Evening Star Newspaper, September 15, 1936, Page 13

TIME HELD ASSET TOLOYALIST ARMY Foreign Aid Seen Necessary to Enable Rebels to Maintain Advantages. This is the third of a series of uncensored dispatches on under- surface conditions in Spain, writ- ten by Walter Duranty, jamous + Joreign correspondent, after trav- eling for several weeks through the war-torn provinces of Catalonia, Aragon and New Castile. BY WALTER DURANTY. By Radio to The Star. TOULON, France, September 15.— An attempt to estimate the respective chances of the Spanish loyalists and the rebels is complicated by the fact that they are engaged in a political no less than a military struggle, and the communiques of both sides not only are contradictory but obviously are intended more as propaganda than as statements of fact. Also there are the international and time factors, both of which are of great impor- tance. Today the rebels have these advan- tages—greatly superior artillery, more munitions, probable superiority in air- craft, better discipline and knowledge of war and greater unity of command. The rebels’ artillery reduced Irunm, forced the surrender of San Sebastian and may bring the capture of Bilbao, whereas a lack of artillery accounts for the loyalist failure to take the Alcazar, although the rest of Toledo is wholly occupied, and the upper part of Huesca, although the lower town and the surrounding country have been occupied. for more than 10 days. Shell Fire Not Serious. Despite the lurid dispatches about “the terrific volume of fire” poured on Irun, I gathered from Irun defend- ers, who had secaped across the French frontier and had reached Bar- celona, that the shell fire had been more effective in the earlier stages of | § the siege, and then rather as a moral factor than by actual damage. “The first effect of the shells,” they said, “was so alarming that we abandoned positions we might have held. After- ‘wards, when we realized that the shells were less dangerous than we thought | & at first, it was too late to retrieve the situation.” The World War proved that shell fire, unless concentrated to & degree Iar beyond the possibilities of the Spanish rebels, was not overeffective against seasoned troops, but to raw levies it appears terrible, and there is no denying its value in reducing fortifications at short range. At this point the time factor and the international situation come into operation. On the. one hand, the Loyalists will acquire, by practice, co- hesion and steadiness. On the other hand, it is a question whether the rebels can keep up their artillery and airplane establishments and muni- tions supplies without foreign aid. Planes of Italian Make. Sailors in the battleship Jaime Pri- mero and the troops which partook in the active Catalan invasion of Majorca declare unhesitatingly that two rebel planes of Italian make were used to drop bombs and ‘then would 20 off across the sea in a northeasterly direction, returning in three or four hours with another load of bombs. An eyewitness deduced that the planes reloaded bombs in Italian ter- ritory, but they might have obtained them from a ship at sea. ‘There is little doubt that Portugal is aiding the rebels, if not with its own munitions, certainly with transit facilities. Should foreign aid be cut off or greatly reduced, the rebels would be at a disadvantage, as the ‘“class war” character of the struggle, which daily is becoming more accentuated, will cause labor troubles that will greatly hamper work in armament and muni- tions plants. Meanwhile the Loyalists, who have succeeded in converting metallurgical and other factories to armament work, especially in Madrid and Barcelona, already are producing arms, hand grenades, shells, airplane motors and Stokes type mortars in large quanti- ties and of good quality. Here, too, the time factor works on the govern- ment side. Differences Submerged. Much has been made by the rebels and their foreign sympathizers of the disunion of the Loyalists ranks— squabbles between Anarchist and other groups and between Catalonia and the rest of Spain. Differences of political views undoubtedly exist, but I have seen and heard enough to be convinced that they have been sub- merged in a common cause. Unity of command is less easy to obtain. Ex- perience and circumstances bring it nearer, but valuable time and effort have been wasted on this account. From a military viewpoint, the situation is still confused, but it is becoming clearer. Rebel gains in the north, which may be further extended, are offset by Catalan suc- cesses in Aragon. Anything like a complete victory for either side in either of these sectors would release troops to hold or attack Madrid. In this respect, the Loyalists seem to have the advantage, because their victory would be really complete, whereas rebel capture of loyal towns only serves to in the hostility of the population and the difficulty of communications, which are so important in a guerflla war like this. For instance, Gen. Franco's present drive toward Toledo and Madrid would be five-fold stronger if he were not compeled to divert troops to hold Seville and the surrounding territory, where the masses are bitterly hostile toward the rebels. 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