Evening Star Newspaper, September 14, 1930, Page 37

Editorial Page Part 2—8 Pages FUTURE OF GERMAN REPUBLIC AT STAKE Elections to Be Held Today Are Certain | to Have Far-Reaching . Cbnseq BY¥ PAUL SCOTT MOWRER. ERLIN.—What is pernaps the most important single election held anywhere in Europe since the World War will be fought ¥ out in Germany tomorrow. Public interest is intense and political passions, under the pressure of economic uncertainties, are running . ‘The campaign toll thus far is 6 dead and 165 wounded, 851 imprisonments and about .3,000 temporary arrests, and it would have been higher, it is declared, except for the skill and efficiency the police. It is widely considered that the re- sults can fundamentally affect not only the internal economic situation, the fu- ture foreign policy and even the future form of government, whether a genuine republic or & more or less dictatorship, in Germany itself, but through Germany it may influence the economic situation and the interior itical situation and international out- k of most other European countries. ‘The momentous drama of parties and eircumstances, of popular hopes and fears, can perhaps be best analyzed under three heads: FPirst, Germany’s economic difficulties; second, its lnre£ licy, and, third, its political difficul- 1. Economic problems unquestionably dominate the-election. The world crisis has grievously aggravated Germany's ivate financial crisis due to overspend- mc and unsound financing by various administrations. The number of un- employed now receiving doles is nearly 8,000,000. The budget deficit has been reduced by unpopular emergency meas- ures decreed by the present government, but even now is well, it is sald, over $100,000,000. This deficit is variously attributed to a 10 per cent decrease in tax returns, owing to bad business, to Increased doles and to special appropria- tions of $50,000,009 recently made, for reasons of internal and external politics, to East Prussia. Something, obviously, must be done, and done quickly. lr:tumm of both ‘of | tion laws under whic] EDITORIAL SECTION The Sunday Star. WASHINGTON, D. C, SUNDAY MORN NG, SEPTEMBER 14. 1930. uences. | Prance on the one hand or with Poland on_the other. ‘Within these limits, the only differ- ence between the parties seems to be that the Soclalists and Moderates favor walting and seeing in silence, while the more nationalistic parties believe it best to enliven the waiting and seeing with speeches and agitation. 3. Meanwhile everybody feels ob- scurely that this election is going - haps to decide the future of the 3:- mln‘ l’!:p‘m‘)]l’lc ‘P:;ulmenury govern- men alling into popular disrepute. ‘The proportional resentation elec- the republic has been operated have resulted in too many conflicting groups, whose cohesion into a majority able to govern with authority has proved almost impossible. ‘To fill about 500 seats in the Reichs- tag, 7,515 candidates are now running on 24 different lists. Voting, however, is not for persons, but for parties, and all votes count, so that gll the leaders of the big parties are sure of election simply by putting their own names at the top of their own lists. Formation of some governmental ma- ity under these conditions is a matter, largely of strange deals, dickers and combinations between ili-assorted groups. ‘The present Bruening government dis- poses about 200 seats based on the Right Center,” excluding Soctalists and the Communists on the Left, and the Hitler and Hugenberg groups on the Extreme Right. It is a minority gov- emment and has taken unto itself, pending further developments, dicta- torial powers, but its decrees must be ratified within three months by the new Reichstag and so, one way or an- ou‘ur. it must manage Its constituent groups have no com- and are more or less ‘Whatever happens, the present ernment has said that it has no ini tion of . mmwmmmmnm- means. ‘The foreign policy of all the parties except the extremists can sum- marized as one of “walt and see” de&emmwhlbl&“eml&mé::t how Germany hopes - ridor back without war, there widespread faith that something will happen some time which will enable Germany to drive a diplomatic bar- gain of some kind. Obviously, it is “necessary for Germany meanwhile to keep the question open; that is, to re- -fuse to make any far-reacl compro- mises and oonnlldluonlm:lthn 3:'& 'E—Miss Ida M. Tarbell, herself distinguished es an_editor and twriter, was asked by The Star and the North American Newspaper Alliance to select the 50 living women who have done the most for the welfare of the United States, in the arts, professions, business and other callings. ' Her selections follow. They Jollow the lst of men mamed re- cently by James W. Gerard as the “rulers of the United States.” BY IDA M. TARBELL. HAVE BEEN asked to name the 50 - living women who in my judgment haye done the most for-the welfare | of the United States, whether in business, in the arts, professions, social service or other callings. In selecting the list I have used a three-fold measuring rod: Ability (1) to initiate or create, (2) to lead or in- spire, (3) to carry on. This ruling auto- ma cuts out women of distin- guished achievement who have not yet proved their continuing power. ‘The names are grouped loosely into five classes—the achievements frequent- 1y overlap, that is, a name like that of | Jane Addams might rightfully appear among educators. - The list follows: Educators, Teachers, Scholars. Dr. M. Carey Thomas— ‘strong man,” Otto Braun. whole, such a dictatorship seems for the moment far from possi- bility. The chances seem to be in favor of passive or active co-operation be- tween the Socialists and thé present government, resulting in energetic financial and political reforms and a moderate, reassuring Political Fight Causes German Students To Withdraw From International Group BERLIN, Germany.—Formal with- drawal of the German student group grom the International Confederation of Students at its Brussels meeting brought to a head the entire problem of the relation of the so-called mother country to its cultural minorities in neighboring lands. The German organization had never become a member of the international ization, but had co-operated with 3§t in general matters of interest to stur dents. Now the break is complete. The Teason is political. Under the confederation student bod- fes are admitted to membership when organized on a national basis within their several lands. The German stu- dent body, known as the Deutsche Stu- dentenschaft, claims the right to nx- resent not only the students wit ‘German territory, but German- ng students within Austria and such coun- tries as Czechoslovakia, where there is & strong German minority. The con- federation denied this right and the Germans withdrew. ‘There is not the slightest doubt that’ there exists in this apparent philosoph- ical conflict a profound gpolitical dis- sention. Whereas Wi 'rn Europe largely defines nationality as a matter of personal desire, Germans under pan- Germanistic and learned leadership have been inclined to claim as “Ger- mans” ajl German-speaking, or even German Tacial, groups which are will- ing to accept Germany's cultural lead- Before the pan-Germanists made claims that all Holland and Flemish | Belgium were really part of the “Ger- man_family” during the war supported the Flemish Separatists in their strug- ge n:zth the nch-speaking Belgian alloons. “Since the war'this conception has continued. Not ‘only privaté German fx’oufle l)n‘h bntbeflu G:lrnm’x government as en active In supporting Germanism in " all states where it could be construed to exist. This applies chiefly to territories lost by the war. Through the so-called Heimatbund, German officials have endeavored to stimulate ition am the Eupen Germanism is strong numerically or which Germany fo recover. But it is notable that during the trial of the Alsatian ratists some time ago charges were made that their had been movemt supported by Ger- , indirectly traceable {o offi- not indicate exactly the amounts of money expended for cultural suj 3 since it is considered unwise to pul them and as most of that money various agencies, such u'ov.h.: in several foreign countries. ‘The refusgl of the Students’ Confed- eration to admit the right of German student organizations to include Ger- man-speaking Czechs is a symptom of :‘ ;{munn that might become impor- (Copyright, 1930.) | Desert Is to Yyielcr Prehistoric Lore | A scientific mission, headed by a French officer and M. Reygane, pro- fessor of ‘prehistoric lore at the Univer- | sity of Algiers, is to make a motor tour over the great African desert in Novem- ber for the purpose of studying its flora and fauna, the history and cus- | toms of its inhabitants. The mission has been planned in connection with the colonial exhibition which is to take place in the park of Vincennes, Paris, next year. The mission will include two members of the International In- stitute of Anthropology, a naturalist, the son of Gen. Estienne, and a cine- matograph operator. They will travel in two big cars specially constructed for the purpose, in which the original motor will be replaced by a Diesel fed with heavy oll. Among its other proj- ects the mission contemplates a visit the Algerian Sahara, where, in the mountains of Hoggar, live those veiled men of the desert, called Tuueg Prof. Reygane and his companions hope to pick up from the Hoggar and from the medieval customs of its curious inhabi- tants, so unlike other Berbers and Mus- sulmans, a great deal of their remote history, whose origin goes back further than the. memory of man. Many a prehistoric site still remains half hid- den in the sands of that mysterious country. A close study of these will ly throw a new and interest t on this small corner of the world, the via | 50 long inaccessible to explorers. In | been very poor in America, and, for me, of about four weeks into the heart of | Mary. Pioneer hmmde Organized Bryn College in 1884. m-wnm&';xmuv“ sity. Founder of Bryn Mawr Summer BY BEVERLEY NICHOLS. 8 American Ambassador I come frequently into contact with certain traveled Britons and L Americans who are continual purveyors of the trivial and irritating in international relationship. ‘They do not seem to have sensed the inevitable consequence of an existing tie of blood upon the permanent and fundamental attitude of the two people.” ‘There is every reason why this some- what somber pronouncement of Gen. Charles G. Dawes should mean more to &« in my minds eye, against which it was delivered—can see the storied roof, the long row of learn- ed, expectant faces, lit to a Holbein ra- diance by the starry candles. I can even savor the aroma of the snuff, which is one of the most charming traditions of Trinity dinners. A silver Georgian snuff box, divided into seven g:rtionl, each containing its particular and, glimmers before the Ambassador a8 he brings his fist down on the table. That is, however, that the principal yeason why his words affected me. I have lived in America, off and on, for a considerable period—have lectured in towns where nobody had the least idea who I was, and in New York have edited A magagine of which I am entirely con- vinced that few ever heard. I nave very rich, too. My house in London always seems to be full of Americans Iwh&.c names I do not know, but whom like. And T know all about these irritants and I would like to say a few words to them, whether of the English or the American variety. No decent Englishman has ever been so foolish as to object to Americans because they are Americans. know that there are quantities stories, published in cheap, glossy maga- zines on both sides of the Atlantic, in which duchesses raise icy eyebrows when Mr. Silas P. Perks from Kansas City slaps the butler on the back and says: “Oh, boy, have a bit of gum,” or words to that effect. If such an entrancing situation ever did transpire, I know at least six Eng- lish duchesses who would take on & new lease of life. ‘They would give rties for Mr. Perks and would be tterly disappointed if he did not fifi. form. They would nestle him to their aristocratic bosoms. They would tell him the secrets of their hearts, saying to themselves:' “Here, at last, is an honest man.” I can give you a personal example. ‘The other day a y American from the Middle West ri request for an interview. I asked him to come to my club to have a drink. I jneed not say which club it is, but it overlooks the Green Park in Plccadilly, and its president is Lord Ha who, as you are aware, married Princess . The American arrived. He was completely delightful. He wore no hat and carried no stick, but he made up for it all by a suit of such a radiant shade of yellow that the hall porter blinked. We got on terribly well, and 1 made a mental note to go to my own tailors and see what wou?fl happen if 1 ordered a sult of a similar shade. After he had gone several aged members of the upper house approached me and asked he who he was. They expressed disappointment that I had not intro- duced him to them in order that he might have brightened up their lives “Refreshing.” they said, ng thelr heads amiably, “most rei " and me up with a proceeded to tell me of equally inter- esting lenu which eq.hey fu Those Who Have Done Most to Promote Fifty Foremost Women Country’s Welfare Listed by Ida M. Tarbell MISS IDA M. TARBELL, DISFINGUISHED WRITER AND EDITOR, WHO HAS SELECTED THE FIFTY FOREMOST AMERICAN WOMEN. School for women in industry. Ph. D. from University of Zurich. LL. D. from four different American institutions. L. H. D. from Goucher College. Dean Virginia Gildersleeve— and good taste. A scholar of note, a sp -ker of power Dean of Barni Col- lege. Liberal and experin.enting. Opened her doors three years ago for an annual Summer school for woman workers in Hons ik Many international connec- scholars and learned societies. Mary Woolley— W!flrm roving 3 For 30 years president of Mount College. ~Acgive in all under- opportunities f education of women. Gives services to efforts to hm:::imu Smith and Yale, Itll"; Am the when Americans thl"lnhclln.dto":lv'l ¢ X Ada Comstock— Pirst full-time president-of Radcliffe College, where by tact and firmness she has steadily won concessions from Har- vard, with which Radcliffe is affiliated. As president of American Association of College Women she succeeded in unit- ing the southfrn and northern associa- tions into one body. Member of Presi- dent Hoover's Commission on Law En- forcement. Dr. Annie Jump Cannon— Astronomer, associated with Harvard College - Observatory. Has made many important observations, discovered new stars, catalogued 225,000 stellar spectra. Honorary member of Royal Astronomi- degrees from Uni- Groningen. “Most eminent of living Wwoman ONE KNOWS PERFECTLY WELL THAT HER WHOLE SOUL IS BENT UPON BEING PRESENTED. —Drawn restive. Nobody is deceived when Mrs. X of Chicago tells us that she is having six new “bowth” rooms put into her house in Grosvenor Square. Nobody is impressed when Mr. ¥ of Boston makes & fuss because the port is 1880 instead of 1870. One winces a little when a languid American debutante yawns about the boredom of having to be pre- sented at court. One knows perfectly well that her u;lhole soul Il“bent ‘upon being presented, and that if anything happened to stop her she would be so distraught that she would rush rapidly down a steep cliff into the sea. ‘When an American hostess takes a house in London she ought not to fuss about engaging an English butler, nor worry whether the wines are of the cor- rect vintage. She would be far better advised, as far as her social success is concerned, if she brought over the old colored_retainer and served %ln the hall. We adore American gs that really are American. If an English girl goes to a party and meets an_American who retalls a new plece of Broadway slang she is as ex- cited as if she had picked up a £5 note. Bhe hugs to her bosom the precious ad- jective, or whatever it may be, pro- ducing it only on rare occasions and evincing evident signs, of distress if it shows any likelihood of being into the general currency of the of the set in which she moves. for The Sunday Star by Harve Stein. American colloquialisms is completely mistaken. I was staying the other day at a week end party where there was a young American who was so terrifically English and so stupendously correct that he made me feel like a hobo. It was what Lorelel would have called a very ‘“refeened” party—that is, there were an odd royalty lor tm)é ng Am- bassador and several gaunt, Eereuu who sat round the m bles after dinner like vultures waiting for sparrows. Now I can never remember people’s names or titles. I always forget to put in “Your Excellency,” or “Ma'am,” as the case may be. As & matter of fact, I believe that it you turned to a of etiquette you would find that you use these charming and archaic ex- pressions only once, adopting the ordi- nary mode of speech after you have shown them that you know who they are. But the American—he ma'amed and ma'amed and ma’amed, smi Ing his lips over the word, exulting in the ys of courtiership. Whenever possible e walked backward, accomplishing the feat with such remarkable dexterity 1t for years in solitude. His' dinner clothes were made in Piccadilly Arcade, his shoes from 8t. James’, his hair wash from a cer- tain establishment in Dover street, His valet looked like som out of a P. G. Wodehouse novel. scientists,” Dr. Simon Flexner's opin- fon. Her studies, extending over nearly 35 years, have contributed particularly to the knowledge of the blood and its diseases. First and only woman elected to the National Academy of Science. In- telligent investigator, inspiring teacher, appreciator of good music. Dr. Susan D. Kingsbury— A stimulating teacher of social econ- omy, suggesting for others and follow- *ing herself new lines of investigation and experiment. Valuable contributions on relation of children and women to industry. Since 1915 head of the Carola Woershoffer graduate department at Bryn Mawr College. Prof. Alice Hamilton— - After medical training at the Univer- sitv of Leipzig, Johns Hopkins, Chicago and at the Pasteur Institute, Paris, and 12 years’ practical work in bacteriology, she specialized in occupational diseases. Leading authority on industrial poisons. For 12 years member of the faculty of Harvard Medical School in the Depart- ment of Industrial Medicine. Member of League of Nations Health Committee. Mary McLeod Bethune— Born of. negro parents, slaves. Found- er in 1900 of Bethune-Cookman Insti- tute. for Colored Boys and Girls at Daytona, Fla., now enrolling some 250 students. Established a-home for de- that I am convinced he had practiced | bl mme Row, his waistcoats came from |ing (Continued on Fourth Page.) Ambassadors of Irritation Americans Who Try to Be British and Britons Who Try to Ape Americans Are Criticized. crown it all, he had a bulldog of the most repulsive English variety. I must add, however, that this dog had a fit, probably out of disgust. Now there are lots of young Ameri- cans like that, especially at our uni- versities, and it is they who are the “frritants” to whom Gen. Dawes re- ferred—not the bright, breezy, square- shouldered young things who saunter down Plccadilly making pointed re- marks about the smallness of bulld- ‘e actually like to be criticized by Americans about our drawbacks.' I don’t know why. I think it is because it gives us a certain feeling of pride to think. that we are able to live in such damnable discomfort. Henry Ford once expressed to me, in general terms, the suggestion that the reason why the English had formed an em- pire was becausé they were so mis- erable at home. We need not argue about that now. We are not exactly miserable. = But we do like, some- times, to imagine that we are. If an American complains that the sun_ has not shone all Spring the E‘l;lsll.!hmln will usually beam at him and say with marked delight: “Ah— but you should have been here last year! 1t rained solidly for 10 weeks.” We, love to see Americans shiver when' they walk into an icy dining room. We love to see their look of blank amazement when the first Au- tumn fogs stretch their menacing fin- across the Thames. We love to see them puzzled by our ridiculously cumbersome coinage system. We like to see them baffled by the maze of our streets—streets that twist and curl in drunken disorder, with houses num- bered at random. All these things, in some subtle sense, give us pleasure, not because we wish Americans to be un- comfortable, but because we love to see them finding out that the legends they learned about our country at school are really true. I shall probably be violently crit- icized and misunderstdod for the fore- going remarks, However, if any reader thinks that I am trying to be superior at the expense of the Americans, it is the reader’s fault. I had better quickly draw a picture of what I consider to be an English “frritant” in order to balance things. ‘There are lots of young Englishmen, mostly in business in New York, who must, in my humble opinion, infuriate the Americans in exactly . the same manner as their American prototypes infuriate us. They are always running down England. They speak with an absurd intonation which they evidently imagine to be American. They try to live on the top floors of the highest skyscrapers and their rooms are very modern, with horrid, sharp’ cactus plants in the corners. There is never any tea in their cupboards and their mail never contains the weekly edition of “the Times.” To listen to them you would think that the British Empire book | was a sort of dowdy club of no par- ticular significance. I remember going out for an evening in New York with a young Englishman who -had been terribly bitten. by the American bug. He used to deliver ex- tremely slighting speeches about the British Empire, comparing Westminster Abbey, to its great disadvanl , with the Woolworth Building, and shudder- ing at the thought of going back to his native country, where the paramount lessings of central heating and ice water did not obtain. These denuncia- tions were always delivered in a plerc- American accent—-at least he imag- ined that it was American. We got into a taxi. I was about to tell the taxi driver where to go, when ug Be dug me and said: “Hore, let me do | ter. PRESIDENCY MAY HINGE ON NOVEMBER ELECTIONS Demagratic Control of Congress Would Stir Exciting Interest Due to Prece- dents of Last 40 Years. BY MARK SULLIVAN. N LOOKING upon the present tides and currents of national politics a surprising fact is the apparent lack of interest in the campaign for con- trol of Congress. What is being determined is whether the Republicans after the November election con- tinue to control Congress. To put it the other way around, what is being deter- mined is whether the Democrats will succeed in their attempt to take cor=rol of Congress away from the Republicans. Party control of Congress, especially control of Congress by a party different from the one in control of the White House, is an extremely portentous mat- That there is little interest in the possibility now is very apparent; but if it should turn out on the morning of | the 5th of November next that the | Democrats had won control of Congress or even of one chamber of Congress, the event would be the subject of very ex- clamatory headlines. National politics would become very exciting indeed. Instantly, discussion would seethe. What will the Democrats do with their power? Will they revise the . tariff downward? If so, will President Hoover veto their action? To turn to another series of specula- tions that would boil through Novem- ber if the Democrats should win, would it follow that the Democrats would win the presidential election two years later? Whom would they nominate? Ex-Governor Smith? Gov. Franklin Roosevelt? Ex-Governor Byrd of Vir- ginia? Would the Republicans re- nominate Mr. Hoover? Would the Dem- ocratic victory be an augury of imme- diate restoration of good times? Or of more prolonged suspense? All these would blaze .through the press if the headlines of Wednesday, November 5, should proclaim Democratic control of the House. Rarity of Condition. Such a condition, control of Congress (or of one chamber of Congress) by the party antagonistic to that of the Pres- ident, has existed on only three occa- slons during the past 40 years. To reduce the condition to the simplest terms we may confine our considera- tion to cases in which the party not in power in the White House controls_one chamber of Congress, the House. It is the House, if anything, that the Demo- crats have a chance to win in the com- ing election. Hardly anybody regards it as possible for the Democrats to win control of the Senate. Control of the House by the party opposed to the President has occurred three times since 1890. In 1894 the Democrats were in control of the presi- dency under Cleveland and in the No- vember elections of that {ur the Re- publicans won control of the House. Seventeen years later, ublicans were in control of the presi- ency under Taft and in the November elections of that year the Democrats won control of the House. Eight years later, in 1918, the Democrats were in control of the presidency under Wilson and the Repub won control ef the House. By MWWiu‘:cmug; ny other Ing Mxem er the ‘winning f control of the House by the party antagonistic to the President has been followed two years later by the same party winning con- wrol of the presidency. To illustrate what is here stating it in terms of the present, it the Derr:c:}l‘fl !ho\lll: 'lin ‘ti’l’n fl(\)f;ga House e coming elections - vember 4, it would follow—assuming that the precedents are sound—that the Democrats two_years later, in 1932, would oust Mr. Hoover and the Repub- licans from the White House and would elect a Democratic President. That potential outcome, that possible deduction from Democratic victory in November, is one of several reasons for greater interest in this cam than seems actually to exist. The pl phy or theory underlying this assumption is that Democratic victory this Fall would be the beginning of & tide and that by 1932 the tide would sweep up to and around the White House. In McKinley's Case. It has worked that way on the three occasions_since 1890 mentioned above. In 1894 the Republicans won control of the House, and then in the presidential election of 1896 elected their cdndidate for President, McKinley. In 1910 the Democrats won control of the House, and two years later in the presidential election unseated Taft and placed their own man, Woodrow Wilson, in the White House. In 1918 the Republicans won control of the House, and two years later, in the presidential elections of 1920, displaced President Wilson with a Republican President, Harding. From this sequence it is argued that there is a rule, a law of politics, to the effect that the winning of control of the House by the party not in power in the presidency means that two years later the party having the presidency will be ousted.” To state this rule—if it is & rule—in terms of the present and immediate future: If the Democrats should win control of the House this November, it would immediately be as- sumed that in 1932 President Hoover (or whoever else the Republican can- didate might be) would be unseated and that a Democratic President would enter the White House. This assumption, or prediction, or de- duction from precedents—whatever one chooses to call it—would resound very noisily in the headlines and political discussions immediately after the 4th of November next, if it should happen that the Democrats should end this cam- paign by winning control of the House. Limit to Precedents. All the precedents for 40 years and most of the precedents for a much longer period argue what is here sug- gested, namely, thet if the Democrats should win control of the House in No- vember they would thereafter, two years later, in 1932, win the presidency. And yet, convincing though the precedents may be, if we argue from precedent alone, there is something unconvincing about the whole idea. In at least two of the precedents mentioned above there were additional factors which alone would have been enough to account for the election of a Republican in 1896 and of a Democrat in 1912. In 1894, when the Republi made you.” Whereupon he leaned forward and said, in piercing tones, something like this: “Say, boy, hike this bus ‘round the neighborhood o' Sutton place, and we'll tell you where to get off.’ This ultimatum was delivered about three times, and with each rep- etition the taxi driver appeared more perplexed. Eventually I leaned for- ward and said, with an exquisite Ox- ford accent. We wish to go to ihe east end of Sutton place, if you please.” Whereupon & light burst over the taxi driver’s face and he drove us there. It all comes down to your- self! you, honor the flag under which you - | should.win in 1910, the Re- | ber 5 e meant by their start by winning control of the House, we were in the midst of rbb- ably the most cyclonic ic and deepest business dep! this coun- e enough to both for the Republicans winning con- trol of the House in 1894 and for their winning the presidency in addition, there was another conditian. Not only did the Democrats suffer from the fact of a panic and a de| further than that, control of Dem- ocratic party, through a fight within the party, was won away from the con- servative and orthodox Democrats by ‘William Jennings Bryon advocating the free coinage of silver. That fact, the cleavage within the Democratic party, was almost enough to account for the mai by which they lost the presi- dency in 1896. Even so, the margin by which the Democrats lost and the Re- publicans won the presidency in 1896 was very small—50,000 votes proper distributed throughout the States would have resulted in the election of Bryan. Victory Follows Control. ‘To consider the next of the prece- dents, the Democrats in 1910 won' con- trol of the House and then two years in that 1912 election for the presidency the Republican party was it in two. The smaller wing of the licans remained under the then it Taft, while she larger wing went off under the leadership of Roosevelt to compose the Progressive party. Can any one say that if there had not been that split in the Republican the Democrats would have elect ‘Wilson in 19122 To put it in broader terms applicable to the present, can apy one say with confidence that the winning of control of the House hz‘the Repub= licans in 1910 was certain to be fol- lowed in 1912 by their winning the presidency? ‘The net of all this is: they would then unseat President Hoover and elect a President of their own party in 1932. But in spite of the prwm?u l,a:u lg ?mdmom whi'gl: suggest caution about accepting deduction from precedent. It is enough to say, however, that the deduction ‘would be. widely ted if the morn- ing papers of November 5 next should record the winning of control of House by the Democrats. be a very general assumption that the country was headed straight for & Democratic President in 1932. Because of what has already been de- scribed there is another—what shall we , or notion? ‘The notion is that if the control of the House Novem= next the Republicans would not then renominate Mr. Hoover. theory is directly related to the former one. The argument House next that the country is dissatisfied ition cious. However convincing may be on the larger point above there is no aggregation of prece- dents to suggest that My. Hoover would be denied a renomination in 1982, Third Term Question, It is true that in the first it described above President Cleveland, after his party lost control of the House, was not renominated, but that was for the very good reason that Mr. Cleve- 1and had already served two terras. In the second precedent, described above, Republican President Taft saw his lose control of the House in 1910, nevertheless was himself renominated in 1912. (Though the renomination did him little good, becausc the bulk of his party went off to follow Roosevelt.) In the third of the three precedents since 1890 President Wilson in 1918 saw his party lose control of the House and was not himself renominated in 1920, but, again, as in the case of Cleveland, this was for the very good reason that Wil son had already served two terms, and also was in extremely and obvious bad heaith. Any one who remembers the conditions of 1920 knows that if terms and if he had not suffered his breakdown in_ health he would have been renominated by the Democrats. Consequently there is nothing in the precedents to suggest that if the Repub- licans' should lose control of the House in November they would then deny re- nomination to Mr. Hoover in 1932. On the contrary, the piecedents, as far as they suggest anything, point the other way. Common sense, the average man's un- derstanding of how other average men act, is enough to suggest that even if the Republicans should lose control of the Houce in November, nevertheless Mr. Hoover would T ted in 1932. The argument from common sense has been put in words attri’ uted to that master exponent of common Calvih Coolidge. ‘This story, which purports to quote Mr. Cool ), may or may not be true. It may one of those stories that are like artists® drawings—sometimes even more true to life than a photograph. The story, in short, attributes to Mr. Coolidge the kind of practical wisdom that every- body knows Mr. Coolidge has. With this explanation, the story runs to the effect that a distinguished Senator spoke to Mr. Cool about the possibility of his (Mr. Coolidge) being nominated the Republicans in 1932, the story, Mr. Coolidge replied that Republican nominee —if tions are such that the Democrats sre extremely likely to win—in that event the nomination. Certainty of Nomination. The same idea has been put into dif- ferent words by another adept in com: pact phraseology, who shall be name. less here: “If the blican nomina. tion in 1932 is wi anything, Mr. Hoover deserves it; if it is not Speak with the voice God gave |his were born, and don't try to conceal the fact that you hnnuu;ylhlnk all other countries but your own ribs he won't understand | really like 4 W There{zn. laugh at them. runs thus: If. the nobody other than *7r, Hoover will want - later, in 1912, won the presidency. But . Mr. Wilson had not already served two -