Evening Star Newspaper, November 2, 1936, Page 11

Conservatives May Rule Congress Bloc of Two Parties Might Check Any Drastic Regulation. Today’s dispatch by Devid Law- rence, giving a forecast on the probable outcome of the congres- sional elections, is based upon the results of a questionnaire sent to well-informed persons in all the congressional districts, and upon observations on the senatorial situ- ation made by the writer during his trip through 40 out of the 48 States. BY DAVID LAWRENCE. ONTROL of both houses of ‘ Congress would seem to be assured to a coalition of con- servative Democrat and Re- publicans. Counting strictly on party labels, however, there will be a gain for the House tives with a pos- sibility that this number may be increased if the present swing to- ward Gov. Lan- don materially in- creases the total Republican vote In certain States where various congressional dis- tricts are doubt- ful The present Congress—the seventy-fourth—has 309 Democrats, 100 Republicans, 7 Pro- gressives and 3 Farmer-Laborites and 16 vacancies. But the Congress to be elected this week, which takes office on Juary 3 next, may see a minimum of 259 Democrats, 150 Republicans, 6 Progressives and 3 Farmer-Laborites. If the 17 doubtful districts go almost evenly to the Republicans and the Democrats, then the totals would be 267 Democrats, 159 Republicans, 6 Progressives and 3 Farmer-Laborites. The significance of the foregoing is that the Democrats seem certain to| lose the two-thirds weapon Wwhich | they have had heretofore in order to suspend the House rules. There are many occasions when a two-thirds vote can jam legislation through when demanded by the President. With only 259 votes, the Democrats will fall short by 31 of the 290 needed to over- rule committees and upset the normal priority that some bills have. Defection of 41 Could Rule. Likewise with only 250 votes in the Democratic majority, the defection by about 41 Democrats of the conserva- tive school of thought would give a conservative coalition a majority on vital pieces of legislation. The dimi- nution by 41 is not a very large num- ber as votes sometimes go on bills in the House. In the Senate, there are some im- portant changes coming, too. Thus the present Senate has 69 Democrats, | 22 Republicans, 2 Farmer-Laborites and 1 Progressive. Two seats are vacant—one Republican and one Democrat. The probable complextion of the Benate would appear to be a gain of four or possibly six Republicans and, assuming the latter, the line-up would be: Democrats, 64; Republicans, Farmer-Labor, 2; Progressive, 1. tal, 96. Only a third of the members of the United States Senate are up for elec- tion as usual, but there are four seats in which vacancies occur for unex- pired terms so that 36 Senators will be elected. Party Labels Misleading. The party label will not count for 8o much, however, in the senatorial elections. Thus if Governor Johnson of Colorado, conservative, is elected on the Democratic ticket, he will replace Benator Costigan, Democrat, who has been regarded as a radical. Likewise, the possible defeat of Senator Norris in Nebraska would remove a nomnal Republican who has been voting with the Democrats and elect Robert G. Simmons, who would become a mem- ber of the regular Republican group in the Senate, though he has Pro- gressive leanings. Again it is important to note that party label divisions do not mean everything. When it comes to the confirmation of a justice of the Su- preme Court of the United States, nominated by the President to fill a vacancy, party lines would disap- pear. If the nominal Democratic line-up is 64, it can be taken for granted that 25 of that number would refuse to confirm to the Supreme Court a man who, it was believed, would decide cases on a political basis, rather than in conformity with es- tablished precedent. The prospect that 25 Democratic Benators will form a group which will insist upon considerable revision of New Deal legislation and will op- pose the revival of the N. R. A. has David Lawrence. 29; To- win by & I it s News Behind the News tors Complicate Election Forecast. BY PAUL MALLON. F YOUR money is itching for action, bet on Mr. Roosevelt to I strong electoral but a comparatively short popular margin. Wise professional prophets generally are reluctant to make mainly because they are not sure whether the Literary Digest face figures are wrong at last. Other trustworthy signs indicate a different result. But few well-informed penple are sufficiently convinced to mortgage the house fusing faators which make this the hardest election to dope with certainty in many s year. The odds you hear from Wall Street bear signs at times of hav- at least at the mercy of a very few highly excited individuals on both sides, like the famous watchmaker who is supposed to have sent in If you try to judge prospects by inner signs at respective head- quarters, you will be confused. = ‘The Republican candidates are highly confident, but more than one expert all down the line as regards the final outcome, of course, but grave doubts exist about at least a dozen specific States. It may surprise you, but Semator George Norris is in & very precarious position, and may not pull through in Nebraska. Roose- money and should be less . . . don’t waste @ nickel on either side in Towa. Rosevelt has an edge, but it is 0o thin for a hard-earned penny to rest on . . . another one to avoid iz Ohio.” A jairly good survey indicates a Landon victory there by less than 15,000, and this repoi .5 indicate doubts about the assurance of @ Landon victory in Massachusetts, but he still has the best chance there . . . Pennsyl- vania should be considered at least a 10 to & bet for Landon . . . Illinois is another hard cle, with Roosevelt having the advantage show you how indecisive these analyses are becoming, the latest on Illinois indicated a 43,000 majority for Roosevelt out of 3,300,000 votes expected to be cast. ‘There have been many mysteries in this campaign, but the deepest is When Mr. Roosevelt bites a broker, that's no news. But when he invites three brokers into a conference a few days before election, you can easily imagine the stir created in both Washington and New York. The President could probably have picked a broker here and there from among influential than these three, but the selected trio certainly represented tops in the financial district, or very close to it. They fled into the presidential sanctum, remained more than 15 minutes and flled out again. They would not say what the ton~ ference offered later by the President. Both parties tried to pass it off as a social visit, but Wall Street guffawed. As one financial leader explained the situation: *“Mr. Roosevelt and brokers do mot miz socially these days.” cross streets, which will eventually come out. They are wrong. What happened was this: The three brokers were at a party recently, expressing their opinion of the President rather freely. A New Deal official, present, told them they were all wrong about Mr. Roosevelt. He suggested they like to meet him. They gave the polite answer and, about three days later, along came a White House invitation. In the meeting, Mr. Roosevelt did all the talking, and kept it confined to observations about the weather and such relatively small matters. No- importance. ‘The New Deal arranger of it was also wromg. For once, the Presi- dent’s friendly charm failed to to their duties unimpressed.” * % % % The Senate campaign investiga- tors came out with the results of d day, but no one printed it. The committee secretary called in newsmen to tell them the results of the committee’s long and hard investigation of charges that the P. W. A. is mized up in Pennsylvania politics. He started Glavis. The words had @ familiar sound. After the second para- graph, the reporters recognized the Glavis report as being exactly what Harry Hopkins had said after an impartial investigation of himself. or Hopkins from Glavis. But inasmuch as both reports were largely denials from local P. W. A. officials, it appeared possible that they repre- sented only a duplication of denials. Next the committee handed out a statement showing that a con- developed that Eddie Jones, W. P. A. chief in Pennsylvania, had furnished the only information on which this committee announcement was made. Inasmuch as Jones is the man being charged with creating a political machine out of W. P. A, some reporters suggested that he might be & Before that minor question could be answered, another reporter asked how come Jones knew the political affiliations of all his subordinates, if politics was banished from his thoughts. ‘There seemed to be no answer to this one, and the press conference committee had not said anything at all. The scene solidified the strictly non-partisan impression of newsmen that the Senate campaign investigation is the worst, or at least, the most one-sided, held by a congressional committee since the world entered upon Gamblers Advised to Bet on Roosevelt—Many Fac- not itching, do not scrateh it. and lot to raise money for s wager. Also, there are dozens of nther con- ing been tampered with, They are $200,000 on Roosevelt. in their entourage expresses only hope. Democratic confidence is supreme velt is a § to 4 favorite to carry the State, but Norris is only even conciusion is afirmed by the best judge on the State . . Late only because of respect for the Kelly-Nash machine in Chicago. To the White House adventure of three Wall Street brokers. the cliff dwellers around Broad and Wall who might be considered more ference was about. Nor was any satisfactory reason for the con- Even yet, some authorities suspect there was some smart work at the would really like him if they got to know him and asked if they would body said anything of the slightest work. The three brokers returned another brilliant expose the other reading a report made to the committee by its investigator, Louis It was not clear whether Glavis had received his report from Hopkins siderable percentage of W. P. A. supervisors were Republicans. Inquiry biased witness in favor of himself. adjourned, and some one suggested that it might have been better if the its present so-called age of enlightenment. been talked about privately in this campaign among some of those who are going down the line, so to speak, for Mr. Roosevelt this time, but who do not feel that he can expect their support if he deviates from his 1936 campaign promises. Promises in Speeches Noted. Mr. Roosevelt's statements in his speeches have been contradictory, but the assurances which he gave to busi- ness and the conservatives in recent utterances have been carefully noted by Democratic Senators who intend to hold him to the conservative side and to desert him if he proposes pol- icies at variance with the speeches he has made, The average citizen who is voting the straight ticket may think he is taking the easiest course, but there are many millions who prefer to be as eareful as possible about their choice of Representatives and Senators in Congress, and this would indicate much scratching of tickets. After all, the members of Congress are the direct spokesmen of the citisens, and whatever there is to popular govern- ment can be immediately ssserted in the face of possible centralization only if Representatives are held account- able by the people generally. Check Factor Gains. It the American form of govern- (Copyright. 1936.) wants to have an ace in the hole in the event that Mr. Roosevelt is re- elected and endeavors to go beyond the confines of constitutional govern- ment. Certainly the suhshmm! majorities which Mr. Roosevelt had in the last two Congresses will not be availab] to him again. From now on the con- servative-radical fight in Congreas will mean more than it ever has before. DN Hpy YOU fau woke the CHOICE! The session which begins in January will have to vote on pay roll taxes and the social security act amend- ments, as well as on the whoje subject of economy in government /and more equitable taxation. Hence/the mani- fest importance of considering con- gressional candidates not on party labels but on their respective philos- ophies and attitudes. (Copyright, 1936,) [CTURED above is & man who chose hair. The top picture shows Thomas client George Benner when he started Thomas treatment. 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BATURDAY to 3:30 P 3 'HE opinions of the writers on this page are their own, not necessarily The Star’s. Such opinions are presented in The Star’s eflort to give all sides of questions of interest to its readers, although such opinions may be contradictory among themselves and directly opposed to The Star’s. 'On the Record If Roosevelt Wins, Harmony Should Replace Threats and Accusations to Attain Goals. BY DOROTHY THOMPSON. ¥ PRESIDENT ROOSEVELT'S re-election were less possible than it seems to be today, his speech of Saturday night might be ex- cused on the ground that in politics every means justifies the end. The mwbnun campaign has been char- acterized by imprecision, bmerun and methods of pressure of which the best that can be said is that they were resort- ed to because the ‘opposition had, from the start, to work uphill against a powerfully en- trenched adver- sary, with potent Ppressure weapons of his own. But the Presi- ent did not have a use such Derethy Thompsen. methods, and until his Madison Square Garden speech it is fair to say that whether one agrees or not with all or part of his policies, he personally had conducted his cam- paign with & minimum of trickery and the maximum of good humor and geniality. The Madison Square Garden speech was not good tempered, it was not tolerant, it was not fair, it was not uplifting, it was not even revolution- ary. It showed anger, vindictiveness and a lack of poise which was dis- turbing. Worst of all, it was not in the least constructive. In spite of the numerous references to internal and external peace, it could but serve to confirm the worst fears of those who believe that the President is intent on substituting himself and his own ideas, his own policies and his own hunches, for the checked and balanced Government of this country. Attitude Tnvites Strife. There is obviously no preconceived idea in his mind of establishing a personal dictatorship on the Fascist or Communist model, but it seems now quite certain that the President has worked himself up to the point where he believes that a mystical compact exists between him person- ally and the American people, and that the various branches of State and Federal Government are to be used or circumvented according to whether they work or not within the spirit of that compact. This attitude of mind will not engender peace. This column does not doubt the sincerity of the President when he says that the people and himself (you | and 1) feel that not everything is perfect in this democracy of ours and that there is room for reform. There is, indeed, room for reform, and the great weakness of the Republican campaign has been that it has failed to mobilize the vital spirit of evolu- tion, which is the breath of every living democracy. But this column is not prepared to admit that the people of this country can be either frightened or bullied into progress and social reform, on faith in & per- mlmy. and on nothing else. Mr. Roosevelt wins it will be hfllu. he is offering leadership, and it is & fact that all the nations of the world want leadership today. They want it s0 much that some of them have given up everything else for it. But as long as a people is free, that leadership must depend upon. deeds which convince and argument which persuade. If there is a world-wide struggle ‘between democracy and dic- tatorship, democracy will not save itself by repeating indefinitely that it is the most perfect form of govern- ment, because it is the one that can indulge in political laissez faire and social inaction. The whole problem of democracy is not to remain still, resting on a revolution of 150 years #go. ‘The problem of democracy is to remain alive, and the problem of democratic government is dual: (1) To crystalize the aspirations of the people, and (2) to devise methods by which these aspirations can be made practicable. But the most dangerous of all tendencies in a democracy is to incorporate these aspirations in a single personality, or to repose in any one the power to express them in practice. Moving Moral Question. ‘The demand for leadership, for progress, for reconstruction, is strong that if Mr. Landon is elected he, too, will take it into account. The coun- try will not rest, whatever happens, until & new definition of its aims, of its ideals, and of its fundamental creeds finds expression. This is not merely & matter of legislation and methods. It is a moral question, and a very deep one. If the New Deal was not copy- righted—and, especially, if there had not been a New Deal in the last four years—the problem would not now arise whether a New Deal is, or is not, wanted now. ‘There have been times when one has sensed in the President the con- sciousness of re-estimated moral and social values—a re-estimation which is the most vital part of our spiritual and intellectual life, and which is obvious everywhere, in the universi- ties, among the common people, among business managers, and in the minds of all who think. But at other times the President has given the impression that he did not know where he was going or where he wanted to go, and it has been impos- sible to guess whether the reforms he suggested and the speeches he made were inspired by a solid, consistent | understanding, or by an amateurish attempt to keep up with the undi- gested trend of the times. It is too bad that Mr. Roosevelt's campaign should have ended on the worst note of his career, that he should have shown himself under the most unpleasant and pettiest side of his complex nature. But it is no use, at this time, to waste any words on what will be, and should be, drowned in the flood of election results. ‘Tomorrow we shall know who will be President of the United States for Wey,»? the People Digest’s Sharp Shooting in 1932 Hoover Poll ° Based on Freak Errors. BY JAY FRANKLIN, editors of the Literary Digest have very courteously taken excep- tion to this column’s analysis of the 25 per cent margin of error inherent in their presidential poll for 1936. ‘They point out that in previous polis they have also canvassed s greater proportion of Republican voters than had actually been repre- sentative of the preceding election, without affecting the validity of mur‘ resuits. By this time the public s pretty weary of detailed percentages and ion statystics, so this column will simply outline its major thesis: The Literary Digest sent out only 10,000,000 ballots this year, as compared to the 20,000,000 which it mailed in 1932. This auto- matically halves the potential reliability of the poll as an election ‘barometer (especially if there has been any subscriptions and book sales) since this election tends to follow lines of income-class con- aciousness, However, in applying the test of “how they voted in the mvlous elec- tion” to the Digest poll for 1932, we find that those who recorded. their votes of 1928, on & State basis, indicated that those polled in 1932 would have given Herbert Hoover 404 electoral votes in 1928, Since Mr. Hoover actually re« ceived 444 electoral votes in 1928, this sizable error in prediction did not affect the main result, EREERY Now here we come to trouble. ‘The 1932 poll indicated that Hoover would get 57 electoral votes against Roosevelt. Actually he got 59 electoral votes. This looks like sharp shooting, until you discover that the nearly accurate result is based on & fantastic set of major errors. The Digest poll of 1932 assigned only 20 of Hoover’s electoral votes correctly: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and Connecticut. It gave him Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island, all of which were carried by Roosevelt; and it assigned to Roosevelt the votes of Delaware and Connecticut, both of which were carried by Hoover. Nine States were involved in this series of blunders and the Digest was right in only four of them—an error of 56 per cent, * k% % Ninety-six electoral votes were also involved and the Digest called only 20 of them accurately. On this point the Digest was 79 per eent wrong. And they were dealing with a land- slide. Since figures cannot rise above their source, let'’s see how the Digesters of 1936 voted in the year of the Roosevelt landslide, when, according to the Digest's own fig- ures, over two-thirds of Roosevelt's strength came from Republicans. This '36 crowd would have elected Herbert Hoover, even in 1932, ac- cording to & hasty survey of the final figures, these pre-digested balloteers would have given Hoover 26 States and 296 electoral votes, as against Roosevelt's 22 States and 235 electoral votes, in the very year when F. D. R. carried all but six States and received all but 59 electoral votes. In other words, this year the Digest is polling not only a pre- dominantly Republican group, but @ group which was so unrepre- sentative of the electorate that they fall into the category of die- hard Republicans. Therefore, their '36 poll is irrelevant, misleading and potentially ruinous to those who put their trust in it. (Copyright. 1936.) the mext four years. If # is to be | velt define them. He ocannot go on | Mr. Landon, we shall wait until he | referring to them as “they.” The has had time to prove whether he can | time has come for free and well-con- grasp what this column, in all hu- | sidered discussion, of ideas, and par- mility, considers essential: The Na- | ticularly, of methods. tion’s desire for a redefinition of its whole attitude toward the things it | is supposed to live by. If it is Mr. Roosevelt, we want to be confident that the speech of Madi- son Square Garden was nothing but; the expression of a moment of anger and resentment, and not the last word of his political conviction. If it is Mr. Roosevelt, we feel that in spite of all he has accomplished during the last four years, he will understand that his real contribution to this country and to the world be- gins now. Improvisation must stop. The crisis is over. Accusations and threats must stop. If this country has internal enemies let Mr. Roose« heart and emotions and interests of the masses. But he has also ap- | pealed to the intelligence of many of the best thinking citizens of this country in all walks of life and all States. Those two appeals must be harmonized if they are to be effective. After the bitterness of the cam- paign is over the chances are th: men and women of good will will a results. But if they are to follow the example of the President and have to be restored. (Copyright, 1936, Mr. Roosevelt has appealed to the | cept the fait accompli, whatever the‘ “roll | up their sleeves” instead of “twirling | their thumbs,” their confidence will | Headline Folk and What They Do Cole Porter Brings Jungle Rhythm From Bali to Stir New York. BY LEMUEL F. PARTON. EW YORK, November 2.—Cole Porter, with & cork hat, a portable piano and a sheaf of sharp pencils as his principal accessories, went down to the Island of Bali to get the pitch and rhythm of “Red, Hot and Blue.” The show, opening in New York, spills some bar- baric rhythms which make one forget election sound trucks and other such quadrennial disturbances of nocturnal peace. ‘This veteran kibitzer occasionally | gets out his cork hat and explores the jungles of youth. Tribal loyalty to Cole Porter runs high. If it is really better to make the country's songs than its laws, the Seventy-fifth Con« gress will make a low bow in his dire: tion and chant “You're the to) Jerome Kern, with his European retro- spect, is in danger of becoming a classic. Cole Porter, casual and collo- quial, stirs no Viennese afterglow. Casualties among classics are heavy these days. Some industrious space= grabber could work up quite a piece about the cultural antithesis of Messrs, Kern and Porter. Mr. Porter grew up on a farm near Peru, Ind., where the circus has its Winter quarters. Hence, possibly, his ground-and-lofty rhyming—he writes words and music. He went to Harvard Law School for one year. The dean tactfully suggested that it might be a Ixood idea for him to catch up with his | music. Which he did. going to war | first, in the French Foreign Leglon. After the war, he studied in Italy, came home and helped George S, Kaufman with “Fifty Million Frenche men.” He never played a piano in tin pan alley. He speared success as neatly as he spears a rhyme or a tune on the wing. To this observer, he appears to be the only triple-threat composer. He | gets the Broadway sophisticates, the ultra and outre Park avenue fans and the big mob of run-of-the-mill citizens who never get punch-drunk with jungle rhythm and catch-as-catch-can rhyming. Aside from all that, he's a musician. He is a small, shy, thoroughly ur- ban person, with no banks of the ‘Wabash Nostalgia about him—the last man in the world one would pick to rig Jimmy Durante with a prepostere ous travesty. There's a story that Charles Francis Coe once fought Battling Nelson 30 rounds in Brownsville, Tex. This writer never could get the straight of | it. Anyway, he seems to be booked for an even longer bare-knuckle cone test against racketeers, and there a | hints that he will make his new o | ganization of New York vigilantes a ‘mmnnal affair. Just now, supporte | ing Landon, he battles supposed fraue | dulent registrations in New York City, He was born in Buffalo in 1890, was one of the handiest welterweight clouters in the Navy, shuffied back to | Buffalo and sold real estate at the start of his varied business career. He is intent on pointing the moral of his Niagara and underworld chron- icles. (Copfright, 1936.) Relief from hard rubbing . .. faded clothes! 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