Evening Star Newspaper, October 27, 1935, Page 35

Editorial Page EDITORTAL SECTION he Sunday Star Special Articles Part 2—10 Pages DUCE SEEN AVOIDING EUROPE-WIDE CONFLICT Diplomatic Lull in War Crisis Gives Statesmen Chance to Realize How . Serious Conditions Have Become. BY ALBIN E. JOHNSON. ENEVA—The diplomatic lull in the European crisis which has set in may well be the prelude to a catastrophic storm, or it may equally well be a providential breathing spell during Which wise statesmen may make a superhuman effort to show that reason, | instead of force, can adjust funda- | mental international disputes. With the League moving slowly on sanctions against Italy, and the Brit- ish government—through a precipitous national election seeking a “mandate | from the people” to embark upon the | largest armaments program since 1914 | —in deadly earnest about defending | the Empire’s vital interests and the | covenant of the League of Nations, | Italy, and Europe at large, are be- | ginning to realize the seriousness of | the situation. | Behind the moves of the conservative government in London is more than domestic political maneuvering to win | an election. British statesmen are | far too cautious to capitalize upon a potential World War to further their party ends. They are taking advantage of the unanimity of the nation to put the country's armaments—naval, air | and land. in such a condition that they can single-handedly, if necessary. maintain their vaunted supremacy of the Seven Seas. There is one outstanding reason why Great Britain has not already acted decisively in checkmating Mussolini. That is the same as caused her to hold her hand until the fifty-ninth minute of the eleventh hour in 1914, when Europe teeter-tottered on the brink of war. She is not prepared to act alone, that is, to pay the price of such an action at this time. Later, if necessary, ves. But to throw her fleet into action now she would have | to have the fullest collaboration of | France. The Laval government isn't | in a position to promise this, with | Germany on her back again. So Lon- | don is getting all set to act, with the League, if possible, if and when it is ready; alone later if that becomes | imperative. The continual “confer- | ences” between French and British military leaders is the most significant thing that has developed the past! few weeks. And the eyes of the gen- eral staffs are not turned exclusively on the Mediterranean: they are fixed on Nazi Germany as well. London Builds Fences. Since the tension in the Mediter- ! ranean has eased the British foreign ! office has not been idle. Persistent | reports indicate that “understandings” | (alliances are not possible under the League covenant, but understandings, | which may automatically become al- | liances if the League collapses, are) | between London and Paris, London and Madrid, London and Athens and | London and Lisbon are being nego- | tiated. With such a backing—naval | and air bases in France, Spain, Greece | and Portugal—the royal air force and his majesty’s navy will be favorably situated to deal with any situation arising in the Mediterranean when the proper moment arrives. All that assumes, however, that Mussolini will try to hold out against League sanctions and at the same time continue his African adventure despite Geneva, Great Britain and Emperor Haile Selassie. But can the Fascists get away with such a program? And what is Nazi Germany up to? | There are still two important factors | to be determined. First, to what ex- | tent will Fascist Italy be able to carry | on in face of economic, financial and | military sanctions on the part of members of the League? Secondly, to he holds “in the palm of his hand.” The gold coverage of the German mark is only about 2 pe: cent these days. Italy’s Chronic Deficit. During the last five years every| Ttalian budget has had from 18 to| 25 per cent chronic deficit. During | the 1934-35 fiscal year it rose to 33 per cent—touching 6.819,000,000 lire. The | tréasury says—by heavy sacrifices—it will be able to balance the ordinary | bucget in 1936-37. The costs of the African adventure will be extra. They | have been estimated at 10,000,000,000 lire. In August the Ethiopian ex- | peditionary force took 10,000,000 lire a day to finance; in September, when hostilities began and the troops begani to burn up powder, etc., they were| estimated at nearer 25,000,000 lire per day (roughly $3,500,000). How is Mussolini going to raise this sum? First: A short-term loan of 7- 000,000,000 to be forced upon the banks, life insurance companies, etc., | has been authorized. It will carry in- terest at 5 per cent. Second: The public. which now holds 60,000.000,000 worth of 3': per cent state bonds, has been ordered to convert these into new 5 per cent state bonds. For every 100-lire bond converted the holder will have to pay | an additional 15 lire. Officials esti- mate the treasury will obtain about 9.000.000,000 ready cash through' this maneuver—if it is successful. Thirdly: The Italian people have around 38.875,000,000 deposited in banks as savings accounts. Mussolini | holds that the wealth of the people be- ' long to the government if it needs it. By seizing these deposits he can pro- | long the African war three years if | necessary. And the people can do| nothing about it. Italy is a dictator- ship and Mussolini’s word is law. \ There is also a report current, which | Italian bankers ridicule privately, that Il Duce has a “hidden gold reserve” which he has amassed over the last 12 years for just such an emergency as the present one. A fabulous, ro-| mantic war chest. But to date no| foreign firms have extended credit | against it. With credit drying up the | Italians are in a very difficult situa- tion—a situation more dangerous than | any League sanctions thus far imposed. | Mussolini must import at least 10 key raw materials, copper, iron, fuel and wool. To get these he must pay cash. | Financial Embargo. Only Germany, Japan and the United States—and perhaps Brazil— are not bound by the League economic sanctions. Washington slapped on an embargo of war materials even before | the League acted. The financial em-§ bargo, imposed voluntarily by British | and American bankers, has been on for | three months already. England, as far | back as August practically ceased steel ! and iron exports to Italy. Only 935 | tons was sold that month. Coal ex- ports from Britain also have practi- | | cally ceased, making the Italian navy dependent upon Polish, German and French coal. | The Nazis are said to have entered into a trade agreement whereby they will sell war materials to Italy against 25 per cent cash payment, 25 per cent | credit and 50 per cent payment in | goods. Poland is under contract to | | pay for two large ocean liners in coal. | Persia and Russia are selling heavy | consignments of petroleum for which | the Fascists have set aside 337,000,000 lire gold. These oil supplies are to | constitute a “reserve.” Russia also| has been exporting large quantities of wheat to Italy. | M WASHINGTON, Terrifying Marvels for Mars Billions Pour Into War Coffers as Weird Death-Dealing Contrivances Gain in Popularity. BY C. PATRICK THOMPSON. ARS’ equipment is out of date will need a complete ov: haul, keep an engagement with death on any modern battlefield. This revelation may surprise a The old war god's wardrobe with extensive throw- | oil, tin, rubber, manganese, zinc, lead | Outs and restocking. before he is fit to D. €, or pitch and give thrice the speed of the old naval-designed seaplanes of six years ago. Hence also the strong movement away from road-bound marching col- umns and horse-drawn guns and sup: plies, and toward the completely mechanized army, with its six vehicle | | types; the huge heavily-armored fort- | world citizenry who three years ago | ress replacing storm troops; the ar- were stunned to learn from Mr. Hoo- | mored machine carrying a field gu that the world’s annual arms bill al- ready topped $5,000,000,000. It emerges, nevertheless, as the high light of the Summer war games held in America and Europe, and over the subjoined oceans and skies, by the six biggest powers—the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. War staffs have been telling their governments for years past that Mars is getting to look very moth-eaten. They have conducted campaigns for renewals, urged huge purchasing pro- grams. Their argument has been concise, logical and nerve-shattering Invention Brings New Power. land, and the terrific impetus of mod- ern invention, have brought into sight on the horizon 60-mile-an-hour war- craft, heavy artillery with a mobility of 50 miles an hour, platoons of a dozen armored men with the fire- power of a present-day battalion, death-ray machines and disabling-ray what dagree will these sanctions be| While, internally, business is “boom- | machines, subterranean air bases as imopsed? pressure? | Also it is not known, officially, whether Great Britain is determined to bring about the downfall of Benito | Mussolini, 1. e, the removal of what | statesmen characterize as a “political madman” from the European scene.! And can Europe afford to risk eco- nomic and political collapse of a na- tion of 45,000,000 people, with its in- evitable chaos, which would be dan- | gerous for the entire continent? It might unieash forces in France, the Balkans, Central Europe and Ger- many which would upset the delicate international political balance so painfully built up since 1919. That | balance is extremely unstable already. Rome’s Position Dangerous. ‘That the condemnation of Italy| by the League is beginning to hurt the Fascists is obvious. Financially Rome’s position is precarious. Durinz | the past year her public debt has mounted to 105 billions of lire—a gain of 8 billions in 12 months. Italy’s gold reserve has dropped nearly 27 per cent in four months. It is now about 4,000,000,000 lire. This shrink- age has made necessary the suspen- sion of the 40 per cent legal gold “coverage for notes in circulation. Last | June the official “coverage” was 41.5 | per cent; today it is less than 27 per | cent. In June, July, August and Sep- tember the Bank of Italy lost 1,567.-| 800,000 lire; during the first 10 days | of October 250,000,000 lire were spent to pay for imports. Faced with a refusal by foreign countries to sell except for cash—a policy voluntarily entered upon by American and Brit- ish firms as far back as early August —and a choking off of credits, there is nothing left for Mussolini but to| spend his gold reserve now before the economic sanctions make them valueless. Meanwhile, by a controlled inflation the Fascists can increase their note circulation in Italy almost unrestrictedly. Through the National Exchange In- stitute, Mussolini has ‘“confiscated” | all the foreign exchanges of Italian citizens. According to official reports the treasury has obtained 3,000,000,- 000 lire in this way; private financial circles place the amount at slightly more than one billion. Later, if im- perative, the Fascists will seek to et hold of all wealth held abroad by Italian subjects. As a Draconian measure the treas- ury has instituted a strict control over all exchange transactions. Italy’s policy is now the same as Nazi Ger- many’s. The integrity of the lira is no better than that of the mark— which Hjalmar Schacht rightly boasts tirely artificial. Unemployment is| said to have dropped from 1,000,000 to | 536,000. But this is due to thousands | of idle being incorporated in the army and labor corps sent to Eritrea and Somaliland. There are also 750,000 men under arms in Italy itself. The institution of the 40-hour week also | nas absorbed many unemployed in | factories. But wages have fallen 20 per cent, while food prices, etc., have risen 15 per cent. Production in 1934-35 is reported to have been 6 per cent higher than 1928—chiefly due to the demand for war materials. Here again Italy’s situation resembles that of Nazi Germany, where the arma- ments industry is flourishing. The Italian public already is be- ginning to feel the pinch of new taxes. Collection of all income taxes is being pressed and lower salaries are now included. Railroad and transporta- tion rates have been boosted and high tariffs imposed on all luxuries. The | tariff has been removed on raw ma- terials necessary for munitions. Hope for Trade Abroad. If the economic sanctions become effective the Italians hope to get the necessary raw materials from non- League states. Last year 30 per cent of Italy’s imports came from Germany and the United States. Those two countries took 21 per cent of Italian | exports. [England took 11 per cent and the gold bloc—France, Holland, Belgium, Switzerland and Poland— around 22 per cent. Experts estimate, however, that an airtight blockade of League members will cost Italy about 73 per cent of her trade. The blockade will also be costly for the Leaguers. Yugoslavia sells 25 per cent of her exports to Italy normally. England exports goods valued at $45,- 000,000 annually to Italy and buys almost as much in return from the Fascists. France can get along with- out Italian trade and also anticipates repatriating some 500,000 Italian la- borers now employed in France, thereby reducing her unemployment drastically. Switzerland, likewise, could profit by such a move. As things are developing it-will not be surprising if Mussolini backs down enough to avoid Europe-wide hostili- ties. By so doing the League’s face would be saved. London and Paris would not be averse to re-establish- ing the old “spheres of influence” in Ethiopia. In England the Conserva- tives would have re-established their rule for another five years if they win the November elections. Disarmament will have been shelved indefinitely and militarism, rather than pacifism will have been recognized as the greatest How strong will be the|ing” in Italy the prosperity is en- big as Grand Central Station, poison gas accepted as legitimate and exploit- ed to the full of its terrific and ter- rifying potential, robot storm troops | operated from a distance. The whole tendency, the war staffs said, is away from the dull, heavy, | mass tactics of the Great War, and whole nations mobilized for protracted wars of attrition, and towdrd fast and flashing wars of movement, in which blows will be struck with crushing force and lightning speed, and the maximum use made of the surprise element. And this, they said, is not wholly due to the technical factor of weapon development. You must remember the effect in the last war of propa- ganda, defeatism, war weariness. poli- tics—all the dangerous phenomena resulting from a long struggle, which wears down nerve resistance. Men will not* again submit to the long- drawn-out agony of an indecisive and clumsy war. efficiency, which means speed and hit- ting power, and you must prepare to win, which means that you must be up to date. Otherwise, even if you win, you may lose the fruit of victory through the war-weariness of the peo- ple, the exhaustion of the treasury ur an economic and political collapse. Heavy Guns on Submarines. Governments bent an ear and ad- mitted the logic up to a point. Hence such contemporary marvels and mon- sters. as submarines displacing 5,000 tons and mowynting heavy guns; 54- centimeter howitzers poking enormous mouths out of steel-and-concrete cat- acombs in which a garrison can defy gas and live immured for - three months; 90-ton tanks whose armored sides a field-gun shell can only dent; formidable cruisers whose tanks store enough oil fuel to steam them clean around the world; great seaplanes with a 5,000-mile range and the revo- luftonary boat-bodies that cannot roll guarantee of peace—or rather main- tenance of the status-quo. The Ethio- pians alone would be the losers. In the “breathing spell” Great Britain will have an opportunity to rebuild her navy and air force and France will have another opportunity to at- tempt to forge her “ring of steel” around Nazi Germany. But no matter from what angle one looks at Europe, the future is pregnant with danger and war— sooner or later—appears inevitable unless there is a redistribution of ter- ritory and economic opportunities [y You must organize for | | ver, then President of the United |the fast, light, water-crossing | States (and no loose phrase maker), | replacing cavalry; a very fast machine with a high-veloci tunction as does a destroyer in a sea fleet and destroy enemy craft; a cater- pillar machine to transport infantry and engineers, and acother to handle supplies. But only a few of any of these have been provided ‘The governmental | grand chamberlains have always told the expert valets and grooms of Mars that the war god had no calling for full-dress u all stars, orders, medals f for as far ad as they could see. SUNDAY MORNING, OCTOBER and might never have one Bes sides, the citizens were broke 2nd the treasury was low. The thing could wait. And then the Japanese added eco- nomic power to their empire by seiz- ing Manchuria; Hitler and his Nazis broke through the treaty which limit- ed the German army to 100,000 and banned ownership of the more modern weapons, an actica which lcoked like the first step toward the conquest of a new continental empire, and finally Mussolini decided that the time had come to take a page out of the Japanese book and grab the raw ma- terial reservoir of Ethiopia. Whereupcn all the grand chamber- lains referred to the engagement book and perceived quite a number of ten- occasion dates anywhere and 1945, with 1938 as nger year. Could it be World War had really usive as the first Punic y cleared more in- that the fi been as War? the ground for the closer, TO POSSIBILITIES OF WAR 'Baldwin May Find Self Unable to Com- promise After Vote Because of Promises for Victory. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. HE announcement of a general election iin Great Britain next month has added a new and unmistakably ominous compli- cation to the already critical European situation. There have been sugges- tions that once the Tory government won a new lease of power by exploit- ing its currently popular anti-Italian policy, it would then adopt a less in- transigent attitude and agree to a compromise permitting Mussolini to escape from his Ethiopian adventure without loss of prestige. But the sug- gestion discloses wishful thinking rather than actual optimisn:. Every one who remembers the no- | torious khaki election of 1918 must tremble over the contemporary out- look. Seventeen years ago Lloyd George and the Coalition government set out on the morrow of the armistice to capitalize victory. In the course of the campaign which followed both the prime minister and his associates were driven by electoral circumstances to adopt a more and more uncompromis- ing attitude toward Germany until they were committed to the two slogans — “Hang the Kaiser” and “Squeeze Germany until the pips squeak.” The fatal consequences of this de- scent to extremism: were soon disclosed in the Paris peace conference. Thence- forth Lloyd George was steadily con- fronted by his campaign pledges and pronouncements whenever he under- took to agree to compromise: which alone could have made possible a reasonable treaty of peace. He was compelled, too, to take a stand in the matter of reparations which was re- sponsible for fixing the totals of Ger- man payments at fantastic figures. The resnlt was the complete wrecking of the financial and economic system of the Reich and the eventual triumph of Hitler. Revolution in Sentimen: Obviously the same danger of enforced intransigence arises again. Baldwin is going to the country now because the line his government has taken in the Ethiopian affair is mani- festly popular with all but the extreme tories. Little noticed outside of Eng- 1and there has been taking place with- in the United Kingdom something like a revolution in popular sentiment. The most striking evidence of this revolution is the recent resignation of the leaders of the Labor party, Lans- bury, Ponsonby and Cripps. ‘This resignation was due to the fact \that he rank and file of the Labor' * | party and, in particular, the Trade Unionist element which controls it, have abandoned their old devotion to the conception of peace. Today, under the spell of the events in Germany since the National Socialist revolution, British labor is ready to fight Fascism, whether German or Italian. Having | observed the fate which overtook the | Social Democrats in the Reich and tardily aware of the similar disaster | which befell Italian Trade Unonism, British Labor has abandoned its post- | war pacifist ideals and now identifies its own future as contingent upon the destruction of Fascism everywhere. That complete transformation in labor policy was disclosed ir the peace | plebiscite last June when upward of 111,000,000 British electors voted for continued British membership in the League and more than two-thirds for ! sanctions not alone economic but also | military in case of unprovoked aggres- sion. The bulk of this amazing vote | came from Labor and Liberal quarters |and it disclosed the abandonment of | the old peace-at-any-price position of | the opposition. It was, in effect, the disclosure of the purpose to make use fight Fascism. By July, therefore, when the results | of the peace plebiscite began to sink home, the tory government, which was already planning to go to the country, was confronted by a clear demonstra- tion that to win that election they must trim their sails to this new drift |in public opinion. Normally their own | voting strength was under 9,000,000; | victory, therefore, turned upon cap- | turing a material part of the 11,000, 1 000 who had voted to make the League the instrument of an anti-Fascist offensive. Italian Press Virulent Up to this moment the Baldwin cabinet had watched the development cisely the same lack of moral or politi- cal concern which it had manifested in the Manchurian enterprise. In June, . however, an incident for the first time awakened uneasiness in tory quarters most interested in guarding imperial security. During this month, and in response to the violent attack of the Labor and Liberal newspapers in England, the government-controlled press in Italy had indulged in a counter - offensive of unprecedented virulence. In the course of this counter-offen- sive there had been open assertions that Italy was in a position to render | of Geneva not to prevent war but to | of the Ethiopian adventure with pre- | 27, 1935. | publicans claim. i« timate clash of the great economic empires? After all, it was a fact that a few imperialist nations had grabbed two- thirds of the world’s lands and| brought a thousand million human | beings under their sway: that these | great empires have an economic basis‘ | which is imperiled in a machine cml-‘ | ization where productive power in- | creases while free markets contract; | that any of these empires, stripped of colonies and possessions, would fall to | minor rank among the nations, and might disappear; and that the modern world, for all its achievements in science and machine technique and | open to the looter once the armed | | guards are withdrawn or overpowered. | Now every nation with something | to lose, or win, in a dangercus world | is getting ready—if not to fight an- | other war, at least to build up the | type of war machine and organiza- tion which the next war will demand | if and when it comes. | | big that it accounts for a substantial | | amount of the current economic re- BRITISH ELECTION ADDS | ‘The marvels of the water, air and | The spiral of activity created is sq | covery (in Germany, for so much of | it that if rearming stopped the national economy would collapse). Armories, in fact, are full of junk,| | legacies of the last war in both techni- | cal and tactical ideas terms, and it has become clear that any big state caught in the next war, and still| thinking and acting in terms of the last war, will follow the mastodon into oblivion. When it was close to us, that last war seemed a marvel of scientific in- | | genuity. It certainly called for colos- | sal organization to conduct operations with any semblance of orderliness when a score of nations and all the | great powers were in the fight. Dur- | ing four years of the war more than 18,000,000 men were killed and died in sservlee. Statisticians have demon- | strated by comparative tables that, measuring by the numbers of com- batants engaged, many wars fought in the past with primitive guns, or with swords, axes, clubs, spears and arrows, were more destructive of life. Yet the cold truth about the great war is that it ranks as one of the clumsiest, dullest and most inefficient wars ever waged. Germans Didn’t See Far Enough. If one of the two great groups had started the war with the weapons and tactics in use at the end, that group | would have finished the war before | the end of 1914. Substantially, given will, money, imagination and purpose, it could have been done. But even the Germans, the most realistic and direct-minded preparers, did not see far or clearly enough, and so were doomed, like all the other belligerents, to learn as they went along. I myself was a speck, a molecule, in the cataclysm. But I was one of | those learners from August, 1914, until the end. The first bombs I heaved over trench bays were tin jam pots crammed with explosive. The first gas mask I wore was a woolen sleeping cap soaked in a weak acid. The first tank I'drove had plates that cracked under machine-gun fire and sent a spurt of hot splinters against the eyes of gunners working with faces close to the tank skin, so that the early tank warriors had to borrow from the Crusades and adopt a chain-mail visor. The bombs and masks of 1918, however, could have been developed by a year’s intensive work in 1913. The tanks I took into the Rhine zone at the war's end were technically possible in 1911 and 1912. The thought is just a personal in-| trusion. But it is the essence of the arms race. The race is no longer one for bigness alone.” A parallel race is under way in weapons, machines, in- ventions, ideas, tactics, strategy. Britain, controlling an empire con- taining a fourth of the world’s in- habitants and needing for its preser- vation the freedom of 80,000 miles of seaways and the integrity of the mother seagirt isle, has decided on early rebuilding of a large part of her giant sea fleet. She is not only enlarging her air fleet by 1,000 new- | South and West. | are paying heavier costs of Living and | each other—but the Republic: type planes, with 22,500 more pilots (Continued on Third Fage.) * . (Continued on Eighth Page.) G. 0.P. MARSHALS FORCES FOR FINISH FIGHT IN 1936 Party Realizes That It Is “Now or Never” and Prepares to Recapture Number of House Seats. BY WILL P. KENNEDY. HE most important congres| sional campaign in the history of the United States Govern- ment has started—more than 13 months in advance of the elec- | tion date. The Republicans are mak- ing an unprecedented offensive along all battle fronts for two reasons: First, they realize it is “now or never” for them to recapture House seats from the Democrats which will eventually give the G. O. P. control sgain of legislation. They feel that they have hit rock bottom and can't sink any further. Second. they have a real confidence that they are going to win back House seats in large numbers, that the swing against the New Deal is very definite and growing, and that the tide and the wind and public dis- satisfaction is with them for 1936 as it was against them in 1930, '32 and '34. So, the fight is going to be made— | “all along the line"—even in the erst- while “Solid South,” which is not now considered impregnable, and they have hopes of picking up a few seats there—in Florida and North Carolina, and there are rumblings, too. about prospects in Georgia. In many of the States, districts that previously have been admitted:y Dem- ocratic are to be given a new and aggressive tryout. In a number of States the redistricting has given grounds for doubf as to the political complexion of certain districts, in which party leaders are not sure—and the plan is to make sure. No possible chance is going to be passed up with- out a test. Also, there is a new sec- tional sentiment that means much in the campaign just getting underway— Western States, traditionally Repub- lican, have had the taste money, dam construction and irriga- tion funds, wheat and corn and other Pederal subsidies in large gobs and so are more inclined than normally to Democratic blandishments The Democratic spellbinders will be court- ing votes in the West. New England and other industrial centers nave suf- fered through the New Deal, the Re- They have felt op- pressed by the processing tax. and the encouragement to factories to move The Eastern voters increasing taxes—and will harken to those promising relief. The Repub- licans will woo the East as never before. Encouraged on Seaboard. ‘The Republicans have received their greatest encouragement from the en- tire Atlantic Seaboard, including the New England States, which promise to return prectically solid delegations to the Republican fold, and from such industrial States as Ohnio and Michigan. Probably the most em- | battled area will be in that midconti- | organization, remains a treasure house | nent group of States—Indiana, Illi- nois, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. In some border States such as Mary- land, Keutucky, Missouri and Okla- homa. there are districts which were held previously by Republicans, al- though they have a good Democratic baekground—and the Republican cam- paigners hope to pick up some of thes In California it is all an open que: tion, with so many groups of objectors and radicalism rampant—all fighting feel quite certain they will garner in sev- eral seats, and with the breaks, make a clean-up. But—the big Republican gains are expected in that group of States where their most disheartening losses were experienced in 1932 and 1934—Ohio, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri. In the States where there are members at large, such as Ohio (2), Illinois (2), New York (2) and Con- *necticut (1), the Republican calcu- lators feel they have a good chance to gather them all in—just dependent upon how the “swing” and “mo- mentum” gather—if the swing in the State is largely Republican, they | expect to get the at-large seats. They are banking heavily on the “swing” being in their favor. Reed Influence Strong. In Missouri the disaffection of for- mer Senator James A. Reed, anti-New Deal leader with a big following, and in Arizona the attitude of Lewis W.| Douglas, former member of the House, | estranged from the administration to such an extent that he resigned as budget director, are expected to have a strong influence in turning senti- ment against the Democratic admin- | istration. How much it will help the Republican candidates is problematical, but it 1s all expected to give some momentum to the hoped-for “swing.” The Republican spirits have been | rising and campaign plans stewing since the special election on August 6 to fill the vacancy caused by the resig- nation of Representative Francis B Condon on Jaguary 10, in the long-| time Democratic stronghold of the first Rhode Island district surprised the en- | tire country by sending a Republican to Congress with a big vote—Represent- | ative Charles F. Risk. They feel that of hog | abandoned American ideals of governe ment for socialistic doctrines. It nas hamstrung business as well as the ine dividual. It has proved its unrelia= bility. It has wantonly fooled ths people and is still trying to fool them even after threatening the cou financial structure and piling u; ghastly debt. Generations to will sweat and labor to pay the bl All this brings home the need fo vigorous and continued attack a such a system—to insure a stop W these un-American practices.” Three Speeches Already 3 Three speeches have already besn made in this broadcast campaign— by Chairman Bolton on October 2 ani by Representative Joseph W. Martin, jr., of Massachusetts. assistant Re- publican floor leader, on October 16— both over the Columbia system. and by Representative Theodore CL tianson of Minnesota on October 17, over the National Broadcasting Co. network. The next two broadcasts will be on October 30 by Representative John Taber of New York, Republican leader on the Apnropriations Come mittee, on October 30, and Repres| ative Charles A. Eaton of New Je: on October 31. This year there are or cial electicns to fill House v November 5. in the fourth K district, to fi R cy 2 ihe death Carden on June 13. Under the nominations for both partics made by the county committees. three Democratic candidates see the nomination were Edward F. Cre Andrew W Nichols and Judge J. Layman. The Republican or ticn decided not to name a candidate In the second New York district t vacancy caused by the resig Representative William F. Br on September 26 will also probabiy . filled on November 5. In the tw second New York dis he vacar caused by the death of Representat Anthony J. Griffin on January to be filled by the general elce next month. The non s are: V . Republican, and Ecw.il Democrat. s, the vacancy twenty-third district ¢ resignation of Repr W. Arnold on Sep vacancy-at-large cause Y nation of Representative Michael Igoe on June 2, will hoth go over ui of in | next year—the regular biennial elece tion. In Ohio Gov. Davey has refused to call a special election to fill the va« cancy caused by the death of Rep- resentative Charles V. Truax, at large, so this also goes over to the 1936 general election The Republican Congressional Com= mittee will be watching closely also the trend of the voting in the guber- natorial election in Kentucky where King Swope, a former House member, is the Republican candidate and “Happy” Chandler the Ubemocratic standard bearer. In Mississippi. the ship so certainly De: po.nt in watcling Strategy Is Gua-dod. which par 4 stricts F cans hepe to win from the Dem- eluctance to dis their strategy thus ear the cam- paign, but—the layout is broadly something like this In California—Hopes especially good to recapture the third, the old Currv district, now held by Representative Frank H. Buck; and with fights espe- cially in the seventh, eighth, tenth, eleventh. twelfth, thirteenth, four- teenth, fifteenth, sixteenth and eight= eenth. In Colorado—Local leaders hope for all four districts. However, Acting House Leader Edward T. Taylor has held the fourth district Democratic for 29 years. This is believed to be & personal and not a party tribute. The Republican chances are far from good in the fourth district—just the same about the old Rainy district (twen- tieth) and the old Arnold district (twenty-third), in Illinois. The Re- publicans feel that a change may come and that now may be their chance. In Connecticut—The break last time was even between the parties, and next year a persistent fight is to be made against the four sitting Democrats with especially good prospects of re- taking the third district held so long by former House Leader John Q. Til- son, and the at-large seat now held by Representative William M. Citron. In Florida—The Republicans ace showing unprecedented activity and hopefulness, and the scouts have in- timated that the Republicans may gain any one of the five districts. In Idaho—Both seats were for many years strongly Republican when held by Representatives Burton L. French and Addison T. Smith. Both will be fought for in the coming drive. In Illinois—An effort will be made in this is as prophetic as the election |€ach of the 25 districts for the two on February 11, 1930, of Representative William J. Grandfield, in the his- torically Republican second Massa- chusetts district which the late Speaker | e e hai b R au | el y presentative | Adolph J. Sabath, now dean of the Gillett had held for 32 years—which started the Democratic landslide. Republican statisticians and strate- gists have been constantly busy figur- | is there there? ing the votes cast in recent elections | to see what indications the size of | Republican districts. relative majorities may give—but they | | ty-fourth, the old Tom William dis- realize that any such academic calcu- lations will all go by the board when the expected “swing” gets started—it is the general sweep of public senti- ment on which they are counting| most. It is their main dependence. So, in this big Republican offensive for the 1936 congressional election, the general campaign has already been started—officially on October 2, when | Chairman Chester I. Bolton of Ohio | seats at large, although at least four Chicago districts are admittedly well entrenched by Democrats—the fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth. The fifth House, for 32 years, so what chance The third and the seventh in Chicago were formerly In the ninth, the olu Fred Britten district; the twen< trict, and the twenty-fifth, the Den- nison district, the Republicans con- sider they have exceptionally good prospects. The entire State of Illi- nois will be one of the liveliest con- gressional battlegrounds. General Contest in Indiana. In Indiana—The program is for a contest in each district, with only one strongly entrenched—Represent= opened a Nation-wide broadcast pro- | ative John W. Boehne, jr. in the gram of education, by nationally known members of the House, to em- phasize how President Roosevelt has “kept his promises” to “uphold the Constitution” and to “abolish useless governmental agencies.” Explaining this broadcast campaign Chairman Bolton says: “An analysis of the New Deal shows that & has been pernicious in squan- dering the people'’s money. It has - eighth. All others are claimed as promising Republican prospects. The fourth, long held by Hogg; the sixth, long held by Purnell, and the tenth, the old Dick Elliott district, are all claimed as Republican traditionaliy. Representative Louis Ludlow, who came in as a Democrat in 1928 in the face of a Republican landslide, direct from the press gallery as a Washing- (Continued on Eighth PageJ)