Evening Star Newspaper, September 21, 1930, Page 29

EDITORIAL SECTION The Sunday Star, Part 2—8 Pages WASHINGTON, C D. C, SUNDAY MORNING, SEPTEMBER 21, 1930. WAR DEBT REFUND TO U. S. JEOPARDIZED Suspension or Reduction by Germany| Would Result in . BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. HILE it is not difficult to un- | derstand the frritation pro- | voked in administration cir. cles by the declaration of Democratic Senator return. ng from his European travels that he has detected signs abroad of a vu!?oee to raise anew the question of allled debt payments, the surprise manifested in and about official circles is a bit| more difficult to explain. As to the firritation, it is clear thnt‘ it proceeds, in part at least, from the fact that any debt discussion is inop- portune at the precise moment when the single possibility of avoiding an in=| crease In ineome tax rates lies in the utilization of debt. payments to meet | current expenditures. Hitherto these payments have been applied to the ex- | tinction of national debt, along with | the annual surpluses of revenues over | expenditures. Default or repudiation | by our European debtors would then d-ummnuculy increase domestic bur- ens. As to the surprise, however, it must be ascribed to an ali-too-ready accept- ance of the notion that the 'mlkln(lmn and signing of debt settlements auto- matically insured payment. By con- trast, nothing has been plainer than the fact that the debt settlements them- selves represented a gamble upon the prompt and complete recovery of Eu- rope from the economical and finan- cial losses of the World War. United States View Not Accepted. e American view that the war debts were on the same footing as or- dinary commercial obligations has never found European acceptance, On the other hand, for a variety of rea- | sons the various European countries have found it inexpedient or imprac- ““;l to repudiate the obligations out- right. They have, however, on frequent oc- | casions disclosed the eonviction that| these claims were without moral war- | rant, and with even more frequent statement have revepled their convic- tion that payment was not possible. We on our side have clung to the double | conviction that Europe was morally bound and materially certain to be able 1o pay. Apt least partial confirmation of this American view has been found in the rapld recovery which followed the prostration of the war and immediate t-war years. Between 1924 and mn the upswing has been general and nowhere more striking than in France and Germany. If in Britain progress has been lacking the Dawes and Young plans have both assured to Britain German_contributions which, together with debt payments by allies, sufficed to meet American obligations without any direct call upon the British treas- ury. For a year now, however, German economic conditions—and, indeed, suff depression, which has been un - antly felt on our side’ of the Atlantic, | In a Germany with more than 3,000,- 000 unemployed, capacity to nr-y has again become both s political and a practical question. Grave Issue Ralsed. But for Britain, suffering even more acutely than Germany and with a higher and more constant rate of unemployment, the possibility of Ger- man default in reparations has raised & very grave issue. The issue is the graver since France and Italy have clearly indicated both to Washington and London that their debt payments are contingent upon German repara- tions receipts. ‘Were Germany, in evident good faith, compelled to reduce or suspend her Halting Remittances. world | BY BAD TIMES France and Italy payments, the British government of the hour, whether Labor or Tory, would | be_compelled by popular pressure and political necessity to approach Wash- ngton, asking for new terms or very| reat accommodations. And refusal | would almost certainly be met by the | frank confession of inability. Prolongation of the present period of | depression in Europe thus almost in- evitably presages the raising of the question of allied debts again, and the existence of hard times in the United States insures that any such happening will be excessively unwelcome. More- over, it is natural that the President and his adivsers should view with dis- pleasure any suggestion of an Ameri- can Senator which might serve to en- courage a European proposal. In this connection it is patent that in two respects recent American deci- sions have accentuated British and con- tinental resentments born of the debt issue. For Europeans there are but two methods of meeting the American obligations, first by goods and secondly by services. To be sure Germany has found temporary relief through Ameri- can loans, but this source is not only jporary, but has recently almost completely dried up. New Warnings Provoked. The cBurse of Congress, on the one hand, through its tariff legislation de- liberately intended to reduce the flow of Eurqpean goods into the American market, and, on the other, to expand the American merchant marine by sub- sidles, thus diminishing the European returns on their own shipping engaged in the transport of American produc- tion, has aroused European protest and provoked new warnings. t 1s, too, Germany that has the wQRole burden of reparations to carry, and Britain that is still responsible for three-quarters of present debt payments which are most immediately affected by the American policy. Nevertheless, despite senatorial warning, it is unlikely that Washington will, in any near fu- ture, receive any official request for a new discussion of debts. Europe will, in all probability, await the experience of the coming Winter. Moreover, we are already seeing on | the Contingnt & number of more or | less unconnected efforts to establish a | system of reciprocity between certain industrial and agricultural states, and at the same time other attempts to establish and extend cartel systems in industrial states. Back of all this lles the double purpose to reduce European purchases in America and limit the sharpness of competition between Eu- ropean states. Even behind the 1pln- European idea of M. Briand there lurks & subliminal thought of common action against the American rival. Concomi~{ tantly within the British Empire there is going forward the double process, the effort to establish an imperial tariff system and the attempts of various dominions to reduce American imports. Same Effort Maniifested, All these things are manifestations of the same effort to escape from the con- sequences of world depression. If good times urn the present anti-Ameri- can sentiment, which finds expression in tariff policies, is likely to diminish. On the other hand, if depression con- tinues, not only are tariff offensives well nigh inevitable, but sooner or later the debt question will be brought to the fore. As I have said these debt settlements represented a bet upon the return of European prosperity, if Europe became prosperous we won the bet, but at the moment Europe is, in the main, even farther from prosperity than America, hence the once familiar doubts as to debt payments are cropping up again in Europe and being discovered by the reparations p:eymenu. automatically interrupting nch and Italian debt itinerant anf!&lflnll Columbus. (Copyright, 1930.) Tutor System Seen as Making Headway ~ In Many Latin-American Colleges BY ROBERT P. TRISTAM COFFIN, Anna Adams Piutti, Professor of English, Wells College. ‘The idea of the honor course, which | has become a permanent fixture in the American colleges today, is really an academic recognition of an anclent | principle of pedagogy—that a student | who learns for himself learns twice as much. So different institutions, fol- lowing. the example of Swarthmore and Wells, have created the opportunity for | their better students to study one sub- Ject, or a group of related subjects, in- dependtly of classes and examinations and under the supervision of a tutor, | during the last two, and best, gears of | their college life. | The successful example of Oxford | and Cambridge overseas, where many | of the American pioneers in the field of honor work, got their training under the eye and pipe of an English don, | where undergraduates have been edu- | cated individually and outside the class Toom for many years, has helped to| provide a precedent for this new trend | in the American college. | But the honor idea would have come | in the end, even without such instances . of transatlantic success. For the grow- ing trend in American colleges away from the class and lecture ideal, away | from mass instruction, toward the prin- ciple of the conference would have brought about the change, ‘The honor idea is a remedy for some of the ills that have come with the tremendous growth of both colleges and universities in the last three decades. During this time a college education has ceased to be a luxury for the few and has come to be a necessity for both men and women who go into the pro- Zessions and into business. To supply this necessity institutions of higher education have expanded greatly. They have doubled and trebled their enrollments and their material equipments. Their teaching stafls have not always increased in proportion. The factory system of education has come as a result, Huge lecture courses, mass quizzing and an impersonal sys- tem or rewarding the best students with grades make up the very impersonal machinery which turns out the grad- uates of the modern college. A student s fed into a vast ma- chine and he emerges hall-marked with the name of an institution that has meant little more to him thag \sc- tures and examinations. The college family has gone. And, ‘worse still, the best students have been neglected and often lost in this proc- ess of the impersSualization of higher educetivi. An_honor student is a student se- lected on his ability and rescued from such a system de by democracy for the average. An honor student is @ student invited to approach a mass of material and to arrange it into the thing called an education. He is con- fronted, on a small scale, with the prob- lem of life. He is given the chance to create, out of detalls, a synthesis, He is turned out of the class room and | pastured in the college library, The old conception of a college course s so many compartments of this and that study he has been al- lowed to discard for a new sense of the unity and continuity in men’s lives in the past and the present. He has learned to go at studies as he goes at athletics. And the rating which comes with the examinations that cover his two years of independent study is a real milestone in his life, not a mere summary of separate courses spogn-fed to him, not a mere monument to his powers of memory. He has been rec- ognized as a sort of equal by his tutor, and he has gained confidence through this confidence reposed in his maturity of mind and in his sincerity of purpose. If education is sitting at the other end of a log from Mark Hopkins, then we are beginning to put ourselves into a falr way of giving our students the chance to get it. And the thing works both ways, Seneca said, 2,000 years ago. in that those who teach are those that | learn. The truth of that axiom is evi- | dent today. For there can be no bet- | ter discipline for the college professor | than a close and friendly association with a fresh miad. Where one brings experience and | training and the other zeal and youth, there is bound "0 come a new attitude toward study that will make the col- | | lege even more the schoolroom of the Nation than it has been, Irish F:e; VS‘u;le Bans All Forms of Gambling Lotteries are illegal in the Irish Free State and even whist drives and all sorts of games of chance have been | prosecuted by the police. Yet the | Parliament of the state has recently | authorized sweepstakes on a scale which rivals the Calcutta Sweep. The reason is the perilous financiel posi- tion of the 14 Dublin hospitals. They | have tried every device to keep going | and to maintain modern efficiency in treatment. But. the deficits grow and 1t was decided as a last resource to ap- peal to the government to pefmit the organization of a huge sweepstakes in their aid. The government was divided on the point and left the matter to a free vote of the Dail. President Cos- grave voted against the sweepstakes and some of his leading colleagues in the cabinet voted for them. The bill passed through both houses of Parlia- | ment and is fow in operation. ‘The sweep depends on the result of a horse race and the race is to be the Manchester November Handicap. The hospitals are to get one-fifth of the value ot each eicket. ‘The hospital authorities have shown the same division of opinion as was manifested in the cabinet. The Prot- estant Archbishop of Dublin de- nounced the whole scheme as an en- Note—One of the amazing things of American _ politics is the tremendous and continued whole-hearted interest in the life and activities of Calvin Coolidge. He was admired as President and his home courses at Northampton, . Mass, Recently A. B. MacDonald, a moted journalist of the Kansas City Star, vis- ited Mr. Coolidge, and his story built around his erperiences at Northampton is intensely ‘interesting. = The artiole of today will be followed by another in mezt Sunday’s editorial section of The Star, BY A. B. MACDONALD. ORTHAMPTON, Mass.—Trying to find out how our only living former President, Calvin Cool- idge, is spending his time, what work he is doing, what he does for recreation and exercice, how he lives in this old town of Northamp- ton, what his neighbors think of him and whether he will ever run again for the presidency or any other office, I went first to the block on Massasoit street where he had lived for 22 years in one-half of a two-family frame house, Known Only by Sight. In the quiet of the early morning only one person was in sight, an elderly man, coming leisurely out of another frame house. “That's the Coolidge house, the sixth one from here, yellow house with the white 1l le in front,” he sald. “You know Mr. Coolidge?” I asked. “We all know him by sight, but that's all. We don't really know him,” he answered. ‘This man had lived there, on the same side of the street with Coolidge, and only a few doors away, for 22 years. His children and the Coolidge children played together, grew up together, and yet this man, in busi- ness downtown, respectable in every way, living in as good a house as the Coolidges did, had never talked with Coolidge in all those 22 years. “I've seen him passing along this sidewalk thousands of times, generally with his hands behind him, walking slowly, head down, evidently in deep thought,” this man said. “I've met him here, on this sidewalk, & thousand times. If his eyes caught mine I'd nod to him and he'd nod back. Some- times I'd say ‘Good day,’ and he'd say ‘Good day’in return. Byt that was all. He was never a man to talk or be sociable. Little Conversation. “There's Dr. Plummer up there, lived for 12 years in one-half of that duplex house, and Coolidge in the other half, and he told me.that if all the talks he ever had with Coolidge in all that BY JAMES J. DAVIS, Secretary of Labor of the United Sta T IS now nine years since Congress l passed the act that sharply re- vised the attitude which this ecoun- try had up to that time main- tained toward immigration. The pressure of public opinion ch brought about the passage of this act was composed of many elements. One ings as to how successfully the famous “melting pot” was performing its work. But chiefly the pressure behind re- strictive immigration was economic. Post-war deflation had left us with an army of unemployed totaling be- tween five and six million people. Even so, our condition was better than that of countries which had more di- rectly suffered from the war's effects. For years before the war America had been painted to Europe as m land where any average immigrant might count on riding down Fifth avenue in his own limousine within a year of his landing here. Posters picturing this supposedly common rise were put up before the hungry natives in European countries by those who profited in the business of their transportation. Much of this legendary notion of America lingered after the war. We were supposed to have come through the conflict practically unscathed. The truth in regard to our real economic condition was discounted. The poten- tial European immigrant willingly ac- cepted the lurld posters as the truth and regarded the reality as propaganda. Literally, millions of people in the war- torn countries were poised to come here in 1920 and 1921. If we had allowed them to come, the former record ar- rivals of & million a year would have been greatly exceeded and to our total of nearly six million unemployed would have been added millions more. Bill Little Opposed. ‘The danger was so plain that the bill to stem this tide was passed with little determined opposition. From that post-war recession we re- covered with a rapidity that confounded pessimists and astonished us all. In two years the greatest number of un- employed since 1893 had vanished from notice. In three years more the couragement of gambling and the five ncipal Potestant hospitals have re- sed to take any of the money, gl country had risen to greater prosperil then 1. Daa’ ever nown P ey years further wa continued at nearly of those elements was born of misgiv- | UPPER: HOME OF CALVIN COOLIDGE, WHERE HE IS HAPPY IN HIS RETIREMENT FROM OFFICE. LOWER: RESTING HIS FRONT PORCH. MR. COOLIDGE AL- WAYS HAS BEEN KNOWN BY HIS NEIGHBORS AS A “FRONT PORCH SITTER.” 12 years were put together wouldn't make a conversation a half | hour long. “When Coolidge became President | they | this house in which he had lived for 50 many years became a shrine, you might say. It used to be a quiet street, as you see {t this morning, but then THE IMMIGRANT MUST NOT BE ADMITTED UNTIL THERE IS A PLACE FOR H IN AMERICAN INDUSTRY. Drawn for The Sunday Star by 8. Delevante. this peak. And among the several fac- tors that brought this about was re- strictive immigration, passed first as an emergency measure and then continued as settled licy, when its beneficial effects had been amply demonstrated. ‘The most superficial analysis should convince any doubter of this. It is uni- versally acknowledged that high wages contributed the major part to that osperity, by equipping with enlarged Exysn. power the most numerous con- sumers in our market—our of workers, It is they and their high ¥ wages that have made the American market what it is, & prize so rich that we have to surround it with a pro- tective tariff to keep it safe to our- selves and safe even to those outside who wish to tap it. With immigrants admitted by the million at the old yearly rate, competing for jobs with America’s unemployed in 1920 and 1921, this American wage scale Which ve- us our rity would never ve been le. Our economic re- covery have been retarded, per- Calvin Coolidge of Today Former President Wants to Be Let Alone—Has No Desire to Be President of United States Again people came in droves just to look at that house. I've often seen this whole street blocked with cars, from every State in the Union. mer tourists’ cars came by hundreds every day. They'd stop and stare. When Coolidge came back from the White House to live again in the same old duplex house the crowds increased. Chronic Porch Sitter. “People came, thinking, I suppose, that they might get a glimpse of him. And they often did, for Mr. Coolidge is a chronic porch sitter, like nearly all the rest of us on this street. He loved to sit on his porch in the eve- ning and smoke, and tourists found that out and they'd jam this street and just stare at him. I believe that is why Mr. Coolidge bought the Morris Comey house and went there to live last May. There he has nine acres of land, with a fence -all around it, and a back porch on which he can sit and smoke, all by himself, where nobody can stare at him.” As we talked another neighbor joined us, and_at this point he interrupted to say: “I think that was partly why he left; yes, he hates to be stared at and | he wants to be let alone; but that wasn't the only reason he gave up a house for which he paid only $37.50 a month rent to live in a house that he pald $40,000 for. The main reasons were that having lived in the White House so long he couldn’t accommodate himself again to the cramped quarters of this duplex house, and he had a cumulated a library of 5,000 books that | couldn't go into. this old house. Huge Writing Income. “But the main reason of all was that | this old duplex house wasn't dignified enough to be the home of the only living Ex-President of the United States. It didn't look exactly right for a man | who had filled the highest elective of- fice in the world to be living in one- ! half of an old yellow frame two-family house, so he bought the finest house | and grounds in Northampton and paid | $40,000 cash. He could afford it. They say he makes $500,000 a year out of his magazine and newspaper writings. I saw in the paper the other day that he received $150,000 in one check. We all think’s it's a big thing for Northampton that he has come back here, to his old home town, to live in such fine style.” As those two men, one in the musical instrument business and the other a dry goods merchant, started to resume their walk downtown, one said: “You'll Afid that, although Mr. Cool- idge is retiring and silent and unsoc (Continued on Fourth Page.) Lid on the Melting Pot Immigration Restrictions Held to Be Largely Responsible for U.S. Workers’ Advance. haps for years, and might never have been what it is. Now, through causes in which labor has no part, we are passing through an- other of the temporary periods of low demand which we thought we had con- quered. Again we have had unemgloy- ment in a volume that has been subject to bitter dispute and difference of opin- fon. For the first time a United States census, the only real means of counting the unemployed, has so far borne out the estimates of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, The number is not so high as the pessimists have insisted, but it has been at a level which we must re- duce and keep permanently reduced un- til we attain the vanishing point. Yet in another period of business re- cession and unemployment and in the face of the demonstrated contribution of restrictive immigration to the pros- perity we have had and shall have we hear recurrent arguments for its re- moval. There has been criticism in overcrowded countries which have al- ways looked to America to relieve them of excess population. They. have want- ed the same relief that we have assured forf Gurselves, from job competition and its economic results. Abroad, our atti- tude and the conditions which have forced that attitude may not be com- pletely understood. But to me, at least, arguments arising here at home against restrictive immigration are hard to com- prehend. A friendly foreign observer, Sir Henrl Detarding, has lately supplied these critics with a line of reasoning that no doubt many may take to be sound, especially as he gives it an economic turn. 1n & recent interview he raised the point that while restrictive immigra- tion keeps out competitors of American labor, it also keeps out prospective cus- tomers of American products, consumers of our shoes and clothing, our foodstuffs and household goods. And this, he added, we are doing at a time when overproduction or underconsumption has brought about a business recession. Reasoning Loses Weight. Such reasoning, it seems to me, loses welght at the first glance of examina- tion. The whole purpose of restrictive immigration is to admit only so many aliens as we can be fairly certain shall find employment. Experience has taught us that we cannot admit more and be sure to find them places in industry. And the unemployed man is not a con- (Continued on Third Page. i | that | could be looked upon as, on the whole, In the Sum- | BY MARK SULLIVAN. HE_national political _situation with the Democratic party has been clarified—but also made | more complex—by developments | within the past 10 _days. | It has been clarified by the an- nouncement of Gov. Franklin Roose- velt of New York that he is wet and that he has a definite wet program. If | event be considered standing | alone, Gov. Roosevelt’s chance of get- | ting the Democratic presidential nom- | ination—chances already _strong— furthered. But knowledge of what has | gone on among the national leaders of the Democratic party lately makes it necessary to say that Gov. Roosevelt | is not today so close to the Democratic | nomination in 1932 as he was uhree months ago. Two-Thirds Rule Forgotten. ‘When one begins an attempt to clar-| ify the national political situation with- | in the Democratic party, a fundamental fact, indispensable to be borne in mind | —but comparatively rarely borne in mind—is the thing that becomes famil- far just before each national conven- tion, but is commonly forgotten auring | the years preceding the convention, | namely, the “two-thirds rule.” In a Democratic National Convention it takes two-thirds to nominate. This is different from the rule in the Re- publican party. It is different from the rule in practically every State as regards both parties. It is a unique rule*and has had immense potency in | preventing some nominatioris ang facil- itating others. ‘The meaning of this rule comes out | more clearly if we state it the other | way round; in a Democratic National | Convention one-third of the delegates | can prevent the nomination from go- | ing to any aspirant. | Third Will Be 367. In the Democratic National Conven- | tion of 1932 there will be, roughly, 1,100 delegates. ber in 1928 and 1932 it will no: vary greatly.) One-third of 1,100 is 367. The first question, therefore, is whether there will be, in the Demo- cratic National Convention of 1932, 367 delegates who are dry, and who, being dry, will resist the nomination of | Roosevelt. | The second question, closely allied to | the first, is whether the dry Demo- | crats will have a candidate of their own, one outstanding candidate behind whom the drys can consolidate and | stand firm, Declaration Stiffens Drys. ‘The two questions, which, in effect, are one, came immediately to the front as soon as Gov. Roosevelt made Lis wet declaration. That declaration had nec- essarily the effect of stiffening the spirit of the drys. Had Gov. Roosevelt not & formal declaration of his wetness, his nomination. in 1932 would have been less repugnant to' the drys. ‘The drys would have thought of him as probably wet litically, but as probably sympa in a personal to the ideal of prohibition, elt, without his formal state- ment, might have been accepted by the Southern drys with tacit tolerance. But Roosevelt, having made the declaration, and having made it in a formal way, the drys were confronted with the necessity of taking an equally formal position.” That is, the drys now, if they accept Roosevelt, must be in a position of formally surrendering, of seeing the control of the Democratic party na- tionally go completely to the wets, prac- tically without protest from the drys. Robinson Looms. In the crystallization that followed Gov. Roosevelt’s announcement, it be- came apparent that if the drys have a condidate for the Democratic nomina- tion, their man will probably be Senator Joseph T. Robinson of Arkansas, The speculation becomes, therefore, whether Senator Robinson would have behind him a third of the Democratic National Convention. The further question is Whether Senator Robinson would lend himself to determined resistance to the nomination of Gov. Roosevelt. If Senator Robinson should stand, and stand to the end, he would by that act provide the dissenting third with the one indispensable attribute that they need to be effective. Semator Rob- inson would be a leader around whom the third could rally and stand fast. The possession of such a leader is ab- solutely necessary to give to a dissenting third the solidarity which they must have to make themselves effective. If the third does not have a single leader | and a single candidate, if the third is| divided, they can easily be overcome. In the discussion, public and private, of Senator Robinson as a potential | aspirant against Gov. Roosevelt, which arose immediately after the latter's an- nouncement, there emerged shreds and | fragments of a condition that always has very great weight in polities—but which the public is rarely able to value. Support Rumors Denied. There were statements and rumors, partly denied, to the effect that some | powerful wet leaders of the Democratic party (including, according to rumors Wwhich were later denied, Gov. Roosevelt himself) had said that if Gov. Roose- velt could not achieve the Democratic nomination, the support of these leaders would be given to Senator Robinson. These statements were denied, and the present article does not intend to deny the denials. Nevertheless, just this sort of thing happens frequently. To understand it, consider what Sen- ator Robinson has done. He, a dry, was nominated in 1928 as a candidate for Vice President on the ticket with ex-Gov. Smith, a wet, Senator Robinson accepted the nomination. He lived up loyally to every obliagtion and to every implication of obligation. He cam- paigned earnestly for the ticket. He did so at some cost to himself and at the peril of further cost. The oppo- sition which arose in Senator Robinson's State of Arkansas to his own renom- | ination as Senator, while it turned out to be ineffective, was nevertheless a liability and a detriment which he took on as part of the loyal service he had done to the Democratic party as a whole and more narrowly to ex-Gov. Smith and the other wet leaders of the | party. | Obligation Created. | ‘What Senator Robinson did created | an obligation, an obligation running | from Ex-Gov. Smith, as well as Mr. | Raskob and Gov. Roosevelt and all the | other Avet Democratic leaders, to Sen- | ator Robinson. | This kind of obligation is one of | the most concrete things in politics. No politiclan gets very far unless he | creates for himself the reputation of | recognizing such obligations as this and | lving up to them. In short, it must be assumed that ex-Gov. Smith, Mr, Raskob, Gov. Roosevelt and all the other wet and Northern leaders of the Democratic party have a sense of grati- tude to Senator Robinson. Their grati- tude toward Senator Robinson, for ex- (This was the num- | WET STAND OF ROOSEVELT MAY NOMINATE ROBINSON In Event of Deadlock on New Yorker, Arkansan’s Service to Smith May Count. Gov. Ritchie of Maryland—because Sen~ ator Robinson could be and was of service to them in holding the South= ern Democratic drys in line for GOv. Smith in 1928, whereas Gov. Ritchie had, under the circumstances, nothing that he could deliver. Senator Robin- son was not wholly successful, but he risked everything and had nothing to in. 5%S0 much for that part of it. All that one can say must be put in a series of “ifs” If there is in 1932 a formidable division between wets and drys in the Democratic party, if the drys have enough . delegates’ to constitute any- thing more than a third, if it becomes perfectly clear that the Democratic drys will not consent to the nomination of Gov. Roosevalt or any other avowed wet—in that combination of “ifs” it would be quite acording to the ruie of politics for the wets, including Gov. Roosevelt, to say to Senator Robinson, and to say generously and wholes heartedly, in effect: “All right, it is apparent’ we cannot get it, so we'll lét you have it.” Wet Gains Threaten Possibility. Such an outcome is a possibility only. It is prevented from becoming a possi- bility, it is even made narrow as & probability, by the plain fact that the Democratic party in the Nation as & whole has been taking long stéps to- ward the wet position, through their State organizations going wet in the large Northern and Eastern States. If this momentum goes on, the drys may not be able to command even a third in the 1932 Democratic National Con- vention. Let us turn now to a much more immediate aspect of Gov. Roosevelt’s chances. They have been impaired, seriously, by the recent scandals in New York City's Tammany. By this cause, Gov. Roosevelt’s chances have been reduced both in the eyes of the public, and, more importantly, in the eyes of the national leaders of the party. ‘The national leaders know, or sur- mise, more about these scandals than the public does. Rumor that passes from mouth to mouth among the party leaders say the scandals will go fur- ther, that they will reveal conditions hitherto unparalleled even in Tam- many, and that the scandals will fill big headlines for the nearly two years until the Democratic National Conven- tion in 1932, ‘That Gov. Roosevelt has no faintest part in the scandals, no participation and no condonment is completely un- derstood. Nevertheless, if the next two years should see a series of explosive scandals affecting the Democratic or- ganization in New York City, the re- sult would be a doubt on the part of Democratic leaders whether it is pru- dent to_give their party's presidential nomination to-a Democratic Governor of New York. Gov. Roosevelt has come to suffer another handicap. As the probability | of his nomination comies closer, ‘the national leaders scan his chances and his equipment more and more closely. Some of them discuss health. That Gov. Roosevelt's heal has not pre- vented the affairs of New York State from being administered capably is ac- cepted. But some national Democratic leaders—including wet ones and ones who are persenally friendly to Gov. Roosevelt—feel that a campaign for the presidency, and after that the presi- dency if it should be won, puts upen | a man's physical equipment such a bur- | den as in wisdom ought to be put only on the most robust. Young Draft Movement Seen. If the Democratic national leaders, including the wet ones, feel that for | any or all reasons it is inexpedient to nominate Gov. Roosevelt for the presi- dency, they will take, in sequence, two steps. Some of them, indeed, are al- ready in the’way of taking the first of these steps. Their first step will be an attempt to draft Owen D. Young. | Mr. Young has' personal reasons, in- |cluding his own health, and also his possibilities of usefulness in other fields, which will cause him to be reluctant to be drafted. One feels almost certain in saying, as of today, that the cup will be placed in Mr. Young's hands; if he rejects it he will be obliged to do so with as formal and convincing a re- nunciation as any man ever made. If Mr. Young should refuse, flatly, the second step of the Democratic national leaders would be to consider ex-Gov. Harry Byrd of Virginia, brother of Ad- miral Byrd. Ex-Gov. Byrd is a dry. But he is not dry in a sense that makes him repugnant to wet leaders. Byrd as a dry is much as was Gov. Roose- velt as a wet before he made his recent announcement. That is, Byrd is a dry of the sort that the wets think would not resist a reasonable working out of the prohibition difficult. | Analysis Shows 6 P.M. Most Dangerous Hour “Motorists, beware of the eighteenth our! " That slogan seems to be the most striking conclusion of the statis- tics worked out by the French road po- lice for the last five years. A careful analysis of the conditions in which oc- curred all the road mishaps, fatal and minor, during the aforesaid period un- mistakably show that 6 p.m. (the Prench 18) is by far the most dangerous time for motorists. ‘The safest are from midnight to 8 am. At 6 am. danger looms ahead and keeps increasing till 11 _a.m. Noon is comparatively quiet. French people, have their lunch at noon, but it is & short respite. One pm. is not too good; 2 pm. is disquieting; 3 pm. is bad enough: 4 p.m. is awful; 5 pm. is terrific, and, finally, 6 p.m. seems to be the perfect killing time. After 6 p.m. things immediately go easier, and 8 p.m. is as safe as noon; 9 pm. shows a tendency to more acci~ dents, but 10 and 11 are decidedly charitable, If vou have been lucky enough to reach these for good! Rome 7I‘)ecl;1;es War ~On Vagabond Catdom War has been declared on the cats In Trajan’s Forum! In their firm de- termination for a more and more deco- rous Rome, zealous city planners have decided to put the town's vagabond felines “on the spot,” so to speak, and the order for their wholesale eviction is sald to be imminent. Both amuse- ment and alarm were produced amo: Roman cat lovers by this decree an henceforth the scores of tourists who generously supply food to the Trajan habitues will have io take a northeast- wardly course to toe 20o. City fathers have assured citizens that the cats are to be taken care of by the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and that the pussies will be trans- ported in a fast moving truck to a more salubrious spot in the suburbs where a specinl home is to be provided ample, although he is a dry, is greater than their gratitude to, for example, for them.