Evening Star Newspaper, October 8, 1936, Page 11

Poll Indicates Landon Lead In Ohio Unusual Vote Test Shows Class Divi- sion Race. KY DAVID LAWRENCE. OLUMBUS, October 8—There's a temptation to predict that as Ohio goes, so goes the Nation this year. I do mnot mean in electoral votes or in popular vote necessarily, but in the division of the classes of voters. I had an opportunity here to make & study first hand of what I believe s the most scientific poll or straw vote being conducted by any one in the present campaign. It is § o State-wide vote 3 being taken by j the Coiumbus Dispatch, which has been taking polls in Ohio for many years with an amazing rec- ord of accuracy. The poll hap- pens to be the personal hobby of Harry P. Wolfe, publisher of the Columbus Dis- patch, who has himself handled so many polls in past campaigns that he can tell you off- hand exactly how each county, each city. each town, each section of the State voled in various elections, what the change in the returns this year indicates from those same localities and what the whole thing averages up to as more and more ballots come in. But, first, as to method. Ballots are handled both by mail and by personal canvass, but. unlike the Gallup poll, for example, ‘the can- David Lawrenee THE _EVENING STAR _NVASHINGTON, D. C., THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 1936. News Behind the News Roosevelt Inner Circles Losing Apprehensions Over Election. BY PAUL MALLON. HE inner attitude of the crowd around President Roosevelt has changed perceptibly within the last week. Old apprehensions ’ about the election are fading. They may be fooling themselves, but they are going to be the most surprised politicos in the United States if the Literary Digest poll is right. These boys are too old to beileve in speeches Their trust wisely rests in such practical matters as organization. ‘What makes them feel good right nmow is the accumulation of such carefully planned organization maneuvers as these: The Minnesota deal, forming an alliance with the Farmer- Laborites; the Couzens conversion in Michigan; split of Republican electors in Delaware; the personal drafting and nomination of Gov. Lehman in New York; the John L. Lewis labor alliance and its pos= sible effects in West Virginia, 1llinois and Pennsylvania; the La Fol- lette alliance in Wisconsin; the ditching of Gov. Davey in Ohio. These are not all, but they are enough to explain why the White House coterie now feels better. It there is anything else they can do they have not discovered it yet. o -, M Treasury Secretary Morgenthau FSHPS exuded an icy stare when the news (BT DAL, came that Mister Mussolini had devaluated. There was no cheer= ing, no comment. It always is advisable not to make up your mind about events in Ttaly until you receive the text of offivial statements, and some- times it is not even possible then to conclude what has happened. There is an additional reason why officials here first considered any new money monkeyshines on the part of Mussolini or Hitler as irrelevant, if not immaterial. Mussolini has a greater variety of assorted lire than the average candy shop has different kinds of chocolates. They were not permitted to be exported or used freely in international exchange. Hitler has even a stronger ban on exportation of marks or gold, The truth iy these two countries dare mot let their money go freely up against the moneys of the world. Their gold weakness per- mits them to adjust their currencies to the dollar only artificially and theoretically. Consequently, what they do does not make much diflerence to any one except themselves. Barnstormers with Gov. Landon continue to complain about personal friction within the top organization. What one eminent Landon authority said about it weeks ago still holds true, namely: “There are 20,000 ants on the log and each one thinks he is guiding the log.” There are lots of little stories—one adviser pocketed some speech recommendations of other advisers and kept them from the candidate, the superior manner of one foremost adviser has discouraged his helpers, etc. * % ¥ x vassers do not engage in any con- versation or ask any questions, but #imply hand the citizen a blank ballot and an envelope in which to seal it -in secrecy while the canvasser waits for the marking There are four main divisions. One = to send canvassers to factories and plants in indusirial centers and to take a vote as men come in or g0 out from their work. A second task i to take what is called a “street Vote” in the same cities and towns, and the third is to send canvassers into office buildings in the downtown or business sections and to stores and shops. Mailed to Farmers. The fourth division of the work i= to mail ballots to rural voters in the agricu'tural counties in huge quantities to get a good cross-section of Democrats as well as Republican counties. Thus the farmers and their wives | “are reached by mail and the city popu- lation by careful canvass of factories, | and | business sections, the streets—men downtown people on women, The Columbus Dispatch voll is young yet. Only 25,000 ballots have As vet been received, but when com- pleted it will include about 100.000 When it. is considered that 2.500,000 persons voted in. the last election, a sample amounting to between 4 and 5 per cent is, quantitatively speaking, very satisfaciory. Now, as to rate of returns, the mailed ballots are bringing in an- awers to the amount of 18 per cent, which is also adequate for sample purposes. To offset the disadvan- tage with respect to labor and factory workers who wouldn't be reached by mail and to insure a quantitative test, the personal canvass reaches large cross sections in cities and fowns in different parts of the State. In other words, as good a sample as is hu- manly possible on a fairly large scale 4% being canvassed by the Columbus Dispatch poll. Now, what does the poll show thus far or indicate for the future in Ohio? The total votes published to date in- elude mostly cities, and the resilts and of the mail ballot to rural counties are just being tabulated. ‘What the poll experts try to do is fo find the average plurality per- eentage in counties that were Demo- eratic or Republican last time and to note Cities for Roosevelt. These eight large counties comprise mbout 49 per cent of the total vote. Based on percentages of the Colum- | bus Dispatch poll, these counties will probably show before the poll is com- pleted a plurality for President Roose- velt of between 8 and 10 per cent. Now. the rural counties, comprising mbout 38 per cent of the total vote, disclose in the poll a plurality for Gov. Landon of about 18 per cent. The Republican nominee has carried a1l but one of the nine rural counties thus far polled and the exception is | & normally Democratic area where the vote this year in the poll appears about even, showing a large defection of Democratic farmers to Landon. Probably about 80.000 farmers will be polled by mail between now and the end of the month, so the results are not yet sufficiently far along to reach & final conclusion. But, assuming that the trend in the country is 16 per cent plurality for Landon and the Roosevelt margin in the populous counties is between 8 and 10 per cent, the ultimate result would appear to be so0 close that, if Gov. Landon car- ries the State by 50.000 he will be Jucky, and it does seem as if the fig- ures point to a better opportunity for Gov. Landon to capture the electoral vote of the State than has President “Roosevelt. The poll shows a large Lemke- Coughlin strength in the cities. It also shows men and women voting about the same in the mail ballot. It likewise shows that the business and professional groups are very strongly Republican this year, while the labor and factory workers are almost fiercely for Roosevelt. ‘Workers Favor Roosevelt. Usually, labor in Ohio averages about one and one-half Democratic to one Republica. This year the voting in the factories and plants shows about four to one for Roosevelt. Canvasses among rallroad and steel workers reveal this trend very de- cidedly. The canvassers report that the workers sigh their ballots openly on many occasions, whereas, in other years, they would be timid about it. - In other words, they are voting very -.atrongly along the very lines of class cleavage which Mr. Roosevelt has at- tempted so assiduously to cultivate. In the office buildings and among business men, the situation is not as clear as might be thought. The ex- ecutive and business men with re- sponsibilities, who see the big tax load coming to take away the profi they are earning and to send prices Jup with the possibility of public re- &istance to such increases, are plainly fa} These situations are alwavs prevalent on the inside of large cam- paign organizations. They are present within the Roosevelt inner circle, where the President’s own secretariat was anything but one happy family from the beginning. The effect on White House efficiency has not been notichable, and the effect on the Landon organization is probably being overestimated * % ¥ % The Democrats seem to be better at figures than the Republicans. Not only have they been able to calculate the debt increase at $8.- 000,000,000 instead of $14,000,000,- 000, as carried on the Treasury statement. but they can prove from the Digest poll that Mr. Roosevelt will win, Here is the way one of the work- ers around headquarters did it rather logically with the digest re- sults of a recent week: Landon's straw total, 438.601. Total Hoover vote from '32 polled so far, 362,955, Landon’s straw gain, 75,646, Roosevelt's straw total, 282.524 Total Roosevelt "32 straw vote polled so far, 280,675. Roosevelt's straw loss, 8,151. nions of the writers on this page are their own, not Such opinions are presented in readet. although such opinions may be cogptradictory among themselvs and directly opposed to The Star's. he Minnesota Deal Party Sjifts There Raise the Question: “For the Good of What Party?” BY MRK SULLIVAN. N MINNBOTA the Democratic party es a. deal with the Farmer-! party. It is de- scribed byMr. G. Gould Lincoln, careful politigl writer of The Star, who is in nesta. The Demo- cratic party withiraws its candi- candidates f | r those offices [in Minnesota is is done, Mr. lr coln says, “in Farley, “will victory for both the President andjhe Parmer-Laborites. by Mr. Roosevelt— retiring Democratic candidate forBenator, “I am deeply | grateful that ju were willing to sacri- | fice your pepnal ambitions on m: behalf and fojthe good of the party. “Por the of the party.” But just what pay? Just how shall we define the IMmocratic party that is/ served by abrbing, or being locally absorbed by, he Farmer-Labor party. | What precise are the principles of Democratic Fty that is served by try- ing to elect {Farmer-Laborite to the United Statq Senate? ‘ This Minjsota maneuver is dis-| cussed almogwholly in terms of effect | on the elecyn returns in November. | Most of us fink as if politics were a game, and ¢ look no farther than the box acop Practically all the com- | ment asks grely whether Mr. Roose- | velt is morgikely to win Minnesota’s | 11 electoralotes; whether some Min- | nesota Derjcrats who feel outraged by the ded will now vote for Gov. Landon. Ifhe short-time view, 1ook- ing merelypward November 3, these | questions ® to the front. Lax:Time Question. But fronthe point of view of the deep tidesiow running in American | politics, thee is & long-time question. | he telegraphs is going on-in America, one of the most considerable is the falling away in intellectual integrity by a large number of persons who in the past have held intellectual integrity high. Hundreds of Democratic leaders, prac- tically all in the higher ranks, and hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters likewise in the higher ranks, see what is happening. They see a party which in actuality is utterly new in America, using the name “Democratic” as a camouflage— they see it acting as the Farmer-Labor party in Minnesota; they saw it two years ago acting as Mr. Upton Sin- clair's Socialist “Epic” party in Cali- fornia. They see Mr. Roosevelt sup- ported by Communists and Socialists, on the theory that he will ocarry the country nearer to their objective, They see, as Mr. Roosevelt’s principal ad- viser and inspirer of the largest num- ber ot New Deal policies, Prof. Tug- well, who in his own phrase wishes to “make America over” into collectivism. South Sees More. ‘These things are seen by all Demo- crats. Southern Democrats see yet more. They see the principle of States’ rights, traditionally dear to Southern Democrats, openly attacked by Mr, Roosevelt. They see the Constitution and the Supreme Court, bulwark of | States’ rights and of individual lib-| erties, deviously demeaned by Mr.! Roosevelt. They saw the “two-thirds” [ rule, which long protected the South by giving it a veto power over Demo- cratic presidential nominations, re- pealed by the recent Democratic na- tional convention. They see the Demo- | cratic party as an aggressive Negro suffrage party in the South. They see the ablest and most respected South- ern exponents of Democratic thought, such as Senators Glass and Byrd of Virginia, outrgaed by the New Deal. And they see these leaders intimidated into giving at least tacit support to Mr. Roosevelt, intimidated by the very fact that other Soythern Democratft leaders and Democratic voters are biind to what Glass and Byrd see plainly. Leaders, Too, See Damage. A considerable number of Demo- cratic leaders, seeing what has been, done to the Democratic party, have announced that they oppose continua- tion of the New Deal in power. A | considerable number of Democratic voters will vote against it in Novem- The number may be larger Just what | the nature, the principles | ber. ‘We, the People Campaign May Invoke Old-Time *“Mail Order” Instructions on Voting. BY JAY FRANKLIN, Wflml Ronsevelt is smilingly extracting his innumerable white rab- ¥ bits from the presidential hat, the G. O. P, elephant seems to be busy blowing political “red herrings” from its trunk. Pirst came the “Communist issue”—announced by Hearst and indorsed by Hamilton—which F. D. R. disposed of in his speech at Syracuse. Next came $1e Al Smith walk-out. Old loyaities and the memory of the days when Al was 4 great liberal leader will prevent many Democrats from speaking their minds on his Carnegie Hall footnote to his Liberty League speech of last January. The nert nmumber on the political Ash market is an old, old trick of horse-and- 3 buggy campaigning. Shortly before election day, the big corporations, the insurance companies and groups of such interests burden Mr, Farley's postmasters with 40,000.000 letters to stockholders, policy owners and—where they think they can get away with it—industrial employes. ‘These letters will warn “the real owners of American industry” that Roosevelt's re-election will ruin business. The cost of this gigantic mail- order campaign—8$1,500,000—will, of course, not be entered as a contribu~ tion to the Republican campaign fund. It will be borne by the stock- holders, policy owners, etc. Their own money will thus be used to share their faith in the value of their own investments. just as their own money was used to bribe them in the ‘“Tremendous Twenties.” /- * %% ‘This sort of campaign was what Mark Hanna organized in 1896 when he fried the fat out of the boobs to beat Bryan. It was used to help put Coolidge over in 1924 and to beat Phil La Pollette for the governorship of Wisconsin in 1032. At a time when the profits, earnings and dividends of business are soaring to pre-depression levels, when the national debt burden is no heavier a charge against corporate incomes and national wealth than it was under Coolidge in 1924, a determined effort will be made to shake the confidence of the American people in their political and business institutions. That is why Col. Knox has been permitted to go roaring that no insurance policy or savings account is safe. The Republican candidate having failed to panic the voters, his underwriters will try to breed a ;leallr-potke& panic on his be- all, kX x All this seems pretty provincial. ‘Where are the really big men who used to run the Republican party, the men to whom it was an article of faith to be “a bull on America™ and never to sell the country #hort? During the twilight of the Wall Street gods, it was made a crime in many States to start a rumor about the solvency of a bank. From both White House and Wall Street, we got the old American confidence talk. “Have faith in America!" ‘we were urged. “The country is fundamentally sound! Prosperity is just around the corner!” % During the dreadful Winter of '32-'33, when hope died and a frozen apathy fell upon the people, the captains of industry and the kings of high finance came crawling to Roosevelt and begged him to restore confidence and conquer fear. He did. That much, at least, is history, and there are few Americans who are not better off today than they were then. To see these self-same men, deliberately and with no other apparent ‘object but to avoid paying their fair share of the costs of general re- covery, now using the enormous powers of their irresponsible economic administration to breed more panic and to undermine the faith of the people in the Government of the United States is glightly nauseating. Such desperate maneuvers go far beyond the legitimate bounds of Democratic politics and do not jibe with patriotism. (Copyright. 1938,) | | never, never his white spats. and objectes of the Farmer-Labor party whicthe Democratic party now | absorbs, o is locally absorbed by? What is t¥ Farmer-Labor platform? ‘What haveeen its principles and ob- | than we can now recognize. One wonders why there is not | wholesale revolution among orthodox Democrats. They have abundant notice of what has been done to the long given intellectual leadership to the Democratic press of the eastern part of the South. The St. Louls | Post-Dispatch has given similar lead- ership in the western part of the Mother Rat Has 18 Babies. BERKELEY, Calif. (#).—The birth of octodecimuplets caused some eve- brow-raising at the Life Science ihe increase or decreuz.’ Hoover straw vote and apply it to to the logic of the deduction. Nouw: if you take the indicated ratio of Landon’s gain over the the 15.816.000 actual votes which Hoover polled in the 1932 election, you will compute the total in- dicated Landon vote at 19,016,000, Doing the same thing with the Roosevelt Joss will give you an indicated total of 22,182,012 votes for him this year. The result is a popular vow lead of 3.165,652 for Roosevelt out of a straw poll which shows him to be losing, 2 to 1, nd no one can object And so on, far, far into the night. (Copyright, 1938) | of administration to insure what they believe will be a prosperous era. There are white-collar workers, on the other | hand, who think they are unaffected by the general outery of lmerlerencer by Government in business and are | voting more or less in miscellaneous fashion just about as the so-called | street vote turns out. The large registration is a signifi- cant factor in itself. The impression prevails among those who know Ohio | voting habits that, whenever there is an unusually large vote, the peoA{ ple have something to protest about | and that they rarely register when | things are going along all right and contentment prevails. | Rural Ohio has been noted for its | dry proclivities. One reason for its | decided trend to Republicanism this | AS LITTLE AS THE NEW Ysal burner in the world. Patented new features bring remarkable oil gan delwlmmmbdo' ESSO MARKETERS OIL HEATING DIYISION STANDARD OIL COMPANY OF NEW JERSEY 261 Cons Tel. 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For generations the three existence?It 15 in that that the deeper | principal avowed Democratic news- | significanc of this Minnesota episode papers in the country were the Balti- | iies. more Sun, the St. Louis Post-Dis- | I ask t] question for information.! patch and the Omaha World-Herald | 1 do not appen to know where the All three have announced that they Farmer-Ioor party belongs, in the cannot support Mr. Roosevelt in this gamut of ocial and political theories campaign. The Baltimore Sun has | which arnow fermenting in America | SOL HERZOG. INC and in thworld. It may be a normal Americararty with ordinary Ameri- | 4 ” can prinples, though I seem to re- | member fhad a strongly radical plat- form a fe vears ago. In any event, T suspect ie Farmer-Labor party is | very diffent from the Democratic party ashe latter is understood by orthodox)emocrats. This Mnesota episode ir another evidencesf what was already made clear athe recent Democratic Na-| tional Ccvention at Philadelphia: and | made cle before that by Mr. Roose- velt, hisctions, his speeches, the in- timates ith whom he has surrounded { himself nd from whom he takes his | policies. And if the party headed by | Mr. Roevelt, the New Deal party— | 1f that the Democratic party. then, | to quotehe salty figure of speech used | | by “Al"imith in his self-justification for oppdng Mr. Roosevelt, “then I am | & Chinnan with a hair-cut, Amor the somber aspects of what | BLLT YO BE WORTHY OF THE MARK It is well known by i st - who know the value gs fool-proof, trouble-free standard ‘equipment. exactly suited to your 5 nace and any pocket- Investigate our remarkable OUPON TODAY= iew Jersey. N.W., Washington, D. 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AKING a turn down around Broad and Wall streets in New York today this writer found hopeful excitement, ar At least incipient excitement, about devaluation by the gold bloc powers, the start of an Angle-Franco-Amers ican trade accord, the world shake~ up in quotas and the general possi- bility of a break in the ice pack, as- suring at least one more economic Spring. One investment house, it was learned, had cabled for the full text of Stanley M. Bruce's speech before the League of Na- tions Assembly ‘The former pre- mier of Australia had urged a bold triple play by the U. 8 A, England and France, and. for certain not at all recondite rea- sons, that s newa. The bankers here may be a jump or two ahead of the reporters. The brilliant and powerful Aus- tralian politician has been a voice for insularity and intensified na- tionalism which has carried through the world. As an economic chau- vinfst, he has fought for the closed empire, closed markets and the closed mind. Cleverly, he has satated and defended the all-sufficiency of a self contained British empire. Within the last six months he has pictured & new world flux of raw ma- terials and fabricated goods and a new and nourishing flow of eredit in the atrophied arteries of commerce He sees this interchange making » new alliance of English-speaking pea- ples and with France. It ix possibly incidental to his thesis that it suz- gests an entente of democratic powe ax it happens that it is they who hav eregit and raw materials, and not the absolutist powers. Stanley M. Bruee, Mr. Bruce, tall, handsome and im- posing, will throw away an idea when it becomes fraved and raveled, but In 1228 a London newspaper scolded him for wearing them, hinting that only vul- gar Americans dressed that way. A horde of Americans, vulgar or other- wise, read the story on the way to the Queen’s garden party. The next day the gardeners were digging snowbanks of white spats out from under the hedges, where the frightened Ameri- cans had hidden them. but Mr. Bruce ‘was at the garden party with his spats. He was born in Melbourne in 1833 and educated at Cambridge. He prace ticed law in London. was twice see verely wounded in the World War, returned to Australia and became ita youngest premier at 41 (Copyrizht, 1978) By popular demand from hundreds of our customers! ONE WEEK ONLY SALE! OVERCOATS $33.75 Genuine 1936-37 Winter weight overcoats . . . styled fastidious men ... men and richness of genuine to the mjnute and tailored to Worumbo's rigid specifica- tions, in double breosted and raglan styles . . . oxford grey, navy blue, platinum grey and honey brown. In other words when these are sold it will be impossible to duplicate a single coat at this price . . . just say, CHARGE IT or pay a deposit and we will reserve yqur selection. SOL HERZOG INC _ Corner F Street at 9th