Evening Star Newspaper, January 23, 1927, Page 47

- EDITORIAL SECTION EDITORIAL PAGE NATIONAL PROBLEMS SPECIAL FEATU RES The Sunday Star Part 2—12 Pages ANTI-FOREIGN MOVEMENT IN CHINA IS HELD SERIOUS Believed Most Dangerous Situation Since Boxer Uprising—Many Americans Now in Danger Zone. BY FREDERIC W1 WILE. T is because of the e: rdinar; gravity of the anti-foreign move. ment in south and centra® China that John V. A. MacMurray American Minister at Peking, has been ordered to remain at his pos and not at this time return to Amer ica. At Washington the movement is _considered far and away the most menacing of the kind since the san guinary Boxer outbreaks in 1900. The lives “of 12,000 mericans—men, women and children—and long-in trenched husiness interests, rept t ing many millions of dollars are at stake, How far the drive against our peo ple, and foreigners in general, wiil proceed befora it is checked be estimated at this hour. It.is with & view to even graver emergencies yet 10 come that Secretary Kellogg wants the capable young American envoy Peking to stay on guard instead coming home, as Mr. MacMurray wa in the act of doing, to confer with President Coolidge on chaotic China Troops Well Trained. It is the apparently irresistible sweep of the Kuo-min-tang, or South China Cantonese forces marshaled by Chang-Kai-Shek, that mainly has pro- duced the present alarming situation. These are the elements, military and civilian, that call themselves the “na tionlist” host of China, bent upon ridding the country of every vestige of foreign influence or control. Many of their military units are splendidly equipped. They have cavalry troops and a radio communications service that are up to the minute. The nationalist terror is anti-Brit- ish in origin, but long since became generally anti-foreign in scope. Be- { tween Chinese Canton. the pivot of the drive, and British Hongkong there has long been the bitterest of feuds. The movement now is fed and fanned by an army of agitators who are preaching the doctrine that China's woes are exclusively of foreign man- * ufacture. Thus they cail for ruthless + destruction of the “unequal treaties” between China and the powers, de- mand the abolition of extra-territorial legal systems, insist upon tariff free- dom and in every respect advocate the expulsion, bag and baggage, of the “foreign devil” and all his works. If this can only be achieved by fire and sword, there is imminent peril that foreign lives and property will be the victims. * Christians Are Attacked. Christian missionaries come in for particular attack. They are held re- sponsible, along with foreign of endless troubles. The United States 1§ the principal “missionary power” in, China. To that extent the anti-for- ‘ elgn sentiment is chiefly anti-Ameri- can. In Shanghai, where there are 4,000 or 5,000 Americans, the interests of the United States are mainly com- mercial in character. But at*Foo- chow, Amoy and, Hankow (“the Chi- nnot | at | diplo- | macy and foreign trade, for China's | cago of China”) and various interor points, the American communities are |largely made up of missionaries and their families, The Coolidge administration's con | cern at this hour is aroused to a large lextent by the danger that the Can tonese nationalist orive may reach Shanghai, with direct menace to the vast Ame n life and property inter- ests centered there. The Cantonese | military forces long have marked that | great international port, a metropolis |of 2,000,000, with extensive foreign settiements as their prize objective. Communists Active. Communist activities are notoriously responsible for much of the new anti-foreign fury in China | The Canton government employs | Soviet advisers, while innumerable | young Chinese “Nationalist” lead ers have become inoculated with |the virus of bolshevism. Part of | the Nationalist plan of campaign is to send professional agitators along | with the advancing Cantonese troops. These soap:box artists preach in in- flammatory ' language the gospel that the root cause of all China’s trials and tribulations is the exploiting for eigner. There are other agitators whose task it i to unionize the hordes of Chinese coolie labor of all Kinds. There is a special effort to incite and organize house servants, upon whom China’s thousands of foreign residents so0 largely depend in their homes and businesses. Servants in British em ploy have been singled out for at- tention. A British resident, for in- stance, finds it impossible to get a Chinese to build his fires, do his cook ing, or even sell him the necessities of ife in a shop. No Chinese “rick- shaw” man will transport a_Britisher. Gradually this sort of thing has spread to other foreigners, and, on account of similarity of language, Americans have come to suffer almost as griev- ously as British. Peking Rule Weak. The grand central objective of the Cantonese Nationalists, of course, is the achievement of power at Peking and the establishment of their sway over all that the world today knows as China. At Peking, at the moment, only the vestige of a “‘Chinese govern- ment’ exists. If the Cantonese forces were to advance deeply into the north, Peking eventually might fall easy prey to them. The ancient capital is ruled by whichever tu-chun (war lord) hap- pens to command in the Province of | Chih-li, but its authority is very cir- | cumseribed. | The United States continues to deal | with no other Chinese government | than the shadow regime which pre- tends to be in power at Peking. Our policy is to recognize no movement that makes for the disintegration of China. But how long this attitude can be maintained, in the presence of kaleidoscopic events now transpiring, remains to be seen. (Copyright. 1927 | Russian MILLIONS SPENT ANNUALLY TO PRESERVE WORKERS’ HEALTH IS Rt Sl PN ] Jncreased Efficiency, Reduced Labor Turnover and Smaller Compensation for Accidents Shown 'hy Department of Labor Figures. BY HARDEN COLFAX. A story of millions of dollars spent annually by American industries to preserve the health of their employes, with resulting increased efficiency, re. duced Jabor turnover and smaller com- pensation payments for minor acci- dents, is found in figures made avail- able last week at the Department of Labor. The question of philanthropy may ter into some of this work, that of ocial service” . figures largely in much of it, but, after all, industry has found that it iz sound business 1o see to it that the health of its em- ployes is maintained. Extended to Families. Not only are emploves themselves given the benefits of free medical and surgical treatment in hundreds of in stances, but in many cases company health service is extended to families of workers, for & man whose mind is Weighed down by worry over iliness at home- not only i8 an inefficient em ploye, but frequenily may become a menace to hims:lf and to others through thoughtless handling of ma chinery. “Prevention is better than cure” has been adopted as a slogan by many corporations. A study of medical service for in “dustrial employes has just been com- pleted by the Bureau of Labor Statis- ties, and it 1s made public, together with comparisons with a similar study by the same agency 10 vears ago. Of 450 corporations included in the sur- vey, 430 were found to be carr & personnel work of this na and of these 407 are listad in the report as providing medical service among nearly 2,000,000 emplnves Demonst ing the has been made in the the quality of the se the fact that of the cluded in the 1914 some sort of prov of employes only vond firstaid eq present study panies which pr had one or more only 34 had the 1 ment. The extent to which this type of * service is being carried is illustrated by the case of one corporation operat ing two great plants and employving approximately 17,000 workers, whicl extends free medical and surgical at tention for all purposes to its em ployes and members of their families, and retains 28 physicians and sur. geons, 60 purses and 60 other attend ants, and which last year expended $708,000 for ehis work. Classcs of Malnutrition. ivance which last decade in ice rendered is plants in as h treatment anyvthing be. while in the 407 com medical service tment rooms and mited first-aid equip- Many corporetions now are conduct. ing physical examinations of appli- ng on | ving | ther require emploves to undergo a physical examination at least once a year. And a remarkable part of these | data is that this close supervision of the health of workers is not confined to those whose occupations are haz. lardous. Business apparently has learned its lesson that a m; | efcient e ] health. Among the methods of co v | heaith work followed by som:':;‘rj;:lr:» | | tions is that of a daily check-up by | means of a spot map showing cases of sickness in the different departments. | A large number of cases of headache in any single department causes ac- tion to remedy ventilation conditions | or resurvey the lighting system. In | | the event of contagious diseases and | worker must possess good |in cases of tonsillitis, grip and other | | acute maladies, preventive treatment |is given workers closely | with such cases. e | The records disclose that in some |cases where general medical treat |ment is provided, a small fee fs charged all employes monthly to help defray the expense, but in the ma. | jority of cases the entire expense is borne by the corporation, even when | medical service is extended to mem.| | bers of the families of the employes. | Severe Penalties Imposed. I In order to preserve the health of workers many corporations are en. | forcing rigid regulations. For in-| |stance, severe penalties are imposed | | by some companies upon workers who | Ifail to report to the medical center cases of slight cuts or who attempt to |remove from their own eyes or from | the eyes of fellow workers foreign ob- ! jects ‘which may lodge there. | Group insurance of employes with |the premiums paid by the employers {has more than doubled in the last five years in the United States, but the jconstructive work along health lines that is attested by the scores of hos- i pitals and the hundreds of physicians, {including specialists, and nurses main. :\alnnd by American industry are less well known factors in a movement jwhich has reached great proportions. ;Hungary a Monarci;y ! But Lacks a Ruler | | Are some Hungarian elements plan. | ning to bring the Hapsburgs back? ! Hungary is now a monarchy without |a king. Admiral Nicholas Horthy is |regent, but the presence of a regent |logically means a temporary condi- tion while awaiting an opportune time to place a king on the throne. | There are rumors that behind the formation of a house of peers em- powered to elect a regent is the in- eants for employment, not so much for | tentfon to pick a Hapsburg living in the purpose of rejecting those suffer- | Hungary to succeed Horthy, prelim- ing from minor physical ailments, but | inary to pjacing another Hapsburg on . with the object of discovering such |the, thron®, Count Albert Apponyi troubles and correcting them through |supports Prince Otto, son of the late systematic treatment if the applicant be placed on the pay roll. Some com panies have classes of malnutrition stematically feed such employes | and s under proper supervision It was found in this survey that a number of American corporations not only require entrance examinations by appllcants for employment, but fuzs, | King Charles, for the throne and op- | poses the creation of a house of peers, The legitimists are not quite so op- timistic since Admiral Horthy s | showing no inclination to place Otto | at least on the throne. However, most Hungariane are for standing pat whila there is much reconstruction work 1o be dane, WASHINGTON, 193 €., SUNDAY MORNING, .y JANUARY Ap 99 23, THE WAY THE WORLD IS GOING What Is Happening in China—The Appearance of a Sort of Government in the World. HERE is history being made most abundantly at the present time? One may doubt whether any one of the events of the last 12 months, either in America or in Europe, will figure ver conspicuously in the histories of the future. Political futilities and a slow economic contrac- tion in Great Britain, phases in the process of superabundance in America, government. by rhetoric and outrage in Italy, the sluggish recognition at Geneva that Germany is, after all, in the middle of Europe, and the arrest of the franc at the very moment when its plunge seemed definite—these and the steady progres- slve reconstruction of a modern-spirited trad- ing and manufacturing life upon the wide foundations of Russia mark no turning point “in the course of human affalrs. ‘All these things are, so to speak, merely Fate carrying on. But when we look to China there seems to be something more than carrying on in prog ress. There seems to be something new there, something which has—at any rate so far as the Western observer is concerned—only be- come credible and important in the last 8 or 10 months. It is a change in the rhythm. It is the clear onset of a new phase of a new China, like nothing the world has ever seen before; a challenge, a promise to all mankind. s Let us try to realize In the most general terms the significance of this new movement in China. Tt is not an easy thing to do. Our world is densely ignorant of things Chinese. At school few of us learn anything of the slight- est importance about China except that it had a population so immense that you could kill Chinamen by the hundied and they scarcely noticed it, that they ate rice, rats and puppies, and they possessed two long rivers that seri ously challenged the records of the Nile and the Mississippi. We learned less formally that Chinamen of all ages wore highly decorative skirts and flew kites, whereas we knew perfectly well that the only proper amusement for gen- tlemen is- hitting expensive little balls about, golf links until they are lost, and that the only proper wear for a dominant race is chromatic pull-overs and highly illuminated plus fours. Moreover, we were given to understand that the Chinese of all ages and sexes preferred work to any other form of enjoyment and found an almost infantile pleasure in living exactly on the margin of subsistence. And they were cruel, very cruel. Ingenious in a way. Their artistic productions amused us very greatly; they were %0 unlike the great masters, Victorian art and British Academy BY H. G. WELLS. as satisfled with the pre-eminence of our civilza- tlon and the worthlessness of theirs as were the Chinese about their own perfections a hun dred years ago. But since then the Chinese have suffered blow after hlow and humiliation after humiliation until the need of learning and progress has been forced upon them. Students came from China to America Europe and come in increasing q Never a Western student, except for some ec. centrie, goes to China. Traders go, the Euro- pean governments send battleships to back up their traders, and missionaries are dispatched by various denominations to advise the Chinese of the chief sorts of salvation practiced among us and available for their use. The traders send back news with an eye to their privileges and the missionaries with an eye to their pay master A bright young man of position at Oxford or Harvard would as soon think of leaving his ball games and his rags and all the pleasant procedures that lead to pre-eminence as lawyer and legislator in our world, for two or three vears of study in China, as get into a shell and he shot off to the moon. So that the Chinese may even have crept ahead of us in breadth of outlook during the past few years. Many of them now seem to know most of what we know, and to know also quite a lot about their own country. If one wants to know about China nowadays it is best to ask a Chinaman. AT ok And now with a sense of surprise we find ourselves confronted by a modern self-conscious Chinese nationality, consolidating its power very rapidly and demanding to speak on equal terms with the American and European. A living Chinese nation has appeared in the world. Perhaps the most striking thing about the present Chinese situation is this, that it is not gpparently the work of any single man; the consolidation and reconstruction of China that has made such rapid progress in the last 12 months has not gone on under the direction of some strong-jowled hero of the Diaz or Mus- solini type. When the long-tottering Manchu dynasty fell and China became a republic, and fell into all the violent diversions and dissen- sions inevitable after so extreme a change of regime, we Westerners with our antiquated ideas looked at once for the strong man who has either to foist a new dynasty on China or restore and bolster up the old. Just as we looked for a Napoleon to emerge in Russia. That marked how far the Western intelligence had got in these matters. And just as the Western powers of Europe, and queer and incomprehensible to them, so they have wasted their prestige and resources upon this or that Chinese brigand and general, who was to play the role of Diaz in Mexico and make China safe for the European investor. * ok kX uch “hero” has emerged either in Rus or China. It marks a new age. The days of great adventures seem to be past in any country larger than Italy, and even in Italy it is possible to regard Mussolini less as a leader than as the rather animated effigy of a juvenile insurrection. What has happened in these wider, greater lands is something much more semarkable, something new in history, a phe nomenon that calls for our most strenuous at tention—namely, government, effective govern. ment, competent military control and a con sistent, steady, successful policy by an or ganized association. This Koumintang in China, in so far as it is an organized associa tion, is curiously parallel to the Communist party which, standing behind the quasi-parlia- mentary soviets, restrained such dangerous ad venturers as Zingvieff and defended its frontiers against incessant foreign aggression for nine long years. We shall be extraordinarily foolish if we do not attempt to realize the significance of this novel method of controlling government which has broken out over two of the greatest politi- cal areas of the globe. We have now two gov- ernments through organized association; gov- ernments which are neither limited monarchies, dictatorships, nor parliamentary republics in the American and French models; one in Rus- sia and now another over the larger half of China, which bid fair to spread over the entire breadth of Asia until they are in complete contact. When I say that the Communist party and the Koumintang are similar, 1 mean only in so far as regards organization. They have pro found differences in origin and aim and profes- sion, and to those I will give a word later. But first I want to point out the complete novelty of their method. Some 20 years or more ago 1 wrote a fan- tastic speculation about government -called “A Modern Utopia,” in which I supposed all administrative and legislative functions to be monopolized by an organization called the Samurai, which any one could join by passing certain fairly exacting tests and obeying the rules of an austere, disinterested and respon- sible life. One was free to leave the organiza- tion’and drop power and responsibility when s | made a persistent effort | and then held public hearings on this | come a serious obstacle instead of an word they knew nothing. and were content. pictures. Of beauty in the proper sense of the So furnished forth upon this matter of China, our minds rested Right up to the present time we have been ought to have scrapped away money in supporting following out dreary old foreign. policies they an enormous amount against the nascent new thing in Russia, ugly one chose. There there were 10 years ago, muckered of wargear and “white hopes” crazy were no great nor elections The organization ran the world heroes and leaders and no representatives nor parliaments Any one who chose to face the (Continued on Eleventh Page) TO RAILWAY Chamber of BY JOHN W. O'LEARY. President of the U. S. Chamber of Commerce. The time has coe to remove the obstacles that prevent further prog- ress in railroad consolidation. Tt i now seven years since Congress, in the transportation act, said to the In- terstate Commerce Commission, in substance: “We authorize you to permit all of the railroads in the country to con- solidate into a few large systems. Plan this work in the public interest. Preserve competition. Maintain ex- isting routes and chanmels of trade and commerce. Develop consolidated systems that will be as nearly as pos- sibls equal in strength and in earn- ing power.” Fomgress adopted this policy In 1920. Since then the commission has o prepare the comprehensive plan called for by the act. It first mapped out a tenta- tive plan for railroad consolidations all parts of the country, at D representatives of the rafl- roads, the shippers and the genera) public had full opportunity to express their views. . : These hearings have built up on a comparable basis a record of facts that will be of the greatest assistance to the commission when it undertakes to pass upon future applications for per- mission to consolidate. Chief Purpose Accomplished. Thus the commission has already accomplished the chief purpose that Congress had in view when it adopt- ed the provision of the act requiring a comprehensive plan—it has studied the problem from a national viewpoint and has defined standards by which to measure any proposal for railroad consolidation that the railroads may make. The commission is now urging Congress to repeal the plan provision of the act because it has really be- aid to consolidation. In considering this question it should he kept in mind that consoli- dation is the natural progress by which every great railroad in this country has developed during the past 80 ydars. The New York Central il lustrates this statement. In 1831 & railroad was opened from Albany to Schenectady, 16 miles. A few years later others were built from Schenec- tady to Utica, Utica to Syracuse, Sy- racuse to Auburn, and so on. In 1842 it was, indeed, possible for a passen. ger to travel from Albany to Buffalo | by rail, but he had to buy tickets from seven different railroads and change cars six times during the trip. In 1853 these seven railroads and three other short lines were _consolidated into the original New York Central Rallroad. The Pennsylvania system, the Santa Fe, the Southern, the Illinofs Central and many others have also grown by consolidation, until today 23 of these great systems control groups of rail- roads that in the aggregate perform 85 per cent of the total railroad serv- ice of the country. Advantage to Public. The advantages to the public that may be expected from a further sys- tematic grouping of the railroads are those which have in lavge part been REMOVAL OF ALL OBSTACLES MERGER URGED Advantages of Consolidation to Public Pointed Out by President O’Leary of United States Commerce, regulation, economies in construction, operation, maintenance and account- ing: improved car service and routing of traffic and preservation of competi- tion in service. There is now pending in Congress a bill—the Parker-Fess bill—that pro- poses to remove some of the existing obstacles to railroad consolidation. It repeals the plan provision of the transportation act. It makes every form of railroad unification—merger, lease and stock control, as well as technical consolidation — subject to Federal regulation. It creates the corporate machinery needed to effect a consolidation after it has been ap- proved by the commission. It makes adequate provision for adjusting the claims of dissenting minority stock- holders. And it gives the commission express authority to disapprove any proposed consolidation that does not include a particular road which ought, in the public interest, to be included. It is very desirable that Congress should pass this bill during the pres- ent session in order to assure to the public effective and reasonable rail- road transportation. (Copyright. 1927.) Can You BY DREW PEARSON. Newpaper men who were sleuthing around the War Department a few days ago, trying to find out the num- ber of troops leaving for the Mexi- can border, are now looking up Mex- ican arbitration laws. There is to be no war with Mexico, and the pe- troleum controve has boiled down to either arbitration or a legal sStrug gle in the Mexican courts, with a fair chance of American companies comin;: out on top. Nicaragua also has sub- sided, with Admiral Latimer sitting | on the 1id and preventing the Liberals ifrfln\ receiving arms, food or mes: sages. | _Talk of arbitration has heen_pro- miscuous during the week, but, aside from relieving the tension between the two countries, arbitration is still hazy. In the first place no one agrees {on what should be arbitrated and how. The two countries have agreed on arbitration only in principle. Cannot Arbitrate Whole Question. President Calles has, indicated that, | although he would be glad to arbi- trate the amount of damage and com- pensation to American property, he cannot arbitrate the whole question Say “No™? BY BRUCE BARTON INCOLN said a wonder- fully wise thing one day. “l have talked with great men,” he said, | cannot see wherein they di from others. Too many of us have a di torted notion of great me see them only on their success- ful side and imagine that they have no other. As a matter of fact, the great man is precisely like oursel a mixture of suc- cess and failure, of joy and deep depression. And very often if we would study him upon the side of his failure, we might learn more useful | No greater genius existed in his generation than Michela lo. With such magnificent abilities he should have been a happy man; yet he was of all men most miserable. His letters abound in melancholy laments. What was the secret of his misery? Failure to apply him- self? From boyheod into old age he worked incessantly. Extravagance? He denied i ordinary com- forts, to say nothing of the luxu- of Ii his tragedy lay within If—partly in pessimistic temperament inherited from h father, but chiefly in th weakness—he never h the iritual courage to say “No!” Before he had well begun one work he allowed his patrons to force other commissions upon him. He undertook too many obtained by many of the existing sys- tems—i. e., development of more un} formly strong and stable railroad svs- tems; simplified and jmproved rate things. And as a result, in agony of spirit over promi: (Copyris] unfilled, overwork begun and left half done, he passed his mi: ‘able days. Modern society is in a conspir- acy to ruin men as Michelangelo ruined. It comes with a thousand conflicting claims. chairman of this,” it asks; or “Go on this committee”; or “Leave what you are doing and tackle this new job. And no man accomplishes anything really worth while un- less he learns early to harden his will and to utter that little word ‘“no. “How did you come to dis- cover the law of gravitation?” a pretty woman asked Sir lIsaac Newton. By constantly thinking about madam,” the great man re- plied. Newton might have served on a hundred committes he might ave invented a patent churn; he might have made some money in the stock market in those years when he was ‘“con- stantly thinking” about gravita- tion. But he held himself firm to his single purpose, and did the great thing, resolutely re- fusing the thousand tempting diversions. It's a curious fact that most children learning to talk can say “no” long before they can utter the syllable ‘“yes.” Yet men find it so easy to say yes and the secret of It ruined Michel-| many failures. nability to angelo—that fatal y “no!” And it wi man who dot 0 resolutely on guard against 1927.) PETROLEUM DISPUTE DOWN TO ARBITRATION OR COURTS American Companies Stand Fair Chance of Coming Out on Top—U. S. and Mexico Agree on Settle- ment in Principle Onl |of whether or not Mexico has the rjght to pass legislation confiscating American oil property Incidentally, the United States is not anxious for Mexico to arbitrate her right to pass laws, because this might establish a precedent, giving Japan and other nations a chance to challenge our right to pass laws limit- ing their immigration into this coun try. arbitrating anything with the United States because in four out, of five a; bitration cases between the two coun- tries Mexico has always received the little end of the decision. In the one case, when the decision |favored Mexico, the United States re- fused to accept it. This case was the Chamizal arbitration convention of 1910 to decide the nationality of a large island named Chamizal, in the Rio Grande River near El Paso, which | has transferred from country to coun- In 1911 Eugene La Fleur, Canadian umpire of the commission, decided that the original route of the Rio Grande should be retraced and Cham izal awarded to the country favored by the river's early course, probably Mexico. The United States objected, on the ground that is was impossible to trace the river's early course. As a result the residents of Chamizal re- main today technically without flag or country, although the city of El Paso endeavors to collect taxes from them. Hague Tribunal Favors U. S. The only dispute between the United States and Mexico ever taken to The Hague tribunal was deécided against Mexico. It concerned the “‘pious fund of the Californias,” a trust fund started by the Jesuits in version of the California Indians. This fund was held by Mexico, and after the annexation of California to the United States in 1848 Mexico re- fused to pay any part of it to the Catholic Church of California. After more than half a century of contro- versy the issue went before The Hague tribunal in 1902, where it was decided that Mexico must pay the ac- crued interest, amounting to $1,420, 682.67, and $43,050.90 every year there- after in perpetuity The claims convantion of 1869, by which the two countries settled the claims of their respective citizens as a result of border razids, also went against Mexico, American citizens re- ceiving $4,125,622 and the Mexicans getting $150,498.41. Charles Beecher Warren, former Ambassador to Mexico, who drew up the claims convention of 1923, has ad- vised President Coolidgé to use this commission, now functioning in Wash- ington, to arbitrate the present pe- troleum dispute. The President is re- ported to have the suggestion under consideration. ~ Plan Court Action. Meanwhile Mexico is taking steps to bring the question into her own courts. There are three reasons for believing thas the outcome of this legal contest will be favorable to American companies. First, the ques- tion of confiscation has been up five times before the Mexican Supreme Court and eech time it was decided that the Mexican government could not confiscate American property ac- quired before 1917, Second, ceasing of work by the American companies would throw thousands out of work and precipi revolution. Finally, Mexico not be able to borrow mnfi if the imsue is decided against Mexico is naturally skeptical about | try by changes in the river's course. | the seventeenh century for the con- | BY FRANK H. SIMONDS ANY signs combine to give the impression that the political situation in France is be. coming unstable. The fall of the Poincare cabinet in few weeks is at least possi bility. And back of this lies* the equally good chance that there will he a new Briand cabinet or a combina- tion in which M and will direct foreign affairs under the nominal leadership of some one like Sarraut. At the bottom of the present unrest lies the fact that M. Poincare depends for his majority upon a Chamber of Deputies which is very strongly op- posed to the former President of the irepublic. The present chamber was | chosen in 1924 in the great political revolt against Poincare after the Ruhr oceupation. It is dominated by Radical and Socialist elements which when they can act together, consti tute an overwhelming majority Last Summer at frane crisis a panic out in the chamber. ned to permit M M. Briand merely a both Herriot and Briand belong the same anti-Poincare group. at this precise moment Paris was in next It had been plan- These crowds shouted of throw chamber. pleasing threats as that Herriot in the river. Turn to Poincare in Peril. In the face of this popular hostil ity Herriot gave up his undertaking and there was a common agreement to turn to Poincare peal of the Left to the man they had driven out of office two years before and had continued to assail as Poincarela-guerre. But the fear was very real and the danger great. Today the danger has passed, at {least for the present. If Poincare has not yet formal | he has restored it to an unexpectedly high level and it has remained fixed at this level for some weeks. It is actually today worth twice what it was when he took office. And at this level it is probable that the franc could now be stabilized, although many experts hold the value too high By imposing new taxes. by insist- ing upon rigid economy, by actually { governing, Poincare has restored order in French finances, On the other hand his success has been on the | whole almost too complete. The rapid | rise of the franc has brought business | depression, a degree of unemployment {and a variety of difficulties incident lto the fact that while the franc has | risen, prices have not fallen. | Thus there is real and growing | agitation against the French prime { minister based upon his success in saving the franc. The heav dustries, steel and fron, are feeling | the strain. After years in which the | cheapness of. French money enabled them to compete advantageously with Britain and with Germany, they now [find their situation becomes difficult And naturally they blame Poincare. Workers Also Dissatisfied. This dissatisfaction which is felt by the owners of industrial establish- | ments is similarly experienced by the | workingmen, who see their employ- ment diminishing. And these work- ingmen are able easily to make their protests heard by the Radical and Socialist majority of the French Cham- ber of Deputies. Since Poincare was an emergency measure, since he was called to | power not merely by his political op- | ponents, but by his personal foes, nothing was more certain than that he would find his situation precari- ous if at any time public sentiment hanged. He was literally called to office by the voice of the people in the face of the opposition of the great mass of the politicians. While, moreover, there is measur- able agreement still over the neces- sity to continue to support tha finan- cial policies of Poincare, his known opposition to much if not all of Bri- and's Locarno policy makes the re lations between the prime minister and the foreign minister excessively difficult. Thus Poincare's criticism of all of Briand's words and acts at | Geneva and at Thoiry last Fall was a matter of common knowledge But Briand has the solid backing of the majority in the Chamber of Deputies for his polic¥ of cencilia- tion. And, so far as one may judge by recent elections, the French peo- ple are still committed to the idea of Locarno. Thus any real attempt of Poincare to modify foreign policy would precipitate an immediate and enormous crisis. And he would in the end be turned out. Friendlier Toward Berlin. French feeling with respect to Ger continues to modify. The Ger- s have come back to Paris and to France in large numbers. War and post-war bitterness seems very largely to have died down. French and German business co-operation continues to develop. It is perhaps possible to exaggerate the depth of the chang New incidents might easily provoke a recrudescence of the old feeling. But at the moment France is pro- foundly peaceful and such resent- ment as the people felt is much stronger in the case of creditor na- tions than wartime enemies. Briand has been completely successful in pop. ularizing the policy 6f Locarno. The French army is being reduced stead- ily and the whole French spirit is to- day lacking in any interest or enthu- siasm for policies which have been de- scribéd as militaristic and imperial- istic. But while Poincare can momentar- ily concentrate his attention upon financial matters, he remains a nation- alist. He has not and cannot change his views with respect of the Ger- man. to hasten the evacuation of the Rhineland must be assumed. And at a point this opposition is bound to find public expression. Yet this evacuation cannot long be delayed now without danger to the whole Locarno conception. While un- der the treaty of Versailles the allied troops can stay on German territory until 1935 legally, such continued occupation would certainly have very evil consequences in Germany. After all, Stresemann's success so far has lain in the fact that his policy of con- ciliation has raised hopes for the re- tirement of allied troops. Evacuation Only Partial. Since the German foreign minister began his task, the Ruhr and the first of the Rhineland have been uated. But the other two zones |and d other foreign interests. and<the Sarre Basin-remain. - In His opposition to all proposals | POINCARE FOUND WEAKER IN PARIS POLITICAL WHIRL Fall of Premier Held Among Early Possibilities—German Cabinet Crisis May Be Factor. | cent weeks there have been very grave | collisios between French soldiers and the German population. It is, too, | from the press and leaders who are the | M. | &Y the height of the| suddenly broke | (L o Herriot to replace | goultias This would have meant | ragime. hange in_leadership, since | to| trations, But|tions and troubles have uproar and crowds formed before the | moment such | to There was more | than a little irony in this sudden ap-| whom | stabilized the franc | i | most loyal and sincere supporters of the policy of reconciliation with France that the protests against continued occupation are most frequently heard. The truth is unmistakable that allied evacuation must now be has- | tened. ~ There are dangers for the | French, obviously. Relying upon this rantee of the treaty, no steps have | been taken to fortify the new frontier of France. No rew works have been constructed between the Rhine and the Meuse and the old German forts are useless, because they were built to face toward France Moreover. the situation in Alsace at e moment is dificult in the extreme, There has been a very active German propaganda at work. It has exploited the native Alsatian tendency for par ticularism. It has made its appeal, | N0t on the basis of any return to Ger- | many, but rather upon the proposal to create an autonomous Alsace, be- rance and Germany The inevitable dislocations and dif- incident to the change of the very great difference be tween French and German adminis- a thousand and one vexa- served to Alsatian resentment, and the is by no means propitious French troops to the Al e arous retire & | satian boundary. Fear Rise of Resentment. On the other hand, as Briand and eve sensible Frenchman sees, the long protraction of allied occupation of German lands will create a new irit of resentment within Germany which will be dangerous, it not fatal, | to Locarno, and may constitute a far | greater eventual menace to French security than any immediate danger following evacuation. | In reality, while u good deal has happened to calm the surface of Franco-German reiations, at bottom the two people are very far from having become reconciled in any per- manent fashion. And no permanent adjustment is possible while the ab- normal conditions incident to occupa- tion continue. The very fact of occu- pation plays into the hands of the old order and the anti-Locarno groups and gives them their best political sue. At the moment Germany is passing through a very real and far-reaching It has been precipi- tated by the fight over the army be- tween tiw Nationalists and the Re- publicans. But the Nationalists have been able to make capital about re- cent affrays in the occupied zone, and all Gtrman public opinion is becoming uneasy and aroused. | It is, after all, of patent advantage to the allied states and to France and Belgium primarily to see the German republic endure=—io see Stresemann continue to direct German foreign policy. But both the republic and Stresemann will be compromised if allied policy continues to insist upon the occupation of German soil. Economic Phase of Thelry. At Thoiry Briand sought to find a basis for financial advantage to France which wouald eounterbalance the sacrifice of ‘the security incident to. continued occupation. He failed, because it was at once made clear that the United States Government would not assist in the flotation nf German railway securities' wnile the French debt remained unfunded. This American veto, temporarily at least, wrecked the Thoiry proposals. * French political views with respect to the debt remain obscure. On the surface there is nothing to show that the majority against ratification of the Mellon-Berenger accord, which was overwhelming in September, has disappeared since. But while this deadlock continues it is hard to see how and where there can be any bargain available which will give France money advantages in return for sacrifices in the. matter of se- curity. Poincare’s own party, the' Na- tionalist elements, has very recent- Iy taken a definite stand against the treaty. The same views have been . sharply enunciated by both the alist and Radical parties. Briand, to be sure, advocates ratification. So probably does Poincare, although his opinion_has been more or less change- able. But the majority of the mem- bers of both the Senate and the Cham- ber and the great mass of the French people are solidly hostile. Bankers and business men advo- cate ratification. They quite frankly declare the terms to be too severe and with equal frankness assert that, while the debt accord must be rati- fied, it can never be fulfilled on the present basis. But they believe that ratification would insure American financial assistance in the inevitable task of stabilization, and all desire that stabilization as the first step in restoring normal conditions. Had Chance of Ratification. Poincare might have obtained rati fication when he first came to power at the moment of panic, although this 1& open to doubt. But the gen- eral dituation within France has now improved, and with improvement the people gee far less reason for under- taking burdens which they do not regard as representing just obligations and all feel are beyond French ca- paci Poincare would certainly fall if he sought to interfere with Briand's for- eign policy, which just as certainly envisages " relatively prompt evacu- ation of the Rhineland. He might fall if he made the matter of the debt settlements a question of confidence in the chamber. But even Briand rec- ognizes the fact that while the Frencn public would probably agree to evacu- ation, if this were “accompanied by financial benefits, it would be much less easy to win popular support if no French benefit were discoverable. In reality the whole situation in Europe is now become obscure be- cause of the French and German do- mestic political situations. It is al most impossible to tell how the cat is going to jump either in Paris or Ber- lip. A Nationalist cabinet in Berlin would certainly strengthen Poincare and weaken Briand in France. But the fall of Poincare might corre- spondingly strengthen the Republican cause in Germany. Violent Change Unlikely. Nothing is likely to happen to pr duce immedijate and violent changes in the foreign policies of either France or Germany. The majority in each country is clearly for rno solu- tions. But, on the other hand, there are real dangers in the existing con- ditions. The problem of the occupa- tion must find some fairly immediate solution. And solution, is only pos sible provided there are in both Paris riin roments which _{in. « - (Continued.on Third Page) . . political crisis.