Casper Daily Tribune Newspaper, September 19, 1924, Page 4

a? rh © it ly 1s < ° } H.J. ; Browne fJIAMINE threatens the world, The danger year is 1927. at best. It will be a hax year It may be a year of actual starvation. The prediction 1s Herbert Janvrin Browne's, Browne 4s father of the long-range weather fore fast—"a year or more in adyance,” as he expressed > ft in the August edition of Sclentife Atherican. The child ts yet’ in its infancy, butfmany fipst- lass meteorolagists belleve tt certain to grow with @mazing rapidity. In scientific circles men whose #tanding entitles them to the fullest consideration, While perhaps inclined for the most part to await @ fuller test of Browne's theories, at any rate take ‘them seriously, ‘The Weather Bureau of the Department of Agri- culture still speaks skeptically of the long-range forecast, yet does not dismiss {t as an impossibility, and Browne has out-and-out disciples in the ranks ‘of the bureau's personnel. Various other govern- mental departments gladly ald him in his work. WEATHER IN CYCLES World climatic changes travel in cycles and pe- Flods of plenty and periods'of famine, therefore are ‘easy-to predict well in advance of the event through history and readily deciphorable nrehis- foric indications, Browns Freak weather year 78 In his predictions, , even freak centuries are fo new thing, Browne points out. ‘They have oc- curred repeatedly, yell within historical times, pro- t ‘ecting humanity. Nor ‘have all these climatic variations, them many degrees from the norn ally, He believ where they have altered conditions so decidedly as some of al, come gradu- Browne says. there are instances to have driven whole populations out of extensive hreas, or exterminated them; and in each case with: in a period of five years, probably. Browne finds, that the Scandinavians underwent an experlence in the fifth century before Christ; still better evidence that it was repeated about 500 years after Christ, nd quite conclusive evidence that the same thing happened again {n the thirteenth century. for instance, histor ai evigence Further, he finds a lant record of the fact that the thirteenth was a “cold century” in the. Bri Isles. GREENLAND ONCE MILD Again s it is evident that the e nland found a comparative mild } thelr day. They -mentione £0 and 30-foot trees where none now grow more than six feet tall, and even of these not r Morec Norse settled permane tn Greenland ut this time and iater these settlers Gisappeared completely— is one of the world’s mysteries, One theory is that all died during the Breat epic of Black Death which swept much Ages. Another coh Jecture is t mbed to the increasing feverity of the climate. Free her peric swever, Browne agrees, @re res; fe ir tly for epidemics.’ In the higher latitudes, indeed, they do mean killing cold at time t lath t longed r fag os nat ara y ters weakened To such causes Browne e in populations already . attributes the Black Death epidemic which wiped out half of Europe's people. YEAR WITHOUT SUMMEL As recently as 1816 the United States experl- enced whet was known as the “Year Without a Summer’ mentioned by all)American historians. ‘end concerfiing which, adds Browne, “I have-heard many storles from my own two grandfathers. "That year,” he continues, “no crops were raised north of the Ohio and the Potomac, and much far- ther south the yields were. very’ scanty.. ‘There were frost and snow in every spring, summer and fall month as Well a8 in winter. In 1816 ice half en inch thick was formed in the east on July 4. “There are many aigns that 1927° will repeat thesé conditions." Economists have been into this subject somewhat in advance of meteorologists, By taking the price of wheat at different times as their basis for cal- culation, and making allowances for momentary historical conditions, apart from weather cycles, have proved conclusively when there must have been crop shortages of world proportions, Making a start with the Egyptian famine of Joseph's day, described in the Vid Testament, five of these cycles have been charted accurately. HISTORIES JIBE Browne, parenthetically, calls attention to the fact that the great Egyptian famine coincided with a “cold period” throughout the then known por- ons of Europe, as a ahaa by early profane historians. He is of the opinion also that the perlod of the yptian shortage was two instead of seven years, basing his judgment on. weather conditions of the region which prevail to this day and attributing the varidtion to an error on the part of the Old ‘Testament translator, He !s seeRing to gather evi- dence from times still earlier than the Bible ‘writ- ers. throuch a rtudy ef werv ancient Chinas rec ords. But these are detail. Tho point is that the sixth cycle {s about complete, The time has come, ac- cording to the economists’ figures, for another pinch. The pinch fsn't here, however—not quite yet, says Browne, be Browne's explanation {s stmple, The economists based their considerations. eal ther fs a@ little behindhand, have calculations upon purely eco- ‘They failed to take considerations In And nomic have meteorolo, the wea 0 account. Con¢ for world crop failures will begin to elves felt in the southern hemisphere, in the make the if Browne reads the signs aright, in 1926; northern, by the following year, Andq if disaster does come, and at its wo: serious will {t be? 75 PER CENT CROP LOSS “It will amount,” guesses Browne; “to a 75 per cent crop loss throughout the world, There will be spots, here and there, where the yield will be good. In this country there will be crops south of Virginia and Kentucky and on the Pacific slope. The Blaek country probably will do well; it did in 1816, »t probably will be saved by British lon measures, t—how water c¢ to t the shortage be serious enough ise heavy loss of life, especially in lands do pendent on outside food supplies, “In America—no, We shall have enough, by resorting to strict rationing. Yet even here it will will be as bad as was Germany's situation during the worst days of the war. “I am assuming, of course, comes.to worst—as it may. “A;cold year does not necessarily mean constant cold, A couple of killing frosts at critical times artic the summer js ‘sufficleng. for. an sagen son's crop destruction, 4 . “Furthermore, assume three or four severe years covering countries like Scandinavia with deep snow, which melts during summers, or ice caps Uke Greenland. . This: accumulation. has it :own climate effect, chilling: neighboring | waters ‘and Keeping, temperatures low for years after restora tion_of solar normality, WARNED CONGRESS Congress was urged recently to help American agriculture by unloading the country’s surplus farm products on Europe—selling them for almost anything they would bring. that. the worst On this subject Browne was a witness before Senate and House committees. “If we practically throw this food away,” he in- sisted, “we shall go hungry for it later on. “Even the squirrels, the bees and thy ants have the sense to store away. Supplies In times of plenty, against the lean times to come. For God's sake, let us have that much sense, too.” Browne bases his predictions on observation “of the effect of solar heat on oceanic surface tempera- tures.” Primarily, of course, the heat comes from the sun. But it varies. “In discussing the sun,” says enter upon the realm of speculation. “However, we may assume that it is a gaseous body, aflame at the surface, Internally. it is.com- pacted under tremendous pressure to the con- sistency, seemingly, of heavy asphalt tar, Perlodi- cally this material boils to the. surface—sunspots. ‘Ther ave hot hit at first. not-on fire, MWAT INURHKASES “Let a soft coal fire burn jong euvugn anu wpe gins to cool, Then throw on more coal. At first it partly smothers the fire—cools it still more, Presently it blazes up and the heat incréases again, “Just so with the sun. The spots, having ap- peared, work from the direction of the poles to- ward the equator, increasing in intens Finally, as combustion becomes complete, they disappear. “But suppose the boiling up from the sun's in- terlor 1s delayed; through lack of fresh fuel the fire sinks low. When, &t last, the spots do appear, the flames are smothered still farther—for awhile. “Now the oceans, covering five-sevenths of the earth's surface, are our great storehouses of the sun's heat, By their currents the heat of tropical waters is carried to the north and south; by coun. ter currents and pressure colder water flows back to restore the balance, “When the stin’s heat wanes’ the oceans’ cool; when it increases ocean temperatures increase, too. It takes the Atlantic about threé years: to reflect such a variation; the Pacific, a larger body, about three and one-half to four. Many further scientific considerations enter into the calculation of a forecast, but in principle the whole proposition simmers down to this: When the sun’s surface cools and the chill, cold summers, cold epochs ensue on earth. And it 1s a period of cold—a year, or two, or (Copyright, 1924, by } Browne, “we seas turn centuries, even glacial ae maybe more—that Browne foresees now, already beginning and due to reach its maximum three seasons hénce. Fora much longer time than usual the sun went without adequate fresh fuel supplies. Now more is being heaped on, b LOW SOLAR HEAT ‘9 Solar heat was above normal from 1917 up to the-end of 1921) Then {t'fell rapidly until Septem- ber, 1922, to: the lowest point ever recorded since such observations began, and has remained low ever since. Avid what may this result be?’ “Perhaps, Browne answers, “nothing worse than three successive cold, agriculturally unsatis- factory years, culminating in 1927. “At the very worst—and as a mere possibility— an ice @ge, with glaciers extending down, possibly into Canada, and a general forcing of the earth's population much farther south. And the latter possibility—what aggravation of conditions might be expected to bring that about? “A volcanic Perce of the first class,” replies Browne, “‘or several of lesser magnitude, filling the upper alr with volcanic dust, obstructing the pas- eage of the sun's rays and still further reducing the earth's supply of heat.” ~ * This is’no theory of Browne's atcue. It is in- dorsed by scientists generally, though not all of them carry their conclusions quite so far. WHO IS BROWNE? ; Who is this Herbert Janvrin Browne, who has been creating this stir in the ranks of meteorolo- gists lately, with his claims to important dis- coveries In the science of long-range weather fore- casting? Browne was a Washington newspaper man for 20 years: Thoroughly acquainted with all that went on fn the.national capital, he finally set up asa purveyor of confidential information of a governmental na- ture to various business enterprises of wide scope, Which’Hiad thelr own reasons for desiring “inside” knowledge relative to happenings, developments st Teulanoles eatculated to affect their plans 8” Policies! M ‘This led him into wwe swuuy/er wevnvune propiems and the conclusion he presently reached was that all important. human activities centered around thrée considerations, feod, clothing and shelter. “That is to say,’ he explains, “national pros- perity, it seemed to me, depended on the prosperity of agriculture, engaged in food production; of the textile industries, engaged in the production of the things we wear, and of the building trades, which provide us with shelter. “Obviously these tliree industries must discount Weather conditions constantly, in advance. “So, In connection with my work, I was brought Into contact with the government weather service, I was not long in finding that {ts forecasts were fot far enough in advance to be of much value for my purposes, “A farmer, for example, is not greatly benefited by knowing a day or two in advance of a frost which will destroy his crop. NEEDS FUTURE INFORMATION “He needs to now of It at the time he 4 clothing manufacturer profit by ai covering that a season is colder or warmer than he previous reason to expect, after his stock ady on his shelves? How does is alr “If there is to be an open winter, during which A Service, Inc.) No. 59 - sare ‘Artists drecarix based. on hologyehs a builder can push his work, he needs to know It in the early fall, not after the season has arrived. “So, ag the weather department not only was unequipped to furnish such information, but ac- tually was discouraging development, in any such @irection, three years ago I took up the work myself. “I had some advantages at the outset. “One of my grandfathers was an astronomer of considerable note, I had been brought up in an atmosphere of scientific research, “I had some knowledge of astronomy and me- teorology. I happen to be a good deepsea sailor and had more or less acquaintance with ‘ocean: graphy, too. I had the background, in short. “Then I knew many men in important govern- ment posts—for instance, the hydrographic office, the navy and the various observatories—and they gave me many important suggestions and much Valuable te4e-— Reco sss, 2 sod y 4 feel sure I have-the Key ty wie provers of long-distance forecasting and that theiscience is absolutely exact. “A general forecast {s possible as long as threo years ahead. As the tlme shortens it can he mada more and more exact as to details. “For a narrow regional prediction about three or four months Is required and it can he ‘made, at that range, as precise as can be desired—as, for instance, the time and place of the storm which devastated Lorain, O., in June this year. “In the meantime, I admit, my interest in Weather studies has overshadowed my interest in the economic information service I intended it-to supplement. “I might, to be sure, make milligns by using my system to insure the success of a series of specula- tions in grain, for example. “But I'd rather be pointed to as “the man who founded the ecience of-long-distance- forecasting and gave it to the world.” Browne at least has opened a new avente Into an all important question, Whether bis predictions and expectations will.be fulfilled in the success of long-distance fore asting is as yet conjectural—his system is worthy of the greatest consideration, Weather affects everyone and everything, world will ever know too much about the ments, Tho ele- VEN a brief cutback into his. - tory will convince that long be- fore the flood epigrammatists, proverblalists an? others were. busy coining wise saws end bundlés of superstitions about that much abused and universal life preserver of ton- “versation on the rocks—the weather. But, in the ght of modern scien- tific meteorological findings the old verses and rhymes about the weather don't rate much. They have been denounced as so much poppycock, bunk, and hokum. ‘Take the fifteenth day of July and the fifteenth day of December for ex- amples, These have long been unt- versally populaf occasions on which the star gazers and other aspirant weather prophets make predictions about forthcoming weather condb tions sometimes a year ahead. A majority of these forecasts-are based in great stead on the old-time boogies and fears that held the Mid. dle Ages under sway. ‘There are numerous proverbs have ing their origin on the Sinection and change of the wind. MANY IN POEM But thelr value in great measure is only local except when considered in connection with the height and rate of change in the barometer, Possibly such ancient observances like the following are not beyond rea- won: When the smoke g weather is past ‘When the smoke goes east, gude reather comes nets' When the wind's in the south, the rain’s im its mouth; ‘The wind tn the west sults everye oné bes! Then there is the saying which has it that, ‘The farther the sight the nearer the rain.” There may be. some justification for this last statement when it is under- stood that visibility is ieapraved. and sound! travels better on! occasions that immediately precede a stormy day dug to’ the Increased) penyineey, of the atmosphere. Animals hive also come in tor thelr share as natural weather fore- casters, enjoying a good many ex- travagant tributes in such roles. en to this one ‘about the pig? Grumphie smells the weather, An’ Grumphie sees the wun’ He kens when clouds will gather, An’ smoor the blinkin’ sun. Says a well known weather bureau expert: ‘3 “The pig has actually been cfedit- ed with seeing the wind and other animals have been glorified for weather-detecting abilities which they do not possess, “Doubtless, the dampness and change in temperature that commons west, gude ly precedes storms somewhat modify _ the behavior of many animals, but.of the numerous proverbs based on thelr’ actions even the few that have any truth to support them have far greater physiological than meteoro- logical Interest.” Even the bee fell.from glory and landed with a thud on top another broken legend when a muRitudinous hive of stingers down West Virginia way this spring got Its dates mixed up with the premature approach of @ spell of warm weather.” BEES FOOLED * ‘The bee colony acting on instinct, . Probably, had started in to rear some millions of families when along came winter and tricked them into coffins, Millions of tho bees died, And those savants- who based Predictions of an early spring on the hive's un- Seasonal activity, were later forend Then there is the grouuc GG.) 2.0 proved an awful liar this year com. ing out of his legendary hole in most Sections about a month too soon and thereby upsetting another fable about his nose for spring. From weather-beasts we get-down ‘to man with his prophetic corns, rheumatic twinges and even milady’ new marcel, all endowed with more or less unscientific properties as rain detectors and damp weather harbin- gers, Beliefs of such kind are legion and on a par with that favorite chantey: Red sky at night, sallor's delights y at morning, sallor take e they are analogous to'the or less discredited verses which have done duty for cén- turles wherever old salts have gone down to the sea in ships. ng more §