Evening Star Newspaper, October 20, 1936, Page 9

New Methods Of Predicting Vote Found Untried Schemes Based on Primary Turnover Give Landon Edge. BY DAVID LAWRENCE. HICAGO, I, October 20.— Political prediction may be the guessing sport of the hour, but in Chicago I met two men, each of whom, without knowledge of the other, had spent several hours in research on the facts and figures of this campaign and past elections and had come to the same conclu- sion about Il- linois. They de- veloped such in- terestingand § novel methods of approach that I eannot forego the temptation to pass the informa- tion on to others who may be in- clined to make studies along similar lines. Unfortunately, am nat permitted at this time to use names. Maybe if their predictions and analyses are borne out by the actual returns on November 3. I will be allowed later to disclose their authorship. For the present, let it suffice that they are both nationally known, though neither s active in the campaign of any party this year. Their mode of rea- soning, however, is more important at the moment than their identity, any- One of the men referred to takes the Literary Digest poll, notes that 1t has been reaching more Republicans than New Deal party voters, and states that the missing vote can be cal- eulated by merely applying the 1932 percentages of Republican and Demo- eratic vote. Thus, in Illinois, there were 133 Roosevelt votes for every 100 Hoover votes in 1932. Multiplying the Republican and Democratic vote 4n this year's Literary Digest pool for Tilinois by 133 per cent, in order to get the equivalent number of New Deal voters who should be represented in the 1936 Digest poll, the so-called number of votes is obtained. Studies Cook County. The second analysis, made by an altogether different person, who has had a background of national affairs of nearly 50 years, concerns Cook County in particular. He savs: “In the 1932 primaries, preceding the Roosevelt landslide in the Fall of 1933, the Republican votes over- whelmingly outnumbered the Demo- eratic votes in many States. “In both the 1932 and 1936 pri- maries the registration was very large, as compared with the total of the pri- mary votes of both, which was very small. In California, for instance, this year, although there was a spirited contest in one of the parties, the pri- mary vote polled was 51.79 per cent of the total registration. In other words, over 48 per cent of those registering for the primary did not vote in it. “The man who intends to change his vote in the presidential election, be he Republican or Democrat, does not vote in the primary contest, which only involves internal differences of & party to which he does not belong. He registers in the primary perfunctorily, in accordance with habit. He does not vote in it because the principle which ehanges his vote is not at stake. It is from such voters that landslides eome. “Now, the recent registration shows 2.140,000. votes in Cook County, but Mr. Roosevelt in the 1936 primary polled 831,000 votes. To receive 50 per cent of the entire 2,140,000 votes registered for the next election, to wit, 1,070,000 votes, he would have to Peceive 239,000 more. “The excess of the registered votes for the November election was 900,000 above the votes cast in the primary— an fmmense and apparently unprece- dented figure. Accordingly, if Roose- velt receives as small an amount as 239,000 votes out of this 900,000, he will have tled Cook County. “Now remember that the invariable mark of a landslide is the enormous excess of votes cast in the election over the total vote cast in the pri- maries. For the voters changing from one party to the other in such num- bers as cause a landslide register but @do not vote in the primaries. “Here are some figures which dem- enstrate that, in landslide years, the “4n’ party polls in the ensuing elec- tion only about the vote it received in the primary—in many cases less—and that the excess vote in the election over and above the total vote cast in the primaries goes to the ‘out’ party. “Jowa: Hoover polled, in the 1932 election, 25,567 votes less than he polled in the primaries. Roosevelt polled 445,019 votes more in the elec- tion than he received in the primaries. Michigan and Pennsylvania. “Michigan: Hoover polled only 14,706 more votes in the election than he received in the primaries. Roose- velt polied over 718,000 more votes than he received in the primaries. “Pennsylvania: Hoover polled 32,821 votes in the election less than in the primaries. Roosevelt polled 1,120,501 votes more in the election than he polled in the primaries. “Illinois: Hoover polled 344,107 votes more in" the election than he polled in the primaries. Roosevelt polled 1,227,739 more votes in the election than he polled in the pri- maries. “Accordingly, T do not give Roose- velt a vote in Cook County in No- vember of over 950,000, as compared with his 831,000 vote in the primaries, and my estimate, therefore, of Lan- don’s majority in this county, based upon 2,140,000 registration, is from 100,000 to 200,000.” To put it another way, if the Cook County vote is really 50-50, then Mr. Landon is much closer to victory in this national election than is gen- erally believed. I would have given only passing thought to the analysis which my in- formant in Chicago outlined had I not learned the very next day of some tmportant polls being taken in Cook County, which show an amaszing parallel, namely, & 50-50 division. ‘This, of course, is & surprise after Mr. Roosevelt’s big street parade demon- stration last week in Chicago. If Cook County produces an even break for Landon on election night, Presi- dent Roosevelt will be in danger of Josing this election. Whatever the tide is that keeps him even in Cock County would lose him Indians, Ohlo, Michigan and other States that he needs in order to win. Is Cook Coun- ty a 50-50 proposition? Maybe the Literary Digest editors will be able to tell us, as they are reported to be planning to send ;500,000 ballots week into Cook County. . (Copyright, 1936.) David Lawrence. News Behind the News Early Start of Campaign Leaves Many Weary of Speeches, Observer Says. BY PAUL MALLON. OTH political sides are still outwardly fresh and entbused. The pose is & necessary pert of prescribed elecioral routine. Underneath, however, signs of fatigue are beginning to develop. The thunderers are running low on bolts. More than one astute politician now has a feeling the campaign got started too early. With the clarity of viston which hindsight affords, they can see it was impossible to maintain the early pitch of excitement con- tinuously until Election day. They are not disturbed, however, by come plaints from people tired of politics, by radio trade reports indicating less listening-in, or smaller turn- outs at the way stations. The ap- proach of Election day will again stir enthusiasm, they tell them- selves. ‘This election has been the most highly publicized in American his- tory. It has also been the most analyzed—and the least understood. Note—The only man on either side, who appears really to be fresh is Vice President Garner, who has been hunting at Uvalde, but not for Republicans, * X X % Most elusive in the election is the great number of new voters who have registered this year. It is indicated that about 44,000,000 persons will vote this year, or 4,000,000 more than in 1932. Inasmuch as the Democrats are only counting on e plurality of about 3,500,000 and the Repubdlicans are hoping for about the same, it will be seen that the election may easily be decided by these mysterious ¢,000,000 whom mo one knows. It is true, as Republicans say, that large registrations have usually indicated resentment against parties in power, especially in municipal campaigns. All city bosses have considered big registrations as hints of rising popular middle class wrath about to descend upon them. But there is more than a suspicion this year that an inesitimable proportion of the newcomers are W. P. A.-ers or C. C. C.-ers who are going to the trouble to vote for the first time. * x x * ‘The Republican exchequer has run low, but not as low as adver- tised. A hasty canvass was made recently for additional funds. Even ex-Chairman Fletcher was sent out with a blank check book and s fountain pen. He and the other canvassers obtained enough substan- tial autographs to resuscitate the Treasury. One inside situation which may have caused an exaggerated notion of the situation is this: Whenever one Republican headquarters faction suggests an idea, funds are always found to carry out the idea. But when the idea comes from the other faction, the treasury is always weak, ‘There iz one candidate who is not on the ballot, a Mr. John Edgar Hoover, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Mr. Hoover has apparently been campaigning for something or other through a series of speeches around the country, outlining the menace of crime and what he has been doing about it. Press copies of speeches by ordinary politicians are handed out in cheap mimeograph form, but Mr. Hoover's are printed by some new reproduction process which will undoubtedly put his publicity man in line for the next Pulitzer prize for typography. Ordinarily, you would think the boss detective would not need pub- licity, but Mr. Hoover may. A weekly magazine recenfly asked: “Will the politicians get Hoover?” The article did not give the answer, but it seems to be: “Probably.” Hoover has rubbed many an official the wrong way. The dope is that they plan to push legislation at the next session of Congress to centralize Federal detective agencies, and that Hoover will eventually find himself shorn of some of his arbitrary power as well as his press agent. LI Trade ¥reatists within the State Department aTe already talk- ing among themselves about activities they expect to start if they get the chance after election. First, they want to start a campaign of revision of existing treaties, bringing concessions “up to date” in line with exchange and quota revisions. Then they plan to go to work on Congress for an immediate extension of the temporary reciprocal trade act under which they are working. 1In conversation, they always refer to the hopelessly unwieldy method of attempting to deal with tariff policies in Congress. They do not intend to let Congress get back its tariff-making powers, (Copyright. 1 WASHINGTON, D. C, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 20, 1936 'HE opinions of the writers on this page are their own, not necessarily The Star’s. Such opinions are presented in The Star’s effort to give all sides of questions of interest to its readers, although such opinions may be contradictory among themselves and directly opposed to The Star’s. Roosevelt Own Barometer Puts Sincerity Upon Issues That at the Time Seem Important. BY MARK SULLIVAN. R. ROOSEVELT, at Omaha, Nebr, recently wanted to givé his personal indorse- ment to Senator Norris, who is running as s third candidate, with s Democrat running against him (and also, of course, a Republican). To make his indorsement emphatic, and to explain his extraordinary action— & Democratic President asking Demo- crats to vote against their own candi- date for Senator—Mr. Roosevelt said: “Outside my own State of New York, I have consistently refrained from taking part in elections in any other State. But Sen- ator Norris’ name has been entered as s candidate for Senator from Nebraska. And to my rule of non- participation in ; State elections I - have made—and 0 as he lives I always will make—one mag- nificently, Jjusti- fled exception.” That was Mr. Roosevelt speak- on October ;:“l' Less than seven days before he had publicly, even sensationally, taken s hand in an election in another State. In Minnesota there had been Democratic candidates for Governor and Senator. They had been per- suaded by Democratic Chairman Far- Jey to withdraw, in favor ofu;umer- r candidates for same ifin. P‘Afln: Mr. Roosevelt had blessed the arrangement in & public telegram 1o the retiring Democratic candidates: “ am deeply grateful that you were willing to sacrifice your personal ambitions. * * * Lights Up Personality. . Now the point of this does not lie in the fact of a President taking a hand in the local politics of a State. It does not lie merely in the fact of a Democratic President openly work- ing against the election of Democratic candidates—though orthodox Demo- Mark Sullivan, crats must be dismayed to see their | party being undermined. ‘The point does not lie in Mr. Roosevelt promot- ing the growth of a new party with purposes wholly strange to America, the Farmer-Labor party—though this is an extremely important develop- ment. The point that is relevant here lies in a light which the Omaha episode throws on Mr. velt's personality. The personal traits of any head of state | sre always momentous. They are es- pectally 5o when the head of state has been given such extraordinary powers as Mr. Roosevelt has. Te the degree that any country passes from govern- ment by laws toward government by men—to that extent the intellectual and emotional traits of the man ad- ministering power become as necessary a subject of observation and comment s the wording of statutes. Mr. Roosevelt has the trait which a British versifier once attributed to an English statesman: SIDNEY WESTnc 14th and G Sts. A NEw VERSION OF Custom TAILORING MAKE any comparison you wish between the most costlty type of custom-tailored clothes and West-Fruhauf «..you'll find no difference because both finished products are identical... it's your time, the uncertainties and the difference in price you save in rcady-for-scrvice West-Fruhauf clothing. Why not look into it?, “FINE AS CUSTOM HANDS CAN MAKE" West-Fruhauf Suits $50 to $95 Only at Sidney West, INC. 14t & G Sts. EUGENE C. GOTT, President “Able, as occasion doth arise, Life-long convictions to jmprovise.” In Mr. Roosevelt's case, it is & kind of boyishness which wishes & thing— and thereupon assumes that whatever he wishes, actually is. In his Omaha speech, Mr. Roosevelt wished to make his indorsement of Senator Norris em- phatic. A striking way to make it em- phatic would be to say he had never du;:‘ei-nnhml like it before. And he sald it, cial intelligence about the President, Miss Dorothy Thompson has deep and sympathetic insight into his person- ality. Of his “amazing sensitiveness” she says, “The President does not need to have his ear to the ground; every pore is an ear and his whole person a barometer.” He is a barometer in more than the ordinary meaning of “serising” political currents and breezes, and reacting to them. Mr. Roosevelt is a barometer to everything around him, to the crowds he addresses, the persons who call on him. And as the crowds have differing emotions, and the callers dif- fering purposes, so does the barometer give differing reflections. Explains Platform Sidesteps. Accompanying this trait goes an im- mense capacity for sincerity about the thing he happens to wish to believe at the time. This quality explains much that is mystifying in Mr. Roosevelt's record. It explains, for example, the apparent sincerity of Mr. Roosevelt's recent Chicago speech placating busi- ness. It may account, possibly, for the remark of Arthur Krock of the New York Times that Mr. Roosevelt has a way of “creating an impression with- out making s commitment.” It ac- counts for the perfectly open, flagrant departures from campaign pledges and other public promises and statements. Mr. Roosevelt meant his pledges—at the time he made them. But times | ehanged, the conditions changed. And Mr. Roosevelt, a lively barometer, | changed with them. He is as sincere | when he practices great spending as | he was when he promised great econ- omy. In a person occupying an ordinary position in life, this trait of personality may do no great harm. In a President it may be dangerous. Understanding of Mr. Roosevelt's capacity for believ- ing what he wants to believe, and of the ephemeralness of his sincerities, will help the country to understand him as a man. It can not beget con- fidence in his stability as a President. (Copyright, 1936, MRS. WALT MASON DIES Wife of Poet Passes Away in Cali- fornia. LA JOLLA, Calif., October 20 (/. — Mrs. Ella F. Mason, wife of Walt Mason, the poet, died yesterday at her home here following & heart attack. Mrs. Mason, the former Ella Foss of Wooster, Ohio; married Mason in 1893. They came here in 1921. The poet and a daughter, Mary Ellen Ma- son, survive. < Among persons who write with espe- to BETHOLINE BETHOLINE SALES HAVE TRIPLED since the muh‘uflw—bl‘-pfl.—-tfi-u- dinary gasoline. That's We, the People Roosevelt and Morgenthau Again Slam Door on Morgan as Money Spokesman. BY JAY FRANKLIN, they come to erect a statue to Henry Morgenthau, the New Deal Secretary of the Treasury, they need not bother to look for “imperishable bronze®; his cwn imperturbable brass will be more than enough for even a Gutzon Borglum to do justice to his policy. The latest Treasury announcement of the gold export arrangement between the British, French and American stabilization funds is couched in such soothing sentences that the casual reader is left with the impression that we have re- turned to the international gold standard snd that the interna- tional bankers ought to be very, very happy. It is only fair to say that this this is not the sort of gold ex- - - change standard the internati bankers have been talking about all these ';‘n . G To begin with, no gold ean be erported except on account of the stabilization funds involved. International speculators are left out in the cold.” In the second place, the three governments con- cerned are mow acting as their own central banks. This reduces our unoficial central bankers—J. P. Morgan & Co—to the status of respectable, provincial money lenders in European eyes. What- ever ointment is applied here, the jact remains that our No. 1 international banking firm is about as pleased as a tap dancer with housemaid’s knee by Morgenthau's latest blow below the money belt. For the Treasury alone enjoys protection in its day-to-day exchange operations, Few Americans have realized the perfectly fantastic international position which the Morgan firm has occupied in international affairs for the last 20 years. For all practical purposes, they have been vested with the financial sovereignty of the United States, and their partners walked the earth with a super-ambassadorial stature and dignity. They quickly moved in on Wilson's Federal Reserve System, and, by capturing the directorate of the New York and Chicago Reserve Banks, became. in effect, our private central bank of issue. After the armistice, they turned against Wilson and helped bring back “normalcy.” Those were the days when we irreverent underlings in the State Department used to recite this sinister ditty: “I don't want to drown in the Pacific Or be shot on Siberian soil, For the glory of J. Pierpont Morgan Or a barrel of Standard oil.” It was Morgan's rather than the American Government which con- ducted our foreign policy in the '20s. Morgan's arranged the Germas reparations payments under the Dawes plan and the Young plan. When the Bank of International Settlements was set up at Basel, it was Mor- gan's rather than Ameriea which took the dominant position. When European nations stabilized their currencies Morgan gold eredits were always involved, and from 1922 to 1932 this extraordinary firm held a controlling interest in the major foreign and domestic policies of the United States. ‘This led to some amusing com- plications. The British govern- ment, being realists, continued to use Morgan's as their flscal agents and sometimes seemed to be in effective partnership with the firm. Even after Mr. Roosevelt turned against the “money changers,” the British government continued to work loyally with Morgan's, thus exhibiting the diplomatic curiosity of & foreign government in apparent alliance with a private agency which was itself fighting the American Government. For_it was—and still is—little short of war. The battle began when the bankers failed to prevent Roosevelt’s nomination in 1932. The first New Deal counter-attack took us off the gold standard and applied a gold embargo, This was soon modifled, but Roosevelt's “bombshell” telegram to the London Ecomomic Conference showed that there would be nn international stabilization on gold for the benefit of “so-called” international bankers” and his gold purchase policy showed that he was determined to make the American Government an active agent in control of its financial destiny. The Eccles act transferred control of the Federal Reserve from the Morgan-owned New York and Chicago banks to the National Government, Morgan utilities and Morgan lawyers attacked the New Deal reforms in the courts and a gold standard pledge was extorted from Gov. Landon. Now the Treasury has established itself as the real American central bank for international purposes, and has wiped out the privileged international status of J. P. Morgan & Co. There s plenty of power and profit left for the bankers. All is not lost. Continuity of economic administration will be maintained in America. But Roosevelt and Morgenthau e done it again, and from now on the Treasury, rather than 40 Wall street, will speak for the United States in the money markets of the world, (Copyright, 1936.) Headline Folk and What They Do Incorrigible Supporter of Underdog Is for Roosevelt. BY LEMUEL F. PARTON. N COL. J. E. SPINGARN'S indorses ment of President Roosevelt, une easy Roosevelt supporters might find a disquieting hint that Mr, Spingarn thinks the President looks like & loser. He is an incorrigible supporter of the underdog. President Nicholas Murray Butler dropped him from the Columbia faculty, 25 years ago, because he defended Harry Thurs- ton Peck, a short-ender in a bout with President Butler. Since then, he has been the champion of the underpriv- ileged and oppressed to such an extent that his support might indicate hu- mane sympathy. In the past, he has let all the bandwagons go by. The defection of Col. Spingarn, & lifetime Republican, has stirred up considerable interest, in view of the fact that he is president of the Nae tional Association for the Advance- ment of Colored People, and just now the colored people are closer to the fulcrum of political forces than per- haps ever before. There have been some ready assumptions that Col. Spin- garn was piping the Negroes into the Roosevelt camp. My friend, Arthur Spingarn, the Colonel's brother, has shared the lat- ter's fight for Negro welfare over two decades or more, and, sitting in with Arthur Spingarn in some of these en- deavors, I am convinced that the Colonel's political allegiance repre« sents his personal inclination alone. The Spingarn brothers have been zealous in keeping the above organie zation clear of politics, The tall, precise, erudite Col. Spine garn, writer and fighter, is the author of many books, chiefly in the fleld of literary criticism and belles letters in general, and a member of the O. R. C.,, with war experience as s major of infantry. He had been for 12 years professor of comparative literature at Columbia, when his friend, Dr. Peck, got into a resounding breach of promise row and the then Prof. Spingarn was a side-line casu- alty. He ditched the Ph. D. and professor titles, picked up the colonel later along the line and sank his energies into an impassidhed fight for black folks. Everything he does is impassioned. If he backs Roosevelt the way he backs Clematis, the President can't lose. A few years ago, he discovered Clematis, and now, on his Amenia, N. Y., estate, he has 62 varieties. He lectures, proselytes, evangelizes, pleads, writes agitates and organizes in bee half of Clematis. Watch him slip in a word for Clematis, if he makes speeches for Roosevelt (Copyright, 1936.) Gets Year in Forgery. WILSON. N. C., October 20 () .— Pleading guilty to charges of forging indorsement on three checks totaling $1,097.75, J. L. 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