Evening Star Newspaper, May 10, 1931, Page 25

Editorial ‘ Page Part 2—8 Pages EDITORIAL SECTION he Sundiy Star. WASHINGTON, D. (., SUNDAY MORNING, MAY 10, 1931 Special Articles EUROPEANS SEE SPANISH REVOLT AS BL OW TO TRADE Upheaval Held Chance for Reds to Gain| Foothold—Nervous Neighbors Waiting and Watching. BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. ARIS.—The first weeks of the Spanish revolution have pro- duced both dramatic and grave repercussions here, Two streams of Spanish have flowed through the French capital. Trains crowded with homeward-bound exiles of the Zut. departing from the Orleans station, have almost crossed with those bringing to Paris the royal fugitives and their devoted followers. Republican and roy- nlist, the former triumphant, the latter despondent, have supplied an impressive human-interest detail. Two hundred and thirty-one years ago Louis XIV decreed that the Pyrenees had ceased H -European consultations, of | n | Shaass: s activities. And yet, | | League of Nation: seen from within, in an; perhaps Paris, viewed in the light in which all Europeans of all countries see it, the old continent is in full crisis and the area of ltl!"ism'der. far from diminish- ing, is gaining. !I‘he s;:ct t’hat in another country government has broken down, that a traditional and long established system has collapsed, that new men and new conceptions are to replace the old, the inescapable conclusion that at best transition must be marked with both economic and political disarray there- y capital save | ; They Lost Their Thrones Famil BY C. PATRICK THOMPSON. O .the considerable family of crownless ki which lost & member when Carol regained his throne, has its numbers restored again by the arrival in its bosom of a new member—the tall, lean Alfonso XIII of Spain (and some still say there is no evil portent in that number). It is an oddly assorted family—a family of all shapes, sizes and tints, ranging from a philosophical young Chinese by way of a gloomy and stout- ening Afghan to an embittered Hun- garian woman and a smiling and chubby | Portuguese. R But not entirely an unhappy family, fore accentuates European anxiety. The republican majority in France and the| | to exist, and undertook to place his|yapor faction in Britain may publicly grandson on the Spanish throne. NoW | celebrate the flight of Alfonso, but as a the last of the Bourbons has taken|practical matter both are face to face refuge in France of the Third Republic. | with the dead certainty that the Span-| French feelings about the change in |ish revolution means an increase in Bpain have, however, been tempered by | domestic unemployment in both coun- very grave apprehensions as to the ultl- | ries. mate effect of the upheaval. Europe, ’ o to the French mind, is now in actual Italy Sees Blow to Prestige. e danger of &_wide-swinging Communist | _Italy, on the other hand. must se movement. The Russian revolution of |in the collapse of dictatorship in Spa ni 1917, after a brief stage of republican- a direct blow to the prestige of Fascist | ism, degenerated into Bolshevism, which | dictatorship, precisely as it cclebrated | has'ever since remained dominant. The | the arrival of Primo de Rivera in Spain Hungarian revolution passed throush :n::::l y:;r:h:arlt t.:i;u:nd:?z?frrx\ec: of : the same stage, and only after incredi. | spread of the Timtan Sotruss,, That | among the sporting nobility and ari ble suffering and misery was the red reign of Bela Kuhn terminated. Even the German revolution missed only by & hair’s breadth a similar, fate. At the moment all European coun- tries, in varying degrees, to be sure, are suffering from an economic crisis of unparalleled proportions. Econom- jeally and politically France is least shaken, Politically, Italy, with its strong dictator, has so far weathered the economic strain with success. Ger- many, by contrast, is economically in a critical condition, and politically living under a state of martial law. More- over, beyond any doubt, Communism is gaining ground in Germany (Berlin it- self was carried by the Reds last year), though this gain is in part balanced by a decline in the extreme Nationalist camp. If you look over the map of Europe, you will discover that on - Continent ali governments are being subjected to a severe strain; that what seems to be taking place is, in the jug ent of the calmest and most objective of observers, a crisis in the whole capitalistic civili- zation. The Winter which has just passed has been marked by extreme suffering in many places on the Conti- nent, and this extreme suffering has only been kept within tolerable limits by employment of treasury funds, re- :’u!ll,l;[ in appalling deficits now to be aced. ‘When one turns from the Continent to Britain, even if Communism has made no greater progress than in France, there has been an economic disintegration which cannot be mis- ::uln. Q(ore g\;n 2.50bflfilz:wh:hnlly un- ployed are today public charges, and the trade reports for the first quarter of the current vear have shown un- precedented declines. As in Germany, there is no of even material seasonal relief. In the judgment of Covety i Europe e ab sesns povthoned Tope is at leas ne beyond the present year. T Now in this situation the European merves are particularly sensitive to any new disturbances. That in part ex- plains why the recent discussion over :l:e o:c“:tmm n{‘m union took on and even a passion- ate tone. It explains in part the ap- parent collapse of the Franco-Italian naval agreement, which promised, at least on the moral side, to supply a nec- essary and long desired relief. Revolution in Spain—and in Portugal as well—while it' naturally has no wide political importance, does mean that there is real danger that a relatively large area of Europe, with more than 30,000,000 inhabitants, may now and for an indefinite time, become the field of domestic strife. This must remove tation to the restless and dlfilb‘sfled‘ | Socialists of Poland goes without saying. | The American who over his break-| fast table lays down his newspaper and | | exclaims, “Well, another king in the | discard,” naturally sces the event as one more of the, to him, lnevltnble‘ steps in the spread of that republican idea which is dear and familiar to citi- zens of the United States. The Euro- pean, on the other hand, whether a re- publican or a monarchist, a progressive or a nationalist, just as naturally iden- tifies the event as & new extension of the area of disorder in his own gravely smitten continent, and thus as some- thing which can serlously affect his own circumstances. In contemporary Europe it is the politics, the international relations, that one hears most about in the press and in casual conversations, but it is the economic and social conditions which fill the minds of thoughtful people to a far greater extent. Thus, while from a distance one has the picture of solidly constituted states, such as existed before 1914, quarreling over the old familiar questions of power, prestige and terri- tory, the truth is that, aside from France, there is today no European state so solidly established both eco- nomically and politically that it could seriously think of an international conflict. Eurcpe has lived through a hard | ‘Winter, an incredibly hard Winter, sus- tained by the hope of recovery in the Spring. That recovery has not -come. Unemployment in Germany on’ propor- tions vaster than the British tends to become permanent. No country save Britain has the financial resources to carry such a burden. . Germany, sub- stantially without reserves, must have loans to exist. These loans do not promise to bring about recovery; rather at most they serve to lay temporarily the shadow of red revolution. Soviet Stock Takes Big Fall. Moreover, Russia is always in the background of all minds. When as be- tween 1926 and 1929 there was measur- able recovery in Europe generally and in Germany in particular, the Soviet stock fell tremendously. Bolshevism, instead of being a propaganda of pros- perity and happiness, became in the minds of the workingmen of all coun-| tries the doctrine of hunger and misery. | The Soviet game seemed up even as | recently as 1929, when the Young plan | was adopted and the French evacuation of the Rhine was assured. But since the “economic blizzard” hit Europe the reverss process has been in | progress. Soviet propaganda again ob- | tains willing hearers among the millions !of unemployed and miserable every- The struggle between the ele- | more flamboyant side of Mayfair en: both Spain and Portugal from the num- | where. ber of available European markcts, a ments of order and disorder, between circumstance important for both Ger-|law and red anarchy, has been resumed. many and Britain, as well as Prance, | Prosperous capitalism does not now and may serve to provide fresh encour- , fearlessly invite comparison with starv- bereft of consolations and eating its royal heart out. Alfonso, for instance, adaptable and resilient, ‘will not look so sad after he has got over the first | shock of the Spanish landslide. Alfonso has cultivated other interests | in life besides those which appertained to his existence as a semi-absolute sov- ereign. He has made good friends | s- | ‘ceratic bon viveurs of England and | France. He has been coming over to the {sland in the North Sea.for many | seasons now to visit the capital, g0 | racing and stalk deer over the domains | of the Scottish Duke of Sutherland, | whose tall duchess is one of the best | shots in England and plays the trap drum in a private jazz band of her own. Alfonso shoots, fishes, plays polo with abandon and is a crack motorist with a preference for racing cars. Interested in Cattle Breeding. He likes witty talk and well chosen little dinners, and knows where to find both in half a dozen capitals. He likes the life of Deauville and Cannes. He is at home in at least three of the many worlds of Paris. And he has always been keenly interested in cattle breeding and farming and horses. | Should Alfonso desire the company of other deposed monarchs in England, he can find ex-King Manuel of Por- tugal and his charming queen, and ex- King George of Greece. Manuel has fitted himself smoothly into the Eng- lish social picture during his 20 years of residence. He has a picturesque mansion in extensive grounds near t) Thames at Twickenham, and both hi and his queen have associated them- selves with lawn tennis until no club or private tennis party in the high world is complete without them, while at the Wimbledon tournaments he is as familiar a figure as Tilden or Helen Wills. ; They live the lives of English aris-| tocrats of the modest and rather old- fashioned type—no cocktail parties; no cabaret dinners; no association with the tertaining: no haunting of the smarter restaurants and theaters. You don't find them in the Embassy Club or out with the fashionable hunts. Occasion- ally they dine or lunch with King George and Queen Mary. Most Win- ters they seek the sun on the Riviera, but never go into the casino to play. One way and another, exile seems ~Decoration by J. Scott Willlams. | have quieted down Manuel, whose down- | In Coburg is the old man, whitz-bearded, | fall was not disassociated with the pub- noticeably long-nosed, who was once | lic accusation in Lisbon that he had | Czar of Bulgaria and the supplest diplo- hung the price of a torpedo boat around | mat—after the disappearance of Abdul | the pretty neck of a French dancer, now dead, although in fairness of Manuel it # must be said that his friends always | declared there was nothing in that a: |fair and that an incident had been | maliciously exaggerated by the Car- bonaria, the secret society which had permeated every institution of the mon- archy and which brought about the revolution of 1910. George of Greece, & much younger man and an exile since 1923, likes the smart side of London and Paris life. In London he is often around the fash- ionable restaurants and dancing places, and a good deal in evidence at charity balls. Tried English hostesses who have tied up their social prestige with the success of one of the big charity balls of the year find the tanned, athletic, English-looking son-in-law of Queen Marie of Rumania a considerable asset. Hopes for Recall to Throne. He has not yet acquired a house in | England, probably because he is firmly | convinced that a turn in the tide of Greek politics at any time may bring a recall to the throne he had to vacate at short notice. In town he usually stays with his wife at an old-fashioned private hotel in Mayfair; and in Paris, 100, he is & bird of passage. He is a man of some culture and not long ago caused some stir by going down to Ox- ford for a debatz on the Tespective merits of the athletic and the esthetic, | the Damned of Turkey—in Europe. i‘ An absolute sovereign of his kingdom, he feathered his nest richly, and it has | always been supposed that wher he fled | he took with him the major poition of a fortune estimated at around $50,000,- 1000. But he lives modestly, gives noth- |ing away and is said to have declined | to ald Boris of Bulgaria when it was | brought to his notice that his unfortu- nate young successor had only a bare | $35,000 & year on which to keep up the state of kingship. He was always & trifle eccentric, and few months pass now without some new story about him going the rounds. Rupprecht, head of the House of Wittelsbach and regarded by Bavarian nts and his own entourage as the King of Bavaria and ihe possile em- peror of a Germany cured of its re- publican malady, lives with his aunt, | Princess Arnulf of Bavaria, and his | children in his castle in Berchiesgaden, through the tall windows of which one sees mountains topped vith snow that |never melts. He is a tall, handsome man with gray hair parted in the mid- | dle, a gray mustache, penetrating eves, an active mind and views upon the sub- ject of European affairs shich from time to time he enunciates with vigor. Dresses in Civilian Clothes. He has tact. He eschews military | uniform and dresses in civilian clothes, and although he might assert his claim | of Former Monarchs Large and Varied—Many Scheme to Regain Lost Prestige. revolution which sent two dozen Ge man thrones toppling. He has considerable faith in an eventual restoration in Bavaria, if not in federalized Germany. Meantime, hc waits, takes precedence over the head of the Bavarian state whenever the two appear together in the same place, ram- bles in the Bavarian mountains and digs about his huge old castle for hidden antiquities. ‘The ex-Kaiser doubtless thinks with envy of the relative freedom of his sons, especlally of Little Willie, in the first flush of the revolution as unpopu- lar as his father, but now going freely with his wife and their three children, without guards, at his castle at Oels, in Silesia. Wilhelm maintains the strict eti- | quette of the Prussian court in his fastness behind his screen of trees, |walls and barbed wire at Doorn. This | disgraced and humiliated man has man- | aged to rescue some part of his gigantic | private fortune, and his income, sup- | plemented by 'the revenues from his | wite's great Silesian estates, is suffi- | clent to relieve him from the sort of | financial cares which beset, for example, | the heads of the Hapsburg house which | crashed along with the Hohenzollern. How does this man, who was so ner- vously restless and active and who lived |in great state between a score of castles’ |and palaces and meddled with every- | thing and had a finger in every pie— how does he occupy himself on his 20- acre estate, with its 25-room mansion? Studies Newspaper Clippings. He walks in his little park. He reads. | He studies the cuttings of newspapers | carefully garnered and sent to him. He sits_long over dinner with the “Queen of Prussia,” his occasional monarchist guests and his two permanent equerries. He visits the school room where his wife's_children—she brought him five step-children on marriage—study under the supervision of a governess. He writes, standing, for the most part— by his doctor's advice—at a special desk. He fells trees and saws them up for exercise. His hair and beard are white now, his skin is well colored, but he looks aged and ravished, and in his shadowed and sunken eyes there is an expression at once defiant and hunted. He is the only one of the crownless | monarchs who dare not leave the sanc- tuary to which he fled when his people | rose” and his throne was pulled from under him. In a {ittle chateau in the warm Pro- vencal plain lives a quiet woman who was once a queen and a boy for whom kingship is still claimed by a small | body of partisans. The Queen. is ‘her | majesty of Montenegro, the tiny coun- try which after the war was incor- porated in the kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes (Yugoslavia) by a decision of the Paris peacemakers. But a separate party remains in be- about Berlin and living comfortably | 1932 ELECTION OUTCOME " HINGES ON END OF SLUMP Observers Who Consider Present Trade Stagnation a Depression in Ordinary Sense Think Worst is Over. |think that some college professors see A good deal that does not exist. But it is not only in the colleges. At meetings of business men, at the meeting of the United States Chamber of Commerce last week, for example, the idea was brought forward. Perhaps I can best suggest the thing that is asserted by going to a book recently published. It was written by the dean of the Harvard School of Business Administration, Wallace Brett Donham. Let not the reader be warned from credibility by this association with academic circles. The Harvard School of Business Administration is a very orthodox and conservative institutiol It was founded by the late George F. Baker, the oldest active banker in New BY MARK SULLIVA! E may put the Republican Presi dent Hoover will be renomi- | nated. As to the renomina- tion some interesting things ones. In any event, that is not the purpose of the present article. The question is, just how valuable is the Mr. Hoover will be renominated, will | the Republicans win the election? That is the real-question. wholly—on how long this business de- pression lasts. If this depression should be still under way, in part or in whole, situation this way: could be said, but hardly any important Republican nomination? Granting that ‘The answer depends chiefly—almost on November 8, 1932, the depression will be_the chief issue. That is not the right way to phrase it. though it usually is phrased that way. “The issue will be prosperity,” say Republican leaders and Democratic leaders alike. Prosperity is not an jssue. On the contrary, prosperity is the one thing that is not an issue, the one thing that everybody agrees is | wanting. ~ What is meant is that if | the present lack of prosperity continues | until Jate next year, and if it is to the | front of men’s troubled minds as much | on election day as it is now, in that event men will vote with business con- ditions in their minds—and a good many of them will vote against the Re- publicans. In that sense prosperity or | the depression, hever way _you be the | choose to put it, will condition determining the election. Length of Slump Is Question. So the question becomes, how long is this depression going to last? Shall we have prosperity by November, 19327 York City, and perhaps the richest, cer- tainly one of the most orthodox. What tion teaches is actual busi- ng and selling and dealing. > other departments of Har- the school is much too “hardboiled” to have a place beneath academic elms. And the dean of the school, the writer of this book, Mr Donham, is experienced and successful in business, law and finance—a director of mining corporations and public utilities and savings banks. Mr. Donham calls his book by a warning title, ‘Business Adrift.” An idea of its contents can be conveniently gathered from a summary written by Richard J. Walsh in the form of an exceptionally serious and earnest edi- torial in—of all places—the periodical Judge. “America.” says Mr. Walsh, “needs a | Plan(capital “P"). 'So much is now | generally " accepted. For months the economists have been crying for some | conscious control of our social trend. With gratifying promptness we are think | Not necessarily complete prosperity as!passing into the phase of actually try- | we had it in 1928; it isn't indispensable ' ing to make a start toward a plan. that we get that far back in order to |Dean Donham of the Harvard School get depression out of the voters’ minds. | of Business Administration has done an But shall we have by November, 1932, | important job in his book ‘America & pleasant sense of rising sap in the | Adrift.’ It ought to give us a start in business tree? Will those curves and | the right direction. ‘Unless greater graphs and diagrams about production | stability is achieved’ he urges, ‘it is and prices and wages and profits which | doubtful whether capitalistic civiliza- we see in all the newspapers, and which ‘ tion can long endure. The lack of & have been turning grimly downward plan is largely responsible for our pres- for some 20 months—will they by No- cnt difficulties’ We must, says Mr, vember, 1932, be rising gently upward | Donham, as a safe business policy, toward the sun of prosperity? And so assume that the Russian Soviet plans we are back to the fundamental ques- | for the next 5, 10 and 15 years will ‘tlon l:ld:c%l;;xdlhe 1’732 Ze]e{:!lm"h—l‘n‘mv | succeed.” | long will tl epression last? | (Before answering that there is one | _ Most Authors Mention Russia. other point. If we are back on our In citing Mr. Donham I have mini- | way toward prosperity by November 8, | mized the situation, for he is, so to 11932, then business conditions will not | speak, decidedly one of the less revo- be in the voters’ minds as they go to |lutionary of those who assert with in- the polls. If business conditions are tense ccnwiction that either we must not in their minds. something else will |adopt a certain amount of the collec- be. The “something clse” would be tivism with which Russia is experi- | pretty certain to be prohibition.) | How long will this depression last? | As to that, there is in the air about us menting, or if we do not we are bound downward for a long period—bound, in- deed, not merely toward the prolong: tion of business depression, but toward | t salty and erudite | ‘s.anl?tr?;mn‘ S | to the title of de jure king, he continues | in8. and periodically bombards the press | Living quiétly among lLis flowers and to butterfiies in a beautiful walled villa | to designate himself Crown Prince, title that was his at the time of the the | and the foreign offices with demands for | ™" (Continued on Fourth P: Geneva Fears Explosion Conditions Are Ripe for Great Upheaval During Forthcoming Sessions of the League of Nations. BY FRANCIS MANSFIELD. ENEVA.—Much like those who g0 to the circus with the lurking hope of seeing the lions maul the lon-tamer, some attend the sessions of the League of Nations here anticipat- ing witnessing an explosion that wlll] wreck the League, covenant and all. In recent years the explosion has been announced for each successive session, but when the time came no one dared light the match—so now | agement for Communist agitators all over the continent. Tendency Away From Normalcy. Patently the supreme need of Europe 15 to get back to some form of normalcy, not only in foreign but in domestic af- fairs. But for the past. two years all the tendency in both fields has been quite the opposite. Under the strain of the economic crisis the German re- public has drifted into a form of dicta- torship of the moderate elements as the sole escape from a dictatorship of the violent. Poland is under the absolute domination of a soldier, Mussolini has made good his sway. But at the other end of Europe both the Spanish and dPottugum dictatorships have broken lown. On the surface, seen from & distance, Europe must seem to be going on in about its traditional way. The Franco- German and the Franco-Italian inci- dents serve to recall all the old pre-war ing Sovietism. All of which amounts to saying that |the Spanish revolution has in some | measure constituted a fresh shock to sorely strained European nerves. If | the revolution of Spain can carry it off with success and, above all, without | disorders at home, which must have grave economic and political repercus- sions beyond their borders, the event | may later be celebrated abroad, as it is | now being celebrated in Madrid. But, |in th: historic words of Asquith, which were not without evil omen, Europe will | now “wait and see.” | And in the present circumstances one | cannot fail to recall the totally differ- | ent repercussion all over the planet when the latest King before Alfonso took the road into exile and made way for democracy. Willlam II's flight was halled as a victory for liberty. Thirteen years later Alfonso’s departure leaves the world in doubt as to whether the triumph 1is for liberty or anarchy. It memories and methods. Over against | takes more time than one expected, this such incidents are to be set the con- tinued talk of disarmament conferences, making the world safe for democracy. ’ (Copyright, 1931) Bootlegging Bread To France Is Profitable Occupation BRUSSELS.—Bootlegging bread ome of the profitable, if tions along the Franco-Belgian frontier. Belgium does not exact a duty on wheat or ur, whereas France not only has a high duty but requires the use of home- grown wheat to the extent of 90 per cent. Bread is cheap in Belgium and expensive in France, so bootleggers find it worthwhile to smuggle bread over the line. Bread takes up a lot of room and is hard to conceal, but the bread boot- Jeggers find a way. There is another form of minor bread bootlegging which officials see but do not prevent. This is is done by the thousands of Belgian | workmen who commute to France. ‘These workmen take their bread and wine with them, but they do not have as voracious appetites as the size of the « dinner pails would indicate, for a loaf or two is often brought along for a French L and low cost of production. This policy of tarift for revenue only has proved wise for Belgium. The world crisis is just beginning to be felt here and the Prospects are Belgium will be over the worst of it as soon as any other country. Last year was not a bad year for | Belgium. As compared to 1929 imports fell off about 73 per cent in volume and over 10 per cent in value. Exports decreased about 8 per cent in volu and about 16 per cent in value. Bel- gium imported considerably less ra material and also exported less Taw mi terial, half finished, and finished goods during 1930 than di 1929. Belgian colonies are conside; as foreign in official figures on imports and exports, and this explains some of the unfavor- cle balance of trade, as huge quantities illegal, occupa- | me | Belgium, but the drive back to normal From Belgium | | 0f raw materials are imported from the | Kongo without any corresponding | amount of goods being sold in Africa. Trade with Prance was unfavorable dur- ing 1929, but during 1930 the balance was in favor of Belgium. Belgium buys | now almost as much of Gerpany as of France, but exports to Germany are comparatively low. Prospects for 1931 are not so bright. | Coal, iron, textiles, all seem in a bad way, with no signs of improvement. Belgians are fortunate in having low tariffs. They are in a position to profit immediately by lower commodity prices. The cost of living is going down, and this has influenced the government to decrease wages of employes by 6 per cent. Retall prices are not falling as rapidly as the wholesale index, but they are falling. A bad feature and one that is holding up the cost of production, is the increase of social c es under socialistic government leadership. It is estimated the tax levied on wages for social charges has already removed the margin in labor costs as compared with Great Britain. This has about nullified the removal of duty on gloves entering Great Britain. Employers also complain that workers now show the lack of a stimulus to work and save. They claim efficiency is going down. All traces of currency inflation and reform have not been removed in is making headway. The country is certain to return eventually to its old status as a low wage, low price, low cost of production country. Bread, the main staple for workmen, costs only 2Ys cents per pound. This is one-half the price in France and explains the bread bootlegging across the frontier, (Copyright, 1931.) A those seeking & pyrotechnic display set | their hopes on spontaneous combustion. | Will the explosion come within the | next fortnight? There is an ample | stock of explosives collected. but who | is going to set the match? Failing | such, will the spark come from the conflicting elements? Staked on Compromise. ‘The League has been staking its ex: istence on compromise and postpone- ment, which is tantamount to storing dynamite in the cellar near gas pij and electric wires. Over this cel committee which controls Austria’s financial rehabilitation meets on May 12, the commission studying the Euro- pean union meets on May 15 and the League meets on May 18. In each case the agenda is on economic considerations, but in each case the specter of politics looms behind. Hitherto Geneva has been trying hard to convinee itself that the two can be separated, but after each attempt at self-deception hard facts come forward to prove the contrary. When the match is set to the powder magazine it will be politics that sets it. The chances of spontaneous com- bustion appear rather remote on this occasion. As one delegate put it to the writer, one can't get a spark by striking steel on a sponge. On one side there is the consistent German policy which has been built up since the Versailles treaty. On the other side there is an improvised Utopian scheme to create a European union. What Germans Will Say. The Germans do not conceal the | fact that they are going to say: “The treaty is unjust. Each year brings further prcof of this. We are being crushed under the burden of repara- tions. When we try to work out our own salvation we are faced by objec- tions. Today we suggest a customs union with Austria in order to try to meet our obligations. You object. Yet Austria is willing and Hungary, Ru- mania, Jugoslavia and perhaps others seem to think there is something in the idea. If this is not permitted, you must help us. Otherwise ruined. We must modify the Young plan, must have a moratorium or must obtain credits. Why not make mittel- Europe fit in with pan-Europe?” In the other camp France is the spokesman, with Czechoslovakia her chief supporter. France has not yet revealed her complete sabeme, but it is kriown to be based on bringing the industrial lion and the agrarian lamb to eat from the same manger and to call for much expert study before it will be cohesive. Are Hesitant Onlookers. Great Britain and Italy stand as onlookers, rather hesitant ones, for they know economic problems today cannot be restricted to one continent, and when it comes to a reduction of debts, the granting of credits and limiting of exports, America will have something to say. In view of the present appear- ance of the rival schemes, observers here see further compromises and fur- pipes llar the | ther postponements as a result of the Icomln[ sessions. But even the most optimistic can- I not overlook the fact that compromise !the store of dynamite in the Geneva | cellar, ' (Copyright, 1931.) SITUATION LIKE THAT OF 1912, Geneva Sessions fo Be Surrounded by Uncertainty. BY WILLIAM BIRD. ARIS, May 9.—Should war break out tomOrrow or next year, people will look back upon the events of today and say that these events clearly foreshad- owed it, just as the events in Europe in 1912 and-1913 are now regarded as | plainly forecasting war in 1914. France then was torn apart over for- | eign policy. Then Germany was tight- |ening the bonds of alliance with | Austria and sceking to extend her in- fluence in the Balkans. Today Germany | and postponement are only adding to |and Austria openly declare their desire | to unite in a far closer tie than bound them in 1914 and Germany has practi- | cally wrecked France's friendship with Rumania and come near destroying the Little Entente, which was designed to | prevent forever another attempt to | create a “Mittel Europa.” Italy then, as now, was sitting on the fence wait- ing to see which combination would offer her greater advantages. Two ele- | ments, however, have changed. Russia is no longer France's ally, but her po- | tential enemy. Secondly, the League of | Nations has been created to arbitrate | disputes. Are Changes Sufficient? Are these changes sufficient to guar- antee that history will not repeat itself and that the situation which led to- MOSCOW .—Palestine’s most serious competitor in the establishment of a Jewish homeland is the Jewish agricul- tural and industrial colony at Biro- bidjan, in the Ukraine, where 3,000 Jewish settlers are at work. Expansion of the colony to the extent of 50,000 settlers by 1933 was forecast by I Paikin, the“colony's chief agricul- | tural expert, on the eve of his departure for the United States, where he will study the mechanization of soy bean culture. Paikin's forecast is in line with the views expressed by M. 1. Kalinin, presi- dent of the Executive Committee of the Soviet Union, at last November's meet~ ing of Ozet, the Jewish Relief Society, | when he declared that if the Jewish population at Birobidjan increased there was nothing to prevent the estab- lishment there of a Jewish republic within a few years. Twice the Size of Beigium. The settlement, which in the past three years has expanded to an acreage twice the size of Belgium, was declared | by Paikin to be one of several answers to the problem of crowded Jewish ghetto towns in the Ukraine and White Russia which were left as a legacy of ‘Birobidjan is situated some nine days’ journey from Moscow, 172 kilometers before the Transsiberian train reaches Habarovsk. Here, bounded on the north by the rallroad and on the south by the Amur River, four former rayons (town- ships) were thrown together into one. Later a forest region north ‘of the rail- road, comprising 7,500,000 new acres and inhabited by forest-living natives, was A The western part of the colony is the | Kinghan Range, where rich iron deposits forecast the establishment of metal works in the near future. oT the north are woods replete with game, fish and timber. ‘The south contains farm land along the Amur River. State Farms Flourishing. Several state farms and four collective farms are already flourishing in the colony. Scouts have been sent out to find new settlers from the small Jewish towns in the Ukraine. As an induce- ment for Jews who wish to settle in the ¢ .. Palestine Has Russian Competitor; Soviet Financing Homeland in Ukraine colony the government offers to pay their rallroad fare to those who want jobs on state farms. Those eager to become affiliated with the collectives are given a government loan of 2,000 rubles, Among the farms already established, according to Paikin, is the grain farm, one of the many farms of the Grain Trust. This year the farm is sowing 37,000 acres, of which 10,000 acres are planted with soy beans. There is a farm of the Cattle Trust, with 1,800 head of cattle ranging 160,000 acres. This number is expected to be increased to 50,000 by the end of the current year. ‘There is also a rice farm, which sowed 170 acres last vear, and is plan- ning the sowing of 1,250 acres this year. A chicken farm, with an incubator capable of hatching 32,000 chickens at one time, has just been opened. in process of being organized. Four Collective Farms. ‘The colony’s state farms are part of the country-wide system of farms financed by the central government in Moscow. Besides the state farms there are four collective farms at Birobidjan, with a total of 1,925 souls. They pos- sess 650 cows, 250 horses and 1,700 beehives. Last year the collectives sold to the state 64,000 pounds of honey, of which more than half was exported. ‘The collective farms, though com- paratively small at present, are expected to be expanded to agricultural “socialist towns” of considerable size. ‘The central government in Moscow is keenly interested in the development of the Birobidjan colony, Paikin de- clared. Hgouid the state had expended over 5,000000 rubles in starting the colony. An additional 5,000,000 rubles was applied to the development of the state farms last year. This year's plans call for an expenditure of 20,000,000 rubles. The funds are to be applied not only to farming but also to the development of artisan industry. Of this there is already a furniture factory which produces a carload daily of chairs. A limekiln and a suitcase factory are the other industries, (Copyrisht, 1931 (though the public generally is not yet | aware of it) a condition at once so novel | the disintegration of civilization. Most and so widespread and coming from |Of those who believe this way say so such elevated sources as to constitute | much more strongly than Mr. Donham. an important phenomenon. I refer to |Most of them predict a greater degree predictions. assertions and emanations | of collectivism through Government me- | from exalted sources which say, in | tion. | effect, that this is not merely a business| The amount of this sort of talk and depression—but the beginning of a of writing is enormous, and it comes revolution. from sources, some of them, that make | Let us leave that for a moment and You rub your eyes. Nearly all the au- consider this depression as most plain- | thors of it mention, as Mr. Donham | thinking folks do consider it, as & de- | does, Russia. I can best cxpress the pression in the ordinary sense. similar | observation that has dawned upon me in its conditions of cause and recovery, | by saying it is plain that a consider- | though greater in degree, than the |able portion of the thinking of certain | depresstons of 1921 or 1907, or the more | Circles in the United States has been | comparable ones of 1893 and 1873. | serfously affected—or is “infected” the | Those who look at the depression in | Word?—by what is going on in Russia. that way—most of them, at least—say | I speak of all this talk not to say I | it is already over, in the sense that|believe it—the reader will gather that | the worst is past and that recovery is | I attempt to describe it merely to record | ward war 17 years ago will this time | underway. All the more important ad- Al vegetable and milk farm with 300 cows, | a hog ranch and rabbit farm also are | lead toward peace? That is a question to which the League Council meeting next week in Geneva may indicate the answer. The Council will meet in an atmos- | phere of doubt and uncertainty. So |far as can be learned, little progress has been made in the advance nego- | tiations toward settling any of the major problems with which the Council will be faced. A simple enumeration of these prob- lems suffices to show how arduous the Council’s task will be: Pirst, the ques- tion of whether the Austro-German union is legal under existing treaty agreements. Both Austria and Germany | assert that they are going ahead with | the plan and have not suspended ne- gotiations pending the League's deci- sion, as previously announced. | Secondly, Aristide Briand's scheme for broader customs agreements, unit- |ing all_Europe, instead of dividing it | regionally, as the Austro-German | scheme would tend to do. The Soviets have been invited to participate in this discussion, which, in the view of many observers, means that positive results are virtually impossible. Thirdly, the organization of the World Disarmament Conference of 1932, Nei- ther the place of meeting nor the chair- man has yet been selected, to say noth- ing of an agreement on the method of work, President Hoover's speech setting disarmament as the price of prosperity has thrust this question sharply for- ward and emphasized the importance of taking serious steps toward prepa- rations for the 1932 conference, | American co-operation in any of the general schemes for economic revival is hoped for. Behind these major questions are whole flock of smaller, but equally dif- ficult, issues which promise to fill the citement. (Copyright, 1931 iMolorifirls t; Fix Own Speed Limit in the Alps GENEVA.—Switzerland, of all Euro- | pean countries, is continually making things easy for the touring motorist. It has just abolished the speed limit in the open country, after three ineffec- tual attempts to prescribe what a safe speed might be. The motorist in the future is to be his own censor. A federal law which hrll;l: this into e ies of appiving it or ot a v of apply A wl{h or pwlt.h:: exceptions. Most of them will line up with the federal law, others will reserve their state’s rights option. Swiss post office motorized mail coaches have the right of way and may take the inside on any narrow moun- tain road, leaving other road users only the outside edge, whether it be left or right. No other vehicle using these | same mountain roads may have a horn or audible signal of more than one note. ‘The mail coath is thus privileged to announce itself from afar, around cor- ners and high up on the staircase hair- flnu:‘by which Swiss roads scale moun- Foreign touring cars entered Switzer- Jand last year to the number of 163,477, September alone accounting for 14,379, Switzerland is almost the only conti- nental European country that exempts the temporary foreign automobile tour- ~'-€fmm road taxes or charges of any ure. | visory services to banks and investors | say that. Babson's, Brookmire and | others have for some weeks advised the | | purchase of securities (which are an |index, a barometer of future business {crmdltluns;. Most of the men experi- enced and shrewd in finance and eco- | nomics say that prices of securities | | have registered or are just now regis- | tering the lowest levels of the depres- sion and that from now on the move- ment will be upward. One of the wisest {men of this class is Thomas Woodlock, a phenomenon existing in circles that most of my readers will call “high- bro to so great a degree as to be important. What it predicts is a world very different from what we have known —a world based on a new social phi- losophy, & philosophy which departs from our familiar individualism and embraces collectivism. And now to get back to where we started about next year's presidential election. If this is not a mere business depression, if it is the beginning of & revolution, then clearly it will not be | a scholar in the world of business and | ended by November, 1932. On the con- finance. He has been a stock broker, | trary, if this is the opening phase of a an editor of the Wall Street Journal, | revolution, we shall be much deeper | an expert in railroads, a member of the | into the foaming trough of it by next | Federal Interstate Commerce Commis- | presidential election day sion, and in all his roles he has been | Perhaps if the predictors are right primarily a scholar. Primarily his| we shan't have any more presidential | mental operations have been those of | election days. If the prophets of the |an exact mind intent upon facts and | new philoscpby are sound, President | truth. Mr. Woodlock wrote as early as Hoover would seem to have two choices | January 24 this year an article In the | —either he can go the way of Alfonso Wall Street Journal headed “Now Is and Kerensky or he can keep himself the Time” meaning that now is the | time to buy securities. “All factors in- | dicate,” he sald, “present is opportune | for investing in securities.” Believe Bottom Reached. It is not necessary to summarize the mass of judgment to the same effect. There are exceptions, striking and able ones. What is meant to say here, how- on the job permanently through the device of making himself a Mussolini. For myself, what I expect is a cam- paign and an election in the old famil- iar way, except that I think it will be the first really doubtful election in 16 years and the second since 1896. I think that America’s hills and dales will echo in the old familiar way—so familiar as to be sweet to the ear. The ever, is that nearly all persons who look | donkey will bray, the elephant will roar. upon this as a business depression of | What they bray about and roar about the familiar type think the bottom of | won't be entirely clear, but it's a case ir, it has been reached. They differ to some extent about how wide the bottom | is. Many think we have concluded | passing the bottom, some think we will | be on the bottom some time yet. But| all the commentators of this type think | of— So the tune has a right good ring, It doesn't much matter what song they sing. ‘We shall all get a thrill out of it—a the depression is merely an exception- | “kick,” as the younger folks say—and ally deep and wide bottomed example | after election day we'll continue, to live Geneva atmosphere at the coming meet- | ing with unaccustomed anxlety and ex- | of the familiar type of business depression. ‘What is novel just now, what is so sensational as to be spectacular—and what may be not important at all, or else extremely important—is the exist- ence of a number of commentators who say that this is not a depression in the ordinary sense at all, but the beginning of a revolution: a peaceful revolution, | but yet a profoundly fundamental and disturbing one—a revolution right here |in America. | The phrase T have used, “the begin- ning of a revolution,” is mine, not theirs—though I think few of these | commentators would object to the | phrase, and many of them actually use | those words or their equivalent. In | any event, the thing they predict—not predict, but confidently talk about as here—is a revolution. As Senator La Follette puts it, “The philosophy of laissez faire has ended in disaster. * * * The ideas of an_ agricultural society have been definitely outmoded and a new set-up of soclety is nec- essary.” Faculties Full of Idea. ‘To any one who understands the classical terminology of social organiza- is a revolution, no less. In quoting I may have impaired my own argu- ment, because many who think of the young Wisconsin Senator as a radical in politics will back away from taking him as seriously as they might take some others who say the same thing. But Senator La Follette knows exactly what he is saying and believes the thing that he says. He got the idea, I suspect, from the colleges—the college faculties are full of it. Again I may impair the convincing- nesy of what I aay by eiting colleges as & source of it, for much of the public » tion, what Senator La Follett> describes | Senator La Follette before some others | | happy ever after in the same old U. S. A. | Women Police Bal;ne'd | From Sha=zghai Force | BSHANGHAI —There will be no wom- |en on the Shanghai foreign police | corps, according to a ruling made by the municipal council of the Interna- tional Settlement. However, the coun- cil admits the police commissioner, now on holiday in England, is making a. study of the question, and if women still want to get jobs police officers they may submit their petition to the commissioner when he returns. The question was raised by the chatr- man of the joint committee of Shang- hal women’s organizations. To date the only foreign woman in the police sefivlce is the matron of the municipal jail ——— |Rebuilding China, Tough Assignmeni SHANGHAI—A government official in Wusih has resigned his post and his | action illustrates the difficulties of the | reconstruction movement in China. He resigned when ordered by the provincial | government to widen one of the main streets of the city six feet on each side. | Being & native of the city, he realized | what an unpopular undertaking he was called upon to do, and rather than superintend the destruction of stores and houses fronting the street he threw in his hand and quit. The governmant has transferred him to another town, [