Evening Star Newspaper, September 28, 1930, Page 29

- Editorial Page Part 2—8 Pages he Sunday S WASHINGTO! DaTOs MORD EDITORIAL SECTION 7. G, SEPTEMBER 28, 1930. SUNDAY ' LOSS OF WORLD'S MARKETS SEVERE BLOW TO ENGLAND Situation Is More Critical Than Average Englishman Thinks—Various Peace Treaties Seen as Factors. i BY CONSTANTINE BROWN, Noted Writer cn European Affairs. O where is Great Britain heading? Is this mighty country doomed, or is there any salvation? This is the problem which the repre- sentatives of the dominions will have to examine carefully and find an | answer to this question, which every| understanding Britisher has been ask- ing himself for the last two years. Can| Britain survive by the introduction of | high tariffs, as the majority of its leaders and the man in the street seem to think, or is her salvation conditioned by the merger of all the dominions and the mother country into a huge federa- | tion which will be completely different | from the old British Empire we have | known heretofore? | ‘To the casual observer who spends fi‘ly & few months in that island, Eng- | d appears to be prospercus. Certain outward signs, however, set even the | most unobserving traveler thinking. | ‘The tourist is shocked to see in the| main streets of London, such as Bond, | Regent, Piccadilly, Pall Mall and other | world-renowned thoroughfares, groups| of able-bodied men—one playing a somewhat strange unicord violin, an-| other accompanying him with two spoons, imitating castinets; the third| grinding an antiquated barrel organ on Wwhich is written “Help the poor ex- service men”: two others occupying strategic positions on both sides of the . sometimes with too much | POSS¢ Toad, begging, insistence, for a few coppers. Spend Night on Benches. Then, again, should the American Visitor walk after midnight along Vic- toria embankment, the streef, bordering | the Thames, or the famous and aristo- cratic Mall, the street leading to the King's palace, sée men, women and children huddled together on benches where they spend the night. These are members of the vast army of unemployed who cannot & dime for a bed in the poorhouse. little money they get on their dole | is just sufficient to provide them with bread, a little sausage and some tea. ‘This state of things applies not only to the capital of the mighty British gaplre, but to most of its provincial es. ‘These are ominous signs of the pres- | ent situation in the United Kingdom. Generally they are considered by the casual observer as incidents of little food,*if not so0 good, is at least higher priced than in America’s most expen- sive hotels, and other such outward signs of prosperity. Situation Is Critical. ‘The situation n England is critical— | 8¢ more critieal than the lishman abroad year b‘mfi average Eng- the investments bring some $250,000,000 & count Eng part formed an independent Tepublic, Czechoslovakia. was added to Poland. Germany was | deprived of her Silesian coal mines and Italy acquired new territories, giv- ing her larger trading lwl.';’l;.:u‘d Two new republics sprung up—Poland and Czechoslovakia — with _comparatively large populations. Purely agricultural states such as Rumania and Jugoslavia saw their territories largely increased with provinces rich in coal and iron. Industries Encouraged. ‘The first move was to encourage in- fustrial enterprise which theretofore had been denied to them by the lack of coal and iron. Special laws, giving preferential treatment to the home dustries were passed by their respe tive parliaments and everything im- aginable was done to_encourage' this | new source of national wealth. High | tarifis were adopted against all manu- factured products which formerly had been admitted duty free. Hungary, no longer a part of the| Austrian empire and deprived of a! large portion of her arable land was faced with bankruptcy. Before the war she had a small industry of her own, although her main source of in- come was the export.of corn and Wwheat. In order to save the situation the Hungarian rulers developed the ex- isting factors and now are able to soll %o their neighbors manufactured moods Which they used to import from Eng- land et a much lower price, Czechoslovakia, even in the days when it was a part of the Austrian em- pire, had a flourishing industry. « As an independent state she was forced to develop her industries far beyond her | own needs and today is in a Pposition | to supply 45 per cent of the needs cf Central and Southeastern Europe. France and Belgium, which once preduced articles of luxury such as silks, perfumes, fine steel and lace, were compelled by necessity to adopt some of the English “lines” and tocay are selling goods which before the war were purchased exclusively from Bir- mingham and Manchester. Germany Taking Old Place. Germany is steadily resuming her old ce as the industrial provider of ope. Italy under Mussolini's rule has adopted an energetic industrial policy. Although she lacks coal anc iron, the number of her factories has increased considerably. ‘The Italian diplomats are using political persuation to intro- duce Itallan-made goeds Into the Balkans, Political treaties are nego- tiated containing clauses which give Italian industry a preferential treat- ment. Thus Xhl‘{‘ahutbee: able to l{;ro- sure a sition for her manufac- tured mxoogc&o throughout Central and Southeastern Europe. With semi-industrial states becom- ing incustrialized, the English industries are losing their markets, while before the war her serfous competitor was England has come to realize ol el's back. Most of the continental s | has hxduc::’mem to establish prohibi- Yet_another | SuT ‘The World War revealed to many of states the importance of being independent, not only politi- cally but economically as well. Politi- cal nationalism was linked with eco- nomic nationalism. This new commer- cial sentimentalism had a harmful re- ussion on the British industries, Before 1914 most of the small states hac accepted their economic dependence on some of the big powers as an in- evitable fact. Trying to develop their own industries was futile, because it did not pay. . Learn Lesson From War. Hardships they had to undergo throughout the war opened their eyes. Serbia and Rumania were entirely de- | pendent for war material on France | ané Great Britain. Had they possessed even a small but well organized indus- try of their own they could have met their needs without being at the mercy of their powerful allies. This, they made up their minds, must not happen again, and since they all confidently expect a new war within the next few years, their governments decided to build up an industry of their own which could be transformed into muni- tions and arms factories whenever the necessity arose. All Central and Southeastern Euro- pean States have learned their lesson from the war experiences of the two above-mentioned countries, and now css adequately u}u!pped. up-to-date factories which supply to a certain ex- ‘The reason only small orders are placed in that country is & purely financial one. England'’s return to the gold stand- ard was the straw that broke the cam- currencies have depreciated consider- ably, while the English currency has gone back to its pre-war value. Coun- iries like Juglotlavia, Bulgaria, Ru- mania and Turkey prefer to place an order in Italy or France, where they have to pay only seven or eight times the pre-war price, instead of purchasing what they need from England, where their currency is quoted at only the fortieth part of its original value. As a_ result, England’s immense factories, which used to supply the world's markets, are idle while her leaders are asking each other what to do next. It is depressing to read the returns fetins ‘publisncd. by the Department of letins the nt of COmmerwee. Civil war in China and the passive-resistance campaign in India have further damaged England’s export trade. Bankers Too Careful. Another cause of the British of a:rld markets s believed to be banking, ), are too careful and do not feel that they can anfi’fly any risky mvagngnt. ?on. ‘sequently, prefer a sa or 6 per cent investment in South America to an investment in any of the European countries. The result is that even if heastern ites I'S:‘u to place a substan- r count try. logan adopted by most of kuro- an states, “Buy national goods and eep your money at home,” together with the desire of thelr treasuries to obtain mo; from any available source, tive tariffs on all imported products. England and the United States are has had so far only little to suffer from these high tariffs, free-trading England finds it a serious blow. The free-trade doctrine is deeply rooted in the minds of the very conservative English people and no official politica! party has had the cour- age yet to come out openly with a pro- tective tariff suggestion. Heavy Duties Exacted. It is true in the last few years that special bills have been passed by Parlia- ment taxing heavily many ported products. As a matter of fact, when the list of taxable commodities is sub- mitted by customs officers to the traveler entering these islands he has the impression of being in the New York customs house. Silks in any shape or form, leather goods, cameras, tobacco, alcohol, manufactured silver and gold, perfumes, soap, motor cars, technical instruments and many cther manufactured products are subject to & duty varying from 25 to 55 per cent. But these import taxes help the treas- ury more than British industry, because the English people have never ceased being partial to English manufactured goods, which they have always bought in preference to imported products. Continental Europe does not suffer se- riously from these tariffs because their agricultural products continue to enter the kingdom duty free. But England’s exports have been crippled by the enor- mous taxes imposed by continental gov- ernments on every le manufac- tured in that country. | Many people compare Britain with | ancient Rome—a small country with | an empire extending over the reven | seas. Australia, Canada, South Africa, India and many smaller countries and islands owe allegiance to King George V. This being the case, why should this country worry about her trade and in- | dustry, when more than half a billion people are her citizens? ‘The World War has had a serious repercussion on the relations between England and the empire. The domin- ions and the colonies sent their sons to help the mother country, but after the war they have become individual states. ‘They obtained a greater freedom as a reward for the sacrifices they had made for the mother country. The dominions are now completely independent eco- nomically and England can no longer dump her industrial prodlcts in her own colonies. Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have their own cabinets and their own parlia- ments. India soon will follow their example, Look to Own Prosperity. The King of England continues to be recognized as ruler, but his repre- sentative, which carries the mis- nomer of governor, has little more p;;er thntn an Ambluudfi: in ; for- elgn country. Local parliamen int or dismiss the cabinets, and ::; e | rupt. This September the Cuba com- | WS pass are not subject to the liaments and governments approval of Westminster. The Pll; must look Cuban Revolt Rumbles Grt;at Factors Involved in Present State of Unrest in Island Republic Are Revealed " Note—What 1is happening in Cuba? Is revolution impending? tion, formed to educate the Joreign_afairs, and o Latin Ame: ment at Haro ople in he ‘is an authority a. He taught govern- ard,’ and lectured on_the same subject at Columbia and Occi- dental College. Mr. Buell represented the Foreign Policy ‘Association at the Pen-American Conference of 1928, in Havana, BY RAYMOND LESLIE BUELL. UMBLINGS of revolution have come out of Cuba the last two | years. And with the recent suc- cess of revolutions in Bolivia, Peru and Argentina, not to mention Haiti and Santo Domingo, | these rumblings have increased. | If revolution in that island actually | occurs, the American people will be| vitally concerned. Cuba lies at the very | door of the United States; Cuba is the | center of giant. investments; Cuba is bound by the Platt amendment. ‘There are two causes for these rum- | blings in Cuba. The first is economic depression; the second is political dicta- torship. Cuba depends for its existence on sugar. A few years ago it produced as much as 5,000, tons a year. For a time Cuba was immensely wealthy. But since the war a reaction has come. New World sources of cane and beet sugar have been developed. Sugar has become a glut. The price has de- clined from 12 cents in 1920 to 1.12 cents. ith the decline American and Cu- o ing bank- showed a loss of $633,000. hroru &nt{le United States to Cuba declined from $181,000,000 in 1925 to $115,700,- 000 last year. ‘One-Crop’ Country. Cuba does not produce its own food. It has been a one-crop country, or very nearly so. And wil the decline in sugar the capacity to buy food abroad has diminished. Last year the Cuban Congress re- pealed the Arteaga law, which forbade sugar centrals paying their men with orders on company stores. Since then many laborers have worked merely in return for food. Thousands are living| in misery, and there is little Lope for the immediate future. Under model political conditions such economic distress would sooner or later cause unrest. And this unrest is aggra- vated by the nature of the Machado government. Gen. Gerardo Machado was elected President in_ 1924. Before and after election he repeatedly promised to e at the end of four years, in ac- cordance with the platform of the Lib- eral party. Nevertheless, because of the growing seriousness of the economic situation and of the belief that his ad- ministration alone could meet it, Presi- dent Machado changed his mind. Ivor of single presidential of six years. But it declared that the restric- BY RAYMOND POINCARE. O we are incorrigible! Here, at the very moment when the horizons on all sides of us are clouding, we seem to be search- ing for Heaven knows what kind of unhealthy pleasure in the reawak- ening of old arrels. Instead of re- minaing ourselves that' tomorrow we may have to face the gravest of eco- nomic difficulties and that we have got to pull together to insure our. triumph over them, we are wasting our time on mutual reproach and in useless re- criminations. What is the use? Why do we not see ahead, go forward and leave the past behind? In Lorraine the wisdom of the in- habitants has never more severely con- demned the spirit of struggle. “What does it matter to us,” they say, “what ought to have been done to establish the solid foundation of peace? We have known all the horrors of war at the closest quarters and have no wish to bring them back. All we ask is that the real friends of peace shall get to- gether and agree, not only on what they have got to do, but on what they- have got not to do to maintain it.” It is over 11 years since, on the eve of the day the treaty of Versailles was to be signed, I spoke these words to President Wilson: “We are just as anxious as you that peace shall not be just a meaningless word, nor just a fugitive hope, nor just a feeble glim- mer passing one night over a bleedlng Europe.” When I spoke these words was_confident I was speaking for the whole of France; for, though we were about to recover our lost provinces, we had experienced the terrors of invasion and had fought only because we had been forced to fight. We were thank- ful enough at length to be part of & world of peace. Has No Illusions. Personally, however, I did not allow myszlf to enjoy any illusions about the future. There were already indications which showed us that we should have to exercise a watchful control for a long time to get the treaties carried out. Ships promised to England and sunk by their crews, French flags burned by a delirious soldiery at Pots- dam, strange rumors of arms . along | hg, the re-established frontiers of Poland— these were hardly signs of the re- pentance of the conquered aggressors. 1 added to my remarks, just as President Wilson was leaving France, “We are ;mu as anxious as you €or the League of Nations to become a reality for the good of the world. We are just as anxious as you that all the clauses our former enemies are going to sign shall be loyally observed, with- out arriere-pensees and without any false pretexts for escape. . . . Re peace can only come about as the re- sult of continuous creative effort, and above all this effort has got to be the collective effort of the member and as- sociate natiogs.” . . . President Wil- son answered me with the most friend- ly assurances, but, alas! he misjudged his own influence and the collaboration he fi:’gmhfid us was soon to be refused by Nation he represented. ‘The security pact which Clemenceau had with such difficulty obtained was Tepudiated In turn by the United States and by Great Britain. These successive Te) lations shook the main column of Versailles, Prance forced herself, none- theless, to stay the column up and to bulld upon it the Temple of Peace. My country showed from the very & marvelous atience in the 4 af | Shrink, it is PRESIDENT MACHADO OF CUBA. tion of a single term did not apply to highway; it has erected a number of the President then in office, and that| hqspitals. Gen. Machado could therefore be re- elected. Inaugurated for Second Term. An election was held in November, 1928, at which Gen. Machado was the | single candidate of the three organized parties. Instead of retiring in May, 1929, President Machado was inaugu- rated for a second term, that will not expire until May, 1935, One of President Machado’s chief ambitions has been to bring about the economic salvation of Cuba. His ad- ministration has encouraged agricultu- & 4. has._constructed posing capitol bullding; it has done much to beautify Havana; it has mearly completed a 700-mile central RAYMOND realization of her wish for international rmony. More than 10 years have passed since I ventured, in an article in the Revue des Deux Mondes, the following discreet observation: “Each time Raphael de Valentin saw *e ass's skin of sorrows he had received talisman shrink in his prodigal hands, it was at least in exchange for & wish realized or for a desire satisfied. But, where we are concerned, every time we see the terms of the treaty in exchange for a decep- tion. What with London, with San Remo, with Hythe, here we have the specter of revision visiting us at almost every turn.” Since then the specter has not by any means privileged us with the withhold- ing of his visits. We have witnessed the renunciation of Article 227 cf the treaty and of the terms concerning ‘Wilhelm II, previously declared guilty of a “supreme offense against interna- tional morality and against the sacred authority of treaties.” ‘We have witnessed since then the re- nunciation of Article 228, which was to allow us to nru:gu:efore our military courts German s accused of hav- ing committed, in the course of hostili- ties, acts con to the rules and customs of ‘We have witnessed ‘This public works program has been financed with loans guaranteed by spe- cial taxes. When Gen. Machado took office in 1924 the Cuban government |had a debt contracted since 1904 of $97,000,000. But the President has bor- rowed in New York a total of $89,000,~ 000. Meanwhile government revenues have been declining, and the fiscal year 1929 closed with a deficit of $7,000,000. Despite drastic salary euts and other economies, the present year shows a similar unsatisfactory condition. Critics of President Machado works am has | unproductive, and that it has contrib- | uted to the present financial crists. ™ - From the political standpoint critics contend that President Machado's sec- POINCARE. | the " progressive modification of the | causes relative to land and naval dis- armament. Reparation Reductions. We have witnessed successive reduc- tions in the reparation total, the ac- ceptance of the Dawes and again the Young Plan, the early evacuation of the occupled zones. In short, we have witnessed a long series of releases from obligations undertaken by Germany, in exchange for—nothing. ° We could have supposed that such numerous concessions might at least, in the eyes of our former adversaries, have been worth something as an earnest of our sincerity and good will. But how is it that our neighbors, if they wish to take part in the building up of a lasting peace, do not recognize the perils to the transquillity of Europe involved in the variegated, nevertheless convergent, campaign of President Hin- denburg, of Herr Wirth and of Herr Treviranus? Here again is the old specter of revision. This time its wants, apparenily, to redivide territories; it even wants to correct the compositions of peoples. “You need not be anxious,” we are told, “about your own. frontiers. We ‘would approach you in the mat- ter of troops back into the b | ond term is illegal. In 1919 Gen. Endch Crowder d.rew“ up an electoral code for party machinery. But during the last | few years Congress has enacted laws | emasculating the Crowder code. As a result it is declared that the organized parties are all under | the complete control of President Ma- chado, and that it is impossible for the | Nnuonuut_rgnny to participate in any election. is party, the only opposi- tion, is led by Col. Carlos Mendietta | and Cosme de la Torriente, former Am- bassacor to Washington. Hold Convention Illej | The Nationalists contend that the| 1928 constitutional convention was il- legal. They also charge that the gov- ernment has repeatedly suppressed their meetings and the liberty of the press. In the Spring of 1928 Dr. Iturralde, minister of war, suddenly fled to New York, where he declared that “count- less assassinations have been perpe- trated by orders of the government h its agents.” Only a few weeks ago the editor of an anti-Machado pa- per, Senor Pacheco, was shot in the streets of Havana. Confmenting on the murder, the Critica deciared: “It is said that the crime was political. * * * It is neces- sary that for the honor of all, espe- clally for the honor of the government and of the administration of justice, this statement should be proved ta be not true. * * * Now, more than ever, the supreme authorities must demand that the police, so skillful in discovering conspiracies, many times non-existent,| :}'wul. I:er:n: the murderers to jus- ice. This has not yet been donme. The authorities say it Cuba is not the only country where it is impossible to apprehend all murderers. Moreover, it is contended that Cuba has been a hot- bed of Communists, who must be treat- ed with severity. Generally, it is con- tended that the arguments against President Machado are those invariably used in Latin-American countries against the ins by the outs. Press Given Freedom. In the Summer of 1929 President Machado announced that he would al- low the Nationalist party to nr icipate in ‘the elections of November, 1930. Thereafter” the press was allowed a greater freedom, But, except for an | abortive effort in Congress to restore | the Crowder code, no further steps were taken to reorganize the political situ- ation until a few months ago. In July a prominent business man, S. Antonio Gonzalez de Mendoza, medi- ated between the President and the Elgm}l‘:tl Iuha ne'ou.lutom the ationalists agreed to appoint repre- sentatives to a commission that would study how to restore democracy Cuba, but they laid down two condi- tions—first, that the commission should proceed on the basis that Machado's mu%fon in 1928 was fllegal; second, that the ‘bs‘r‘oidwder code and political refused to France and the Specter Ever Since Versailles, Nation Has Feared Scrapping of Treaty—Eyes Germany’s Action as to Poland. Rhineland, nor of reconstructing forti- fications at your g:cuku But we have no designs to take Alsace and Lor- raine. You can lloeg in peace. It is only. across there, right across there, a long way from you, in the extreme east of Europe, that we claim an adjust- We have got the Saar belong- , in spite of the treaty, and it g back to us. Then there are Eupen and Malmedy, the Walloon racial composition of which M. Renard, the former Socialist Senator for Liege, has failed materially in his recent work to Substantiate, and which we shall know how to take away from Belgium when the time seems proper. There Au(‘l“":\:k: I:M as German as Zurich, and w] Wwe propose consequently to absorb. But sufficient unto t:eqdny ko at present we are concerned only with the corridor and with Upper Silesia. What have you to complain about? Do not the treaty of Versailles itself and the covenant it incorporates allow us, according to article 19, to bring up for revision, on a determined point, an existing treaty?” " Reservations, Pointed Out. Herr Treviranus goes further. “Read for yourselves again,” he tells us, “the treaties signed at Locarno on the 16th of October, 1925. You will see, in the first place, that there are reser- vations, in article 6 of the Rhine pact, concerning all rights and obligations written down in the covenant. We have thus maintained the right to draw cer- tain advantages at some . date, from article 19. -Then again, turn to our arbitration pact with Poland. It is not In the text itself of the convention, but ‘only in the preamble that we have promised not to use violence.” from all appearances, Herr seems to have this idea at the back of his mind:. “We are not naive enough to forget that, according to the decisions of The Hague Court, agreements not figuring in the body of 2 treaty but only in its preamble are not legally binding. This leaves us with full power to bring about a change, in our manner, in the east.” Be that as it may. But let it not be forgotten that after Locarno German; signed the Briand-Kellogg pact. And on the day that she d she joined in the universal choir which heralded the advent of a new era for the human race and declared war outlawed. In no circumstances now can she resort to her own choice, she has deprived her- self of this means. Her only loophole of escape from her treaties, in the east as much as in the west, is article 19, No Time for Joking. That is ?mu sufficlent for us. This is no time for joking. Germany’s lead- ers know quite well, in the first place, that article 19 can be called up only in the cases of a treaty “which has be- come inapplicable,” or of an interna- tional situation which “jeopardizes the peace of the world.” ‘What at the present moment is dan- gerous for the' the mainténance of eastern frontiers, but Germany's obstinate determination to upset them. And again, before article 1'0, there is lnm'.he oovemt an article 5, according which de- cisions of the assembly or of the coun- fil mun.:;‘ onl! u"‘ihun“.' ifi"}: can y only assem unanimous in declaring it Wfi. DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS CONTROL HELD UNLIKELY -Minority Party May Make Great Gains in House—Senate Expected to Remain Republican. BY MARK SULLIVAN. HE , the climax of this Chimpeltn year, s Wil ‘the Democrats five weeks from next ‘Tu g - of Cdn; f both chambers or of one? lm.;olhould. the event would be sensational—so sensational that the biggest headlines In every newspaper office would be brought forth to an- nounce it. The event would be sensational in itself, because of the implications about legislation and the speculations about such a tide going on to elect a Demc- cratic President in 1932. The news would have an added quality bf sensa- tion because of its unexpectedness—for the anticipation now is that the Demo- crats will not win control of either Senate or House. That this is the present consensus there can hardly be any mistaking. If the Democrats should win on November ceding the election the outcome was not anticipated. . It may be boring to go back to the Maine result and it is inaccurate to re- rd Maine as a barometer in years fie the present. Yet Maine is the only omen we have; Maine is the one State that holds its election in early Septem- ber, nearly two months ahead of the others. Of the Maine result this year it can at least be said that it is in- conceivable Maine would have gone the way it did go the early part of this month if there had been, throughout the country as a whole, any such ground swell as would be necessary to flve the Democrats control of Congress November. Democrats Talk of 1910, ‘When Democrats express hopes of gaining control of Congress, they talk always in terms of a duplication of what happened in 1910. “The 1910 parallel,” or, as it is otherwise phrased, “the Taft parallel in 1910,” is con- stantly cited by the Democrats as rea- son for belief that they will gain con- trol of at least one chamber of Con- gress in November. The 1910 parallel to the present year —as the Democrats trace it—runs as follows: “In 1910 a Republican, Willlam H. Taft, was President, serving his first term; in 1930 a Republican, Herbert Hoover, is President, serving his first term. In 1910 Taft had called a spe- clal session of Congress to enact a tariff law; in 1930 President Hoover had called a special session of Congress to enact @ tariff law. In 1910, in the elections, the Democrats won contrcl of the House; in 1930, in confl'slmul elections, the Demo- in :‘r‘:n will win control of the House.” ‘That is the parallel as the Democrats put it. But all of us, in constructing parallels, or otherwise ari {fromn precedent, tnose conditions that point the way we want them wn'polntx So Democrats, is mno Roosevelt.” Roosevelt Effect Great. ‘Without any doubt the mere presence upon this earth of Theodore Roosevelt made the year 1910 politically different from the year 1930. More than any other one factor the existence of Theo- dore Roosevelt accounted for the Demo- crats winning the House (or, to put it the other way, for the Republicans losing the House). 1t is true Roosevelt's historic quarrel with Taft had not begun at the time of the 1910 congressional elections--or, more accurately, it had not come into the open; that was for two years later. But there was in 1910 in the Republi~ can party & Taft faction and a Roose- velt faction. = Straight down through the party from top to bottom, through Republican Senators, Republican mem- bers of the House, Republican Govern- ors, Republican members of State Legis- latures, Republican local party officials —through every stratum of the party ran the cleavage between Taft men and Roosevelt men. Each of the two groups was determined to get control of the I party. In nearly every little election precinct, especially in such States as Indiana, there was a Taft Republican and a Roosevelt Republican fighting to get control of the machinery, which two years later would be potent in deter- mining the presidential nomination. It was this Nation-wide quarrel and these little local quarrels between Taft Republicans and Roosevelt Republicans that more than any other one condi- tion caused the Republicans to lose control of the House in 1910. Stated in the aggregate, it was the old story: ‘Two factions fought fer a prize; both lost it. It went to the outsider. That was the condition in 1910, ‘There is no parallel to it today. There is no Theodore Roosevelt. There is, therefore, no true parallel to 1910, Democratic Gain Conceded. To go back to Maine. Maine in 1910 elected a Democratic Governor, elected two out of Maine’s four Representatives in the House and almost elected the other two. Those results of the Maine election in September, 1910, were a suffi- cient portent of what was destined to occur in November, 1910. This year, in the Maine election a few weeks ago, the Republicans elected their Governor comfortably, elected their Senator com- fortably and elected all four Repre- sentatives in Congress comfortably. And Maine having done this, it is prac- tically inconceivable that there should be in the country this year any such ground swell as would give to the Demo- crats in November control of either the Senate or the House. While this is, so to speak, the in- evitable deduction from every major sign that we can recognize, there is no doubt whatever that the Democrats will make gains in both House and Senate. probably make quite . And in such a is a clear momentum in one direction, there is always the possibility of such a mo- mentum sweeping a little farther than any one anticipates. Democrats Need 11 Seats, If we dismiss everything about pro- gressive Republicans or Farmer- r- ites, if we look upon peace of the World is not | and 40 ( including 1 Parmer-Labor, nesota) the Senate it requires 49 to make . (If there is a tie, 48 1t | should are likely to lose at least one of their seats, that of Steck of Iowa, and may readily lose another, that of Senator Thomas F. Walsh Montana. On this assumption the Democrats need to take away from the Republicans not 9 but 11 seats. They cannot do it. Yet they will take away several. ‘The States where the Democrats have a chance to take a senatorial seat away from the Republicans are giving the Democrats a good deal of benefit of | the doubt: Massachusetts. Rhode 1Island. Delaware. Oklahoma. ©Ohio. Tllinos. Nebraska. South Dakota. Colorado. Minnesota. ‘There are 12 Republican senatorial seats, all of which, speaking practi- cally, the Democrats must take away from the Republicans in order to win even the narrowest control of the Sen- ate. They cannot possibly do it. On any law of averages they cannot do it. Moreover, that list gives, to an extreme degree, the benefit of the doubt to the Democrats. - To say, for example, that the Democrats have a_chance to win the senatorial seat in Minnesota, or in South Dakota, or in Nebraska, or in Illinois is to go very far indeed. Morrow Is Wanted. Of these senatorial fights there are three upon which the country has al- ready centered most of its interest. Rarely does the country as a whol carry the whole of & congressional cam- in its mind. Commonly, in such a year as this, the contests in one, two or three States stand out. The States in which, so far, sena- torial contests mise to stand out are Illinois, O and Massachusetts. There would have been interest in the New Jersey contest also but, for the fact that at present the Republican candi- te, Ambassador Dwight Morrow, is expected by practically every observer to win and win overwhelmingly. There is interest in the case of New Jersey and Mr. Morrow because the prospective elevation of Mr. Morrow to the Senate Is commonly looked upon as a_distinct addition to the quality of that body. Interest in the Illinols contest rests on several aspeets of it. The spectacle of a woman, Mrs. Ruth Hanna McCor= mick, having the nomination of a ma« li:r party for the United States Senate, sufficiently novel to justify interest on that ground alone. Mrs. McCormick is not quite the first woman to have & senatorial momination. In 1922, soon after the woman's suffrage amendment to the Constitution, a woman, Mrs. Peter Olesen, had the Democratic sena« torial nomination in Minnesota. The chance of a Democrat being elected in Minnesota, however, was small and that event, which was really the first case of a woman having & senatorial nomination from one of the two great parties, passed comparatively unnoticed. . Not First Woman, Neithey x- . McCormick, if she be el , be the first woman actually to sit in A few 2go, when there was an unfin- term of a very few days in the senatorship from Georgia, the Governor inted an elderly lady of the State aj as a compliment. Nevertheless, Mrs. McCormick is the first case of & woman having a party nomination and making an energetic fight with normal E‘mblhfllty of suc- Slone would aeemint Yor the e account for terest Illinols. In addition, - Democrats have %tzmlnukd an exceptionally able man, Robert Johns Bulkley, and that he is running as a wet. The ul lmnhungldlte, Roscoe C. M runni succeed himself, is a In Ohl‘n there is staged, theretal:,r’ [ -to-face contest of Re- publican dry vs, Democratic wet. The outcome will be very important indeed, The influence of the Ol result lies in the- fact that Ohio, more than any other one State, is looked upon as & barometer; more than any nther one State, Ohlo is considered by party mane agers and other politiclans who wish to gauge th Lo Sauge the varying drifts of public Massachusetts Doubttul. The third of the outstanding contests for the Senate is in Mm'ch\uetu. where, as in Ohio, a Republican dry, ex-Senatar Willlam M. Butler, is run- ning against a Democratic ‘wet, Marcus A. Coolidge. At the moment this is written, and ever since the nominations Wwere made, the prevailing tendency of observers his been to assume that Democratic Mr. Coolidge has rather th better chance of winning. This sumption rests in turn on another as- sumption, that Massachusetts is a wet State. The election in November will put both assumptions to the test. Elec~ ton of a Democratic Senator in Mas- sachusetts this year would be an event of really historic interest. If Marcus Coolidge should win Massachusetts would then be represented in the Sen= ate by two Democrats—and this has never happened before—at 1dast not since the Civil War and not since the term Democrat had its present signif- - icance in American party terminology, The case is really stronger than this, for Massachusetts, since the Civil War, has had but one Democratic Senator, the present one, David I. Walsh. That Massachusetts should be represented in the Senate by two Democrats, David I. Walsh and Marcus Coolidge, would be a landmark in American history — and would seem very strange to the old-time Republicans who represented Massa~ chusetts in the Senate, such as Henry Cabot Lodge, Murray Crane, George F. Hoar and so on back through a long list of Republican worthies. The Democrats may win two out of these three outstanding senatorial con- tests, and they may win several of the less important contests. But the aggre- E:u of Democratic winnings in Noveme r will be less than enough to give them control of the Senate. G. O. P. May Lose.in House. ‘When we turn to the House it is less easy to be certain. With what is said above about the Senate, hardly any- body will disagree; hardly any Demo- cratic leader expects the Democrats to win control of the Senate. But a con= siderable number of Democratic leaders sincerely believe their party may win control of thé House. The figures as respects the House are, allowing for & margin of vacancies: Democrats, 165. Republicans, 270. ‘To have a bare majority of the House the Democrats must win 53 seats. The nu:lnber. l:l.‘nlflundl large. ‘:l:cn time . and agal €Ol coming in the mi year, as the have been over than 53 seats. The Republicans will lose some seats tt | for at. least three n al Teasons. the loses some seats |