Evening Star Newspaper, January 17, 1932, Page 23

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Editorial Page EDITORIAL SECTION he Sundiy Star. Part 2--8 Pages WASHINGTON, SUNDAY MORNING, JANUARY 17, 1932. DEPRESSIONS IN PAST HAVE| ALWAYS ENDED ABRUPTLY Each Generation Has Experienced at i That’s the Slogan of “Alfalfa Bill,” Who Is Now Being Touted as Presidential Timber. Least One Such Economic Disturbance. BY DANIEL C. CHACE. HEN the fevered brow of the business world has been ac- companied by other painful symptoms of distemper, it has been customary in all periods to cry out that economic dis- ease threatened disaster . in the United States. While in the throes of depression and its companion evil, unemployment, it has often been customary to observe only the things that produce hopeless- ness of spirit, overlooking the undis- uted fact that throughout financial story, depressions have melted away ac abruptly and unceremoniously as they have approached American economic_ annals show many such periods. Each generation has experienced at least one disturb- ance, and the comments of the people or thelr leaders have been similar throughout. Distress has been upper- most, but the certainty of the inevitable aftermath of renewed prosperity is driven from the mind as the struggle | has followed the usual course. From | the records, however, it appears that American depressions were more marked | in the last century, and that somehow, | since 1900, this country has shown greater efficiency in dealing with an | abnormal situation. More than a century ago, President James Monroe faced such a situation, and in a message to the legislative | branch of the Government described conditions with the concluding state- ment: “In what way the evils adverted to may be remedied is submitted to the wisdom of Congress.” In his frank discussion of facts, President Monroe, on December 7, 1819, told the statesmen of his day: “The great reduction in the price of the principal articles of domestic growth, which has occurred | during the present year, and the conse- quent fall in the price of labor, ap- parently so favorable to the success of | domestic manufactures, have not shield- ed them against other causes adverse far above all partisan or political con- | eir prosperity. The pecuniary em- | e ents have so deeply affected | the commercial intagests of the Nation have been no less adverse to our manu- facturing establishments in several sec- tions of the Union Banks Withdraw Support. «The great reduction of the currency wr.xgm e banks have been constrained to make in order to continue specle payments, and the vitiated character of it where such reductions have not been attempted, instead of placing within the reach of these establishments the | pecuniary aid necessary to avail selves of the advantages resulting from the reduction of the prices of the raw | materials and of labor, have compelled | the banks to withdraw from them & portion of the capital heretofore ad- | vanced to them. That aid which has been refused to the banks has not been | obtained from other gources, owing to the loss of individual confidence. from the failures which have recently oc- curred in some of our principal com- | mercial cities. An additional cause of the depression of these establishments may probably be found in the pecuni- ary embarrassments which have re- cently affected those countries with which our commerce has been princi- pally prosecuted.” The President concluded his com- ment with the appeal to Congress | and & statement of what would now | be described as “dumping” by foreign countries also affected by the general econditions. Another outstanding period of de- spondency was that of 1857, in the course of which Harper's Weekly pub- | lished the comment “It is a gloomy moment in history., Not for many years * * * has there been so much grave and deep appre- hension; never has the future seemed #0 incalculable as at this time, In our own country there is universal com- mercial prostration and panic, and | thousands of our poorest fellow citi- | gzens are turned out against the ap- | proach of Winter without employment | and without the prospect of In | France the political caldron seethes and | bubbles with uncertainty; Russia hangs, | as usual, like a cloud * * * upon the | horizon of Europe, while all the energies and resources of the British empire are sorely tried and are yet to be tried |dent and his Cabinet are absolutely | more sorely in coping with the Indian insurrection and with the * + + disturbed relations in China.” The New York Herald, on the same day, October 10, 1857, pictured the con- ditions that afflicted the country, in the words: “'As day after day passes in the terrible financial agony, we can see the country thrill from end to end. Bank failures succeed each other slowly but |ures were very frequent, but as a re- |ipe inverim regularly in the North and East In the West there has been 5o little money and so much business has been done on credit that the revulsion is likely be more severelv felt there than an; where else. The city banks of New York and Boston still hold out, and the managers say—whatever they think— that they will weather the crisis. We hope some of them may. As to the marchants, aft failures of this week, no catastrophe could be regarded as surprising as now become the rule and solvency the exception.” Depression Causes Traced. The North American Review, in the course of comment on the same depres- sion in the issue of January, 1858, gave some attention to the causes, with the statement “The Summer of 18 found the whole mercantile community In connection with this same situa- tion, Gov. James Pollock of Pennsylva- nia issued a message October 6, 1857 calling a special session of the Legisla- ture and announcing as to the emer- gency: “A sudden and severe financial revulsion has occurred, inducing a sus- pension of specie payments by the banks of the Commonwealth and in some of our sister States. This result, however much to be regretted and de- plored, was unavoidable, having be- come, from the operation of causes un- necessary now to be enumerated, a stern necessity. Thus circumstanced, the community is suffering from the want of a currency, the destruction of confidence and the numerous evils con- sequent on financial embarrassment Every department of industry has felt and been disastrously affected by the shock; trade and commerce have been paralyzed; the merchant, the manufac- turer, the mechanic have seen their bright prospects suddenly blasted, and many have been involved in a ruin which no ordinary sagacity or foresight could avert. Many of our furnaces, rolling mills and factories have been closed, extensive and valuable coal op- erations have been suspended or aban- doned and thousands of workmen are out of employment, oppressed Wwith | doubt and anxiety and alarmed with gloomy apprehensions of the future.” Recommends Relief Steps. The Governor added: “The banks should be released from the penalties and forfeitures incurred by a suspen- sion, which should be authorized for such reasonable period as will enable them safely to resume the payment of their liabilities in specle. * * * For the relief f the debtors, provision should be made for an extension of the time in which execution or judgment may issue, and the period now provided by law for the stay of execution. * * * The questions submitted for your determination are important and ‘momentous. The rise siderations or calculations. A suffering community in the hour of anxiety and | peril expects at your hands prompt and | patriotic action for their relief.” The panic of 1873 was one which also caused much distress, and in an an- alysis of its development, the New York | Sun published on September 24 the comment: “The truth is we have brought it upon ourselves. We have spent too much borrowed money and built too many railroads on credit. We have lived too fast.” Three days later the Sun declared as to what it called the “Wall Street ic”: “What a week ago threatened to be a purely stock panic, depressing the nominal value of railroad and other stocks, may unfortunately percolate through every commercial artery of the country.” In the same issue the Wall street re- port announced that “trade and com- merce are nearly paralyzed.” On September 29 the Sun declared | editorially: “The continuance of the financial panic proves conclusively that our ruling financiers are inadequate, In that issue a dispatch from Wash- ington gave the information: “The financial affairs of the city are in a deplorable condition. The banks have been drained daily by depositors, and it is sald that $250,000 was taken from this city to Baltimore yesterday to sus- tain certain private banking houses. the bank presidents and heads of bank- ing houses to consider and adopt the contractors who have been at work on the streets will all drop work tomorrow unless the laborers will agree to work and wait for their pay.” Panic of 1893 and 1894. The panic of 1893 and 1894 is de- clared in financial history to have been brought about by the efforts of silver producers in the United States to force the use of silver in coinage. Lssuance of large amounts of silver dollars re- deemable in gold was sought, and the threats resulted in a serious effect on the gold supply. Bread, Butter, Bacon, Beans BY MARTIN HEFLIN. Shirt tails out, | Toe nails draggin’. Come on you nesters, Keep on a raggin’ . . . | ARN dance? OId - fashioned square? Or a huskin' bee? Nothing of the kind. We are in the Capitol Building of the great State of Oklahoma. The | commotion? Well, William Henry Myr- ray, better known nationally as simply “Alfalfa Bill” is just taking a few moments' respite from the arduous duties of State to prove to a couple of old crones from the short grass that | years of age hasn't lessened by one whit his old ability to step the “Kitchen | Sweat” with the best of them. Swing yo' podners, Circle to the right, There ain’t gonna be No supper here tonight . . . | The Governor's huge office reverber- | sure-enough camp meeting. The vast- nesses of long marble corridors echo and re-echo the high squeak of the fiddle. The fluttery whine of a har-| | monica mocks _the dignity of the State’s ordered business. And “Alfalfa Bill” “hoes it down” with a buck | |and that the malady is beyond their | Wing that would make many a cotton | control.” chopping darkey down “hack o' town” turn green with professional envy. | Old Aunt Sal | And Uncle Lee, They got bit By a goggle-eyed flea . . . shuffling Governor. this business of being Governor and 62 | ates with the rhythmic stomp of a| UPPER: “ALFALFA BILL® PREPARING HIS INAUGURAL ADDRESS. WHEN THE MILITIA WAS CALLED OUT TO FIGHT THE DGE BATTLE. harmonica. The boys from the short Mountain When She Comes!” follow. grass grin a snaggle-toothed grin as | This concludes the hullabaloo and the “Ever'body on the chorus,” pants the | their Bill gets off to a flying start on|crowd reluctantly departs. Yes, we think, half amazed at this “she’ll be comin’ LOWE! FAMOUS BRI “The Wreck of the | A meeting was called yesterday of all| “Whee-c-e-e,’ answer admirers | State Capitol employe and visitor alike, | performance, jammed about the door; and the steady | 0ld enough to remember this ancient | the mount stomp and pat of hands increase, | ditty plan of the New York banks in regard |drowning the plaintive twanging of a | Brown Jug’ to certifying large checks. * * * The | jews-harp. The Governor borrows the 'Coon” and “She’s Comin' Round the | falfa Bill” U Tound | that very thing, once upon a time, get- of the | ting pretty badly scratched, for at this this mythical “she” ey el revopnize “Al. | WTiting there have been no_impeach- "“Old Zip | old hill-billy tune, she’ll recognize Murray as a character from “Little | she does, ‘“‘Casey Jones, her own era: a fabulous, lank, old man, carelessly and cheaply clothed, with long, Western sherifi’s mustachios, | shaggy, gray-streaked hair and bright | eyes that see through you and beyond. | She will see him perched recklessly but | confidently upon the sturdy seat of the | buckboard—it has been called every- | thing else—of State, lashing away at and berating the excited, champing | mules that draw the careening vehicle | toward, some say, the Bl s what end! The mules, it might be added in such |an analogy, could be scarcely other than the brow-beaten legislators, who sit uneasily, even sullenly, to do “Al- falfa’s” bidding. Only the Governor, never losing an opportunity to employ some bucolig witticism at an adversary’s expense, might correct the figure and say that mules, however recalcitrant, are useful. He would point out to you, surely, this fundamental difference in 3 legislator and a mule. As these same legislators gathered for their first session after Murray's inauguration in 1930, he very soon made it clear what he considered their | function to be: to co-operate and say little or nothing. If they had the temerity to do otherwise, he threatened them, 100,000, of the “common people” awaited his beck and call and would chase them home “like s0 many jack- rabbits.” He went on to tell them that their buzzing—which had already be- gun—about an impeachment had bet- ter stop, too. And he concluded his remarks with the significant interroga- tion: “Did you ever try to pull a wild- cat out of a hollow stump?” Flings Gauntlet to Legislature. Evidently some of the gentlemen of the Thirteenth Legislature had tried (Continued on Fourth Page.) England as It Is Today Britain, Safely Past Its Crisis, Is Cheerful and Relieved, but Leaders Must Press On. President Cleveland made the state- | ment on April 24, 1894: “The Presi- harmorious in the determination to ex- ercise every power conferred upon them to maintain the public credit, to keep the public faith, and to preserve the parity between gold and silver and be- tween all financial obligations of the Government.” In the Summer of that year business was almost at a standstill and fail- sult of drastic measures taken by the Government, the disturbance soon passed into history. An analysis of panic causes, by Hor- ace White, published in the Fortnightly Review, June 1, 1876, offersd the judg- ment “It is a_ humiliating reflection that the Anglo-Saxon race is unable to sub- sist through a whole generation with- out two or three times breaking into a commercial and financial stampede, in which, figuratively speaking, hun- dreds of thousands of people are trampled to death, or left bruised and bleeding by the wayside. These dis- graceful routs have latterly assumed something of the regularity of clock work, so that people pretend to know when to expect one by looking in the almanac. The years 1816, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866, 1873—each of these BY ANDRE SIEGFRIED, Auther of “America Comes of Age.” HAVE just returned from a short Oxford and London. It irst time I _had visited since about the middle of last May—that is to say, before the deluge. How does British public opin- ion appear to me to have changed in In good faith, T fully expected to find |a country full of encrgy, and fully pre- pared to hold its own even though por- | foundly s! 1. The first Englishman | I met greeted me with, “Well, what do | you think about it?” in a tone of voice | which would not have been different if | England had just sustained some great victory. The tr 15 that the English | people are feeling an enormous relief, as well as ¢ t pride, in the po- litical righting of the last elections. Many things were going to pieces under the Labor cabinet. The country has now proclaimed its desire to re- ‘cn(or an orde world, at least to| | break away from the intolerable tyr- | anny of one class, or, more exactly, a professional group—that is, the trade unions. In this way the English have shown that when circumstances | though apparently prosperous, with an | nas 'ushered in its holocaust of Eng- |lave become really serious they know amount of indebtedness, mutual, to lish victims, and the alternate periods to rally around those who can | banks and to capitalists, exceeding to & | have included America as well, so that | defend the old traditions and can bring degree before unprecedented, the aggre- ate convertible value of the proper n hand. Much of this property, too had begun to decline in its reputed value Real estate in the new cities of the West had fallen in the market - most_every description of railroad prop- erty had become depreciated; in numer- ous instances the original stock of rail- ways had grown worthless; third and second mortgages could hardly have been exchanged for an equivalent amount of blank paper; and even first mortgages were below par. Manufac- tured goods had been produced and im- ported to such an extent as to exceed the highest possible demand of the sea- son, and thus to threaten a general re- duction of prices. There were thus ac- cumulated all the materials for a uni- versal panic. At this juncture occurred the failure of the Ohio Life and Trust Co., an institution which had stood high in the public confidence, and had ex- tensive connections in all our great cities. Its suspension at any other period might have affected only those who held its obligations, or were inter- ested in it as depositors or stockholders. But the credits of the country were an inverted pyramid, and needed but touch for them to topple and fall Creditors became alarmed and saw ample reason for alarm. Loans were called in on maturity; extensions and new loans were refused. Prices still falling, and threatening still further de- cline, the assets of the indebted clas were dwindling in the prospect and eould no longer sustain credit.” In the same month Harper's Magazine an- nounced that “the severity of the finan- cial pressure has relaxed.” business men take into their calcula- tions a panic. on one side of the water every ten years, and on the other side every twenty. But notwithstanding the apparent regularity of the visitation, very few men engaged jn trade escape when the clock strikes the dreadful hour Preceded by Boom. The appearance of prosperity imme- diately preceding the panic is so de- ceitful, the activity of trade and the upward movement of prices are 5o ex- hilarating, that the tornado always finds us with every inch of canvas spread, all the ports open and the crew fast asleep. It is impossible to exaggerate the suf- fering caused by these financial storms, | whose vengeance always falls with | greatest severity upon those least re- sponsible for them .and least able to | gen. resist them—the laboring poor.” The same magazine at about the same | Gone | date said that “the phenomena ante- | temporarily cedent to the crisis were the usual ones —a rise of prices, great prosperity, 1aTge | cigtion, and profits, high wages and strikes for high- | session’ of it. & or, crowded thoroughfares, large impor- | go**piy o0 1t B¥ery indu tations, a railway mania, expanded |swamped by products f order out of chaos. The danger now ave worked to the | this electoral | straightening may be tempted to say to themselves that their work is fin- | shed, that they have done enough and that no more effort should be required of them Others Glad of Depreciation. As a parallel to this feeling of relief, many Englishmen are experiencing an | | equal sense of happy adjustment that | British mind is fairly unique. they are now rid of the intolerable |one knows that th money is_inevital rise in prices. | weight of a too heavy currency. | It oftey, has been said, and rightly, tremendously braced up; Manchester secretly hoped for depr‘e’- Tejoices in the pos- | our being | from countries ‘ credits, overtrading, overbuilding and|with depreciated money, now it s we high living.” | who can invade these' foreign mar- A record is given of the number of | gets» | failures in that period, showing 2915 In | “without doubt this fecling' of relief | | 1871, 4,069 in 1872, 5,183 in 1873, 5,830 in 1874, 7,740 in 1875 and 2,806 in 1876. | The statement was made that ‘“crises| to give others the impression that they have been common from the great tulip | are contented wi e | speculation in Holland in 1636 down 0, not ‘be - prevented. * Norceh Shat could the present time.” this attitude exists is incontestable. I An explanation was given by the| "This shows, to those who tngeretand " (Continued on Foprth Page) —Drawn for The Sunday Star by J. Stockton Mulforg Every | because my pounds had only cost me 96 francs instead of the 124 francs I had paid six months before. Nevertheless, I met people wWho were buying provisions for the future, which signifies that they fear 2 rise of costs is approaching. Seriously, can a rise jn prices be avoided when on top of the fall of the | pound is to be added the new policy |of_protectionism? This policy of protectionism is a most curious thing. Here is a country which |lives on_ imported products and whose | principal industries export more than | half of their production. English expect from a tariff except a rise in prices which will bear heavily on the cost of production? Nevertheless, they are committed to 1t seems to be an irresist- e depreciation of | bly accompanied by a | The English seem to be- | that the “policy of the par value of | Jieve that this rise will not take place; | the pound served the city, but crushed | at least if it does it will come about ex- industry; every attempt to bring about | tremely gradually. Certain newspapers more salutary cost prices in industry | announce, with quasi-vengeful satisfac- | has been rendered difficult, and ac- | tion, that there has even been a lower- tually impossible, by this excessive bur- | ing of prices; Prices were lowered, and salaries | in this way: were not; therefore nothing could be | preserves her purchasing power, nothing Even now industry feels, at least | is changed.” | others face the situation “The old pound sterling Travel Costs Fail to Rise. Attention is called to the fact that re goods in which the margin of en the wholesale and retail enormous and that it will be first to lessen this margin; led to the fact that are disciplined and interests and that uccessful resistance to the es is possible. ler can claim that up to the the costs of things which con- e not mounted: I paid the my porter as usual taxi and my hotel Every industrialist says | there a What can the attention also is call the English people devoted to public is in part an attitude which can be | therefore & explained by the very natural desire | rise of pric into politics. England, in order to resist the trade unions, has voted for a “National” ma- In reality, without knowing it, perhaps even without wishing it, it is “Conservative” even Tory, that they have sent to Par- cern him havi same peurb(:h’; to 7 the same rate for m: | themselves, that the attitude of the @s before, and 4hat was all gain to me, above all a The attitude of the House of Com- mons toward the tariff question shows this same ‘“reaction,” this “National- ism.” And the magnificent majority is not certain to be maintained intact. Its right wing is too excitable and too sure of its own power. Impartial observers are asking them- selves if England is really going to tax wheat, meat and raw materials neces- sary for her industires. If the answer is yes, then this will be the end of England as an international center and England as a world power. Few people seem to be in the least worried at this orientation. Public opin- jon seems to be as unconscious as if it were chloroformed. Very few people |are to be met who are taking the fall |of their money tragically, though it came about suddenly and still contin- ues On the contrary, some of those whom I questioned rubbed their hands, af- fecting to pity the future plight of France, ridiculous with her gold stand- ard. The pound sterling will meet on a par with other equally depreciated currencies, they argued, and the coun- tries which remained on the gold stand- ard are the ones to be troubled. London Less Optimistic. ‘Where s the magnificent counsel that England gave us.in a tone of judgment at the time France’s money was de- preciating? When we approach the City this op- timism begins to ring false. Here we have the impression of real anguish. | In effect, the place that is really sacri- | ficed in this present policy is the City, the commercial and financial center of London. What can be done here with a currency that is vacillating in value and that no one will choose to use for international settlements? I am forced to conclude that this at- titude does not make a happy impres- sion. No one is talking of efforts that of industry in order to regain lost mar- kets. Everybody, on the contrary, after hav- ing complained of France (responsible for all this misfortune on account of her policy on reparations), declares that the English crisis has come about as a result of the world depression and that until this disorder is politically cor- rected there is nothing to be done. This 1s, as always, the old tendency of England—to complain of others rather than try to change herself. With Eng- land it is never that Mahomet should go to the mountain, but always that the mountain should go to Mahomet. Briefly, we cannot help asking whether England really evaluates the meaning of the peril that is always present in a monetary depreciation? Before the crisis she .always seemed to me to close her eyes voluntarily to the serious menace that hung over her. Even tqgay, does she understand? could be made to revise the cost prices' ON ARMS U. S. Champions BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. interested in the suppression of international narcotic traffic, returning from & long stay Geneva, reported that the Europeans whom she had encountered in the Swiss city were with few exceptions totally skeptical as to any possible achievement_in the forthcoming Dis- armament Conference. For Europe, | Miss Lamotte declared, the new meet- ing was “just another conference.” The state of mind, which has pre- vailed in Europe for at least a year, | has its origin, of course, in the recog- nition of the fact, which has still to find general acceptance on our side of the Atlantic, that since the armistice there have been only two kinds of in- | ternational conferences—those to deter- mine who won the war and those to | decide who should pay for it. | In the present instance, too, while the Geneva Conference will deal with the problem of who won the war, the sessions in the nearby city of Lausanne will be occupled with the question of who is to pay. And, of course, since the two problems are indissolubly linked, the two conferences will be similarly related, and since the question of money is more immediately pertinent, Lau- sanne will be more important than Geneva in all European eyes. Nominally, the Geneva Conference | will be for the purpose of bringing about some reduction in the military estab- lishments and, therefare, expenditures of the: European countries. It has, therefore, already been widely) heralded in this country, alike by administration and pacifist spokesmen, as vitally im- portant because of the service which it may and even must render both to the cause of international peace and to prosperity. Europe Sees French Power Issue. In Europe, on the other hand, it is plainly perceived that the chief issue at Geneva is going to be whether France and her allies will retain their present military predominance in Eu- Tope or can exchange this for some form of security agreement made by Britain and the United States which will guarantee that American ‘and British divisions will replace French and Polish as physical bulwarks of the existing frontiers and treaty law. | _ And, of course, this has been the un- | varying issue ever since the Paris Peace Conference itself. France and | her allies have today the necessary military strength to maintain the status quo. France, too, slthough suffering | from the general world depression, has still adequate funds to assure the main- tenance of her present military estab- lishment and support her allies in the maintenance of theirs. Dr. Woolley and her associates are | going to Geneva to persuade the French government and the FPrench people that they can safely reduce their armies, that if they reduce their armies they will run no risk from the Ger- mans, Italians or Hungarians, who con- tinue to demand territorial revision as a major detall in their respective for- eign policies. But if the French Poles and Czechs should agree to reduce their armies without obtaining any guarantee from the United States, that in case of Ger- man or other aggressions, American troops would come to their assistance, it is plain that they would run a risk which in their own minds has been a year history. Now tw problem of Geneva in so far as the United States is concerned is simple in the extreme. It is purely and simply a problem of what the United States delegates are going to say to the statesmen of Europe representing the present dominant powers which will convince them that they can safely re- duce their armaments in the face of the present state of mind in the coun- tries which, nominally at least, lost the war. The United States delegates could, in theory, say to the French and their al- lies: “Reduce your armies and Amer- ica, together with Britain, will guaran- tee that if you are subsequently at- tacked, we will come at once and un- hesitatingly to your assistance.” That is what the French demand, that has been the irreducible minimum of French insistence ever since the close of the World War. upon the British assistance, but the British on their part have been resolved Tot te give new guarantees in Europe save as their responsibilities: were shared by us. In practice, however, it is clear that the Arherican delegates cannot bind the United States to new foreign obli- gations. Congress would not accept them; the Hoover administration, in the present political season, would not per- mit it. Great Britain would not under- take the responsibility of the Polish corridor or of the status quo in Central Europe alone. Thus the first and most obvious method of bringing about a re- duction or limitation of armaments is out of the question. Debt-Arms Accord Unlikely. Nevertheless it would be possible for the United States delegates to approach the representatives of Germany, Italy and Hungary and ask from them some renunciation of their present purpose to ask treaty revision and, in the case of Germany and Italy, of the resolution to demand equality of military or naval strength with France. But the diffi- culty here lies in the fact that neither the German nor the Italian govern- ment would be politically able to agree to any such concessions. Thus the practical situation arises that, on the one hand, the United States delegates cannot offer the French di- rect guarantees in return for arma. ment reduction, nor can they, on the other, offer the balancing assurance incidsnt to the renunciation by Ger- many and Italy of policies which ex- plain the present strength of the armies of France and her allies. Nor can the United States offer the French and their opponents any reward in the shape of debt reductions in re- turn for military cuts, for Congress has quite clearly indicated its determi- nation to oppose any further reduction of war debts, and America has signifi- cantly absented itself from the confer- ence at Lausanne, where the financial details of the post-war problem are being considered. It is manifest, then, that the United States delegates in dealing with the prime ministers and foreign ministers of the several European countries will be in a position to offer no political in- ducements to gfrsunde them to accept the Amarican thesis, which is that one of the necessary contributions to abol- ishing the present economic prostration in the world must be the drastic re- duction of armament expenditures. But it is equally unmistakable that in all European minds the arrangement of political questions must precede any discussion of the details of disarma- ment. The present state of European armies and military expenditure repre- sents the contemporary estimate of European statesmen and popular ma- Jorities of the dangers to them threat- i WEEK or two ago Miss Enen[ | é Lamotte, an American woman dominating detail in all the post-war | EUROPEANS SKEPTICAL CONFERENCE of Parley Fail to Realize Breakdown at Geneva Will Only Aid Armaments. | ening beyond their frontiers. Of course this is not true of the nations which were forcibly disarmed by the peace | treaties, but these nations are appear- ing at Geneva to protest b->-use of the disproportion between their zimies and those of their victorious neighbors, U. S. Will Get Some Support. The French, Polish, Czech, Yugoslav and Rumanian peoples support their present military establishments by re- taining their present government, be- cause they believe that without these | armies they would be invaded and par- | titioned. And in the past half century | all these countries have been parti- | tioned. | Now success or failure in Gene turns precisely on the ability of t United States delegates to convert the statgsmen of Prance and her allies to | the American thesis that disarmament is the safest form of security, although they must be severely | handicapped on the one side by the treaty revision purposes of the defeated )nnflons of the World War and on the other by the.contemporary Manchurian | practices of the Japanese. 1 Of course the United States delegates will be materially encouraged by the support of the Germans, the Austrians, the Hungarians, the Bulgarians and the Italians. But this support will also be a little compromising because it is | plain that, since all these powers have already had their armies forcibly re=- | duced by the peace treaties, every re- | duction of the military forces of their | conquerors gives them a better chance in any new conflict. Even if one ac- | quits the Germans and their former al- | lies of any present belligerent purpose, |it is plain that if later they changed | their mood, their situation would be | greatly improved if meantime French, Polish and Little Entente armies had been reduced. And the French, seeing American delegates supported by Cen- | tral European, will inevitably if un- charitably conclude that we are chang- ing sides, that we have gone over to the enemy and deserted our former allies Now to go back to the poin¢ at which I started, the reason all Eurc'peans are skeptical and cynical about the Dis- armament Conference is S%hat they know as a matter of fact And expe- rience that no nation is going to make any eflective modification in present military strength save as there is a previous change in the political situa- tion or a compensating acquisition of security by other means. And every European also perceives that at the present moment the circumstances in Europe are such that political dangers are increasing, not diminishing, and conditions in America preclude any ex- tensions of American liabilities in Europe. There is a vast and vocal popula- tion in the United States which has an almost fanatical belief in interna- tional conferences and a similar pas- sionate devotion to the cause of dis- armament. That population regards disarmament as a moral, not a politi- cal, issue and see an American dele- gation departing rather as missionaries upon an evangelical undertaking than as diplomats to a political conclave. That population believes that any con- ference is better than none and some ood, however small, must result. It as a curious faith in the existence in European countries of a similarly con- siderable group animated by the same sentiments. It trusts in the existence of a world opinion which will somehow be mobilized. British Want Postponement. Now in the matter of international conferences the European is far more experienced and sophisticated. He knows that delegates to international conferences are never converted by their associates to the surrender of the policies and convictions of their fellow countrymen by moral arguments, how- ever impressive, or alien idealism, how- ever cloquent. They know that & French delegate who accepted Ameri- can proposals about disarmament would be welcomed at home precisely in the manner that an American delegate who adopted French views of debt cancella- itlon would be hailed in Congress. Again, the European publics know that no success can be achieved at any international conference save as there | have been political agreements in ad- vance. And they are aware that not the smallest political agreement has been made in advance of the present meeting. On the contrary, Europeans are aware that French, German, Italian, Polish political policies are at an ex- treme point of irreconcilability and na- tionalistic passions in all countries are {in a condition of violent exacerbation. ‘They perceive, also, the fact, so far hidden from American friends of dis- armament and conference, that today it is the nations opposed to all reduc- tion, namely, France and her allies, who are actually pressing for the Geheva _meeting. The British, who a year ago were keen and insistent, have now made their best effort to insure postpone- ment. The friends of the League, the secretariat resident in Geneva, are most apprehensive, because they perceive the further disaster bound to overtake the League if to failure in Manchuria there is added futility in the disarma- ment sessions. But Prance and her allies are clearly aware that if the con- ference is forced on now, in the pres- ent state of European tempers, the whole cause of arms reduction or limi- tation may be set back indefinitely, or, as the French would say, until the prior issue of security is disposed of. What is well nigh tragic in the situ- ation is the fact, perceived so clearly among the League and pacifist cir- cles iri Europe, and still ignored by the many thousands of sincere champions of international co-operation in this country, that they are being led into an international conference not only fore- ’dnomed to failure, but destined to sup- ply their opponents with a position and ammunition which will be effectively exploited in the future. In Europe it | is_the friends of international peace | who are fearful, but in the United States, even yet, it is in similar circles that the Geneva Conference still finds champions. On the present showing it is as an armament, not as a dis- armament, conference that Geneva in- vites realistic approval in the armed countries of the Continent. (Copyright, 1932.) Stone Age, Celtic Relics Found by Reich Toilers BERLIN, Germany—A Stone Age settlement, which dates back to the fifth century, has just been unearthed in Leubnitz-Neuostra, a suburb of Dresden. Flints, pottery shards, as well as parts of a stone ax, have been 111.scovervdmu;l the course of the excavations, which are nj - s | being con- While the Dresden excavations are in progress, workmen at Rauis, Thu- ringia, have accidentally stumbled upon two graves dating to the Celtic period. Remains of a burial urn and other finds in the graves indicate the existence in Thuringia of & huge Celtic &m*ery. »

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