Evening Star Newspaper, October 1, 1936, Page 9

"r Polls Spur Interest in Campaign May Prove Far Amiss, However, Due to Limitations. BY DAVID LAWRENCE. N ROUTE THROUGH MIS- SOURI, October 1.—Every- where there is an intense inter- est in the various polls being taken. They have served to stimulate what otherwise has been a colorless campaign. I have been in 25 States and almost every day somebody asks me what value to place upon the polls of the Lit- erary Digest, or Dr. Gallup, or the Baltimore Sun canvass, as the case may be. Likewise, I hear the reaction of political 1e a ders who ought to know their own States and, in all frankness, it must § be stated that I § have heard criti- cism of the polls from both Democrats and Republicans even on occasions when the polls gave their particular side an advantage. There is, of course, nothing myste- rious about polls. I have confidence in the integrity and fairness of conduct of every one of the major polls being taken, and yet I would not be surprised to fina them far afield of the natural result when we read the final returns on November 4. I do not necessarily expect them to be wrong, but I think I can prove why they could be wrong. In the first place the basic principle David Lawrence. 4n sampling, which has cost direct-by- | mail companies literally hundreds of | millions of dollars to discover and be guided by, is that the smaller the test. numerically speaking, the greater the chance of error and that the wider the | list used the less chance there is of gauging the quality thereof. Possibility of Error. 1 do not think that 100,000 or 150,- 000 personal interviews or ballots con- stitute a sufficiently large group to test out 45,000,000 voters, and that's about the number who may vote in this elec- tion. For this reason I would say that Dr. Gallup's poll may be right. but it may prove very wide of the mark sim- Ply on the basis of the small number canvassed. S This is also, in my opinion, a eriti- cism of the Literary Digest poll at this | stage of the game. If the Digest should | receive, out of its 10,000,000 ballots | mailed, replies or votes from 2,250,000 people, that would be a very satisfac- tory percentage and a clear-cut sam- ple. accept the Digest poll as indicative of the popular vote. As for the electoral vote, all polls start with a handicap factor over which they have no control, namely that a President of the United States has been elected with less than a majority of the popular vote. In some instances the margir of the win- ning candidate has been very slight on the pouplar vote side and yet a landslide on the electoral vote. Thus, in 1908, Mr. Taft had only about 51 per cent of the total vote cast, but he had 321 electoral votes to Mr. Bryan's 162, and, to this day, most people have forgotten that less than 600,000 votes out of 14,887,133 was Mr. Taft's actual majority. This brings up a point on which the statistical side of a poll may fall down, even though conducted with almost scientific accuracy so far as an actual sampling by numbers is con- cerned. I know that Dr. Gallup's poll is given a good deal of weight throughout the country because he has attempted to overcome one of the difficulties of polling by mail, namely, that certain classes of persons are supposed not to answer circular mail. And certain classes of persons, on the other hand, it should be noted, do not let interviewers in the house who come to ring doorbells these days. Many People Reticent. 1 have personally interviewed on my travels various kinds of people with- out disclosing my identity as a news- paperman and I find a reluctance to tell political affiliations or intentions with respect to the coming election. I have been very careful not to lead the witness, so to speak, and yet I find many people reticent. It has always been more or less difficult to get at the independent vote, though the life-long Republican or life-long Democrat may be more outspoken. But even assuming that all the in- terviewers employed are sufficiently #killed to elicit frank answers, I would say that any survey based on 100,000 or 150,000 runs the risk of ignoring geographical rather than class quality. Indeed, it is not enough to know what persons in different classes of income think about candidates, but what people think in certain sections of certain pivotal States. That's one reason why political leaders who have confided in me have pointed to inaccuracies, as they see it, in both the Digest and the Gallup polls. And, personally, I give much weight to the judgment of ex- perienced political leaders. I say this because I have found their collective Judgment off the record to be fairly accurate over a period of years. One reason for this, of course, is that they know the political factors in their own States, something that the polls cannot possibly encompass and which they do not profess to include. Stafe after State might show a majority on a mailed ballot or on a substantial number of per- sonal interviews and yet cast its elec- toral vote in the opposite direction Just because the preponderant vote in certain counties underwent a shift. What the polls are valuable for is in showing the changes and shifts of persons who voted one way last time and are planning to change this time. That's a significant trend and, if sampled numerically on a large enough scale, is a very strong indi- cator of the possible result in the Nation as a whole. Sun Poll Peculidr. But what about the Baltimore Sun poll? Here is an instance of a very large and intensive mailing which went to every registered voter in Maryland, thus taking into account sectional variations within a State. I believe the Baltimore Sun adopted every safeguard possible to see that ballots could not be counterfeited or tampered with. Yet there is some- thing strange about a mailed result which brings in 50 per cent replies. THE EVENING STAR, News Behind the 'N ews Realistic View of Money Agreement Puts Goal Far Beyond Horizon, i BY PAUL MALLON. NTERNATIONAL statesmen, rejoicing over their Anglo-French-Ameri- can money understanding, are not fooling themselves as much as their carefully written public hallelujahs may indicate. They are still hailing the agreement as a first step toward a revival of world markets, toward a world economic conference and ultimate world currency stabilization, but are refraining from estimating how many more steps will be required. As a matter of fact, all realize privately the objectives are far beyond the horizon of their realistic vision, at present. No one wants to be realistic out loud at a time of rejoicing. It is enough that three nations can get together in accord these days on any- thing. But at the same time, business, financial and peace workers should know that the official and un- official authorities agree that the hope for world economic peace is much greater than the chance for it. * %k % For example, Treasury Secretary Morgenthau has announced the French voluntarily suggested dur- ing the course of negotiations that they intended to take up the ques- tion of quota restrictions on im- ports. This sounded as if the barriers to trade with France were about to be opened. Morgenthau neglected to mention the fact that France has al- ways said the same thing and that there is a trick in it. Her position always has been that she would one day revise her quota basis and at the same time revise her tariff rate. That's the rub. There will be no meed for quotas when her currency is adjusted, but there will be a need for tariffs and she will revise her rates promptly in accordance with the best protective traditions. . The result, there- fore, wili be just about the same in the end, as far as our foreign trade with France is concerned. There will be one marked difference. American tourist travel will be resumed. It was very low during the period of distorted currency rela- tions. The devalued franc will enable American tourists to get almost one- third more for their money. It meens American women also will buy more French gowns, perfume and luxuries. This, however, does not mean re-establishment of world trade or any= thing approximating it. To measure the impossibility of world stabilization and the futility of thinking about an economic conference, you,need only consult a monetary expert, be he Republican, Democratic or Lemkistic. First, there is the triplicate question of Germany, Italy and Japan. They cannot stabilize. They haven't anything to stabilize on. Their financial position is so uncertain and their currency basis so weak they cannot safely discuss the matter in public. Furthermore, many an expert wonders whether they will ever be in a supportable international monetary position if they continue to waste what resources they have on armament and on unprofitable conquests over Ethiopia, which bring no return. Their currency is simply in no position to be adjusted even to Lemke’s, and a few miracles will be required to improve it. As far as the big three powers are concerned, England and the United States will probably want to wait until the franc has found a natural level before broaching the subject of real stabilization be- tween them. This will require six months or & year or more. In the meantime, no one should consider the gentlemen’s agreement as anything more than an evidence of good feeling, a promise among the three nations to do what they should do anyway without a promise, a —_ sensible helpful working arrange- ment to meet a temporary condi- tion. * % ok % Military men have been doubt- ing that the Spanish government would try to hold Madrid after the rebels cut the rail line in the vicinity of Toledo. They figured the Madrid crew would hit the trail for a Mediterranean escape % by auto and airplane, leaving the populace to settle with the rebels as best they can. By the end of October, if this| number should be received, or any-| thing near it, I would be prepared to | Not much vengeance killing is expected to result from the rebel victory. The revolutionists want to gain foreign sympathy, and the authorities here believe they can establish a firm government. Consequently, the international reaction is likely to be quieter than if the Loyalists had won. France will frown, but is in no position to do anything about it. And it is mo secret inside foreign chan- cellories that Mussolini threatened war if the Spanish government survived. Much wonder has been expressed as to why testy Senator Glass is supporting the New Deal. Glass has not been quoted much, but he gave his reason in that unreported talk he had with President Roosevelt a few weeks back. Said he to Mr. Roosevelt: “Mr. President, I am against these New Deals, but if we must have one, I would rather have a first-class one than a third-class.” (Copyright, 1936.) fered free in the letters in response to any large mailing of a question- naire. The highest I have ever heard of is around 25 to 30 per cent. The Literary Digest has had big mailings and has polled large numbers of reg- istered voters in other election years with no such result as 50 per cent in Maryland or anywhere else. The Digest gets an average of 21 to 23 per cent. How then to account for it? It is possible that the Democratic organiza- tion in Maryland, which has a pre- cinct_ set-up that is very effective, sent word to the precinct captains to be sure and get out and vote for the Sun poll. It would be excellent strategy psychologically. No matter what the explanation of the unusual response, however, I believe the Balti- more Sun poll does indicate a Roose- velt victory in Maryland, but I will not be surprised if the majority is far less than the recent poll would seem to indicate. While the Digest poll shows a substantial trend to Roosevelt in Maryland, it is not any- where as big as the Baltimore Sun canvass. (Copyright, 1936.) —_— Silver Trophy Stolen. A silver cup presented by the gover- nor of Southern Rhodesia to the Ma- shonaland Turf Club for competition was stolen on the journey from Eng- land andsscrap iron of about the same weight substituted. Herring Kep From Grave By Talk Roosevelt’s Emphasis on Communism Issue Marks Memories. BY MARK SULLIVAN. R. ROOSEVELT'S address be- fore the Democratic State Convention -at Syracuse ‘Tuesday night was his open- ing speech in the campaign. It was his opening speech in the sense that it was the first made as an avowedly “political” speech, the first in which he spoke frankly as & candidate for re-election. His speeches pre- 4 ceding that, so it was represented, were speeches in 1 his role as Presi- dent, addresses such as any Chief | Executive makes. That the speeches as President were designed to help him as candidate was a matter of common knowl- edge—and we can safely assume that Mr. Roose- velt shared that knowledge. Indeed, could it have been managed, probably Mr. Roosevelt would have been glad to go on to November 3 making speeches only as President, never as candidate. In the case of a President in office, the indirect method of campaigning can be more effective than the direct, and under all circumstances Mr. Roosevelt “has a definite liking for the devious as opposed to the direct, for the complicated as opposed to the simple, for the masked flank attack as opposed to the direct frontal as- sault.” The words I have quoted are from perhaps the best analysis of Mr. Roosevelt’s personality that has ap- peared anywhere. They were written by James P. Warburg, one of the considerable number of fiscal advisers Mr. Roosevelt has had, but has no longer. ‘Warburg's little book “Hell Bent for Eiection,” is not written in malice. He, like many others, distinguishes between Mr. Roosevelt the man and Mr. Roosevelt the President. This combination, liking for the man, coupled with alarmed disapproval of the public official is so frequent with respect to Mr. Roosevelt that it con- stitutes a contemporary phenomenon. As Warburg describes his attitude: “I have a feeling of affection for him (Mr. Roosevelt) which longs to deny what my reason tells me is undeniable. It is much as if I had a brother who was a locomotive engineer and de- veloped color-blindness. I should con- tinue to love my brother, but I shoald certainly not feel justified in urging his employers to continue entrusting him with the lives of others.” Warburg accounts for Mr., Roose- Mark Sullivan velt's flair for the indirect on the ground that “it makes him feel su- perior to make every one think he is going %o do one thing, and then do another.” That in turn is part of the perennial boyishness which is strong in Mr. Roosevelt and which accounts for much of the personal liking for him by persons who think that as President he is undesirable. Un- doubtedly it has given Mr. Roosevelt mischievous delight to baffle his op< ponents by making speeches as Presi- dent which were designed to help re- elect him, but which were represented as not political speeches at all. If his little strategers was generally recognized, probably he did not care, but rather got additional fun out of it. The whole thing “tickled him,” he “got a kick” out of it. Puzzles Commentator’s However, this is not the place for any adequate account of Mr. Roose- velt’s personal traits. His is an ex- tremely unusual personality. Because the personal traits of any President have public importance, - especially when he has the powers that Mr., Roosevelt has, much about Mr. Roose- velt's personal traits has been written by contemporary commentators, and more will be written by historians. Most of the contemporary com- mentators are baffled by the difficulty of analyzing Mr. Roosevelt’s per- sonality, or by the pains and care demanded by precise description of it. Most of the commentators halt at the beginning, in the spirit of Ernest K. Lindley, strongly sym- pathetic to Mr. Roosevelt, who wrote in his book “The Roosevelt Revolu- tion”: “Mr. Roosevelt is an extremely complex person. Strip his high office from him, and he would remain one of those rare people who reminds you of no one else. The Nation has never had a President with his blend of pronounced qualities . .. It is not always possible to forecast in which combination Mr. Roosevelt's qualities are going to assert themselves, He has an extremely agile mind . . .” In his opening speech of the cam- paign, Mr. Roosevelt did an odd thing, and a thing that certainly was not indirect, and certainly had no touch of humor. He began with a repudia- tion of communism. To that he devoted the major part of his time. Upon that he put the greatest empha- sis of words, tone and manner. It was Mr. Roosevelt, not Gov. Landon and the Republicans, who brought communism to the front. True, Mr. Roosevelt brought it up in order that “here and now, once and for all, let us bury that red herring and destroy that false issue.” Emphasis Marks Memories. But if Mr. Roosevelt were calm he would realize that the very emphasis he put upon this point guarantees that the public will remember it. The charge, as put by Hearst and others, is that Mr. Roosevelt is supported by Communists. Expressed that way, the charge can be sustained. Com- munist leaders have told their follow- ers that in this election they want Mr. Roosevelt to win. Not at all because they think Mr. Roosevelt himself is a Communist. On the con- trary, they think he is ‘“capitalist- minded.” But they think the election of Mr. Roosevelt would be followed by developments which, they think, would promote the distant objective of the Communists. (Copyrignt, 1936,) HE opinions of the writers on this page are their own, not necessarily The Star’s. 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Our famous ment of dlamond ringi—ineludes num, white Set with sort Plati- and y fold mountings. fine diamonds. Esey Tormsl Ne Money Down! WASHINGTON, D. C, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 1936. We, the Peopfe Rise in U. S. Prices Seen as Justification for “Torpedoing” Conference. BY JAY FRANKLIN, ONTRARY to the impression which the State Department usually seeks to give, there is nothing sacred about our diplomacy which causes a government to consider it improper to play domestic poli- tics with our foreign affairs. On the other hand, since foreign relations involve other nations, it is generally felt that they should be immune from the pettier forms of partisanship. It is, therefore, regrettable that John Hamilton, Landon’s campaign manager, should have seen fit to brand the Treasury’s announcement of the Anglo-French-American currency accord as “a political broadside” and to resurrect Landon's charge at Portland that Roosevelt had en- dangered world peace when he “torpedoed” the London Economic Conference in 1933. At that conference, England and America were off gold, France and the smaller members of the “gold bloc” were on gold, and the stabili- zation proposals urged upon this country involved both a return to the gold standard and the accept- ance of a pound-dollar exchange rate considerably lower than the old parity of exchange. Since the price of our basic farm commodities is largely meas- ured by the purchasing power of British currency, which sets the world price, and since even then it was obvious that France would sooner or later have to devalue the franc, Roosevelt refused to ac- cept the proposals then made. e e If you want the figures which supported his rejection, the date of Roosevelt's “torpedoing” telegram—July 3, 1933—dollar exchange with London was quoted at $4.34 to the pound, September wheat at 971, cents per bushel, September eorn at 591, cents per bushel, and October cotton at 10.40 cents per pound. On the day of the recent Treasury accord—September 25, 1936—dollar exchange with London was quoted at $5.01% to the pound—up 13 per cent. September wheat at $1.17!4 per bushel—up 20 per cent, September corn at $1.157; per bushel—up 95 per cent (the drought pushed corn prices away up), and October cotton at 11.87 cents per pound—up 14 per cent. ‘This, I submit, is the best justification of Roosevelt's diplomacy at London, in terms of domestic statesmanship. For its justification as inter- national statesmanship, I can do no better than quote from Dr. Paul Ein- =ig’s “Bankers, Statesmen and Economists” (Macmillan Co. 1935). Dr. Einzig is & member of the editorial staff of the London “Financial News,” a member of the Advisory Committee on gold, silver, etc., of the Imperial Institute of Great Britain, and has advised several foreign gov- ernments on financial questions. Here is what Dr. Einzig has to say about the Roosevelt telegram which Gov. Landon and Mr. Hamilton find so shocking: “The harshness of President Roosevelt's tome was subject to criticism even in quarters which otherwise approved of his policy. But it was perhaps necessary for him to speak to Europe in that tone in order to strengthen his position at home. “Indeed, as far as it was possible to judge from this side, the very out- spoken manner in which he dealt with the London gathering disarmed much of his domestic opposition. “The author had some personal experience which confirmed this im- pression. During the economic conference two Republican politicians, Senator Moses and Colonel Knox of the Chicago Daily News, were in London with watching briefs. Neither of them had any reason to be particularly partial to President Roosev indeed, their object was to coliect evidence which might be used against him. “Notwithstanding this, they were both overjoyed when the message of July 3 arrived. ‘I would not have thought it possible,’ one of them told the author, ‘That I should ever drink the health of Roosevelt.’ “Those who realize how important it was for him for the success of his policy to obtain widespread support can hardly blame him for addressing the London conference in a style that was meant for home consumption. In any case, the London gathering deserved what it got, and more.” e ‘The truth seems to be that the recent currency agreement is the triumph of Roosevelt’s policy as advanced at London over three years ago. France and the gold bloc are going to devalue. There is to be “‘equilibrium" rather than “stabilization.” And not necessarily on gold, either. Secretary Morgenthau's purchase of a million pounds from the Russian State Bank 1is mot a “chivalrous defense” of British cur- rency. It is a continuation of the old Roosevelt policy of keeping the dollar-sterling exchange at about $5.00, to the pound, in order to protect American farm prices and to equalize competitive trade conditions between the United States and the British Empire. It was clever of Morgenthau to hang the bell on the Russians, but his defiant message was meant to be read quite as much in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Geneva and Wall street, as in Moscow. evse (Copyright, 1938.) | more . Headline Folk and What They Do Jack Johnson Attains Ambition With Role in “Aida.” BY LEMUEL F. PARTON. ACK JOHNSON, the Emperor Jones of the caulifiower jungle, will attain an ambition of many years when he appears in the opera, “Aida,” at the New York Hippodrome tomorrow night. A few days before he whipped Jim Jeffries at Reno in 1910 he told me he was going to be an opera singer some day. He liked Romeo and Juliet and Puccini. He wanted to talk about music and not about the fight. Fall- ing into his mood, I put my question & bit elegantly: “As to the fight, what do you ane ticipate?” He replied with great dignity and emphasis: “I wish to inform you, sir, that I never dissipate.” Touch of Suave Elegance. He is 60 years old and weighs 235 pounds. That's a lot of years and poundage, but operatic bravura has been Li'l Ahthuh's specialty and, as the boss general of the Ethiopians he ought to do nicely. Relaxed, he is beginning to look like an old fam- ily butler, with his amiable smile and his huge bald dome, but he sheds 20 or 30 years in his happier and more gregarious moments—sipping beer through a straw, discoursing on the arts, which engross him more and in his years as champion emeritus. There is a touch of suave elegance about him, including, of | course, his lacquered finger nails. They tell me he has a grown son and that he spends much time teache ing the lad to box. This may be news, Jack. they say. is very secretive about all this, but hints that he will unveil something sensational when he gets | the boy in fighting trim He has tried acting in London and bull fighting in Spain. In Barcelona, in 1915. he was pushed around a lot by a rather small, disspirited bull and the referee had to break them. The crowd took it as burlesque and enjoved the spectacle, although it was indicated that Jack hadn't meant it that way, Did Politics in Harlem. He almost played Othello in 1922 with the backing of his friend Moulai Youssef. the Sultan of Morocco, he said, but nothing came of it. Several years ago he was “rasslin’ a bull fiddle" in a Tia Juana and Los Angeles or- chestra. In New York he has made a few passes at starting a swank restau- | rant, in the meantime doing politics in Harlem, with a few turns at preach- ing. Last year he was chairman of the Colored League of Democratic Voters. | He told his audiences Jim Jeffries was a Republican and that he had smacked him the harder therefor “The Lord loves a cheerful giver,” he says, “and I've still got a punch.” (Copyright, 1936.) Congested Area Safest. Balford. England. second most densely populated and traffic congest- ed city in the kingdom, is the safest city of Britain for children to live in, not a single child having been killed in its streets in a year. Entire Stock Toilet Sets Buy them for yourself o gift! Smart, well ma and useful toilet sccessores Al packed handsomely Tined gift eases. Easy Terms! No Money Down! CLEARING THE WAY FOR A LARGER—FINER —MORE BEAUTIFUL CASTELBERG'S . .. IT WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST BEAUTIFUL STORES IN THE SOUTH. 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