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FINANCIAL. REVIVALIN TRALE 5 SEEN BY,FRIDAY Economist Tells Bankers In- dustrial Production Will 3¢ Gain 25 Per Cent. § BY EDWARD C. STONE. Dr. David Priday, noted Washington economist, financial writer and former educator, declares that the year 1931 will be one of gradus] revival from the low point of the business depres- sion, industrial production will in- crease 25 per cent during the next 12 months, interest rates will remain low, retail prices and the cost of Iiving will go low- er, bonds will tensely interesting address before the District Bankers' Association at the ‘Willard last night, Dr. David Friday. Dr. Friday dis- cussed the “Out- look for Profits, Prices and Interest Rates” and pointed out the factors which he believes will have the most important_bearing on economic condi- tions in the comparatively near future, “Lest some of you consider that a 25 per cent advance is an optimistic pre- diction,” he said, “let me remind you that such a gain would still leave us 10 per cent below normal and far un- der the high point which we reached in the Summer of 1929. The average output shown by the Federal Reserve Board in its industrial index for the llx months from April to September of hat year was 124; for the month of J\Ine 1t reached a peak of 127. During this last December it had declined w 82. 1f it should increase as I have in- dicated it would stand at 103 by the end of the year. Surely this is & mod- flt expectation.’ B.ut such an increase in produc- " the speaker added, “will greatly impmve the whole tone of, the Amer- fcan businese community, indeed of whole world. will bring definite conviction that American industry once more re- sumed its normal ¥ progress growth. It convince tl&llt the d.lu idends of corporatjons are safe and that they - can safely become investors in stocks L. P. McLachlen. have an important effect upon the se- curity markets. It will destroy the op- portunity to buy reasonably tood stocks at a yleld of anywhere from 7 i, to 12 per cent in dividepds. Sees Lower Retail Prices. *“What will happen to prices of com- modities in such a year? Many people believe that no revival is possible with- out & rise in prices. Those who think thus are bound to be disappointed. We have already experienced a drastic downward readjustment in the prices of raw materials. There is a whole string of them, including copper, cot- ton, rubber, wool, sugar, raw silk, sil- ver, which are at prices lower than cost of production. In these lines the price adjustment has been completed and we may look for a rise with a re- vival of business. But by no means to their old levels. Copper will stay far under 18 cerits a pound. But for fin- 4shed products, there will certainly be & further decline in prices, even at ‘wholesale. Retail prices and the cost of living generally will also go lower. This readjustment of prices down- ward is always necessary to & business revival. A large part of it has already ‘been made, and the rest of it will be - completed in these early months. When it is finished the income of the con- suming public, reduced, as it is, will buy & much larger volume of goods than it “Ould have purchased 18 months pre- viou T¢ ahould be noted fn passing that the money income of the people has not fal- Xen u much as the index of production 5 yrolls of factories would indi- ividends have declined hardly n nll and during this last year they amounted to $6.000,000,000. Interest payments on bonds and mortgages have actually risen The salaries of public officials, including teachers in schools and colieges, are the same. While pro- duction at the worst was 30 per cent below the high, the money income of the people as & whole was probably re- duced by not more than 15 per cent. ‘When prices and the cost of living have fallen a full 15 per cent, it will obviously be impossible to meet the demand with a production which is 33 per cent below the prosperity level. Larger Profits Forecast. ‘The average man will feel that while we may have a revival of production during the next year, we can hardly have rising profits. To the man in the street lower prices mean lower profits, In this he is mistaken. Pyofits-depend much more upon the voluine of output than upon, the price Jevel, as long as that level is stable. Betweéen 1919 nhd 1929 the prices of finished manufac- tured goods fell 27 per cent, vet profits were larger in the latter year than they had been a decade earlier. This was true . despite the fact that money wag s in the manufacturing industry rose 13 per cent during this period. The answer to the riddle is to be found in the volume of output. This grew by over 40 per cent during the period. If one had told business men in 1919 that they would have a 27 per cent decline in the prices of their products and a 13 per cent rise n wages they would have been prostrated. Instead they had a very prosperous year. Such an increase ih production as has been here predicted will give us higher profits in 1931 th we had in 1930, The lower raw terial costs, the increased efficiency of labor and the reduction of overhead will bring that to pass. Interest rates are bound to remain Jow throughout the vear, Dr. asserted. This will be true for commercial loans by and for the return which the investor will b able to gt on bonds. We have had three great bond markets in this ccuntry since the war. One began in 1921, another in 1924 and still another in 1927. You could have foretold any one of them by studying the condition of the Federal Reserve banks. Lively Bond Market Predicted. ‘The condition of those institutions today presages another bond market of proportions. We have a plethora S gold, and the volume of Federal Re- credit in use is practically certain to drop to the lowest volume in the his- tory of the system, since the war. An increase of 25 per cent In productive activity will make some additional de- « mand for bank cfedit, but it will not be sufficient to tighten. either long-time or short-time eredit. With the nervous- ness and hyster'a over bank failures out of the way, and witi the ref scttled pol tical condit ons abroad, vestors will return to the bond market with confidence. Banks will a'so go to that market (n order to invest their surplus fund: their protestations to the contrary tanding. When the bond market has revived the en}g‘; of the bt cbuasindl, o Bty e e o A ( Continued on Fourteenth Page.). banks Friday | both | Note—All excep! ‘which shows those stocks were sold in odd lots. " NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE THE EVENING STAR, WASHINGTON, D. C. TUESDAY, ISTOCKS IRREGULA Recelved by Private Wire Direct to The Star Office. stocks: are sold in one ~Prev. 1931 - High. u; 124% 4614 211% 24% 3% % 108% 1% 108 9% 10% 55 51 25% 104 18% 68% 1s 91 121 w\dou btmd markets was l“& . B6% 40 16% 22 3% 92% Alr Reducllon 14 I/.) 1% Ajax Rubl % Brown Shoe (3). Al-mm-& “Viek ). Alaska Juneau (40c) Alleg Corp. Alleg Cp 330 ww 534, Alleg Cp $30 xw 6% . Allfed Ch & Dye (n6) Alpha Port Cmt (2 Amernda Corp (2) Am Bank N AmBrSh&F pf (T). 10- Am Brown Bov Elec. 43 AmBrBEDpf (7). Am Can (16). Am Car & Fdy (6 Am Chain pf (7). Am Chicle (13) . Am Colortype (2.40). Am Comel Alcohol ‘Am & For Pw pf (7). Am Hawalian S8 Am Home Pr (4.20).. Am Ice (3) Am Internat (2). A Fr & Foamite Am Locomotive (2).. Am Mch & Fdy 1.40.. Am Mach & Meta Am Met & Min (1)... Am Pow & Lt (11)... Am Pow & Lt pf (6). Am P & L pf A st (5) Am Rad & St San (1) Am Roll Mill (n2)., . Am Safety Razor (i) Am Seating. Am Shipbuilding Am Sm & Ref (4). Am Solv & Ch Am Steel Fdy (3). Am Stores (1214). Am Sugar Ret (6)... Am Sugar Ref pf (7) Am Tel & Cable (5).. Am Tel & Tel (9).... ‘Am Tobacco (5). Am Tobacco B (5). ‘Am Tobacco pf (6).. Am Type Fdy (8). Am Water Wks (3).. Am Wat Wks cfs (3) Am Wat W 1st pf (6) Am Woolen . Am Woolen pf. Anaconda Cop (2%). Anaconda W & C (1). Archer-Dan-M (2) Armour of TIL A. Armour of 111 B. Armour of Ill pt Asso Appl Ind (4). Asso Dry G (2%). Asso D G1st pf (8).. Atch To & S Fe (10). AtchT &S Fepf (5). AtFRefining (12).... Auburn Auto (£4). Autosales. Aviation Corp of Del Baldwin Loco (1%). Baldwin Leco pf (7). Balto & Ohio (7) Balto & Ohio pf (4).. Bang & Aroos (3%). Barker Bros (2) . Barnsdall (A) (1) Beatrice Cr pf (7). Beech-Nut Pkg (3) Bendix Aviation (1). Best & Co (2). . Bethlehem Steel (6). Bethlehem St pf (7). Blaw-Knox (134). ... Bohn Alum & Br1%. Bordén Co (k3) Borg, Warner (1). Botany Con M (A)... Briges Mf (11.62%). Briges & Strat (2) Brockway Mot Trk Bklyn-Man Tr (4) ... Bklyn Union Gi " CI T T T TOT - e, T armnmnSun Bruns Ter & Ry 8. Bueyrus (1). Budd (E G) M! Budd Wheel (1 Bullard Co. % Bulova Watcl % Burroughs A M t1%. Bush Terminal (2%) Hush Term deb (7). Copyer & Zinc. B) rs (A M) . Calif Packing (4). Calumet & Arizona. . Calumet & Hecla. ... Camp W&C Fy(1)... Canada Dry G A (3). Can Pacific (2%).... Case (JI) (8). - 179 Case (J 1) pf \7)‘.‘.1001 Caterpillar Trae (t4) 11 Celotex Co. Celotex Co p! Cent Aguirre As 1% Cer de Pas Cop (2).. Certain-teed Prod. ... Checker Cab (1.80).. Ches & Ohio (2%)... Chesapeake Corp (3) Chi & Alton. . 2 wonoe SaSulanala % Chi& Alton pf Chi Great Western. . Chi Great West pt hi Mil St P & Pac hi Mil StP& P pt.. hi & Northwest (4). hi& N Wpt (7).... hi Pneu Tool. hi R 1& Pac (1). hi Yellow Cab (3).. ‘hickasha Cotton Oil ‘hilds Co (2.40).. hrysler Corp (1)... ity Ice&Fuel (3.60), City Ice & F pf (6% City Stor Cluett-Peabdy p! Coca-Cola (6) Colgate-Pal-P (2%). Collins & Alkman. Colonial Beacon. Colo Fuel & Iron (l)‘ Col Gas & El (2).. Col Graphoph (A% ) . Columbian Carb (16) “omel Credit (2).... onicl Cred pf (1%).10 Comel Cred 18t (6% ) B0s Comel Credit A (3).. 10 Comecl In Tr (£1.60). Comel 1T cv pf (e6). Comecl Solvents (31). Omwith & Sou (80¢) . mellh&l;u bt (6) Consol Film (2). Consol Film pf ( Consol Textile. Contl Bakink A Contl Dia Fibre (1), Contl Insur (2.40) Contl Mot Contl Oil of Del. Cont| Shares (1) Corn Prod (13%). Coty Ine, Cream of Wht (f2%) Crosley Radio...... Cr Cork & Seal 2.40. . Crown Zellerback. .. Crucible Steel (5). Crucible Steel pf (1] 120 ranma Cudahy Pl:kll\l u) . Curtis Publish (17). Wright Corp 12 Suwmpnnn s wSammoo Devoe & Ray (1.20). Diamond Match. ..., Dia Mateh pf (1. Dome Mines (1) Domn Stores (1.20) Drug Corp (4)...... Duluth § § & Atl pf.. Dupont de Nem (4). . Du P de N deb pt (8). Eastman Kodak (18) Eaton Axle (l.'(’) Bl wl. hundred-share lots ting those designated by '-hl letter s (lfll) (2508), % 122 104 121 26% . 1931 4 Endicott-John (). .. 4 Endicott-John pf (7) 1 Stock and Sales— Dividend Ral Adano m-h. Elec Boat. Ele) Pow & Lt (1).+. 281 Elec Pow & Lt pf (6) Elec Stor Bat (5).... Eng Pub Eng Pub v P (5). .0 v L (6%). D295 i it 1 00 00 & Zvans Auto Loading Fairbanks M pf (7). Federal Screw (1) Fed Wat Sv A (2.40). Federated Dept Strs Fid Ph Fire In (2.6 ana—a Filene's pt (6 3 Firestone T & R (1). First Nat Strs ("h) Fisk Rubber. + Florsheim Sh A (3). Follansbes Bros (1). Foster Wheeler (2).. Foundation Co...... Fourth Nat Inves Fox Film A (4). 4 Freeport, Tex (4 Gamewell Co (5). Gardner Motor. Gen Am Investors Gen AmInv pf (8)... Gen Am T Car (34).. Gen Asphalt (3) Gen Cable 4 Gen Cable 4 3 Grt North pf (5).. ¢ Gulf Mobile & North. % Houston Ofl.... Gen Cable pf (T) Gillette Gillette Gimbel Bros Glidden Co Glidden pr pf (7). Gobel (Adolf) Gold Dust (23%) Goodrich (B F). Goodyear Tire (5) Goodyear 1st pf (T).. 1 Gotham Silk Hoslery * 11 Gotham S H pf (7).. 108 Gould Coupler Graham-Paige Granby Consol (2).. Grand Sil Strs (h1) Grand Unfon. Grant (W T) ( Grt Nor Ore (2) rt Western Suga Grt West Sug pf (7 Grigsby Grunow Guantanamo Sug pf . o:; I N e T T PR T ) Hahn Dept Stores. .. Harb Walk Ref (2). Hartman Corp (B Hayes Bod Holland Fur Hollander Sons. Homestake Min Houdaille Hershey. . Household Fin pf u) Houston Oil (new).. Howe Sound (4).... Hud & Man Ry (3 Hudson Man pf (5). Hudson Motors (3). Hupp Motors....... Illinois Central Illinois Cent pf ( 1hinois Cent LL (4) Indian Motor Cycle. Indian Refining..... Indian Refining rets. Indust Rayon (4).... Ingersoll Rand (16). Inspiration Copper. . Interb Rap Transit. Int Agricultural. . Int Bus Mach (n6).. Int Carrlers (25¢) ..o Int Cement (4). Int Combustion. .... Int Harvester (234). 13 Int Hydro E1 A (e2). Int Match pf (4).... Int Merc Marine (2). Int Nick of Can (1).. Int Paper & Pow Int Pap & P pf (7) y8 Cen A pf ( @ 5 e SeF caBreamanmne e Int Tel & Tel (2). Inter Dept Strs (2). Intertype Corp (2).+ Investors Equity.... 4 Jewel Tea (15). Johns-Manville (3).. 2! Jones & Laug pf (7). 10i Jordan Motor Car..w Kans City Sou (5)... Karstadt(R) (a1.03). Kayser Julius (23). Kelvinator Corp Kennecott Cop ( R) prm 60s dio Kresge Dept Kresgo ( Kroger Groc&Bak(1) Lambert Co (8) Lee Rubber & T Leh Port Cmt pt (7). Lehman Corp (2 Lehn & Fink (3). Lib Ow Ford Glasi Lig & Myer B (15). Lima Locoms Liquid Carbonic (4). Loew's Inc (3). Loft Inc. Loose-Wiles (2 Loose-Wiles 15 L L Lou G & L Ludlum Steel. . McCrory A (2). McCrory B (2)..... Mclntyre Pore M (1) McKeesp T P (14%). McKesson & Rob (1) McKes & R pf (3%). McLellan Stores. Mack Trucks (4). Macy & Co (nt3). Mad Sq Garden (60¢) Magma Copper (3). Malllzon & C Ma Manati Man Elev mod g ¢ Marine Mid (1 20). in Rockwell (14) Mathieson Alkaii My Dt § Lienged Co. . et-Gold vt Miami Copper Mid-Cont Pet Midland Steel (3) Minn Moline Pow St L Mo Kan & Tex (a3) . Mo Kan & Tex pt l'l) Missouri Pacific. Missouri Pac pf (5). Mohawk Carpet Montgomery Ward Morrell & Co (4.40).. Mother Lode. Motor Meter ¢ lotor Products Motor Wheel (3). Murray Corpt Nesh Motors (4) sh Ch & St L Nat Biscuit Nat Cash Keg A (3). at Dairy (2.60).... Nat Dept Stor Nat Dist Prod Nat Pow & Lt (1) [PPR-JOIO0E: FRUPTONIG P TP ] preeutall wini s feuridd. (Continued on Page 1%y Some [Issues Make New Highs, Others React on Liguidation. . BY GEORGE T. HUGHES. Special Dispatch to The Star. NEW YORK, January 27.—Notwith- standing a high degree of irregularity, today's stock market revealed a strong underlying position. Some stocks did react, but few were weak and while selling was going on in one part of the list new highs were being recorded else- where. Professional _sentiment was against the market. It was freely predicted that reaction was overdue. The ad- vance was said to have outrun the busi- ness improvement and to have been fostered artificially. Sustained by these arguments, shorts attempted to bring about a decline, but met little success. U. S. Steel Report Awaited, During the early trading United States Steel, the electrical manufactur- ing stocks, American Can and Standard Oil of New Jersey were all heavy, but not weak. Steel was held back awaiting the publication after close of the fourth- quarter earnings' statement, which, it was said, would show only 30 to 40 cents for the cemmon stock. Buyers were Te- luctant to take a position pending pub- lication of the results, and on the other hand the bear element hesitated to make new commitments, lest the figures should be better than had been expected. Various reasons were assigned for the sluggishness in the pivotal industrials Standard of I'ew Jersey was deemed to be overpriced on earnings and on the situation in the oil industry, while West- inghouse and General Electric met of- ferings on cvery rally. American Can did not act particularly well either. Early Losses Recovered. After moderate selling during the first half hour, the market steadied and the losses, for the most part, were retraced. Auburn Auto was still the most sen- sational mover, running down to 12815, off 21, points at one time and then re- coverinq as rapidly to equal the pre- vious close. A similar trend was pur- sued by Nash Motors. The utilities were the most active group. American Telephone, ‘after & higher opening, dropped to a fractional Icss. Electric Power & Light was lower at first, but came ‘back. United Cor- poration was traded in blocks of 6800 and 9,000 shares at slightly higher lev- els. Money renewed unchanged at 1l per cent. Trading in the first half hour amounted to 253,100 shares, against 195.390 Monday. United States Steel was higher at the start and then sold off to 14175, down 3.. Vanadium recovered an early de- cline. Industrials such as Case Tresh- ing, Allied Chemical, Corn Products and Worthington Pump rebounded from early lows. Rails were quiet, with small losses in New York Central and Frisco. Oils were steady. LIST OF FINANCIAL OPTIMISTS GROWING Special Dispatch to The Star. i NEW YORK, January 27.—The name of George F. Baker should lead in the growing list of those who have assumed a position of conservative optimism. Others who have publicly expressed their opinions are Albert H. Wiggin, chairman of the board of the Chase National Bank; Paul M. Warburg, chairman of the Manhattan Co.; Charles E. Mitchell, chairman of the National City Bank; James A. Farrell, president of the United States Steel Corporation; Owen D. Young, chairman of the General Electric Co., and H. W. Phelps, president of the American Can Co. Mr. Baker stated that “any man selling short at this time is showing poor judgment.” Cerfainly there is far more reason to suppose that a definite turn is taking place than there was a year ago when a false start was made, New York bank- ers say. |CLOCK COMPANY WILL DOUBLE ADVERTISING Special Dispetch to The Star. NEW YORK, January 27.—Advertis- ing budget of the Hammond Clock Co. for the first six months of 1931 will be twice as large as in the comparable pe- riod of 1930, officials stated today. Action of the management in doubling the advertising appropriation is in line with the steadily increasing demand, which has been noted for synchronous electric clocks, the company’s sole product, Scrap Steel Pnces Beduced NEW YORK. January 21 (#).—Heavy melting scrap steel in the Chicago dis- trict i¢ being quoted at $10 to §10.25 a ton, 25 cents under the previous max- imum range. A fair-sized tonaage was reported sold to a leading independent mill at $10.25. Dealers continue to pay $10. JANUARY 27, 1931 CONSOLIDATED GAS CO. FINANCI G DISCUSSED By the Associated Préss NEW YORK, Jnn 17.-w-n Street was discussing prospect for early flnmclni‘ by thc Consolidated " Gas Co. Such rumors were abroad’ little more than a fort- night , and at that time it was offi- :gnled that .eny immediate new financing was in ¢onsideration. The compnnv through its subsidiaries has n going ahead with expansion and reconstruction in a llrse way t.hraugh the past year, and un stances, it would not be !\u’pmin[ “ something in the way of new capital is essential at this point. Certainly con ditions in the bond market since the beginning of the year must prove rather enticing to corporations whose opera- tions require additional working capital. Demand for bonds, particularly those of large and well-seasoned corporations, glvcxx promise of remaining good for a while. Students at Queen’s College, Oxford, England, now are being called to meals by a coach horn instead of a dinner gong. 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First Mortgage Loans’ On Improved Real Estate in the District of Columbia % and Nearby Maryland and Virginia for 3, 5 or 10 year terms on your 51/2% S RANDALL H. HIAGNER & COMPANY Home Apartment MORTGAGE LOAN CORRESPONDENT New York Life Insurance Company 1321 Connecticut Ave. Decatur 3600 Complete Investment and Brokerage Setvice Copy of Our “Fortmightly Review” Furnished om Request G. M.-P. MURPHY & CO. Members New York Stock Exchange 1510 H Street Connecticut at K - WASHINGTON Telephone National 9600 Philadelphia Richmond London New York Baltimore F. B. KEECH & COMPANY Members of New York Stock Exchange Other principal stock and commodity exchanses. E — This is a good time to analyze your investment holdings, and our Statistical Department will be pleased to furnish a detailed report on any listed securities. Orders handled promptly on all the principal stock and commodities exchanges, both domestic and foreign. H CORNER 17TH ST., N.W., WASHINGTON NATIONAL 0245 Brooklyn Mmm Miaml Besch Ormond Beach PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Apartment House MANAGEMENT b THERE can be .so many “leaks” in the operation of an apartment house that you will be surprised what a saving will be made when placed under our experienced management — resulting in .greater return on your in- vestment. You will have the benefit of our more than a third of a *‘_ century’s expenence. B. F. SAUL CO. 925 15th St. N.W. Nat’l 2100 MORTGAGE LOANS Statement of Condition at close of business December 31, 1930 FIDELITY INVESTMENT ASSOCIATION 'WHEELING, WEST VIRGINIA Liabilities Capital and Surplus ...$ 1,142,464.84 RESERVES.. 23,904,659.96 Reserves for the Maturity and Payment of all ontracts out- nding. (Tn- cludes Surplus belonging to Contract- holders.) Resources Bonds . . .$14,767,055.32 Preferred Stocks ..., Other Securities. . Loans to Con- tractholders Hor age and l-ur.l 769,271.00 895,794.83 6,903,117.09 405,636.02 1,013,865.72 50,000.00 1.00 87,926.00 154,457 $25,047,124.80 $25,047,124.80 Securities approved by and deposited with State Departments for the exclusive protection of all Contractholders .........c0vsenensnsssss.$16,160,200.66 Board of Directors Richard B. Scandrett, Jr., Chairman Robert E. Allen New York City Dayten Keith age, Tk, Vice President, Central Hanover Ve Poestlent, Chicago Tomsr'Co. Bank & Trust Charles H. Mareh Wheeler H. Bachman, Wheeling, W.Va. Member, Federal Trade Capitalist Jobn Marshall Washington, D. C. Homer J. Buckley Chieago, TIL. Lawyer, Cm-m-, p-h-; ui ‘Rubles ent, Buckiey, Dement and Co. Floyd B. Odl, ork City Wheeling, W. Va. reigents Ablas Uiiior Corp. President Frank A. Reid New York Chty General Atberney, Bl Electric Bond & Wintheop B, Smith * New Yoek Ciy be. B 4 rice & Co ""'fu" isad | Elkios, V. V. ie Pro Wul:l‘fln e Carmi A. Thompson, Cleveland, Ohis Tawyer; former U. S, Treaswrer 3. Trimble New York City Swiger, Scandrets, Chambers & Lenien James B. Weseort Samders, Childs, Offices in Twenty-Five Principal Cities “Washirgtm, Office — Shoreham Building H. @) HARRIS, Menager est on Bonds D. Allan Burt L. Coblent: ident, Central Trust C Harry M. Dus T Member, Robert V. Fleming, Washi rmidm Rim National B N Bresidens, Bembers Senm Louis B. Hanna Presdent, Foet Netional Bonk o] Fate’ Ex-Governor of North Dakota Robert Haslett Wheeling, W. Va. President,” Dolay Savins & Frast'Cou b & Wescots