Evening Star Newspaper, September 22, 1936, Page 11

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Figures Argue 50-50 Chance for Landon Political Observer Takes Past Votes in Maine to Support Claim. Prefatory note: In today’s dis- patch, David Lawrence presents & mid-campaign forecast based on his visits to 20 out of the 40 States on his tour and particularly on an analysis of the Maine vote in its relation to the popular vote in other campaigns. BY DAVID LAWRENCE. N _ROUTE TO THE MIDDLE WEST, September 22—I am oonvinoed at this stage of the campaign that Gov. Landon has a Afty-fifty chance of being eleoted. I am sssuming that two things will materialize in the next 30 days—one, that the Republicans will concentrate on the main issue, namely, the waste of public funds, and, second, that the Republican State organizations will eontinue to grow in their effective- Ress. § Iam basing the analysis of Lan- don’s chances on the way the 13 & States of the Far West and Rocky Mountains looked in August and on the way the New [ England States look in Septem- ber. There is a definite relation- ship between these two extreme sec- tions of the political map. Thus the Roosevelt fortunes politi- eally are at their highest point on she Pacific Coast and at their lowest on the Atlantic Coast. The strength of the tide that is running for Roose- velt in the West is not growing but receding and the Landon momentum in New England has an upward trend. But apart from this theory, which Pplainly indicates that the Middle West will decide the election, one can find rather conclusive proof of the fact | that this will be a close election and that London has an even chance to win by taking the Maine results and carefully analyzing all previous presidential elections in which we have had a large electorate with wom- en voting. Figures May Confuse. Tt is important at the outset mot %o confuse a September election wtih s November election in Maine. They are two separate and different things. Any attempt to strike an average be- tween the two, as statistical experts have recently essayed, may be an in- teresting mathematical adventure but 1t ignores the main political charac- teristics of the American electorate— namely, that a gubernatorial or by- election does not bring out the total vote that comes out for President. Also the vote which does come out for gubernatorial contests that are not held on the same day as presidential elections split, to a large extent, away from party lines. The myth that 62 per cent of the vote of Maine must be Republican in September in order to assure a Re- publican victory in the Nation in No- vember is easily exploded when it is noted that in 1924, for example, the Republican candidate for Governor won in Maine by 36,655 and polled only 57.2 of the total vote in the September election, and yet Calvin Coolidge carried the State in Novem- ber of that year by polling 72 per cent of the total vote cast and his popular vote in the Nation was 65 per cent. This year in the September elec- tion a Republican Governor has won by 43,000 votes and has polled 57.1 per cent of the total vote. The indi- cations are that Landon wul carry Maine in November by about ‘10,000 votes and will poll at least 60 per cent of the vote of the State. To use & 60 per cent figure as the estimate for November is being con- servative, because the record shows that a presidential nominee is much stronger with the Republican voters of Maine than a Republican nominee for Governor, especially as the people have nearly two months longer in which to scquaint themselves with the fundamental issues of the cam- paign. David Lawrence Basis for Estimate. To get 60 per cent does not appear difficult for Landon because the three eongressional candidates on the Re- publican ticket together polled 58.6 per cent, and it is fair to assume that Landon can make at least @ 3 per cent gain in a month and a half. Indeed, he may take 65 per cent of the No- vember vote if we add 8 per cent to the 57 per cent vote obtained by the Republican nominee for Governor in September, 1936. This might be jus- tified as a calculation because the Re- publican nominee for Governor in 1936 gained 8 per cent over the Re- publican nominee for Governor in 1932. Hence it will be contenaea that 1t is proper to add the same 8 per cent to the Hoover vote of 1932, which was close to 57 per cent. Whether the 8 per cent gain is added to the presidential vote of four years ago or to the gubernatorial vote this year the result is the same—it comes to about a 64 per cent vote for the Republicans. I am excluding from consideration the senatorial vote this year because Brann avoided the New Deal issue and ‘won Republican votes by so doing. ‘The only clear-cut contest on the New THE EVENING STAR, WASHINGTON, D. C, TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 1936. News Behind the News Order for General Budget Cut Brings Departmental Lamentations. BY PAUL MALLON. ERTAIN administration agencies are growling in an undertone about not being able to get enough money in the budget for next year, which is now being prepared. One independent commission has had its estimales thrown back twice now for reductions. snother has been cold to cut its estimate 10 per cent. In fact, all departmiental budget officers, except those of the Army and Navy, are complaining, although not officially, of course, because they dare not speak their minds. (The Army and Navy are going to be allowed further increases over this year's record allowance of $920,000,000.) This inner dickering is a nmatural part of budget making, but what makes it appear important this year, is that the complainants have been stilled by inside word that President Roosevelt has issued general cutting orders to his budget-maker, Dan Bell. Lamentations among the spenders seem to be too sincere to justify suspicions that they are putting on an act for campaign purposes. At _the same time they know as well as any one that such a situa- tion is campaign ice under Mr. Roosevelt's sled, and that tneir grief may be premature. A skeptical non-partisan out- Jook on the prospects must note these following factors up front in the fiscal foreground: (1), The size of the budget will be determined largely by relief needs and appropriations. No one now can have the slightest idea what these will be for the next budget year, which begins next July 1. ‘T'he assumption is general that the need will be less, but nobody knows how much. (2). The cuts now being made in confidential negotiations affect only the regular departmental erpenses, which amount to only about 8 per cent of this year's total expenditures, ercluding the . Army and Navy. Thus, they cannot be consideradle, and may not show a net reduction when balanced with the increases for national defense. Significant in this respect was the announcement last week by Treas- ury Secretary Morgenthau that no news about the budget will be given out officially before election. * ok ok % Incidents in Spain seem to have created a vague but general impres- sion that the rebels have some deep-rooted grudge against Americans. The bombing of the Kane, the reported mistreatment of American newsmen by the rebels, etc., appear on the surface to reflect some general unex- plained condition. Deal was in the congressional and gubernatorial races. November Vote Table. Here is a table which shows how the November vote in two out of three instances reveals increased percent- ages for the Republican presidential nominee as tompared with tne Sep- tember votes cast for the Republican gubernatorial candidates in Maine. In the third instance a candidate with an unusual personality polled an extraor- dinary vote in September as compared with the subsequent November vote for the presidency: Republican vote. percentage. 253,907 572 191,786 2.1 213,625 69.3 261,102 68.8 - 239,958 49.1 295,538 65.3 57.1 Sept, 1924. Nov., 1924. Sept., 1928_. Nov., 1928.... Bept., 1932__. Nov., 1932. Sept., 1936--.. Nov., 1936.... *Estimated on basis of other year ratios of increase. It will be noted that since 1932 The answer is they do not. Subsurface facts point to the opposite deductions. When the rebels entered a large city in the south, they hunted out the American Consul, to notify him first to get foreigners out. No other joreign comsul was thus singled out. Similarly, the rebel responses regarding the Kane incident were accepted by officials here as being unusually frank and friendly. The same spirit has been mutually erpressed in various routine co-operative efforts between our diplomats and the rebels, Unofficial sympathies here are stiil largely with the rebels. Note—The official conviction that the rebels would win has beeg strengthened since it was first reached here about two weeks ago. * ¥ * % Nearly every one in political life has declared himself on the presie dential contest, except two United States Senators from the same State. bill) and the fact that Landon is the nominee of their party. Both have announced themselves for the Republican candidate for governor, but have uttered mary a sound about the more im- portant matter. Those who have encountered Frazier in deep thought here lately have an idea he may resolve himself in favor of his friendship for Nye, who is not as close to Lemke, is reported to be in favor only of continuing indefinitely the munitions lecture tour upon which he has been embarked since the closing of Congress. Politics is certainly mixed up these days. Lemke. * * One of the original champions periment in Alaska has returned from a visit with a somewhat less en- thusiastic slant on the way it is working out. give each settler 40 acres, with cattle, $3,000 has been used up and each settler has but 10 acres. about $13,000 per settler to go through with the original program. The fundamental trouble is they have no market for their products. However, they can probably keep themselves going. under their present arrangement. (Copyright. 1938.) 50 as to apply only the most conserva- tive kind of estimate in order to show its meaning when used in another table that compares the Maine vote of November in recent presidential | elections with the popular vote of the whole country. ‘Women'’s Votes Included. 1T am starting with 1920 because that was the first election in which women suffrage played a part in materially increasing the total vote: Republican Percentai in Maine. 69.7 Republican Percentage, U. 8. Total Vote. Nov., 1920. 638 Nov,, 1924 2.1 65.2 Nov., 1928. - 688 58.7 I am excluding the 1932 election because in that year the Democrats won the governorship in September and the presidency in the Nation in November and we are dealing only with elecitons in which Maine in Sep- tember was an index of Republican victory in November in the Electoral College. The foregoing table shows that there is usually a drop as between the Re- publican percentages in Maine in the November vote for the presidency and in the Nation at large. This would prove that the Republican tide runs higher in Maine always than in the country as & whole. What is the dif- ferential? If we average the differen- tials in the three elections, namely the drop of 5.9 and 6.9 and 10.1, we get an average drop of 7.6 per cent. Now, if we subtract this from the minimum estimate of 60 per cent Re- publican strength to be voted in the November election this year in Maine we get & figure of 52.4 per cent as the estimated Republican share of the popular vote in the Nation in Novem- ber, 1936. Three elections—1896, 1900 and 1916—have been won by & per- centage of popular vote of around 52 or 53 per cent. The Electoral College votes derived therefrom have been more than & majority, namely, 60 per cent, 65 per cent and 52 per cent, re- spectively. The Republican partisans will in- sist, I suppose, that I should have used 64 per cent as the estimated Republican share in Maine in Novem- ber, 1936, and that the above tables ‘would then prove Gov. Landon as sure to be elected. But I am not prepared to agree that in a year in which such an extraordinary personality and so remarkable a campaigner as Mr. Roosevelt is the candidate of the party in power that the addition of 8 per cent gain to the November, 1932, per- centages is as yet justified. ‘The Democrats, on the other hand, will insist, I imagine, that I should have included the drop-off in No- vember, 1932, between the Maine Re- publican percentage of the United States total, which was 40.6, namely & spread of 15.5. But suppose we accept contentions, in other words, let's add the Repub- lican gain of 8 per cent of September, 1936, over September, 1932, to the Hoover per cent in 1932 in Maine. This gives us 643 as the indicated Maine Republican percentage for No- vember, 1936. They are Nye and Frazier, who are more or less Republicans from North Dakota. The two are reported to be in & quandary 10 feet deper than the one in which Robert Benchley spent 10 years. They cannot make up their minds, what with the money they got for Mr. Roosevelt for the drought, their friendship for Lemke (Frazier was co-author of the Frazier-Lemke inflation * X of the Matanuska resettlement ex- The original plan was to horses, etc., at & cost of $3,000. The It will cost Nation as & whole in all of the last four presidential elections. We get then an average decrease of 96.| Hence, by subtracting 9.6 from 643 | we get an indicated Republican popu- lar vote in the Nation of 54.7, which | would give Landon an ample majority in the electoral college. I am not ready, however, to add the entire 8 per cent on the one hand as indicated Republican gain in Maine this November, nor am I ready to accept 9.6 as the indicated Re- publican drop-off in the Nation as compared to the indicated Maine Re- publican vote in November, 1936. That's why I have just split the difference between both viewpoints. This brings & mathematical result which indicates a very close election. Hence, my belief at this writing that Landon has about a fifty-fifty chance to win in November. (Copyright, 1936,) WARD WINS PETITION FOR MICHIGAN RECOUNT Check for $17,335 to Cover Cost Posted as Former Coughlin Aide Seecks Senate Seat. By the Associated Press. LANSING, Mich., September 22.— Controversy Is of Service to Voters Roosevelt-Hearst Issue Invites Electorate to See Clearly. BY MARK SULLIVAN. RESIDENT ROOSEVELT and Willlam Randolph Hearst are both accurate in what they say to each other. Hearst says that Mr. Roosevelt is being supported by the Communists. Thatis true, Com- munist leaders in America have said repeatedly that they regard re-election of Mr. Roosevelt and defeat of Gov. Landon as best furthering the ultimate Communist ob- Jective. In turn, the President ! says, through his £ secretary, that' he “does not want and does mot { welcome the vote i, Y or support of any ¢ individualor group taking § orders from alien sources” That also is true. If Mr. Roosevelt were known to “ask” or ‘“‘welcome” Com- munist support, the knowledge would be seriously detrimental to his candi- dacy. This exchange of asperities will have certain amount of force in the cam- paign. To the thoughtful, the incident will achieve its greatest value if it serves to call attention to the largest question before America. That ques- tion is the relation of America to the revolutionary changes going on in Europe. Specifically, the question is, can the developments in Europe go on to their end without infecting the United States? ‘What has happened in Europe ean be put in & few sentences, though brevity makes precise definition im- possible. Beginning in Russia in 1917, a new form of society called commun- ism was set up. At once, communism began an effort to impose itself on other countries. Wherever commun- ism became a serious threat, another new conception of society, fascism, arose to resist. The outstanding char- acteristic of fascim, distinguishing it from communism, is that fascism per- mits private ownership of property, Mark Sullivan. Have Common Interests. In most other respects, fascism and communism have much in common. Both make use of dictatorship as the mechanism of government. Both deny most of the liberties and individual rights which in America are guaran- teed by the Constitution, which Amer- ica takes for granted as much as the air we breathe. To America, both communism and fascism are utterly alien. To all but a very small number of Americans, both are equally odious. In Europe, after 19 years, the sum of developments is that communism Secretary of State Orville E. Attwood accepted last night the petition of Louis B. Ward, Pontiac, for a recount of all votes cast in the Democratic primary for United States Senator. ‘Ward, former representative of | Rev. Charles E. Coughlin in Wash- ington, ran less than 4.000 votes behind Representative Prentiss Brown of St. Ignace. E. J. Steiner, Ward's business asso- ciate, filed the petition and deposited with the State a check for $17,335 to cover the cost of the recount. The PALAIS ROYAL DOWNSTAIRS Attractive Specials in the Shoe Repair Department RabberHess 49° Shoes made longer and $| Shoes dyed all colors. All work called for and delivered without extra charge. High quality oak soles. Palais Royal— Shee Repair Deot. \ wmummmtothin.cmmvhx&mtume,u the crown, Nature is painlessly warning you that you are on the road to baldness. Heed this positive warning and take immediate steps to eliminate the causes of hair loss and to awaken your dormant sources of hair growth. Your hair wants to grow and is trying to grow, but is hindered by ‘Thomas local scalp infections or by lack of nourishment. treatment effectively eliminates any or all of the 14 local causes of hair loss (responsible for 90% of all baldness). It gently stimulates the sources of growth and almost before you know it, new hair starts to grow on. the thin and bald spots. Each day The Thomas® are ending dandruff, stopping hair-fall and promoting normal hair growth for more than 1600 persons. They can help you, too, to have a good head of hair. Call today for a free scalp ‘World’s Leading Hair and Scalp Specialiste—Forty-five Officee Departments Suite 1050-51 W: for Men and Women. ashington Building (Cortier N. Y. Avenue and 15th St., N. W.) HOURS—) A. M. 0 7P. M. i SATURDAY te 3:30 P. M. -A- is firmly rooted in Russia (though lately it has modified itself slightly), fascism is firmly rooted in Italy and Germany. In Spain there is savage civil war between the two. In France, there is political and intellectual con- flict between the two ideals, with the Communist ideal growing. Here are five out of the six large countries of Europe (together with some smaller countries) subjected to one or the other of the new concep- tions, or battlegrounds on which the two contend. Everybody agrees that the tide of social revolution is still rising. U. 8. May Face Cheice. For America, the question is: Can we ride through this storm without taking on some variation of either communism or fascism and without becoming a battleground on which the two contend? It is & living ques- tion and a growing one, The Euro- pean political terms. “Left” and “Right” have become, during the past few years, almost as familiar as “Democrat” and “Republican.” The terms “communism” and “fascism” are becoming familiar; there is hardly a political speech that does not men- tion them. The most explosive de- velopment in:the present campaign is the charge that one of the candi- dates is supported by Communists. If any one knows which outcome of this campaign is the best to avoid what has happened in Europe, that is the outcome America ought to seek. There is & school of thought which asserts that Mr. Roosevelt has the best way, that his alternate veering to left and right is a good sailor's method of weathering the world storm. This is probably the best argument nrade for Mr. Roosevelt’s course as President and for his re-election. The difficulty is the net of Mr. Roosevelt's courfe finds him, at the end of four years, pointed in the direction which the country wants to avoid, and which he says he wants to avoid. When'the Communist leaders say they want Mr. Roosevelt re-elected, we must assume they know what is best for their pur- pose. Class Strife a Factor. ‘What causes the Commuiists to pre- fer Mr. Roosevelt is not, mainly, any direct. steps he has taken toward com- munism. Communist Presidential Candidate Browder says himself that Mr. Rooseelt is “capitalist minded.” Mr. Roosevelt's service to the social revolutionists lies mainly in his stir- ring up of class hatred. Class hatred is the soil in which revolution thrives. For the moment Mr. Roosevell's speeches are mild. But the spirit of his speeches as a whole is passion provoking. After he delivered his address to Congress last January even his devoted former aide and present supporter, Gen. Hugh Johnson, said the address was a “rabble rouser . . . deliberate appeal to passion . . . the joy of every advocate of class hatred here and in Russia ...” That speech, we may assume, and others similar, and the expectation that Mr. Roosevelt will make still others like it—that is probably the main reason the Communists want Mr. Roosevelt re-elected. There is & school which feels that to avoid social upheaval, election of Landon is the best outcome of the campaign. This may be true if stated with a necessary qualification. If Gov. Landon should be elected, and if he should be a mere stand- pat conservative trying to take the country back to old conditions, he would not avoid social commotion; he would further it. The American sys- tem imperatively needs certain modi- fications. The expectation that Lan- don knows this and will bring the modifications about is the best argu- ment for those who support him. (Copyright, 1936.) We, the People Power Conference Shows We Do Some Things Better Over Here. BY JAY FRANKLIN. a well-olled political campaign, Wash- of the Third World Power Conference. private electrical utllities are doing New Deal power program and when magnates and the President the lion lay down with the That is to say, the Government was represented by Secretary Ickes, Morris Cooke of the R. E. A., Dave Lilienthal of the T. V. A., Chairman McNinch of the Federal Power Commission, s well as lesser lights, under the homorary presidency of F. D. R., while the wtility crowd included such an anti-New Dealer as Floyd L. Car- lisle of Niagara Hudson and & whole galazy from the industry which e the bitterest joe of the present administration. The sessions were stimulating, harmonious, and of great interest to power technicians and planners from all over the world. * % x % ‘The point is that in almost any other country in the world such a spectacle would have been impos- sible. In Great Britain, for business men to presume to balk their own government would be a shocking scandal to be caretully concealed until all the differences were ironed out. In Japan, Mr. Carlisle would long since have committed hari-karl. In Germany, Italy or rebel Spain, people like Ickes, Cooke and Lilienthal would be in concentration camps or in exile. In Russia, not only the bourgeois utility magnates would have Deen ezecuted, but their liberal opponents would also have faced firing squads and the whole industry would have been under the thumbd of a good Marzian who didn’t know the diflerence between a dynamo and a doughnut. RN Over here, we not only disagree among ourselves as to the respective merits of the profit motive and the general welfare, but we can still do 50 with impunity and without any particular sense of shame. This seems to be tremendously important as a practical example of the meaning of American democracy. The sense of property is the most tenaclous and savage of social impulses, Within our times we have seen it drench several European countries with blood and split the Eastern Hemisphere into rival factions of “Communist” and “Fascist.” Despite our lusty materialism, we have never set such store by money a8 our foreign critics assume. Both individually and nationally, we prac- tice the philosophy of “easy come, easy go.” and, lacking the European caste system, do not regard the loss of a fortune or a job as the worst of all evils. Por one stock broker who committed suicide after the panic of 1929, there were thousands of Americans who saw their life savings wiped out, but who simply pulled in their belts and began again coura- geously. LI The point here is that the struggle between the New Deal and the private utilities is & struggle for wealth, property and power on an im- perial scale. Billions of investments as well as the fate of future gen- erations are involved, and it should be a set-up for the Marxian theorem of inevitable proletarian revolution. . Yet, under our system of life, here we can discuss the issues which send men to machine guns and bombs in other lands. We can meet in the same room and, while agreeing to disagree on issues, actually are at one on fundamentals. ‘We can still call each other nasty names in private and in the pub- lic print, we can retain smart lawyers and play “knock-knock” with the Supreme Court, but we doh't lose sight of the fact that the real value of America is as & going concern, and that everybody loses once a discus- sion is pushed out of the forum of politics into the arena of class warfare. * % * & We take this habit of mind for granted, which is the best proof of its power. Its essence is the Jef- fersonian bellef that nothing is sacred in human institutions and that there are no social or eco- nomic problems which cannot be settied by allowing free play to the opinions and interests of our citi- zens, Every now and then we slip a little. Before the Civil War the South treated slavery as sacred—a “peculiar institution” which became the test of all other institutions. Today there is an unwholesome tendency to regard the Supreme Court as sacred—an untouchable device which can block the will of the people. And—to be quite fair—there was an equally unwholesome trend in the early days of the New Deal to deify Roosevelt. This has passed and the Supreme Court craze is passing. What is left is a revived American democracy. (Copyright. 1934.) No deposits to pay * No empties to return % 14 the space in the ¥ refrigerator 14, the weight to earey * On the Air: BEN BERNIE and #alt the *, 9 P. M. Eastern Daylight Saving Time — Every Tuesday Evening— N B C network TRADE MARK Headline Folk and What They Do $14,000,000 for Art Project Raised by Mrs. Henry Breckenridge. BY LEMUEL F. PARTON. T PARIS, in 1903, Albert Santos= Dumont was exercising his wobbly little dirigible. A pretty, beribboned Paris schoolgirl in & fluffy dress and picture hat thumbed a ride. On this and one or two later rides, he showed her how the thing worked. The next Sunday she asked , to be allowed to 11y solo. He helped her into the frail wicker basket, and up she went alone. She flew over the Bois for two hours, made a nice landing— / then and now ths only woman to fly a dirigible alone. The schoolgirl was an American, Aida de Acosta, now Mis. Heniy Breckenridge. She heads Mayor Le Guardia’s Municipal Center Art Com- mittee, which reports contributions of $14,900,000 for the art project. Hes amazingly energetic and competent activities in civic affairs usually turn up some such imposing figure—as when, acting on her own quick im- pulse, she snared $4,000,000 from Baltimore citizens and others to estab- lish the Wilmer Ophthalmological Institute. ‘The famous Dr. William Hollani Wilmer, of Johns Hopkins, had saved her eyesight. Quietly, she obtained, bit by bit, from William, the doctor's old colored attendant, a list of about 400 persons whom the doctor had treated. Then she went to work. The $4,000,000 was rolled up in jig-time. Vastly she had widened the humane itarian range of the doctor’s great gifts, The “years between” the above in- cidents are quite as revealing, in their record of one woman's effectiveness in disinterested public effort. As a Junior Leaguer, she was president of the Babies’ Dairies Association and estabe lished the first eight baby clinics i New York, She was active and she got results in anti-tuberculosis work, in campaigns for open-air schools and rural rehabile itation and in the Association for Ime proving the Condition of the Poor; she stepped out briskly and sold $2,000,000 worth of liberty bonds during the war; she was overseas as a volunteer nurse and later engaged in adminis trative Red Cross work in France. Last May she organized the National Art Show. She is the daughter of Mr. and Mrs. Ricardo de Acosta. She is a sister of the late Rita H. de Acosta Lydig. She Mrs. Breckenridge | steers a big, wavering committee the | way she steered Santos-Dumont’s er= rant gas bag. Mere meliorists don't get much of a play in these rule or ruin days. Here's a human balance- brought-forward worth looking over. Government receipts in Sweden exceeding estimates. Beer or Ale in cans trademarked EGLINE AM. CAN coO.

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