Evening Star Newspaper, October 14, 1928, Page 45

Part 2—12 Pages EDITORIAL SECTION he Sunday Star WASHINGTON, D. C, SUNDAY MORNING, . OCTOBER 14, 1928 KELLOGG TREATY DRIVE BEGINS ARMISTICE DAY Speech in New York for Anti-War Pact o BY FREDERIC WILLIAM WILE. will be launched—the fight fer ratification of the international anti-war treaty. other American signed or adhered to the pact. Those which have not yet done one or the other have signified their intention to @0 s0. Altogether they number 57. Only Abyssinia and Iceland are m tne. The campaign for ratification will ¥e opened by the chief author of the mguliilateral pact. Frank B. Kellogg. @ecretary of State. The arena will be Metropolitan Opera House in New brk City. and the date will be a peculiarly appropriate “one—the tenth smpiversary of Armistice day, Novem Mr. Kellogg will speak under ber 11 zrruannnal Friendship ®nan of the meeting will be a distin- guished American Be Followed Ratification auspices of the World Alliance for | The chair- | soldier and Demo- | of.war by Other Talk |argued that if Santo Domingo should | cede a naval base to Russia, the secur- ITHIN a few hours after the | i the United States would be en- smoke of the presidential | 4ingereq, and the United States would battle has cleared a%ay an- | {herefore be justified in using force to campaign | ] prevent the construction of such a base. ny Latin Americans frankly resent any such interpretation. and their re- To date practically | .t . sed if the Sen- S8 the mations t the world have either | Sc0tment will be Increassl | ate makes any interpretation to this ef- fect. This probably explains the delay in adherence by the A B C powers.” The Department of State Is not alarmed by such reports. On the con- trary, it is in possession of assurances that in due course the six remaining | Latin American States will join the lmh?‘r 14 sister republics of the Amer- | icas. which have already declared their | allegiance to the Kellogg pact. Argfl\- |tina is expected to come into line as soon as the new administration at Buenos Aires is a little more firmly established. Favored hy Brazil. Brazil has formally indicated its en- husiastic support of the renunciation- treaty, setting forth that it ®rat, Maj. Henry T. Allen. retired. Who | happens to be in full agreement with gommanded the United States Army ®f occupation on the Rhine, Borah to Speak. { | the basic principles of the Brazilian constitution. Chile is temporarily im- mersed in the Tacna-Arica settlement > w of | Vith Peru, but Secretary Kellogg has | A fortnight later the Seeretary of ;o reason whatever to fear that the | will renew the drive for ratifica- | gontiioPe LB TICN . adherence will of the treaty in a second New| ory address—this time before the an- nual dinner meeting of the Academy of *Political Science. The date is Novem- ber 23. and the occasion will be notable Because Mr. Kellogg will be supported by Senator William Borah of Idaho, chairman of the Senate foreign rela- tions committee. of both addresses will be “The Pres- ervation of Peace: The Case For the Pact.” Like the Armistice day meeting, the Academy of Political Science din- ner will be a bi-partisan affair prosiding officer will be Norman Davis, former Assistant Secretary of the "Treasury and Undersecretary of State in the closing period of the Wilson paministration. A new angle will be introduced into the outlawry-of-war movement by the appearance at the dinner of Roy A. Young, governor of the Pederal Reserve Board. Mr. speak on “Peace and World Although Secretary Kellogg continues to count confidently on Senate ratifica- tien of the “General Pact for the Re- punciation of War”—its officially adopt- ed title—he is aware of certain snags which are being placed in its way. To Senator Borah himself have been at- tributed some intentions of that sort. Mr. Kellogg has every assurance from the foreign relations chairman that, in fact, no resistance whatever will be eficred by Borah. The Idahoan, on the contrary. now renks as_ the chief. supporter of the treaty. He will define his position un- equivocally in his New York address on November 23. Senator Swanson, Dem- ocrat, of Virginia has also pledged -his support. He is the ranking minority member of Borah's cammittee. Another strong adherent is Senator Walsh, Dem- ocrat, of Montana. Ail three of these leaders—Borah. Swanson and Walsh— have had constant access to the diplo- matic developments in connection with the pact and signified their approval of every stage of them. Monroe Doctrine Figures. The latest suggested obstruction to the treaty’s ratification concerns the at- titude of six Latin American countries, which have not vet “adhered” to the pact. They are Argentina. Brazl, Chule, Colombia. Ecuador and Paraguay. The Foreign Policy Association of New York, in a special bulletin dated Octo- der 11, alleges that their objections re- fer to the Monroe Doctrine. “The United States,” the bulletin de- clares, “falled to mention the doctrine during the correspondence leading up to the signature of the treaty. Never- theless, it had been intimated that the State Department regards acts of force under the Monroe doctrine as within the meaning of ‘self-defense’ and not therefore prohibited by the pact. It is | | The general sub.iflct{ not eventually be forthcoming. Ecuadoran government has only re- cently been recognized by the United States, a fact which explains delay in that quarter, No opposition of any sort has been registered at Washington in the names of Colombia and Para- guay. The United States has never raised the Monroe Doctrine question. It did not introduce into the diplomatic ne- gotiations any reference along the lines of the so-called “British Monroe The | poctrine” declaration in connection with _John Bull's “regional” interests, The British, in signifying their willing- ness to sign the treaty. insisted upon its being understood that nothing in it would debar “self-defense” and “protective” measures in certain paris of their empire. They had the Suez Canal region especially in mind. Secre- tary Kellogg did not find it necessary to specify that Uncle Sam regards the Monroe Doctrine a “regional” proposi- tion, because this country holds the doctrine to be so self-evident a self- defense matter that to make a point of it in a multilateral treaty would be superfluous. There is no expectation at the State Department that the Sen- ate will try to write a Monroe Doctrine reservation into the pact before rati- fying it. Russian Stand Enters, There has been - some ®talk about Senator Borah's intentions to insist that Russia’s adherence to the Kellogg | treaty denotes de facto American 1ecognition of the Soviet government. The foreign relations chairman has even been credited with the purpose of putting this formally on record in the Senate. When the intérnational sani- The | i Note.—The Star todar presents the Brst of a series of articles dealing with Mussolini and the operation in Italv of Fascism. At_the request of the Ttalian Rovernment Edward Corsi visited Italy and made a complete survey of the country. its political. ~social. religious and industrial conditions. 'He inter viewed Premier Mussolini at length. and in this article the interview with Mus- solini_is given as the prelude to those articles which follow. ~ Mussolini here states the principles and aspirations of Mr. Corsi in his later articles 5 what _he found te be the ac- The Star. in publisifing this series. does ot commit itself in any way to the conclusions of the author Tn this connection it must be added that Mr. Corsi, director of Haariem House in New York. is -an Italian of prominence in America. He has heen a resident there all his life. is a_zraduate | of Fordham and editor of La Follia. the largest Ttalian weekle in the United States. In his own words he is “neither a Fascist nor_ an anti-Fascist.” and these articles will reflect his own ob- servations. BY EDWARD CORSI. BOUT a week before my inter- view with Mussolini T had a talk with Enrico Ferri. The gray-haired disciple of Lom- broso, who says that he is not a Fascist only because he is too old to be one, discussed the Duce, whom he compared with Caesar, Cromwell and Napoleon, from a physiological standpoint. “All men,” he said, “may be classified into four distinct groups— sanguine, bilious, lymphatic and nerv- ous. Mussolini is a pronounced nervous type. a man of action with an un- usual thyroid gland, which accounts for his phenomenal energy. Moreover, he is a young man, an Italian, and a son of Romagna, with a nervous tem- perament and an impulsiveness which all Romagnoli inherit from their Gallic ancestors.” This description was interesting, but tary convention, to which Russia is a party, was ratified by the Senate in 1926, that body attached a proviso that diplomatic recognition of Russia. only has the knowledge of Borah’s reputed plan, but points out that recognition of foreign governments is exclusively a presiden- | tial, and not a senatorial, affair. Russia is also a signatory of the international postal convention of 1920, to which the United States is a party. Secretary Kellogg declares no American recogni- tion of Russia is implied by her adher- ence to the anti-war pact. Certain opponents of ratification of the anti-war treaty are advocating that it be sidetracked until the Senate has passed the Navy bill for construction of 15 cruisers. The friends of the bill are expecting opposition to it from the ultra-pacifist group on the ground that war having been “renounced” by 57 of the world’s governments, the expendi- ture of hundreds of millions of dollars on new warships is unjustified. (Copyright. 1928.) 'i‘olal Eclipse of Sun on May 9, 1929, Will Be Visible in Philippines | BY WALTER ROBB. A total eclipse of the sun will occur at Manila, May 9, 1929, and the Ham- burg (Germany) Observatory already has arranged Tt is expected in Manila that parties will come from the United States end Europe. Full information was forwarded by Father Miguel Selga, S. J.. director of ihe Philippme Weather Bureau and Manila Observatory. to the astrono- fners meeting in Leyden. Two factors warrant the expense of sending parties, Father Selga says. First, the great probability of clear weather, and sec- ond, the duration of the total eclipse over accessible and convenient observa- tion points. The plane of total eclipse extends across the middle islands of the Philip- pines, the Visayan group, through the tenth and two-thirds of the cleventh degrees of north latitude. On the west- ern coast the duration of the total eclipse over this area will be 3 minutes 54.5 seconds: this jn the vicinity of Dumaran lIsland, Palawan. On the eastern coast at good vantage points the duration will range betweea 3 min- utes 42.3 seconds to 3 minutes 28.7 sec- o to have an observing | party in the Philippines on that date. | other | The longest duration of any! eclipse is only about 7T minutes, and such eclipses are infrequent, even | speaking~ astronomically. There will be places outside the Philippines, in Sumatra and Siam, for example, where the eclipse may also be observed. and while Father Selga is little familiar with the accommoda- tions that may be found there he | thinks some of the foreign partics may choose those points. He believes, how- ever, that all American parties should choose the Philippines, to which end he has prepared the bulietin of informa- tion on living accommodations, sites, etc., appended to his scientific data. “Under no circumstances should astronomers be discouraged from try- ing the eclipse of May 9, 1929, in the Philippines,” he says. He has traced back the weather on May 9 at four convenient observation points during a period of 25 years. The chances are very great that May 9 next year will be dry and clear. The date is prior to the change of the monsoon, and, while at that season of the year there are nearly always some clouds floating about during the day, at the afternoon hour of the eclipse the sky is almost certain to be clear. He selects eastern coast points, fronting the open sea. 1f there are clouds they will be hovering around the mountains to the west Lanada Honors War Dead With Bell Tower in National Parliament at Ottawa Canada’s memorial to her 53.000 sons who died in the Great War the Vie- tory Tower in the Parliament buildings at Ottawa. The tower contains a me- morial chamber and has been given a mighty voice in the form of a carillon comprising 53 bells. The carillon recitals given through- out the Summer months from the “Singing Tower” are becoming re- mnowned, the audiences coming from far and wide. The largest bell of the carillon weighs 22,400 pounds and is 100 inches in diameter. The weight of the smallest bell is 10 pounds and diameter 8 inches. The bells are of exceptionally pure tone and exact tuning. Incidentally, the carillon is a keyboard instrument of gigantic proportions, the sound me- dium beinz the bells, which are ar- renged in chromatic sequence. The keys, little wooden handles at | 2-inch intervals, have a depth of | stroke of about 2 inches. n Smplest possible system 0 descent of the same distance it descends {o strike the bell. The bells are fixed on a wood- en or steel frame. only the clappers moving. Percival Price, the carillonneur, in playing the instrument, strikes the keys with his closed fist. Considerable force is required, especially for the heavier bells. On the lighter bells two notes can be struck with one hand, a span of one or two notes being made between the thumb and four fingers. Price em- ploys his feet to play the heavier bells !k:y means of pedals coupled with the eys. Another feature of the “Singing | Tower” is the clock, located 270 feet above the ground level. The hour is struck upon the largest bell in the carillon. Separate clappers from those of the carillon sound the thimes. The | weight of the clapper which sounds the hour is 560 pounds. the The corner stone of Victory They are | Tower was laid by the Prince of Wales nected tn the bell clappers by the|in 1919 and the earillon was installed wires, the | during the diamond the key gulling the clapper | federation last year. Jubilee of con- { its approval was not to be construed as | Not | State Department no | it fafled to conform with my own im- | BY DONALD DOUGLAS. AIL America! The gang's com- ing back home! 1t is quite a gang, the biggest tourist gang in cabin histor: It is a gang which went tourist third and cabin class rather than flrsr. and second class, which in the last year lost almost as many thousands as the others gained, so that it looks as if the adventurous tourists are going abroad more and more and the solemn gang- sters less and less. The multitudinous numbers may not quite equal those of last year in figures and statistics when this month's totals have been added in, but this is all on account of the American Legion in Paris last Summer and the Rotarians !in Belgium—a special case that does not really offset the count of Americans going abroad not because it is_the proper thing to do but because it is the most exciting thing you possibly can do in the Summer months. They went. Now they are home. Their trip abroad is done. But what a time they did have, to be sure! In the Spring and Summer they went as serious gangs of pilgrims sceking famed cathedrals and music festivals and all holy places, or else as simple adventurers seeking whatever they might find in foreign lands. Now it is Fall and they are coming home. are returning bearing gifts for tho: left behind. Most of all they are re- turning bearing the supreme gift of a remembered experience. Eager o Reach Home. Home. They are so eager, 50 pathet- ically eager to reach home. Alrcady the coasts of adventure lie like dim clouds on the edg of the sea. The holiday and the dream are spent. Why did_thes choose a boat (nat tak 10 long days? What a slow-poke! the way over they chose a on purpose. Now they W time when they can fly ba day. They all had themselves a in Europe, but, thank goodness, it over! They had themselves a time and are so glad to return, but somehow they seem a little worn and sad, and for all their joy at the first sight of land they all seem to listen to an echo in their hearts—the days that are no more! The Schubert Festival in Vienna, the cafes of Pariz, the golden serenity of English meadows. It isn't_ quite as thrilling as the going over. Now every one is coming back to work, which is Great Hosts Who Vi They | bad, or to college, which is worse. On the way over the hours winged with the spaed of the birds. Now they drag with an intolerable dullness. Even if you want to celebrate you have no money. Every one is broke. Every one goes about looking shame-faced and trying to borrow six-bits from every one else who comes looking even more shame-faced and trying to borrow just two-bits from him. In despair they get up a dispirited game of poker at a 5-cent limit, and are afraid to’bet on a flush for fear some one is holding a full house. No one plays deck tennis with the passion of the trip. They have one last thrill; they leave a disterapered game of auction bridge and go on the captain’s bridge and get him to write his name in their book of books. “My Trip Abroad.” His signature is the last word that closes their glorious Summer. At last two days before the ship can dock they receive their cards for the n of their purchases in Europe Ttalian Dietator Explains What Fascism H Mussolini Reveals His Creed Done and MUSSOLINT, pression of the man. Benito Mussolini did not strike me as nervous. fempera- mental and impulsive, though I do not doubt that he is. On the con- trary. he was soft-spoken, slow-moving and rather captions. He had perfect poise. He seemed more like a tired business man deeply preoccupied with his enormous job than the stern, merci- less dictator of the popular faney. To be sure, his large bulging eyes, mas- sive jaw anc pugilistic shoulders be- | spoke energy and strength, but his be- havior was calm, practical and careful. In dress he was rather ordinary. Denies Fascism Is Paternalism. He wore a dark gray suit, soft collar and plain blue tie. He was not shaved. He moved about slowly. thought a great deal and seldom raised his voice above a whisper. Many of my questions he answered with a shrug of the shoul- ders or a characteristic wave of the right hand. He was never excited. the subject of his enemies, which is said and then they get really worried. They come to you as to one older and sadder in experience and say, “Do help me out with my list. It is so puzzling. Must I make an inventory of every article and dare I put down $3 for a pair of shoes that cost $4.352" Well.” you reply, “how much did you spend?” “Oh, about $64. “Then list it all as miscel- laneous!” you exclaim with an air of authority “But won't that get me into trouble?” They ask with a guilty look. Then they pursue officers all aver the place and them if there is any chance of gaining just six hours. The; v want so much to caich the 4:32 for | points West. “Please, Mr. First Mate, is that land to the starboard or is if just a whale?” Then at last they see land and the lights of the city, They feel so near to home then that they get all dressed up in hats and coats and swarm to the decks and watch the towers and roofs and wall of New York go by in a vast panorama as the boat s up the river, In 10 minutes il land. hey Yet the older and more cynical in| all dres: up, even travel never get puffing with a fu when a tug com air of hen mothering an eagle. we aren’t home! Last year our boat was actualiy tied to the dock and we stood for an hour before we were allowed to 1and (the authorities only know why!) and got tired of shouting greetings to the people in the crowd. We stood for | an_hour waving at a girl in A red hat (Alice wired she would wear a red hat), Even | ©Oh, no. | | to be his soft spof. failed to disturb { him. The only time he betrayed a certain impatience was when I described | Pascism as paternalism. This he did { not_like. Otherwise he had an air of | tolerance and understanding. which was | the last thing in the world I had ex- | pected he would display. | The Duce’s cabinet, known as the | chamber of victory, is on the second | floor of the Palazzo Chigi. It is here, in this artistic palace, that the black- | smith’s son and former soapbox orator i receives the numerous callers who come to him from all parts of the world. The l(‘lmmb(‘r is an austere, medieval room at least four times the size of the New | York office. Mussolini’s desk, which is | singularly free of papers, books and other paraphernalia suggesting active work, is at the extreme right hand cor- ner as you enter, about 100 feet from | the door. Directly to the right of it is | a splendid bust of Marcus Aurelius and in the distance a portrait of Austen ! Chamberlin, The Duce meets his call- Home Troup the Tourists it Europe Pathetically Eager to Get Back to U. S. Tanes T BRR Rvrad | and the girl turned out to be some one else’s girl friend At last the gang goes down the plank | and now is sure they are home. Not in | the least! There are the customs, even {if you declared precisely $99.98. they stand by their bags and wait like those on Judgment day with little ‘;‘hanrs of an early entrance to Heaven, | for ' guardian angels who pay no attention to tears, threats and entreaties. “You wait | your turn, son!" So you wait your turn while a woman who stood 14 behind first by telling the sentimental customs man she is the mother of four chil- dren. Equal rights for women! So all the tourists stand chained to their baggage—and then, just when they are so close to home, the thing they have been desiring so completely and uninterruptedly, they forget all about the joys of home and in one com= plex moment of remembrance they re- call their going forth to the golden lands of adventure. Their eves mist with dreams of the last months. They are looking back ks and months to the v shouted: Hail Europe! The gang's all here! Descent Upon Europe. They had descended upon France and England and Italy iike innumer- able Summer locusts, except that they were a very pleasani and profitable plague. They invaded Rome like Goths armed to sack and loot, except that ays It Will Live After Him. So | the customs men are capricious | you in the prescribed line gets through | | ers half way, and as they leave accom- | panies them to the door. Unlike his subordinate, he does not salute Roman- whom the meeting of people has become an ordeal. Speaks of Italians Here as “Foreigners I have mentioned that the Duce looked tired. The fact is is that he many as 14 and 15 hours a day, writes ! all his own speeches, reads the Yarious | reports of his subordinates and keeps | constant. tab on the press. Moreover, he | receives at Viminale, or home office, in the mornings. at his villa in the after- noons and at the Chigi Palace at nights. It is common gossip among newspaper men in Rome that besides directing the activities of his party and government, which include the presidency of the Fascist Grand Council; the command of the militia and seven ministries of state, he still directs the policy of his Popolo d'Ttalia, the Milan newspaper edited by his brother Arnaldo. This vast amount of work is possible only because of the frugal life he leads. He exercises a great deal, shuns all social engage- ments and keeps to a very strict diet. “There is very little I do not know,” he is quoted as saying, “and what I do not. know I soon find out.” Which means that mighty little goes on without him. Coming from New York and bearing an TItalian name, it was natural that I should invite a discussion of the Ital- ians in America. The subject interest- ed him immensely, and it was evident that he knew a great deal about it. He had the highest praise for the “sturdy, laborious immigrants” and again and | again referred to the “priceless contri- (Continued on Fifth Page) they came bearing not swords but gifts of silver and gold coinage in return for trinkets to take home. They were out for a lark and they sang like larks at the heavenly gates of an enraptured and_carefree vacationing. All the way over on the boat they had played childish games with an enormous seriousness and asked the crew childish questions and, over there, they had stared at cathedrals and other queer foreign things with the wide eves of children. They were all children following the Pled Piper to the en- chanted valleys and though many missed the sweet and piercing music and complained about the advantages of Carthage (Mo.) over Paris (France), they'll go back next year. Many were serious and sad and many saw wolves hidden under every waiter's clothing, but for the most part they were really out for a lark, even though at times they never found it. Divided in Two Classes, They went singly or they went in gangs, for you can divide Americans abroad into two classes—those who just go or those who go in arranged and implacable tours wherein they will be in Paris on June 20 and London on ex- actly August 10. and no mistake about it! plans) played all over the deck and tossed pennies to see whether to take in Paris or be taken in by Naples. The gangsters (unless they were very young) at once hired steamer chairs and flop- ped into the chairs and stayed put in the chairs like mummies on daily ex- hibition except during meals. The ad- venturers never hired steamer chairs. They barged about and took any empty chair and got chased out by the rightful owner and cheerfully took iwo other empty chairs. Their plans for the Summer were as indefinite and variable as their chairs. For them it was much more fun to decide on Paris and then go to Nuremberg, or plan a bicyele trip through England and in- | stead fly to Vienna. They could do as 1 they pleased. and they pleased 10 dif- |lerenl things in as many minutes. The settled tourists had no fun on the trip over for the simple reason that | on a ship their every hour wasn't ar- { ranged and thev did nothing or went | nowhere, except at the express order | of their guide, who must feel even more | serious than Noah. Yet his troubles | did not begin before the port of dfs- | embarkation. He didn't have to answer foolish question No. 31416 until he shepherded his lambs through cathe- idrals and picture galleries and palaces and other historic hangovers especially built for the edification of later cen- turies. No, on the ship he had his only vacation, for the captain of the Pinafore and the crew had to answer all the foolish questions, which multiplied to incredible and torrential numbers as the ship neared European land. Can you take 10. or is it 50, cigarettes into England? Can you land with 10 in France? And the good captain and his crew answered every foolish ques- jon with an exemplary and unbeliev- able patience. As you neared land the excifement in- creased to an hilarious pitch. Every one did all the usual things. He collected | the addresses of every one on board. ! “The panic grew on the last night. 2 on official tours started packing + baggage, reading their notehooks o know whether they would be on the Bridge of Sighs at midnight on June 30 (Omemud on Fifth Page) amente. He prefers to shake hands— and his handshake is anything but warm. It is the handshake of one to | vorks as ‘The adventurers (with no settled 'CAMPAIGN UPSETS DEBT . EXPECTATION OF EUROPE f(Joolid,ge'st Frank Separation of Issue BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. T would be impossible to exaggerate the disappointment for Europe of the clear and definite declaration by which President Coolidge replied to Raymond Poincare, ex-President and present premier of France. That Mr. Coolidge should remain fixed in his position, the position which he has maintained at all times, namely, that there was no connection between Ger- man reparations and allied debts to the United States, was not in itself surpris- ing. But that Mr. Coolidge should have chosen, in the midst of the American political campaign, to make such a statement, and that no equally clear and utterly conflicting affirmation should have come from the Democratic candi- date was an unexpected blow. For at the bottom of most Euro- pean minds lies the firm conviction that between the Republican and Dem- ocratic parties in the United States there is a profound difference of prin- ciple in the matter of foreign affairs. tics, it thinks in terms alike of its own interpretation of American events and of the manners and customs of its owri | partisan divisions. It conceives the Democratic_party to be the party of | Woodrow Wilson. still dominated by the conceptions of the late President. 1t believes that a_Democratic victory would restore the Wilsonian principles to vitality. What Europe Expected. It is the European conception that | what was defeated in 1920 was not a personal program of Woodrow Wilson but a policy of his party. It believes, and it continues to believe, therefore, that a return of the Democratic party to power would mean a restoration to vigor of all the Wilsonian policies, among which it includes the purpose to cancel the interallied debts. It is this circumstance which explains the patent fact that all European comment. whether made by public men or con- tained in the press, steadily asserts that nothing can be done in Europe in the matter of disposing of the complicated question of evacuation and reparations, until the United States has voted. In other words. Europe is in this state of mind. It calculates that if Gov. Smith is elected, then it will after March 4 find in Washington an admin- istration which will be prepared to deal with the debt question as it imagines Woodrow Wilson would have dealt with it. On the other hand, it is satisfled that if Mr. Hoover is elected the Cool- idge policy. which it accepts as Repub- lican, will prevail. Hence Europe has consistently believed that nothing could be done before March 4. President Coolidge’s emphatic state- ment and Gov. Smith's equally signifi- cant silence have served to give a new shock to European optimism. Unmis~ takably the two circumstances combine to create the devastating convietion that there is not a Democratic and a Repub~ lican policy in the matter of the can- is an American policy. This American policy. too, is summed up in the word fulfillment. If Democrats and Repub- licans are agreed that the debts must be paid. then there is an end to present | hopes based upon a possible change in | party control in Washington. Sees Mistaken Conception. In my judgment. however, it is a mis- take to believe, as Washington seems to conclude, that once Europe has recog- nized the undoubted fact that the pol- icy of the collection of the debts is na- tional. not. partisan, it will adjustitself to this fact and that France in particu- lar will ratify the Mellon-Berenger agreement and proceed to payment. It is a mistake, too. to conclude that France will ratify as a preliminary step to the substitution of a different time period for payment—that is, for a change in the length of time fixed in the existing agreement. American opinion, both official and unofficial, is just as completely mistaken in the conviction that Europe will pres- ently accept the American view about debts. Nothing of the sort is. in my judgment, within the limits of possibil- ity. On the contrary, while Europe is willing to go on with what it regards as the solemn farce of handing back to the United States the money we lend Ger- many and Germany transfers to our debtors, just as long as we and the Germans ‘are prepared to continue, Eu- rope—the allied nations. France, Italy and Great Britain—does not mean to pay the debts, The fundamental fact about the debt question is that Europe has not yet paid a cent off its own money so far. We { have lent Germa paid her conquerors and she has paid them more than they have paid us. The real problem of debt payments is only posed on that day when there is a settlement of the reparations question in Europe and it becomes clear, as it 1 | When Europe thinks of American poli- | cellation of the debts, but that there | v more than she has | From Reparations and Smith’s Silence Dash Hopes. must, that the allies cannot colleet from Germany enough to pay us. Our European debtors desire to keep the reparations question open just as long as the debt question is not closed and closed to their satisfaction. They wish to put every sort of moral pressure upon us that can be exerted through the reiterated statement that American debt is postponing European recon: struction and reconciliation. They de- sire to put every sort of material pres- sure possible upon us by permitting vast American loans to Germany to pile up, thus raising a division of interest be- tween thes~ who hold private bonds in German concerns and the mass of the American people who, as taxpayers, are | interested in allied payments. When Poincare says that the Prench share of reparations must be sufficient, to discharge French debts to Great | Britain and the United States and leave | France a balance to meet the interest on the bonds issued to pay the costs ‘n! restoring the devastated area, he is | saying_something that can only mean that France will not consent to any reparations settlement until the United States agrees to a debt reduction on a sweeping scale. This i3 the fact be~ cause no one in Europe now believes that any such sum can be collected IrrAm Frrmany. s long as the Poincare policy pre- vails in France—and this policy, like the American debt policy, is not parti- san but national—the reparations ques- tion cannot be settled. Moreover, along- | side of the Poincare policy one must | place that of the Balfour note, which asserts that the British will collect from Germany and from their war-time allies every cent that they have to pay the United States. But this policy is also based upon an essential absurdit because no one believes that Germany can pay enough to provide the funds Britain insists upon having. Some Hopes Are Reduced. Neither the British nor the French— and the Italians are in the same case— expect to get enough from Germany to discharge those debts to the United States which are now regulated by the several debt settlements. The victo- rious allies of the war are already cured of the fantastic expectations which dominated the Paris peace conference. Instead of hoping to get $32,000,000,000 from Ge: ., they are excessively doubtful as to their ability to collect $4,000,000,000. A1~ this sum is hardly half of what ti stand obligated to pay the Uni. States. Moreover, on the German side the:e is a fixed limit. What Germany can pay and transfer across her frontiers is not going to amount to enough to fur- nish the funds to discharge the Amer- ican payments fixed in the settlements to continue for 62 years. Practically, there is nothing doing on the German side of the problem. de- pends upon the American. And since :hls |sf the cm:emnu Europe it not think- ng of accept Ameri conditions hu"n?r nbolishlng them. o ere never has been the weakening on either side of mf lantic. Europe is just as determined not to pay as we are not to cancel. But Europe is perfectly willing to let the situation drag as long as we are putting up the money to meet our debt claims against Europe. It costs Eu rope nothing, it commits Europe nothing, and it leaves the matter o for ultimate adjustment. The sole culty in the situation is that the Ger- mans want their territory evacuated and the French won't agree to evacua- tion until the; t t) adjusted. 'Y get the debt matter Triangular Dispuie Seen. Naturally this angers the Ge: who maintain, not without retwm‘t. it is not their fault that the United States won't take the allled view of the debt question, and, since they are living up to the Dawes plan, there is No reason why Prench troops should linger in Coblenz and Mainz because American officials and American public opinion insist upon debt payments. Actually, therefore, what exists is a triangular dispute. We say that there Is mo connection between debts and reparations, the Germans say that there Is no connection between debts and cvacuation and the allies say that there is only one problem, and that repara- tions, debts and evacuation are tied together beyond all hope of extrication, And so the situation goes on just as # has gone on since t ference. e Paris peace con- Obviously a eri: | to n isis must co; or later. The allies, by them:emn:; | the treaty of Versailles, can't stay on | German soil beyond January 1, 1935, If they can't get the debt matfer ad- justed before that time they will have fo drop the reparations factor and come out into the open. They will have to choose betwee: payment, - 'n repudiation and (Copyrisht. 1028, Economic results of the Porto Rican hurricane will be reflected in an im- portant degree in the foreign trade fig- ures of the United States in the near {future, for in 1927 we bought from Porto ‘Rk‘n $96.902,024 worth of merchandise, and in turn sold to Porto Rico $86.- 318.791 worth, or a total for the year of $183,220.815. It does not follow, of course, that the foreign trade of the United States will be diminished by that amount, for the United States will buy in other coun- | tries what we would have bought in Porto Rico. But on the selling side the loss will be large. because thé pur- chasing power of Porto Rico will be lessened by doubt the disaster, be Credit no extended and buying vet a certain, de- will in the list of trade with our possessions or mnon-contiguous Territories. Hawaii and the Philippines are slightly ahead the United States, Hawaii's total for 1927 having been $188,901,982, and the Philippines $186,504,584. Alaska comes | This fourth with $86,927,958, while the Vir- gin Islands and the Samoan and Guam trade trailed far behind. The larger items of our sales to Porto Rico included: Animals and animal products, edible, $9,838,074; animals and animal products, inedible, $3,990,298; vegetable food products and beverages, $19,175,212; vegetable products, inedi- ble, $4,346.938; textiles, $16,046,785; wood and paper, $5.323.635: non-metal- lic minerals, $4.553.255: metals and manufactur $6.067,058: machinery and vehicles, $7.770,948; chemicals and {related products, $6,428,378; miscella- neous, $2,778.140. | In the foregoing broad classification of American products sold to Porto Rico nearly everything we make is in- N Our trade with Porto Rico ranks third ! of Porto Rico in business dealings with | J: Porto Rican Storm’s Effect Expected To Be Reflected in U. S. Trade Index cluded. for the Americans livin, islands. and the natives as we‘l’l.mw:zi our motor cars, radios and other luxu- ries along with necessities. The item of trucks., busses, passenger cars and motor car accessories in 1927 reached $3.295128. This comes under the heading of machinery and vehicles. What we bought, from Porto Rico in~ cludes fruits and preparations, $6.817.. gz; tqbacco and manufactures, $19,- e .354; cotton and manufactures, $9.- hl?.fifl:.fifl;‘:‘ldb !::dak :Infl skins. straw s. woods, buttons, other commodities. e s item was sugar, of $55,336.712 worth. ited for $1.678,086, and it is reported that the hurricane did especially hey - g€ to the coffee plantations " OM is an enc: pan’s popuumnm serious in this small islanc with its 70,000,000 residents. crease is the first noticed since the present system of taking population statistics was adopted in fg:l coun- In 1927 births to- iry 50 years ago. taled 2,059,364 — 1,048,280 male and 1,011,094 female—a decrease of 45,041 in comparison with that of 1926, which was 2.104,405. The number of deaths last year totaled 1,209,313—621,345 male and 587,968 female—an increase of 48.- 578 over 1926. The increase in RGD\I- lation dunnf the last year was 850,051, The rate of increase was reduced by 93,620, in comparison with that of 1926, due to both increased mortalities and fewer births.