The Bismarck Tribune Newspaper, December 24, 1929, Page 2

2 THE BISMARCK TRIBUNE, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24, 1929 Economic Expert Sees Quickening Business As New Year Proceeds Out of Slow Start, Industry and Trade May Expect Spurt ~ Four Sets of Factors Seen by Colonel L. P. Ayres as He | Coming Economic Trend in United States; Prospects for New Year Cheerful; Hoover Efforts a Big Help Editor's Note—Colonel Leonard P. Ayres, vice president of the Cleveland Trust company of Cleveland, Ohio, is one of the nation’s most noted business stat- ticians and economic experts. In. the following article, written for this newspaper and NEA Service he forecasts business conditions that may be expected in 1930. ses By LEONARD P. AYRES Vice President, The Cleveland Trust Company (Written for The Tribune and NEA Service) Four sets of conditions appear to be of leading importance as factors helping to indicate the kind of bust- . hess which we may expect in 1930. The first is that industry has been slowing down, and notably so in the production of automobiles, and iron and steel and in building construc- tion. The second is that there has been a great fall in stock prices. The third is that interest rates have sud- denly become low, instead of being high; and the fourth is that the ad. ministration at Washington has or. ganized country-wide efforts to sus- tain business activity, and to avoid unemployment. The present prospects are that 1930 ‘will be a year in which general busi- Colonel Ayres’ 2 ‘olonel Ayre’s Forecast for 1930 | 1. Short-term interest rates will | probably have a downward trend as we enter the early months of 1930, ‘hanging to a rising one before the j close of the year, | will probably fall below that of 1929. ably not differ from that of 1929 by | more than 5 per cent. 4. Stock prices in the closing months of 1930 will probably be well above the levels of the closing months of 1929, but still below the recent high levels. 5. The total output of iron and Dae in 1930 will probably be distinct- ly less. 6. It seems unlikely that the cost of living will change much in 1930. 7. Average wholesale prices of non-agricultural commodities in 1930 will probably be less than in 1929, but not by more than 5 per cent. 8. It is likely that there will be more unemployment in the early months of 1930 than in the corre- sponding months of 1929, but with conditions improving as the year ad- | ‘Forecasts for 1930 || 2. Production of cars and trucks 3. Building construction will prob- | ness, and particularly industrial pro- | vances. duction, will make a slow stat, but| 9. Average industrial wage rates will move forward with quickening | will probably not differ by more than pace as summer and autumn come on. 1929. Building construction in 1930 will almost surely be stimulated by the combined effects of the lowered in- terest rates, and the cooperative ef- ‘ime trend of securty prices in 1900 | NeW Baptist Church promises to be a rising onc, and if At Mobridge Opened this turns out to be the case the bad effects of the recent crash of stock Mobridge, 8. D., Dec. 24—C prices will be progressively decreased. Moreover, an advancing stock market has important stimulating effects on general business. It does not seem probable that im- portant dififculties will develop as a result of installment selling. ' All in all, the general prospects for business in 1920 are fairly cheerful, and we are warranted in being rea- sonably optimistic regarding them. Speculation comes out of business slowly, but it comes out of the stock market rapidly. In 1929 speculation has come out of the stock market in a hurry, but by and large we have | people's rooms with two assembly | th no great amount of speculation to|rooms and eight individual class come out of business. We have had | rooms. no competition for labor, no advance in commodity prices, no scarcity of ‘business credit, no’ building-yp of in- |, ventories, and no cat shortage. ‘These are the reasohs why it does not seem probable that the bear mar- ket of 1929 will be followed by any slowing down of business at all com- parable with the old-time business ions. ‘The one previous bear market for stocks which was not followed by a depression came in the war period in 1916 and 1917, when business, in- stead of being over-speculative, was unable to keep up with the extra- demands of the war. It - bear market not ‘allowed by busi- ness depression. Business Is Si_vay " Despite Stock Crash ‘The fact is that business and bank- | Ing in 1929 are almost invineibly | 2 ; Their conditions do not in | the least resemble those that existed dn the pre-war days. _ In the bear markets of the closing Years of the Jast century, and the tarly ones of this, the speculator did worry because the ticker tape a3 HEE nd him any money, and to let him withdraw m funds that he had on i ili worried because the | tig ral be | cepted last night | w York Stock Exchange Values | a secclacdiad Ch la laced sr [| i ‘rhe above chart shows tae trend of New York stock exchange values in the great market of the past few years, climaxed by the recent collapse. “Sut,” reassures U olonct net probable that the bear market of 1929 will be followed by any slewing Gown of business at ali comparanie W ith the old time business depressions.” f Brief Bits o News 77" have been fired within the ast year, i | Brief Bits 0’ News | ee ee eae | wchegigt ted -tbtvcdomeled Hietnevasd yoars tn the federal pouitantinty when i} otoeicatis aio tase ee eee | Be pleaded guilty in federal court frome the Argentine: government on | here to maintaining» an unregistered 8 jo -manufact juor. the wheat crop, showing, the crop for | Twenty others who plended. guilty to the current year is poor. The crop was He see “al entimated at 3,900,000" metric tons, | juljsg, ‘#W Violations were fined or which is nearly 4,500,000 tons les: than last year and 2,000,000 less than the five ar average. BANDIT GETS $130 Minneapolis. — A bandit obti | $150 when he held up 8 Nora Shaver, cashier at the Little Paris beauty shoppe, on the fifth floor of the Baker arcade. Buesch Worthy Patron Of Mobridge’s Masons during the night in connect yesterday's bombing Viceroy win's train outside of New Delhi. Mexico City.—Official announcement ay said General Jose Maria Tapia, chief of the presidential military staff, would be named the northern district of fornin, succeeding General Abelardo Rodrigues, whore resignation was ac- overnor of wer Call- PONY EXPRESS RIDER DIES Herbert, me pony express rider, died yesterday at the age of 83. Born in New York, he came here in 1870. During civil war he served with the 103d York regi- ce and was wounded at Gettys- CALL L ‘OR CASKS Coeur 4’Alene, Idaho.—More defend- ants in the I! iracy trial in- volving the c' lan, Idaho, pre pared to the stand in federal court here today in a short session Laeyronsy | journment for the Christ- mas holida: ‘ sand parri, papal secretary of state, had arisen again, and that there was talk that Eugenio Pacelli, papal nuncio to Berlin and newly created cardinal, would succeed him. RACKETEERS FIRE Bi NG York.—An_ almost four-story brick apart Br was virt this morning by a fire whi believe the work of building eteers, Eleven uncompleted hous: MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY NEW YEAR BISMARCK MOTOR CO. CHRIS BERTSCH, Prop. 514 Main Avenue AS we pause this year in reverence to Him t us--""Peace on Earth, Good who taugh Will Toward Men,” we wish you--- A Most Joyous Christmas, A New Year ot Peace, Prosperity and Happiness. The Entire Force of— Hoskins-Meyer The Home of KFYR Greater Interest In Northwest Lands Shown by Settlers St. Paul, Dec. 24.—Interest in north- ing completed to conduct a series ee Mobridge Insurance Man Gets Promotion i a 8 an z F i t it i Hi i i af 2 4 i i Ht Fi ii IH i is g fi i i i it ? No Christmas for Him: i « meridian of long- of the calendar. this day will be MAY THE JOY OF CHRISTMAS ABIDE WITH YOU EACH ‘AND EVERY. DAY! SEASON'S GREETINGS and GOOD ‘WISHES Webb Brothers GREETINGS With Best Wishes for a Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous °