Evening Star Newspaper, September 8, 1935, Page 31

Editorial Page Special Articles Part 2—8 Pages "ARMED CONFLICT IS PRICE OF PEACE FO U. S. Congress Has R MEDDLERS Notified World It Will Not Stand for Interven- tional Experiments. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. HE passage of the neutrality legislation by Congress just before it ‘adjourned has marked a fresh stage in & disouge=y which has been going on ever since the close of the World War. That legislation itself, however, was frankly a compromise and the debate is bound to be reopened when Con- gress comes back. Meantime public opinion still remains profoundly con- lused on the whole subject. The vhelming majority of the Ameri- can people is manifestly determined to keep out of any European struggle | but very little aware of the complex- | ities which surround the question. ‘The recent action represented an effort to deal with two problems at once. Italian purpose and the reper- | cussions this purpose had awakened in many nations—especially in Great | Britain—put the American people on | notice of the imminence of another | war. It was plain, too, that while | Italy was planning a colonial adven- | ture indistinguishable from those of | Great Britain and France in the pre- war era, there was general fear that | the flames might spread to Europe. Before Congress reconvened, there- fore, there was danger that the United States might become involved in an- other European war. Mindful of the fashion in Which | we had become involved in the World | ‘War, public opinion—and Congress in Tesponse to that opinion—demanded | legislation which would block the pathways of involvement. That was the major purpose of the various pro- visions of the Pittman law. But, in | addition, there was hardly less ap- prehension that the Administration | and, in particular, the State Depart- ment, might involve the country in | the various foreign efforts to prevent the impending conflict to such an | extent that we should automatically become belligerents in the war that followed. Japanese Situation Recalled. ropean or African controversy at the risk of becoming involved in war as well. It would, moreover, protect Presidents from the coercive tactics of the organized peace societies. In point of fact, we are entering the last phase of the battle between the internationalists and the isolationists which began with the Peace Com- ference. The issue arises from the conviction of one group that every- body’s business is our business, and that of another group that American security depends upon our minding our own business. The former holds that we must join in all efforts to prevent war because we are bound to be involved in any future conflict. The | latter insists that we shall only get | into other peoples’ wars if, as the | slang phrase has it, we necks out.” In the first and greatest of all the battles, that over the treaty, the vic- tory of the isolationists in the Senate was followed by an impressive endorse- ment at the polls. After the election of 1920, American membership in the League of Nations ceased to be an issue politically. Precisely the same result followed the long debate over Ameri- can membership in the World Court. The sudden explosion of popular hos- tility to this proposal last Winter and the wholly unexpected defeat of the resolution which would have taken us into the cqurt closed that debate, too. “stick our But while the internationalists have | by slow degrees learned that they can- not hope for any success in Congress and that popular opinion always ends by backing Congress in these battles between involvement and isolation, | they have continued to believe that they could use the executive branch to serve their own ends. Thus they exerted great influence upon the Hoover administration in the Man-| churian affair and have tried to do the same thing with the Roosevelt administration in the Ethiopian quar- rel. Fail to Appreciate Change. Popular apprehension, too, was pat- ently well founded. No one had for- gotten that the Hoover administra- tion had almost involved us in a war with Japan in its effort first to prevent | and thereafter to defeat Japanese ag- f gression in Manchuria. Rushing to| the aid of the League, Mr. Stimson | had produced a situation in which the {League powers cleverly stood aside and left America to face the resent- ment of Japan. The result of our in- .tervention was therefore not to pro- tect China, preserve treaties or help the League, but only to become the sole target of natural Japanese wrath. Popular anxiety was further ex- cited by the knowledge of what Nor- man H. Davis had been promising in the name of President Roosevelt at the disarmament conference. At Geneva the Ambassador-at-large had proposedl that the more heavily armed nations should consent to material reduction in the -naval and military establishments. In return, he indi- cated, the Roosevelt administration &tood ready to employ American neu- trality in such fashion as to aid those States which, acting through the League, undertook sanctions against an aggressor. It was plain a few weeks ago that in the United States the great mass jof professional peacemakers, friends fof the League and believers in the +Kellogg pact alike, were eager to ihave the United States do something ‘to prevent the Ethiopian War. They i believed that there was some peace- ;ful way of preventing war and, like | i their British -opposite numbers, saw & solution through the resort to non- military sanctions. Accordingly the administration was under great pres- sure to do something and Congress was well aware that Mr. Hull himself inclined to the belief that some sort of action was possible and desirable. The public and the majority in Congress saw, however, that if Britain | however, so far failed to appreciate | ‘The American peace societies have, the complete change in the problem | cf peace which has followed the dis- closure of Japanese, Italian and Ger- man purposes. They do not yet realize that when great nations have decided upon policies and actions which must | produce hostilities, when they have, in | fact, adopted war as an instrument | of national policy, then there is no longer any question of preventing war | but only the choice between neutrality and belligerency. In order to believe in the efficacy of the alleged peaceful means to prevent war today, you have to believe that Hitler and Mussolini do not mean what they say and that Japan is not in Manchuria. But the fact is that both dictators are in deadly earnest and, in addition, the truth is that Japan is advancing— not withdrawing—in China. Italian soldiers, too, are on the line merely awaiting the order which will launch them upon their campaign. As for the German situation, every well-informed European knows what is coming just as soon as German rearmament | reaches a certain point. And the in- ! evitable may arrive even sooner, if { the Stresa combination against Ger- many breaks up. What the interna- tionalists are therefore doing—actually but not intentionally—is attempting to involve their country in wars which have already become inevitable be- cause those who control other nations | are resolved to wage them. | sented with the choice between de- | fending China and thus making war | upon Japan or getting out of the Japanese way. Japan was resolved to | 8o into China and to fight any one | who set out to stop her. The British | people were confronted with an identi- cal dilemma by Italy in the Ethiopian affair. Both countries will have to face another problem of the same | sort when Germany goes into Austria set out to apply sanctions, to close | again—as she set out to do last the Suez Canal and to declare an embargo, and we associated ourlelves with such an undertaking, when it ;had led to war between Britain and ;Italy we should not be in a position 1to draw back and wash our hands of ; the whole matter. It was all very well #to resort to sanctions provided these {at once were non-military and did not :provoke a fight. But it was clear in Lthe immediate instance that they tmust bring on a battle because Italy +was vesolved to go forward, come :what might. Way Still Open to Meddle. Now in"point of fact the action of Congress did not securely bar the .door against any such involvement. On the contrary it was directed at| regulating and restricting executive action after war had begun and in the effort to accomplish this purpose im- posed restraints of very doubtful wis- dom. In principle, therefore, the way “1s still open for the administration to !meddle in foreign controversies. In practice, however, the action of Con- .gress, the expressions of public opin- {ion which preceded and precipitated +these actions, all have served to reveal {the temper of the country and to sup- :ply a warning which no wise politician scan ignore. + - Unless all signs fail, we are not at ipresent to be involved in the Anglo- ¢Italian dispute over Ethiopis. Even £1f the President should now make some Jgesture it would have little value as a arestraint upon Italy because the action Yof Congress has clearly informed Mus- -solini that, whatever the United States .says, it will not resort to war in order “to coerce the Italian government. And inothing but war could stop Mussolini. ¥Nor are the British likely to run the srisk of having to face Italy single- .handed—the chance we took when we <confronted Japan over the Manchurian ! episode. » All that has happened, therefore, iseems to me to illustrate how much ‘more effective than any legislation is .the expression of opinion by Congress, A round robin signed by a majority \of the Senate, such a document as, in {fact, was uttered during the Peace “Conference and should have warned » _Europe of the repudiation of Wilson *which was coming, would accomplish all that was needed to block any exec- utive attempt to mix in a purely Bu- & o | year, only to surrender to Mussolini’s | mobilization. We were not ready to fight Japan and the British were no more ready to fight Italy; therefore, although we each in turn tried to in- | tervene, we both had to back out | with enormous loss of face and after having run grave risks of war. ‘Wisdom in Principle. Congress, then, seems to me to have acted not wisely in form perhaps, but with extreme wisdom in principle. The laws it has enacted will hardly bear analysis; they will doubtless in due time be amended beyond recogni- tion. But, by contrast, the legislative branch of the Government has put | the world on notice that it will not stand for any interventionist experi- ments. It will not back the President or the Secretary of State in any repe- tition of the Hoover-Stimson per- formance in the Manchurian episode. It has indicated that it accepts the | Mussolini-Chamberlain dictum that | “sanctions mean war” and will have | none of them. For all practical pur- | poses, too, what has been accom- plished could have been done by reso- lution and not by legislation. Personally, I am not very appre- hensive over the likelihood of Ameri- can involvement in the next European war provided we do not, in the period before it arrives, surrender our neu- trality by committing ourselves to one side or the other by means of gestures or actions designed to pre- vent the outbreak of that conflict. But if we join one nation or many in attempting to restrain the aggressive actions of still another, we shall not be in a position to retire to isolation and security when the fight has opened, without convicting ourselves of cowardice in the eyes of the world. Once, moreover, it does become clear to the majority of the American peo- ple who are resolved not to par- ticipate in the next war that there is no peaceful way of preventing it, then, in my judgment, we shall be well out of the danger zone and in a position to act sanely and wisely in defense of our neutrality not only against the assaults of the foreign warmakers. but also against the far more Penetrating attacks of the do- mestic peacemakers. (Copyright. 1035.) 4 The American people were pre- | EDITORIAL SECTION he Sunday Star WASHINGTON, D. C., SUNDAY MORNING, SEPTEMBER 3, 1935, BY J. RUSSELL YO ! Staff Correspondent of The Star. | YDE PARK, N. Y.—President Government: Spending Spree Must End al Agencies. President Roosevelt Moves to Effect Economies by Curtailing Special Travel — Resorts Civic Activities TRADITIONAL DEMOCRATS MAY FORM OWN TICKET Wish Opportunity in 1936 to Cast Vote So as to Retire Roosevelt From Presidency. BY MARK SULLIVAN. HE last few days have brought to the front one of the major | factors in next year's presi- dential campaign. It is the question whether there will be a third | ticket of a particular kind, a third | ticket reflecting traditional Democrats | who are profoundly disaffected by the | Roosevelt administration. | About this proposal there are cer- tain fundamental conditions. This ticket, assuming it comes about, will express and symbolize old school Dem- ocrats, Jeffersonian Democrats, “states’ | rights” Democrats. Democrats of this ;klnd think that Mr. Roosevelt and | the New Deal are going in the direc- | tion of a collectivist form of society to be administered by a centralized | bureaucracy at Washington. | This the old school Democrats deeply deplore and resent. They wish an op- | portunity to cast their votes next year | in such a way as to retire Mr. Roose- velt from the presidency. If it be asked why they do not vote the Repub- lican ticket, the answer is that many will. But a large number of these old school Democrats are men of strong | political convictions and conscience. | They do not like the Republican party, and do not want to vote for it. Their hope is that Mr. Roosevelt can be de- | feated next year, and the New Deal rejected at the polls, the regular Dem- ocratic party as now dominated by Mr. Roosevelt and the New Dealers will again become a true Democratic party. They want the Democratic party to be purged of the New Deal—they want Mr. Roosevelt defeated and they are willing to help defeat him, but they want a means by which they can help defeat him without voting the Re- publican ticket. Fruitful Effort Seen. It is to accommodate Democrats of this type that the third ticket is pro- jected. Whether it will come to fruit is too early to tell. I think it will. ( Iam going on the assumption that the new project is as I have described it. Another possibility is that the traditional Democrats might try to prevent Mr. Roosevelt from being re- nominated, might make the attempt earnestly and formidably, and then, | if defeated, might organize a third party. But if that were the intention, | | the sponsors of it would not think of | it, or describe it, at this time, as a | | third party. Actually, I suspect the promoters of the project, like nearly | every one else, take it for granted Mr. Roosevelt will be able to renominate himself. And I imagine the intention | bringing all of the 20 or more emer- | his economy promises of 1932, and of { portation act and the new National | I8 to provide a home for Democrats gency agencies and commissions under | the requirements of the Budget Bu- | bis announced determination now for substantial reductions in the costs of Roosevelt has revealed since ' reau, the same as the regularly con- | running the Federal Governmen). coming to his old Duchess County homestead for a brief | visit that he is planning some sub- | stantial economies in the operation of | the Government, especially in the . great number of the agencies which | have been set up during the depression | emergency. The President does not yet know how this is going to be done but he is going to start with a plan fcnlun; for curtailment of the various emergency agencies. He is satisfied that a number of these activities | which are now costing huge sums to administer can be consolidated, or their activities co-ordinated to the | point where substantial savings can be | effected. | All of this signifies that Mr. Roose- | velt has come to the conclusion that }the New Deal's spending spree must | come to an end without further delay and that he is going in strong for a general policy of governmental | economy. | that he wants the doors thrown wide | open to affect new and substantial economies. It is possible that when he enters upon the actual campaign next year for his re-election that a definite stand for govesnmental econ- omy will be found near the top of his list of campaign issues. This is especially likely in the event of the nomination by the Republicans of Gov. Landon of Kansas, who has at- tracted national recognition by his economy administration in Kansas. New Policy of Economy. The President’s money-saving plan is merely a new policy of governmental economy, and from hints he has al- ready thrown out as to what he is aiming at, thousands of men and women who are now employed by these various activities will be dismissed. Mr. Roosevelt contends that there is no longer any need for these agencies running wild in the matter of per- sonnel and other forms of money- spending. now that the peak of the emergency brought about by the de- pression is, in his opinion, a thing of the A np:nPresident is of the conviction that, with the peak of the emergency over, these suddenly-created activities must now knuckle down to a more or less routine business and necessarily must operate with considerably fewer employes. In revealing this the President said he was unable at this time to say just what agencies would figure in con- templated consolidations ‘or other forms of curtailment. His plan has not yet been worked out to that ex- tent, but he indicated that before Congress again assembles in Wash- ington, early next January, he will be ready to present a detailed program. To bring about the cuts he is antici- pating it will be necessary for him to seek a certain amount of legislation, and he therefore propases to be well prepared in this respect with the opening of the next session of Con- gress. Determined on Co-ordination. Although the President at this tim is unable to discuss details, he has de- termined already to bring about con- solidations or co-ordination in the matter the several emergency agencies now engaged in activities concerning homes and housing. Re- cently he started a group of admin- istrative assistants upon the task of working out a plan of this kind, which will make it possible to bring these various home and housing activities under one head, thereby effecting 2 real saving of public money as well as removing no end of overlapping in authority and activities. practically sident has | lieve meat are bound to jump |bread and were living almost entirely asued “&““""‘m—.,“m”‘f;"m e, i e ok o ety | o cucumbers sod melonk Mr. Roosevelt has made it evident | stituted departments and independent agencies. These orders make it pos- | sible for the President, through the Budget Bureau, to restrict the money spending of these so-called alpha- betical activities. In other words, Mr. Roosevelt is going to keep his hands on the purse strings of these agencies in the future. In this connection he has delegated to the director of the budget the task of scrutinizing the es- timates for appropriations for these various agencies and of carefully scanning their respective pay rolls for | the purpose of determining just what | employes may be dropped and what salaries may be cut. President Roosevelt is a trained ex- | ecutive. Long before he came into the White House he learned at Albany the importance of governmental economy. At heart he believes in it. Also, he is | too good & politician to not recognize now that the opposition party will undoubtedly bombard him in the forthcoming national campaign with | accusations of broken pledges and | unfulfilled promises regarding gov- ernmental economy. campaign of 1932 Candidate Roosevelt promised a 25 per cent reduction in | the governmental expense. He did | fulfll this promise when he took office through the enactment in 1933 of the economy act, which did bring about & 25 per cent reduction so far as the ordinary budget was concerned, but exclusive of the debt retirement, and exclusive of extraordinary ex- penses growing out of the widespread depression. Little by little this Roose- velt-pledged economy was wiped out. Federal pay cuts were restored, and | compensation through World War vet- | erans was restored until finally the | last vestige of his economy disap- peared when Congress, at its last ses- sion, passed the Spanish War veter- ans’ bill, which Mr. Roosevelt ap- proved. Pledge Not Being Observed. ‘Therefore, as his campaign for re- election is close by, Mr. Roosevelt finds himself without one single economy pledge being observed. ‘Those who have discussed this sub- ject with the President feel confident that long before the forthcoming cam- paign gets actually under way Mr. Roosevelt will have an economy pro- gram to which he can point with pride. His intimates are likewise con- fident of Mr. Roosevets’ sincerity in | It will be recalled that during the | | While Mr. Roosevelt himself does not know definitely now how he is| going to effect thesee conomies, he' does know that from now on economy | is going to be a paramount policy of | his administratin. Inasmuch as Mr. | Roosevelt is unable to throw any light | upon the contemplated consolidations and agency curtailments, it would be futile for any one to attempt to do any guessing at this advanced date.| | Of course the President has already signified his determination to consol- | idate or co-ordinate the home and housing activities, and it is natural to, expect that the Farm Credit Admin- istration, as well as the Commodity | Credit Corp., have reached the point now where they could readily be taken over by the Agricultural Adjust- | ment Administration. | Speculation of this nature also might include the transferring of the ! activities of the co-ordinator of Fed- | eral transportation ‘to the Interstate Commerce Commission. The same holds good in the matter of the Fed- eral Home Loan Bank Board, which is expected to be eventually turned | over to the Home Owners’ Loan Corp. | However, the answer to all this is not | even known now by Mr. Roosevelt | himself, and therefore what might be !looked upon today as a good guess | might prove to be a bad one when | Mr. Roosevelt's economy plan has been perfected in detail. JOB LOSS FACES THOUSANDS. Seven Emergency Units to Go Under Budget Bureau's Eye. BY BLAIR BOLLES. ‘The specter of unemployment faces | thousands of employes in at least eight Federal emers. , agencies as | & result of President Roosevelt's new economy announcement that here- i after the expenditures of these organ- izations are to be brought under the close scrutiny of the cold-blooded Budget Bureau. But the wholesale economy dis- charges will not begin until July 1, 1937, at the opening of the next fiscal year, and by that time the Social Security Board will have begun the hiring of the 10,000 workers needed to administer the old-age pension plan, the Guffey Coal Commission will have been set up with 500 employes, the Interstate Commerce Commission will have given work to 600 more men and women to administer the 1935 trans- BUDAPEST (#).—Hungary faces a hard Winter—perhaps the most diffi- cult since early post-war years. Drought and crop failures have hit the peasant hard, epidemics directly due to undernourishment have broken out in some sections, low wages and rising living costs have bred discontent and strikes among the workers, and there is much anxiety for the months to come. At present there is a surplus of 5,- 000,000 metric quintals of wheat, of which Italy, Austria and Switzerland have bought about two-thirds. The remainder probably will remain here, as the Hungarian wheat price is above the price of overseas wheat, and there will be enough bread for those who can buy it. There is, however, a great shortage of fodder. Prices are steadily rising and panic-stricken peasants are throw- ing swine and cattle on the market at ruinously low prices. Observers be- Misery of Early Post-War Hungary Faces Struggling Nation This Winter sacrificed must be replaced. Butter and lard are becoming rapidly more expensive because of the government’s policy of pushing exports to England and thus obtaining much-needed ster- ling exchange. Agricultural workers, who ordinarily would earn enough during the harvest months to get through the Winter, are in a desperate predicament, and the government faces the problem of feed- ing them. Hungary's industry also suffers from the plight of the farmer, for peasants cannot buy when they have no money. . In some sections a food shortage has developed and outbreaks of dysentery and typhus are reported, which health authorities attribute to undernourish- ment. The epidemic of dysentery and other intestinal diseases in the Kec- skemet district, for instance, was at- tributed to the pathetically impover- ished diet of the population. People ‘were eating no meat or Labor Relations Board will probably have expanded its present staff by 200. These agencies were authorized by Congress as permanent arms of the Federal Government, and now it seems likely that the large majority of the emergency organization workers to be displaced by next July 1 will find other work with the new bureaus. Thus in one fell swoop economy will have been effected and the victims of the economy salved, all before the 1936 elections. Saving Supreme Court declarations of unconstitutionality, it seems prob- able that the seven so-called emer- gency organizations the President has in mind to pare—the N. R. A., the F. E R. A. the T. V. A, the Co-ordi- nator of Transportation, the Commod- ity Credit Corp.. the Farm Credit Ad- ministration and the A. A. A—will, in modified form, become permanent | Tennessee Valley Authority and the establishments. The present Recovery Administra- tion, which, according to the most re- cent Civil Service Commission re- port. issued August 21, still has 4,208 employes, is doomed next March, but research is under way at the N. R. A. to find a rtw and constitutional method of controlling to some extent key industries by a code set-up of some sort. Sharp Pay Roll Increase. ‘The Federal pay roll began to climb in March, 1933, soon after Pres- ident Roosevelt’s declaration in fav.r of stringently reducing governmental administrative expenses. When Mr. Roosevelt assumed office there were 566,986 Federal workers, 67.557 of them in the District. On July 31 there were 729,769 altogether, 104,498 in Washington. The advent of the New Deal made Washington a mecca for thousands of hopefuls, most of them Democrats long denied admission to the patron- age lists, who bombarded Democratic national headquarters in the National | Press Building for jobs. Long lines of men and women and even children waited patiently in ante rooms, while they clutched recom- mendations of their ability and poli- tics from county chairmen, for the day when they would be given the word to go to work. Washington be- came packed, and the housing situa- tion here grew acute. Not only did thousands of persons from every corner of the country flock to the home site of the New Deal, but the Government's own op- erating space began to expand so fast | that today whole office buildings, an auditorium and private residences on once-sacrosanct upper Massachusetts | avenue are headquarters for govern- mental activity. 26 New Agencies Created. Since President Roosevelt assumed office, 26 new agencies have been es- tablished by congressional action or executive order in the Democratic effort to fetch recovery, reform and relief. Their far-reaching activity has dipped into the lives of every per- son in the country—the business man, the pauper, the home owner, the farmer, the laborer—and to run them it required, on July 31, the work of 78,873 men and women. In this long list are these organizations: . Agricultural Adjustment Adminis- tration, Central Statistical Board, Commodity Credit Corp., two Export- Import Banks, Farm Credit Admin- istration, Federal Alcohol Control Administration, Federal Communi- cations Commission, Federal Co-ordi- nator of Transportation, Federal De- posit Insurance Corp., Federal Emer- gency Administration of Public Works, Federal Emergency Relief Adminis- tration, Federal Housing Administra- tion, Federal Surplus Relief Corp., Home Owners’ Loan Corp., National Archives, Natjonal Emergency Coun- cil, National ubc’ Relations Board, who, in the election next vear, do not want to vote for Mr. Roosevelt and do not want to vote for a Republican.) About the movement for & third ticket to accommodate traditional Democrats, certain conditions are ele- mentary. For organizing the third party and leading it, Democrats must | come forward who do not now hold office. Democrats now holding office cannot afford to identify themselves with a third party movement. Most | of the Democrats now in office will be National Recovery Administration, National Resources Committee, Na- | tional Steel Labor Relations Board, | National Textile Labor Relations | Board, Resettlement Administration, Rural Electrification Administration, ‘ Securities and Exchange Commission, | Works Progress Administration. l Coming months, if the President | pursues to its logical conclusion his | | stand taken last week in regard to approximating a balanced budget. and an end to purely emergency appropria- | tions, promise an upheaval for many | | of these agencies. | Plans are already being laid for ! the amailgamation of the manifold | | organizations devoted to housing, but it will probably be done slowly enough to permit gradual transfer of employes | from defunct agencies to those newly | | organized. Expansion Would Stop. Strict Budget Bureau control of the expenditures of the epergency agen- ! cies might not result in a marked re- | duction in the present total number of Federal employes, but it is expected | to bring a halt to the ceaseless expan- | sion of the governmental pay roll. Deficiency appropriation measures passed to meet mounting expenses of | emergency agencies have accounted | for a large portion of the some 35 billion dollars spent by the New Deal | since early in 1933. Hereafter, Federal | bureaus will be forced to live “with- | | in their income.” so to speak, and not in the middle of a fiscal year petition for added funds to pay extra employes needed for some new activity. The spending spree, ironically enough, began within six months after President Herbert Hoover charged the last session of the Seventy-first Con- gress in his budget message for the fiscal year 1933-34: “A large excess of expenditures with consequent increase in the public debt is anteipated for the current fiscal year. Such a situation cannot be con- tinued without disaster to the Federal | finances. The recommendations here- in presented to the Congress for further drastic reductions in expendi- tures and increased revenues will serve to prevent a further increase in the public debt during the fiscal year 1934 only if Congress will refrain from placing additional burdens upon the PFederal Treasury. Spending Limit Sought. “I can not too strongly urge that every effort be made to limit expendi- tures and avoid odditional obligations not only in the interest of the already heavily burdened taxpayer but in the interest of the integrity of the finances of the Federal Government.” The appropriations urged in the last Hoover budget message amounted to $4,218,808,344. Actual expenditures in the period covered by the message, all of which was under control of the New Deal, came to $9,403,006,700. Hereafter, Federal outlays may re- main on the new high plane. But at least the President’s intention of anchoring his expenditures close by the Budget Bureau estimates will bring to an end the honeymoon for the Democratic spoils seeker. Jobs after next July in the Federal service mupnudmtfncwmlm candidates for re-election next year on the same ticket at the head of which will be Mr. Roosevelt. It is simply not practicable for them to be associated actively with a third party movement. They may deplore or bitterly resent Mr. Roosevelt's course—in their hearts most of the thoughtful among them do. But Mr. Roosevelt, like 4ny Presi- dent in office, is able to re-nominate himself. Since he will be at the head of the regular Democratic ticket, the others on the ticket must go through the motions of endorsing and support- ing him. It is not an agreeable con- dition. It is not pleasant to contem- plate hundreds of men, many of them leaders highly placed, giving lip serv- ice to a thing in which they do not believe. But as a practical matter, Democrats now in office and espe- cially ones running for re-election next year, will feel obliged to do just that. To do otherwise would be po- litical suicide, or resignation to cer- tain political execution. A few Demo- crats in active political life may take the course of suicide, or of inviting political death. Even one example, if highly placed, would do much to call the attention of the country to the seriousness of the issues in next year's presidential campaign. Glass Effective Critie. Two of the most conspicuous eritics and opponents of the tendency toward collectivism are Senators Carter Glass and Harry F. Byrd of Virginia. The voice of Senator Glass, certainly, is more powerful than that of any Re- publican. Another effective critic and opponent is Senator Millard P Tydings of Maryland. But I doubt very much if any of these would align himself with a third party. For their course, no one who knows political | realities will esteem them any less They feel they can be more effective | by remaining within the Democratic party, and from that leverage seek- ing to force the party back to what they regard as its true course. Mr. Carter Glass in the Senate is a pow- erful voice; Mr. Glass defeated for re-election next year would be much less a force. It follows that the leadership of the third party for traditional Democrats, and the candidates of it, must come from Democrats not now holding office It must come from Democrats whose office-holding days are over. Or it must come from Democrats distin- guished in other areas of life than office-holding. There are many emi- nent Democrats of both kinds. There are living three men who have had the Democratic nomination for the presi- dency, ex-Gov. Alfred E. Smith of New York, ex-Gov. James M. Cox of Ohio and former Democratic Ambassador to London John W..Davis. How any of these may feel about the New Deal I | do not know. I imagine all three would like to bring the Democratic party back to where it was when they headed it. There are yet others: Ex-Gov. Al- bert C. Ritchie of Maryland, ex-Gov. Ely of Massachusetts, former Secretary of War in Woodrow Wilson's cabinet, Newton D. Baker. There are others who have standing without ever hav- | ing held office. The efforts of the or- ganizers of the third party must be to find out what ones are willing to align themselves publicly with the new party, and then determine what ones | among these would make the most ap- pealing candidates for President and Vice President. The eflectiveness of a third ticket of traditional Democrats would not be measured by its chance of winning, for it would have none. It would not be measured by the number of votes it would receive. Its efectiveness would lie in its causing the country to realize | the gravity of the issue, and in the emphasis it would put on principle and conscience. Figures for Next Year. In the last presidential election the results were: Roosevelt, Democrat, 22,521,525 Hoover, Republican, 15,597,537 The difference, Mr. Roosevelt's ma- jority, was seven milkions. Looking to | next year the principal question is how | many of the 22!, millions who voted | for Mr. Roosevelt in 1932 will next year vote for the Republican candidate. We may begin by inquiring how many persons, habitually Republican, voted for Mr. Roosevelt in 1932. Were there as many as two millions? One would think so—readily that, for the country | was in the depths of the depression; | and in addition to that reason, many Republicans voted the Democratie ticket because they preferred the forth- right position of the Democratic plat~ form on prohibition. Would it be | safe to say that as many as two mil- | lion Republicans voted for Mr. Roose- | velt in 1932? And that those two | million will next year vote for the Re= | publican candidate? If so, that trans- | fer of two million votes would make the figures Democratic, 20,521,525 Republican, 17,597,537 | _Now how many persons, habityal Democrats, who voted for Mr. Roose- |velt as a matter of course in 1932 will in 1936 vote against him? Would it be safe to estimate that there are as many as 2,000,000 of thes¢’> Trans- fer of that 2,000,000, if it should take place, would make the figures: Democratic, 18,521525 Republican, 19,597,537 | In addition to persons who voted | the Democratic ticket in 1932, but will in 1936 vote the Republican one, we must take into account the possibility of a third party, perhaps more than one .third party. A third party headed by a conservative Democrat | might readily take half & million votes from Mr. Roosevelt. A third party, of a different type, headed by | Huey Long, might take another half milion. All this is sheer guesswork. To | suggest that roughly 25 per cent of | those who voted for Mr. Roosevelt in 1932 might vote against him in 1936 may seem extreme. But the lesson of | that Rhode Island congressional elec- | tion last month is that very large | numbers of voters can change their | minds in a short time. The propor- tion who switched in Rhode Island, between November of last year and August of this, if applied to the presi- dential election next year, would de- feat Mr. Roosevelt. (Copyright. 1935.) 1