New Britain Herald Newspaper, September 28, 1923, Page 18

INESS FORECASTING IS OF RECOGNIZED IMPORTANCE ; : Babson Explains the Me! Which Is Printed Below Twenty years ago & walked into the offes of & young man HBoston sction is followed by an equal reac. tion" it hecame possible to judge com- Danker and resigned the 1ob that was|ing events by our present position— ying him §100 a month. The he im- | and business forecasting was born! mediately offered to do the same work for §12.50 a menth! When from his astonishment he found that' of y thebanker had mosoud;unm you re Thfl. tremendous importance of this discovery and application is apparent that for hundreds s business men hag been the the young man in question proposed | vietims of a treacherous eurrent that to do the same work for eleven other | favored them with prosperity only to | g bankers at $12.50 a month each. The ! turn suddenly and bring deal was made and Roger W lnhuon{ panie upon them became statistician for a dozen Boston | were bullt up ruin and Great businesses largely by luek—only Bankers at a combined income of $180| to be smashed like A house of cards & month. Today he is the most widely | when quoted man on business conditions in | pression America ught by an unexpected de- The economic loss of such an uncertain system was bad enough He collected figures on general bus. | but the human suffering it caused was fness and financial conditions, copied | mueh worse them longhand, and delivered them ustomers, Beng a gradu. daily to hi ate engineer it was natural th Men spent their lives in building & business only to see it car- ried down by a current beyond their he | control. Falling prices mean unem- should try to analyze these figures— | ployment, hunger and suffering. The to chart and study them, They were | history of every depression ha been & part of general business conditions ' written in blood, Now all this was to 1 D4 1908, 1906 1907 1908, 1907 191 - - Babsonchart ;of Business 01911 1912 1913 (19141915 191 16 (1917 1918 (1919 )1920/ 192119221923, Actus! Path of Business thod and Also the Babson Clurt‘; | proft making charter, In fact, the project is so promising that the sev. ers! hundrad acres surround it just outside of Boston is developing into the town of Babson Park,—a future center of informatiop and edusation to the eatire business rid. Colone! John Decreo . zens of Wellesley—recently o it as “the statistical elty." fitting tribute, we thing, to the father of business forecasting The Habsonchart We reproduce, herewith, the Bab. sonchart of American Business Condi. tions for those who may be interested in its econstruction Statisties on the twelve leading barometers of business—building bank transactions ,fallures, laber con- ditions, money conditions, foreign | trade, gold movements and money rates, commodity prie investment tatistics, erop conditio; raliroad éarnings, and social factors, are com. bined to determine the course of the | various lines of the chart, The line X.Y, for instance, that marks the natural growth of America is determined by bank transactions The line which bounds the various areas above and below the X.Y line is & combination of all these barometers It shows the actual path of business It is the areas betwesn these lines that demonstrate Newton's Law and ma scientific forecasting p: You will note that the black above the line marked “B" is ap- proximately equaled In area by the perfod of depression below the line marked “C.”" Likewise “D" s equaled in aera by “F." the great period of war and p inflation is rapid. being offset by the depression area 'G"'~~over 60 per cent of this deflation having been completed. The quickening of business last spring could not last because it got started before the readjustment was finishgd. ‘The chart indicates that business will not boom again until 1925, but that 1924 will be much bet- ter than 1021 or early 1922 because the worst of the depression Is over. There is no way of telling how high the next period of prosperity will take us but as it nears its peak it will be easy to tell just how much readjust- ment must take place. It is exactly Iike horrowing from a bank because business actually borrows from the bank of prosperity. Nobody knows how much you will borrow but when it comes time to pay back, one can NEW BRITAIN DAILY HERALD, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 102, spirit of servies, are pulling the cart, then business improves. Hence, even poor business has its siiver laing,~ it mhkes le see the ervers of pleasure seeking indifference to work wasteful extravagance. All Amer- pess will be better than RI0 HONE{S MEMORY OF VICTIMS OF MOTOR CAR | spectat Service Held in Honor of Dead Which Aroused Great Interest And Support Rio De Janiero, Sept. 28.-—~A spe- eial memorial day for the vietima of automebile aceidents was celebrated in this city recently with such pepular interest and support that very prob- ably it will become an annual event The idea of an automobile vietims' memorial day grew out of a proposal probably made by some wag, to cel brate a “chauffeurs’ day"” .in homage to the powerful labor organization which protects the interests of the au- tomobile dr But owing to the large numbér of automobile accidents, with their toll of killed and maimed, the automobile drivers, lags, ave not beloved by the people. The pub. e protest that was immediately and loudly raised was organized Into a day of homage to the auto drivers' vic- tims, Mass for the souls of the automo- bile vietims was celebrated in the church of 8ao Francisco de Paulo, one of the largest temples in this city, and the crowd that attended, consisting for the most part of relatives and friends of those who had been killed by au- tomobiles, filled the great bullding to overflowing. Wreaths of flowers were spread on the graves of automobile victims and other flowers were placed on some of the “death corners” of streets whef automobile accidents have been fre- quent, All of these ceremonies were viewed with great public interest, and called forth much press comment. Although official statistics concern- ing automoblle accidents have not been published, it is !uliml(fd that an average of five persons are killed or | president of the Werld to Address Forei issionary Group Des M 1a, Bept. 18.—~Bishop Edger T Blake vesident bishop of Paria, France, will addvess the snnual general executive meeting of the Women's Forelgn Misslonary society, to be held here October 15,25, » ing to an BEvelyn Ri Paris of 618,782, which ipeludes auxiliaries 871,108; Yoyng People and Standard Béarers 83,498 King's Heralde 65,00 and Little Light Bearers 75,119, Bishop Blake will give some of his ding the Living | program include Miss Anna Goi Women Christian Temperance Union; Bishop Thomas Nicholson, president of the Anti.Saloon League of America; Prof O. H. Bmith, king, China, and Dr. Y. Y. Teu, secretary of the Chinese Christian assoelation ships frequently have re. Wooden 100 mained In serviee more than yea but a steel ship 15 old' at 30, T —— PERFECTION il Heaters Y] JohnA. Andrews &Co, The Big Furniture Stqre A HAT TO HAT TALK Hello, Connecticut hat! How are you Beckwith Hat? Pretty smart looking felts! You bet. Father sold me— Son sold me ! Both father and son always give service and satisfaction So say the city’s best dressers. Righto! CONNECTICUT HAT CO. Arcade BECKWITH'S 273 Main Street be changed for the businessman could know which way the tide of general business conditions would run and could plan to take advantage of the current instead of trying to run counter to it. The great fundamental forces that govern business, beyond the control of ahy group of men, no longer threatened but could be made to do constructive work. It was not as easy as that for the man who discovered it. His friends and business acquaintances judged him crazy. The idea that anyone could tell what was going to happen in busi- ness, in investments or in the stock market was prosperous! The univer- sities scoffed and the general public jeered. and the business world had been be- set by alternate periods of good times o and bad times since there hadn't been 132 MAIN STREET apy business to prosper or suffer. There might be some connection. Two years' charting and study in the back room of a house in Welles- ley Hills, Massachusetts brought out Just one fact—that each of these in- dividual factors when chartered evi- denced a sort of wave movement. Per- haps Newton's Law of Action-Reac- tion might govern here as it did in physies and mathematics. On the strength of the supposition Roger Babson went to England and gstudied all the writings of the great scientist that were available. He came back convinced—in fact he had found New- ton's own prediction that some day Since then the theories have been men would realize that business and | proved, the scoffers have been con- human relations were governed by | vinced and the business world at large this same fundamental law. has accepted business forecasting as Another year's work and a dozen of | a fact. . these figures on fundamental business Just now, Roger . Babson is busy conditions had been combined into a|building a great educational institu- picture of American business, which |tfon; namely, the Babson Institute evidenced clearly the governing prin- | which is to perpetuate this work. It ciple of Newton's Law. Since “every|is endowed and operated under a non- . injured by automobiles in this city every day. easily figure how much you must pay back. Just so, business inflation must be paid back in deflation, but the coun- try as a whole gets gradually more prosperous as is indicated by the long trend of the X-Y line. A few moments study of the chart will convince you that good business is not wild prosperity, that must be paid back in economic headache, but rather business near the X-Y line of normal growth that is neither ‘“too good to last” nor so bad as to cause suffering and hardship. Normal bus- iness is sound business. We asked Mr. Babson what makes these continuous changes—these ups and downs, He answered, ''Because people try to run counter to the Ten Commandments and the Multiplica- tion Table, Whenever 51 per cent of the people try to ride in the cart and let the rest pull it, then, business be- gins to decline. But when 51 per cent of the people try to ride in the cart and let the rest pull it, then business begins to decline, But when 51 per cent of the people, actuated bp the Rl’ Se Parlor Going Out of Business Sale | The Talk of The Town, the Bargains already secured at this sale. B Here are a few more for tomorrow. They represent but a small |§ number of the money-saving opportunities we will offer. $4.97 | 97| o7} 7| o7 | 7c arlor Police and Firemen’s Leather Lined dou- ble Sole and Rubber Heel Shoe...... Other Stores’ Price $8.50. Men’s Vici Kid Leather Linec!, Rubber TR T A LT B Other Stores’ Price $8.50. Men’s Brown Calf Shoes and Oxfords in O e T _Other Stores’ Price $8.50. Women's Patent Colt Skin Pumps in all Heels, the Suede Combinations ...... Other Stores’ Price $8.50. Women's Black or Log Cabin Suede in High or Military Heels, Beautifully Trimmed for Wonderful Girls .. .. ... 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