Anschluss pro- posal. Following the first explo- sive emotion there was a tem- porary lull, which continues at the time at which I write, but may be interrupted at any moment. It would be saying far too much to compare this lull with that which came immediately after the Sera- jevo crime, to be shattered finally by the Austrian ultimatum to Belgrade. 1t would be too much because no dan- ger of war in any present time lurks behind the incident. as in 1914, to believe the incident termi- nated is totally unfounded and can:lead to unpleasant awakening. The truth is that this incident has served, like a flash of lightning, to disclose the situa- | tion which prevails in Europe at the present hour, and explains an anxiet, existing in all foreign offices and in formed circles which certainly is with- | out parallel in the last seven years. To take France, where I have been living for some weeks, as an example, | | there is no mistaking the fact here that in and out of Paris popular feeling is | rising. popular suspicion is spreading, and the pressure upon the Laval cabi- net to do something condemns it to take a line at Geneva which may bring all the fundamental antagonisms of con- temporary Europe squarely into the open, Division of Powers Looms. ‘What one now faces is the possibility of a swift and complete division of Eu. Tope into two cpposed groups of powers, with Prance and Germany heading the respective groups, Italy tending toward the German side, and a British Labor government striving with equal earnest- ness to prevent such a division and to keep out of the French camp. The German stroke has been so far | sucéessful as to demonstrate that Brit- | ain will not join: France in any opposi- tion to the Anschluss, save that which is based upon juridicial ounds. But, | whether legal or not, France means to prevent it. because for political reasons | 1t would be fatal to the whole French conception of peace and security in Europe. As for Italy, while she has no warm | enthusiasm for seeing Austro-German union in the future, she remains far more concerned with Jugoslav dan- gers in the present. And since Jugo- slavia is an ally of Prance, Italy has so far declined to join Fri in any pro- tests. She is more afraid of an imme- diate Slav claim upon Trieste than of an eventual pan-German push to the Adriatic. But the outstanding circumstance in Europe today is that while on the sur- face conversations concerning disarma- ment and co-operation continte, be- neath the surface wherever people in- terested or concermed in intermational relations the talk the character of before the World War. Europe is talking about its affairs in the tone, the manner and the terms vhich were universal before 1914; and, at least since Locarno, have been more or less laid aside. France Fears Danger. The Frenchman is historically-minded. Thus he has been placing the program of Austro-German tariff union along- side that of the North German union, which was the prelude to Sadowa and Sedan. The announcement of the pro- posal rang innumerable alarm bells in his mind. Moreover, the striking cir- cumstance, as Andre Tardieu remarked to me, and all who are in Paris have noted, lies in the fact that the little people, who are seldom concerned about international affairs and are generall; ignorant of them, instinctively felt that something of importance to them had happened; that Prance was, in some undefined may, entering a new danger 20e, Inevitably Briand and his policy were the first targets. Before the coup of Vienna the presidency was his for the asking. Now it is not so sure, although there is developing a feeling that the best thing might be to get rid of both Briand and his policy by shutting the statesman up in the prison of the Elysee Palace, the French White House, in which even Poincare was helpless. In a relatively few months Germany has succeeded in arousing the appre- hensfon of most of her neighbors. Po- land took alarm over the campaign speeches of Treviranus claiming the Polish Corridor. France began to be uneasy over German demands at the preparatory disarmament conference for equality in armaments, which means in terms of present-day Europe the right 0 rearm. Crzechoslovakia has seen in the Anschluss move a threat to its very existence. And since these three coun- tries are'allles. the national feeling in each has reacted upon the feelings of | the others. Briand Loses Prestige. Consequently Briand has lost pres tige, not alone at home but abroad. His policy. which is that of reconciliation and co-operation, has been heavily dis- | credited. alike in Paris, in Prague and | in Wars and hardly less in Belgrade, On the other hand, in Germany, if the Nazi-Socialist movement is suffer- Ing at least a temporary check, growing | { | Fears and Suspicions Recall Uneasy vision of Nations Feared in Foreign Offices. achieved permanent results. It has committed the Bruening government, representing sanity and order, to a for- eign policy which fixes the price of Ger- man co-operation as revision of fron- tiers and rearmaments, Anschluss and the termination of reparations pay- ments. Yet when the election speeches raised the issue of revision Germany was told, even in London, that it was impossible, because it was attainable only by war. ‘When the reparations question came up American. British and French repereus- slons disclosed the fact that repudiation would be fatal to German abroad and amendment out of the question at_the moment. In the preparatory disarmament com- mission the German thesis of equality in armament, which involved reduetion of the French army to the German level or increase of the German to the French, even Lord Cecil protested, ane Germany found England and Prance anged against her. Finally comes this Anschluss cpisode, disclosing a new bar- rier and a fresh veto. Germans Fear Ruin. All of this has to be set alongside the present German state of mind, which is universal and dynamic. The German | beople believe that the purpose of French | and Slav policy is to prevent German recovery, to condemn them to economic misery, accentuated by foreign tribute in the shape of reparations; to preserve the territorial mutilations, which mean the ruin of all the German East, terri- tories still German included. Feeling themselves economically, pelitically and racially persecuted, they see in the Anschluss affair final proof of French purpose, just as they see in the present economic crisis the consequence of the treaty of Versailles. ) But in all the circle about the Ger- man frontiers the Frenchman, the Pole and the Crzech identify this German effervescence with the old pre-war Ger- man state of mind, which, rightly or wrongly, they have come to view a definite light. You have. then, the very clear situation of a German people clamoring for rights without which they believe they cannot live, and their neighbors seeing in this clamor the threat of & new assault. The thing which makes this mew crisis different from past episodes that it follows a long period of sive anu-ionwt.t lllt'h not people or government hinking of war, of making war, but it is precisely that the masses in many nations are ’mm existing doubts, suspicions and ears. e ‘Again, not the least disturbing aspeet pidly involuntary agents of states of mind. bolicies nevitably opposition policies ine y encounter n and provoke controversy public opinion in every country becomes increasingly exacerbated. Again I emphasize the fact Europe is not on the edge of “mm' World War. At the very moment it almost certainly has many years of un- easy peace ahead of it. The real dan- ger is that of a relapse to that state of division, rivalry, mistrust and hatred out of which in the end wars have al- Ways come in Europe. The ideas and ideals which one associates with the League of Nations, with disarmament. !"fin lm;rn& are losing ground. De- cisive majorities of ] becom- ing cynical. S Thus this Summer is to :h real c{’hh, not merely e question of Anschluss or o other single disputed issue, but 'l"('-’!-\llg in the whole post-war conception ef peace, a crisis which may last right up to and through the disarmament con- ference which assembles next February. a crisis the outcome of which may weli g;t:'l;m.l;e ':glethq;- the World Wor anything in Eur — Jfi 3 ope but a few see in Europe a erisis over (lut of party divisions, it has already (Copyright. 1991.) Loss Found G GENEVA.—The last demographie analysis made by the League of Nations disclcses the fact that a falling off in marriages is to be noted, at least so far Marriages Show Decline in Euro = reatest in Germany Lithuania, Sweden and Iceland. Nor- way and the Irish Free showed a falling ofl.’ e as Europe is concerned. Spain being the most notable exception. Germany’s path to the altar led twice 731,157 that way in 1921, but the num- ber fell to 586,971 10 years later. Mean- time the population increassd 1,400.000 during the past five years alone, rather more than 600.000 in excess of deaths. Austria Hits Low Mark. Austria registercd a low note in the wedding peal during the same period, & drop in the scale from 81,223 to 49,414, population actually having increased nearly 300,000. The other half of the pre-war dual monarchy — Hungary — registers in about the same figures. Almost all the important European countries showed a decided decrease of marriages during the period. Spain in- creased hers from 165,224 to 170,355. In France the number declined from 455,543 to 339,014. In Italy, taking into consideration pre-war territory, the de- cline was from 425,682 to 285,089. Po- land fell from 317,498 to 204,788; Great Britain from 368,216 to 343,867; Switzer- land from 32,624 to 30,050; Czecho- slovakia from 1640 o 137,916, and Holland from 63,56 Increases e revealed As a corollary the birth regiatry should show a more or less immediate response in what the experts call the demographic curve. It seems to hold true of Germany, as births there fell off in the period by 413.741. The vari- ous eountries mentioned all ran y much true to form as to the b —Spain recording an increase of 15,700, Italy, Great Britain and France saw their birth rate lhl:::. the latter to the pations marriages are proportionally fewer than in Spein. for el':‘:pu, ‘where tural pursuits respact " (Continued on Fourth Page.) to Denmarl ntaig, Estonip, and, | tural states.