Evening Star Newspaper, December 31, 1923, Page 18

' THE EVENING STAR, WASHINGTON, D. C Better Prospects ‘of Peace Give WILD MOVES MARK 1923 COTTON TRADING Threatened World Shortage and- Reports. on Crop Result in Spectacular Markets. WY GEORGE DE WITT MOULSON. In view of the dependence of man- %ind on at least a certain amount of clothing, It is not at al) surprising that the present high cost of cotton ~hould have become one of the most interesting and much discussed cvents of the day. More and more the past two years, the world fis sradually awakened to the fact that t revolution is going on, one calling for a revision in ideas as te the rela- tive value of silk, wool and cotton. With the sole exception of the clvil war period, when a falling oft in production in the south cut off the supply of raw materfal from the | zxeat manufactur- ing centers in England, nations during modern times had been so amply provided with abun- dance cheap an. o MR. MOULSON. compared 'with silk or wool, articles made from cot- ton fiber have invariably met with ttitude of “Oh, that is only cot- Suddenly, housewives through- out the world are confronted with so #reat an increase in the cost of all votton goods that the three commod- ities are fast entering into active competition with each other. Cheap Cotton Passing. be passing closes some method ing the destructive boll weevil in the south, or countries other than the TUnited States expand their cui- tivation of the cotton plant, the question of an adequate supply of £ouds at prices within the reach of all will grow steadily’ more perplex- ing. Tndications of this w last year when cotton advanced from nts in 1921 to 27 cent of 19 During of -15 crops of averaged 14,600,000 bales. The thre: vields have averaged about ) bales, br an case of 5.000,000 bales. prices were high when the southe planter b n thinking about th p of 1 e trade hoped for a so vield this season to relieve the situatic The violent advance in values dur- ing the summer of 1922 had ecarrigd hoth spots and futures steadily up- ward, until cotton in the variocus markets of the ecountry sold above cents @ pound in the spring of this vear. The upward movement nad lifted the level to 31% cents on the New York exchange about the middle of March. So prevalent was the anticipation of a large acreage and a good crop that mills refused to buy freely and began to consume stocks on hand pending the ma- turity and marketing of new cotton from the growth of 1923. This ces- sation of buying haited the rise in prices and in about three mouths a decline of 8 cents a pound had curred. and until_science . dis- of exterminat- re perceptible Yea “otton Sharp Price Decline. fall in prices from March to July this year is to be explained on the general theory-of the function of all commodity markets to discount the future. Workin, nosition that a m 8 than that of 1922 would hdve to be purchased from the producer and financed, operations . on the three large contract exchanges were almost entirely on the si of lower prices. Following the action of the wheat market, with its decline from $1.25 to below $1.00 @ bushel in advance of the harvest period, cotton went from above 30 cents to almost 20 cents & pound. [n the case of wheat, the proc- ess of discounting the future turned out to be a correct forecast of latef developmen' But with eotton everything went wrong, and the re. view of the ious reasons for and sults of this misconception renders the past season the most interesting and remarkable in annals of the past half century. While not entirely chronological, a clear understanding of the past sea- son i best obtained by simple df sion ‘into two definite parts, the one concerning the crop faflures and fts causes and the other general conse- quences flowing therefrom. According to the annual estimate of the Department of Agriculture issued December 12, the yield of lint cotton for 1923 is 10,081,000 bales. ‘This does not include linters, which aggregated aver 600,000 bales in last year's crop. Taking =~ American and foreign growths, the total world's production of cotton promises but little more than last year, or several million bales under the.ayerage eonsumption for both 1828 and..1923. To sayv that this vears cotton crop is generally regarded as not much larger tham that of 1922 fails to give to those unfamiliar wilh the course »f events in recent years an adequate picture of what happened. It is only by going back_to the . eazly .spring months and: the high - hopes -then entertained that the real nature of the calamity is disclosed. Two Smdll.Crops: The two previous crops had prdvea =0 small that the process of with- drawing raw. material ‘necessary for current needs from reserve’ stocks had not only depleted the existing supply, but had automatically en- hanced values. ~Thirty. cent -eotton meant large returns to the grower The cotton that, when | ‘The ‘era of cheap cotton appears to annual | Though | Wwhere the crop was planted in good season and secured a fine start, At the end of May only North Car- olina and Texas had,a condition above the . ten-vear average. All other states were from three points below that average, as in the case of Alabama, to ten points below, as in the cage of Arkansas. The very fiest stages, therefore, had established a handicap in three definite particu- lars, almost vital to a good yield— an early start, a large acreage and a #00d stand for the plant. -, Nature not only did nothing during the remaining months to over- come the poor start, but she added a series of calamities that must have wrung from the heart of the south- n_planter that despairing cry of Job: “For what is my strength that n hold or what is my end that 1 should keep patience?’ First came a drought in the west belt, when for six weeks hardly a drop of rain fell over a vast stretch of cotton lands In Texas and Okla- homa. Then came ‘persist n sections east of the Missis: instead of- the warm, necessary for proper gro and cu tivatiol Some conception of the season can be obtained from the fact that throughout the entire seven months there were barely half a dozen favorable weekly summarles regarding weather conditions in the on states issued by the weather :hln'flau The other twenty-five were | poor. It was the before rains’ came to drought in the west and then they {never seemed to stop. There is no | exaggeration in the statement that | weather conditions surrounding the picking season proved the most dis- lastrous in the entire history of | American_cotton culture. Rainfall | reached flood proportions, and in both Oklahoma and Arkansas rivers verflowed their banks, not only in- juring the grade, but washing cot- {ton from the ficlds and earrying it downstream in many instances. From of April to late October the record is chapter after chapter 1of such vicissitudes as seldom, ever, occur in a single growing sea- som.’ Tt seemed as though every known menace had been assembled in final effort to o v’ m the &ro’ r and frustrate his ttempts to produce a good crop of cotton. Trade Menaced. until ne latter part of August end the {the middle 1t was the world be menacing natu confronting the trade. At the {on July 30, 1922, of the's {ton year, which begins w 11 en ason, the Américan cotton had been reduced {to betw 0.000 and 3,000,000 | bales. S Hester of the New Orleans e , whose figures are generally accepted as a rel suide in the matter of statis Dlaced. reserves at slightly 0,000 bales, The Department of ce, however, estimated the total ¥ over 3,000,000 bales, includ- & linters. But either amount rep- | resented one of the smallest re- | serves on record and a reduction of mearly 7,000,000 bales from the rry-over of only two years not September aroused to of the situat that the n se h August carry-over of over { slightl previous. For these two seasons of 1921 and 1922 consumption had been going on t the rate of 121z million bales per annum and owing to underproduc- tion ra material had been taken from the re: ve supply. 1f the world were to be clothed and the season's crop only a sh , what must be fhe inevitable effect on prices Where was the ton coming fro: to run domest foreign mills for tweiv months, until the South could mak: another attempt at producing a crop? Not out of a reserve already exhausted by two years' steady drain to apply deficiences of production! The realization of a crop failure wlnl: ed to but one outcome, namely, & Supe Dly and demand problem so serlous thaf all adjectives known to the industry becam® weak and colorless, ~ Few men are now alive fo recall that crisis in the 60's when the mills of ‘England closed because thera was no cotton to feed the machinery. There have Joped from time to time famines in some stricken corner of the world where starvation claimed i thousands of victims. But a world cotton famine nas been un- { known_since the civil war. | Confronted with tha possibility of conditions so unusual as to find those engaged in the cotton business utterly untrained by previous experience to cope with them, the first and immedi- ate results cama in a violent effort to reverse operations entered into -ear- lier in the season. Instead of the new orop being likely to exert a depress- ing influence on prices, as was the case in wheat, and is the normal ex- perfence of ~commodity exchanges during the marketing period, all indi- cations pointed to the develapment. of a sellers': market. _Instead of weight being- felt from the new crop bring- ing about a condition where there were many sellers, and buyers could purchase at , thefr convenience, it promised to be the opposite, with a rush of buyers and a demand greater tion, economic Jaws pointed but one course, that 18, prices: higher and i higher, until the very. expense in- volved in obtaining raw -material would compel ‘@ stoppage of spindles. 5 Report Boosis Price. When the September ‘report from Washington was received ‘prices were around 24 cents, In less than three months they were -I7 “eénts. i Under ordinary conditions a big advance | means large. profits for speculative interests that Were fortunate enough to. foresee the-rise and Teap rewards of their astute vision. Bt the situa- tion this year was in no sense ordi- nary. It is probably no exaggeration { to staté, that outside of an extremely limited number of individuals ' specu- it} alled cot- | than the supply. Out of such & situa- | drain on stocks at the various cen- ters in order to get through the pre- cotton left in New York or Liver- pool. Instead of 500000 bales of American cotton, the LIvarpool stock got down to 45,000 bales. In New York at one time there was less than 200 bales of cotton, certificated ac- cording to government standard, in the combined warehouses of the city. Relief would have been afforded had the south sold cotton in quantity suffi- cient to provide a supply of hedges, But wagons stood at the gins for overy bale as fast as it was turned out, leaving no surplus to come on the market. During the average mar- keting season anywhere from' 26,000 to 100,000 bales a day in the shave of hedges agalnst cotton bought somewhéere in the south are sold on the New York exchange alone. But day succeeded day with quotations mounting a spiral, without meeting any substantial supply of hedges. There was thus nothing to halt a | runaway market and in & few weeks prices touched 30 cents a pound. In nine years out of ten heaviest pressure from the new crop is ex- perienced during the month of Octo- Der. It was, therefore, not surprising that the violent advance in Septem- ber; and before the south had sold freely, should have led a large num- ber of buyers to hold off. "It was evident that the crop would prove smaller than they had been led to anticipate, but they had aiready lost Jtheir chance of cheap cotton. To miss the market at 3 cents was one thing. To plunge in at 30 cents under unsatisfactory trade conditions was another. g For nearly a month the market backed and filled between 27 and 29 cents, when operators were dumb- founded by an announcement that supplementary report on cotton would be issued by the goverment. This was instantly accepted as sus. lceptible of but one interpretation, namely, that previous reports had been misleading and a drastic cor- rection was contemplated Cotton World in Turmoil. The cotton world wgs thrown into a turmoil, Shaken as never before. Prices resumed the upward movement, and the day the report appeared, showing a reduction of 750,000 bales in the estimated crop. both the New York and New Orleans exchanges were eompelled to halt trading. so wild had become the advancesduring the war period it became advisable to prevent violent price changes as far as possible and to this end a rule was adopted limiting the trading more than 3 cents above or below the lowest or highest quotations made in any single session. After the war, these limits were reduced to 2 cents but for several years there has been no emergency to require its enforce- ment. |, Following the report of Noyember 2, prices rose 2 cents and beyond a figure of 32 cents trading ceased. But the next day the, scramble was on again, and prices rose above 37 cents bLefore the end of the month, The ace became so fast that the Bom- bay ande was compelled to halt {all trading in futures beyond that involved in the scttlement of con- tracts alveady entered into. Owing to the importance of American pro- duction in making the world price ! of cottons of all countries,.the rise {1 reached such proportions that it {secmed advisable to_suspend o tions as far as'the Dast Indian Cot- lton Association was concerned | Both European and Asiatic mills { sed cotton other than American last season because it was to be had and a lower price basis. As a result, | reserves of forelgn growths had been | reduced from 5.400,000 bales in -1921 to 3,300,000 bales in July of this year. During these two seasons the re- serves of American cotton had been cut from 9,350.000 to 3,100,000, or a reduction in world stocks of all kinds of cotton from 14,750,000 on July 31, 1821, to_ 6,400,000 bales on July, 31, 9 Production of all Kinds last vear aggregated 17,500,000 bales, with consumption of about 21,000,000, Low Rewerve Estimated. To go on consuming cotton at the! rate of the past two seasons would | bring reserves of all growths down| to 300,000 bales at the close of the present’ season. This figure is so small that in order to cut the gar- | ment to the cloth many mills will be | compelled to suspend operations be- fore the situation can be relieved through production of another crop. The threatened shortage the balance of this vear {8 so acute that the mar- ket, like a tourniquet, is attempting | to stop the flow of cotton into con- suming channels by making the price prohibitive. A review of so unprecedented & year as that of 1923 would be lack- ing in one most vital particular, without reference to the part played by the Department of Agriculture. The record is such that, in view of the amount of money expehded and | at the command of the government | {when compared with resources of | ! private concerns, it is not surpris- ing the various cotton reports this year have aroused widespread criti- | cism. i Wholly aside from the effects on prices for the producer, the confi- dence in prospects for a larger vield than was warranted by actual condi- tions has cost the trade millions of dollars, Instead of performing a public ‘service, beneficial to all in- torested, both the grower and con- sumer of cotton, reports have tended to bemuddle rather than clarify opin- ions, to mislead the trade and unset- tle the market. _ From time to time during the past thirty years agitation has been di- rected against exchanges as such, but in all thelr history, involving periodic corners and manipulations, it would be difficult to discover, in | any of these spasmodic and regret- table eruptions of the syatem, ef- fects as far-reaching and disastrous. ‘When the world was Informed in the July Washington report that on June 25 there was under cultivation in the south 38,287,000 acr . planted, an impression was created that remained in the background of all minds throughout the balance of the season. ‘That a record acreage was indeed planned, all famillar with the situation conceded. That any puch area was actually under cotton the latter part of June, as the department stated, -all private au- thorities * strenuously denied. As 2 result, the whole cotton out- look became confused. For the first time on' record, private agencies and prospects of a ‘successful vear |jative profits as a result of this sen- | thereafter issued two sets of figures, stimulated throughout agricultural the cotson' belt. e termed wegligible. A quite general activity | sational rise-in quotations can be |showing the indicated crop based on. government estimates of acreage and world needed cotton.‘and at a price | impregsion prevalls that London fur- |on their own figures of the area un- that would insure the producer one |nished the heaviest speculation and |der cultivation. Had the department of the largest returns ever received |a large amount of money has been |been in line with information from for a single orop. Winter weathe tremely favorable, west belt particularly, very low temperatures had helped kil offthe boll weevil in hibernation, while generous winter rainfall in ali sections provided ample subsoil moisture. Most important of all, the spring started early. It was not'sur- prising that when March arrivd ad- vices indicated the area to be planted 10 cotton this season would be limited by physical restrictions solely and the planter would put in every acre possible in the cultivation of cotton. Assured of a market for all the cot- ton he could raise at a price that would mean substantial profits for his summer's labor, prospects at that time were for the’ largest acreage ever recorded. ) The month of April was not half over before it becameé evident that all was not to- be plain ~saliing. Weather proved cold and wet. In- stead of promises of a fine early] planting Season, low temperatures retarded operations wnd by:May the averagé planter ized that he had an uphill fight d. Flelds lay for days’ snd ireeks und N"'!pter.‘k;mt onl: delay] pt - m Ing Tmpossible the planting Of all the land that had been plagiied for cot- ton. Hundreds of thousands of acres were either never planted at all or had to be abandoned because land never dried out sufficiently to per- mit replanting swith any definite as- surance of maturing a crop. Weather proved, -unfavorable in Oklishoma, ‘Arkansas and Georgla particularly, but effects were felt in Al a, Missi! } ;.. i Fongps- See and 3 1 e $lons were rolfa and Texas, ‘has” pfoved ex- throughout the eriod of | {made. by various, financlal groups in that quarter, { Last fall the advance of 6 cents, from 21 to 27 cents in six weeks, proved generally ‘profitable to both northern and southern interests. That rise in 1922 occurred under what might be termed the rufes of the game, Mills had been able to secure over 5,000,000 Dales under 23 cents a pound, agd with the bulk of the crop sold or con=- tracted for, the position'became at- tractive for speculation. That the market should start upward in October was all in accord with the 'best American traditions. But_ this year operators started with the very serious handicap of having guessed wrong. A large num- ber were busily engaged in extri- cating themselves from -a position that daily grew more threatening. Instead of plenty of cotton, there was ng to be a ecarcity. 'They wére us compelled to shift from a short to a long position. : and all the while the market rose. it advanced 2 cents.in a few days. Enrthquake Stimulates Market / Some had no sooner started opera- tions, for rising values than the Japa- nese tragedy sppalled the world. Lines of speculative holdings were re- duced at 2535 cents, but all liquida- Hovement contined. The volugre of movement continue business transacted expanded day by day until the -rush’to secure con- tracts for ture delivery mounted to u scale that threatened to swamp the exchange. There were not con- tracts enough to supply the demand. ‘Sooner or later every 100 bales of costoR. b by . r Tuture As baped-on 10t of” -rmuwmam-n- /Owing- to the That took time | | The economie other sources, the impression left on the trade would have proved quite different. 8 n four previous seasons over $7,- 000,000 acres had been put under cot- ton cultivation, and had the figures year been placed anywhe 36,300,000 to 38,000,000, A8 Eiver in reiiable estimates, there nothing ' in the planting estimate to lnlnf undu confidence In the outturn. Hut tn the sovernment should report a record acreage exerted a powerful pbyehological - influence. Domestic dry koods business was not good at that time, so the mills were encouraged to postpone purchases of raw ma- terial, banking on a record acreage to furnish at least a fair crop. Prices slumped from above 25 cents to below 21 cents and the state of mind en- gendered cost Amerlean mill owners cnliil]%-c n;:mvnq‘ Pt 23 e October report of an indicates yield ‘of 11,015,000, when' private o ports _were around 0,500,000, only served to delay mill buying, and it was not until October 18, when prices were around 28 cents, ‘that the sud- den announcement that the debart- ment would issue a speclal report on November 2 alarmed the trade. A Stampede developed, and within six weeks mills were scrambling for cot- ton at 35, 36 and 37 .cents, though two_months . previous they had re- fused cotton offered at $7 cents. odity Sharkets 1s 1o misimite price modity ® 'movements by n&l ipating and paring for mgn»’uu!w-’nu eofirp.:lat thein o thereby avolding orit values. But ) nausp t partment reports this year has vious season, there was’virtually no | q&@.;&geflgée‘u&e& CHAS.J.COLUMBUS. Secretary Special Dispateh to The Star, ) NEW YORK, December 31.—Ameri- can industry approaches the new year with wages higher than at any previous time fn 1923, according to a review of the vears fndustrial and employment | activities famied today by the National | Industrial Conference Board. The | ! board, whiah iu the research agency in |y industrial ecdnomics for a large numi- |3 ber of the nation’s leading industrial associations, finds little in the year per cent, while average ings “‘The latest figures ‘availabl are for ‘October, but results for the last two months of the year will probably not differ greatly from the October figures,” says the board's statement, “Between January and October, aver- &e hourly earnings increased from 1 cents to 56 cents, a gain of 11.5 made a gain of m $25.08 to $27.14. r employment eekly earn- 2 per cent During _th increased as high 1.1 per cent above the figures for nua but by October the January level was agaln reached. An increase | of 3.8 per cent in the cost of living course of wages, employment and the ' during the first ten months of the noEx uMeces " 280 T T COST OF LIVING INBEX NUMBERS UNITED STATES CHANGLS RCLATIVE TO JILY.1S14 AS BASE 100 NATIGNAL INOUSTRIAL CONF JULY JuLy JuLy 1914 18IS 1916 cost of living to give cause for immedi- | ate concern. While wages were_rising steadily trom January last up to Novembers the latest time when detailed information was available, the cost of living, the board reveals, likewise was advancing, but the advance in wages was enough to more than offset the rise in household and other expenses of the average American family. Therefore, the hoard announces, the actual increase of wages, as balanced with the slightly decreased purchasing power of the dollar during the year, as caused by the rising cost of living, has brought to the worker in industry a 1923 rise of 3.9 per cent in his weekly wage and of 8.5 per cent in his hourly earnings. ‘Wages Rone Steadlly. Summarising the industrial activity of the year, board finds that 1923 has been marked by a general upward movement in wages, with a widespread tendency to increase wage rates, com- bined with close to capacity production in many industries. The midsummer slackening of production was followed by a certain amount of curtailment in employment, but wages have so far euf- fered little reduction on this account, and are now close to the peak point, of 1920. Most of the wage increases wers in the nature of compensation for the re- ductions which occurred in 1921 and tended to bring the earnings of these workers closer to the level of thdse in the highly unionized industries, which had euccessfully combated any reduction u“hu maintained high wages through- oub-the period of Industrial depréssion. DECLARES 1924 HAS MUCH OF PROMISE Clews Puts Much Stress on Chances of Only Sane Legis- lation. < to of in | and such forecasts of spr: as aré now available are encourag- ing: ‘There is no of any serious. letdown in employ- Foreign. trade_cannot be ex- pected’ to change very much in the Special Dispateh to The Star. NEW YORK, December 31.—Re- garding the financial situation James B. Clews says: 1817 year, when weighed with the sta-|slightly more than 4 per cent within tistical increase in weekly earnings bout an and | Price houses went up nearly 8 per §5 per cent in real hourly earnings.|cent, clothing prices advanced near- Thus the wage earner is consider- ably better off at the close of 1923 than he was 2t the beginning of the|Ous times in the prices of househdld year. Living Cost Offsets Pay Rise. The advance in the cost of living| slightly. between September and October was | item, enough to offset the slight advance |is largely becauss coal prices were in_tha urchasin P Pllfllllfi‘ r- oent actual increasé of 3.9 per month, hourly earnings, or the value of money earni unchanged at 2 point 4 higher than in July, 1914, increase in weekly earnings advan “real” | weekly earnings to & point 32 per cent above July, 1914, as com- pared with 30 per cent in September. A slight increase figures of total employment is insuffi- clent to indicate any well defined up- Sard trend. In thirteen industries | INDEX NUMBERS OF THE COST OF employment increased, in nine it d and in one {ndustry it ri ciined, R mained practically unchanged. average week per wage earner in- creased from 47.7 hour: to 48 hours in October, nominal week advanced from 4 hours to 49.6 hours ant_ o ""l:‘flyofro?n 49.5 hol‘l,r. t; ?{Jo‘m ard fini e %own a definite even though l“g e urin !hadcost Df‘“\lh‘ldgvl:;:e tendency 0 'y \ment has not been comsist- oy up Fluctuations from D™ renth have been largely month to mon| political ment, 8.2 per cent brought nt, average hourly earnin with the result that and empty the shelves of m n September - the The aver: ration _declined’ situation appears to be ¢élearing, with less danger of radical raflroad -legislation, has been the expression of public opinion in favor of tax reduction and against the bonus that it would seem well within the prospect of the early months of the year that satisfactory Jegislation should be enacted and dangerous legislation avoided. business way the outlook is appar- ently clear. “Heavy Christmas trade ha: and so strong In a pparent pro in the Ilatest , MONDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1923 usiness Growth in Europ MREEE, seasonal, howover, and in November, 1923, prices of those goods and serv- ices which enter into the consump- tion of families of small and moderate means averaged 4.4 per cent higher than they were a year ago. In No- vember, 1928, the cost of living was 65.3 per cent above the July, 1914, level, but had declined 19.2 per cent from the peak of high prices réached in July, 1820. This is the highest point reached by the cost of living since May, 1921, A number of factors contributed to this change. Food prices advanced the year, rents of low and medium .1y 9 per cent and increases at vari- furnishings and supplies, drugs and candy sent up the cost of sundries Only the fuel and light showed a decline in cost. This at a high level in November, 1922, and have eince declined 6.8 per cent, but it is also partly because the cost of gas and electricity has been re- duced for small consumers {n a num- ber of cities, Electricity rates have shown an a decline of 4 per cont, and gas rates nearly 2 per cent within the year. ‘The changes in the cost.of these items on significant dates in 1923 are shown below: LIVING IN THE UNITED STATES. - (November, 1022=100) Items Nov., 5 ESB2ESE 44544 *Food price changet States bureau-of labor statistics. MANY NEW RECORDS - -MADE IN INDUSTRY National City Bank Cites Year's ded ants, ing demand “In this age of the world it is not|early future, but the experience of possible to forecast events far ahead, 1923 has shown that for essential commodities Burope is obliged to de- but at the year's close the 1924 pros- | aTPONTER LHTER0, % °0nd will fina pects must be encouraging. As things stand, regarded as decidedly | some means of making payment, so the | that the best observers are disposed 'to expeqt & continuation of forelgn e | trade upon its present footing at all = events, with possibly a gradual im- provement. o the opposite of this. They served to|Provement =~ oo o real should our delegates at Berlin succeed in persuading clates to take a favorbale as_to reparations and international debts, g0 that there may be no doubt that they will be able to obtain from a lazger degree a party way,| by Prolid::! encourage false hopes when prices were low, and the later realization of the truth only increased'the vio- lence of readjustments. ‘When acreage figures were first is- sued, the opinion advanced-in well posted cotton circles was that they threatened as great a'soandal as had occurred in 1921, when the'estimAted acry bly was later ‘corrected| of of th by 5,000,000. In view of the impor- tance of all government reports and _general disposition to ggnca them Bigher in the scale of rellabliity than those issued by ivate hould be severe: . on] N » Y, The record stands.” While making full allowance for the fallibility of| all human agencies, thers is no lese ‘Washington data the o strong stend taken Coolidge and his SBecretary of Treas- ury seems already to have clarified the campaign situation and to have lald the foundation for a sane han alin, rty issues during nited ' Stytes on, o become their asso- attitude the contest which must oc- Progress as Key to 1024 Prospects. - Special Dispatch to The Star. . NEW YORK, December 31.—The Na- tional ,City Bank's yearly review says: “The year which has just closed has seen. production in the United States_in nearly all lines either at the highest level ever reached or very close thereto. The yield of farm orops was less than that of 1922, but the official valuation for 1923 is 22,695,000, against §7,449,804,000 in 2. This increase, however, was largely in cotton and corn, and the figures for these crops are somewhat misleading as indicators of pros- perity, inasmuch as in the case of cotton they represent a high price for a smail yield grown on a large acreage, and in the case of corn crop is mainly fed'on the farms. oulture in many localities is still 1aboring under dificulties, mainly due to unbalanced price relations. > “Employment has been . practicaily up to the limit of-the labor supply: the rallroads have made a new year's record for transportation; the pro- duction of iron and steel lhn been greater than in any previous year tts aranted e Tin o permits granted in abou impor- tant cities of the country*for eléven iths to and lnulndhlf Neovember total of $3,845,612,000, & cent over the correspondin, . | The coun FEW C ei. HANGES IN YEAR, BUT OPTIMISM GAINS Marked Contrast Is Now Seen to Prophecies of Ruin That Filled the Air Twelve Months Ago. BY WILLIAM BIRD. PARIS, December 31—Before the question, “What are the prospects for business in Europe?” can be an- swered, one must ask, “What are the chances of peace?” There are plenty of business oppose tunitiee in Eu- rope; Indeed, all the elements of prosperity are to- be found — save one, namely, the essentia) elements of confidence. 1f you have $500 to put in the bank, you are not satisfied merely to look at the bal- ance sheet and see that the bank is solvent today. It you are prudent you look at the names on the board of directors. If ther are notorious plungers and speculators, you take your money to another bank. Somewhat the same attitude has been held toward Europe since the war. America . has said, “Yes, we want 1o do business. We know you're all right today. We know your ship is seaworthy, but we aren't satisfied that your helmsmen can hold a steady course in rongh political Weather. In short, although there has never been any doubt about Europe's economic, capacity, there has been scepticish as to European politics. There has been a fear lest political adventuring should render normal economic life impossible. Therefore, before examining the elements of ecomomic opportunity, it is necessary to look a moment at the political situation. Center of Interest. Burope has weathered some pretty heavy storms in 1923, and while they have left the inevitable marks of their ferocious battering, they have alsb revealed that there is still life and resistance in the old hulk. olitically, the center of interest has been tha Anglo-French alliance. One year ago it seemed to have been dissolved. Today it is showing re- newed vigor and it would be impru- dent to predict its early demise. When, just tweive nfonths ago, Ronar Law, chief of the strongly pro- French conservative party, found it necessary to break with M. l_’nln\'uc' over the question of forcing Germany to account, the entente seemed doomed. Mr. Law was cheered, not only by his own party, but still more loudly by the liberals and laborites of the o sition. ! When Bonar Law resigned to_take to his death bed, his successor. Stan- ley Baldwin, carried antipathy to French policy a step farther, and sent, in the shape of a note from Lord Curzon, what was practically an ultimatum to France, requiring her to vield to Britain's views on European peace or take the conse- quences. 1t was plainly hinted that the “consequences” would be a sum- mons to pay interest and amortization on the three-billion-dollar debt of France to Great Britain. Again the government was backed by a unanimous parliament. But M. Poincare, far from capitu- lating, sent a peppery refusal. The note-writing department of the Brit- fsh foreign office stopped functioning. Mr. Baldwin himself came to Paris, | saw Poincare, and assufed him that nothing further would be said or done about the matter. 'And so, beaten to a frazzle on the foreign issue, Mr. Baldwin was| obliged to look elsewhere fo3 Some- thing that would satisty His disap- pointed compatriots. ‘Because what's worrying England is money—ten million dollars a week paid in doles to the unemployed, and three million or so more & week due America as interest on the war debt. Baldwin, Curzon & Co. had told England that & “sane” reparations adjustment would provide markets for English goods, work for the workless, and. finaily, money from either Germany or France with which to pay America. Defeat for Protection. Poincare sald “No!” Baldwin re- plied, “Excuse me, my mistake,” and then ‘turned round to look for another { solution. o He found it in the protectiye tariff. But Bonar Law, at the last previous had| promised that protec- | tion would Be voted without refer ring it to the electorate. So Baldwin bad to order a new election before he could go ahead with his program. The result was defeat for protec- tion, but victory for nobody. All WILLIAM BIRD. {ing for “isolation.” and Baldwin governments tried to and what is more Important they ajsc own their owm souls for the first time in modern history. Previously they « kind of protectorate, ::xder the u e of all the “clvilized” powers. Now they are a real nation, and in an extremely ad tageous position com- manding numerous important t Foutes and immense natural resoures The crusaders who elght years ago riving them ({:u‘ of e v eating out of their hand. This change has come about in the eventful year of 19 A common” detestation of Greece. whose immense and dearly won em- pire has melte y in the same #pace of time, unites the Turks to the ]|7f|lhfl~. The latter, since the rise of Mussolini, have bent their energies toward establishing them- selves as rulers of the Mediterranean Against this pretention we find the Jugoslays, who were once called the “brave little Serbs, nd have never been able to comprehend why all their natural seaports w handed to Italy at the peace confere nce. The French, who don't relish the {dea of having’ the sea that separates them from Moroceo and Algeria tu 1 Into an Italian lake, are backing the slavs in this business. Economic Conditions, onomically speaking; the ye gan very badly. The Ruhr Invasio stopped the wheels of the greatest machine shop in Europe. It will not be easy to repair the damage that has resulted from ten months of enfe d iidlen(-‘!fi But just as the year nes to a ¢ e the wheels are beginning to turn again. An agreement bety 1l |the French forces of occupatior | the Ruhr magnates seems to prom| ¥ both parties keep faith, that Ruhr will, if anything, becoms m powerful as an industrial center than ever before. It may mean prosperity not only for Germany, but for France as well, and if that happens it will be momentous for the world's peacs. It will mean that Germany and France have a common and compelling inter- est in being good neighbors. It may teach both nations that war between them cannot profit elther, but will weaken both for the advantage of third parties. “United we stand, di- vided we fall” would not be a bad motto for Franco-German cconomi alliance. But it 'is hard to ses how the Britis economic situation will be helped by this new development. Indeed, fusjon of French and German economic in terest. has always been opposed b Great Britain as a_vital danger t British industry. During tho pas year, although there has been no im- provement in the unemployment prob- lem in England, the situation has been saved to some extent by tre mendously increased exportation o coal, caused by the stoppage of coal production In the Ruhr, Franco-German co-operation in t economio fleld will mean increa efficiency for both countries, but th: consequent increase in production in & world already suffering from “over- production’ i3 scarcely comforting to * those nations which already have to lay off workmen for lack of markets However, that bridge may be cross ed when 'we come to it. As yet Franco-German co-operation is only - an interesting possibility. The vear has produced few changes. broadly speaking, in the European outlook. It is worth noting, however, that the general atmosphere is de- cidedly optimistic as compared with the dire prophecies of ruin that filled + the air twelve months ago. Stabllity Prospects, The essential foundation of busi- ness—confidence in the stability of conditions—is thus beginning to re appear in Europe, and on the Amer; can principle that Europe must put her own house in order before Amer ica will take a hand, the prospects look decidedly brighter than a year’ ago. Does this mean that America will | get, entangled” in Kuropean poli- ics? The answer is that America is al ready “entangled.” America got en- tangled when she entered the Euro- pean war and she.let herself in for good ‘when she lent $10,000,000,000 to the European belligerents. When banker lends money to a busines man he gets decidedly entangled in that man’s affairs. If the borrower gets into financial difficulties, the banker, to protect himself, must take an active interest in helping him out of his troubles. The example of England should be enlightening. England has been cry- The Bonar Law r he- pull out of continental politics. They even tried the long-recommended threat of demanding repayment of the French debt to England. But it , failed to work, and it is safe to say that ean be said of the present Brit- ish parliament fis that no matter what coalition may be formed, it will not be able to do anything positive. So_Poincare. with a solid 500 votes behind him in the French chamber, can do much he pleases with any precarious British cabinet that may be set up. The tables are completely turned since the days when the un- beatable Lloyd 'George upset one French ministry after another. Poincare not only has 500 deputies behind him, but an overwheiminly superior air force, and as long as this condition prevalls any nearby island power will be llkely to follow the principle that discretion is the better, part of valor. Germany, meanwhile, has been hav- ing her own kind of troubles. The occupation of the Ruhr, which began in the first fortnight of the present year, has been a thorn thrust deeply into her side mearpst the heart and scientifically, twisted from time to time by the French and Belglans. Resistance has cost fabulous sums to the German treasury and driven the currency down until where one used to count marks by thousands, one now counts them by millions of mil- lions. R Yet Germany, too, has shown an #most unbelieyable vitality through her trialas. kruptcy, ruin, red revolutiorf, are words easily bandied | about by prophets of evil, and heaven knows they have been used copiously enough with respect to Germany this year. But the Hitler-Ludendorft fi- asco and the far from brilliant re- entry of the crown prince have dem- onstrated how much more solid, pa- tient and sagacious the German na- tion is than anybody in his wildest imaginings could suppose. There may be a point at which German republi- canism will crack, but that point has not yet been reached, 'and, viewing the évents of the past year, it would be rash indeed to prophesy just when it will be. Typleal Dictatogiuian. Elsewhere, however, the cause of democracy has not flourished per- ceptibly. The two typical dictator- ships—the soviet government in Rus- sia and the Mussolini regime in Italy —have gained strength, and they have éven found playmates, among whom the biggest is Gen. Primo de Rivera of Madrid. But then there has never been popular government in spain, where politics is largely a Qquestion’of cligups and factions, Eu generally seems to have reached the conclusion that the Soviet regime has come to stay for an in- dpfinitely long time, and whilo official that if America tries to pull out of European affairs in the same way. the result will be the same. NECROLOGY. (Continued from Thirteenth Page.) Luther W. Mott of Oswego, N. Y Albert Chevalier, English actor; Dr. L. Wilbur Messer, Y. M. C. A. leader: Louis _Couperus, Dutch novelist: John M. Siddall, editor of American Magazine; Judge W. H. Gabbert Colprado jurist; Rear Admiral C. D Sigsbee, William Holabird, Chicago architect; Gen. Francisco Villa, ex- leader of Mexican rebels, and Sir Charles Hawtrey, English actor. Death of President. In August: Warren G. Hardine. President of the United States; C John I. Martin, veteran sergeant-at- arms of democratic national conven: tions; Mrs. Candace T. Wheeler, au- thor; Prince . Fabriaio Colonna;, Itallan statesman; Randall Parish. author; Juaquin Sorolla, Spanish painter; Frank D, Weir, noted horse- man; Charles Archer, English actor; Marie Wainwright, actress: Ralph L.. Polk, publm,erg of city re tt‘;rlcr Baron Kato, premler of Japan; Kat Douglas. Wiggin, author; 2 Kimball,, artist: Pri of Greece, formerly ) Thomas iosher, publisher. , In September: Bdward Payson Dut fon, publisher; W. R. Thayer, author and journalist; Dr. C. F. Milispaugh. botanist of Chicago University; Paul J. Rainey, explorer;: Max Bohm, ar- tist; Dr. 'Edward Ryan, noted Red Cross worker in Persia; Viscount Mor- ley, English statesman and author:’ Chauncey 1. Filley, former republican leader in Missourl; Chief Justice C L. Brown of Minnesota supreme court Edwin G. Cooley, Chicago educator: Sir Halliday Croom, British surgeon. In October: J. W. Bengough, Ca- nadian poet and ertist; Qscar Brown ing, English historfan; Prof. Malcolm McNetl of Lake Forest University; ex- Gov. H. H. Markham of California’ Ralph Peters, president Long Islandy fallway; Dr. Boris Sidis, psychopath-% ologist:' Dr.’ C. P. Stolnmets, famous: electrician; Andrew Bonar Law, for-. mer British prime minister. - In November: G. R. Huntington, president Soo rajlway: S. R! McCali.; Mdssachugetts statesman: Frederick, recognition is not being accorded by the powers, they are making every effort to,capture Russian trade, They take somewhat the attitude of “?«»n who says tg 2!- Imtoh@r..nlmt Ilfl\n:yo ur meat, buf 'ou can’ :‘hm socially with a man who slsughters inncoent little lamba, ;fl emergs = g: rflltil:&u of They have all the ter before'and then sonte, L. Rawson English metaphysician:! Clifford Thorne, noted lawyer of Towa: -Anthony Caminettl, form commissioner of immigration; G. Taylor, president Ametican Railwa 58 Com| ; Frederic! D, rpress Catioe ‘Christian Sclencd, i ord _chancellor: A. O. hnnnl‘%m: newspaper editor of; Dansville, N.- ¥. <