Evening Star Newspaper, May 12, 1935, Page 29

Editorial Page Civic Part 2—12 Pages ' ROOSEVELT’S Activities POPULARITY - SEEN DEFINITELY WANING “Power Movement” Is Gaining and G. O. P’s Hopes Are Revived, Says Observer After Note—The writer of this article, and of two which will follow it, submits in them his observations on the country’s present temper toward the administration, its pol- icies and the eflect of these policies. He writes after a tour of several months which took him to all parts of the United States. Mr. Sokolsky is writing a current series in the Atlantic Monthly on eco- momic conditions, and he is the author of a recently-published book, “Labor’s Fight for Power.” He also is well known for his writ- ing on Far Eastern affairs. BY GEORGE E. SOKOLSKY. SEVEN months’ tour through A has taken me to every part except the l‘(orlhwesterni States. - | It is impossible to say that President Roosevelt is not popular with the | American people. But it is clear to gonal popularity is on the wane. Business men used to blame the | *“brain trust” for their ioability to single fact that bureaucratic rigid- {ties impede recovery. Now, in sadness | more than utter disaporoval. they | suggest that Tucwell or some one like him kept the President ill-lniormed.‘ Now. they are beginning to wonder if the facts in a situation, whether it is now he. himself, who prevents the; small business man from getting on | ence of the N. R. A. . Last year they laughed at the A. ATA in farm States. Uncle Sam’s ers bought shiny motor cars with them. This year, processing is no Jonger a joke. In the cotton States unwelcomed leader. and that exnlains why Huey Long and Gov. Talmadge of Georgia talk secession. are going up. The sales tax is be- [ ginning to be felt by the housewife. and although this is evervwhare a is nevertheless being blamed for high | taxes. After all. economic conditions | are national, and the sma'l business | the laborer—these elements in the | ponulation who have survived the Jepression and the recoverv—note taxes. is rising with accelerated | rapidity. Price of Familiarity. will have to pay the price of familiar- jtv. The public is accustomed to him. Thev say that he makes a fine speech | cellent voice, but that he always says the same thing. I have heard this | criticism in every part of the country: | wonderful picture in his talks but that he never gets down to brass tacks—he never tells in advance exactly what ‘unmistakably. | Furthermore, the average business | man, who has survived the depression, | and 1934. He is regaining confidence in himself and his intellectual powers. | He is no longer willing to be told how | his business. He must be smart. he feels, or he would have gone under as so many of his colleagues went un- authorities and the racketeering czars in industry and commerce—the man- agers of code authorities and their the cost of these operations and he blames the President for their con- tinued existence. from the N. R. A. had the effect of removing a buffer between the Presi- dent and the small business man, and | rectly at the President. As I traveled about the country I found that liberals are terribly disap- not go far enough to see the New Deal through, they say. Or he plays favorites and only listens to an in- complaint they all harbor is that they believe he promised to do what each | man wanted him to do and did not | In a word, his charming manner, his smile, his engaging personality led all these men and women to believe ideas at each person’s own valuation. And it has turned out not to be so. Many of these men will now vote person who seems to be more radical. Defeat in ’36. ‘When I began to travel last October, Mr. Roosevelt failing of re-election. It was taken for granted that all he had to do was to run and he would a candidate for his office. That is not the atmosphere today. On all sides speculation is active defeat. It would be inaccurate to suggest that the pendulum has swung s0 far that a majority of the citizens would be to exaggerate and distort the picture. My observation is that if the election were held today, Mr. people discuss the merits of other candidates and their chances today than a year ago. center, we find to the right of him the Republicans. They divide into two general camps, the conservative Herbert Hoover and Ogden Mills represent the conservatives in the public mind as Presidential possibili- name started a quarrelsome argument. Now they are both taken seriously. Mr. Hoover somehow is coming back Palo Alto and I saw something of him in San Francisco. He is younger, more cheerful, more energetic than More people speak kindly of him than before. More are friendly. Mr. Mills’ are making a favorable im- pressiol distant and cold express surprise at the outspoken character of his the country, just completed, Every one spoke of the presidency an impartial observer that his per- | impress upon the administration the blame the President. They used to | the President really wants to know all his feet again by continuing the exist- | checks came in handy and the farm- President Roosevelt has become an Everywhere taxes and food prices State or municipal tax. the President | man, the salaried white-collar man, | that the cost of livine, which includes | President Roosevelt. it is aoparent. | on the radio and that he has an ex- | namely, that the President paints a he is going to do, clearly, specifically, | is no longer afraid as he was in 1933 | to save himself and how to manage der. He is tired of codes and code lawyers. He is growing restive under The elimination of Gen. Johnson complaints are now being hurled di- pointed with the President. He will side group. But the really irritating | keep his promise. that he had accepted them and their sagainst Mr. Roosevelt, and for any no one thought of the possibility of roll up the largest vote ever gained by as to the probability of Mr. Roosevelt’s desire his defeat. To suggest that Roosevelt would be elected, but more If we place Mr. Roosevelt in the and liberal Republicans. ties. Last year the mention of either in popular favor. I visited him in when I saw him in the White House. n. Many who say that he is speeches and recall that he was the in a Santa Barbara hospital and out Survey of U. S. first Republican to stand up and fight. Among the liberal Republicans, Col. Frank Knox, publisher of the Chicago Daily News; Senator Vandenberg of Michigan, Senator Nye and Senator Borah attract the most attention. The names of Col. Knox aand Senator ‘Vandenberg are mentioned more often and more favorably than those of Senators Nye and Borah. I have heard that certain Republican liberals believe the Republican party can most easily succeed if it nominates a South- ern Democrat and these speak of Sen- ator Byrd of Virginia as a possibility. | Their explanation is that anti-Roose- velt strength will be greatest in the South. G. 0. P. Not Hopeless. No matter whether a Republican is a conservative or a liberal, he is no longer hopeless. Last year he was without hope. Now he believes that in spite of the five billion dollar campaign fund, his party has a chance. To the left of Mr. Roosevelt are many of his former supporters and every braad of radical. Foremost among the prospective candidates of the left is Huey Long. It is only in New York and Washing- ton that the Kingfish's horse-play is accepted as characterizing the man. In New Orleans he is taken seriously because it is dangerous to forget that he can play as many roles as George Arliss and remain the same Kingfish. found him astute, keen, full of minute knowledge of the politics of different parts of the country, and perilously vindictive. Huey Long has two objectives: First, to dominate the cotton South; second, to see Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated in 1936. He will probably succeed in dominating the South politically be- cause he is the smartest politician in that part of the country. There are no limits to which he will not go to avenge what he regards as a double- cross by the President and Postmaster General Farley. I do not believe that Huey Long wants or expects to be President. He does want Mr. Roose- velt out of the White House. Father Coughlin is not allied to | Huey Long and is not supporting him for the presidency. It is generally believed that his favorite for that office is Senator Wheeler of Montana. He also plays with Senator Thomas of Oklahoma and Senator Nye. Father Coughlin unquestionably has tried to control the Roosevelt admin- istration through mass pressure. He has been repelled, more gently than | Huey Long, but none the less posi- tively. Coughlin Powerful Foe. Father Coughlin is a greater menace to President Roosevelt than Huey Long because the priest, born in Canada, cannot run for President him- self. He therefore has his large. fol- lowing to offer. to some ambitious Senator who thinks he has a chance, The bait is juicy because the mathe- matical calculation of his strength is based on fan mail and fan contribu- tions. No one has really had access to the mailing list and it has not been analyzed statistically. For instance, is a man a Coughlin fan who has written for a copy of a speech? | At any rate political observers | everywhere admit that Coughlin has a large following of undetermined mil- lions. No one attempts to speculate | on how long he can hold that follow- ing or how long he will be permitted to remain in politics. But any presen* calculation must include him as a tremendous factor in the waning of Roosevelt popularity. Upton Sinclair has been reported ill of politics. This is untrue. Sinclair continues E. P. I. C. activity in Cali- fornia. E. P. I. C. and the utopians and the disappointed Townsendites cut a big swath in California and ‘Washington and it is more than prob- able, from my observations, that they will have a national ticket in the fleld and that they will cut into the Roosevelt and the Socialist vote. Sinclair, like Long and Coughlin, complains of his treatment by Mr. Roosevelt. The Hyde Park conversa- tions and the “Call-Me-Jim”" rela- tions with Farley and the subsequent withdrawal of support have made an | unfortunate impression on him, to say the least. Sinclair may not run for President, but E. P. I. C. will run some candidate. Communist Gains. It is important to note here that for the first time since the Com- munist party existed in the United States, it has an able organizer as secrftary. Earl Browder was for a period in China and I had ample opportunities to observe his work there. Under the most trying cir- cumstances, he managed to hold to- gether and even increase the strength of an illegal party of men and women whose language he could not speak. Browder is now rebuilding the Com- munist party in the United States and he shows more ability than the noisy agitators one usually essociates with the Reds. Everywhere, I found evidence of Browder's organizing capacity. The Communists are further reduc- ing Norman Thomas’ Socialist vote, but they are increasing their own following among non-Communists who are weary of what they term Mr. Roosevelt’s end Mr. Thomas’ lukewarm Socialism. This is a tightly summarized state- ment of ol tions made during the last seven months of constant travel. From them it is possible to reach these basic conclusions: 1. President Roosevelt still has a tremendous hold on the r imagination which he is beginning to lose—and the down movement is gaining rapidly. 2. Speculation as to a possible suc- cessor would seem to indicate that it is no longer universally conceded that his election is sure. 3. His most virile opponents today supported him in 1932 and in some instances even for the nomination. 4. Some of his opponents are person- ally so vindictive that their an- tagonism takes on the characteristics | stores or buy cheap electric bulbs or | of a holy crusade against him. 5. The Republicans can hold. the 15,000,000 residual votes that Mr. Hoover got in 1932 and they can cap- ture the conservative elements now turning from Roosevelt. 6. Coughlin, Long, Sinclair and many others are organizing to defeat Mr. Roosevelt or to coerce him into an acceptance of their leadership, which it is politically inexpedient for 4 b EDITORTAL SECTION he Sunday Sho WASHINGTO ) D. C, SUNDAY MORNING, MAY 12, 1935. Trade Threat of Japan Nippon Forging Financial Empire in-Wake of Infiltration of Cheap Gadgets in World Trade. ! “Eminent BY UPTON CLOSE, Author of *“The Revolt of Asia.” Aslans,” Etc OUR American Secretary of State, Mr. Cordell Hull, while in the midst of endeavors to effect a gentlemen's agree- ment on trade with Japan, even at the cost of shutting down our Carolinian and New England cot- ton mills, has been somewhat stunned | by the accusation from Japan’s foreign | office that Americans are interfering | in Japan’s trade conquest of South America. The accusation was accompanied by a threat of reprisal. The reprisal | would be a diminution in Japanese | purchases of American cotton. As Japan, which has captured first posi- | tion in world manufacture and mar- keting of cotion goods and yarn, is | the chief buyer of our largest export crop, this is an unpleasant threat in- | deed, and a very considerable monkey wrench in Secretary Wallace's already imperiled machinery for keeping the South contended by maintaining a 12-cent price for cotton, Thus one more bone of contention is added to the growing pile of dis- putes and accusations estranging the | two Pacific nations and affecting more | and more Americans, although they may remain for the time unconscious of them. It comes immediately on top of the Japanese refusal to enter- | tain further our official protests re-f garding their Manchurian oil monop- | oly and the expropriation of properties and markets of our oil companies | there—and is another step in the creation by Japan of a world eco- nomic empire. Cheap Goods From Japan. Americans who patronize 10-cent dishes for the kitchenette or gadgets for their cars, or toys or stationary supplies, or tennis shoes, or cheap towelings and napkins, or any one of a hundred other things in the line of nicknacks, are familiar with the be- ginnings of Japan’s world economic empire. It may be hard for them to believe that Japan can go any farther than the nicknack stage. But cheap bulbs, pencils, toys and dishes were merely the scouts in an advance which is proving one of the most funda- mentally important developments of the century—and which is seriously | menacing the trade of other nations. From this first stage, Japanese in- dustry turned to supplanting England as first producer of cotton goods and the United States as first producer cf rayon, and began to compete in machinery, steel tubing and automo- biles. The third stage in her development —which few ot even our best-in- formed officials and business men have begun to appreciate as yet—is the building by Japan of a globe-en- circling investment empire. Japanese interests seem to feel it wise to de- velop it silently for a while. It was Japanese concern over this enterprise —already proceeding rapidly in South America, as well as in Asiatic and island regions—which lay behind the blast of the Tokio foreign office spokesman against Americans, re- ferred to at the beginning of this article. In setting up her economic empire, Nippoa (for that has been decreed as her official name) is doing in a decade what Britain—the other great island empire that girdled the world, and her model—required a century to ac- complish. Modern machinery speeds up history these days! Japan has flung outposts of her “yen” empire around the world; iron mines on a Northern Australian island; factories, fishing, rice-grow- ing and a canal project in Siam; modernization of cotton mills in In- dia; irrigated cotton plantations in Abyssinia; construction of a merchant marine for Brazil; erection of a great Western Hemisphere plant on the River Platte, in Uruguay. Japan’s Tactics New. In creating this empire of trade and finance, Japan is using all the tactics of pound and dollar diplo- macy of the past and, in addition, has added one brand-new tactic of her him to do without too great a sacrifice of his political personality. 7. It is evident that these elements cannot join forces, but they may be able to reduce Mr. Roosevelt’s popular vote sufficiently to lose for him enough States in the South, the Middle West, the Pacific Coast and the Northwest to make other States, which seem to be overwhelmingly pro-Roosevelt, doubtful. t. 1085, (wfllh’ 1985, wtholgrthmrhlll own. Japan plans to send credit, en-| gineers and machinery—as the Amer- ican and British financiers have done | —and, additionally, unless restricted, | free port” and factory base—a new thing in the modern political anc in- dustrial world. On her island in the River Platte | £ recently stayed the hand of the Hol- land officials from putting prohibitive tariffs on Japanese goods. So des- perate did the situation become, how- her own workmen and their families, | Japan will manufacture cotton and | ever, with factories in Leyden closed to live in a re-created Japanese at-| textiles, electro-motive machinery, | and workmen on the dole, that the mosphere and be paid on the Jap-| automobiles and anything else she | Dutch administrators have * served anese standard. planned, “Little Osakas” will occupy | strategic positions in Latin America, Asia, Australia and Africa. The American motor industry es- tablished factories for the production of motor cars in countries whose tar- | iffs were prohibitive—including Japan. | ‘When the Latin American countries | find that they are buying more from Japan than they are selling to her, and put up bars against this drain of wealth, Mitsui brings Japanese in- dustty across the Pacific and places it in their midst, saying: “We will| convert your raw materials right here into the finished products you need.| More than that, we will make here goods for the trade invasion of the| rest of America, Europe and Africa. ‘We will build up trade balances which | will help your difficult exchange situ- ation.” | ‘The greater part of the manufac- turing and mining and fishing indus- tries on the continental Pacific Asian coast is Japanese, or is coming under the control of Japanese banks or mar- | keting combines. Outside of China. | the largest “Little Osaka™ in the world is being built on an island in the River Platte near Montevideo, Uruguay. Sixteen months ago Mitsui & Co. were granted, after nezotiation threugh Japanese diplomatic channels, | the use of the island as a combination | the invasion therewith of the Atlantic | basin countries. Japan has agreed to | use Uruguayan wool, manganese and other raw material nd, under pres- sure, to use Uruguayan labor with the 1 exception of technicians and bosses— which leaves quite a door open. The Japanese factories will pay no na- tional duties on raw materials im- | ported or finished goods exported: 5o, | in this respect, it appears that they will be. better off than their parent | factories in Japan. { Japanese capitalists and diplomats ran into trouble in puttiog through this remarkable deal. The President of Uruguay, known to favor co-opera- tion with the United States, vetoed | the parliamentary act required to | legalize the concession. It was sug- | gested that the United States Depart- ment of State had quietly made Uncle Sam'’s susceptibilities known—at least, Japanese give us credit for bringing about the veto. But the Japanese en- trepreneurs found a way. After mem- | bers of the Uruguayan Parliament | had been personally visited on the matter, they voted the concession to Japan over their Chief Executive’s | head. A statue to Admiral Togo in | the City of Roses and Statues cele- brates Nippon's new positica in | Uruguay. 3 In the Dutch East Indies, fear until | CAMPAIGN BOOMERANG SEEN IN NEXT SESSION Many Holdover Issues Full of Dynamité Feared in Spite of Congress Strategy. BY JOHN SNURE HE next session of Congress is beginning to loom before the | lawmakers as a troubled vision. It is worrying members of both | " houses, and especially those who have their thoughts fixed an politics and political reactions, quite as much as the closing months of this session. The reason is that it now has be- come apparent that it will be impos- sible to confine the next session—the one to be held just at the outset of the presidential campaign—to a few inocuous propositions, a large number of speeches for the Record, and then an early adjournment. Until now the Democratic leaders in the House and the Senate, with encourdgement from the White House, have been seeking to arrange things so that the session just before the presidential contest will be as devoid as possible of political dynamite, so far as legis- lation goes. But it looks now as if such a pro- gram will be out of the question. Though the present session, according to all indications, will run until late Summer, it inevitably will leave un- finished a long list of important pro- posals Sponsors and backers of these proposals will not take kindly to sug- gestions that they be put off until after the presidential election and Pat Harrison of Mississippi, chairman of the Finance Committee, was that it would not solve the controversy over the adjusted service certificates. It was declared by Senator Frederick | | Steiwer of Oregon, Senator Bennett C. Clark of Missouri and other World War veterans that enactment of the compromise would not satisfy the former service men and would be fol- lowed by immediate demand for pay- ment of the full cash value of the certificates, and that this demand would be made in the coming session. N. R. A. Looms Large. While it is not yet entirely clear what Congress will do finally about extension of the N. R. A., the prospects are Mtrong for temporary extension, with restrictions, until next Spring. If temporary extension is ordered, it will follow that, virtually as soon as the next session opens in January Congress must take up anew the whole problem of the Blue Esgle and the N. R. A. codes, and decide what is to be done. By that time, too, the prob- lem will doubtless be further com- plicated by important decisions of the Supreme Court, not only in the Schechter case, but others. The political] embarrassments of having to settle the fate of the N. R. A. in the midst of a presidential and con- gressional campaign are apparent. Suffice it to say that the thought of until the Seventy-fifth Congress enters on its duties in January, 1937, or near- ly two years hence. Bonus Held Stymied. Passage by the Senate of the Pat- man bonus bill, with its inflation fea- ture, early this week, was at once declared by administration leaders in the Senate to mean prevention of bonus legislation. They said the President’s veto would be sustained in the Senate, and could not be over- ridden. Obviously, failure to get rid of the bonus issue this session means that the next session will be under intense pressure from bonus supporters. Now il they be satisfied with any techni- cal parliamentary reasons for evading it or ting? About the last thing some Senators and Representa- tives who are up for renomination and re-election next year want is to be put on & “hot spot” with respect to the bonus just before nominating season. One of the arguments advanced in the Senate bonus debate againsi the bill, sponsored by Senator 7 wrestling with this problem while the voters prepare to draw their ballots is sufficient to make & candidate un- happy. O of the reasons the administra- tion is seeking to get the N. R. A. extended for two years is to make it unnecessary to stir up a violent con- troversy on the subject at the Capitol next Winter and Spring. However, it is to be kept in mind thai even a two-year extension would not meet the difficulties of one or more Supreme Court decisions which might challenge some vital features of the recovery act and the N. R. A. fabric which has been built on that act. In other words, court decisions may force the N.R. A. issue squarely into the next session despite a two-year extension. A mass of difficult labor problems will remain unsolved even though this session lasts all Summer. For months organized labor, more than usually strong and aggressive, has also been more and more dissatisfied. ‘The recent decision of the Supreme Eventually, it is|chooses, particularly with a view to notice that they must shut down on imports from Japan. So Gov. Hisao Special Ar ticles Travel — Resorts HITLER’S POLICY FORCING BRITAIN INTO ALLIANCES Danube Conference Likely to Complete Ring of Foes Around Germany and Bring Eastern Crisis. Hayashi of “Japan’s East Indies,” the mandated islands, makes a trip to Tokio and advises that capital be slipped under the new tariff walls of Java, Sumatra and Dutch Borneo. to be used in building up a native in- dustry beh'nd them. It will be harder for the Dutch to cope with this. Can the rulers forbid the growth of in- dustry among their subjects, with the subjects appearing as partners and | directors? British Forced to Compromise. This same situation drove the British to compromise with Japan over the cotton goods market of India —and incidentally planted one toe of Japan's new world industrial em- pire squarely in John Bull's prize game preserve. Japan has entered into relations with Indian cotton mill owners to modernize their plants—for an interest in the busiaess—and with the Rajah of Kutch, north of Bombay. to build the first Indian port under | control of a native prince where goods may be landed without paying British- imposed duties. Before tracing some of the footsteps of Japan's new economic imperialism we might call attention to the aston- ishing fact that a nation which went heavily in debt to older nations a generation ago, in order to industrial- ize herself, is now herself a creditor and investing nation. At present Japan's investments in Manchukuo | alone total more than her entire for- | eign indebtedness. Already 30-year-old Hanni Ito has boasted that he will “dethrone Lon- don” as the world’s financial center. Last year Japan sold a half million more yards of piece goods than Eng- | land; this year she will make more rayon yardege than the United States (hitherto far and away first in pro- duction), mostly for export. She is striving to capture first place in the export of finished rubber goods, small | motor cars, electric equipment and| other lines. Let her become the first trading nation in a few more of the world’s largest export items. and,| though her domestic consumotion re- | main a fraction of that in American | or European nations, she will de-| throne London. For he who con- trols trade controls world banking exchanges. It is significant that this Hanni Ito —who reminds the American much of Huey Long, heads a cult of implicit | followers, runs in the greatest news- papers two-page advertisements about himself which he writes himself, end apparently makes fortunes by turn- ing over his hand while preaching redistribution of wealth between the white and yellow races—has founded an organization for establishing the new financial center of the world in Shanghel rather than in Japan proper. Philippine Market Near. The nearest to home of Japan's new economic world bases outside of Man- churia and China, where no one can now question her, is in our own semi- possession, the Philippines. The Jap- anese settlement of Davao, in the great southern' island, Mindanao, is grimly called “Davaokuo” by Manila news- papers. Here is located the Japanese hemp industry and the “United States Rubber Co. of Japan.” After consid- ering evidence that the plantations of the islands were acquired by Japanese through doubtful methods, such as marriage of Filipino women by Japa- nese laborers, who then turned over the land to their companies, the Phil- ippine secretary of agriculture pro- posed enforced sale of Japanese land holdings for $5,000,000. The Japanese consul immediately warned the Fili- pino official that Japan would contest such an effort strongly, and placed five times this value ufion|Japan’s Min- danao investments. Throughout the Southern Pacific island world Japanese shopkeepers are taking from the Chinese their imme- morial position as shopkeepers for the native population. They are backed by home factories and banks, and grant credits on what for that part of the world is small interest. This gives Japan a very sizable credit in- vestment in the South Seas. Over in friendly Siam—more friendly than ever since the elimina- tion of the pro-British King—Japa- nese money is operating fisheries and rice plantations, getting into teak (Continued on Tenth Page.) ~ (Continued on Third Page), L1 | too, the Soviet Union's hands are also | BY FRANK H. SIMONDS. ITH the great field day in the House of Commons | and the simultaneous and significant signing of the | FPranco-Russian pact the “Incident” precipitated by Hitler's rearmament announcement of March 16 came to an end. On the one hand | Germany had with impunity torn up | the military secticas of the treaty of Versailles and resumed her complete freedom in the matter of army and | navy alikee On the other, Great Britain had been visibly forced toward the continental coalition which has been taking form ever since the putsch in Vienna last July and which now prospectively includes France, Italy, the Soviet Union and the Little Entente. Apart from the British detail the most important single result of this latest crisis has been the enormous accentuation of the tension in Eu- rope. Actually, ever since Hitler finally took complete control following the German election of March 5, 1933, the | whole atmosphere of Europe has been becoming more and more charged with electricity. The putsch in Vienna, the assassination of King Alexander and the recent arms episode have each in turn not merely illustrated the state of mind prevailing in the Old World, but left that state of mind still further | exacerbated. | What was significant in the House | of Commons debate was the frank ad- mission that Great Britain is now in- ferior to Germany in the air, and that only by close understanding with France and Italy can she be secure during the considerable period neces- sary to catch up. As half of the Brit- | ish air force must always be distributed | to serve imperial and naval needs, tac- | tical parity with Germany in the air must mean for Britain a force at least 50 per cent larger than that of the Reich. Meantime, as Britain obvious- ly must depend upon France and Italy | for security, she will also have to act | closely with them in any later crisis | in which their security may be im- periled. Haldane’s Excursion Recalled. If one were to seek to interpret the | | latest crisis in terms of pre-war his- | |tory, it is evident that the parallel | | between Lord Haldane's excursion to | Berlin in the earlier period and Sir John Simon’s in the later is impres- sive. Both British statesmen set out | to discover for a cabinet and country, which were eager to come to terms | | with the Germans in the matter of | armaments—naval then, aerial now— whether adjustment were possible. ‘When Haldane came back to London |and reported that satisfactory agree- | | ment was not to be had, Britain pro. i ceeded deliberately to make her ar- | rangements with France and Russia. Obviously, the same process is in | operation now, although once more | the British cabinet insists that formal | commitments do not exist. { Actually there is no real need of | |them. For German action has sup- | | plied the cement necessary to bind | together British and continental inter- | ests, and where the interests are| identical the need of written contracts | is slight. Thus, beneath the surface | there will now be very close association | between British, French and Italian air ministries and staffs, and plans | | for common action in case of crisis | will be elaborated as were the plans for joint military action between | French and British armies before 1914. Any German offensive move wes. of | the Rhine would therefore insure im- mediate and combined action by the | other four signatories of the Locarno | pacts-—namely, Britian, France, Italy | | and Belgium. | As to the situation in the Danubian ! Basin, where Italian security is at stake, that remains obscure, although much light may be thrown upon it by the approaching Rome conference. If Germany should undertake to de- stroy the present nominal independ- ence of Austria, unquestionably Italy and the Little Entente would resort to force and Prance would almost auto- matically act with them. So far, how- ever Britain is not bound to go beyond | consultation, although she is com- mitted in principle to the maintenance of Austrian independence. Technically, free, although its interests are touched more closely than those of Britain. Pact Clarifies Situation. As for the situation in the east, that | has been somewhat clarified by the Franco-Russian pact. If Germany actually invades Soviet territory France will make of it a casus belli, and the Soviets similarly will regard a German violation of French frontiers. In such case both nations will act first and wait for the League decision later. Significantly enough, too, Ramsay MacDonald announced in the House of Commons that such French action would not obligate Britain to defend Germany under the terms of the Locarno pact. Nor, of course, would it bind the British to support the French. The main business of the Rome con- ference, however, must be to co-ordi- nate the agreements covering the three regions of the Rhine, the Danube and the east. In practice, what seems like- ly to happen is that Italy and the na- tions of the Little Entente will agree to defend Austrian independence. They will try, but probably without success, to persuade Hungary to enter this com- bination. At the same time, France and the Soviet Union will guarantee this néw pact, as Britain and Italy underwrote that of Locarno. Germany certainly will be asked to join, but participation by the Reich would in- volve renunciation of all purpose to disturb the status quo either by direct attack or by indirect maneuver against the existing regime. And German as- sent to such a pact seems unlikely. Undoubtedly the Soviets will ask from Italy some form of agreement like that already made with France, which will assure them Italian aid.in Russian underwriting of the status quo in the Danubian area vital to Ital- ian safety. Whether PoJand and Ru- mania will directly participate in the Rome conference or not, and what stand they will take on the Danubian problem remains open to question. Po- land has yet to be won away from Germany,land Rumanian alliance with aimed at the France or Belgium—let alone Britain —then Italy, Britain, France and Bel- gium would certainly act together promptly and present an array of forces beyond any present possibility of Germany's matching. Were Ger- many to seek to overthrow the present Austrian government, Italy, Czechoslovakia and France would surely march, the Soviet Union would doubtless lend its aid in aircraft at least, but the British course would remain doubtful unless German suc- cess seemed likely. Under no circum- stances, however, could the British suffer the French to be defeated and German armies to get to Ostend or Calais. If Germany should attack the Soviet Union through Poland, or by way of the Baltic, although France is now bound to intervene, it is difficult to see how such intervention could be effective unless Czechoslovakia also came in. Then this small state would supply an air base for both France and Russian aircraft little more than a hundred miles from Berlin and Munich, and almost in sight of Dres- den and Leipzig. But, by contrast, neither France nor the Soviets could support the Czechs on the ground, and they would probably be overe whelmed briefly by German numbers. Now if one attempts to look at the situation through German eyes, cer- tain facts are evident. No German soldier or statesman would think, un- der present conditions, of attempting any offensive in the west that would be to court swift disaster and insure eventual ruin when the effects of a new blockade were felt. Stupid as was the decision to start submarine build- ing again, in the light of the psycho- logical effect of such a step in Britain, it did not represent any purpose to challenge the British. Hitler Needs Britain. What Hitler must do is to seek to create the impression in England that the western front lies outside the pur- | view of any program of violence or expansion which may exist in his own mind. He has effectively laid the foundation for a European coalition against his Germany like that which eventually demolished Napoleon’s em- pire. If England actually resolves that European peace and English se- curity are incompatible with Hitler's {survival in the Reich, then she will associate herself with France, Italy, the Little Entente and the Soviet Union in a formal alliance such as does not now exist. And against such a combination Germany could not trie umph and Hitler could not last. For the moment, the Austrian fleld offers Hitler a better chance, for the Austrians themselves are very far from happy now that they have become, for 11 practical purposes, an Italian pro- tectorate. If you think of the relations between Austria and Italy in the cen- turies before 1866, the implications of this reversal are patent. No single act of folly in recent years compares with Mussolini’s when he forced the luck- less Dollfuss to destroy the democrats and socialists in Vienna in February, 1934. That abolished the only solid obstacle to the Nazis in Austria and opened the way for the July putsch in which Dollfuss lost his life. Such in- formation as I get of the Austrian situation does not suggest immediate success for Hitler through domestic action, but it does foreshadow growing weakness for the Schuschnigg govern- ment. Fair-minded Americans, too, must | perceive that in the matter of the Anschluss, as in that of the armament question, the German case is some- thing far different from what it is represented to be by the opponents of the Reich. Legally, Germany was forbidden by the treaty of Versailles to arm to a point of parity with her recent comquerors, and the German- speaking populations of the old Haps- burg and Hohenzollern empires were denied the exercise of the right of self- determination, which in 1919 would certainly have led to their fusion. But this treaty law was imposed upon the Germans at the point of the bay- onet and constitutes something far different from law founded upon jus- tice and equality. Sees Germany in Right. When, therefore, the Austrian peo- ple ask for union with Germany, as they may do by majority vote one day, or when Germany demands that the | will of these people be consuited be- fore any Danubian pact is made to preserve the status quo, neither re- quest will be unreasonable. And the attempt to prevent Austro-German union by force and against the will of the Austrian people themselves can- not recommend itself to any one who believes that a people possesses the right to determine its own allegiance. Today, doubtless, fear of Hitler might hold back a majority of the Austrians, but as recently as 1931, when the re- publican regime still endured in Ger- many, Austria voluntarily sought a tariff union with the Reich. Personally, I believe that Germany possesses the inherent right to equal- ity in means of defense with all her neighbors, and that the attempt to restrict that right by treaty law im- posed by force was as unjust as it proved to be futile. I also believe that the right of the Austrian people to unite with the Germans is imprescript- ible, and the effort to thwart it simi- larly indefensible and doomed to fail- ure. Exactly in the same way I be- lieve the attempt to perpetuate by force the frontiers drawn in 1919 at the ex- pense of Hungarian populations and to the profit of the Czechs, the Serbs and the Rumanians cannot be jus- tified, and eventually must fail. Sooner or later the 75 millions of Germans of Central Europe will estab- lish their right to unity, and the same is true for some nine millions of Mag- yars. The efforts of the Italians, French and Little Entente peoples to block this process invests German and Hungarian policies with an appeal to these peoples which is obvious and presents them with a grievance which is_real. By contrast, when Hitler (Continued on Tenth Page.) Gu;de for Readers PART TWO. Editorial , y Soviets, constitutes an obstacle still to be surmounted. It must be clear, then, that as you proceed from west to east in Europe the situation becomes more and more confused. Were Germany to attack Civic Affairs. Organizations . Fraternal News . Cross-word Puzzle Resorts