Evening Star Newspaper, December 31, 1923, Page 15

ALL RECORDS SMASHED IN MANY COMMODITIES %1,000,000 Autos Built—Clothing Prices Advance Slightly—Flour Under 1922 Range. Enormous BY J. C. ROYLE, The greatest automobile year in history! While final fizures have not vet become available, there is ample evidence that the output for the year in American fac- tories has practi- cally reached 4,- 000,000 vehicles compared with an outturn of 2,584,- 296 in 1922, OF this number, the Ford factories con- tributed nearly half. The Ford output for the year undoubtedly would have been full 2,000.000 cars but for the week ilowed in Decem- ber for inventory, J. C. ROYLE. At the close of this year there “'Hl be in operation in the United States approximately 14,000,000 motor Vehicles One of the features of the year w the numb lacements neces sary. It is estimated that these alone ccount for almost 2,000,000 cars 1 d there is a distinet tend- today toward the early scrap- ping of sicond-hand eavs. The in- creas of the population and the natural increase in income of citizens of this country, it is mated, will provide for the purchase of 600,000 new cars next vear, above the regular rate of increase. The r was one of the keenest kind of competition and saw the de- mise of some of the. smaller com- Panies while the larger concerns were enabled to increase sales and output. I'rice changes were not infrequent and, in general, the movement was downward although there were nota- ble exceptions. The changes in price, however, were more for the purpose of invading certain price fields than from cut-throat tactics within the same ficld, Models, toward the end of the year, showed considerable change although the closed ¢ continued to grow in popularity. w mechanical features such four-wheel brakes and other devices were introduced. Seasonable slumps in production were notable by their abscnce., BEach time a falling off in factory production was forecast demand made curtailment inadvisable, The year, so far as the Ford com pany was concerned, was marked by yapid strides tuward the production by the company itself of all ma- terials used in the manufacture of Ford car The Ford lum coal, iron ore 4 textil holdings were materially increased. New glass ants were added, the foundries aug- ented and the Ford stem of con- tinuous overation carried into a dozen other ir ries. Sales policies of various companies we altered to a considerable degree in a scarch for new and live retatl agents and di ibutdrs and the num- ber of men engaged m selling motor cars increased rapidly as the year drew to a close Programs alre r show that incre and e en out the used some cases was an obstacle il dealers in the past year. The Ford plants are being adjusted to a Possible production of 10,000 cars a day and General Motors schedule provides an 88,000 car production in January. have been excellent and the cash he main factors in the in- , while inventories are 1 number of cars in the hands of deale would seem to indi- cate a heavy volume of orders in the early part of 1924, Candy manufacturers wound up De- in enc S outlined for next the larger companies ather than diminish orts are being made car situation, ady low. cember with their factories working overtime to supply the demand. The consumption during the year was fully up to expectations and production was not materially interrupted even by the flurry in the sugar market in the spring which caused uneasiness to other con- sumers. Most of the candy manufac: turers had adequately provided for their needs and were independent of fluctu- ations of the market. A move was made throughout the west to put local manufacturers in a position to compete with eastern makers and the campaign resulted in decidedly increased sales throughout the western territory. The final stimulus was given the industry by the heavy volume of Christmas busi- ness. In some sections this was the heaviest ever known. CLOTHI The remarkable thing about clothing prices during the year were that they were maintained at so low a level, The industry was singularly unaffected by labor troubles, but in spite of that fact the scale of wages was high. Raw materials increased in pri Yet cloth- ing prices in both men's and women's wear showed only the most moderate advances. This was due, in chief, to the deter- mined efforts of manufacturers to re- duce manufacturing and selllng costs. Rents were cut down, space was con- served and the efficiency of office and sales forces was materially increased. These betlerments enabled the retailers to sell clothing at only an insignificant advance in prices. Part of the saving was due to the effort made to obviate the necessity of aiterations. It was de- termined that retaflers would gauge more accurately the standard measure- ments of the customers in their sec- tions and this enabled the manufactur- ers to so stabilize style that expensive alterations were cut down. Overcoats were the feature of the men’s clothing trade for the year. This is attributed in part to the increased use of the automobile and to the fact that the soft materials, not guaranteed to give extended service, came into wide popularity. The light-weight season of the year gave promise that the tropicals in 1924 again will furnish a post to which both manufacturers and re- tailers can tie with the certainty that the profit feed bag will shortly be tied on. The National Retail Clothiers’ As- sociation has determined to make an organized effort to prune overhead costs both in interests of their own profits and of lower prices to con- sumers. COAL Strikes and the rumors of strikes have been the dominating factors fn the coal industry throughout the year. The bituminous mines were relieved momentarily of this cloud by the settlement in 1922, but they knew that the anthracite Industry faced a struggle this year. Bituminous coal ‘was produced In volume early in the year to flll markets that might be left barren of anthracite. The an- thracite mines were idle but a few weeks and resumed at full capacity and under the highest wage scale recorded in the industry after the ettlement in Harrisburg in Septem- Stnos that time, anthracite mine: have run almost at capacity. Miners have been pald high wages for full slme angd the railroad facilities haVve Fruit Crops. been adequate to fill all markets., The rise in wages given the anthracite miner were reflected in an advance of 75 cents a ton, on the average, in domestic_sizes of anthracite at the mines. Politics is alleged to have played a large part in these negotia- tions and charges and counter charges of extortion were made in the anthra- cite industry. However, the prices of anthracite rose until §5 cents a hun- dred pounds was declared a fair price at dealers’ yards in New York for small purchasers. The bituminous mines having failed to capture the anthracite markets .found their production had exceeded rormal requirement and the end of the vear saw a decided curtailment of operations in the bituminous fields. Miners, operators and dealers agreed {that there were 200,000 more men en- |#aged in the bituminous industry than were required and that the possible production of the mines exceeded de- mand. Curtailment was the inevitable consequence and prices for bitumi- nous fuel dropped sharply. There is no doubt that the strikes {and threatened scrikes resulted In the |\wide adoption of oil as fuel and to this extent the industry lost ground jduring the year. The wage agreement between bi- tuminous operators and miners comes up for readjustment during 1924, There is every probability that the contest will find both sides stiff-necked jand disinclined to give ground. The opArators hope to abolish the “check- {off" system of collecting union dues iand count on the non-union miners to help them through a fight over this question. The miners are set to demand more wages, because in many mines while the rate is high, the {number of days worked @ week has reduced earnings to a point which the | employes consider below an accept- able minimum. The railroads have offered better service in the past year to coal ship- | ments than ever before and the year ends with few localities in acute need of fuel and with a record tonnage handled over the great lakes to the west and northwest, Stocks of bituminous aboveground {are now higher than at any time since 1916. The activity in pig iron pro- duction has stimuiated the coke mar- ets. | COFFEE l The coffee situation throughout the larger part of 1923 w dominated by the condition of Br: an exchange and the efforts of the Brazillan gov- ernment to hold up the price of the | product through restriction of mar- keting. Demand in this country was steady and large throughout the year. Imports were high above those for "l! 2 and at the rate of more than 1. ,000,000 pounds for the year. | Prices in general were steady’ and slightly above the 1922 level. The demand in the latter part of the year at retail was one of the features of the grocery trade. COTTON GOODS g The line of demarcation between a profitable and a profitless season in the cotton goods business seems to have been a geographical one. The rise in the price of cotton was not re- flected in a corresponding rise in cot- ton goods. Manufacturers seemed unanimous in their fear of buyer sistance to increased goods prices. Under these conditions the southern mills had an advantage over New England in nearness to source of sup- ply, cheapness of labor and cheaper power. In consequence, the southern mills were heavily engaged throughout most of the year and most of them announced satisfactory profits as the period closed. In New England some mills continued to operate at a profit on_ certain lines, while others cur- tailed production and declared they ran only to keep their organizations intac Ginghams suffered most. The pro- duction of this line in 1922 yielded large returns, but in 1923 the public taste turned to other fabrics and ginghams became almost a drag on the market at prices which high raw cotton demanded. The trend of profits was amply evidenced by the move many New England textile concerns made to acquire or build mills in the south. Textile machinery was in active demand for southern mill ex- pansion. There is every Indication, manufac- turers state, that with cotton at its present figure increased prices for goods must follow. Some lines al- ready have been advanced, but when a further move in this direction will make its appearance will not be known until buyer resistance has been tried out. DAIRY PRODUCTS The co-operative marketing system worked wonders in the dairy products industry during the past year. Prices naturally were affected by local con- ditions, but the orderly marketing of products produced a generally higher level of returns to farmers than they have received in recent vears. A | notable example of this was the ef- fort made to establish a dairy prod- ucts center at St. Paul. This resulted in a close grading of products, which enabled consumers to buy with more confidence than ever before and pro- duced a most satistactory result to Dproducers, especially in cheese. The demand for ice cream was un- excelled during the year and some druggists selling to final consumers found keen advantage in establishing their own manufacturing companies. On the plan adopted they paid the regulation price current in the town in which they operated, but at the close of the vear the dividends on the ice cream companies yielded them a rebate which placed the cost of the ice cream they sold far below the sums paid by those who did not par- ticipate in the movement. DRUGS AND CHEMICALS In general drug and chemical prices In 1923 did not show the same ratio of Increase that affected other com- modities. However, the demand all over the country throughout the twelvemonth was active and produc- ers and manufacturers had little to complain of in the general volume of trade. Calclum arsenate, used widely in the figfht against the boll weevil, was the feature of the chemical market. Denatured and industrial alcohol returned fine profits to producers throughout the year the general level of prices being far above that of 1922 and trading was further stim- ulated by a sharp advance in Novem- ber. Nitrate of soda prices also were well over the average of last year although sulphate of ammonia, aftera good early start, suffered deciines in the later months. Glycerine also had a good early start and fell off later but the Japanese disaster proved a stimulant to many of the oriental drug and chemical products. Botan- ical drugs were in excellent demand. JOHN W, PRENTISS The dry goods industry had the time of its life in 1923 shivering and being afraid. The industry talked continuously of a buyers strike, which would resist all attempts to advance prices in consonance with the rise in raw commodity rates. Nothing of the sort happened. Cotton advanced materlally cotton goods advanced with though not in the same ratio. buyers' strike developed. The silk market for finished prod- ucts were dull and it was feared they would not respond to advances inci- dent to the Japanese earthquake. In effect, the demand for sllk goods in- creased in proportion to the difficulty with which these goods were pro- duced. The woolen goods markets were carefully held down to the lowest point compatable with operativn of mills at a profit and the gvods mar- ket was fairly satisfactory except to those who failed to recognize 1is trend. The latter months of the year showed an increase of 12 per cent in the countrywide sale of dry goods as compared = with the corresponding period of 1922 and many of the large companies, including the mail order houses, hung up records for sales in these lines in the fall and winter. ELECTRICAL The electrical equipment manufac- turers not only were forced to run at capacity throughout the greater por- tion of 1923, but they have suflicient orders on their books to keep them going at a simllar rate at least until the middle of 1924. The year for deal- ers and manufacturers has been one of tremendous activity and prosper- ity Demand for heavy machinery has been unprecedented. Deveicpment of steam and hydro electric puwer plants has been on a tremendous scale and gives no intimation that it will not continue. Textile mill expansion in the south has taxed factories to sup- ply equipment. The Japancea disas- ter has resulted In large orders for rehabilitation of industries in that count The prospective demand from Germany and Italy s great and the programs of the public utility companies gives assurance of another banner year for makers. The building boom of 1923 has stimulated manufacture of lighting equipment and sales of and it al- No equipment appliances. o than business has progressed faster even the most optimistio pred This latter movement has been by lower prices, improved products and greater broadcasting efforts. The three largest manufacturers— General Electrio, Western Eleotric and Westinghouse—together booked $576,262,404 worth of business in the first’ three-quarters of the year. Or- ders for the last quarter are known to have been on an equally broad scale. These figures indicate a gain of over.40 per cent for the year, as compared with 1922. New building has brought hun- dreds of thousands of new custom- ers to the light and telephone com- panies, and each of these new in- stallations has meant more work for the equipment companies. FLOUR Reflecting to & measurable degree the conditions in wheat, flour mill- had an unsatisfactory year. The range of prices wi under that of 1922 and the volume of exports also showed a falling off. ~This latter condition was more noticeable in the case of Europe, as demands for the orient continued of good proportions. Shipments from the Pacific north- west ports were good and mills in some sections operated almost at 100 per cent capacity in the fall and early winter. Distributors through- out this country, however, followe a general practice of buying for im- mediate needs only. The situation was benefitted somewhat in the east by the fact that the supply of hard wheat east of the Rockies was not proportionately large. FRUIT CROPS There were some tremendous fruit crops throughout the country in 1923. The returns from these bump- er crops, however, were counteract- ed in certain varieties by low prices. This was especially the case in apples. The production in the Pa- cific northwest was especially heavy and prices correspondingly low. For a time, there was an excellent de- mand from England, but this market was gobbled up by producers along the Atlantic seaboard, Who conse- quently did fairly well on the season. In some sections of the middle west the fruit was allowed to rot or was "1‘:! L h d grapes also icots, peaches an mflgred in some sections from low prices. In the east the h grow- ers did well, but in California low P e otd “Califprnta._oran i 0 : :nlll h: dlg?nxknlt-ly !{ xes, including gra hole, the crop Is omr quality. e Florida crop alsois expected to be of record proportions and of splendid quality. Prices in Callfor- nia are approximately $1 a case lo er than a year ago. orange cfop was advantageously marketéd in general and the grape- fruit production along the Rio Grande brought good prices. The California lemon crop is the THE EVENING STAR, icted. | customers o alded | panies. ! ! I l largest in history. It is estimated at 5,432,400 boxes or approximately 2,000 more carloads than last season. Prices are about $1.50 a box under those of 1922, The grape yield all oyer the coun- try was heavy and, in a good many sections, was advantageously mar- keted. The Callfornia_raisin production was 237,000 tons. The decreased sugar content’ of the crop, due to un- favorable weather, forced the mar- keting of a part of the output to dis- thlers and the classification of a fur- ther portion as low grade. This hurt returns to growers. The California output of dried fruf was heavy and a major portion a ready has moved into hands of retallers. | FURNITURE l A sum approximating $580,000,000 was spent in this country for furni- ture in the past year and the outlook is for a continuation of both produc- tion and demand. The trade undoubt- edly was stimulated by the volume of bullding construction and there has been a readjustment of prices down from the 1920 records to between 30 and40percentabovethepre-warlevels. Some of the larger retail storesshow- ed an undoubted increase over the sales of last vear and some manufac- turers had difficulty in turning out all the furniture they could sell, but many factors in the trade reported a slump in the fall of the year which was remedied to a considerable extent by wide advertising during the holi- day period. GLASS The demand for plate glass was the dominating factor in the glass indus- try throughout the year. This was due largely to the increase in auto- mobile production and the popularity of the closed type of car as well as to the volume of business houses and hotels erected. Throughout the year factories turning out this product were far behind orders. Several con- solidations were made and plants were acquired by large jobbers in or- der to assure themselves of adequate supplies. The Ford Company made some revo- lutionary changes in method of pro- duction during the year and assured production by its own plants suffi- clent to meet the larger part of its needs. Window glass was in fine demand, although the volume of orders fell off as autumn gave place to winter. I1- luminating glass plants were actively household | occupied and the number of light bulbs turned out increased tremen- dously in response to the needs of new power and light com- GROCERIES The _grocery trade in general throughout the country has been on a stable basis during the year, with sales in many sections showing an in- crease of from 5 to 10 per cent above those of 1922. The total figures were swelled to an appreciable degree by the demand for holiday goods toward the close of the year. The better trend in the grocery business has been attributed in part to the wide employment at good wages which has existed over the country and in part to the fact that heavy stocks of staples on shelves and in warehouses have been reduced. For a time_grocers held off from con- tracting for_ their requiremeénts of canned goods, but this tendency passed after midyear and the later months saw heavy deliveries of canned goods on future contracts. HARDWARE As in many other lines of industry, the building construction activity of the year was the mainspring behind the activity in hardware. Builders of hardware continued active even after the winter season set in, while plumb- ers’ supplies and electrical hardware showed equal demand originating from this source. The industry made full response to the general business activity of the country, and even in agriouitural sections the volume of sales was somewhat above that of 22. 3 ices for bullders’ hardware were slightly lower than in 1922, but were well maintained. Other branches of the trade showed price recessions. In November price reductions of from 10 to 16 per cent were announced on hammers, hatchets and broadaxes and blacksmiths’ and machinists’ tools were lowered 10 per cent. Gar- den wheelbarrows lost 50 cents each and crowbars 50 cents per hundred- welght. IR AND STEEL Full returns may indicate that the steel industry, taking all things into consideration, had one of the greatest yeats in history in 1923. In May of this year steel operations reached the highest point in their history. Ship- ments of iron ore on the lakes came close to the record. Thirty milllon tons were mined in Minnesota alone. The dally average output of pig iron for the first ten months was at the rate of 37,000,000 tons a year. Even the lowest month of the year was 100 per Cent above the daily average production of the best month of 1921 and 36 per cent above the dally aver- 250 (e ieat Ton months of the Pear for the first ten mon ‘was only slightly below that for the record year of 1916. For steel ingot production the out- ALFRED P.SLOAN,dR. PA.S.FRANKLIN JuLiws K HARRIS-EWNG put for the first ten months of the year was approximately 37,250,000 tons. The average daily output for the poorest month, however, was equal to an annual rate of 41,000,000 tons, and there is_every possibility that the figures for the last two months will bring' the total well above the record of 43,500,000 tons in Prices for steel products were well stabllized for the last eight months of the year. That is, there were few violent fluctuations, although there were some price concessions and some cases where premiums above the scale were paid for prompt delivery. Plg iron prices fell off sharply from the peak of the yvear, but there was a decided strengthening of demand in the latter months. As the end of the year approached the prospect for a continuation of the price scale grew better. There was a slight sign of weakening in some products, compensated, how- ever, by increased demands for oth- ers. Composite prices for finished steeltowardthe close of the year were approximately 30 cents a hundred pounds above thoso on January 1, There seems no decline in the vol- ume of building operations in pros- pect. The railroads have given as- surance that they will continue their tremendous programs of equipment expansion. The carriers consume 22" per ‘cent of the country's steel and while car installations at the rate of 15,500 a month may not continue, the demand for rails, track materials and bridges will be enor- mous. The automobile business absorbs 10 per cent of the steel output and plans now outlined for 1924 production give promise of a year second only to 1923 in that Industry. It is pos- sible that 4,000,000 cars may be produced next year. As automobile factories require lasge percentages of the sheet steel and bar steel pro- duced, the demand for those prod- ucts probably will be great. The output of shests was stimu- lated during the year by the Jap- anese requirements for earthquake re- placements and this demand has by no means been satisfied. The ofl pro- duction of the country is at such a stage that tanks will continge to be bullt in great numbers, with conse- quent consumption of plat The outstanding feature of the year in the steel industry was the final abolition of the twelve-bour day and a_readjustment of wages for those who still work more than eight hours. Another feature was the abandon- ent in the Chicago market-of the Pittsburgh plus” plan of making prices by some steel manufacturers. HATS There never was a year in the his- tory of the hat industry which show- ed less variation and seasonal slump between seasons. This was due in part to the absence of critical labor diffculties and to the change in policy among hat retailers. The manufacturers for a time were panicstricken by the failure of the retallers to order in full their spring, summer, fall and winter supplies. About midyear they found that while the orders were small, they were coming with increasing frequency and that the new system enabled the manufacturer to keep a steady force at work all the time turning out the requirements of his patrons. The added eficiency of the railroads and express and mail Service made this Ppossible. The straw hat manufacturers and dealers had a big year. The general level of prices was a bit lower, but there was a decided falling off in clearance sales. Then, oo, there was 2 decided tendency toward the buy- ing of mare than one hat for each sason. This made itself felt first in the straws. Customers, instead of having hats cleaned, bought new ones. In the fall they bought light gray felts and later a more somber shade. The spring trade is looked for- ward to without apprehension by both manufacturers and retailers. HIDES AND LEATHER The year was a disapponiting one for the hide and leather, industries. The annual period was started with heavy stocks of hides on hand and prices showed a steady decline up to midyear. There was a betterment after that time, but not of sufficient proportions to make the year a pros- perous one. I " POULTRY. ‘Weather and growing conditions favored poultrymen during the year and they raised tremendous quanti- ties of birds. The crop of turkeys was 8o large, however, that prices ‘were materially lower than in 1922, except in isolated sections. After Thanksgiving growers of Idaho and the Pacific northwest entered into something like a trade duel with Texas and prices to growers dmr- ped to the neighborhood of 18 to 20 cents a pound on the hoof, which put times. complain- their profits were curtailed to the banishing point by the fact that commission men controlied the principal markets. In considering profits on poultry, however, it is well to remember that most growers count on making their poultry pay for itself and -yield a profit from eggs, and that marketing of birds is a secondary consideration. WASHINGTON, D. O, MONDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1923, American Industry, During 1923, Saw Greatest Activity It Fver Has Known RUTTSCHNITT JEWELRY ‘The year 1923 was unspectacular but profitable in general for silver- smiths, jewelers and jewelry manu- facturers. Volume of business show- ed improvement and the demand for higher priced artioles became in- creasingly apparent as the year drew to a close. In the early part of the period, the cheaper goods were in most demand but qualily became the dominating factor later. The trend was helped by the increase in the price of platinum. The Tutankhamen craze provided decided stimulus to some of the costume jewelry. The scarclty of certain cuts and qualities of diamonds kept prices for those stones up. So far as the big sales went, it was a pearl year. LUMBER The tremendous amout of bullding construction throughout the year afforded a firm support to the lumber industry. The output for the year, both in the Pacific northwest, the southern pine belt and in the north, ran well well ahead of last year and was alded, especially in the west, by the heavy orders from Japan follow- ing the earthquake. NON-FERRQUS Copper, lead and zinc showed de- clded increases in production during the year. In the case of the firat st, however, consumption, al- though of extraordinary proportions, did not keep pace fully with produ tion and profits were limited ac- cordingly. Copper mines, long inactive or on part time, were speeded up. The miners wage scale was increased dur- ing the early part of the year and tremendous volume of the red metal was turned out. Consumption was helped materially by the prosperity of the automobile industry, the ex- pansion of electrical equipment orders, and the enormous volume of building. Then, too, a large volume of cop- per was sold to Germany for cash, However, the latter source of revenue was cut off when Germany was in- ferentially called on to explain how she could buy copper for cash with no cash to pay reparations. Copper shipments to domestic and foreign consumers reached a point where, in October they totaled 210,000.000 pounds. The refineries, however, turned out that month 230,000,000 pounds, so that in spite of 'the huge demand, the surplus stocks increased 20,000,000 pounds for the month. Sliver was affected by the expira- tion/ of government purchases at $1 an ounce, under the Pitman act, which took place just after midyear, but producers took steps to form a Silver Export Association to handle export demand and to discover and foster additional uses for the metal. Al- though prices suffered a drop of more than one-third from the sums pald by the government the chief effect came on_ the few mines which de- pended chiefly on silver ores without a_subsidiary metallic content. There has been a slight betterment of operations in the gold producing mines, but this has not been par- ticularly marked. Aluminum was benefitted to some extent by the demand for household utensils and demand from other gc- tive industries, but the price remain- ed fairly stationary at levels above those for 1922. OIL The ofl industry has had a dis- quieting year and the immediate future holds only a little encourage- ment for a change for the better, al though for the long haul the tre- mendous increase in consumption is a factor which cannot but be reas- suring. i Early in the year, a sharp decrease in production in the Mexican fields took place, but this was immealately counterbalanced by the territic flush production of the Huntington Beach, Long Beach and Santa Fe Springs fields of California. New wells ware started as fast as drillers could work. The peak of this output was reached in mid-August, when the dally aver- age flow was 872,000 barrels. Efforts to curtall production were unavailing for leasers and owners forced the possibility of ofl being drained from below their property if they 4id not in turn sink wells and tap the im- mense subterranean reservoirs. The peak of the California produc- tion apparently passed in Neptember for since that time daily production has fallen from around 860,000 to around 760,000 barrels. No sooner was,the peak of Call fornia production¥ passed, however, than the total output was raised by the expanding flow from the Powell fleld of Texas, which showed in- creases from 262,000 barrels in September to around 420,000. The reduction in California output of 100,000 barrels a day therefore has been met by an increase in the Powell fleld of around 155,000 barrels. ‘As the year closed, however, the peak of Powell field production also ap- to have passed. ‘National daily output, in spite of attempts at curtallment, is running above 2,825,000 barrels, and there will be approximately 400,000,000 bar- rels of crude ofl in stock when 1924 comes in. Moreover, the industry at the moment is in & perfod of seasonal inactivity of consumption. FEven in 15 BUSINESS LEADERS SEE PROSPERITY FOR YEAR Outlook in Trade and Industry Held Auspi- cious—Particularly With Prospect of Tax Reduc By the Associated Press. NEW YORK, December 31.—Lead- ers in the fleld of business and bank- ing in the United"States are looking forward to'a prosperous year in 1924. Forecasts for next year's trade, prepared by some of the leading in- dustrial and financial executives of the country, generally breathe the spirit of optimism. Opinlon among them is virtually unanimous that the adoption of Secretary DMellon's tax reduction program would be a great stimulus to business and industrial activity. While it is admitted that the unsettled European economic situation has an adverse effect on shipping and the copper and wheat markets, it is generally agreed that it does not control domestic business prosperity. Gary Optimistic. There is nothing in sight to cause apprehension for the near future, in the opinion of E. H. Gary, chairman of the board of directors of the United States Steel Corporation. Next year, he said, should be a bet- ter year than 1923, which was char- acterized by a marked revival of business followed by a period of de- creased activity, and then a period 9f (Tenewed opfimism and cautious nEg. “As an indication of our confidence in the business future of the coun- try,” asserted Charles M. Schwab, chairman of the board of the Bethle- hem ~Steel Corporation, “I would point out the fact that our corpo- ration is spending $25,000.000 to per- fect its faclilities for turning out steel and steel products at the lowest possible prices “at our Lackawanna plants in Buffalo.”” Faith in Coolldge. “Business men,” Mr. Schwab add- ed, “should be very much heartened by the soundness of the Views ex- pressed by President Coolidge in his initial message to the country. I feel the President, to a remarkable degree, has voiced the opinfon of the American people and that Congress cannot disregard his suggestions. “Business may be hampered at times, but the driving force, the com- mon sense and_the- initiative of the American people will, in the end overcome any and all’ obstacles and we are bound to proceed on our pros- perous way.” While expressing the belief that “no other industry holds quite the amount of uncertainty that the oil business does, for the reason that no one can foretell for any long pe- riod ahead the course of petroleum production,” W. C. Teagle, president of the Standard Oil Company of New { Jersey, takes a somewhat optimistic view of the outlook for 1924, Overproduction of Oil. “Throughout 1923, Mr. Teagle said, “the volume of business has been good, but much of it at prices that allowed no profit to the producer, refiner or marketer unless the latter happened to be a jobber with no lia- bilities either as a producer of crude or_a refiner.” Over-production ot crude ofl brought about by flush ylelds in cer- tain Texas, Oklahoma and California fields, Mr. Teagle went on to say, contributed so generously to the pro- duction from older flelds as to mean throughout much of the year a daily surplus in excess of consumption of about 300,000 barrels. In recent ‘weeks, the Powell field has dopped off to well under 50 per cent of its maximum output, and the California wells have evidenced failing gas pressure. “With further gains in_consump- tion probable.” added Mr. Teagle, “it —eeeee normally an active con- production outran fne and a half September, sumption month, consumption _ by’ B illion barrels. m!"l’lce cut has followed price cut in both crude o and gasolins, but it has proved almost impossible to re- strict production, even by pro rating of pipe line runs and purchases, as many producers were without stor- age facilities and unable to finance ;nddltlonll tankage. The above goes to indicate that prices, except in certain locallties, show little prospect of improvement in the immediate future, but the 1924 outlook is not unfavorable for such producers as can keep their oil under ground or can store further stocks. PACKING HOUSE PRODUCTS For the first time since 1920 the packing industry has had a really good year. The improvement affect- ed both the large and smaller con- cerns and it is a testimony to gener- ally good conditions throughout the country that the industry got back on a profitable basis in a period when marketing of live stock was so ex-- ceedingly heavy. i The volume of trade was unusually proad and there has been a greater confidence in evidence in the packing business. Forelgn trade has been fairly active, with England especial- ly a buyer of lard and meats. ports to the continent have been fairly good considering the unfavor- able political developments of the year. | PAINTS . i Paint manufacturers and dealers had a splendid year, due In large part to the tremendous volume of bullding in progress. The activity lin repair and refurnishing work also |was a decided factor and the move toward increased summer and winter resort accommodations made itseif felt. The three largest factors in the industry all were engaged at near capacity and reported most profitable operations for thelr fiscal years which terminated in the autumn. PAPER Paper {8 winding up the year in a period of comparative stability. Demand {s still increasing but not at the rate which obtained in the last two or_ three years. Prices are ai- most double the 1913 level. Mill stocks are not above normal and jobbers' stocks are reported rather below the usual amount. Competition in most grades is keen, especially in the finer papers, and the margins of profits of most manu- facturers are not wide. News print prices seem fairly stable, and large consumers say they do not expect changes in the first quarter of the new year. POTATOES The 1923 potato crop was larg2 In nearly all sections of the country, but not remarkable for quality. In the early part of the season, growers in individual communities made good profits. All the way from Florida to Long Island, fall prices wers ex- cellent, although sputhern Jersey had a crop faflure. In Malne, where much of the crop is controlled by the Maine Potato Exchange, the larger part still is ~(Continued on Nineteenth Pages . | tion Ahead. looks right now as though the coun- try should begin consuming more petroleum than it is producing around the middle of next summer. If ne production does not upset this esti- mate, there should be a4 movement of storage oil into consumption the lat- ter half of the year. There has been a decided 1ift In sentiment apparent in the last fortnight, and so far T leeum: reasn(l;l to think that this new optimism w! not prov 8- by peiy P ® to be jus Sees Banner Year. “Nineteen twenty-four should be 2 bnnfler year for the petroleum indus- try,” declared H. F. Sinclair, chair- man of the Sinclair Consolidated Oil Corporation. “In the last two years eight major flelds have been~ dis- covered or brought to their peak of production. Any two of these fields, ten years ago. would have demora- lized the indusiry. Naturally, produc tion has exceeded the immediate de mand, but the tide began to turn last summer and consumption should soon exceed production Present Price Low. “The American public should realiz that the present price of petroleu products is abnormally low and can- not be permanently maintained. No industry can be expected to continue operation at a loss. It is an eco- romic impossibility. A few companies may be making profits, but the in- dustry as a whole is losing_money, and has been since 1920. This has resulted in a seeming benefit to the consuming public. but in the long run the unprofitable operation of any basic industry cannot be benefical to consumers. “A peculiar aspect of the last two years of ‘depression’ has been that during this period crude ofl consumy tion has actually increased 33 pe cent. This fact in itself gives ample assurance that the industry will be able to climb back to a normal con- dition and earn a reasonable profit.” Good Year in Motors. “It is not easy at this time to make a forecast very far ahead,” declared vt\_ltrvd P, loan, jr., president of the General Motors Corporation, “never- theless I cannot see any fundamental reason why 1924 should not be at least a satisfactory business year, and I can see many reasons why it ought to be an exceedingly good vear. “There is nothing in my judgment.” Mr. Sloan added, “that would be mors constructive than a general recogni- tion on the part of both parties of Secretary Mellon's proposal for tax reduction. 1 do not think any other single thing would inspire as much |cunfldcncé or do as much to stabiliz. business in this country, and it would surely rebound to- the prosperity of all classes. “I do not think European condltions are going to have a great deal of in- fluence. Of course it is hoped that the sltuation will be cleared up and, if it does, it is bound to have a good effect on sentiment in this country. My own impression regarding that situation, as evidenced by yearly visits since the war, is that irrespec- tive of the financial status of the \'argouu governments, the econemic position of the individual is con- tinually improving, and as long as that continues a satisfactory result is sure to work out sooner or later. “Taking it all in all, I am optimistic as to the outlook for 1924, but believa that caution should be exercised and especially large enterprises should watch thelr position carefully. Prob- gbly that pertains at all times, but T elleve it especially aj 1 e fortheoming year> “PPHes to the ‘Wants Tax Reduction. Prosperity for 1924 is assured if Secretary Melion's tax reduction pro- gram is adopted, in the opinion of John W. Prentss, president of ti nvestment Bankers' Assoclal America. e “Secretary Mellon's plan for the reduction of taxes,” Mr. Prentlss said. ¥is one of the most progressive and sensible things that the business interests of the country have had before them for years. The plan is beneficlal to all, injurious to none. It will direct a flow of capital from Gead investments to live industry. It s an insurance against unemplo: ment. It will bring greater pro perity to the farmer, to the laborer, {to the railroad man, to the doctor and to the banker. In short, it will help us all.” Expressing the opinion railroads have adjusted fairly well to live portation Act” Ju ruttschnitt, chairman of the executive committed of the Southern Pacific Rallroad, d clared that “if by mischievous tink- ering with it the politicians do not destroy the progress already made, and do not enact other laws requir- ing new =adjustments by the rail- roads, we beiieve that the end of the railroad problem will have been seen before the end of 1924 Prospects for Crops. “While it is early to make estimates on the crops of 1924, many of which are contineent on conditions that may _prevail until actual harvest' Mr. Kruttschnitt added. “we belleve that conditions are now generally favorable and ond crons can reason- ably ha expected in 1824 Demand will, of course. control prices. The purchasing power of the nations in Furope that furnish our nrinelpal markets is limited by existing con- ditions, but unless they get verv much worse our firmers may hope ffll;‘ prices substantially as now pre- vail. Conseauently, business should be £00d and in satisfactory volume.” Mr. Kruttschnitt sald also that railroads are in a position to render better service next vear because thelr equipment and property is in better condition, that the relations betwean employes’ and_emplovers are better than for many vears, and that the relations of the raflroads to the pub- lic “are more harmonious and co- operative than they have ever been." The vear 1923 wae an exceedingly interesting period in the cooper metal situation in the opinion of Charles Havden. of Havden, Stone & Co., and an officer and director in many of the large conper companfes. This condition resulted, Mr. Hayden sald. from the fact that while pro- duction exceeded the normal pre- war output, the unusually heavy consumption by American manu- facturers, due largely to the enor- mous business in the electrical and automobile Industries, offset the greatly reduced forelgn consumption reeulting from the unsettled condi- tions in Europe. Prospects Abroad “It is hardly to bs expected” Mr. Havden continued. “that there will he sufficient settlement of European af- fairs to warrant the resumntion of any great increase in foreign buving dur- ing the early part of 1924, but T am firmly of the belief that Amerlcan production is not likely to increase. especially at present vrices for the metal. and on the other hand, any diminution in the consumption of copver for the building trades or be- cause of some slight slowine up in certain lries of business which usa a lot of copper In this country, will he more than offset by an increased forelgn demand. One of the few pessimistic state- ments was made by P. A. S. Frank- lin, president of the International Mercantile Marine Co.. on his recen return from a trip abroad. { “I can see no improvement in either the shipping or the general economic situation abroad.” he said. “The Ruhr situation still very serlously affects shipping, because it causes decreases of both travel and freight.” that “the themselves wder the Trans-