Evening Star Newspaper, June 16, 1931, Page 12

B CB oW IPEXS TOMIRRY 1§6 Farm Boys and Girls Will Occupy Tents on Agriculture Grounds. Fifth National 4-H Club Camp, atiénded by representatives from ' 40 Etages, will open officially tomorrow mofning with the first events pianned on “this year's extensive program, the gznn.ment of Agriculture announced y. The camp, which is located on the rtment of Agriculture grounds, will house 156 farm s and girls chosen to attend the conference bicause of their excellence in 4-H Club activit'es. Each State is represented by two boys and two girls, and the delegates are ac- companied by one or two members of the State extension sta. atures of the gmgnm this year will be addresses by Lieut. Comdr. Charles Rosendahl, commander of the United States Navy dirigible Los Ange- les; Jane Dester Rippin, director of re- search of ths Westchester. County Pub- lishers; Charles F. Jenkins. inventor; Sam Thompson of the Federal Farm Board and Ronick Dunlap, Assistant Secretary of Agriculture. Also educa- tional tours to historic points of inter- ’ est, museums and art galleries have been planned. Evening entertainments will include camp-fire programs * of stunts, games and short plays. On Friday morning Capt. Taylor ‘Branson, leader of ths United States Marins Band, will b installed as an honorary member of the club in recog- nitlon of the special mcathly band pro- grams played for 4-H Ciub members on & national radio hook-up. ACTRESS IS INJURED Others Hurt in Fight in Mexican Theater. GUADALAJARA, Mexico, June 16 (P). —8Several persons were injured, includ- ing Anna Darniers, actress, when the audience and the actors engaged in a fight at the Teatro Principal las. night. The actors tock exception to remarks mage by spectators. Bottles and other missiles were thrown by the combatants, and the disturbance grew so great that the police had to intervene and suspend the show. $475 JEWELRY STOLEN Becond Robbery Reported at Po- liceman’s Home. ‘Theft of an additional $475.50 in jew- elry from the home of Policeman Morris ‘W. Jones, a station clerk at the tenth precinct station, where a $500 ring was reported stolen by a duplicate-key thief last Thursday, was discovered yesterday. Jones lives at 1422 Parkwood place. Births R.eported. The following births kave been reported to the Heaith Department in the last 34 hours: ) d_Margaret 8 ir. Deaths lieporte;i. The following deaths have been reported to She Health Department in the lest 34 nours: Margaret E_O'Brien. 75. 3401 M st mElizabeth A. Merrimdn, 4. Potomac Apart- Ellen Perguson, 74, 3156 18th st. George Lohrer. 70. Garfleld Hospital. Benjamin P. {.lnmi:um, M.Hl'lp P Sibley Hospital. Providence Hospital. hon, 16, Providence Hospital, oAlired Madison. 71 "Home for Ased and ———— The use of poison in the Rome of the emperors was a common method of taking life and wreaking vengeance on an opponent or enemy. Music and Musicians Reviews and News of Capital's Programs. to nt. The '.‘h.ns lu&:flv‘nufl lhlmuc. Tsabel " Bolling wladys Ke‘e’:’mz r!?nt. Miss Bolling show- ing the most talent, with a light, stino,” which suited her tempera- 1 ment well. Gretchen Kier, another coloratura soprano, excelled in reci- ““0‘:” her of M s tiful songs during the evening. She sang the scene and aria from Gou- “Faust,” familiarly kn PICCARD DENIES PLAN FOR 18-MILE ASCENT Stratosphere Balloonist Says Such a Flight by Kipfer Would Be Impossible. By the Associated Press. BRUSSELS, Belgium, June 16.—Prof. Auguste Piccard last night denied a rumor which reached here from Ger- many saying Charles Kipfer, his com- panion on the stratosphere balloon flight, would sattempt another ascent with the hope of reaching an altitude of approximately 18.5 miles. Prof. Piccard raid that such s feat would be impossible, because the bal- loon needed would have to be 1,000 times larger than the balloon in their stratosphere venture. Although the cfficially recognized mark set in their stratosphere nfl.‘?hl was placed at approximately 9.7 miles, they actually olimbed to nearly 10.2 miles, Prof. Piccard said. He explained that the difference was due to an ac- cident which happened while the Swiss Aero Club was testing his barograph. The glass case containing the instru- ment burst under pressure when the recorded altitude was approximately 9.7 miles, and this figure had to be regis- tered because the Swiss Aero Club reg- ulations forbid tests being carried out s second time. Tk Ak ek ko kA § KOHLER of KOHLER OIN the thou- sands who a: refurnishing bal s wi “Metropolitan” Always Insist on “Schafer Quality” Materials E. G. Schafer Co. 4100 Georgia Ave. Telephone ADams 0145 3 lov’s solos were of lighter vein and played with his charac- teristic good tone, rhythm and evhn . He was accompanied by uluél;m mb at '.:1; M&m Mrs. Vir- n- iy ‘accompani- ment for her pupls. K. B. Elmhurst Glee Club To _Give Concert Saturday. 'HE Elmhurst College Glee Club of Elmhurst, I, will give & in Concordia Lutheran Evan- 20, at 8:15 p.m. Three the Elmhurst Gilee Club Washington -and ' received h ticisms the Elmhurst this com- pares very favorably with that of previous seasons. : Low-Fare Outings Fares shown are Round Trip EASTERN STANDARD TIME $1.25 BALTIMORE Al L SRR mh: 'm- and_sold Saturday Week-| xeursions $8.50 NEW YORK Good going every Saturday. il day, Petufaing antl Sundsy G40 P $5.00 NEW YORK . SUNDAYS, June July 12, %6 Lv. Washingten. ... L...12:18 AM. Coaches ready for occu) l:!u:‘?‘l--. MOTOR_ SIGHTSE! G TOURS Uptown, 75¢ Downtown, 8¢ ‘Week-End All-Expense Tour ATLANTIC CITY $11.00 or $12.50 sepip b Pyl s ing. All-Rail Route $8.00 vie Market Sireet Whart et Falng ""'l’ inday_midnight Week-End_Excursion $5.50 ATLANTIC CITY » LT Seneer Sesylog, $4.00 ATLANTIC CITY SUNDAYS. June 21; ll¥ fl‘l" L July 4 15 AM. NDENCE DA L il 12 $3.25 CHESTER $3.00 WILMINGTON SRS 22V, Sl Morning. .50 $10.00 BOSTON, MASS. » New Hi , Conn. 2 R P $6.00 PITTSBURGH SATURDAY, July 11 Lv. Washington ......... 10:30 P.M. $16.80 NIAGARA 16-Day Trivs d Saturdays, Jume 26-27 10-11, 24 July - || Lv. washi —Fridays, 7:08 P.M. Ly. a7s. 54 and_10:40 P.M. Saturdays. 8:40 Mayflower 5-Day Tours HISTORIC NEW ENGLAND $53.71 Covers All Elg:llu Eyery Saturday and Sunday to August 30, except July & itineraries, address: General Pass. Agent, GREAT LAKES CRUISES Every Sunday, July § to ‘.x- 6. ine. 7 DAYS by Rail and Steamer CHICAGO—MACKINAC ISLAND—NIAGARA FALLS BUFFALO All-Expense Rate, $92.00 "0 SEE FLYERS, Eo"llfl-‘l‘ xfiifll All Steel Equipment Pennsylvania Railroad Mid-June Opportunities Special Features for the Warm Weather at Special Prices In the Clearance Sale Fashion Park and Glenbrook Suits $35, $37.50 and $40 Grades i $24.75 $50 and $55 Grades $34.75 $60 and $65 Grades $43.75 . $75 and $80 Grades $59.75 4-Piéce Suits Were $40, $45 and $50 $28.75 Top Coats $35 and $40 Grades $23.75 $45 and $50 Grades $33.75 $65 and $75 Grades $43.75 Sports Ensemble Consisting of Shetland Coat Single or double breast- ed—new tans, grays and browns— $17-50 Striped Flannel Trousers in tones to match T::\ztfs.criCkEt Cloth $8.75 Imported Linen Suits Imported Belgian linen; featured in single and double breasted models. Coat and trousers. Tai- lored our superior way. A very unusual value— at a most unusual price. $13.75 The Mode, F at Eleventh WASHINGTON, D. C. TUESDAY, JUNE . 16;-1931. . " WARNING A most remarkable thing has happened. A record of outstanding—in fact unprece- dented—success in business forecasting is be- ing widely misquoted as a record of failure s Professor Cox writes us: “Apparently rather wide circulation is being given to a sheet cobtaining percentage :{nres imputed to me, showing that a number of well known forecasting services have been wrong in most of their predictions since 1918. This sheet and the newspaper comments based upon it are utterly misleading in two vital respects. “First, as my study emphatically explained, the predictions scored were those which dealt with gemeral business activity and not with stock or bond prices. “In the second place, my study, An Appraisal of American Business Forecasts, published by the University of Chicago Press, showed clearly that the scores I gave were wof percentages. v 7 v “‘The percentage figures which you propose to publish a with the decimal s in that of my stud ws:i::h aj hliles the ;fr‘;:’;?l. dcfinPl:{;B‘ nyad :dey- quacy the general iness forecasts of six organiza- tions (including yours) for the period from January 1921 to December 1929.” How Professor Cox’s carefully compiled figures have been falsified This has been accomplished simply by quoting ss per- centages, fi that were not fiym-mug:— ad never been intended as percentages—figures the true character of which was clearly explained in Professor Cox’s study. One of these tables—a table that sums up an impor- tant part of this study—will serve as an illustration. would show if reported in PERCENTAGES These fignres have been calculated on the basis of Professor Cox’s data and have his approval, as indicated by the letter from him which we are quoting in this . advertisement. Seandard Statistics Company Second organization Fourth organization Fifth organization Sixth organization Average But Professor Cox’s study did not show percentages. These are the figures the study gave —as the study gave them. Not percentages. Simply deci- mals preceded in some instances by a plus ogzmmn ;‘ifir — computed by the us¢ of 2 code which the study y explained. Average Scores for Period from January 1921 to December 1929 Definiteness Corvectness Ad 78% 83% + .66 + .65 + 42 + .51 + .38 «£5 50 Under defimiteness Professor Cox measures the clearness and positiveness with which forecasts are stated. By correctness he means simply the extent to'which forecasts have been fulfilled. is a term Professor Cox uses to express both correctness and definiteness. His actual ratings for adequacy of individual forecasts were in each instance by multiplying the correctness figure by the definiteness figure. o * This table is :de mn:; mess activity m 1921 and December 1929. Even a cursory comparison of these tables brings out clearly the utterly false and misleading character of the ganda: that presents Professor Cox’s decimal indi- cations for corectmess and of forecasts as per- centages. His figures for definiteness alone remain the same when expressed as percentages. of all forecasts of gemeral busi- agencies between January STANDARD STATISTICS COMPANY, INC. ~345 HUDSON ST. - NEW YORK 3 ] } Organized 23 years sgo to distribute business and investment information to reinforce the subject of general interest. - « Cincinnati - Clevelond - Doreit - Grand Repids « Las Angeles - Lowisville < Milwashes Misnaspolis « NewOrlvons « Philadsipbia . Pitsshurgh - St. Lo « San Franciss « Soattls - Londen - Momtreal - Paris - Toroms chnmv Professor Gatfield V. Cox, of the University of Chicago, prepared a careful, scholarly study of the fore- casting records of six organizations. Four of these (including the Standard Statistics Company) are statistical service organi- zations, one an educational organization, one a large bank. Expressed jn percentages (sce item#), this study would indicate the following appraisal of the long-term record of general business forecasts of the Standard Statistics Company: Correctness Definiteness ~ Adequacy 83% 78% 76% This appraisal was so favorable to the Standard Statistics Company that we had considered using it in our advertising and had refrained simply because we considered it bad taste to do so. We have been compelled to change our position, by a widespread misuse to which these findings have been put. Part of this false propaganda is coming from dealers in secur- ities of doubtful metit who have found their sales hampered by the disinterested advice of competent statistical agencics. Part of it doubtless comes from salesmen of thoroughly reputable houses, who have not taken pains to investigate the accuracy of statements they are quoting. And it is only fair . to say right here that the great majority of reputable houses, y 11g g cp or their salesmen, have had nothing to do with this false propaganda. If you are approached by a security salesman who cites the results of this analysis as a reason why you should not take the services of statistical agencies—and then shows you figures that differ widely from €——these—you will know that his statement is false. You can decide whether he has simply been misinformed —or is deliberately endeavoring to discredit statistical agen- cies that probably would not recommend securities he has for sale. For over a quarter of a century the Standard Statistics Company has had “nothing to sell but service”. It has grown from a2 small organization to onc with more than 1200 em- ployees, engaged solely in collecting, preparing, analyzing, and distributing investment information, and in giving counsel, to tens of thousands of clients throughout the world. It did not grow to be the world’s largest statistical and investment advisory organization by giving inaccurate in- formation and unsound advice. Rather its growth may be attributed to the fact that it has conscientiously — and successfully — endeavored to fumnish reliable information and advice which, while by no means devoid of error, is right far more often that it is wrong—right, we belicve, even more often than the figures quoted here would indicate. A booklet we have just prepared treats with the increas- ingly important part scientific forecasting is playing in the business life of this nation. It indicates bricfly the methods this organization is using in dealing with this inescapable aspect of every business executive’s present-day problems. STANDARD STATISTICS CO., Inc., Dept. 156, 345 Hudson Street, N Y. You may send me your booklet, “’A Forecaster’s View of Farecasting™*, without charge’or obligation. Name Address. City or State. L———-——-—-—-——-——-—-—’—t— WORLD