Evening Star Newspaper, August 31, 1930, Page 13

A . EDITORIAL SECTION he Sunday Sta WASHINGTON, D C., SUNDAY MORNING, AUGUST 31, 1930. POLISH CORRIDOR INCIDENT AROUSES PRE-WAR HATES ‘German Threat M BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. HILE a more moderate state- ment by Treviranus, German Reich minister, formerly in charge of occupled areas of the Rhineland, and a sooth- ine utterance by Curtius, the German foreign minister, have somewhat soft- ened the effect of the former's first declazation concerning the Polish Cor- Tidor, it is beyond question that Europe has again been brought face to face with an “incident” thoroughly remi- niscent of pre-war times. Precisely as the Polish Corridor is the Alsace-Lor- raine f contemporary Europe, the Ger- man minister's statement has’ produced exactly the kind of a state of nerves which used to accompany references to Metz or Strasbourg on either side of the Franco-German frontier. ‘This new incident is both immedi- ately and in the arger view unfortu- ate. In the nearer view it bodes ill for the discussion of Briand's Pan- European project at the forthcoming meeting of the League of Nations in the first days of September. And, looking to the future, it promises an interrup: tion of the procczs of Franco-Gern.an | avpeasement and _reconciliation; for France has taken alarm quite as genu: inely as Poland. Nationalists See Vindication. In the French view this German declaration, even though it be softened to a statement that Germany will seek the revision of her frontiers only by peaceful meens, is an unhappy German Tesponse to the recent evacuation of the Rhineland nearly five years in ad- vance of the date fixed by the treaty of Versailles. The Nationalists, who opposed this concession, have already found vindication for their protests, and are renewing their familiar warnin, of German purpose with unmistakable effectiveness. As to the. issue itself—the question of the Polo-German frontiers, and more particularly of the portion of the treaty of Vcrsailles dealing with the Corridor and the Free City of Danzig—there is little that it is possible to say beyond the self-evident fact that no revision is possible without war. The Pcles of every party are agreed to the same principle, which is expressed in the determination to fight a new partition ©f their country to fhe death. enaces Briand- Plan and Franco-German Feeling Since Evacuation. peace treaties, which would hegin by restoring German possession of the Cor- ridor. What wise men in all eountries per- ceive is that since ‘no country is at the moment ready to fight for a treaty revi- sion it is better to keep silent than to | discuss such burning “issues, for the | Polish Corridor is but one of half & dozen ethnic disputes which have no lchflnc of being submitted to juridical | determination. But if the wise men are reed, the nationalists in all countries are steadily bidding for national ap- | proval at the risk of international dis- turbance, and Traviranus is only one among many offenders. | _For better or for worse. the Polish | Corridor is likely to endur: until such time as Germany is able by force and through w - to bring about a revision, | or France by withdrawing her support |from Poland puts Poland in such a | hopeless situation in ‘- ‘ace of cer- tain German, and possible Russian, at- | tack that she may, although the chance |1s small, assent to sor..e peaceful read- justment. Population Gains Worrv Germany. But what troubles the Germans is hat, on the one hand, the lost terri- tory is rapidly losing its German popu- lation, and, on the other, East Prussia, cut off from the Reich by a new fron- tier, is declining alike in por:lation and in prosperity. If you go to the | region of the Polish Corridor, as I did | several years ago, .ot only do you have the once familiar sensation of visiting |a battle front but also there is the sense that the German is waging & losing battle, and that if existing con- ditions continue indefinitely he may |end by seeing East Prussia engulfed by | & peaceful penetration of the Polish population, which is increasing more (rapidly than the German snd is ready | to_take over the unprofitable farms. Unless Germany keeps steadily raising the question at every chance, and un- less it can get some satisfaction before oo long, the issue m.y settle itself by the practical disappearance of the Ger- man element, which has already largely vanished from Posen and the Corridor, from cities like Bromberg and Thorn, and is only holding on prepariously in Upper Silesia. As a practical matter, Polish posses- sion of the Corridor today imposes very | little actual hardship upon East Prus- | Historically the territory at issue was | for more than three centuries before it was taken by Fred ick the Great, chiefly in the fir. decisive majority of the Slav, and the loss of “ould deprive “oland of all access to the sea. It was these considerations Which moved Woodrow Wilson to throw | his decisive vote in favor of the Poles| at Paris. Moreover, since the passing| of the territory to Poland the German population has diminished grefitly and the Polish majority has similarly in- creased. But even before the World ‘War these districts sent Poles to the German Reichstag. Danzig Stolidly Teutonic. The German case, on the other hand, | Tests upon the obvious fact- that the | Polish possession of the Corridor sepa- | Tates East Prussia from the Reich.| Moreover, there is the further fact that Danzig itself, the city and the entire Iree state, is practically without a Pol- ish minority, being stolidly Teutonic and never having been reconciled to the enforced Separation from the German Fatherland. France is interested primarily because Poland is the most important ally of the republic, and also because any re- ‘vision of the peace treaties would es- tablish a precedcnt which would be cited in other attempts to revise the settlement at the expense of all Prance's i Rumania, Jugoslavia, Czecho- slovakia, and even Belgium. France. too, might expect, despite the Locarno +pact, that Germany would raise the question of Alsace-Lorraine if revision | ‘were achieved elsewhere. On the German side it is equally clear that no real compromise is possible. 1f all Poles are resol-ed to fight rather than ced an inch of territory, there are few Germans who do not insist 1;:2 under the s-ervision of e treaty trais 5 wit] partition. A | customs or passport eraminai o DY | retaliated against our tarifl with tarifls population ,is| as the Germans point out, in the past | Of their own, the territory | the Poles did impose many hampering | tually amount to an embargo on Amer- | regulations and remain able at will to|ican products. | sia, sinee the railway traffic is now ad- | Justed to avoid all unnecessary delays, BY JAMES J. DAVIS, United States Secretary of Labor. RITICS of the new tariff bill contend that one of its effects will be to stimulate the estab- lishment of American fac- ¢ tories abroad. Certain foreign the repeat the performance. It is customary to refer to the crea- | tion of the Polish Corridor as one of | the great—perhaps the greatest—blun- | der or crime of (he treaty of Versailles, But the truth is that the real trouble arises from the mixed character of the Population 'in the regions concerned. There can only be a Gerraan solution totally unacceptab’. to the Poles or a solution equally repugnant to the Ger- mans. Poland without access to the sea would be economicaily at the mercy | of Germany. East Prussia, cut off from | the Reich, can be hampered, but still retains cheap and e.-v communication | with the fatherland by ses. Bad Feeling Grows. Beyond any doubt, the oresent inci- dent will end without any more serious consequences than a new wave of re- crimination and bad feeling extending from Paris to Warsaw and affecting Brussels, Prague, Bucharest and Bel- | grade, as well as the French and Polish capitals. - But just as certainly sinflar speeches will presently provoke similar outbreaks and serve, as dici the present burst of German oratory, t> remind the ‘world of the volcano existing just below the surface of a Europe taat is laying aside discussion of the fnevitable war to talk of European - federation at | Geneva. All in all, given the still recent | Pranco-Italian crises and the eternal| Towing between the Little Entente and | | Hungary, this latest interaational epi- | sode indicates that Europe is having a year in its international relations, that the real pacification of Europe can only be achieved by a revision of the and that the weather signals must be 8ct for storms. (Copyright, 1930.) Aliens, Now Barred Return to Home ATHENS.—In out of the way corners of Europe one will ind now and then individuals who if ever assembled in one place would make a formidable population, They are the nostalgic aliens, men usually who had their glimpse of what they considered a bet- ter land and who for one reason or another returned to their native coun- tries and now are “sunk” there, unabi ever to return to America, where wages are high, many have automobiles, and a man can go to the movies at any hour of the day or evening. Once, in a tiny hamlet in the Pyre- nees, I met a man sitting on a board fence by a stream I was trying to fish in. He spotted me for an American and asked, “Well, what luck?” It was an old friend from Sutter street, San Ffancisco, the Prank of Frank & Henry's Restaurant, and by the judicious administration of the rather small supply of dago red and the careful conservation of the revenues Prank had been able to retire. With his bootleg returns he had retired to the Pyrenees, where he had bought a farm, become a wine merchant on a large scale and had got himself elected Deputy from his district. He was the only “unnostalgic alien” I have so far met. When he got back from America he rose instead of fell. In Greece there are others like him who now own their own homes, a little plot of ground, etc., but those Greeks who have been in America once you usually meet are an- other type. One encounters them as porters, ele- vator operators, baggage men, consti- tuting a fringe of half-native, half- English speaking people around the international hotels; the Greek employe of the tourist agency at Athens,” who meets all trains, a man with sad blue » eyes who watches Americans depart with a_continual repetition of sorrow in his breast. wes patriot,”ghe sald. “I had job America,” I T in papers + all Greeks got own land now. Every- body great. I quit Americg. I co back, War starts. I get war, I get twice wounded. I get out war. I get I figure 1 always go back immi- married. America. _ America she stop anis. Now 1 got kids. What the 1l You know settled. The Armenian in the Turkish restau- rant in Constantinople, the Pera part “Big mistake 1 make” he told me “Bjg mistake when I camp back to ‘Turkey. waiter at the Wal- He had been a told they | B @mil-Astoria, which I, When & man_gets I'm settled. Here I dle, I From U. S,, Regret land From America had torn town. It was a blow, and he almost wept. “That nice hotel. So elegant,” he sald. “Why? Why Terry Benuhan was in America from 1903 until 1913, and then his father wanted him to come back to Constanti- nople. He went. “I was planning nice plice Lexington and Fourth, Armenian restaurant down- stairs and nice rugs upstairs. When I got back, the war broke out and 1 | Joned British forces as interpreter. When I got through the war, my wife ‘and two sons had been deported to the interior. She died. One son died. All my relations died. I was deported. I escaped and found protection with | the American consul. My boy now is |19. I try to send him to America and | when he is 21 he will te naturalized |and then he can send for me. I get |good job waiting there. America the only place for me. Here I get no pa- pers. I'm Armenian. Who wants an Armenian in Turkey? Mo chance to rise up in life here. They hate every- | body but Turk. The Hungarian journaist in Buda- |pest who studied ‘in New York and |lived at the International House: “I | shall go back to America sometime. I live in that hope. Budap:st is a beau- tiful city.® We have many things here that America hasn't. But America, New York, has the power, the new life, the energy. I love New York. | (Copyright, 1931.) |Price of Birds Jumps | On Buddha’s Birthday The price of live sparrows and other birds recently took a jumap in Shang- hai, China, on the occasion of the !hlnhdly of Buddha. Bi'd shops near | the city temple did a rurhing business, sparrows, which ordinarily netted a few coppers, selling at close to a nickel, The reason for this lies in the tevets of Buddhism, as understood by the faithful followers, to the effect that birds in captivity, especially sparrows, must be set free on Buddha's birthday if megit is to be acquired. ‘The' cycle is something like this: | Small boys go nesting and bird-snaring, sell them to the bird shops, where they are caged, only to be bought by . | Buddhists, who take thein out into the open and set them free, Everybody is contented. and only the shopkeepers do A little profiteering. '{ll birthday of countries, they point out, have already which in some cases vir- Italy's new rates against American | automobiles are pointed to as an ex- | ample. These critics tell us that simi- | lar tariffl moves against our goods may | be expected. The answer of American sellers in foreign markets will be to establish branch factories within those markets and behind tariff walls. The effect will be that the American pro- ducer will retain his hold on the for- eign market he has won for his prod- uct, but in the manufasture of this product he will employ foreign labor, with consequent loss to the Amcrican workers who might have been em- ployed in the manufacture of such product. With the passing of time and the extension and growth of these BY WILLIAM GREEN, President of the American Pederation of Laoor. MERICAN trade unionists are unalterably opposed to permit- ting the manufacture and sale of products of conviet labor to undermine conditions_and standards of fair competition. It is immaterial to this principle whether the convict labor be American or for- elgn. What we are concerned with is that exploitation of prisoners shall not undermine those standard practices necessary to free competitive business and labor., Convict-made goods are sold at less than the cost of production with free labor, because either very low wages or no wages at all are paid. The effects of selling goods at less than cost are even more disastrous to innocent people than many acts for which persons are imprisoned. We are just at the beginning of the develop- ment of -standards of business_ethics. Commerce and business of early days ethics as did pirates. Neither fairness in dealing nor even human life de- terred the secker of profits in the Eliza- bethan days. We have made progress in business morality, though we fall far short of always knowing what is the best thing to do to conserve the best interests of all. Progress on Two Lines Cited. Both industry and commerce today have made greater progress in develop- ing our modern mechanism than we have in understanding its intricate in- terrelationships. Because we do not understand these interrelationships we fail to discern the#structure of interde- pendence that runs present-day in- dustry. @his accounts for our failure to keep the machinery balanced proj erly and for our resulting business de- pressions, | Labor believes that exact knowledge | of industrial trends, together with exact | knowledge of the costs of industry and commerce, are basic in-mastering the forces of economic control. Labor rightly demands that management shall manage its trust that only practices promoting the continuing well being of all shall be tolerated. Exploitation ‘is not the pathway to constructive development, Manufac- ture or sale of goods at less than they cost under conditions that #ssure prog- ress for free and efficient working citi- zens is ‘contrary to the ideals and pur- poses of America. Not so many years ago manufacturers thought they were putting through a clever business deal when they con- tracted with the State for convict labor. Sometimes they even induced the State to pay the cost of factory maintenance and overhead. Workers who had to compete with conviéts working without pay, first pointed out the evil, and through their unions started a cam- paign to regulate conviet labor. Other manufacturers and merchants suffered because of the special given thesé contractors. In cumulative effects were evident in business retarda- tion finally depression. bad business observed pretty much the same code of | American industries in foreign lands, | these critics further tell us, the Amer- | fean worker may suffer severely. On the surface this reasoning ap- | pears to be sound and entitled to at- tention. But its soundness disappears at the first touch of analysis. The establishment of American industries in other countries has no immediate rela- tion to our tariff policies and the proc- ess began long years before the present tariff bill was thought of. Nor is '‘America the country which began the practice. Years ago England and other countries set up in America branch factories for the manufacture, for example, of particular makes of automobiles which had found favor with American buyers of high-priced cars. These plants were financed with foreign capital and manned and man- aged by foreign executives and me- chanics. This was before the day of re- strictive immigration. Today their plants would have to be operated largely by American workers who were taught the foreign method of manufac- ture. More recent examples of the same thing are the rayon factories set up in the same way in certain Ameri- whole economic structure. No business can prasper or decline without affecting | all others. This in itself justifies the | cstablishment and maintenance of | standards of business conserving the best interests of all. It is this purpose | that the American Federation of Labor has advanced from the beginning of its existence in strenuously opposing the manufacture and sale of convict-made goods in competition with those of {ree abor. The convict labor problem in the United States finally became so im- portant that practically every State in the Union adopted legislation pro- hibiting the manufacture and sale of convict-made goods in competition with | free labor. Recently the Federal Con- gress passed the Hawes-Cooper bill which provides that sovereign States | may enact legislation depriving con- vict-made goads of thelr interstate character and prohibiting the sale within the State, in competition with ! can localities by German and English capital and enterprise. So far we have heard nothing to the effect that these American branches wrecked or seriously affected these in- dustries in the countries of their origin. We have heard no complaint from the workers of those countries that they were being deprived of employment. Our own manufacturers of high-class moter cars, for instance, seemed to have no difficulty in meeting this com- petition. And our own workers profited by the additional employment and buying power supplied them. It was simply that the world was better able to buy these particular products and factories were established to meet the demand. These industries stood as outposts along the development of a world-wide industrial expansion. Our own branch industries in forefgn countries may be looked upon, it seems to me, as similar outposts and as fol- lowing a similar trend. They spring up at the touch of American enter- prise to supply the demand of a world that is growing more able to buy atd consume. The process began, I re- peat, long before any thought of this supposed “tariff war,” and the process . free labor, of convict-made goods manufactured in another State. The enactment of conviet labor legislation of the kind and character here referred to indicates clearly that the American people are opposed to the sale of convict-mined or convict- manufactured goods in competition with the goods manufactured by free labor. Because of this fact the people generally have become aroused over press Teports which leave the impres- sion that lumber, anthracite coal and other commodities and articles which are being shipped from Russia and sold in the United States, have. been mined | and produced by convict labor. Policies Contrasted. 1t is inconceivable that convict-raade and convict-produced goods from a foreign country can be sold in the United States in competition with free labor, where convict-made goods which might be produced within its own na- Russian Soviets TASHKENT.—One must travel some 6,200 miles by rall from Moscow—and probably wait a number of years for the opportunity—if he wishes to take a look at these far-away border coun- tries of the Soviet Union in Central Asia. On the political map they ap- pear as spots just as gaudily colored as the dress of honor donned by the proud and reserved Usbekians, whose land is the wealthiest and most im- portant in Soviet Céntral Asia today. The former Turkestan is today hardly more than a geographical conception. The word, once a designation for the whole country, still exists as an abbre- viation denoting the Turkestan-Siberian R: 3 so-called “Turksib.” Otherwise it is tabooed as pre-revolu-| tionary. It has been replaced by the two Saviet republics of Ushekistan and Turkmenistan, to which at the begin- ning of the present year a third, Tad- shikistan, was added. ‘The boundary lines of the former Craristic vassal States, such as Buchara, have disappeared. North of the Pamir, adjacent to the border mountains toward Western China, the Soviet republic of Kirgisia is situated as an autonomous member of the Usbekistan republic. On the plateau of the Pamir an autonomous Pamir territory exists whose geographical and political borders are not exactly fixed. From the southeastern shore of Lake Aral a broad strip of desert land leads off, forming the autonomous territory of the Kara-Kalpaks. This, however, is territory already belonging politically to the Russian Soviet Union, to which likewise belongs as an autonomous part the immense territory of Kasakstan. ‘This complicated division of territory is of a comparatively late date. Itwas made in 1925 and shgws to a certain as well as transmif The consequences of policies the effects of good policies are itted throughout the degree the wide pdiitical aspect it was in Central Asia Spread Bolshevism of Moscow Through Far East to serve. Turkestan has been the latest of the czaristic conquests, having been subjugated in 1865. It remained a country that had to be defended up to the last. The period of conquest in Central Asia had not even ended under the Czar's regime, much less for the new Russia, which is transferring its center of gravity from Europe toward the East. ‘There exists an inner connection be- tween the Russo-Chinese conflict and the creation of the new Soviet. Repub- lic of Tadshikistan. It is impossible, of course, for Russia, with the means at her disposal, to hold her ground in Manchuria by methods of simple mili- tary and political force, for Russia is at present unable to employ any aggres- sive measures against Japan. The modern weapons of conquest, such as national liberation from the yoke of imperialism and subsequent so- cial revolution, may not be applied to the Chinese Colossus. For these rea- sons it is believed at Moscow that Cen- tral Asia offers the best opportunity for successfully applying the Soviet cure. Central Asia is the ideal ground for a practical working of the Bolshevik methods of minority politics. Giving it a brief first look, it seems to be an at- tractive and broad-minded method. The latest curreht of events in this territory abounds with instances in which bolshevism has arrayed itself with nationalism. ‘The dream of the young Nationalists, the modern reformers, has come to an end. The Komintern lost no time in decreeing that an alliance with them could be only transitory. Without hesi- tation, bolshevism has taken possession there of the whole hand when only the little finger was offered. It may have doné this with too much haste, for be- yond the borders the Nationalist idea still much alive, The contest be- ‘tween bolshevism and nationalism has not been decided yet and all means are being used to continue the fight, Our Foreign Factories Aid Expansion of American Business More Likely as Result of U. S. Industries Operating Abroad. MASS PRODUCTION HAS DEVELOPED TO A POINT WHERE WE CAN MORE THAN SUPPLY OUR HOME MARKET. —Drawn for The Sunday Star by Robert Lawson. hes little or mo relation to that “war.” ‘We must, nevertheless, ste to it that these American owned plants abroad do not compete with American plants in America. ‘There is just one feature of the proc- ess that we need to watch. Only when establishment of an American industry in another country means the closing of that industry in Amerjca, with loss of employment to American workers, do we need to worry. In that case the in- dustry is transferred outright from American to foreign soil, But examples this are rare. Comparatively few w of more than a single instance iu recent years where the opening of a factory for the manufacture and sale o! a typlcally American product in a oreign land meant the actual closing o! a similar factory here. In the set- ting up of this plant it may not have been the deliberate intent to take ad- vantage of a lower foreign wage scale and export back to America much of its product, which happened at the time to be on our free list. That, however, was the effect for a time, ‘There are, no doubt, Americans who rogard as ideal a situation in which the (Continued on Fourth Page.) Néw War on Prison Labor Convict Production Must Not Be Permitted to Undermine Standards of Fair Competition. tional boundaries are prohibited from sinle. On behalf of the American Federa- tion of Labor I appealed to the Govern- ment to investigate the rumors which have been circulated and the stories which have been appearing in the press. I respectfully urged that if luml coal or any other commodities mined and manufactured by convict labor in Fussia are being shipped and offered for sale in the United States, the im- portation and sale of such goods should be promptly and expeditiously pre- vented. I understand that the law now.ln effect provides that goods produced'by convict labor in any country are pro- bibited from shipment to and sale in the United States. A section in the racently enacted tariff measure broad- ens the scope of the statute so that goods manufactured and produced by forced and indentured labor, as well as goods manufactured and produced by convict labor, shall be prohibited from entry and sale in the United Sitates. This, however, does not be- come operative until later. Because of the serious way in which the manufacture and sale of convict- made goods in the United States affects the wellbeing of our working men and women, I urged upon the Government the necessity of applying, in a most definite and practical way, the prohib- fiory features of the tariff legislation. Distress Due to Unemployment. There exists at the present time a great deal of distrgss and suffering throughout the land, caused by the very widespread unemployment. All ¢ of people who are interested in fhe prosperity and wellbeing of our coun- try are giving serious thought to the problem and are rendering all service possible. The American Federation of Labor i3 jealous that standards of economic wellbeing and business ethics shall be maintained in thg United States and that our Nation shall do its part to establish and maintain the best stand- ards in international markets. Unfair competition and practices must give way to co-operation and mutual good will between peoples. In asking for an fnvestigation of imports from Russia that were said®to be the products of convict compulsory labor we are maintainthg fundamental _principles, rot discriminating against Russia. Swedish Phone Lines 5as - Are Triumph in Italy | e —— b In the last four or five yeats Swedish | telephone companies have 5co ed & re- raarkable series of successes in Italy. While American companies, such as the Western Electric, for instance, have been limiting their activitles in the | Targer cities of Rome, Turin and Milan, Siwedish competitors have installed tele- {-hone exchanges in Verona, Brescia, lergamo, Alessandria, Novara, Vercelli, Cremona, Mantova, Naples, fiyracuse, Catanj) and Messina, Palermo, be CHANCES OF DEMOCRATIC SENATE CONTROL COUNTED Republicans Held Likely to Lose More Seats in Fall Election, But Majority Remains in Doubt. BY MARK SULLIVAN. O far as these political weeks until November 4 have a dramatic aspect—and the consensus so far is that the public is not yet greatly moved—the question 'is, will the Democrats elect a majority of Congress? The present article deals with the Senate only. The first fundamental fact is that the Senate at present consists of 56 Republicans, 39 Democrats and 1 Farmer-Labor (Shipstead of Minne- sota). Equally fundamental with this is the fact that 14 out of the 56 Re- publicans in the present Senate are Republicans only in name. They call themselves “Progressive Republicans.” Some others call them insurgent Re- ublicans. A few persons call them by names not printable here. Senator George Moses calls them “sons of thf_] wild jackass.” In that association of the Progressive Republicans, with the jackass as the symbol of Democracy, there is aptness, for the insurgent Re- publicans are, as respects most legisla- tion, more nearly Democrats than Re- publicans. Most of them have an atti- tude of rather bitter malevolence to- ward the Republicans. They are “anti- Republicans.” Senator George W. Norris, for example, undoubtedly hates ihe Republican party, whereas his ate titude toward the Democratic party is, ns a rule, one of co-operation. Counts All as Republicans. However, for simplicity’s sake, the present article counts the Progressi' Republicans like the Republican Ni tional Committee treats them, that is, as_Republicans. This course is com- pelled by considerations of clarity and is tenable on broader grounds, since the real question in this campaign is whether there is a pronounced trend toward the Democratic party. The next fundamental fact is that out of the 56 Republican seats 22 are to be filled in the November elections; and out of the 39 Democratic seats 13 are to be filled. Comparison of these two figures of seats to be filled, 22 Republican and 13 Democratic, reveals the first significant omen of the outcome. Inherently, other things being equal, it is easier for the Democrats to hold 13 seats than for the Republicans to hold 22. To say that, however, is far from saying that the Democrats will win control of the Senate. On the con- trary, the aggregate of the signs points the_other way, strongly. 13 Democratic Seats First. Consider, first, the 13 Democratic (that is, now held by Democrats) seats to be filled in November. The list of them, together with the name of the sitting Democratic Senator in each case is: Texas, Morris Sheppard; Virginia, Sobimeon; " Mississippi. Fat Hamison: Robi i M al ; nflr'u'm J. Harris; Louisiana, Joseph E. Ransdell; South Carolina, Cole Blease; Alabama, J. Thomas Hef- lin; Tennessee, William E. Brock; North Carolina, Purnifold M. Simmons; Mon- tana, Thomas J. Walsh; Jowa, Daniel and New Mexico, Sam G. Bratton. The names above are the names of the sitting Democratic Senators. They are not, in all cases, the present candi- dates. For example, Heflin of Alabama was excluded from his party and is running independent. Brock of Ten- nessee was not renominated for the long term. The Democratic candidate in that State is Cordell H"ull. fifllmm'zga Carolina was not renominated; %:‘mml’nln candidate in that State is J. W. Bailey. G. 0. P Victory Would Be Miracle. In that list of Democratic seats to be filled in November, a significance, favorable to the Demiocrats, will be found by observing that the first 10 ol' the 13 States are in the Democrats “Solid South.” That means that as to 10 of the 13 Democratic seats to be filled in November the Democrats will holdi them. By a miracle the Re- publ:::‘:ns might win one or two of them—but a miracle is not now ex- pected. In other words, the geographi- cal distribution of vacancles that oceur this year happens to favor the Demo- crats tly. The net of it s that_the Democrats will hold 10 of their 13 seats without difficulty. They don't even need 1o campaign for them. They can concen- trate their efforts on defending the re- maining three—and on making an of- fensive raid against the 22 Republican seats. In considering the net outcome of the election in November begin, there- fore, by assuming as a certainty that the Democrats will hold 10 of their 13 seats. As to the three others, they must fight. As to one of them, Iowa, hardly any amount of fighting by the Democrats will do much good. Iowa the Democrats will pretty surely lose. The two others, Montana and New Mexico, are doubtful States. The net about the 13 Democratic seats is that the Democrats are sure to hold 10, are almost equally sure to lose one and must fight for two as doubtful. 22 Republican Seats at Stake. 4 Turn now to the 22 Republican seats ch are to be filled in November. ‘The States, with the names of the sit- | ting Republican Senators, are: Ohio, Roscoe C. McCulloch; Michi- gan, James Couzens; Idaho, William E. Borah; Kansas, Arthur Capper and Henry J. Allen; Pennsylvania, Joseph Grundy; Oregon, Charles L. McNary; Nebraska, George W. Norris; Massa~ chusetts, Frederick H. Gillett; Illinois, Charles S. Deneen; West Virginia, Guy D. Qoff; Colorado, Lawrence C. Phipps; Delaware, Daniel O. Hastings: Wyoming, Patrick J. Sullivan; Rhode Island, Jesse HaMetcalf; South Dakota, William H. McMaster; New Hampshire, Henry W. Keyes; Maine, Arthur R. Gould: Minnesota, Thomas D. Schall; New Jersey, David . Baird, jr.; Okla- homa, W. B. Pine; Kentucky, John M. Robsion. The names on the list above are thase of the Republican sitting Sen- | ators. They are not, as to several cases, the names of the present candi- date in the November election. The sttting Republican Senators have not in all cases been renominated. For ex- ample, in Pennsylvania. Secretary «° Labor James J. Davis has been sub- stituted for Joseph R. Grundy. Grundv, wof Pennsylvania and Deneen of Illinois tried for renomination. but were de- feated. Six other sitting Republican Senators did not try for renomination. Significant Point to Study. ‘ Right here 'is a point in which some significance may be found. Some sig nificance, though possibly not as mucn as Democrats find in it. 'Six sitting Republican Senators whose seats are to be filled in November concluded to re- tire voluntarily and let some one else the Republican candidate. Confessedly, six Senators have hardly the faintest trouble in | be reduced voluntarily out of a total of 22 is an arresting fact. It runs counter to common rule about holding on to public office. It violates all statistics about office-holding. It belies the an- clent adage that “few die and none resign.” The Democrats say, jeeringly, that these six Republican Senators re~ tired because they were afraid. The Democrats claim these six would -have Tun if the running had been good. No doubt_there is something in that jeer, something in the idea that a Senator does not retire voluntarily if he thinks he can be re-elected. The Democrats point out that no Democrat whatever has retired voluntarily (exception, in a particular sense, Brock of Tennessee). Some Have Good Reasons, Dmitting partisan slant in the way Democyats look at this point, it is prob- ably true that some of the six Repub- licans who retired voluntarily did so because they felt that in their respec- tive States this might not be a good Republican year. Some, however, re- tired for perfectly good personal sons. A Senator with the name" of Patrick J. Sullivan (of Wyoming) never retired because he wanted to run away from a fight. Sullivan retired mainly because of his health. Neither did David J. Baird, jr, of New Jersey, xun away from a fight; Baird's retirement had one effect, hopeful from the Re- publican standpoint, of giving the Re- publican nomination to Ambassador ht Morrow. Other of the, six had personal reasons for voluntarily Tetirement that are perfectly well un- derstood. The six Republican Senators Who are retiring voluntarily are: Massachusetts, Frederick H. Gillett: West Virginia, Guy D. Goff; Colorado, Lawrence C. Phipps: Wyoming, Pat- rick J. Sullivan; Maine, Arthur R. Gould; New Jersey, David Baird, Ir. Republican Grip Is Uncertain, ‘The main point is: ‘Out of those 22 seats now occupied by Republicans, how many will they hold in November —and how many will they lose to the Democrats? The Republicans are as certain to hold some of these States as the Dem- ocrats are to hold their 1§ in the solid South. But whereas there is certainty that the Democrats will hold ten- thirteenths of their seats, the ratio of certainty is much smaller in the case of the Republicans. The Republicans can count with fair certainty on hold- ing, at the very least. 10 of their 22. To s dogmatically about cer- tainty in connection with these Re- | publican seats is to walk right up to the margin of doubtfulness. The line between what States the Republicans are sure to hold and what States are doubtful is fine—and controveysial. Hardly any one would question, how- ever, that the_ Republicans will hold their seats in Oregon, Maine, Kansas (2), New Hamj , Michigan, Penn- sylvania, New Jersey, Wyoming, Idaho. Tllinois Probably to Stay G. O. P. Quite probably that list of 10 Re- publican seats certain them is foo brief. publican leader ip. Hlinois will cry to heaven about the omission of Illinols from the list of certain Republican seats. The writer of this article agrees that their complaint is justified. Illi- nois in its entire history since the Civil War (I think) has sent just one Democrat to the United States Senate: Illinois recently has had two rules, one has been to select its Senators for one term only: the other has been to elect a’ Republican. The only excep- was in 1912—and that was because the Republicans were split; year when more than half the Re- publicans in the country went off after Theodore Roosevelt to form the Pro- gressive party and let a lot of Demo- crats get into office, including Wood- Tow Wilson. In Ilinois in 1912, the Republicans being split, a Democrat, , James Hamilton Lewis, won the Sen- atorship. When conditions became normal agein Lewis was retired. Now Lewis has this year got the Demo- cratic nomination and is trying to get back. The answer would seem to be that this year the Republicans are not split. The saying is almost as true of inois as of Towa: “Iowa will go Dem- ocratic when hell goes Methodist.” Bulkley Is Strong Contender. ‘There is much talk about the Demo- crats electing their senatorial candi- date in Illinois. There is little talk, as yet, about the ‘Democrats electing their senatorial candidate-in Ohio. Before the campaign ends there will be much talk about the ocrats carrying ' Ohio. This predietidn (that there will be such talk) may give offense to the Ohioan who happens to be official head of the Republican party, Senator Simeon D. Fess. It is not that Senator Fess is personally concerned, for he is not up for re-election. But he will regard it as scandalous to put in print the suggestion that Ohio may go Demo- cratic this year. Yet as between the chances of Ilinois going Democratic and the chances of Ohio, there is no comparison. ~ Without spinning too much about the conditions, there are at least two reasons. ' One is that Ohio goes Democratic almost as often as it goes Republican. Since 1900 Ohio has had a Democratic Governor, for ex- ample, a much larger number of years than it has had a Republican one. ~ Th second reason why Ohio may elect s Democratic Senator this year is that the Democrats have nominated an ex- tremely able man as candidate in the person of Robert J. Bulkley of Cleve- and. 12 Seats Held Doubtful. Since we are in the field of loose prediction, one may be even more dar- ing. The present writer thinks Ohio is more- likely elect a Democratic Senator than Massachnsatts is. To any: experienced observer of Massachusetts politics (Calvin Coolidge, for example) it will take a lot of proving to convinee him that Massachusetts will elect a Democratic Senator this year. In something like 75 years of his- tory Massachusetts has had just one Democratic Senator. This is David I. Walsh, now sitting. Walsh's sematorial mate, to be elected this year, should also be a Democrat would be & political miracie. If, after the November election, Massachusetts turns up with two Democratic Senators —then we shall have passed thi a political revolution, and such a revolu- tion would have meaning outside Mas- sachusetts. To get away from individual States, there are among the 22 b seats to be filled in November, about 12 that politicians call doubtful—doubt- ful in one degree or another. Among the 13 Democratic seats to be filled two are doubtful. The total of doubtful seats is 14. Without trying too »fi to be exact, if the ublicans shoul lose half the doubtful seats their number of Senators would be reduced from 56 to 49. Their ;nl:hfl\y would from an ample eight to an