Evening Star Newspaper, January 5, 1930, Page 27

Editorial Page EDITORIAL SECTION he Sunday Star. | Part 2—12 Pages LONDON PARLEY SEEN AS POLITICAL CAUCUS Conference May Bring Europe to Verge of Crisis—Minority Governments’ Fates Held Doubtful. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. HEN one turns from the physical circumstances to | the political details of t.he‘i London conference, it is clear that the results may be expressed in one of three forms. There may be a five-power pact, following the of the Washington treaty and fixing the absolute and relative strength of the naval powers. There may be a three-power pact, adjusting British. Japanese and American tonnage. And there may l;emm ‘:‘nzle-’Amefim treaty disposing of the issue of parity. Manifestly a five-power pact would be most satisfactory. The American Un- dersecretary of State has been repre- | sented as saying the United States would accept nothing else. Actually Cotton did not say or mean this. His comment was intended to express the hope that it would be possible to at- tain what was most desirable, and foolith to aim at less. But if a five- power pact is impossible, the United States will sign a tripartite agreement. disguise the fact that the chances of a five-power pact are slight because of the French policy. For the French, London is preliminary and all decisions must be referred to Geneva. Put baldly, this means that France real- izes that at London she will be isolated, but in the League she is sure of the :::port of all of her European allles , and, in addition, of certain South American states. Furthermore, France refuses to rec- ognize the Italian claim to parity, while the Italians decline to accept any agreement that does not concede them equality with France. Thus you have the situation that the Tardieu government in France would fall if the prime minister accepted Italian parity at London, while Mussolini would suffer an incalculahle loss of tige if Grandi, his foreign min- ter, accepted a subordinate rank in Lhem ll’m of l"x't.m:e.“d & things considered, a five-power treaty seems out of the question. As for a four-power pact, with France or Italy left out, that would have little value, for, assuming what is probable —that ice would be out and Italy In—all Italian undertakings would be conditioned upon French naval pro- grams. Moreover, however irritated British and American opinion might be with French tactics, it is doubtful if the two governments would care to mix up in the Mediterranean mess to the extent of indorsing the Italian against the French thesis. Three Will Agree. Then what about the triparite al- tive? Here one must say at once that the difficulties as between the three powers themselves, which not neg- ligible, are far from disturbing. The Japanese visit to again one comes up against the PFrench factor. France has announced that she will capture the naval rank she held up to the eve of the World War, when she was obliged to concentrate all her Tesources on manufacturing shells, not ships, and after the war in rebuild- ing her devastated areas instead of her navy. VY. Not only does France thus demand s tonnage double that which she now , but she purposes to employ the tonnage chiefly in two categories, submarines and cruisers. Such alloca- tion might easily mean that she would spend 300,000 tons in cruisers and 100,- 000 tons in submarines. But this would be to expand her fleet in precisely the directions mest menacing to the British, and in the face of such a program, which the Italians would claim the right to duplicate, the British position | in Europe would be compromised. Therefore the British in any tri- partite treaty would be compelled to stipulate that while they accepted par- ity on the basis of the Wi n and Rapidan agreements, namely, 525,000 tons to 525,000 in capital ships an 339,000 tons to flfi.o&g 11:1‘ c{gmm, :‘l'll: larger figure bel eirs, they wo be compelled to 5Xplnd their cruiser tonnage to keep pace with the French and at such a rate as to preserve the relative strength. Britain Could Block All Thus while the French and Italian claims and programs have no interest for the United States and little for the Japanese, both countries would find their own naval program affected by the British action in the face of pro- grams of vital importance to Britain. For Great Britain cannot be expected to sacrifice her security in the interests | of parity. Obviously then a three-| power pact subject to immediate re- vision, involving almost constant dis- cussions between the interested govern- | ments to determine the preservation of | the balance in new constructions, would be not only unsatisfactory in itself, but | TOUS. d"‘l‘{’e danger would lie, as the noted British al critic, Hector Bywater, has pointed out, in the fact that Amer- ican suspicion might easily be stirred by the spectacle of & steady expansion of the British cruiser fleet despite the Londen agreement, and British resent- ment not less quickly moved if the United States seemed to demand that Britain should ignore her own security to sult American views. Nevertheless some form of three- wer pact is likely. And it is more mely because neither Britain nor the United States wants a two-power pact. Such a treaty would seem both in the United States and in Europe little more than “the sign of an actual alliance, and on the one hand it would rouse American opposition and on the other lead - to European counter offensives directed at Britain. Since, however, Jaj is on her side ready and reason- ‘br,nfl!l'e is no real necessity to dally with the two-power idea. So far, however, it will be seen that the possible agreements are chiefly political and do not envisage the slight- est reduction inl nleets.meos L‘b:mcon- merely lega y na- mmn-l Mmfiy a vast naval construction on the part of the three powers pos-| fy,] it fleets. m‘flo' en is the London conference to give even the semblance of a dis- armament conference? Already there is absolute refusal on the part of the French and Japanese to consider not alone abolition but even reduction of | haj sul e tonnage. More submarines » like more cruisers are the certain con- comitants of London. And the French must again be extended to the Amer- ican and Japanese navies. There remains the possibility of do- ing something in the matter of battle- ships, and here at last is a field in which there is some prospect of a successful five-power pact, for France and Italy have abandoned the capital ship. Nevertheless the possibilities are limited because Secretary of State Stimson has declared in advance that the battleship remains the corner stone of American naval defense and aboli- tion is thus out of the question. To Postpone Replacement? It is still possible to pastpone re- placement. In the next fivé years the British and American navies are to scrap between a third and a half of their capital ships and replace them. To postpone replacement, extending the life of capital ships from 20 to 25 years, would be possible, indeed sim- ple. It would mean, in fact, a naval holiday in battleships to counterbal- ance the naval carnival in cruisers, which is now ineluctable. Beyond much doubt all five powers would sign such a t and would doubtless also accept the similar proposal of limiting Treplacements in the future to ships of 25§M lnstel(}lcf 35,000 tons. ut even here parity propagates a problem. The United States h‘:.l not parity with the British in capital ships, it will only attain it in 1936. Today 'g'lsz British have 20 ships to our 18. They also have an advantage in tonnage esti- mated variously at from 30,000 to 60,000 tons. To agree to a naval holiday will amount to postponing the arrival of parity for five years. And it must be seen that even the naval holiday does not actually repre- sent the saving of money but simply the postponement of expenditure. For five years the United States will concentrate upon building a huge new fleet of crui- sers. At the end of that time it will be ready to resume replacing its battle- ships. Thus in the very nature of things the conference must be one of armament, not of disarmament, of con- struction, not reduction. Like Political Caucus. not goj & prayer meeting but to a political nuc\u?nne- tween France and Great Britain and between Italy and France the present state of feeling is very unpleasant. The e events left smoldering embers which may easily flame into a first class fire. The Macdonald government, for its own difficult political situation, must seek to give the impression of close and intimate Anglo-American association. France, on her side, is bound to attempt to establish as a fact an alleged Anglo- American attempt to set up naval hege- mony in the world and undermine the ;':u:e ‘:t mu&m, The n;u‘lfin maneu- r take advantage of opportu- mwntrge:;.:ufinumdmmu pression ance is prevent- disarmament. oo ent. Again, the French, British and Jap- anese representatives at London speak for minority governments at home, which might fall overnight. Insecure domestic political situation makes for hesitating and rigidly limited action in foreign affairs. In fact Tardleu is the captive of the Nationalist Right in the French Chamber and Macdonald has to reckon on the one hand with Tory de- termination to support the admiralty and on the other with the disloyalty of the Labor extremists, who reject all counsels of moderation. In 1922 the Washington conference made the occupation of the Ruhr in- evitable because it led to the overthrow of Briand and the substitution of Poin- care. That the London conference may have consequences for the Continent only less serious is as clearly perceived in Europe as it is ignored in America. (Copyright, 1930.) Prisoners’ Aid Club Is Formed in China| For the purpose of extending help to discharged prisoners of the munlcpl'pll jail, & society has been formed and is to get assistance from the municipal treas- ury. Headed by foreigners, the society points to the fact that there are at present 4,800 Chinese prisoners in jail, and that 40 are Imnf discharged daily. As many of the public who pay $1 an- nually will be mace members of the society. Attention was focused upon d | th- municipal jail and its overcrowded condition following the sentence of two Mexican citizens who had lost their extraterritorial rights and were, there- fore, sentenced in a Chines~ court to serve a year's term for operating a gambling resort. Conditions in the jail have been described as being medieval in the extreme, notwithstanding it is under British jurisdiction. While most of the prisoners are Chinese, there are also Russians and those of other na- tionalitles who have lost ‘“extrality” rights through the lapse of treaties or voluntary abolition on the part of their home countries. Morality in Talkies Pleasing to Clergy Hollywood will find that Latin coun- tries with traditions of the Spanish Roman Catholic Church welcome the talkies more than the old-time movies on sheer grounds of morality, if nothing else. If the talkies depict crimes, at least the talk explains them, while pan- tomime aione serves merely to show new ways of crime to simple-minded spec- tators, who often gain the impression that the criminals go scot-free. Manila is experiencing baneful effects from the movies, which will hardly come from gun scenes such as those exhibited in the talkies. “Broadway,” for example, 2 talkie shown here, reveals in its dia- logue that those who shoot each other are persons of evil character; the Ma- nilan will not conclude that killing is really sanctioned by recent Americans, only that a show has been built around the lurid lives of ple on the loose. This factor will help popularize the talkies and disarm much clerical disap- proval. That the talkies avoid the ex- tremes of the silent movies will be good fa:dthl.s branch of American export trade. Dentist’s For;:eps Swallowed by Lady Dentists will have to be more care- in France. Take the case of Dr. Blank X. Blank, who has just had to pay 20,000 francs ($1,000) in damages to Mme. Lionel Nastarg, an indignant mnt who sued him and won her suit. n the lady went to have a tooth repaired, she was nervous, and the un- ppy dentist got nervous, too. “Wider!” he commanded, “open wider ‘There- upon he began prodding with his for- ceps, but unhappily he prodded too far, insistence upon submarines involves t=- British in further expansi~~ ~° ‘rstroyer flect, a mc omen 'ady. And to get them back cost Dr. “lank 20,000 francs. . and the forceps disappeared—inside the | ti WASHINGTON, D. C, BY C. PATRICK THOMPSON. N THE formal parks and painted aces of old Versailles unwonted ammerings and sawings, splash of paint brush and smack of con- crete falling into blue clay beds of fountains silent these last 200 years are disturbing the ghosts of the regime ancien. Shades of naughty beauties whose sins were the gossip of an hour in Marie Antoinette’s day peer inquisitively (so_they say) from dim corners at workmen busy with tattered tgpestries and faded paintings unto by renovator’s hand since the Paris com- mune turned the royal urmgery into a death cellar; and down the statue- haunted avenue of Trianon men have seen fitting ghosts of King's favorite and Queen's lover—curious, no doubt, as to what the nolsy arrival of masses of drainpipes, timber and workmen's paraphernalia may portend. It is even whispered that the gtately of Louis XIV, the Sun King, 1f, in his great wig and hi%h- heeled shoes, been seen in the King's bed chamber, cocking an inter ested royal ear in the direction of the tourquoise clock which ticked out his last moments and the last moments of Louis XV, and some time later stopped, but now magically and majestically ticks and chimes again. It had been falling into decay, this | vast old palace which is the complete | and perfect expression of that fantastic | epoch which began with Louis XIV and | BY RAYMOND B. FOSDICK Former Undersecretary General of the League of Nations. I flerce debate in this country, the argument was largely one of rognostication. The would involve such and such a_ devol- opment. The prophesies were hopeful or gloomy, dependent upon the likes advance. Those who felt adventurous | were willing to take a chance, while others were disinclined to run the risks possible to appraise the result with some | degree of detachment, and certainly with more exact instruments than were avail- launched. | ‘To begin with, the great fear of 10 years ago that the League would become has not been realized. This fear, we now see, was based upon the conception of the e as an instrument more or has accurately reflected the public or | official opinion and desire of the natfons | in the Council and in the Assembly. en it has been effective in correcting some abuse or in promoting some com- mon purpose; occasionally it has been Agency of Its Members. ‘The Council was magnificent in set- tling the Greco-Bulgarian quarrel in dling of the Polish-Lithuanian dispute in 1920, and none too courageous in its attack on the Italian-Greek difficulty been merely the agency of its constituent | members. It has been a horse that could | be driven in any direction. Whether it to the common denominator of a unani- mous vote. The ey of a war horse out ot control, breathing fire from its terialized. In the second place, the question of sanctions which bothered us so much ticles XII to XV—has ceased, in the practical working out of the experi- ment, to have the overshadowing im- sumably they could bite. Tndeed, the mere threat to use them availed to ar- rest Jugoslav incursions into Albania kind of sanction. It is not by economic boycotts and ermed intervention that war has been tional public opinion. It is by focusing the attention of half a hundred na- tions upon special dangers that representatives of both hemisphe: blacks and whites, yellows and browns—in an atmosphere in which development of a forym where na- tions not only may explain, but where hey must explain, where a small na- EN years ago when the issue of the League of Nations was under would me this or that, and such an article of the covenant or dislikes of the prophets. There was no way to measure the experiment in involved. Now, after 10 years of operation, it is | able a decade ago, when with the war | hatreds still blazing the enterprise was | a “supergovernment,” robbing the na- tions of their sovereignty and initative, Leagu less divorced from the governments com- prising it. On the contrary, the League | Sometimes this opinion has been liberal; | sometimes it has been reactionary. Oft- impotent and even spineless in p- | pling with an international difficulty. 1925 and the Albanian-Jugoslav out- break in 1921. It was feeble in its han- arising out of the occupation of Corfu. In every case. however, the League has went forward or back depended upon its drivers' wishes, which had to be reduced nostrils, and trampling on the independ- ence of minority states, has not ma- 10 years ago—the League's teeth showing behind the phraseology of Ar- portance that was originally given to it. The teeth are still there and pre- in 1921. But the emphasis had, un- consciously perhaps, shifted to another averted during the last 10 years. It is by the slow development of an interna- threaten peace. It is by periodically bringing together around a table the frank discussion is natural and griev- ances can be ventilated. It is by the tion can call a great nation onto the carpet. If the League had existed in SUNDAY MORNING, JANUARY 5, 1930. P i ended in the howls of the Paris mob and the thud of Louis XVI's head fall- ing into the sawdust basket. Survives a Revolution. Its old owners dead and gone, their order vanished, it had managed to sur- vive a a revolution, a coup d'etat, Na- poleon, the citizen, King Louis Philippe (who played about with his architec- ture as an enr,ergrmns plumber might play about with the Pantheon); a couple of Prussian armies, multitudes of tourists and the great war. But it had not survived intact. From a palace it had become a museum. By the time the Prussians stamped in and made the celebrated hall of mirrors re- verberate with the proclamation of the German Empire, it was in a sad state of neglect, and it was beginning to qualify for a ruin when, half a century later, the successors of those empire bullders crept in to sign the death war- rant of the aforesaid empire and the Versailles treaty which ushered in the enigmatic post-war world. Everywhere windows sagged and let in wind and rain. The slate roofs over the big palace, the grand and petit trianons leaked, so that rain water lay in pools in the attics over the Galleries des Glaces and the Louis XIV and the Queen’s apartments. The nymphs and cherubs on the ceilings of the cen- tral part of the palace slowly dissolved, and whole pieces of the painted ceiling threatened to fall. Tapestries rotted on damp walls, paintings were dete- riorating, gilt had disappeared under P tarnish, lily pools had dried up and the reservoirs of fountains let the water filter through the trellis fences in the | park were down, sculptured figures of gods and goddesses poised high on corners threatened to fall into cobbled courtyards, where the grass grew be- tween the interstices of stones that were old when Rockefeller's great-great- grandfather was a baby. Rockefeller and the Versailles of the | gruous mixture. But John D. Rocke- | feller, jr.. belongs to this scene. He jarrived at the big palace in the Sum- | mer of 1924, escorted by the American architect Welles Bosworth, and surveyed the scene of deterioration and desola- tion. The French state was concen- trating at that time on the war-devas- tated areas and had no funds for the preservation of monuments. Impressed by Spectacle. Rockefeller was moved and impressed at the spectacle of so much frozen his- tory crumbling away, and gave $1,000,- 000 for “preserving and safeguarding” works in Versailles, Fontainebleau and Rheims, leaving the management of the |fund to a committee consisting of Ga- | briel Hanoteux and Maurice Poleoloque, | with Ridgely Carter of the Morgan {bank as treasurer. Welles Bosworth as |secretary and the French Ambassador |at Washington as president. _Versailles got 10,000,000 francs of the first dona- tion and 23,000.000 of a second Rocke- |feller donation of 40,000,000 francs made 'in the Spring of 1927. Stimulated by THE BOGY OF A WAR-HORSE OUT OF CONTROL, BREATHING FIRE. —Drawn for The Sunday Star by Robert Lawson. 1914, what would have happened if Austria had had to justify her posi- tion before 400 newspaper correspond- ents sending their reports to every country on earth? New Sanction Being Evolved. This is the new sanction which is slowly being evolved. This is the weap- on that the League s hammering into shape at the forge. The signifi- cance of this development was dra- matically ‘portrayed at the last As- sembly meeting in September, 1929, when the British delegation proposed the re-examination of Articles XII to XV, “in order to determine whether it is necessary to make any modifica- tions therein.” This study, which will be reported upon shortly, involves not only the necessity of harmonizing these sections of the covenant with the Kellogg pact, but raises the whole question of sanctions. Human ideas have evolved in 10 years and the ma- chinery of peace must keep pace with them. In the third place, the League has been far less concerned with strictly po- litical questions than either its friends or foes prophesied 10 years ago. one who glances over the agendas of the various Assembly or Council meet- ings will be struck by the overwhelm- ing preponderance of items that have to do with economic, humanitarian and social questions. Human slavery, re- lief work, refugees, trafic in women, international health, communications and transit, taxation, customs regula- tions, financial r‘vutruction, intel- | lectual co-operation—these are | problems that have absorbed the major attention of the League in its first 10 | years. 1Indeed, the League, contrary to any idea that its founders had, has be- come a vast clearing house, a center of technical service, where questions that overflow national boundary lines are taken up in continuous common council. ‘The friends of the League sometimes imagine that this idea of nations meet- ing together to promote certain com- mon purposes is more or less a new technique which the League introduced. As a matter of fact, it had been de- veloping for 50 years before 1920. The Universal Postal Union, created in 1878, substituted for the chaos of conflicting rates and routes systematized arrange- ments which now bind together the whole letter-writing world. The Inter- national Bureau of Weights and Meas- ures, formed b treaty in 1875, gave us definitions by which the gram carries the same significance in Paris and Tahiti, and the meter means the same thing in Valparaiso and New York. Our method of calculating time from an accepted prime meridian is the re- sult of & world-wide conference held in 1884. Similarly, we had universal con- ventions in regard to such matters as telegraph codes, submarine cables, col- lislons of ships, sanitary regulations and the navigation of harbors and in- land waterways. Even such a detail as concert pitch had been standardized by definite treaty and the music world had been tied together by this mutual understanding. From 1864 to 1914, 228 of these multipartite treaties and con- | Louis of France may seem an incon- | he the | 'DEMOCRATS HAVE CHANCE TO CAPTURE G. O. P. SEATS ':New Year Political Horizon Reveals Republicans at Numerical Disadvantage. Restoration of Versailles Famous Palace of Louis XIV Soon Will Have Old Splendors—Dramatic Vicissitudes Recalled THE GLORY THAT WAS VERSAILLES—THE F AMOUS PALACE AS IT APPEARED IN 1820. this example, the French government, Monuments, gave 15,000,000 francs. Under the ntific guidance of the | architects Patrice Bonnet and Pierre Francastel, these millions have worked wonders, although the wonders are | more apparent to_architects and those who have known Versailles for the last 10 or 20 years than to the casual tour- ist, who does the great palace in an our. | ""The decay has been arrested, the rot stopped. Engineers dried out the pal- ace. Over the Galerie des Glaces, | Louls XIV'S bedroom, the northern | aisle, the Attic Chimay, the Cours d'Honeur of the King and Queen, the Salon d'Hercule, the Hall of the Chapel, the Opera House foyer, the Alsle G briel, the Ministers’ buildings—over all these the old deterlorated slates were pulled off and the roofs remade in lead. Steam jets have restored to their ai thentic hues the colored marble pillars and white arches of the famous Colon- | nade, which heard the trillings of | Marie Antoinette and the click of the | Pompadour’s stilt heels. |, New woodwork on the windows of | the whole central part of the palace, | the aisles, the Grande Orangerie. New facades for the Ministers’ Aisles and | the Opera House over the reservoirs | Eighteenth century clay beds of foun- tains repaved with cement. Railings restored. Similar restoration work on | both the Trianons. New trellis fences | 7 (Continued on Sixth Page.) Ten Years of the League Fierce Debate on Merits of Organization Raged Decade Ago—What Has Body Accomplished? with the common in- d, had been consum- mated. What the League of Nations did was to stimulate this technique by giving it a central habitation and a perma- nent personnel. Geneva is now the defi- nitely accepted center of international co-operation. It is the focus of the movement toward international under- standing. And the cause is now served by a full-time staff of expert men and women of 40 nationalities working ef- fectively and harmoniously for common ends. The importance of this innova- tion can scarcely be overemphasized. | For international life has reached a | stage where its technical problems can be met only by continuous scientific study. Questions like the transportation of | hydro-electric_power across boundary lines, or the financial rehabilitation of Austria and Hungary, or the double taxation of foreigners, cannot be set- tled by the amiable resolutions of diplo- matic representatives. They require the best brains obtainable, and it is in its capacity to mobolize these brains on difficult technical international problems that the League has made a distinct contribution to better ordering of modern life. ‘The League of Nations was born of sheer necessity. If the catastrophe of 1914 had not brought it into existence, sooner or later it would have come by other means. If this League fails an- other league is inevitable. The organi- zation at Geneva sprang from that defi- nite sense of the interdependence of modern nations which was growing be- fore the war and which was sharpened into keen anxiety by that tragic ex- perience. It is the logical outcome of the mechanical development of the nineteenth century, the natural next step In_the political evolution of our time. On the theory that if the na- tions of the world can get together for discussion around a common table many of the conflicts of interest and misunderstandings of purpose can be | reconciled and smoothed away and many of the outstanding problems which confront all nations alike can | be overcome, the League has built up machinery for international confer- | ences such as no previous generation Comparison of Decades. ‘To realize the significance of this transformation one has only to compare the record of the years since 1920 with the aspirations in men’s minds during the decade preceding the war. From 1904 to 1914 the most that any one dared to hope for was a continuation of the periodic conferences at The Hague. It was not that any one ex- pected such conferences to grapple with the most significant problems of cur- rent international life. It was not that any one anticipated substantial prog- ress toward ridding the world of war. But many men, both here and abroad, were earnestly convinced that a confer- ence of ihe powers every eight or ten years would in time yield some good re- sults. And it is true that the first Hague conference did bulld at least the scaf- folding for the pacific settlement of dis- putes, while the second Hague confer- ence reached its high-water mark in a declaration that compulsory arbitration was desirable in principle. A third con- ference might have gone still further, glving the world perhaps an interna- tional prize court. But in the 10 years that have lapsed since 1920 we seem to have leaped a whole century beyond the Hague con- ferences. What we have done is to establish the conference method as an international habit. The principle of periodic meetings has been definitely accepted. 1920 an_international conference has tinued on Sixth Page. ventions, deal terests of through the Commission of Historical | In each of the years since | S BY MARK SULLIVAN. | HE political year 1930 is here. It | is here in the almanac sense— and it is here in the sense that it saturates Washington, espe- | clally Congress. Its presence will show {tself in the tariff debate, in | the vote on the tariff and in the kind of | tariff that is written. It has already | shown itself in the outburst of prohibi- | tion and anti-prohibition statements | during the holidays. The fact that there is to be an election next Novem- | ber will color, in one degree or another, | most of the actions taken by Congress. | Needless to add, we might get a bet- | ter tariff bill—and a shorter tariff de- bate—if 1930 were not a major political year. And needless to add, we might get wiser action about prohibition if the election of Senators and Representatives were not tied up with the dry vs. wet question. 1930 a Major Political Year. | The year 1930 will be a major politi- cal year, not in the sense, of course, that a President is to be elected, but in the next most important sense—in the sense that a complete House of Repre- sentatives and one-third of the Senate is to be elected. There will be friction in the general election as between Dem. ocrats and Republicans in Novembe: but the agitation that composes the po- litical year will begin much earlier. Many, perhaps most, of the selections will be determined—not in the general election in November, which in many States is a foregone conclusion—but in the primaries of the various States. And the primaries, together with the ensu- ing election, will make this a contin ously exciting political year and decis edly an important one. These primaries begin in April in Il- linois, where, on the 8th of that month, Senator Deneen will stand up aj s the first effort—I think it is the first— ever made by a woman to take a sena- torial nomination away from a male Republican, Several Spectacular Contests The contest between Mrs. Ruth Han- be spectacular, and the spectacular quality of that first of the will be duplicated in many of that follow. In every month from April on there will be primaries in a half dozen, more or less, States. The one in Ala- bama on May 13 will be associated with the picturesque Heflin. One in June, the New Jersey one on the 17th of that month, will center around the interest- ing national figure that Dwight Morrow has become. And 5o on until November. What this all means is that practi- cally from the day this article is print- ed, politics will be to the front. The excitement attending a primary does not walt, obviously, until the primary In Illinois, for example, the fight . McCormick and Denesn been under way for weeks is, 32—Is elected every two years. Thir- ty-two are elected, certainiy and auto- matically; in addition, deaths that may have occurred cause the election of a few others. In the the total number elected wi X Thirty-four Senators will be elected and probably the important question is, how many of the 34 will be Republi- can and how many Democratic? “Breaks” Are Eccentric. In these every other year elections by which the Senate is kept filled, the “breaks” are eccentric. Sometimes the breaks favor one party; sometimes the other. The principal one of the breaks is geographical. tribution of the vacancies that arise automatically. If a considerable pro- portion of the vacancies are in the Democratic_solid South, obviously that favors the Democrats. And it happens tsat is the case this year; the geo- graphical break favors the Democrats slightly. To survey the situation as a whole we can begin the calculation by saying that of the 34 Senate seats to be filled next November, 13 are now filled by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. To state this same factor in another way is to make clear one fundamental ad- vantage the Democrats have—the Democrats, in order to retain their pres- ent strength need only re-elect 13; the Republicans to retain their present po- sition must re-elect 21. To hold 13| seats is easier than to hold 21. | To analyze the chances more deeply let us look first at the list of 13 Demo- cratic Senators whose seats become va- cant and who come up for re-election. (Or, in the cases of a few Senatol whose successors must be elected.) The 13 Democrats are: Blease Bratto, Brock Glass Harris . Harrisol Heflin Ransdel Robinson Sheppard Simmons Steck ..Towa Walsh -Montana Ten Democratic Seats Sure. The faintest glance at that list will show what an advantage the Democrats | have. Of the 13 seats now held by | them which come up in the November cleciion, 10 are in Southern States. We | c2n stop right there. Those 10 seats | the Democrats are certain to hold. The one Democratic seat in a North- ern State that the Democrats may lose is that of Steck of Iowa. Probably, in- deed almost certainly, the Democrats will lose this seat, and Towa will return to the practice which has been normal for it since the Civil War, the practice of having Republicans only in the Sen- ate; a practice once epitomized in a saying that “Iowa will go Democratic | when hell goes Methodist.” | Here then we have the Democrats certain to hold 10 of their seats, l\kely' to hold two more and almost certain to lose one. Let us turn now to the Re- publicans. The Republicans whose | seats must be filled inthe November election are: Baird.. gorlh apper Couzens Deneen . Gillett South Carolina | .New Mexico | Tennessee | . Alabama Louisiana . Arkansas . .Texas Carolina .New Jersey . Massachuseits Pennsylvania West Virginia .Oklahoma Kentucky .Minnesota Wyoming Here are 21 seats 'fiw held by Re- 0 | th | enus.” gxblicuu in which elections come in ovember. A single glance at the geographical distribution of these seats and a brief consideration of the other factors involved reveal that the Re- publicans can hardly hope to hold the entire 21. They may do 8o, but if they should they will have had extraordinary good luck and good management, Six G. 0. P. Seats Doubtful. Many of the Republican seats are, of course, as szafe as the 10 Democratic seats that lie in the South. Pennsyl vania, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota, Kansas and Wyoming, to mention only a few, are as certain to elect Republican Senators this Fall as any of the Southern States are to slece Democrats. But at least six of the Republican States are doubtful, whereas, cnly three of the Democratic States are fighting ground. ‘The States now held by Republicans in which the Democrats have one de- gree or another of chance to win may be listed 2s: Massachusetts. Delaware, Oklahoma. Rhode Island. Kentucky, West. Virginia. Probably some Democrats weuld cls- agree with this list, would say it is ton brief. Some Democrats would claim they have a chance in a few more States, such as New Jersey and Colorado. Actually. however, the list as_given above s fully generous to the Demo- crats, For example, Massachusetts is set down as a doubtful State, as & State in which a Democrat may win. The Democrats claim it as doubtful— zlaim it as more than doubtful, as likely to be for them. Seasoned observers, however, will recall that Massachusetts ¢ | in more than 80 years has sent exactly one Democrat to the United States Senate. That Democrat is David Walsh, and Walsh is an anomaly, an extraor- dinary vote-getter in the personal sense, with & considerable following of Re- publicans. With this single exception of David Walsh, Massachusetts has been represented in the Senate by two Re- publicans ever since there was a Re- publican party. Tor Massachusetts to elect a Democrat this Fall would result in her having two Democrats in the Senate—and that would be extraordi- nary and unprecedented. Dwight Morrow Certain. As for the Democrats’ claim that they have a chance to carry New Jer- sey again, observers with long experi- ence and familiar knowledge of the con- ditions will be extremely skeptical. The Republican nominee, it can be taken for granted, will be Dwight Morrow, who in addition to his own recent high public services has the incidental dis- tinction of being the father-in-law of a young man named Charles A. Lind- bergh. (Can any person erudite in po- litical lore recall another case of a man's son-in-law being a political as- set to him?) New Jéfsey can be set down as safely Republican in a sena- torial election in which Dwight Morrow 15 the Republican candidate, Not to go into too much detail, the Democrats are likely to lose one of their 13 and may loss on= more. The Re- publicans, 2mong their 21, have at least six that are doubtful. A rough esti- mate would suggest a net gain of one Senator by the Demiccrats. At the same time, if (here is prosperity in | businzss general contentment, the | Repubiicans may hold ail their 31, This is far from an impossibility. Democrat House Gain Likely, As respects the House, the Repub- licans now have 267, the Democrats 163, with one Farmer-Labor and four vacancies. The Republican are fairly certain to suffer losses in .the House. Their present quite large majority is due in part to the landslide of 1928. In that landslide the icans elected, for example, nine out of Ken- tucky's total of 11 Congressmen. a more normal year such as the coming one, it has been more usual for the Republicans to have not more than two or three of the Congressmen from Kentucky. From Virginia the Republic- ans now have three and from North Carolina two. That also is abnormal and is likely to be corrected in this year’s election. In the net it would not be surprising if the Republicans should lose from 10 to 20 members of the | House this year. (Copyright. 1930.) Many Nations Give Books to Pope Pius There is much ado in cultural cen- | ters which plan to participate in the celebrations listed for Pope Pius' sacer- dotal jubjiee year by donating rare books of great scientific and literary value with which to enrich the Vatican library. Premier Mussolini was pre- sumably the first to present books for his holiness by sending in block a vale uable collection belonging to the Chigis with additional historical data, the whole found in their dwelling, forming his main office cr ministry of foreign affairs. Marchese Ferraioli followed suit and a small cargo of first editions which his noble ancestors had been collecting for centuries arrived at the bronze door. Latest reports in Rome are that the movement has assumed an internae tional aspect, for Germany, France, Belgium, Ireland, Portugal and Scan< dinavia have been dusting out nae tional shelves and paying postage rates to Vatican City. Benedictines the world round are installing suitable quarters to ccllect volumes destined for the library. Their adeptness in thig ine has encouraged the proper au. thorities to announce an unexpect success of the initiative. Original- lnsié;;l Offered for League An Ttalian magazine, Antieuropa, i3 all set to win three prizes of 1,000, 500, and 250 florins ($400, $200 and $100), offered by the Dutch representation at Geneva for the best flag, escutcheon and motto with which to identify the League of Nations before the eyes of grateful admirers. The creations profe fered by the editorial staff are original and were submitted with postscript ta the effect that florins are dear to newss papermen who do not recelve Genevg salaries. The flag must be all white, and bearing the word “Pax,” while in the upper left-hand corner will be eme broidered a wolf, and in the lower rigiite hand corner, a lamb; the presence of e menageries to be thus interpreted: uperior stabat lupus, inferior autem (“The higher the wolf. the lower the lamb.”) A plate depictin an employe cashing his pay checks af the main entrance oi the Leaguc pale ace, with the following w: printed underneath: I long for no other bait* would suffice for an escutchecn. TI motto should be, according to men o letters, “Jerba vo lant” (vords fiy).g 3 d