Evening Star Newspaper, August 8, 1937, Page 27

Editorial Page Special Articles 'EDITORIAL SECTION he Sundiy Star Part 2—10 Pages JAPAN’S MAILED FIST ENDS PEACE ADVOCATES’ HOPES Example, in Face of Ineffectual Tactics to Avoid War, May Touch Off Ger- man Territori BY CONSTANTINE BROWN. HE Japanese invasion of Northern China has shattered the final hopes and illusions of | the principal advocates of “peace and respect for international | obligations.” Secretary of State Cor- | dell Hull, one of the last sincere believers in a “better world in which international trade may be resumed on the basis of honorable treaty ob- ligations.” sees in this unwarranted aggression the final blow to his hopes of bringing the nations of the world together in a friendly co-operation for the promotion of peace and trade. Once more one of the three leading dictatorships has shown that it relies | more on the mailed fist than on agree- | ments by negotiation. And what Japan | did in 1031, what Italy did in 1936 | and what Japan is doing again now may be repeated shortly by Germany. This totalitarian state has so far ob tained virtually no new territo The example of Japan and the help- lessness of the democratic states in face of armed aggression set an ex- ample for nations with a strong mili- tary force. It is in this light that the new Sino-Japanese conflict is re- garded in Washington, Paris and London. The Japanese incursion of the | northern provinces is the result of a | well-thought-out plan of the Japa- nese military clique in Tokio and | their associates, the powerful finan: cial and industrial groups Disappointing Manchukuo. Manchukuo has been a disappoint- | ment because it neither offered a | suitable territory for colonization nor | did its natural resources reach the expectations of the Japanese indu trialists. International bankers rate it as a frozen asset which cannot be thawed out for years. Not more than 175,000 individuals have settled | in Manchuria e Japan took it over. The former soldiers were given | free land, were granted long-term | credits for azricultural equipment. | Along the Soutn Manchuria Railroad | farms have been established whicl were so fully equipped and well or ganized that they compared favi ably in the eyes of American ob- servers with our Wisconsin model farms. Despite all the expensive ad- vantages provided for these farmers | by the government, they were not able to compete with the Chinese who emigrated into Manchukuo in large numbers after 1932, and today most of those model farms are abandoned The exploitation of the natural re- sources of the puppet state were a disappointment, t00. Soon after Man- churia became the independent state of Manchukuo the extraction of the | various minerals from the Manchukuo sofl proved more costly than if ihey were purchased in foreign countries. This was known to the Japanese in- dustrial magnates for a long time, and thelr “patriotic contributions” to the many loans fioated by the government of Manchukuo were obtained prac- tically at pistol point. Thesp'powpr-‘ ful backers of the military clique | maintained that the financial sacri- | fices of the empire would begin to vield profitable returns only if the rest of Northern China were placed | under the direct control of the im- | perial government. They told the government and the Emperor that | while Northern China would not offer any better ground for the surplus population of Japan than Manchu- kuo, the enormous wealth of the five | provinces would permit them to es- ! tablish branch factories there. [ Coal, Iron, Cotton and Oil. Iron is to be found in large quan- tities in the provinces of Shansi and Shantung. In Shansi alone there are some 300.000,000 tons and the annual production under the uncer- | tain administration of the Chinese ! ‘war lords amounted to 1,500,000 tons | & year. The principal coal mines of | China are in the same province. There | is cotton and antimony and oil in the | coveted territory. With raw materials | and the cheap labor which is to be found in China and with the Japanese genius for business, said the : Tokio, | Osaka and Yokohama magnates, the ‘Western powers would soon be pushed out of Asia and the trade which for nearly a century has béen in British | and American hands would fall into | the hands of the Japanese indus- | trialists and workers. | ‘The physical control of the five | provinces—Suiyuan, Hopei, Chahar,f Shantung and Shansi—became in the eyes of the Japanese government an | essential factor for establishing the | country on a solid economic and social basis. It is true that since 1935 the military commanders of three of the five provinces have been in the pay | of the imperial government. But| arrangement was costly and unsatis- factory. While the invasion of the northern provinces had the full approval of the financiers and industrialists, the general staff saw in it a chance to consolidate their position on the Asiatic mainland. The operations, they believed, would last no longer than two or three months at most. They would require the transportation to China of something like half a million men. These troops might be used either in the Fall, weather per- mitting, or next Spring against the Boviets to complete the conquest of the northern section of Asia by tak- ing the maritime provinces from Russia. Vlacivostok is considered by the Japanese as the most important port for the development of their newly acquired provinces. Chiang’s Bark Worse. "Tokio, like many observers in Wash-' ington and in London, does not be- leve that Gen. Chiang Kai-shek will do more than threaten and talk. He will not risk his German-trained divisions far from their base of opera- tions against the incomparably better prepared and equipped Japanese Army. ‘The position of Chiang is, of course, difficult. He is compelled to adopt a bellicose attitude because of his “popu- lar front” in Nanking and other parts of Bouthern China. The students and other white ‘collar workers are shouting for action, as they did in 1932 when the 19th Route Army was heroically defending Shanghai. Chiang Kai-shek cannot ignore these people. He must make gestures | chine guns, tax | theless, al Ambitions. as he did during the Shanghai affair, but the probabilities are now, as then, that his troops will remain at a re- spectful distance from the Japanece forces. Chiang is not ready yet. He has made remarkable strides in the consolidation of his position in the south and in awakening a spirit of national unity in his country. But his position is still precarious. A de- feat at the hands of the Japanese | might mean his downfall and plunge | vhat is left of China south of the five provinces into a state of anarchy. Many of his . faithful generals are looking for a chance to take the Chi- nese dictator's place, even if they | could only establish themselves as re-+| gional dictators. China’s manpower is. of course, incomparably superior to that of Japan. But modern warfare makes it difficult for men with rifles and large swords to fight against ma- s, airplanes and poi- During the recent battle in the Chinese troops, over- | whelming in numbers, but lacking | modern equipment, were easily de- feated by the 15,000 Japanese regulars possessing the latest instruments of destruction. Furthermore, if Chiang Kai-shek were to declare war on ‘he Japanese | government—either officially or un- | officially—the Japanese fleet could be son gas. Tientsin | rushed to Nanking and Shanghai, | thus compelling the Chinese general- issimo to fight on three fronts. This would be suicidal. West Looks on Helpless Hence the Western powers, after having admonished Tokio in the best | League of Nations style, after having solemnly warned Japan through their okio embassadors not to use force gainst the Chinese, are looking on helplessly at the new rape which Ja- pan is perpetrating on the Asiatic mainland. In Washington it is admitted that | there is mothing this Government could do to prevent Japan from em- ploying the strong-arm method to complete the plans it has had as far back as 1915 for the conquest of | Northern China. Mr. Roosevelt and | | Mr. Hull do not intend to “stick their | necks out” as did Mr. Hoover and | Secretary Stimson in 1932. The Jap- anese Ambassador at Washington and the Japanese premier in Tokio have been “advised, urged and counseled” to refrain from any acts of hostility, but this time the Japanese Empire | has not been threatened with strong | measures. Washington realizes, never- | that the doctrine of non- | recognition of territories occupied by force ‘will not deter the general staff | in Tokio from taking these parts of | China, which are linked in the eves | of the Japanese leaders with the wel- | fare of their country. The administration does not even | contemplate recognizing an actual state of warfare between China and Japan, as it did at the outbreak of | the Italo-Ethiopian hostilities. There is no reason for that. Senator Pitt- man, the chairman of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, made it clear that the neutrality act must be applied only when there is danger of the United States becoming in- volved in an international conflict. This exigency apparently does not exist in the present situation. Would Embarrass Japan. If the President were to proclaim that a state of war existed between China and Japan the export of arms and ammunitions to both belligerents would immediately be stopped. While Japan would not suffer from such | an embargo, the Chinese would be | placed in serious difficulties, since most of their war planes and tanks are purchased in this country. If| the President were to go a step further | and place an embargo on certain ma- terials, such as scrap iron or cotton, not only the Japanese, but also the American exporters, would suffer con- siderably. Hence, since an embargo would be detrimental to all parties concerned without in fact preventing the Jap- anese from executing their plans, there is no reason for applying the neu- trality law against the belligerents. Would Waste Gesture. International law upholds this de- cision of the administration. While in the Esthonian-Italian conflict two sovereign nations were fighting against each other, for the time beirg at least, the Japanese are not fighting the established Nanking government, but the Chinese troops and generals in Northern China. So long as the Nanking government does not declare WAr on Japan or the forces of that government are not engaged against those ef the Japanese government, there is, from the point of view of international law, no actual state of War between the two countries. But the administration seems to have decided to refrain from adopting an active attitude, even if such a situation were to occur. To make a strong move would be to look for trouble without a hope of averting trouble for ourselves or the Chinese. The administration, seriously con- cerned with what may happen in the course of the next few weeks on the other side of the Atlantic, does not want to use the power of the neutrality act as an empty gesture. It would bring discredit on this instrument of peace and international co-operation without doing any good. And Mr. Roosevelt does not believe in making empty gestures in the field of inter- national affairs. (Copyright, 1937.) Germany Sends China Fast Torpedo Boats SHANGHAI (#)—German-built speedboats equipped with two torpedo tubes and capable of a speed of 45 miles an hour are the latest acquisi- tions of the Chinese government. Two of the craft have been delivered here and it is understood eight more are to follow. It is reported that the deadly craft are to be stationed in the Yangtze River at Chinkiang, not far from the Pacific Ocean. A dozen similar craft, built in Britain, are reputed to have 4o save his face. He has to move troops #.arrived up the river. | has amended WASHIN o (8] ON v 105 0y SUNDAY MORNING , AUGUST 8, 1937. The Pay Bill Guinea Pig Effect Problematical, but Measure May Be Perfected in Practice for Real Service. BY JOHN H. CLINE HOULD Congress fins wage and hour legislation at this session, there every | reason to believe that the prin- | pal function of the bill will be to serve as a guinea pig for the New Deal's long-awaited experiment in| this field of social reform. | Certainly. it will fall far short of | relieving the distress of that “one- | third of our population” which, ac- | cording to President Roosevelt, is | “ill-nourished, ill-clad, and ill-housed.” | On the contrary, when the roll is called under the bill in its present | form, the beneficiaries will be con- | spicuous by their absence. | Nobody knows how many workers would. receive higher pay or work | fewer hours under the Senate.-bill. Ap- | proximations are pure guesswork and the experts are in wide disagreement. | The only certainty is that they will | be relatively few in number. As to the other ramifications—the effect on the economic structure, the cost of goods to the consumer and | the legality of the act itself—there | is as much or more confusion. Step Toward Regulation. Most emphatically, it is not a| satisfactory bill. But it may well | be that it is & step, however feeble and uncertain, in the right direction. There can be no quarrel with the | stated objectives of the act, and the | measure now proposed may serve as | a valuable proving ground to test the feasibility of using governmental | power to prescribe minimum wages and maximum hours on an effective scale. As the situation stands today, the Senate has passed a wage and hour bill. The House has accepted this bill as a substitute for its own, but the measure to such an extent there is doubt whether it will now be accepted by the Senate. Both branches of the Legislature, however, seem to have agreed on the provision authorizing the fixing of | minimum wages not to exceed 40 cents an hour and a maximum work week of not less than 40 hours in | certain occupations. Before the bill was drafted. a joint House and Senate committee held exhaustive hearings and received the benefit of the testimony of many experts in the wage and hour field. One of the best known of these ex- perts was Isador Lubin, commissioner | of labor statistics of the Department of Labor. Saw Two Main Reasons. Heartily in favor of the bill despite its apparent shortcomings, Lubin told | the committee: “In going over this legislation I am convinced that something of this sort is essential for two specific rea- sons; first, to permit and protect the functioning of the competitive system as we know it in this country, and, secondly, to make possible a standard of living for the American workers which will meet the requirements of decent citizenship.” Minimum wages and maximum hours, he continued, are expressions of the maxim that the welfare and profits of no private business shall interfere with the welfare of the Nation as a whole. “They aim,” he added, “at eliminating from our eco- nomic order those who seek economic success at the expense of the health and decent living of other human beings.” If the competitive system is to be preserved and labor still paid a decent living wage, Lubin added, it is neces- sary to protect the better type of employer from the chiselers in his particular industry. Labor Pays the Toll. “In the race for economic suprem- acy,” he said, “we have assumed that the victory would go to the most efficient producer. Now we know only too well that it is not necessarily those who produce most efficiently or those who render the greatest service to society that secure the lead in the race for economic returns. All too frequently the honors—profits —=0 to those who can take the greatest advantage of their fellow men. By cutting wages, compelling labor to work inhumanly long hours, employ- ing children, many a producer has not only weathered economic storms but has actually profited from them. And he has usually done so at the expense of his competitor who has refused to stoop to similar tactics. In too many instances the ability to sweat one’s labor has ited enact | corsets, men's Some of the industries which would be chiefly affected wage-minima and by the new tablished in the wage-hour bill. silk and rayon manufacture, confectionery and fertilizer, efficiency as the determinant of busi- tanding feature of rules of the industrial game. Employ- ers with a social conscience are assured they will no longer be compelled to conform to the standards of competi- tors with blunted social sensibilities This is not to say that the proposed legislation will curtail competitive action; it only det. in which the, competition will take lace. in which the ideals of the bet than of the worst employers vail. * ® * It aims to establish by law rather a plane of competition far above that | which could be maintained in the ab- | sence of Government edict.” Doubtful About Results. Despite this enthusiasm for the pur- poses of the legislation, however, Lubin was less optimistic when he got down to a discussion of the tangible results at may be expected from the bill. Estimating that the number of workers who would be directly effected by the bill would not be in excess of 2,000,000, he said: “The industries that will be affected to any large extent are relatively few in number. You have industry, cotton goods, silk and rayon, urnishings, shirts and collars, confectionery, cigars and cig- arettes, cottonseed, fertilizers and one or two others. Those would be the industries where the big proportion of the workers would be affected. In firms here and there.” The average hourly wages paid in these industries as of February, 1937, were: Sawmills, 444 cents; cotton goods, 39; silk and rayon, 42.3; corsets, 43.9; men’s furnishings, 32.9; shirts and col- lars, 37.3; confectionery, 42.9; cigars and eigarettes, 43.4; cotton seed, 22.7, and fertilizers, 35.6. Cottonseed processors, the lowest paid of the group, have since been ex- empted from the bill's provisions. Overtime or Extra Men. Questioned by Senator La Follette, Lubin refused to hazard a guess as to the number of workers who would be affected directly by the maximum hours provision, explaining this would depend on whether the Labor Stand- ards Board permitted overtime with ray and a half as the bill provides. Should this be the case, he said, some employers, particularly in the skilled lines, might prefer to work their men overtime at the higher pay rate, while others would engage additional help at the standard rate. Likewise, Leon Henderson, consult- ing economist for the Works Progress Administration, praised the stated aims of the bill, but was only slightly more hopeful as to the tangible bene- fits that can be expected. “Firm standards as to minimum ‘wages and maximum hours are of high desirability.now.” he told the commit- tee. “They will be almost indispensable in efforts to maintain economic bal- ance if this country should suffer a re- lapse in business activity and compe- tition for lessened markets should then, as it did in 1929, seek focus on the depressing of wages. “If the effective demand for goods and services is to be fortified and sus- tained, it is necessary not only that the lowest paid be afforded additional buying strength, but that gains so dearly won since 1932 be kept in force. The time to consolidate those sub- stantial gains is now, so that what- ever adjustments are required in the structure of production can be made under the favorable circumstances of strong business activity.” Sees 3,000,000 Affected. Henderson estimated that something under 3,000,000 workers would be af- fected by the wage provisions—an esti- mate roughly 33%5 peér cent higher than Lubin’s. In arriving at this figure, he submitted some interesting statistics to the committee. On July 1, 1936, he said, the popula- tion of the country was estimated at 128,429,000, and in March, 1937, the National Industrial Conference Board estimated the labor force for all enter- prise, public and private, was 52,- 880,000, agricultural employment rep- resenting about 10,800,000 of this. ‘This would leave approximately 42,- 000,000 potential workers in non-agri- cultural pursuits. However, {se Buresu the | proposed legislation is that it sets the | rmines the manner | It seeks to create a situation | shall pre- | the sawmill | | the following picture of industrial other industries, it would be scattered | | Mining working-hour standards es- Others would include sawmills, of Labor Statistics, also in March, 1937, released figures showing 34.- | 100,000 persons employed in non-agri- cultural pursuits. From these figures, Henderson said, any one is free t> do his own “guess- timating,” and conclude that unem- ployment in the United States is about 7,900.000 In reaching his estimate that 3,000.- 000 persons would be affected by the wage provisions of the bill, Hender- | son gave the [ollowing breakdown of the 34.100.000 non-agricultural em- | ployment figure: (Agriculture workers | are exempted from the provisions of | the act.) Industry . Distribution and service_ State, local, Federal_ _._ Proprietors and self-em- ployed - 4,200,000 14,700,000 13.500.000 1,700,000 34,100,000 Figure Cut to 13,307,000. The wage and hour bill, generally speaking. would exclude from the ef- fect of its operation employes in dis- tribution and service, State, local and | Federal workers and proprietors and | self-employed persons, a total of 19.-| 400.000, leaving a total of 14.700,000 industrial workers to be considered. From this figure, Henderson said he would substract 1,384,000 persons | employed on construction jobs, intra- | state workers who would not come within the scope of the act. This leaves workers: Manufacturing industries___ 9,644,000 781,000 | 1,974,000 | 908,000 Transportation Public utilities - 13,307,000 The 13,307,000 figure includes many | who are now being paid more than 40 cents an hour, and many casual labor- ers and those engaged in local and | other enterprises exempt from the act, leaving, in his judgment, fewer than 3.000,000 whose wages would be in- creased by the 40-cent-an-hour provis- fon. Venturing into a speculative field at which Lubin balked, Henderson esti- mated that at least 6,000,000 of the 13,307,000 are now working more than 40 hours a week and would come with- in the maximum hours provision. In advancing this figure, Henderson stated: “In this estimate I am on firmer ground because of some extraordinary work done recently by Witt Bowden of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and published in the January, 1937, issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The Bowden study analyzed the departure from N. R. A. code standards by 16 principal industries, covering 2,200,000 employes, or, roughly, about 25 per cent of all manufacturing employment. Briefly, the study shows that after the nullification of the N. I. R. A, all 16 industries lengthened the work week of employes instead of adding new em- ployes taken from the ranks of the unemployed. Hours Stepped Up. “In the steel industry, for example, only a few employes were exceeding code hours in May, 1935, when the Schechter decision (invalidating N. R. A.) was handed down. By May, 1936, more than two-thirds of the employes were working longer than code hours. Brick-tile and terra-cotta establish- ments, for example, had 85 per cent of their employes working in excess of code hours by May, 1936. Nearly 1,- 125,000 employes in these 16 indus- tries were exceeding code hours— which excess hours could have given jobs to 125,000 new men, according to the estimate. My own estimate, based on N. R. A. experience, suggests that manufacturing industries alone in the year following the demise of N. R. A. would have added 650,000 more than actually did find jobs in the period. “Most startling and significant among the rich findings of this study is the showing that those plants which cut wages most and increased hours most were those which gained the greatest increase in volume. The wage reductions presumably gave a cost ad- vantage, which in competition was re- i) &/ /57 W o, R e o, who would be affected by the bill, but the opinions of Lubin and Henderson were based on more comprehensive statistics. Their testimony shows con- clusively that the bill will be very limit- ed in its scope, but it should be re- membered that the committee mem- | bers who drafted the bill did not intend it to be otherwise. As was said in their report: “The committee realizes that unde- sirable labor conditions of long stand- ing shown by evidence to exist in our country cannot be blotted out over- night, and that geographical and in- dustrial diversities in a nation as large and as heterogeneous as ours cannot be ignored. suggests the wisdom of legislative approach to the piogres- sive realization of these social and economic objectives.” Some Fear the Worst. As might be expected, testimony as to the probable effect of the adminis- tration of the law on the economic structure is highly speculative and in sharp disagreement. Those who are for the bill can see no economic harm, and those who are against it fear the worst. Lubin, for example, told the com- mittee he did not think there should be anything in the bill to protect the “little fellow” against advances that might be made by larger firms to offset the increased labor cost After it had been brought out that a machine is being developed in the coal mining industry that may do the work of 100 men, Senator Ellender of Louisiana, asked: “What about the man in a like busi- ness who is not able to buy that ma- chine and who has to employ labor, and who cannot, of course, undersell the fellow ‘who is able to buy the ma- chine? What are you going to do about him?” “That is part of your competitive system,” Lubin replied. “That f{s why we permit the competitive system to exist. If a man, through efficiency, whether that means the use of men or anything else, can produce a better product, or the same product at a cheaper price, we assume the busi- ness to going to go to him. Unless you are willing to acknowledge that fact you must admit you are against the competitive system.” Price Effect Discounted. Lubin also contended higher wages and shorter hours, in theory at least, do not necessarily mean higher costs to the consumer. “I think it is im- possible to say that a minimum wage will increase prices to the American consumer in all cases. After all, there is not an industry in this coun- try that will be affected by the mini- mum wage that does not already have a large number of plants that are in business selling goods at a profit and paying a wage rate equal to or higher than the minimum. In other words, their costs are not going up because they are not going to be affected by this law. Costs of the fellow down below will. The question is what will the firms that are paying wages above the minimum you are to set going to do? They have two alternatives. Keep their prices where they are be- cause their costs have not gone up, and get more of the business from the other fellows, or raise their prices be- cause the other fellow wants to raise his prices. “I think that is a problem that should not concern the labor stand- ards bill. That is a problem of the competitive system.” Opposing these views was the tesi- mony of Noel Sargent, secretary and economist of the National Association of Manufacturers, who said, however, that he favored most of the basic ob- Jjectives of the bill. Declaring “no one can whisk away the inseparable connection between costs, output and prices,” he added: “To increase costs before there is ch&ued demand is to put the cart befOre the horse, and run the risk of making matters worse instead of better. B Would Spur Volume. “Increased living standards for the country as a whole can only result from an increased volume of work; they will not be increased by simply dividing up the existing volume of the work. We need national policies that will increase the total volume of work done instead of trying to maintain the volume of work at exist- Practical statesmanship | A cautious | technological | Part Two Travel — Resorts ROOSEVELT IS WATCHED FOR REPRISAL SIGNS Court BY MARK SULLIVA) | NE of Mr. Roosevelt's favorite | figures of speech is about the | forest and the trees. Often, | in answer to questions asked | at his press conferences, questions which he thinks go too much into de- tail, he replies in effect, “Now you're | teeing the trees, you must look at the forest.” And when he goes on vaca- tions he says that he wants to be able to look at the forest from a distance; that while in Washington he is too close to the situation and tends to lock too much at the separate trees. Mr. Roosevelt rather overdoes this | figure of speech. Every man, when he is tired, tends to harp on his own familiar phrases and mannerisms. The forest and the trees are becoming, | with Mr. Roosevelt, a tired man's refuge, a defense he uses to save him- self from pressure to think things out. Mr. Roosevelt is overusing another of his phrases, too—the one about “a | nation one-third ill-housed, ill-fed, | ill-clad.” That phrase, as Mr. Roose- | velt uses it, is partly bunk. It is a good phrase with which to paint an oratorical picture, to evoke a senti- mental atmosphere. But it doesn't stand analysis. Does any one believe | that one person out of every three in the United States is “ill-dressed”? | Ill-dressed in the sense of dressed in | bad taste, true enough. But not in the sense Mr. Roosevit means. When has | any reader of this article seen one per- | | son who was ill-dressed in the sense of not having enough clothes? About ‘the only place where you can see a person without enough clothes on is in | a burlesque theater—and so rare is the sight that you have to pay an ad- | mission fee to see a strip-tease artiste. Perhaps One-Twentieth, There are needy persons in the | country, too many of them. But they | | are not a third of the population, as ‘MrA Roosevelt says. They are not a {fifth nor a tenth. It is doubtful if | they are a twentieth. | As for “ill-fed.” in the sense that food is badly chosen. one would say | that not only one-third but nine- | tenths are ill-fed. A man who takes punctilious care about the precise mixture of gas he feeds to the car- buretor of his automobile will dumpi into his stomach mixtures that would | stall the strongest engine ever made. | But as for ill-fed in the sense of actu- | ally not being able to get enough to | eat, how lately have you seen a starv- ing person? | There is a considerable number of | our people whose acecss to a sufficient, regular and assured supply of food is | too precarious. To a large part of the population, regularity of food supply is dependent on regularity of employ- | ment. That much employment is sub- | ject to interruption, that perhaps a | twentieth of the working population | does not now have access to private | employment is a fact. But Mr. Roose- | velt's implication that one-third are permanently ill-fed is a rabble-rouser's exaggeration; it does not help toward remedy. What Happens Now? Adopting Mr. Roosevelt's overworked | figure of speech, let us, ignoring the trees, look at the forest. Let us see as j a whole just what has happened, what are the consequences of the fiasco in which Mr. Roosevelt's court measure ended. Here we have the Democratic party in the Senate divided almost exactly in two. What is the conse- quence? What happens now? To that question, a large element in the answer is, how does Mr. Roose- velt feel about the humiliation ad- ministered to him? Will he swallow it with a smile? Or will he resent it and try to get revenge? If revenge is his course, what form will his attempted revenge take? If he has grandiose am- bition in his head, what will he do to achieve it, after suffering this check? Before the court measure was de- feated, up to the last minute, Mr. lime confidence that his court meas- ure would pass. If any one wants to think that Mr. Roosevelt regards him- self as & superman he would find some justification in Mr. Roosevelt's atti- tude at that time. That the court was incredible to him. He was annoyed at the delay and the setbacks—but he did not think of it as more than delay. “Purge” Thoughts Arise. At that time, the latter part of June, publicists and propagandists who re- flect the White House—and partly in- spire the White House—were saying that the old leaders of the Democratic party in Congress must be thrown out. minology which some New Dealers practice, a “purge.” Senator Robinson, then still living and Democratic leader of the Senate, should be replaced. Gen. Hugh Johnson, who knows well what goes on among the New Dealers, heard —and flew into hot indignation be- cause of what he heard—that Senator Robinson's prestige was to be reduced, preparatory to getting rid of him as Senate leader and replacing him with a New Dealer: On June 27 an accurate reporter of the New York Times, Mr. Turner Catledge, reported that, “there are those among his (President Roose- velt's) advisers who insist that he should . . . separate the sheep from the goats. Their proposal is that, instead of throwing overboard the controversial items in his legislative program as recommended by his congressional helmsmen, he jettison the helmsmen themselves.” That was the atmosphere the lat- ter part of June. Mr. Roosevelt con- tinued completely confident that his court measure would pass. When setbacks became obvious he blamed them on his leaders in Congress; never did he think they indicated vice in his court measure or betokened its defeat. As late as 10 hours before Leader Robinson of the Senate died, and thereby precipitated climax, Mr. Roosevelt was still supremely confi- dent, still thought his leaders in Con- gress were not aggressive enough, and that that was the only trouble. When, on July 13, Chairman Hatton W. Sumners of the House Judiciary Com- mittee made a speech in which he ing shrunken levels. < “If this bill worked as is apparently (Boe PAY Page D- practically declared the House would not accept the court measure even if the Senate did—a few hours after Mr. Sumners spoke Mr. Roosevelt sald | 1apse Roosevelt's attitude was one of sub-! measure should be actually defeated | Key to Situation of Independent Demo- crats Lies in Sportsmanship of Defeat. that his leaders fn Congwess were not resolute enough, that he would take hold of the situation himself and drive his court measure through i Reaction Is Key to Future. > When a man is serenely confident, and when, after feeling that way, he suffers utter disaster, how does he react? How does the average man react? And how does Mr. Roosevelt, who is not an average man, react? If you know the answer, you have the key to important future events Some thirty-six hours after Mr, Roosevelt suffered his court bill cae tastrophe he went down the Poe tomac River for a week end of rest, As companions he had three La Fol lettes: Senator Robert and his wifa and the Senator’s brother, Gov. Philip La Follette of Wisconsin. One should not stretch the significance of the La Folettes' presence too far. Possibly the engagement to take them had been made before the court bill's cole But assuming there was signie ficance in the presence of the La Pble lettes, it may have meant that Mr, Roosevelt was serving notice on the independent Democrats who had just defeated him Mr. Roosevelt is a subtle person? he knows just how to do this sort of thing, how to create an effect by a gesture. By his gesture Mr. Rooses velt said to the independent Demoe crats, in effect: “I favor the radicals and extreme liberals, and they favor me; I propose to go along with them ' That Mr.” Roosevelt's mood was ona of defiance of the independent Demo- crats there is much evidence: indeed, | the whole of the evidence is that wa Mr. Roosevalt i; a licking ea Then Gov. Murphy. A week later Mr. Roosevel on a Potomac trip, took with him Gov. Murphy of Michigan. who did not give the force of the State to tha sheriff who asked for it to evict site down kers. Mr. Roosevelt's choica of Gov. Murphy as his guest left the Democrats in Congress in no doubt, They knew well that Mr. Roosevelf wished to notify them that he would not willingly let them check him, that he was going the leftward way. One phase of Mr. Roosevelt's mood not a man who takes | will express itself in the elections to Congress next year and the primaries preced. them. Here are some 36 or 37 Democrats—almost exactly half the Democrats in the Senate defied Mr. Roosev in a way that he obviously resented, A number of these indcpendent Democrats will come up for renomi- nation and re-election next year. They include Senators Champ Clark of Missours, Pat McCarran of Ne= braska, Tydings of Maryland, Van Nuys of Indiana, all of whom op= posed the President’s court measure, What will Mr. Roosevelt do about these Senators? Will he make war on them? Will he use the influencs of his personality and of the Federal beneficiaries of relief and of National Chairman Farley and Mr. Farley's machine to prevent these Senators from being renominated? Mr. Farley in a speech last Wednes- day said there would be no reprisals, all is to be harmony. But Mr. Farley was speaking for himself. The real answer lies with President Roosevelt, ¢ will do what Mr. Roose= velt tells him. The real question is, will the President continue to hold resentment against the anti-court bijl Senators. Probably he will. Certainly. the practically universal feeling is that Mr. Roosevelt resents what the inde= pendent Democrats did. and that in his resentment he will go farther and farther in the direction of the La Follettes and the exponents of radi~ calism or extreme liberalism. e Cannot Halter Roosevelt. 9 1f the independent Democrats wha defeated his court measure supposed that they were going to put a halter on Mr. Roosevelt and make him con- form to their ideas, it has not turned out that way. If they thought they Wwere going to establish a kind of ree gency over him and make him accept their ideas instead of them accepting his ideas, in that case, too, the inde=~ pendent Democrats must be dis- appointed. Or if they thought they were going to have a genuine treaty of peace with him, that he and they were going to stand together in the interest of the united Democratia | party. they were mistaken in that, too. Mr. Roosevelt will continue to go to the left, perhaps farther to the left, There must be, in the European ter.] than he would have gone had he not suffered defeat of his court measure. He will go to the left, thinking he can carry the Democratic voters of the country with him. If he finds that he cannot; if it turns out in next year's congressional primaries and elections that it is the independ- ent Democrats who control the party, and not Mr. Roosevelt—in that event what will Mr. Roosevelt do? That is what the independent Democrats wish they knew, (Copyright, 1937.) Balloon to Point Out Niagara Falls Bridge NIAGARA FALLS, N. Y, August T (#)—8Bo many tourists have trouble finding the Whirlpool Rapids Bridge here that a captive balloon will be sent up to indicate its location. H. G. Dickinson, superintendent of the half-century-old span, said the balloon would be a miniature Zeppelin, 25 feet long. The name of the bridge will be painted on it. Thousands of tourists know the bridge as the “Lower Arch Bridge.” Its name has been changed recently. —_— Chinese Leaders Ask Journalism Schools NANKING, China (#).—Journalism departmegts will become a part of all the universities and colleges in China, if leaders of the Kuomintang party have their way. They have asked the Ministry of Education to establish the departe ments, so that China may have trained, competent newipaper mea.