Evening Star Newspaper, November 20, 1921, Page 66

3 AUTO REPLACEMENT MARKET CALLED FUTURE'S GREAT FIELD Banker Analyzes Conditions Found in Industry and Predicts Increase in " Number of Concerns Invelved. “An examination of available data points unmistakably to the conclusion that the great automobile market, of the future will be the replacement market. In 1922, for the first time in the history of the industry, more motor vehicles will be needed to re- place scrapped cars than will be added to total registration,” writes J. H. Collins in Automobile Trade Journal for October. “A recent analysis of the automobile industry and its future, prepared by a well known Cleveland banker, prob- ably presents the sanest expression on the subject which has to date emanated from financial circles. To the writer this report, coming from a banking institution, has a peculiar significance. Tt shows in an indirect way that the magnitude. future possi- bilities and business stability of the “wonder child” of American busine has at last impressed the financi fraternity, whose attitude for the past decade has been one of partial skepticism, to put it mildly. May Expand Figures. “The writer of the analysis just referred to limits the number of pos- sible purchasers of motor vehicles to twenty million. This figure repre- sents the number of native-born white men in the United States above the age of twenty-one. It is also the number of persons whose earnings, in the opinion of the writer, make it seem possible that they might be- come car owners. It is also the num- ber of white American families. On the face of the matter the evidence offered above seems rather conclusive. Closer analysis, however, brings to light some possible sources of error. In the first place, the increasing number of cars now being sold to residents in the United States of for- eign birth, and the purchase by our negro citizens of large numbers- of the cheaper makes of cars brings to mind the not unreasonable assump- ! tion that the figure given above might be expanded by nesrly 25 per cent without prejudice to actual facts. n the second place, it must also be remembered that hundreds of thou- £ands of car owners regularly main- tain from two to four cars each, thus swelling_total sales beyond the limit indicated abov A statement to the effect that the . present productive capacity of the automobile industry is more than one million cars per year greater than | would be required to maintain the | existing use of machines in a con- | stant status, is somewhat misleading ] | in that normal production and ca- | pacity production are not synony- | mous terms, and existing plants can | be, and have been, operated profitably ! on schedules appreciably below ¢ pacity output. As a matter of cold fact, normal replacement of worn-out cars for the next two or three years , would permit profitable operation of practically every well established plant now making cars and trucks. “The assumption that the average lite of cars in service will increase during the next few years is nega- tived by the fact that the largest in- crease in production during the past year or two has been in the low- priced class, where cheap construc- ion will, if anything, add to the an- nual mortality. Two Viewpoints Presented. “Having noted the above exceptions to what on the whole is an admirable report, it becomes necessary to Con- tinue our inquiry into the future status of the industry. A proper con- sidération of this problem involves analysis from two viewpoints: “1,” What is the condition«f the in- dustry itself with special reference to production facilities and inventories? What will be the condition and character of the market for motor vehicles during the next period of thres to five years? “The first consideration can be dealt with in a few brief words. Internal business conditions are still subject to considerable improvement, but, on the whole, the automobile industry has cleaned house with commendable thoroughness. Inventories have been reduced to a point which did not seem possible a year ago. Manufac- turing costs already are on a level with costs in other lines of industry. Prices in many cases are below pre- War levels, and this fact in itself not only will stimulate sales but will open up a new market among those to whom the automobile has previous- Iy been a luxury beyond the reach of =& limited income. “The important consideration today s: ‘What will be the character and condition of the market fdr motor vehicles during the next few years? “If we assume that the average Ii of cars in service during the next five years will be about six vears each (and there is nothing to indicate that the life of such cars is likely to ex- ceed such a figure materially), we realize tat the market of thé future is the replacement market. During past years more than half of all cars , made each year in the United States have gone to new car owners, therebs served to Increase registra tion totals. This is a condition which strength, extra safety, power. SIZE car. price. FEW KNOW DETALS OF CARING FOR CAR “Do It Yourself” Knowledge Lags Because of Many Service Stations. How about tracing out trouble in the electrical circuits in your car, or correcting the timing of the motor, admittedly continue in- definitely. “What concerns us most today is an analysis of the nature of the demand for cars during the next flve years. cannot get Obviously th is limit beyond O hioh Texistration totals will Increase | OF STInding the valves? Could you do | ine Sowly. It at all. I have no wish to |these things if either were necessary |con join the ranks of prophets who have estimated the saturation point. Recent price reductions to below pre-war levels already have meveds the the- oretical saturation point further ahead. On the basis of Industrial history for the past ten years we can, however, deal with the subject in an indirect way. Scrapping of Cars. “Under normal conditions about 800,000 cars would be scrapped dur- ing the calendar year 1921, while registration totals would be increased by about 500,000. Industrial depres- sion has stimulated the repair busi ness, however, resulting in a lower placement, and a consequent boost in registration totals through the sale of the current year's production. “On the 1st of last January over 9.000.000 motor vehicles were in'use in this country. Absorption of the current year's production, coupled with unusually low replacement of | old cars, will bring registration totals | on December 31 not far from the ten- million mark. “What does this mean? It means that well over 500,000 motor vehicles will_have been added to tie total number in use in this country during the worst business depression we have witnessed in a decade. It is evident, therefore, that there will be a grad ually diminishing, but none the le: steady, increase in registration totals for the next few years. It is not at all improbable that the total of cars in use will reach the 12,000,000 mark within the next few ¥ How far it may exceed this figure in the future is a matter for speculation only, but assuming that the twelve-million mark Is a possibility of the pelatively near future, and taking six years as the average life of a car in service, it can be seen that about two million cars per year will be required for replacement to maintaln a registr: tion of twelve million car: “It has been estimated that the pro- ductive capacity of American auto- mobile manufacturing-establishments is about 2,600,000 cars per year. Ci pacity production for protracted per ods of time is not always feasible, nor is it a business necessity. It is not reasonable to assume that during any given year in the near future every automobile plant in America would find it posisible to turn out a maxi- mum production during an entire twelve-month period. Certainly all of these plants will not need to oper- ate at an absolute maximum the year around in order to show a profit. | Therefore, it appears feasible to in an emergency? Most garage men, and they are in position to know, believe that you are to be congratulated on your knowl- edge if you are one of the old-fash- ioned few. who can do any of these things. The long and short of it seems to be that the substantial construction of the car and its parts and the fre- ing te are ber this “do it yourself” knowledge and superfluou instead of loading up his memory with a mass of details, remembers only a few items of routine care— things that he must do to keep the} lcar running smoothly and continu-!boo! ously. It is this sort®f information | that the industry has made popular. Hardly a day goes by in any garage |ea or service station without their|Sha noting the effect of the educational work that has been done by the ac-| cessory manufacturers and car build- ers during the past few years. The storage battery in particular has re- celved an unusual amount of atten- tion. The Willard Storage Battery Company has found that the greatest part of its sales and service work is really educational in nature, it must teach the battery user how to ladv. yea eno There can be little doubt that the car owner owes a good deal of his satisfaction to the efforts of the manufacturer and his representatives, who have taught him what to do to} A keep each part of his car in prime condition. General business Is languishing in| . Johannesburg, but there is an upward trend in the demand for motor cars, with oountry districts displaying| I more interest, according to the Na-| 4, tional Bank of South Africa, Ltd. e | 3, against the period of depression from Which we are just emerging. and must not be taken as a forecast of the future. They will represent the| H dying act of the depression period, and s such should be regarded with re- lief rather than with fear. “Our deductions lead us to belleve that production facilities must be maintained in the future at least on as sume that an annual production of |high a level as at present. As weaks hot more than two milllon cars would |r units drop out they can be replaced permit profitable operation of all|only in onme or two ways: fs in th : 3 By 'an expansion of existing is in the hear future and the cleareut| 1 nts to care for this business, or By new companies better fitted Export Trade Possibilities. o faTy the pEoe: “No consideration has been given to Most of the existing automobile export trade possibilities of the fu- plants expanded during the stimulus ture, nor have we estimated the final of war conditions beyond a normal growth. This very fact will serve to point beyond which registration totals | curtain additional expansion In most will not increase. Our interest now |cases, and hence we may reasonably is in the near future, and the clearcut | conclude that the place of weaker evidence before us shows two facts!units in the Industry will be taken rather clearly: by new concerns rather than by addi- “(1) That the great majority of cars|tional expansion of existing plants. made during the next four or five|This in turn will mean new customers Years will be required to replace|for parts and accessories, and an op- those worn out each year. portunity for the parts business to '(2) That replacement alone in the|grow along new and varied lines. near future will more than care for Summarising of Facts. the normal production of all welll g o i the case for the In- °"l"""",‘fc",‘;",:2"',:‘&‘;,:“""" In| gustry, therefore, we are faced with motor vel nuf: 3 “Coming down a littie closer to im- | 85 ‘R CHEE, R Notala tor 1921 win mediate business prospects, it is In- | go "EERIE S "Ge over ome-half teresting_to note that over 1,500,000 ! 7iNC %Y spite of business depression, motor vehicles will have passed their | thus” indicating that the so-called sixth year of service at some time|point of saturation is still a matter during 1922. If the expected upward the future. reaction in general business condi- ‘2. About one and one-half million tions becomes a reality, this means|cars probably will be needed during Bee) car, he that knocks you down, Schaaf, a local motorist, writing for matter to remember it. The follow- vised for committing such numbers number 40842. “Drl When they gave me this and merely do that, Finley yesterday about his new car. Mike just got his car last week, but he wasn't very enthusiastic when interviewed yesterday about and had to repair having any idea how to go about | read it very carefully. Simple Method for Remembering | License Numbers When Knocked Down by an Automobile. . “It is quite an important thing to the license number of the car " says Joe B. Police Gazoot. “However,” he tinues, “it is not always an easy method has therefore been de- memory: Take, for instance, the The first two numbers 40. It is not necessary to remem- 40, you merely remember 20 and | then multiply that by two. “For the next number don’t bother remembering the number 8, just think of how many wheels theré are on an quency of service stations makes all |automobile and then add 4 tq that you have it. 8. For the last two The up-to-date driver,|numbers just remember 84 and then divide that by 2 and you have 42. Mr. Schaaff explains that the great antage about this systéem of re- | membering is that you don’t need any ks to learn It. x isn't the only thing you do with an automobile,” xaid Hen ekle Figure It Out Yourself. If all the autimobile tires used In & r were plled side by side they or a ugh to reanch from here take care of his battery. middle of mext week, sald Cyril Creappuft, the boy statistician, today. A Mighty Queer Thing. mighty queer thing Once happened to me, Said my uncle Dill Pickle One evening at tea. Johannesburg Market Improves. | One day on the road My engine got hot, nd burnt out the bearings Right there on the spot. called for a man From a nearby garage, nd I asked him to please Not let the bill be too large. ut I felt that the cost Of repairing the car ‘Would be enough to pay-off All the debts of the war. then, bill For only six thirty-three. low dumfounded I wi Is easy to see , Directions always say lmgly do ** sald Mike in talking with a reporter it. It ms that the second day he had the he had a puncture out on the road it himself. Not took out the instruction book and The thing that more than one and one-half|1923 to. replace old cars. with a million cars, including the replace- | promise that total annual replace-| ment of old cars overhauled and kept|ment may reach two million in the| an extra year in service in 1921, will | near future. be needed for normal replacements.| “3. The present productive capacity No such total has ever before been|of existing motor vehicle establish- required to take the place of scrapped | ments will soon be utilized profitably cars, thus indicating that the annual [to care for the replacement business market for new cars is changing over. | oi ew production is more and more going to replace the old. Barring an unforeseen continuation of business stagnation a car production for 1922 by a further expansion of existing greater than the total output for 1921 | planta, and thus the field for the Wil be needed to take the place of|DParts yaker will not be narrowed to worn-out cars alone. If we assume | smaler number of lines. a limited sale to new car owners, and | “On_#uch a showing. which makes a modest export outlet, there is rea- |little‘aitempt to cover an expansion son to assert that the productive|of the mrket to new flelds, or a re- capacity of the industry will be very | Sumption of normal export’ business, profitably employed during 1922, we certainly are not justified in tak- i, & ink a gloomy view of an industry ew Fallures Recorded. which has an assured future market “A noteworthy feature of the aito-|more than sufficient to care for any moblle business during the past twelve [output possible with present produc- months has been the comparatively | tion facilities.” small number of failures in so great an industry. It would be ubwise’at this time to assume that we are safe- ly by the period of danger, but those y. 4. The place of weaker units in the motor vehicle fleld probably will be taken by new concerns rather than Model 47 Model 47. Sedan—Deliver “O VERSIZE,” in an automobile, means extra THE OLDSMOBILE is an OVER- It offers more value for its price, does more for its size, performs better for its class than any other car on the market. throuout, in motor and construction, but NOT in OLDSMOBILE SALES CO. 1016-1018 Connecticut Ave failures which may come in the near future are properly chargeable Internal combustion engines. The more COUPE $2 3 55 their cylinders, the more power New Price generate. Delivered b4 , $2595 AUTO DRIVING 1931 Ford © ipped AMERICAN MOTOR SCHOOL $th & O Sts. N.W. Phome N. 10-400 Why Buick Valve-in-Head Mot_ors Have More Power We Teach AND Traffic Regulations Gear-Shift Cars. Double Cemtrol. CHAS. E. MILLER, Inc. 812 14th St. 4 Doors Nerth of H St. motors are heat heat retained ‘in they S Water-jacketing space absorbs heat. Buick Valve-in-Head motors have , extra comfort, extra - It is OVERSIZED power. IMMEDJATE D _ STANLEY H. about 20% less water-jacketing space than the L Head type and about.15% " less than the T Head type. ' That is one of the reasons wh'y Buick Valve-in-Head motors- -have more Space mumber 6 at.the Closed Car Salen. . HORNER Retall Dealer A 1015 14th Street N.W. RSV Telephone Matn 5396 . - WHEN BETTER AUTOMOBILES ARE BUILT - BUICK WILL BUILD THEM °¢ Answers to Last Week's Questions. 1. Keep your engine in good run- ning order, especially in cool weather, and do not drive for long periods at a very low rate of speed if you desire to keep the storage battery of your car well charged. Because the start- ing motor requires a great deal of current for revolving the engine, especially when it is cold, the engine should be tuned up so it will respond after a very short period of cranking. Long and continued cranking will render the battery surprisingly weak after a few such starting attempts. When driving the car try to keep its speed up and over the point where the generator_cuts in_and charges the battery. This point can be easily de- termined by observing the ammeter on the dash, which instrument re- fcords at the instant the generator cuts in. Constant driving at a low speed is another reason for weak bat- teries. A third cause Is the indiscrim- inate use of lights. Drive with them dimmed if possible, and do not allow the car to stand for great lengihs of time with the lights burning. Pre- caution s necessary with cold weather approaching. and the driver should use his battery sparingly so it will serve faithfully during the com- ing season when plenty of “kick” and durability are most needed. 2. The balanced crankshaft A party of twenty-six automobile,signed to make an engine run more men attended a luncheon Thursday |Smoothly at high speed. This tybe of shaft cuts down stress of whipping at the Racquet Clun. given by the|,;q consequent loss of power which | Oldsmobile Sales Company of thisimay be found In the ordinary shaft city. Michael Keane, president of the | &t very high speed. but at common : 5 . s of power from this source ! local company, Introduced A, B. C-|is not noticeable, and only smooth- Hardy, president of the Olds fac-|jeqq of operation’is considered. tory; G. H. Peasley, factory sales—|"3"giiner the gasoline or the air ad- manager, and A. L. Deane, financlal | jugiments of o earburctor may _be expert of General Motors Acceptance. |alterad first, according to how the Mr. Hardy, who is one of the pio- If the gaso- neers of the industry, spoke of its fnrburelgi' was] regulated. ine needle val is se y birth up to the present day. Among ve is set correctly, but those present were many deglers l?e E]lxlum requires more air, only lhfi’ alr adjustment ne a. from. nearby towns and salesmen and J e oacianged-The service manager of the local organi- rule applies to conditions of too much | tion. tuel and not enough air, when the gaso- B. J. MacMullen, retail sales-mana- line adjustment would be changed. lowever, if you do not know which i ger of the Dort Motor Car Company i Juste of Flint, Mich., paid a visit to Wash- at fault, shut off the gasoline adjust- ment until the engine misses from a ington last week. lean mixture. Then slowl en th The R. and H. Corporation, for- merly the Scripps-Booth Sales Com- needle valve until the engine “gallops™ from too rich a mixture. Turning the pany, have taken on the Willis Sainte Claire car. adjusting screw back and forth between these two points will soon give the cor- An exhibit of the entire line of the new Maxwell cars will be held in rect gasoline adjustment. Next cover the air inlet or tighten the valve which the showrooms of the local dealer |admits air to the carburetor to a point during the coming week, at 1321 when the engine chokes and then slowly 14th street northwest. open the valve to,where the engine runs well. Most carburetors have a fixed = supply of air and an auxiliary air; Motor Bus Aids Schools. Motor vehicles are building up the schools in North Carolina, in the; S P E C l n l opinion of the Fayetteville Observer. “Who ever thought,” this paper ob- ¢ FOR NOVEMBER R California Tops serves, “that education and gasoline would hitch up together in the cause of the country school? And yet such has come to pass in the consolidated school plan. The children of the district are conveyed’ to and from school in motor trucks, called ‘kid an wagon: which hold, comfortably, twenty to twenty-five children.” Craftsmen Finish e e Convert your touring car or roadster into a closed car. See us and have us explain the craftsmen finish for cars before painting your car. Our_painting and _trimming department is now prepared to give you an estimate. A typewriter has been introduced into India which will write the 360} The Acme Auto Top Company that made him mad, said Mike, was that in the book everything was, imply do this and merely'do that.” Just like it was easy to do. He was pretty sore at the thing yesterday and he sald that the next time that he went riding In that car in his good clothes he'd stay home.[ TRADE NOTES. is de- QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS FOR THE AUTOMOBILISTS ! the engine is run inlet, but always set the gasoline ad- justment correctly and as lean as possible before the auxiliary inlet is| readjusted. As a final test speed up the engine, and note its operatios as further adjusting may be necessary for high speed. 4. The term “floating” a battery on a line means using a battery to sup- ply current for lighting a car when the generator of the system is not re- volving fast enough to supply the current. With this arrangement the generator at a _sufficient speed charges the battery and furnishes | lighting current. ‘When its speed dies the battery again is the source. Thus the battery and the generator alternate {n furnishing power neces- sary for ‘the various parts of the system. 5. If the starting motor cranks! your engine too slowly the trouble may lie in the starter itself, in the storage battery or possibly in the engine. Brushes of the starter may | be loose or there may be a poor con- tact somewhere between the battery and starter. The battery may be dis- charged, plates sulphated or the bat- tery ¥nay be old and practically worn out, o that it will not supply suf- ficient current to revolve the starter. If the trouble lies in the engine it may be caused by the bearings, rings or pistons fitting too tightly, causing engine to revolve v. Bearings or cylinders may . increasing the crank- xpeed. The latter trouble, of will result in scored cylin- burned rings and bearings and seizing of the friction surfaces if in that condition. 6. To find the percentage of grade in a road divide the length of the road down grade by the height or number of feet rise in the road. For instance, if a road goes up hill for a_distance of 200 feet and the top of the hill is twenty feet higher than the bottom the grade would be one-tentl® or 10 per cent. 7. There is a greater tendency to skid on the part of solid rubber tires than there is with pneumatics. This is particularly true at high speeds: in fact, at any speed above fifteen or twenty miles an hour. 8. The vapor which is emitted from the crankcase through the breather pipe or oil-filling plug is usually the fuel charge which should remain in he tops of cylinders to be ignited, but because of leaky piston rings, passes by the rings into the crank case and thence out of ths oil open- ing. This trouble is more evident when the engine is running at high speed and has been in operation long enough to be warmed thoroughly. ssme reason the ofl jtself will gel by the rings and into combustion chambers, fouling sparkplugs and de- positing carbon. 9. Sparkplug electrodes should al- ways be set at the correct distance apart. The plug fires if the spacing varles a trifle from that given as correct, but carelessness in this mat- t may cause damage to the high tension winding of magneto er coil. If the space betw Points~ 18 to great there is liability of the Wind ing burning out, because of too much resistance 10. The distributor brush does noi always rotate at speeds propo te to. thove of the armature of & i neto. As an example, the magreto armature for a four-cylinder Shaine revolves at crankshaft speed and he distributor brush at one-haif cra shaft speed. On @ six, however, th armature turns three times o 1o of the crankshaft, while the brush of the distributor rotates at the sam proportionate speed required for 11 four—that is, half of cramkshaft speed. This is accounted for by ‘he fact that the fourcylinder engine re quires four sp: f revolution creates two sparks in one revebation its armature nced revolve onk s ic or the same speed as the crank.,,Th six-cylinder engine requires » sparks in two revolutions, the u neto making two sparks per yax tion, revolving one and a half, while the engine crankshaft spyel once. Distributors of both engines,s however, make the required number of contacts, either four or six, in one revolution of the brush This Week's Questionn.. !/ 1. What is wrong when a Midtige battery will show & satisfietory hydrometer reading, but will fail to deliver a sufficient’ amount of cur rent for use in starting or lightis 2. What happens when the spurk is not advanced as an engine’s speed is accelerated? 3. How i the spring_assembled, differ from the s elliptic spring? 4. Why are exhaust pipes made to extend as straight as possible from the engine to mufler? Why would sharp turns be objectionable? 5. How are different speeds made possible, as produced by nging gears in the transmission? , 6. What are dual, double and two- spark ignition systems ' 7. Is it necessary 1o wash away the mud which sometimes fills the spaces between radiator cells? - s. How is it that a storage bat- tery becomes weak when charged by the generator a part of the time while the ca driven? 9. Was the three-quarter floatin axle in use on the automolile . early as the seml and full floating types of axles? 10, What causes the o cantilever rear and r burned oy When the cylinder oil is thinned b: the heat it will allow more Jeak- age past defective rings, and for the MOTORING new block. y characters of the Begalia_alphabet. ! 1421 Irving St. NW. BopIEX W, e Phone Col. 5276 017 XEW YORK AVE. N.W. . THE JOY OF —is increased 100 per cent when the motor runs true. . Then, too, you save gas and oil when the engine is reground, new pistons, pins and rings properly fitted. It takes but little time and the cost is far less than for a 'l"alk It Over With Your Repairman Washington Autometive Grinders’ Association Washington, D. C. blackened appearance the o mutator in an electric generat (Copyright, 1921, Thompson Feature Se buy extravagantly. ing in small spaces—consistency. - Place your order now for reasonably - Gatisfactory terms can be arranged. ' Y R. L. TAYLOR COMPANY J 1840 14th St. N.W. ' 1529-31 M St. N.W. DONOHOE MOTOR COMPANY 315 Pennsyivania Ave. S.E. TRIANGLE MOTOR CO. N. Y. Ave. at N. Capitol St. STEUART'S GARAGE,. 1. TNIVERSAL AUTO COMPANY, (Ine.) ’ Youll Enjoy its Beauty and (onvenience Automobile satisfaction is the result of buying wisely and economically, rather than the dgsire and the means to Figure out your every automobile requirement and you'll find it in the Ford—with some to spare. Dependability, economical upkeep, ease of'handling in traffic and park- ' These are things you find in a Ford car only after you drive it—and these are things that make for complete satisfaction. prompt delivery. \ Authorizéd Washington Ford Dealers HILL & TIBBITTS 14th St. & Ohlo Ave. N.W. PARKWAY MOTOR COMPANY 1085-1087 Wisconsin Ave, ROBEY MOTOR COMPANY 1429 L St. N.W. STROBEL MOTOR COMPANY 1425 Irving St. N.W. 41-151 12th St. N.E. Thewe Denlers Can Sell Ford Cars, Tractors, Parts, Ete, Anywhere in the United States Immediate delivery on Sedans, Coupes, Touring Cars, Roadsters, Chassis, Trucks and Tractors.