Evening Star Newspaper, March 14, 1926, Page 53

= EDITORIAL SECTION @he Sunduy . Shad WASHINGTO! SUNDAY MORNING, MARCIH 14, EDITORIAL PAGE NATIONAL PROBLEMS SPECIAL FEATUPES Society News b C, 1926, Proposed Pan-Asiatic Union Conference, Will Seek to Unite Far Eastern Nations BY FREDERIC WILLIAM WILE. UT of the mystic ast comes news of far-reaching possibilities. Under the leadership of Japanese politicians there will be held at Nagasaki on Au gust 1 a “pan-Asfatic” conference, de- signed to bind the nations of the Orlent in the Part 2—20 Pages STEADY CUT IN U. S. TAXES FORESEEN BY MELLON Though Expenses Grow, Continued Economy Will Solve Problem—Local Levies Alarm Officials. . CONFIDENCE OF FRENCH CITIZENS IS WEAKENED Talk of Dictatorship Is General as Factions in Chamber Unite Only to Insure Patronage. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. consider the formation of a& permanent Pan- Asfatic Unlon. Americans in touch with the situation that has developed assert it is too early to say with assurance how formidable the movement is. It has yet to be shown, they explain, whether there I8 a genuine uniting of influential Asfatic leaders, or whether it is a “made-in-Japan” en turfes. Whether the present condition of Asia 15 due to the oppression of the Western na- tions, or to the Aslatic peoples themselves, will be probably the most finportant topic of dis- cussion at the conference. At any rate, a con- ference of this kind requires most delicate hand- ling, If it 18 to be brought to a successful ter- i mination.” BY HAROLD B. ROGERS. NLF uld rother the United become involved in s or Europe for come reason fail to pay its combined deit of ab $11.000,000,000. Necreiary of the Tre ury Mellon sees far down the future a_constant and steady decrease in the Federal tax burden upon the Ameri can people. This ma expected, he believes, in the face « « constantly growing population, greater business and con sequently fncreasing demands upon the central government, Such a progressive lifting of the Federal tax load from the shoulders of the American citizen would be made possible principally by the de- crease and eventual exiinguishment of the public debt. now amounting te about $20.000.000,000. Question of Time. There is some question as to how 80k more tax reduction may be pos- slee, as, according to both President Cmolidge apd Secretary Mellon, the #@w revenue act. which lops off $987,000,000 from the tax bill due this @Rlendar year, will reduce Govern- fent revenues to a point danger- ously near the amount of estimated expenditures. It was a larger tax out Congress made than administra- tlon officlals at the other end of Pennsylvania avenue had estimated could well be borne. Additlonal leg- fslation with its attendant cost will no doubt add materially to expendi- tures for the early future. There are also some uncertain factors, such as the unfunded French debt of £4,000,000,000. the only sizeable war debt vet unfunded. and the | Italian debt settlement approved by the Itallan Parliament and our House | of Representatives, but not vet ap- proved by the United States Senate, Wwhere opposition is raising its head. There have even been some ob- servers, and officlals, too, for that matter, who look with anxious eyes on the economic conditlon of Europe today, wondering whether all debtors. over there will be able to pay their obligations to this Government, al- | though refunded at a substantial re- duction from the original obligations. Two Major Factors. | But two major factors loom up for | fhe distant future, like beacon lights | ©f hope, which, barring unforseen and | Unfortunate calamity, may operate to | Bssure lower Federal taxes for the grandchildren of today’s taxpayers. These factors are, first, the prospec- tive extinction of the great public debt, with its enormous charges of in- terest and principal yearly in the sinking fund, which takes generous | slices now out of each vear's Federal budget, and, second, the policles of ¥ and efficle which. it is | ed, will be carried on down the | Yyears, to hold the Federal machine | to wise and judicious expenditures and effective operation. Detailed forecasting, would be impossible, but there are ex- perts, and Secretary Mellon Is in- clined to agree with them, who figure that the savings to be made through oontinued efficiency and economy, and through eventual elimination of the public debt, will more than offset the anticipated increase in actual running expenses of the Federal Government. Depends on Congress. Congress, of course, it is pointed may at any | v ith 2 few | &rand gestures expenditures A8 may serve to increase Uncle Sam's | load on his people to the point where this future hope may be obliterated. But if economy, efficiency and the sinking fund continue to work at the same high pressure evident since the war much greater burdens may possi- bly be carrled by Uncle -Sam with still lower taxes. Absence of war would be a postu- late for this happy state of the fu- ture, however, for, as the Federal expenditures reveal, a large part of the total has gone for wars, past, present and future. Pension cost for the World War, some officials esti- mate, may continue to mount for some time yet before it starts on the long road downhill. Veterans of the World War are voung comparatively 88 yet, and as they grow older and their widows and orphans begin to lean more and more on the Govern- States | of course, | | while the Federal Government | pushing fts levies downhill. | As contrasted with the £3,105,000,000 ppropriated by Congress for the | present al vear, exclusive of the | Post Office Depurtment and postal | service, experts point to the round | sum _of §4.800,000,000 a year levied by | the local governments on the Amer [ ican people, with this figure jump- ling upward at an estimated rate of | about $300,000,000 a year. Tax Cut Not Hindering. The tax cut provided in the new revenue bill while generous in lift- ing more than 2,000,000 Americans out of the taxpaying classes and re- ducing the amount due from prac- tically all others, did not dig so deeply into Uncle Sam's revenues that he will be unable to go ahead with the orderly business of retiring the public debt. under the plan of the sinking fund. He will be able thus to wear away at this mountain of indebtedne: gradually reducing | It while looking to the happy day when it may disappear altogether. Two principal instruments are being used by Uncle Sam in wearing lown this mountain of a $20,000,000,000 public debt—the sinking fund and repayments from forelgn powers, under thelg debt-funding agreements, although other items during some years are thrown into the scale to bring down the total, such as a sur- plus at the end of a fiscal vear. Interest and sinking fund payments during the fiscal year ended June 30, 1925, for which provision was made in the budget, amounted to $1,188,- 000,000, of which $882,000,000 went for interest and $306,000,000 for the sink- ing fund. What We May Expect. At the present rate of payment, as | provided by the sinking fund, the so-| called domestic debt, representing money spent by America in the war, and amounting at the present time to $8,712,000,000, will have been dis- charged by 1944. _ During the past fiscal year the total gross debt was reduced by $734,619,101, and at the end of the year stood at 16,193,888. Such reduction in the public debt in that one year alone has resulted in a saving of interest of about $30,000,000 annually American people. The policy now used by the admin- istration, it is pointed out by Secre- tary Mellon, has been in force *‘sing the beginning of the Government,™ and has consisted “in balancing the budget or keeping expenditures within receipts, and prompt extinguishment of the public debt.’ been easy to dis- charge the debts which this Govern- to the said Secretary Mellon,s “but deter- mined efforts have been made, even under circumstances when debt pay- ment was a far greater burden than at present; and those efforts have been successful.” Budgets Are Balanced. ““The Government has followed the sound policy of balancing its budget from year to year,” he continued, ‘“‘or- | dinary receipts against ordinary ex- penditures, and including as ordinary expenditures for budget purposes the sinking fund and other debt retire- ments properly chargeable against or- dinary receipts. This means that pro- vision must be made for expenditures on account of interest and retirement of the war debt before the budget can | balance, and a balanced budget each ! year indicates a reasonable amount of debt retirement out of current reve. | nues.” ‘The prospect of lower Federal taxes in the far future depends also heavily upon the ability of foreign powers to repay the United States under the program of amortization which has been agreed to already by 11 of them. ‘While the total debts acknowledged as of today by all debtors to the United States amount to about $11,000,000,000 they will pay much more than that when current inter- est is added. For instance, the 11 powers, headed by Great Britain, who have signed debt agreements, will, according to latest tabulations at the Treasury, pay into Uncle Sam’s till by the end of their 62-year period, a total of $15,200,000,000, al- though their principal indebtedness as of today stands at $7,434,504,000. Great Britain would pay more than $11,000,000,000 and TItaly, if the Sen- ate approves the agreement, would pay more than $2,400,000,000. France, ment, it has been predicted by ob- servers who have studied the past, a grateful Government will in all prob- abllity be called on to increase its expenses. This may occur in addi- tlon to the general provisions made in form of insurance and the soldiers’ bonus. It has been the history of pensions in the past. Unless Con- grees reverses itseif the cost of pen- slons will increase for some time to come. The proportion of Government ex- penditures which are due to war, di- rectly and Indirectly, have been vari- ously estimated as to their relative welght on the shoulders of the tax- paver. What War Has Cost. “While it is not possible to segre- gate entirely all expenditures which might fall in this category,” said Sec- retary Mellon, “if we add to the dis- bursements for public debt retire. ents the interest on the debt, War, avy, Veterans' Bureau and pen- slons, other extradordinary expendi- tures, such as adjusted compensation and the increased outlays by the Treasury, the expenditures which are directly or indirectly attributable to war and the national defense com- pose over 80 per cent of total Fed- eral expenditures. *“The amounts spent by this Gov- ernment in ald of agriculture and business, for science, education, bet- ter roads and other constructive efforts, are insignificant when com- pared with outlays due to war and wmational defense.” Thus the consequences of war, or e possibilities of a future war, oom up larger than any @ther single factor, or even combination of other factors, in consideration of the problem of future Federal tax- ation. Local Taxation Worries. It is the mounting cost of local texation by States, counties, cities, municipalities and not the cost of the Federal levy, which today is causing most anxlety in the minds of those experts and statesmen here in Washington who have an eye to the far future. For instance, Uncle Sam has cut { money for productive enterprise, Sec- with her debt of more than $4,000,- 000,000, has mot as yet funded, and hence, is not included in this total. Secretary Mellon Gratifled. Secretary Mellon, standing with his hand on Uncle Sam's glant money bag, the greatest in the world, thus today feels gratifiled by progress which has been made in the great business of lifting the burdens of taxation from the American people. The new tax bill, embodying prin- ' ciples of tax reform in the direction | of not only relieving the levies on the smaller taxpayer but of lower- ing the high surtaxes and Inherit- ance taxes, thus releasing more Mellon feels confident will increase the already sound pros- perity of the country and. conse- quently bring additional dollars ring- ing_into Uncle Sam’s till. For the next few years the re- celpts over expenditures will leave a fair surplus, according to present prediction, with prospect, however, in the far future, of a progressive reduction downward still further in the Federal tax burden of the Amer- ican people. retary o ° Norway: Prohibition Not Real Prohibition | Prohibition in Norway is not real prohibition. Only the sale of bever- ages containing more than 40 per cent. of alcohol is prohibited. All sorts of wine and ale are to be had and the Norweglan people drink just as much now as they drank before the regula- tion law was introduced. Anti-prohibitionists maintain that the consumption of alcohol is even more than before. Official statistics Jjust published show that the importa- tion of wines in 1925 Increased 50 per cent over 1924 and nearly 150 per cent as compared with 1923. Thus far In 1926 several ships have un- |amined and links the nations of the Western Of even more pminous significan spiration for this proposed Pan immigration laws, and, provisions for e 15 there will be a preliminary League of Nations lines - an agenda. The agenda then will basis for discussion at the confe which is scheduled to last four d Delegates totaling 150 will come China, Siam, Afghanistan, Persia dia and the Philippines. by Junichiro Imazatc anese House of Representatives, Mr. conference in Shanghal and to a stead. ' ¥ ¥k the outbreak of resentment in American exclusion legislation. B coming conference at Nagasaki is systematically, spreading, with the sufficiently propagandized to ind same sort of fashion gs the Pan-American Unlon Asjatic Union. 1t is the direct outgrowth of the new Amerfcan in particular, luston of Orientals. On July for the formulation of Final arrangements were completed in China at the end of January a member of the Jap- of the Pan-Asfatic Society for Japan. In China mazato conferred with representatives of the various people interested in the pan-Asia- tie movement. The principal decision they took was to abandon the idea of holding the Summer Nagasaki, the well known Japanese seaport, in- The Pan-Asiatic Soclety sprang into bging spasmodically in the Summer of 1924, following eral conference of the soclety ever.heid. Bitter denunciations accompanied the birth of the or- ganization at Tokio. A branch was almost im- medlately afterward organized at Shanghal. Since then the movement has been quletly, but the principal eight Oriental peoples have been Hemisphere. can leaders, who mere ce 18 the In to bring about a seriou situation. Meantime of the n serve as the rence proper, ays. from Japan, . Turkey, In. show that pan-Asiatic . cific. But between the :akable meaning. He sa and_director ssemble it at influence will grow fi the channel of public opinion. “The leaders of the conference cannot be too handling the affair, pants will come from nations whose views of Asiatic affairs are widely divergent under ex- I found during my through China and elsewhere that the peoples under the control of Western nations, or who belleve they are suffering from such control, seek natlonal emancipation as the principal careful in Japan over ut the forth- the first gen- isting conditions. theme for our discussi of Asia, in my opinion, to the faults of Asiatic circumstances, which e result that uce them to the hopes and plans of the men who will domi- nate proceedings at the Nagasaki conference. * * a_statement issued on from China, Mr. Imazato. a leader in the Japanese Parliament, sought to “The conference proposes to discuss the cul- tural, economic and political questions of Asla under much freer circumstances than those of the League of Natlons discussions. The unity and peace of Asia as an ultimate contribution to the peace and harmony of the world are the objectives of the soclety and its conferences. Next Summer’s conference will be purelyan unof- ficlal organization. It will have no actual pow- er to change directly the policles of the coun- tries represented, but it is hoped that no little “Personally I think a mere demand for eman- cipation of Asia will do no good. The suffering terprise, backed by certain fanatical anti-Amer{ 1y hope, sooner or later, s “Asia for the Asiaties™ that phrase epitomizes i) - men and' n promised to lowing the fices are to recent return etyukai” party purposes are purely pa- lines of it is an unmis- id: The Japa and princip pan-Asiatic ““There is Asfatic Socl to the Wes rom {ts work, through 1924 Tt of that since partici- went into e trip hatred and ons. Statements to a great extent is due ing to avold peoples and unfortunate have existed for cen * k k x ‘The Chinese and Jupanese delcg-tions, con slsting of about 50 members eich dominate proceedings at u Chinese delegates will be composed chiefly of university and_college professors, sparently Nagusaki. The newspaper nembers of Parllament. Turkey has send representative statesmen, Fol- conference, Pan-Asfatic Union of- be established in Toklo and in Shang- hai or Peking. n_ Advertiser, the American-owned al English language newspaper in the Far East, commenting editorially on the movement, says: unfortunately, but so far unneces- sarily, an ominous ring in the title of the Pan- ety. There i3 considerable justifica- tion for apprehensions, but not, as yet, for the accompanying fears. Every movement launched to bring about a union of the Asiatic nations and peoples has been predicated on opposition t. The present Pan-Asiatic Soclety was founded as a direct result of the passage of the United States immigration laws in May, ne actually into being during July r, the month in which exclusion ffect. “At the time of the soclety’s organization it was emphatically pointed out that a Pan- Asla- tie Union resembling the Pan-American Union would be of inestimable worth, Asia, but to the world at large, but that one motivated by opposition to the West and by not only to fear was capable of infinite evil. and publications of the society in Japan since that time show clearly that its leaders are conscious of this fact and are seek- the danger. Time alone will reveal whether the proposed Pan-Asiatic Union is to be a blessing or a menace.” HEALTH OF NAT Miss Abbott of Children’s Every year nearly two and a half milllon women in the United States are planning and preparing for new bables, according to Miss Grace Ab- bott, chief of the Children's Bureau, United States Department of Labor, in a statement before the House ap- propriations committee. “The Federal maternity and in- fancy act,” she declares, “‘enables the United States Government to co-0p- erate with the States in bringing these mothers valuable information.” Under the provisions of this act the sum of $5,000 is available to each State accepting it, and the balance 1s on the basis of the amount match- ed by the State. Statistics submit- ted by Miss Abbott indicate that the imounts accepted by the States in- | crease each year, ranging from $716.- 000 in 1923 to §958,000 in 1925. Act Serving Its Purpose. “It is belleved,” Miss Abbott says, “that the act Is serving the general purpose for which it was . State plans have originated in the States and have been administered by the States so that State initiative has been stimulated and State ma- chinery strengthened; the States have in turn encouraged and developed local responsibility for the health of children; there has been very great increase in interest in the promotion’ of welfare and .nd infancy only getting un va statistical evidence in lowered death rates of the value of the intensive pleces of work {s available. The 1924 infant mortality rates (the latest avallable) show an encouraging re- duction for both urban and rural areas in practically all the States in the registration area.” On the conduct and-progress of the work under the maternity act, Miss Abbott says, in part, as follows: “Bach State plans Iits own pro- gram and decides upon the State agency, usually the State Bureau of Child Hygiene, which shall direct the program. The work for mothers and bables is carried on as a part of the public health work of the State. The fact that the State has accepted the and infancy act only means it is possible to reach more mothers and bables because more is avallable, and to work more eXec ly because of the co-opera- fon of the other States and the ational Government. Praises Child Health Centers. “It has been found that the child health center and the prenatal cen- ter are among the best teaching agencles. The reports of the States show that during 1925 18,154 child health conferences were held by the State agencles administering the funds, at which+ 290,846 infants and children of preschool age were ex- 607 permanent child health centers were established. The automobile or truck outfitted as a cen- ter has been found to ba of especial advantage in initiating a maternity and infancy program in areas where the nature of the work is little un- derstood. Since it attracts_attention all along the route, it has great edu- cational value. In some States a maternity and infancy nurse has been sent to counties for periods of two or three mdnths to assist the general public health nurse in the maternity and infancy program. “Home visits are a part of the health center routine, the usual cus- tom being for the nurse to make the first visit promptly after birth regis- tration, “In all States co-operating under the maternity and infancy act special efforts have been made to get the program for prenatal care well un- der way. The States report 6,088 pre- natal conferences during 1923-24, with 38,662 women in attendance. Pre- natal letters have been used in many States. More letters were distributed on request of physicians than in any other way. Surveys of the midwife eituation have been undertaken in a number of States and have been com- pleted in several. Educational work among midwives has been under- taken by physiclans, and much is also accomplished by State and county nurses. In the® South the problem of the untrained negro midwife is serious. Speclal attention has been glven to training the midwives in a number of these States. loaded their cargoes from the wine- his public debt from the peak of about $26,000,000000 to a figure around $20,000,000,000 today, with a constant retrenchment in expendi- tures; the local governments, how- ever, have been on an .amazing gpree. running thelr taxes uphill, producing countries. One ship un- loaded 10;000,000 quarts of port wine. Norway’s population, including wom- en and small children, is about 2,750, 000. Norway is the greatest consumer of port wine in Europe in proportior _to the number of Inhabitants, hl Co-operation Necessary. “Much of the success of a mater- nity and infancy program depends upon the interest and co-operation of the medical profession. Assistance has been given by State and local medlcal socleties and by (ndlvid.uu ene of maternity | 5 | us TON’S BABIES Bureau Tells of Co-opera- tion in Behalf of Two and a Half Million Expgct- ant Mothers—Urges Expansion of Campaign. physiclans in conducting infant and maternity conferences and centers, in giving lectures to mothers' classes, in providing names of expectant mothers to receive prenatal letters of other .literature from the maternity and infancy division of the State Board of Health or other local ad- ministering agency, in helping with the, midwife program and in acting as ‘general consultants on natfonl, State and local plans of work, as it is the policy to lay the plans before local physicians before work is under- | taken in any district. “Representatives of the staff of the | maternity and infant hyglene divi- sfon of the Children’s Bureau have visited the States for the purpose of conferences with directors and ob- servation of field work and for conferences with physicians, Public Health nvurses and groups of lay people. A conference of the State directors of maternity and infant hygiene has been held to which the directors in all the States were in- vited. Representatives attended from 36 States co-operating under the maternity and infancy act and 1 not co-operating attended. Adoption of Standards. “One of the suggestions made by the conference was that the Chil- dren's Bureau should undertake to | formulate standards of child care and prenatal care, which could be «d by the State agencies In their rk. In response to this suggestion the bureau assembled a group of prominent obstetriclans to formu- late the prenatal standards. A set of standards to be sed by physicians conducting Infant and preschool conferences also has been drawn up by the bureau's ad- visory committee appointed by the American Pediatric Society, pediatric section of the American Medical Association, and the Amer- ican Child Health Assocfation. “A report on maternal mortality, which will be published soon by the bureau, shows that a very high per- centage of the losses are due to pre- ventable causes. It {s, therefore, sspecially important that the program for prevention of the unnecessary deaths in childbirth be pushed. Demonstrations of successful meth- ods of conducting prenatal clinics have been made in many places under the maternity and infancy act. A beginning has been made in get- ting a State program of work under- stood and actually under way in some communities. On the basis of this experience an expansion of the work can economically be under- taken.” |Russians Compete For Room in School Apportioning educational facilities among children strictly on a basis of trade union membership of their par- ents has not proved entirely satisfac- |tory in Russia, according to M. Kho- | dorowski, assistant commissioner of | education. Some places in the high schools of the Russian Socialist Federated So- viet Republic (Russia proper) will be reserved for the children of certain classes of soclety, but the largest num- ! ber will be filled by competitive exam- inations. The 22,500 high school stu- dents in the republic of 92,000,000 population will be divided as follows: “Rabfacs,” 8,000; backward nationall- tles, 1,750; proletarian intelligentsia, 2,600; autonomous republics, 560; sol- 1 diers and sallors, 250; competitive ex- aminations, 9,440; total, 22,500. ‘Rab- facs” are adult students catching up | with their education and taking uni- versity courses in high schools. The high school accommodations in the re- public are: Moscow, 5,000 (population, 1,850,000); Leningrad, 5,895 (popula- tion, 1,410,000), and the provinces, 10,805. Women in Forefront. ‘Women probably have more to say about municipal affairs in Bologovsky, a city near Novgorod, than in any other city in the world. In the recent election of 89 mem- bers of the Soviet city 49 women won seats. This year 43.6 per cent of the population voted, compared with 7.7 per eent last yvear. By occupa- tions the Soviet consists of 22 work- men, 24 clerical employes, 6 intelli- gentsla and 37 housewives and pro- fessional persons. Of these, 19 are Communists and ¢ members of the “Komsomol,” or young Communists. the | railroa DISARMAMENT MUST BE TACKLED AIDED BY STATE AND U. S. ACTION| WISELY AND SLOWLY, BLISS SAYS | X Is Difficult Problem and Cannot Be Rushed, He Warns, Citing Many Obstacles That Must Be Overcome—Cautions Fanatics. Gen. Tasker . Bliss, former chief 1of staff and American member of the Supreme War Council in sounds a warning against too hu efforts at wholesale or arbitrary dis. armament, in an article in the latest issue of Foreign Affalrs. He accepts the growing conviction that states must make some concession of the right to make war, saying it is no more revolutionary than the move- ment which led to the introduction of law as a substftute for violence be- tween individuals. Provided the new international spirit is not imperiled by over-enthusiasts, he belleves the world s on the eve of taking an im- portant step forward. en. Bliss at the start defines th most important of all human prob- lems, before pointing out some of the difficulties which, as a practical soldier of long experience, he sees in the way of its immediate solution. * “What is disarmament?’’ asks Gen. Bliss. “To ask the question reveals the gravity and the compiexity of the problem. To a fanatical extremist it might mean at first sight the abolition of every agency that natlons employ to attain their end in war. But great numbers of these things are the out- growth of peaceful evolution; their manufacture and use are necessary, once man has had them, for the or derly processes of life, whether war exists or not. In short, the nation which {s best organized for peace. which is the most abundantly supplied with the agencies which have come with civilization and on which that civilization largely depends, and with the facilities for the production ol them and with men skilled in their use, 13 the one best organiged for war. Cites Many Agencles. “Modern war would be quite impos- aible without commercial steamships, ds, motor cars, factories of all kinds with their skilled workmen, telegraphs, telephones, radios, aero- planes, laboratories for every kind of experiment and research, on all of which also depends pretty much every- thing that is useful or beautiful in human life. “Let us ask in another form the question which I have already put. What is the thing belleved to be capable of disarmament? In other words, what is armament? purposes of disarmament, I think that it is not only fair but exact to state that the term ‘armaments’ includes only those agencles for use on land and under it, on water and under it and in the air, which are provided and maintained by a nation solely for the purpose of international war. In other words, we must exclude agencies which are necessary, or even only desirable, in peace. They can- not be abolished. At the most, at- tempts may be made to regulate their use, with the knowledge that the regulation is sure to go by the board under the stress of war.” Gen. Bliss proceeds to show that when a reduction of armaments ls carried to the extremest limit in any nation, that nation will still have, in less quantity, the same kind of armament that it has now, excepting only such material as is provided sole- Iy for the purpose of international “The actual abolition of ma- terial,” he notes, “would largely be limited to the forms of ordnance u in the bombardment of strongly for- tified positions and in very long-range firing, as in the case of German guns which bombarded Paris from a great distance in the latter part of the recent war.” Views Are Important. As the United States has agreed to attend the forthcoming disarmament conference, and as Gen. Bliss is fre- quently mentioned as one of the prin- cipal delegates, his views on the probable agenda of the conference are of great importance. “The slze of armed personnel,” he writes, “Is, of course, one of the things subject to reduction and limitation. A conference will find that, provided it is accompanied by a proportionate reduction of reserves of war material and facilities for its manufacture, it is about the only way to limit the ultimate war strength of a nation. “The military personnel consists of the men with the colors and those who have passed through their term of training. and have entered the ranks of civil life. There is a definite relation between the numbers of the latter class and the former. A reduc- tion in the former, in nations which practise conscription, would slowly re- duce the latter class. Otherwise than in this way, the numbers of trained men now in civil life in any country can be reduced only‘by the processes of age and diseass. But their im- mediate effectiveness for war may For the‘ be do, the problem af di terfal to put into their hands, and this would be a great gain for peace. “If the conference attempts to deter- | mine a measurement of relative arma- pments, I think it will be found prac- ticable only by a comparison of the number of trained men with the col- ors and in civil life and the amount of military equipment of every kind. It would lead to no useful result to dis- cuss whether the men of one nation ere better or poorer soldiers than those of another. No nation will reduce its armed forces or its equipment merely because it is believed that they are better than those of some other na- tion—a point which will be hotly con- be an ugreement. Expenditures Poor “Nor, to take another illustration. can military expenditures be accepted as a safe guide in the comparison of armaments. These depend in each na- tion upon the compensation which it is willlng to give its soldiers, upon wuges of civil labor, etc. le. ference make a distinction between offensive and purely defensive parts of national armament. If it should attempt to do this, it would probably find that a fortification without its mament is ahout the only purely defensive element. The armament of the fortification could be properly classed as defensive If it is immovable { from its position. But even so it could I not be so classed if the fortification is located in a manner to give its guns range over allen territory. “It will be difficult for a conference to draw up a mathematical scale for reduction except on the basis of the exiating strength in trained personnel and its available stock of military equipment. If it attempts to take into account such elements as national re- sources, geographic situation, vulnera- bility of frontiers, etc., each nation will say that its existing military es- tablishment results from taking Into account all of these and many other factors. That being the case, if a re- duction is to be effected on a certain scale, it must be one based on present Otherwise, natfons A, B > y, ‘Tt is possible that we can still further develop our organized strength; you must wait until we have completed this before a falr scale of proportionate reduction can be made.’ Alreraft Cut Practicable. “A reduction in aircraft specially de- signed and made for military purposes could be effected as easily as could a reduction in any other class of ma- terial, provided a scale can be agreed upon for any of them. It is probable, however, that all civil aircraft could be used for some direct or indirect military purpose in time of war. Prob- ably not even those that could be con- verted would equal aircraft specially designed for military use. But there will soon be civil aircraft of great carying capacity, both for passengers and freight, that will be very valuable in ‘war for transportation purposes. They will be, as it were, motor cars and railway trains in the air. If an attempt is made to determins the equivalent value in a military sense of different classes of clvil aircraft a con- ference would probably have to rate them as of the same military value as machines specially designed for war because of the difficulty of agreeing on any other equivalencs.” Gen. Bliss concludes that after citing these different aspects of the disarma- ‘ment problem it is not necessary for him again to emphasize the fact that it is “the very slipperiest of all slip- pery problems to take firm hold of.” Problem Ts Difficult. “Many people are impatient of the delay,” he writes. ‘They think that the solution is as easy as to ask and answer the question, ‘What is the sum of 10 units?’ But we are dealing with national mentalities, whose energy will for a time be quite exhausted when they have added two units. It will be an indefinite time before they get 10. But they will get, if they only begin, nearer and nearer to it. real problem is to begin to add.” “My own opinion,” adds Gen. Bliss, “is that for the present the most prac- ticable thing to work for is regional limitation and reduction growing out general disarmament. And as a mat- ter of fact, if a very few great nations could begin some reduction in that part of their military establishments which is admittedly maintained with an eye to their near neighbors, with- out concerning themselves with what the many emall nations are willing to it would | tested and on which there would never | “It may be suggested that a con-| The | 1, ARIS—When I left America some weeks ago two very clear conceptions of European con- ditions were general in Wash- ington—first that Great Britain was <lipping down the toboggan in- dustrially, economically, even political- ly; second, that France was about to find u new dictator, or, more exactly, to discover a French Mussolini, From London I tried to muke clear | my impression that despite all out- | ward evidences of terrific, if not well- | nigh hopeless, difficulties, the British | were not only getting hold of their | situation, but heginning to display a certain confidence. As to France, ono must say at once that there is no evidence in any direc tion either of confidence or compé- tence. Here is a country, naturally rich, in which at the moment not only is there nothing to compare with the 2,000,000 unemployed in Germany and the 1,250,000 idle in Britain, but by contrast, with every one working, the fobs exceed the hands and there i still a cry for more workmen, which can only be met by immigrati Here is a country which, unlike Germany, Britain or Italy, is export- ing more than she imports, piling up a relatively huge favorable balance through tourist trade. The coal mines | which were destroved during the war are producing more coal than then, the factories which were wiped out have been replaced with modern estab- lishments which have in many cases doubled production. Living Costs Low. by contrast with Germa here {s a country in { The to the tourist even—ridiculously lo In all things which go to mike ward proof of prosperity one might almost say with exactitude tnat France is enjoying a boom rather than a slump, that so far as post-war Europe goes it is fncomparably better off than either its great enemy or its i greatest European ally. | Yet over against that one must set the dominant fact that politically, and as a consequence financially, France is not only worse off than Britain, but also than Germany, Italy, Belgium or |even some of the more fragile and recent creaticns. The whole govern- mental brunch national life has not so much broken down as become paralyzed. iranc continues to fall, capital continues to run away from the country, confidence has dis- appeared. There is an incoherence, a general sense of doubt, anxie mism, which goes beyond all bility of exaggeration. Daily, hourly, there is n national sense that things are drifting neaver { and nearer to some supreme ¢ the character of which no one can ! describe or forecast, but the grav of which all concede. But i 1 face of all this there {s no man to ido what Clemenceau did in 1917: no | political party which can take control as did the Tories in Britain a year ago. In whatever direction you turn there is only the double sense of help- lessness and hopelessness. Taxation Is High. ‘What is the cause? In America one says that the French people re- | fuse to pay taxes. But this s rather cruelly inexact, because most catego- « could even make & program, the ex- tent of the casualty list is patent. At the moment Andre Tardlsu, ‘lemenceau’s greatest lieutenant, has just been triumphantly elected at Bel fort and returns to the Chamber after two years of exile. His election is a vie tory for those who, with Conservative sympathies. hope for reasonable solu tions. It has been accepted as a far reaching sign and symbol of the change in the temper of the electorate. Yet can Tardleu do the impossible”™ He has never been a success in the Chamber, which is quite as much to his credit as not. Ile has assailed Poincare and Millerand quite as much as Painleve, Herriot and Blum, the conspicuous figures on either side of the political divide. Yet for the mo ment, at least, Tardleu is the “white hope" of the conservatives of thecoun- try outside of the political world. But one rmust recognize that the pos sibilities of a dictator are not solely 10 be canvassed from the Conservative stde. Tt is at least possible that it might be the extreme Radicals, the Socoalists and the extreme wing of he Socialists which would supply the dietator: that. instead of Tardieu, one might have Blum; that, in reality, the inspiration of the dictatorship might as easily come from Moscow as from Rome; that one must think of Lenin a3 well as Mussolint. Justice Is Sole Plea. By and large I belleve it would be a fair statement to say that the country, the people, have escaped from the old folly of belleving that Germany would all through reparations or that ance could escape all foreign obli What is now government ¥ gations by canceilations. demanded 1s merely a which would impose nec taxation with justice and equity. But here is a Parliament made up of groups of men each trying to ta one part of the country and prot another; to tax the constituents of a colleague and save his own constitu ents. The manufacturers’ representa tives would strike the peasant, the peasants’ Deputles would strike the manufacturers, the bankers are made ‘he fair target of both, but the genera! sense of natlonal unity has disappear ad; there are no Deputies thinking of France as contrasted with their owr dstriets. Then, as T have tried to there is no such thir party governmen yarty, only inc en 1 < no possibility of presidential inter forence, for the President fs cons tionally a cipher. and his predecessc | Millerand, was flung out of the Presi dent’s seat incontinently because he undertook to mora! Influenca upon p Add 1o this the fact th en the Senate group in the Chamber that the Senate be dissolved. and something the extent of the chaos is made mani fest. Bloodshed Possible. Laying aside the more or less violen: solution of a dictatorship, what an swer Is there to the present problem” No one can see, no one can even dream. There is the real tragedy. And I should add at once that when one talks lightly in America of & French Mussolint {t {s worth while to recal {ries of French citizens are aiready heavily taxed, measured by American standards. and there have heen many s in recent days of readi- still greater burdens at such bur- relief. But dens borne wo | they have lost in the gov- ernment to which they would pay their taxes: they feel that new sac fices only go for nothing and produs no results. In the Chamber of Deputies, which is the real government, the member- ship is broken into groups which: can- not combine, yet will not disintegrate to permit new combinations. On the one hand is the minority, made up of the several conservative groups which were beaten at the election a year ago last May, when Polncare was defeated. They have at the mo- ment neither the strength nor the leadership to save the situation. On the other hand, there is a ma- Jjority made up of three totally in- coherent groups—Moderated: mild | Radicals and Socialists—held together ! by the fact that combined they make a ‘majority which enables them to control the patronage and hold the jobs, united by the cohesive power of public plunder. But this ma- Jority has no other unity than that of patronage: it does not dissolve: but it can do nothing, because be- tween the Moderates and the Social- ists there can be no co-operation in the making of legislation. Position Is Unstable. At the moment in which I write Briand is prime minister, but tomor- row he may go because he has no majority. Moreover, while he is a great politiclan, he is not in any | senne a great leader. His one conception of solution is to permit the majority to continue until it wears out the patience of the coun- try and even the possibilities of its own combination. ~Patience is his motto and his method, but while he waits the franc sinks, the country grows more and more dissatisfied, the orisis approaches. Is it then possible after all that Mussolini, a French Mussolini, may emerge? Let me say at once that in all my talks with Frenchmen of all shades of opinifon none has excluded this possibility. Poincare is quoted s the author of the phrase that France was flat on her back and any one might have her by lifting her to her feet. Never in his- tory was there a situation more per- fectly made for & dictator, if only there were a dictator discoverable anywhere. But where can France get a dic- tator? Not from the army: it has not a single available candidate, and the nation weary of everything which suggests militarism. It is, for example, so to- tally tired of the Moroccan campaign that even a great success won there vy & new and brilllant general would hardly make a stir on the waters. Man Power Exhausted. But if there is no soldier available and if, in addition, the popular mind the right stature? the fact that one of the worst phases of recent history has been that it has exhausted, not developed, men. There is not a new name in France. When you consider that France has had six finance ministers in a year, and the finance post is the post of most fm- portance; when you recognize that all Again. one faces | sarmamen limited by a reduction In reserve ma- be a long itepntho way to solution.” six have been flung out before they ! itself is comspicuously | that a dictator at the moment France would mean. perhaps. a rific blood-letting. It would not be by castor oil and unofficial drubbing- that any man or Fascisti_con binatfon would ride to power in It is true, perhaps, that the tit {might come when more weariness | would convince the vast majority of | Frenchmen that the dictator was necessary, but there wouid be a mi * which would fight, there might easily be barricades, all the attendant clrcumstances of other coups d'etat in France. After all, France is n Italy, and all easy and theroug |going analogles are excessively dan- gerous. Of course, one must say at once that thers {8 no superficial evidence of ur rest or disorder. Paris is outwardl as calm, peaceful, busy, orderly as ever in her history. One might come stay and go, and. aside from some lit | tle” discomfort due to varving ex jchange. have no more scnse of anm political or financial trouble t New York or London. In realit very calm is one of the most bewilde ing and perhaps disturbing phases Paralysis Is Cause. There. after all, is the best picture | jcan give of the present situation in | France, the domestic situation. It i the impression of paralysis in the presence of a supreme crisis, paraly {sis on the part of those who should |act, pathetic resignation on the part jof those who cannot act, but must psuffer fatally in case of any catastro jphe. There is not a man in France, from Briand to the least peasant. who can tell you what will happen tomor- | row or who will not tell you how mans ‘:nr:!m‘::« might happen. some of them phocking "bevond "American compre I shall try in another article to de scribe the forelgn situation as viewed from Paris, but it is essential to add now that the American observers must perceive something of the present French domestic conditions to appre ciate the real difficulties In the wur of debt settlement or disarmament conference. There has not been a day since he took office when Briand was not in danger of being turned out, and the danger has not diminished. But how under such conditions can Ber enger or any other ambassador nego- tiate a debt settlement which will have to be submitted some day to the Chamber, but perhaps to a Cham ber with & new and hostile maste Confidence Weakened. One obvious possibility 1 a panic which will sweep away ull values Such a panic would come, not because the financial situation of France is desperate or even terribly bad, but because public confidence is gone and popular feeling is excessively sensi- tive to even the slightest currents of air. How, then, can any one expect people under such conditions to con- sider the question of foreign debts or even the far more abstruse question of limitation of armaments? There never was in recent history so colossal a question mark as at the present hour, nor wa of increasing reglonal security. Every | would generally resist a. military dic. | people ever more acutely alarmed over such step will be in the direction of | tator, where is there a politician of | the immediate present. There vastly more calm and courageous for titude when 1 was here just 10 years ago and the German guns were thun- dering about Verdun. For millions of Frenchmen there is the same sense that the nation is in danger, but there i3 nothing to correspond with the con- fidence then in the poilus who had said, “They shall not passe.” (Copyright. 1226.1