Evening Star Newspaper, December 31, 1924, Page 22

THE EVENING STAR, “WASHINGTON,- L. ESDAY, blokdbii ' 31, 1924, " Review Shows Narrow Profit Margins; Europe Makes Steady Improvement Babson’s Review Shows 1924 - Was Hard on Profit-Making Bulk of Business Men Had “Hard Sled- ding,” He Says—Analyses of Leading “Barometric Figures.” BY ROGER W. BABSO) No one should be discouraged if he has failed to have good business in 1924, The great bulk of business men had hard sledding. Of course, there are some excep- tions. Certain lines, such as the chain-store peo- ple, public utility interests, bak- eries and dairy compantes, seem to have had a prosperous year n considering these few lines that have done well, it is inter- etsing to e that they in_ th repeat order” business, and also do pret- ty much a cash business. or course ill of us cannot two adv ages, but is & suggestion her should strive to follow. 1 are ROGER W. BABSON. these there many enjoy certainly which ard Year for Profits. Considering all country and all 1924 b, yeat t turers and been one of intense 1ppointment len ¢ ssiblo many cases gether. An analysis etric lines of the industry, prosperous anufac- the year h strugzle and dis- Gross business has and it has been almost im- to reduce expenses, thus in eliminating yprofits alto of the leading baro- comparing 1924 with sit accurately ver of failures (1923), 18,943; 00, increase cent Failure Habilities ). $5 000 ) $638,306,000, increase of figures pictures the Num pe nk cleari ), $199,39; 000,000, de gs, except New York 000,600; (1924) $197,- rease of 1 per cent. t in_ manufacturing i New York State per cent; 24) 100 per of 9 per cent Waz lex in manufactu establishments in New York (1923) 8 per ¢ (1924) , dedrease of T per cent ding permits (1923), $2,123,000 000 Employme ablishments 3, 110 cent; decrease 5. ring ate . 221 case of 3 per c 7. Exports (19 (1924), $4,543,000,000, cen % Tmports (1923), $3.792,066,000; (1924), $3,527,000,000, decrease of 7 per cent 2. Total tr (1921), §8 cent 10 493 000; de (192 000,000, $7,959,539,000; increase of 1 per prices 3.40 ease of 4 per cent New Y Exchange traded) (1 236,115,000, 66,800,000, increase of 13 per (Bradstreet (1924) $12.867 11 (share (1924), cent. 12, Railroad $26,763; (1924) per cent 13. Car loadings (number cars per week) (1923), 956,000; (1924), 927,000, decrease of 3 per cent. 14. Unfilled steel orders verage tonnage) (192d), (1024) 6.000, decrease cent. Pig of 24 per cent. ome of the 1924 figures were est mated where totals for last few weeks are not yet available. per mile (1928) decrease of gross $24,900, (monthly 6,009,000 of 38 per production (tons) 24) 30,445,000, de- on Commodity Prices Sag. Throvghout 1924 there has been a sagging in commodity prices varying with different lines of business. Steel, or instance, has zone off from $42.50 in January, 1924, to $35.50 in December, 1924. Other ¢ modities have had de- clines somewhat as follows: Petroleumn Toxboard chips Ginghar 1o+ 10 3d 102 3d. Of course there are instances where there have been increases, as in the case of grains, but the general ten- dency of commodity prices has beean downward throughout the year, As was indicated by fundamental condi- tlons last January. Taking the list as a whole, we see a decrease of some § per cent, which is considerable in view of the tremendous declines of 1921 and 1922. ‘Working Conditions Fair, The employntent situation has been working out the same way. There have been no bread lines during 1924 and wages have held up pretty well, but in many sections of the country there has beer considerable unem- plovment. This especially has been true in the union coal mining dls- tricts in the Central West, where more idleness has prevafled than for years. The textile industry, the shoe industry and other highly organized Jines have suffered during 1924 from much idleness. When the channels of trade from Burope wera closed it was possible for organized labor in this country to demand and exact higher wages. With the world's warket once more normal, so that ] goods can flow back and forth as needed and in the best interests of all, no one group in any one country can take an arbitrary position at the expense of others. Hence, although the year has been fairly satisfactory for unhorganized groups, there has been much unemployment in organ- 4zed labor. Figures Show Wage Changen. A comparison of wage cuts and in- greases gives us the following: Wage cdts. Wage increases. 1933 31 1,470 1924 .5:41228 436 Commodity prices, wages and cost of living move more or less in the same direction. These three things have always gone together in the past and they will always go together in the future. Artificial barriers and stimulants may temporarily affect prices, wages and the cost of living, as a dam may temporarily affect the flow of a stream of water. No dam ever destroys the water. Sooner or Jater it flows over the dam. Labor unions, tariffs, immigration restric- tions and other legislation may tem- porarily stimulate the situation, but such stimulation is not permanent. Reaction always follows. Water must seek its own level and ultimately all groups and nations suffer and rosper together. This is the great esson of 1924. Investment Situation Sus v As a result of the decreased busi- .mess in 1924 money has been idle and plentiful. When copper is 14 cents & pound it requires only half as much capital to carry it as when it is at 28 cents a pound, and the same is true of commodities in general. When business is dull, money is always plentiful, and 1924 was no exception to the rule The following figures for the average call rates on the ver | ase of 9 per ! New York Stook Exchange for the last 10 years shows very clearly what has taken place in this regard: 1914 1015 1816 1917 1918 1919 33-5 21 3% 5% 6% 1920 1921 1822 1923 1924 T 4% 4% 3 These low money rates have caused banks to buy bonds with their surplus funds and we have witnessed a very good bond year. Yields of active bonds closed December 31, 1923, with an average of 5.39 per cent and are closing this year mbout 0.4 polnts lower. Of course, the nearer we get to the top, the less opportunity there is for rurther rises. but I should not be surprised fn some instances to see even higher prices in 1925 than in_1924. The stock market continued to work in a sidewise manner until the nominations took place in June. When it was that both of the major partics selected good men, the bank- ing interests took courage and began to lay constructive programs for financing large developments. The actual business, however, was held back until election d When it was found that President Coolidge was elected by such w tremendous | pular vote, the throttle was opened wide an~ the stock market had @ tre mendous volume of - business, Of course, this Dusiness was fargely made up of orders which had been held back, like a stream of wate pending the counting of the ballots Wh of orders nessed s the history Exchange. Many wonder whether market has culminated or 1925 will see even higher Based on experiences of previous bull markets, I believe that 1825 will see higher prices in the case of many securities than was witnessed iu the Lest days of 1924. 1925 Bull Market Like 1800. I remember very well the election of 1900, when a bull market suddenly developed under circumstances very much like those of this November. It went on for some days and then re- {acted 4 or 5 points, continuing irreg- ularly into December. Then the ad- | vance again started, and with the | cume forth, and of the heaviest of the New we da York Stock wit- ! the buil whether 2 all previous records were broken In January, however, the bull market seemed to culminate. Wall Street took profits very heav- ily, with the result that some stocks reacted from 10 to 20 points. Dur- ing February, when the United States Steel combination was announced, the marke: moved only sidewise, but very soon rumors began to come out that other consolidations, especially rail- road consolidations, were under way, and prices rose from 20 to 30 points during March In April there were similar ad- vances running as far as 25 points, and the month's trading was very heavy. What was the wildest bull market in the history of Wall Street came on April 30, when 3,281,226 shares changed hands. Very shortly after this the Northern Paciflc corner developed and the crash came May 9. All stooks were liquidated; tremen- dous decreases took place, such as 60 points in Delaware and Hudson, 27 in Union Pacific and 23 in United States Steel, and s0 on down the list. Of course, there is no reason why we should compare the present bull mar- ket with any particular one. There were also bull markets in 1904 and 1905, and again in 1916, but there are many points regarding the present situation which resemble 1900 more than any stock market move- ment. We have cheap money, favor- able political situation and possibil- itles of consolidation with the con- sent and approval of all interests. Certainly at no time in history has the stage been better set for & con- tinuation of the upward movement, which has been in process since June, 1924, and which really began in ear- nest with the elections. % Other Possibilities Sight When any reader, however, bases hope for higher prices on a resem- Dblance to 1900, let him also remember the disastrous crash that followed in May, 1301, That is to say, it is very dangerous to use a part of a com- parison without carrying it through to & conclusion. Although it is en- tirely possible that 1925 will see & great bull movement, yet if so, it will also witness drastic declines. The trees never grow to the skies. Rock- ots go up, but the sticks also come down. The higher securities go, the more dangerous it is to fool with them. Hence, If we do have much higher stock market prices in 1926, we are likely to have a great col- lapse in 1925. This is what statistics indicate and what the Babson chart confirms. This means that great care should be exercised in the purchase of securities from now on, and that no one should be guided by tips of rumors. Al purchases should be based on careful study or recom- mendations by people in _whom: you have the greatest trust. If you can- not afford to get expert advice, go to your local banker and ask him to help you. Otherwlse, leave your money on deposit or invest it in life insurance, local mortgages or some- thing that You know about. A great “many . people feel that money in the bank is idle. That is a great mistake. It is being invested just the same whether it is on de- posit in the bank or in secyrities. The main difference is that money in the bank is being invested by people trained in the investing of money, while money that you invest yourself is often lost, owing to your lack of knowledge and experience. Hence, 1 urge everybody to keep a good bank account during 1925. Put more money into life insurance, especially life an- nuities, and if you have -plenty of funds take a local mortgage at 6 per cent from someone whom you know. Stocks and bonds are not the only form of investment. It is not neces- sary to send money to Czechoslovakia or same other distant country in order to “invest” it. Often the best 6 per cent investment can be obtained on a fifst mortgage on some house In your neighborhood. General Outlook for 1925. As we look forward to the new year, we are confronted by two faocts, one of which makes us timid and the other makes us courageous. The fact which makes me a little timid {s the uncertainty as to European imports, I have already refdrred to this Kuro- pean situation and need not expand upon it now. The fact nevertheless remains that Europe must get onto its feet, and in order to get it onto its feet, .it must sell more goods. Moreover, there is no reason why we should not expect this. The world is more or less a unit, and more 5o to- day than ever, Hence, we are in- fluenced by trade conditions the world over, sometimes to our disadvantage. This does not trouble me, as in the end we will be all benefited by it, but n the dam was removed the flood | n | In& prices. | opening of the exchange on January | of the country will suffer from this world readjustment of markets. ' However, these sections will be those that have benefited ‘most dur- ing the past 10 years, so that the net result will be fair all around. The particular industries that suffer will be thosé depending upon hand labor rather than those = that prosper through great mass production. More- over;“ihese will be in certain indus. trial'sections of the Bast rather than the ‘great virile agricultural sections of the: Central 'West and South. Offsetting this one disadvantage, we have better conditions of the Cen- tral West, the South and other agri- cultural” sections. The Northwest, which ‘has been suffering for some years, should have a distinctly befter year in 1925 than It had in 1924. Thiy will also be frue of many other, farm- ing’ sections of the Unfted “States. Thé farmer is once more coming into his own, and, given fair growing weather, 1925.should be a better year for him ‘than 1924; As the farmer is the foundation of prosperity and the basis of progress, this should fore- tell prosperity for the Nation as a whole. South Facing Splendid Year. The South cspeclally is looklng for- ward to a splendld year in 19 1924 cotton crop will probably reach 13,000,000 bales, and perhaps, 18,300,- 000. Up to the time of writing this report the dry and warm weather in the South has been very propitious for the next cotton crop, and every- thing now is favorable. Of course, the boll weevil is still doing business, but we are learning more and more to control it, both directly through spraying and fertilization and ndi- rectly through diversified crops. With thé Dawes plan under way, tha for- | eign consumption of cotton should in- {oremse, and with a -readjustment of | wage scales among the texuls milts { of this country, " domestic epngump- | tion should. increase. Hence,. wa face | a year of good prices. stimulated by an active growlng demand. The fact is that 1 am ful for the entire South South has turned the {what has happened to the the past 40 vears happen In tne South during the next |40. 1 also am very hopefulfor the | | Pacific coust, believing that my | {grandchildren will see the largest |city in America on the Pacific coast |and the world's trade carried on the Pacific Ocean rather than on the At lantic. It will take time to arous the hundreds of millions of people i China, Indla and the Far East, but sooner or later they will come into |the market as the world's greatest| consumers of goods. Suggests Policy for 19 Two years ago, at our Summer con- terence at Babson Park, the late Dr. | Stefnmetz was answering questions in the auditorium. Some one asked | whether he thought our - present civilization was due to follow that of Greece and Rome int, decay and | {oblivion. “Whether or not our pres- ent civilization is going to pieces, answered the doctor, ds very |targely upon vour digestion.” Tt | {much the same with the crop of mis- cellaneous business prophets who take the stump at this particular sea- son of the year. Their findings de {|pend largely upon the condition of | their business livers, and their con- clusfons are drawn to a great extent from the figures on their own balance sheets, Many financial writers poohing foreign competition and see- ing only the improved conditions in this country and other nations of the world. They are preaching a great| bull year for 1925. Then we have the other group which is pessimistic, re- fusing to recognize the better con- ditions and pointing only to the in- equalities existing ghroughout our own nation and throughout the world as a whole. This group is pessimistic as to 1925. Personally, I beligve that 1925 s a vear when we should all let nature take its course and neither artificlally stimylate the situation nor unnecessarily hamper develop- ment. If we attempt artificially to stimulate business now and bring | about a period of inflation, we cer- tainly will have a severe reaction in 1925, because the great readjustment | period following the World War has not vet been completed. Certain in- dustries and sections have been thoroughly readjusted, but other in- dustries and sections have not. Stabilisation Vital to AlL | 1 should feel very badly to see any | sudden spurt In general business and | commodity prices similar to what has | been witnessed on the Stock Bx- | change.. On the other hand, if we | will let nature take its course and | let the readjustment, which is now about 75 per cent completed, run its course, then we can gradually enter into a period of prosperity which should last us for some time. If so, 1925 will become a year of stabiliza- tion, a year when wages could be stabilized, investments stabilized, prices stabilized, and, most of all, the hearts of men stabilized. Therefore, can't we make tabilization” the watchword for 19257 Let us forget the bull marlets and tHe bear markets. Let us cease to try to artificially stimulate or arti- ficlally depress. Let ‘us not try to prove this or that, but let us be con- tent with the middle of the road. Then we shall have completed in a natural way the great readjustment period and be preparing ground for another period of real prosperity. | i 1 | 1 to.| | | are pooh- e BIG EVENTS DURING 1924. i Guaranty Survey Sums Up Three Outstanding Features. At the beginning fo the new year the business outlook on the whole is distinctly favorable, states the cur- rent issue of the Guaranty Survey, published today by the Guaranty Trust Company of New York. At no other time since the war has there been ®o marked a predominance of encouraging factors, the Survey con- tinues. The essential bases for sus- talned and well rounded progperity have been.materially strengthened, and in large part this improvement was effected in 1924. The outstanding events of the year 1924 were: 1. The adoption of the Dawes plan, quickening economic recovery in Eu- rope; 3 2. The readjustment between agri- cultural and industrial prices 3. The success of conservative po- litical issues in both European and ‘American eléctions. . DEMAND AIDS FARMERS. Basic Beadjustment of Prices Vital Feature of 1924. ‘What legislation could not have provided for agriculture—a basic re- adjustment of prices—has resulted naturally from changing relations .of supply and demand, says the Guar- anty Trust Co. In the case of wheat, poor ylelds of this and other food crops abroad have coincided with in- creased demand resulting from fm- proved industrial conditions in Eur- ope. The fairly general revival of business activity in this country also, with increased .employment, has strengthened the markets for farm product: The official v tion of important creps.in 1924 is $9,479,902,- | bales for several Babsc‘;’}tchart : American Business The central line of the chart (X-Y line) divides the areas equally above and below and indicates the net growth of American business. It records the development of the coun- try’s resources regardless of the con- dition of buginess at the mofnent. The line running alternately above and below it indicates the present state of trade and shows clearly our prog- ress through ensuing periods of prosperity, decline, depression and improvement. On the chart the area of prosperity “B" {s exactly equaled by the area of depression The abnormal business which made up the areas above tile “X-Y line” labeled “D” is Indifferent Trade in Cotton Followed by Revived Industry Government Estimates Total of 13,153,000 Bales Produced in 1924—Big Increase Qver Previous Two Years. BY GEORGE DeWITT MOULSON After holding the attention and in- terest of the general public for three successive vears, cotton retired back stage in 1924, giving way to both grain and securi- ties. A review of the| season is, there-| fore in | the dramatic qual- itles of 1921, 1922 and 1923 the course ! prices completely overshadowed de- velopments in| corn, wheat and | stocks. Instead of | violent and sensa- tional price changes, disturb- ing to the con- sumer of raw ma- terial, but render- ed inevitable by underproduction to a degree that | finally ended in a virtual cotton fam- ine, a combination of events brought relief through increased supplies of | both American and foreign cottons. Thé recent annual Government es- timate indicates a 1924 yleld of 13 153,000 bales grown in the South, compared with only 10,170,000 ¢n 1923, 9 ,000 in 1 and a crop of only 8,000,000 in 1921, Thirty-five Cents a Year Ago. A year ago cotton was 35 cents or above, a price that meant inevitable | curtallment in its use in all but the | most fortunately placed textile plants as well as hardship in every direc- tion. Spindles and looms had to stop running, as the public could not or would not pay the cost of goods at a price corresponding to the high level of raw material. Throughout the world manufacturers felt the short- age and cotton advanced to a prohibi- tive figure in order to reduce con- sumption within the limits of a rap- tdly dwindling supply. A crisis threatened the cotton trade, such as had no couliterpart since the Civil War, and what the condition | would have beén with another poor | crop was staggering in its implica-| tions. Before the outbreak of the great war in 1914, the South had pro- duced crops averaging over 14,000,000 | succeeding years, | ending in 1914 with the record-break- ing outturn of over 16,000,000 bales. Then production decreased until the average of the three seasons from 1921 to 1924 was only 9,300,000 bales. Problem of Manufacturers. Manufacturers were confronted with a situation threatening ruin, and nothing reveals the deplorable posi- tlon better than the loss of nearly $3,000,000 reported by the Amoskeag Mills in its annual report for the past vear. In an effort to meet this un- paralleled emergency one of the most successful corporations in the textile business had encountered a huge loss in operating expenses. Without « larger supply of raw material other mills less strong would be obliged to go out of business. While the cot- ton market itself had become the center of abnormal activity, the trade suffered, business slackened, machinery ran part time, and the problem facing mill owners was how to hold out until the new crop ap- peared in the Fall. Prices Attain Maximum. With forced curtailment in all di- rections and the textile trade passing through what was conceded to be one of the most depressing phases in the experience of a quarter of a cen- tury, the first eight months of the calendar year were prime ones. Prices attained thelr maximum the day following Thanksgiving, at the close of November, 1923, when May contracts in New York touched 37.23, after starting their sensational rise from the basis of 21 cents In the pre- vious July. This marked the culmi- nation of the upward movement, and, though the tide was slow in reced- ing, from, January 1 on all factors operated in the direction of sagging prices. So many mills found the price pro- hibitive that curtailment had spread with extreme rapldity until there were instances where New England mills shut down entirely. This was not a situation to encourage specu- lation for an advance which had already served its economic function by pushing the price level to a point where the demand was reduced com- mensurate with the small existing supply. Too Uncertain for Speculators. On the other hand, experience of the two previous growing seasons, with attendant wholesale weevll damage, rendered the outlook too un- certain to encourage speculative sell- ing for a decline. Though October contracts, representing the as yet un- planted crop of 1924, had iouched 30 cents when the advance reached its peak In the Fall of 1923, they again wold at 29.98 during July, 1924. ‘Anxiety over the start and progress of the new crop was the dominating note of this entire eight months’ course of events. At no time could there be sald to have prevailed any degree of of | | | | | | | { G. D. MOULSON. | each | March. than the month of May Anxiety seized the market, and fever- ieh buying movements advanced prices 5 cents a pound, only to be succeeded by an abating degree of nervousness at- tended with falling values. While the question of the size of evers growing »p provides an element of uncertainty vear, detafls of the past season furnished 'a unique experfence for the trade and one that will not be quickly forgotten. The sun failed to warm up the ground rapidly, and for weeks tem- peratures continued more like early Begin- the Atlantic seaboard and working westward to the far cotton regions of Texas and Oklahoma, tem- peratures were progressively below a scasonable average. ning along Mercury Remains Too Low. Taking the months of April and May as a whole, the average in Eastern sec tions of the Carolinas and Georgia was bout a degree or two too low. In Ala- bama and central Tennessee. 3 to 4 de- grees below that usually experienced at that time of the vear. In the Mississippi Valley, & to 6 de- grees, while in the extreme. Western portions of the belt temperatures aver- aged as much as 8 degrees below nor- mal. As a result, when it came time to report on the condition of the growing plant for the purpose of making up the May 25 Government estimate growers over & vast area of the South simply stated that figures were an imposaibility either because the seed had not germ- inated, was hardly out of the ground or that stands were so small and late that accurate description was difficult. So Washington called the condition 65.6, 7 per cent below the 10-year aver- age and the lowest on record with the single exccption of 1920. The interest- ing feature of the two crops, 1920 and 1924, is the fact that both started un- der the most discouraging surroundings ever attending a planting season, yet both eventually emerged with a fine yleld of cotton. Crop About Same 1920, While the acreage this year v larger than planting of over 40,000,000, the size of both crops proved about the same, Those familiar with cotton culture are of the opinion that the delay fol- Jowing seeding developed a tap root rather than top growth. so that a sturdy plant resulted. What appeared a hopeless outlook was in reality the best preparation that could have been devised at that stige, and the forma- tion of a strong tap root enabled the weed to resist deficient molsture later on. A larger quantity of fertilizers wa used this year than usual, and of bet- ter grade. It is estimated that the in- crease in fertilizers amounted to over 14 per cent above 1923 and, according to the Department of Agriculture, commercial fertilizers were used on 38.7 of ths total area under cotton cultivation. The fact that the distribution of molsture was virtually normal, with- out a repetition of the disastrous floods and overflows that prevented the planting of tens of thousands of acres in the Spring of 1923, enabled the grower to complete his contem- plated acre. Nature Proves Genero While cold weather necessitated considerable replanting in nearly every State, the 1st of June found preparations about completed, and only the appearance of Summer weather needed to force germination. As thougly ashamed of her apathy, her indifference to the special needs of the Southern cotton grower, nature began a process of minute, painstak- ing attention to the requirements of vegetation in a way that evoked the admiration of all concerned. During the first half of June, she turned on the heat in western sections of the belt. The mercury rose gradually, so s ot to bake the ground or wilt th tender plants just emerging from cold storage. Days grew steadlly hotter until maximum temperatures of over 100 degrees prevailed throughout the greater part of the enormous cotton- producing area of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkan: The plant grew rapidly under the best possible surroundings, with warm days and nights replacing the cold weather of the previous two months. And then, having made her atonement to the West, she devoted hey energies to the East during the Iatter half of the month of June. Here the plant was small with a poor start, but under the combined Influ- ence of forcing temperatures and suf- ficient precipitatis to provide ade- quate moisture, the season soon ad- vanced rapidly, and ii few weeks the Government was able to report that in Alabama, Georgia and Missi sippi what had previously baen a d lay of three to four weeks had been replaced with a condition only a few days behind normal. Average Condition Improved. As a result of this unfortunate se- quel of events, the average condition of the growing crop was raised above 71, or nearly 6 points over figures of the previous month, and apprehension gave way to a feeling that the out- look now promised a' fair crop. It has always been a moot question among those engaged in its culture whether cotton was a wet or a dry during 1925 and perhaps longer, cer-1000, or $758,013,000 more than Iast]security or feeling of confidence in an ' weather plant. It looks now, after a tain industries and certain sections year. ample crop of cotton. careful analysiz of the experience of in 1920, being a record | exactly offset by the ensuing depres- sion “E”. The great period of war and post war inflation “PF offset by the readjustment area This readjustment is well along in its development, as Mr. Babson points out in the accompanying article. The star indicates the present po- sition of business, 1924, that those holdinz. the theory that too much wet weather is more disastrous than drought have the best of the argument. All records in the history of Texas were broken during the month of October when only 0.60 inches fell in the State, or 2.02 inches below normal, and making the total for five months 7.93 Inches, or 6.03 inches less thap the normal total of 13.96 for the period. In other words, though precipita- tion proved only a little over half of that recelved in an average year, the Texas crop turned out one of the largest ever grown. After making due allowance for the increased acre- age under cultivation, results sustain the contention t| dry bett | than wet weather. In fact, drought became the outstanding char- acteristic of the latter half of the growing season and extremely dam- aging in some sections. Heat Kills Weevil. But high temperatures played more bavoc with weevil and other insects than ‘with vegetation ftself. as a result of a vigorous plant, helped by generous fertiliza and the strong tap root formed in the early | stages of its growth, but to a greater | extent by high temperatures, weevil |damage in the Summer of 1924 be- |came negligible for the first time In three seasons. In some of the worst devastated districts of the previous years there were so few insects to be dealt with that planters had quanti- ties of calclum arsenate on hand at |the end of the Summer. Having taken unusual precautions to be am~ Iply prepared to deal with this pest, |they found the use of polson neces- |sary in such few instances that tons remained for another year. The persistent hot weather kept the weevil inactive, o that bolls were not punctured as heretofore, nor were the insects so prolific as in former seasons. The toll extracted by weevil proved o light that even with the yleld reduced in some sections by deficiency of moisture the outturn aggregated the largest yieiu, with one exception. in a decade. Remarkahle Picking Season. This successful outcome was halped greatly by one of the most remark- able picking seasons in history. Weather continued warm, killing frosts were delaved beyond the usual | date In most States and so little 1ain was not subjected to interference for two consecutive days during the Fall. In fact, there were vast regions where no rain whatever fell for ,ver two months, as evidenced by the record deficiency in precipitation for the State of Texas during the month of October. What might have happened can be estimated from the experience of cer- taln stations in eastern . | where 10 inches of rain fell | hours and most of that region more rainfall In a week the latter part of September than the Stats of | Texas. The work of picking, ginning and marketing progressed under ideal, made-to-order conditions, with cotton continuing its growth until late No- vember in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. September rains start- od mew growth in that region, and with temperatures frequently over 100 degrees maximum throughout Oc- tober and into November many bolls matured that few had dared hope would ripen. Cotton was still being picked in portions of north Texas early in December. All Market Records Broken. The rush of cotton to market as a result of this phenomenal weatner, combined with the eager ‘demand from both domestic and foreign con- sumers, broke all records. In two months the -movement reached’ the enormous total of 5,624,000 bales, or am average of 703,000 bales for c'ght Bhsecutive weeks. Some idea of the magnitude ‘of this marketing of cotton from producing sectfons can be obtained from the fact that in many seasons the figures never reach even 700,000 bales for a single week when the rush is at its peak, whereas this year four weeks exoeeded that figure and the week of October 18 brought into sight 752,000 bales, which broke all previous rec- ords. Like thirsty soil after months of aridity, consuming establishments the world over have been lapping up this bountiful crop. and with prices 13 cents to 15 cents lower than last year, manufacturers find them- selves in a decidedly more comfort- able position. Tn addition to the yield of over 13,000,000 hales of lint cotton, there is the production of linters, or in all, probably 13,750,000 bales. The average consumption of thetwo years 1921 and 1922 proved to be 12,500,000, which was reduced during the past season as a result of drastic curtail- ment, to 11,250,000. Ample Cotton in Sight. There is, therefore, ample cotton in sight, not only for increased con- sumption during the current season, but sufficient to provide a residue to €0 Into reserves. Foreign crops have likewise turned out better than a year ago, and it Is conservatively estimated that the world's production of cotton, all growths, will range nearer 24,000,000 bales than the 19,- 000,000-bale out-turn in 1823. All this means cheaper raw mate- rial to the manufacturer, increased output of goods, a lessening degree of unemployment among _workmen and, generally, the reversed position of that facing the cotton trade at the close of 1923. ‘With the growth of the automobile industry and the need of cotton for higher fabrics, in the manufacture of artificial silk and in ecountless other directions, requirements have expanded in recent years until cot- ton is used for purposes undreamed of a quarter of a century ago. More abundant supplies available for 1925 will [ded on Page 23. EL is being at the plant resists| In part, | fell that work of gathering the crop | Dawes Plan, OQutstanding Event Of Year, Brings Peace in Europe we F Years Subsequent to Signing of Ver- sailles Treaty Failed to Solve Reparations Tangle. BY WILLIAM BIRD. Special Cable to The Star. (This review of the year 1924 in Eura with foreshadowing of what may come in 1025, was written especially to throw light on the outlook abroad in which American bus! Tess Is #0 vitally interested. Mr. Bird, an American newspaper man. who in {1 sear has traveled widely from hisx Paris head quarters, is exceptionally qualificd to analyze the situation from the American point of view.) PARIS, December 31.—“Papa, tell me a five-letter word beginning with P and meaning prosperity That is Europels cross-word puzzle. It all depends on finding peace. The 12 months of 1824 have secn some calculable progress toward a solution. The Dawes plan —which for the sake of historical accuracy ought to be called the Young plan—Is bevond the shadow of dount the greatest sin- gle factor in this progress. A comic paper pictures a hie teacher of the n«-xp[ fflfifird'l’\}v‘\' .t:,;:‘z ing, “Johnny, what was the Dawes plan?’ and cynical Johnny rep “To elect Coolldge.” WILLIAM BIRD, Effects of Dawes Plan. But the Dawes plan has had two far greater effects. First and foremost, it has brought America definitely back into world peace councils, for although the American Government technically kept its hands off, it will be difficult tc persuade future historians that 1. The American Government's | formal approval of the selection Dawes and Young; 2. The trip of Secretary Hughes to Europe during the Dawes plan debates and his interviews about the matter | with all the political chiefs of Western Europe, and 3. The subsequent momination Dawes to the vice presidency, followed by his election, do not an complete committal of the American nation to the success of the p! Reparations Problems at Ret. The second great effect of t adoption is that reparations e plan’s has laid the thorny problem temporarily, probably permanently, to rest. The treaty of Versailles was signed in 1415 the Dawes plan was adopted five years later. Between those two dates it had been demonstrated that the collection of reparations from Germany by means of {the machiners provided in the treats was imposxible. either becat t | machinery was defective, as some think or because (as the majo Europeans hold) too much depe: constant agreement between Great Britain and France, and euch agresment was impossible to obtain In either case, the result was the fame: France was embittered and isolated, was compelled to maintain a large army and to threaten and even to execute measures of violence against Germany. Unbacked b Great Britain—indeed, hampered t her—it was becoming apparent tha France was not only losing chance of being repaid her damages, but was running a grave risk of German vengeance as soon as Germany could regain her strength sufficiently to undertake a war of re- venge. Thus France was being cheated of both her princlpal fruits of victory—reparations and securit What Was Needed. What was needed was to put the reparations question on a new foot- |ing, to take it out of the hands of politiclans, who could only use it to stir up nationalistic sentiment. with serious riske to world peace, an place it on a purely business basis This {s what the Dawes achieved. Tt did away with the re rations commis; which had come merely an instrument of various allied governments themselves could never agree. Tt es. tablished instead a definite prog: { of reparations collect giving | recognition not only to the difficu {of collecting reparations, | transferring them across | tional frontiers without exchange. Physically, the immedlate effect of the Dawes plan was to effect the withdrawal of the French and Bel- glan troops from the Ruhn after more than a year of occupation. | ded on | for wa the who m ut in upsetting litical atmosphere, bu‘ permitted a gradual resumption of industrial ac- | tivity in the region affected. | The Dawes plan may never {duce a penny in actual cash repara- tion payments. Nobody can tell. But Europeans generally feel that it has | accomplished the maximum that possible of accomplishment. If payments come out of it most ple will probably say, “Too bad, but if the Dawes plan can't make Ger- | many pay, then nothing can,” and let | it go at that Further American Co-operntion. This very considerable accomplish- ment is due to American intervention Without the backing of America it would have been impossible. But America’s participation in the con- solidation of world peace is not ex- pected to end there. “You have settled problem, although you insist it a purely European question,” lure- Peans say now. Surely you will not decline to offer a solution of another great financial puzzle—the interallied debts?” It is confidently bankers here, and even by the pub- lic, that 1 will see very great orogress toward a settlement of this matter along similar lines. “The Dawes reparation plan makes Germany pay what she can, but does not compel her to do the impossible. Will not America take the same at- titude toward the war debts?” Political Relations Improve. The first political effect of ti Dawes plan was an Immediate im- provement in Franco-German rela- tions, and the old Caillaux poliey of Franco-German economic and politi- cal solidarity began immediately to be talked of seriously in both coun- tries. One has only to think back a few years to realize what this mean a step toward peace. As lately as two years ago It was scarcely possi- ble to mention the subject in France. Almost anybody would instantly tell you that Germany and France were and always had been and always would be enemies and that any loyal Frenchman would sooner out off his arm than shake hands with a Ger- man. History, however, should have us all remember that Franc fought many more wars with English than with the German: that If France has any “traditinal enemlies” they are the inhabitants of the “tight little island” across the channel. o pro is no peo- the reparations expected among ade has the of | | of plan This move not only quieted the po-| as | Of course, Franco - Germa tions are based not on sent on cold busin has the iron mi many has the Ruhr. Nefther is much the other. If your horse and you have pretty likely to long run other ver England Opposex The flirtation has yet, nor even Part of t ditions of the are all against tinental alliunc eign off vent th es of Lorrair coking coal good withou neig has WAEOD yOu ar rin like ea we Alliance. n rous ing out of ready to use Frane her @ how this There with recogn tries of ¥ France. The ally the oniy f out against suck Soviets Not ¥ The 1 Sentimenitalists. noticed, It the They a the main French j with much more polit sideration than the F not mean that Russia tude by ng with than England What Sov | is money with her industries money for ¥ find in Fr. ple are bonds kentimen hough th and this doe Stow arat France rat course wa e chai th tish. t union needs chief nee T n to New Russia and York. trade with race b, York taking « {back with | over both th The situat but it re it will b Conserv rule suy mains passed done. servati | the nece done As matter agreeabls done |t {1t vic At now a lot of dis will have vatives will ha e ! ou | [ Fn mill o It i dead, but {1t polled the I part ! this “ in las although, be contests, numbe ed a proportionate France Back to Pre-War Politics. Polit , France has pre-war situation ally returned Except t for th post - wa Parlia ened muc ut not numerous in | ment as they deal Fre are figu by parties are The but th th will the f talk about nt a third of ajority, and at ull w He Briand of Bartho Joseph Caiilau granted amnest; the high « probably wi a few months perh [ genius ame prophet of a it 1s not nch govern Her probably n Tiot is rep. only present ed tor his under has just bees conviction ent He bye unlikely that will be the time nam financ con to_put that It is a tremend viction for “tr. a ministerial ixh nobody. -Ar illustration of ¢ war is being forgotter Indeed, perhaps the 1924, now that we con: {is the turning of peopl pust and toward the fut minister wt ent to today sreates thir at u from the Ttaly's Fascism on Decline. Mussoliy hand i continues to have the wl Italy, after a reign of thre vears, but his dictatorial powers already less absolute, anc is re preaching a return to constitutionzlisi The dictator’'s difficulty is that his followers have not as much commor sense as he has himself. He was glad to take advantage of their violent Fas cist sympa in the carly days of his dictatorship, and even to encourag: them in their brow-beating of politica opponents. But while the necessity for such tactics is now past, the ardent Fascisti are too fond of the sport of administering chastisement to their fel- |low-countrymen to abandon it, and t result s that the Fasclst name is get ting into bad repute. It began with the Matteotti affair, in which a Socialist deputy was found murdered with the complicity of some of Mussolini’s closest henchmien. Mus= solini tried to clean house and get rid of some of his more extreme partisani but without great success. It is ofte difficult to keep the pupil from outstrip- ping the master. The Dawes plan gave Germany i {stable currency, and Poland as well got on the band wagon and put her finan: In order. The other central and enstarn? Kuropean countries have managed tu keep their exchangs fulry stable. While the Dawes commiittes was 8- (Contniued on